Valley Weather

Groundhog Day 2012

2012-02-02T07:22:00.001-05:00

Nearly 18,000 people are waiting this morning for Phil's prediction in Pennsylvania. Photo www.visitpa.com/groundhog-day-live-stream

From Phil at 7:25am - shadow seen, six more weeks of winter.

We have made it to Groundhog Day 2012. I love the day, if nothing else it brings everyone into my weather circle for just a few moments. In reality the day goes back to the Festival of Candlemas which simply stated says, if it is sunny on February 2 six more weeks of winter, cloudy, an early spring. Either way as Canadians we win, 6 weeks would be an early spring. Now I know most of us in North America have had very little winter this year. However, as I walked my dog this morning around our ice encrusted neighborhood, I realized our winter has been pretty miserable. We have had bouts of very cold weather, punctuated with freezing rain every week and my yard has been snow covered since Christmas. So not a traditional winter, but winter just the same.

As we wait for predictions from Wiarton, Ontario and Punxsawtawney, Pennsylvania, I like the quote on Phil's accuracy via Inner Circle VP Mike Johnston, "He is not burdened with the necessity to be site specific". I guess we are, and yesterday was one of those days where location was everything. The best we could do in the temperature department in Montreal was -3C. This meant all our precipitation, about 6mm of it, fell as freezing rain. We had lots of ice and accidents to go along with it. In all we ended up with about 10cm of snow and 6mm of rain, but no mild air at all. One of the most difficult forecast situations here in the St. Lawrence Valley is predicting when a warm front will scour out the cold air at the surface. Some days it happens quickly, and others like yesterday, it does not happen at all. You had to head into Vermont and New York for that where Burlington reached 8C (47F). The cold air was just too dense to budge off the valley floor.

Icy morning

2012-02-01T07:19:00.001-05:00

An icy start to the day on L'Ile Perrot (ValleyWX pic)

We are in the middle of a bad dream that never seems to want to end this winter. We have a major weather event underway this morning with freezing rain falling steadily in the city right during the morning commute. The ice has coated everything from cars to trees, and has slowed traffic to a crawl and closed schools.

To start, a freezing rain warning is in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. They have also been extended in the form of winter weather advisories for northeast New York and the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley. We managed around 9cm of snow yesterday in Montreal before it changed to freezing rain overnight, with about 2-5mm of ice forecast. The cold air remains well entrenched in the valley location with areas south of us already above freezing, nearly record setting. Here on L'Ile Perrot I am showing -5C, while in Burlington, Vermont it is plus 7C (46F) and 8C (48F) in Toronto. A warm front remains draped to the south of Montreal with very warm air to the south and cold air trapped to the north of the front. It may lift north of the region by late morning with precipitation tapering off. If we are lucky here in the city, the temperature may climb to plus 1C. The weather has resulted in the closure of numerous schools north of the city, delayed air travel at Trudeau and closed Highway 15 on the South Shore due to a major accident at this time.

Freezing Rain Warning...again

2012-01-31T08:57:00.003-05:00

This will be my second attempt to write this entry as the first one was eaten by my dog, I mean a cyber gremlin.

Environment Canada has posted a freezing rain warning once again for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario including the Ottawa Valley. Low pressure over northern Minnesota, will move across the Great Lakes and along the New York/Vermont/Quebec border on Wednesday. Stretching from the low into central New York State is a very slow moving, elongated warm front separating very warm air over southern New York and Ontario to the cold air here in the St. Lawrence Valley. The warm front will slowly lift towards the border and then stall out over the next 36 hours while the low pressure passes just south of Montreal. Snow mixed with freezing rain will affect both Montreal and Ottawa with a general 5-10cm of snow and perhaps 2 to 10mm of freezing rain starting this morning and lasting intermittently until late Wednesday. The greatest risk of freezing rain will be in the valley locations. Temperatures are chilly this morning in Montreal around –10C with a northeast wind, and will very slowly rise to around –2C by Wednesday. South of the front in places like Burlington, Plattsburgh and Toronto temperatures are already near 0C and will soar to around plus 7 or 8C by midday on Wednesday.

Another clipper on the way

2012-01-30T07:22:00.000-05:00

From CTV.ca - snow and blowing snow Saturday night in the GTA.

There is so much ice in my neighbourhood this winter. On Friday we had about 7cm of snow followed by 13mm of rain, all that froze up overnight. I live on the shady side of the street so all the rain froze on my driveway as the temperature sat at the 1C mark most of the day. I was left with about 2 to 3 inches of ice, all the salt in the world is not helping, and so goes the winter of 2011-2012. As mentioned last week we have been plagued with system after system bringing warm air into Montreal. On the weekend we had another clipper system move from the Prairies across Ontario and just south of Montreal. The system was moisture starved with just a few flurries and showers for Montreal but around the Great Lakes numerous snow squalls made travel poor at times. Snow squalls developed across southwest Ontario including Toronto on Saturday and into western New York and the southwest St. Lawrence Valley on Sunday. One component of the low that did affect Montreal was the strong winds. Warnings were posted Saturday night for the city and winds gusted to 76km/h at Trudeau just after midnight, and 90km/h at St Hubert. Sunday was breezy but fair.

A new week begins with the same old forecast, another clipper. Today high pressure will dominate the region with sunny skies and seasonable highs around -6C. We are currently at -10C on L'Ile Perrot with a light west wind making it feel about -13C. Clouds will increase tonight as low pressure and associated warm front move towards Ontario and Quebec. Snow should start overnight in Ottawa and early tomorrow in Montreal and continue most of the day with about 5cm to perhaps as much as 10cm north of the city on Tuesday. The precipitation will mix with freezing rain and eventually rain late in the day as temperatures push to the freezing point and well above by Wednesday. Temperatures will be about -5C on Tuesday but as warm as plus 5C (41F) by Wednesday. The whole mess will freeze up again by Groundhog Day Thursday as temperatures tumble back below freezing. Get the salt ready!

Freezing Rain Warning

2012-01-27T07:15:00.001-05:00

Top: Plowing the ice and snow off St. Charles in Kirkland this morning. ValleyWX
Radar from 7am this morning, a familiar scene this winter in Montreal with widespread freezing rain.

9am: the warning has now expired for Montreal as it is above freezing at 1C.

It what has become a typical event in Montreal, the snow has changed to freezing rain this morning. Not one storm this winter has been an all snow event for southern Quebec. Each system has either started as snow or ended as snow, but has thrown everything at us in between including thunder. This morning is no exception as deepening low pressure moves along the international border just south of Montreal towards Maine by this evening. A wide swath of precipitation is affecting the city with about 2 to as much as 5cm of snow overnight. The snow has since changed to a steady freezing rain with the mercury edging up to the freezing point. The freezing rain should change to rain shortly south of the St. Lawrence River but stay as frozen precipitation until at least noon north and west of Montreal and especially in the Ottawa Valley. Freezing rain warnings are posted region wide, with as much as 10mm of ice expected. They have forced cancellation of all school buses across eastern Ontario, essentially giving students a snow day. (My daughter will be happy!)

As the system moves to our east strong west to southwest winds will develop and gust to 70km/h. The rain will taper off to a few flurries by late in the day. Temperatures will edge up to plus 3C today before falling back to 0C tonight. Late on Saturday a clipper type system will affect southern and eastern Ontario into southern Quebec with another shot of light snow and gusty winds by late in the day. Temperatures will remain above normal for the weekend.

If your travels today take you south or west expect a mix of rain and freezing rain with conditions gradually improving this afternoon. However north and east of Montreal it will be a nasty day with snow and freezing rain and very strong winds causing blowing snow. Travel is not advised towards Quebec City and points north and east. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for those regions with as much as 25cm forecast for Quebec City.

Winter Storm Warning

2012-01-26T09:54:00.001-05:00

This will be brief for the moment with a more detailed update later today. A potent low pressure area is forecast to move out of the Mississippi Valley and across New England on Friday. A large area of precipitation will begin after midnight and last into late Friday across all of southern Quebec. At this time it looks like a snow to freezing rain event with the potential for up to 10cm of snow and 10mm of ice for Montreal and points south, over 15cm of snow north. For this reason weather warnings have been hoisted across the region including southern Quebec and New England. Eastern Ontario has only issued a special weather statement at this time. Snow, sleet and freezing rain will be steady at times and driven around by 40-70km/h winds. Travel will become difficult overnight and early Friday. I will post more later today.

Back to winter...for a day

2012-01-25T07:26:00.004-05:00

I guess I need to come to terms with the fact that it is just going to be this kind of a winter. I have never been a fan of the up and down temperature trends, which creates lots of icy, crunchy snow, which is useless to everyone. The sidewalks and residential streets have been in a constant state of slippery since Christmas. Sadly this trend will continue, after yesterday's warm high of 5C at the airport, 6C at my home, the temperature sits at -4C this morning with a very cold northwest wind up to 45km/h. It was a brisk walk this morning with the dog after the spring warmth of Tuesday, wind chill readings are in the minus teens. What melted yesterday has, you guessed it, frozen this morning. Our high for the day has been reached already with temperatures falling to -7C by late afternoon and -13C overnight. Skies will try to clear as weak high pressure nudges in from the west. Skies will remain fair on Thursday before clouds increase ahead of our next storm system on Friday.

Above: Texas has been beyond parched over the past year, but it is finally raining this morning. The problem is too much all at once with flooding reported. This storm will bring us snow by Friday.

Low pressure currently giving flooding rain to parched Texas will lift into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and across New England on Friday. Depending on which computer model you like, the storm will either give snow or rain. Environment Canada has been flip flopping on the forecast for the last 36 hours or so. It is a difficult call as well with so much warm air moving north with the storm. It looks like perhaps a similar event to most storms this winter, a mix of snow and freezing rain to start changing over to rain by Friday here in the south. We will have to wait and see with later model runs as to the type and quantity of precipitation expected here in southern Quebec, but Friday looks unsettled.

Environment Canada has posted a special weather statement regarding this potential storm. You can read it HERE.

Still mild in Montreal

2012-01-24T08:36:00.003-05:00

Deep low pressure remains north of the St. Lawrence Valley this morning with mild air in place in Montreal. We are well above normal at 3C this morning and L'Ile Perrot was as warm as 6C overnight (43F). Needless to say lots of melting is occurring, at least in the city. There remains plenty of icy spots around in residential areas and many parking lots. Ice was a problem also this morning north of Montreal across the Laurentians where may schools are closed for the day. The weather will slowly improve today with dropping temperatures to around 0C by days end and perhaps a few flurries or snow showers. Winds will be gusty out of the west, but no real cold air is on the horizon. It will drop to -6C tonight and remain there on Wednesday, but that is normal for late January. The next threat for precipitation will occur overnight Thursday and early Friday.

Above: Storm damage in Alabama on Monday (The Birmingham News)

Yesterday's storm had a nasty cold front that brought a rare January round of severe weather to the southern US. Alabama was particularly hard hit once again with over 200 homes destroyed, 100 injuries and 2 fatalities. Every county in the state is under a disaster declaration for storm damage. The storm that hit Clay, Alabama in the wee hours of the morning was an EF-3 according to the National Weather Service, very strong at any time - let alone at night in January.

Light freezing rain possible

2012-01-23T07:26:00.003-05:00

Environment Canada has hoisted freezing rain warnings once again as low pressure and a warm front approach Quebec from the southwest US. The warnings are for up to 5mm of freezing rain but are for areas north of Montreal. The southwest portion of the province along with Montreal is excluded from the advisory but we will have to watch that carefully as the day progresses. The storm is forecast to pass well to our north and west leaving the city in the mild air. The problem will be the light northeast winds, as always, at the surface of the St. Lawrence Valley. This morning for example Montreal is -7C while Burlington, Vermont is -2C. The onset of precipitation should be this afternoon, so hopefully the surface temperatures will have warmed by then.

Regardless of the temperature, most parking lots and sidewalks are icy already so any liquid precipitation on top will only make it more slick. Once the warmer air moves in on gusty southwest winds to 60km/h this evening, the temperature will surge overnight to a mild plus 5C (41F). It will cool only slightly on Tuesday with the passage of a cold front down to the 0C mark. This cold font has lots of energy with it and is producing severe weather and even tornadoes across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we could have a rumble or two of thunder this evening in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec as the front races through. High pressure will build into the region for Wednesday with seasonable highs just below freezing before another storm system brings a chance for light snow by late Thursday.

As mentioned severe weather is moving across the south. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia have had severe thunderstorms and tornadoes overnight with damage and injuries reported. A tornado watch remains posted for a portion of the area early this morning. You can view some video of the overnight storms HERE.

Weekend Update

2012-01-20T07:29:00.001-05:00

Above & Below: Numerous wild temperature fluctuations this month has slowed snow clearing in the region and created icy roads and sidewalks. (ValleyWX Pic)

Temperatures are falling this morning after the passage of a cold front in the wee hours overnight. We started the night around -3C and are currently at -10C. I don't expect the temperature to warm any today, and it may even fall. Winds are gusty as well producing wind chill values close to -20C in Montreal. That cold front had some nasty snow squalls with it yesterday producing treacherous driving conditions in eastern Ontario. There were numerous accidents with visibility rapidly below 1km at times. The snow accumulated around 5cm in most areas with as much as 15cm south of the border in western New York. However the front went across L' Ile Perrot dry. There were just a few flurries overnight. Such is the case with convective activity, like summer thunderstorms once the source of heat and moisture were taken away (Lake Ontario/daylight) the front fizzled out.

The weekend looks to be much the same way the entire winter has been, variable skies, temperatures, winds and a little snow for good measure. We start today in Montreal with dropping temperatures most of the day down to around -18C or so by midnight. Then it will warm slightly overnight as clouds increase and perhaps a little light snow. Low pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and into southern New England. I think it will be too far south to give us any appreciable snow. That will be followed by another weak disturbance late Saturday and yest another for Monday. In between look for partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cold to start but warm to well above normal again early next week. We could be looking at another snow to rain event Monday with more freezing rain possible.

Quick burst of snow today

2012-01-19T07:35:00.003-05:00

Strong winds, over 100km/h, swept Montreal yesterday cutting power ot over 30,000 homes in the metro region. (Radio-Canada)

It is another cold morning in Montreal with -21C here on L'Ile Perrot and -23C at St-Anne-de-Bellevue on the west island. The airport for some reason seems to be in a warmer bubble showing -15C. Arctic high pressure has at least brought us calm winds after yesterday's wind storm. Winds gusted as high as 107km/h in Montreal. Power was out to over 80,000 homes in the province but Hydro Quebec has since restored most of that by last evening with the exception of about 10,000 mostly in metro Montreal. People I spoke with yesterday told me how the wind was so strong it woke them up shaking their homes and moving frozen patio furniture off decks and into yards.

We have another quick moving windy system on the way over the next 12 hours or so, but it will be a very fast and rather weak storm. It will however bring a wind shift and perhaps a few snow showers to the area. Clouds will increase today with temperatures warming to -10C. Some snow shower activity and gusty winds to 50km/h will develop this evening. If you are travelling the 401 to Toronto late today and this evening there could be some brief bursts of heavy snow and blowing snow, especially from Brockville to Trenton.

Accumulations generally will be around 2 or 3cm, but as much as 8-15cm could fall along the northeast shore of Lake Ontario and as far northeast as Brockville along the St. Lawrence Valley. As a matter of fact a Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow is posted for Jefferson County, NY along Interstate 81, this includes Watertown, New York and the Thousand Islands region. Eastern Ontario and southern Quebec area will see a brief period of snow ending by midnight. Winds will shift back to the northwest overnight up to 40km/h and temperatures will tumble again into the minus teens and staying there on Friday. Windchill values once again will be close to -20C on Friday.

Wild weather ride

2012-01-18T07:21:00.001-05:00

The numbers tell it all at Trudeau Airport, wild pressure fall and rise, strong winds and roller coaster temperatures.

What a night that was as strong low pressure passed very close to Montreal. The night started damp and chilly with freezing rain. That was followed by a wind shift to the west and an ever so brief wedge of warm air pushing into southern Quebec. The mercury went from minus 1C at 11pm to plus 4C at 1am (5C at my house) and then the tumble began. That brings us to a few hours later at 7am with a temperature of-10C ( -11C at my house) and wind chill reading in the minus 20's. Add to that fierce winds overnight that kept Montreal fire fighters very busy with downed tree limbs, exploding transformers and dislodged temp parking garages. Winds gusted to 100km/h at Trudeau Airport at 1am and 96km/h at 2am. I recorded a peak gust of 57km/h but I know that my anemometer is way too close to the house. As soon as the weather warms I will be moving it to a new location. The winds have cut power to close to 80,000 homes in Quebec, 12,000 on the Island of Montreal. Numerous schools north of the city are closed today.

Montreal had close to 12mm of precipitation yesterday which translated into about 10cm of snow and ice mixed together and a little rain to end the event. The wind warning has been allowed to expire for southern Quebec, but it will remain blustery and cold all day with a few flurries. Winds will continue in the 30 to 60km/h range most of the day.

High Wind Warning

2012-01-17T21:48:00.000-05:00

Deep low pressure near Kingston tonight is expected to pass near Kemptvile and just north of Montreal in the next few hours. The central pressure was 985mb with this storm and falling and I currently show 987mb here at my home on L'Ile Perrot. Freezing rain is currently falling here, but expect that to briefly change to rain before tapering off to flurries. We had between 5 and 10cm of snow in Montreal today, that combined with the rain is making for very icy roads. Numerous cancellations and delays have been reported at both Trudeau and Ottawa International Airports. As the low pressure passes by Montreal around midnight, strong winds will develop out of the west. A look at observations across southern and eastern Ontario is showing winds gusting to close to 70km/h in Toronto and Kingston and 80km/h along the shoreline of Lake Erie. High wind warnings are in effect for the entire St. Lawrence Valley with winds expected between 50 and 80km/h. They will diminish to 30 to 50km/h on Wednesday. Temperatures are currently at -1C and will briefly go above freezing before dropping down to -10C by morning. Needless to say that combined with the strong winds and the ice and snow will create dangerous driving overnight and early Wednesday.

Winter Storm Warning

2012-01-17T07:29:00.001-05:00

We have another rather difficult forecast as deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes is forecast to move towards Ottawa and east across southern Quebec today and tonight. A warm front remains draped over the border region keeping warm air to our south and cold air at the surface in the St. Lawrence Valley. This is a very similar setup to last week. What this means weather wise is a whole mix of precipitation ranging from snow to sleet to freezing rain and just some old plain rain, especially south of Montreal toward the US border. The first batch of precip brought a trace of snow to Montreal overnight along with some patchy freezing rain. It was enough to slow the morning commute. The next batch will lift out of southern Ontario and across the region by afternoon. Winter storm warnings are in effect for all of eastern Ontario as well as southern and central Quebec. The mix will accumulate 10-15cm across the southern regions with 15-25cm further north. Ottawa can expect about 20cm with Montreal closer to 10cm. South of the St. Lawrence, rain and mixed precipitation will limit amounts to under 5cm, the same is true for the GTA where temperatures are already well above freezing at 4C, rain with warm highs near 8C is forecast today.

The other factor with this strengthening storm will be an increase in surface winds. Winds are forecast out of the northeast at 20 to 40km/h most of the day here in Montreal, keeping the valley cold enough for snow and freezing rain. They will back to the northwest tonight and increase to between 50 and 80km/h. Temperatures will slowly warm from where they are now at -8C, up to 0C and perhaps a degree or two above overnight and then drop during the day on Wednesday as colder air moves in behind the storm with some flurries as well.

More snow and freezing rain

2012-01-16T07:40:00.000-05:00

Reality has settled in across most of Canada today as the cold continues in the east and returns to the west. It was a frigid 24 hours here in Montreal with the mercury bottoming out at -26C on Ile Perrot yesterday morning. As I write we just dropped to -24C. It is "warmer" downtown and at the airport at -18C. Winds are not a factor today as they were most of the day yesterday. They are however expected to pick up once again today as low pressure approaches from the US. Meanwhile it is just plain cold in Alberta and the prairies as a piece of that arctic air affecting Alaska begins to settle south. Edmonton is at -26C this morning, and that is it folks. The temperature will actually stay steady or fall today to lows around -31C. The entire week looks cold.

Here in southern Quebec and Ontario we are looking for an increase in southwest winds today ahead of a storm gathering strength in the US Midwest. This system will move down the St. Lawrence Valley and very near Montreal tomorrow. The best forecast at this time calls for snow to start overnight and accumulate 5 to 10cm in Montreal and Ottawa before changing to freezing rain and eventually rain south of the St. Lawrence on Tuesday. There is still some conflict between computer models on the exact track of the low, and that as we know will affect precipitation type and intensity. If I was a betting man, I would lean towards more snow than rain. In any event all precip will end as a period of snow overnight Tuesday, and it will turn blustery and much colder again. At this time we only have a special weather statement out from Environment Canada. It is likely that some type of warning will be issued for a portion of our region. I will update this as the information become available.

Storm Update

2012-01-13T20:44:00.001-05:00

Just some of the 25cm of snow that fell in the last 24 hours here in west end Montreal. (ValleyWX Pic)

At 8pm temperatures have started falling across eastern Ontario and Quebec as low pressure passes directly to our south. The mercury has dropped to -8C in Ottawa and -4C in Montreal. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect on the US side of the border from upstate New York into Vermont and on our side of the border in the Eastern Townships. Elsewhere they have been allowed to expire.

The storm had a central pressure of 980mb, and I recorded 981mb around 1pm this afternoon here on Ile Perrot. The intense system produced a wide variety of precipitation across the entire region and is still affecting us tonight. Snow has accumulated close to 25cm (10 inches) here in Montreal and it continues to fall. Winds have increased this evening to over 40km/h producing considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially off island. The snow should taper off overnight with totals coming ever so close to 30cm. In one storm we have nearly equalled the snowfall for the entire season. The storm also produced freezing rain with around 10mm of ice here in Montreal and much more to our southwest. The heavy freezing rain in the southern St. Lawrence Valley, combined with the heavy snow today, brought down tree limbs onto power lines. At one point today another 9000 Hydro customers in Brockville were plunged back into the dark. Over 20,000 homes and businesses in eastern Ontario were without power at one point yesterday. Numerous schools and buses were cancelled both days, and air travel was severely impacted today with a number of flight cancellations here at Trudeau Airport. Scores of accidents occurred in both provinces including a fatal collision in south shore Ste. Julie this morning. Roads will remain snow covered and visibility low tonight.

Winter Storm Warning

2012-01-13T12:39:00.004-05:00

12:00pm: Strong low pressure continues to slowly move down the St. Lawrence Valley towards Quebec at noon. Both Environment Canada and the National Weather Service have issued Winter Storm Warnings for all of the St Lawrence Valley of eastern Ontario and northern New York. Heavy snow has developed in the area and is falling at the rate of 1 inch per hour. There has even been reports of thunder with the snow. I see no reason why this heavy snow will not move into southwest Quebec this afternoon. Look for steady snow and blowing snow all day with accumulations easily reaching 15cm or more. Temperatures will begin to drop as well on increasing northwest winds. Travel is and will continue to be very poor into the overnight hours.

Storm Update

2012-01-13T10:20:00.001-05:00

10am: Freezing rain was falling in Montreal at 10am, but it remains cold at -5C. Even with the heat in my car during the morning commute, the ice was freezing on my windows. Freezing rain will change to snow and become heavy at times late this morning along with areas of blowing snow.

Another wild weather day

2012-01-13T07:12:00.004-05:00

Freezing Rain Warning this morning for Montreal and southern Quebec.

More snow and freezing rain fell on Montreal overnight raising our storm total to around 16cm. Some bursts of snow overnight allowed visibility to drop and the snow to accumulate rather quickly. It remains cold in Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley as compared to regions south of us. A warm front remains draped over the border keeping the warm air at the surface to our south, but allowing it to stream in aloft, thus the freezing rain. This morning Montreal is -6C while Burlington, Vermont and Plattsburgh are above freezing.

Today will feature a deep upper low moving across the region very close to Montreal. Freezing rain warnings have been posted again for southern Quebec, I really thought the weather warning covered it nicely, but they are the experts. In any event, warning or not that storm will pass to our northeast today and drag a potent cold front across the area. If you have any mixed precipitation in your region it will become all snow by noon and it could be heavy at times before tapering off late tonight. A total of 5cm in the Ottawa Valley with up to 15cm along the St. Lawrence River is likely by tonight. Winds will increase out of the northwest and gust to 60km/h creating widespread blowing snow later today and creating dangerous travel.

Temperatures at -5C currently will nudge close to 0C by mid-morning, before dropping rapidly to -15C overnight and staying there on Saturday.

Kingston, ON - Michael Lea The Whig-Standard

Yesterday's storm dumped as much as 15mm of freezing rain between Kingston and Prescott, Ontario and on the US side between Ogdensburg and Watertown, NY. The ice brought down tree branches on power lines, caused numerous accidents along the 401 and at one time cut power to almost 20,000 homes in Ontario. It was a brief reminder of the strength and danger of ice and the 1998 ice storm.

Storm 2 on the way

2012-01-12T21:26:00.002-05:00

Snow clearing in Ottawa today (Ottawa Citizen)

Low pressure tonight near Cape Cod was responsible for the largest snowfall of the season here in Montreal. Snow started early this morning and has since tapered off to just a few flurries. Around 10 to 12cm of snow fell on Montreal along with gusty winds up to 50km/h. Roads were snow covered in the metro region and traffic moved very slowly. While a freezing rain warning was posted for Montreal, most of the icy precipitation remained southwest of the city along the southern St. Lawrence Valley. Ice accumulated up to 1/2 inch in places knocking down trees and some power lines from Brockville to Kingston. The ice caused havoc on the roads on both sides of the border with travel not advised for a period in Jefferson, Franklin and St. Lawrence Counties in New York. In Ontario numerous accidents forced the closure of the 401 east of Kingston at Joyceville Road.

At this time a winter weather advisory remains posted for southwest Quebec, northern New York and Vermont excluding the Champlain Valley for more snow, freezing rain and gusty winds starting overnight and lasting until late in the evening on Friday. The second storm, currently over Lake Huron, will slide across southern Quebec on Friday while deepening. Strong winds up to 60km/h from the northwest will cause blowing snow Friday across southern Quebec and usher in much colder air. The temperature will rise to 0C overnight and then fall to -11C by late Friday night. Another 10-15cm of snow is likely across portions of the region with 5-10cm in Montreal and Ottawa. More freezing rain is falling tonight in Ontario including Ottawa, as a result travel remains tricky.

Freezing Rain Warning

2012-01-12T12:39:00.003-05:00

Environment Canada has extended freezing rain warnings into southern Quebec including Montreal. A wide band of moderate freezing rain has been affecting the Kingston to Cornwall area and is now moving into our region. The band has a history of rapidly depositing 10 to 15mm of ice. Ice storm warnings are also in effect for the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley. The official statement from the NWS in Burlington can be found HERE. Travel will be very slow in all regions this afternoon. Highway 401 has been closed in sections due to numerous accidents. Also some power outages have been reported in eastern Ontario.

Snow and freezing rain

2012-01-12T07:15:00.001-05:00

AccuWeather.com

The forecast seems on track this morning as twin low pressure areas one along the east coast of the US and the other over the Ohio Valley begin to influence our weather. Light snow is spreading north into Montreal at 7am with a mix of snow and freezing rain in the 401 corridor to Kingston and rain southwest of there. Heavier snow is showing on radar south of the border along I-87 between Albany and Plattsburgh and moving north. Snow will mix with sleet and could be steady at times in southern Quebec today with accumulations of 5-10cm. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast at 30 to 50km/h. Winds are already gusting up to 40km/h at Trudeau Airport. Precipitation will taper off this evening to light freezing drizzle as the first storm system lifts northeast into Atlantic Canada. A wedge of warmer air will push temperatures up to 0C overnight in Montreal but they will begin to fall rapidly on Friday to the coldest readings this winter by Sunday morning, around -20C.

Meanwhile the main low pressure center over the Great Lakes will moves east overnight and across southern Quebec and New England on Friday. It will bring strong winds and falling temperatures with a mix of rain and snow. When all is said and done between the two systems it looks like 15cm of snow will have fallen in Montreal and Ottawa along with some liquid precipitation in the form of freezing rain or rain across extreme southern Quebec. It will be clear and cold for the weekend into Monday before another storm brings us a chance of snow on Tuesday.

Storm update

2012-01-11T22:01:00.000-05:00

Two storms are moving into our region with snow and freezing rain. NOAA Image

A series of low pressure areas will affect southern Quebec and Ontario beginning overnight and lasting through Friday evening. Snow will arrive in southern Quebec by the end of the morning commute and will last until late in the day. It will mix at times with sleet or freezing rain especially southwest of the city towards the Ontario border. Gusty northeast winds will keep temperatures rather chilly in Montreal and blow around any snow that falls. At this point it looks like a general 5-10cm (2-4 inch) snowfall for Montreal and points south and east with up to 15cm south of the border in Vermont. Southwest of Montreal across eastern Ontario freezing rain will mix in and dominate the precipitation type from about Prescott towards Kingston. A substantial amount of ice may accumulate in those regions. Temperatures will remain steady around -10C tonight in Montreal. Roads will become snow covered and icy on Thursday, and winds will reduce visibility at times. Currently no warnings are in effect for Montreal but freezing rain warnings have been posted for Ontario from east of the GTA to Leeds and Grenville County. South of the border a winter weather advisory is in effect for Vermont and New York.

That deals with low pressure one. A second more intense system will move from Ohio down the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday passing very close to Montreal. We are looking at a decent amount of precipitation likely requiring warnings. That system will usher in very cold air changing any mixed precipitation to snow in Ontario and Quebec along with strong winds and dropping temperatures.

First winter storm?

2012-01-11T07:28:00.000-05:00

We have used today's headline more than once this winter, but it appears we may be heading for some true winter weather. As mentioned yesterday, up to this point in the season, the largest single snow event has been around 8cm for Montreal. We are looking at at least that into Thursday evening. We will start with sunny skies today and cold temperatures as arctic high pressure crests over the region. Ile Perrot is -14C this morning with a light northerly breeze making it feel more like -18C. Clouds will be on the increase late today as a complex area of low pressure approaches Ontario and Quebec from the south and west. By Friday morning we may be dealing with at least three separate area of low pressure. They will combine to bring us two separate precipitation events over a 48 hour period. Snow will overspread the area from south to north on Thursday with highest amount, up to 10cm along the US border, closer to 5cm by Thursday evening for Montreal. The snow will be accompanied by a brisk northeast breeze causing some blowing snow. A break in the action late Thursday before a second round of more significant snow affects the entire region on Friday. Amounts are a little hard to pinpoint at this time, but at least 10cm should fall in Quebec and eastern Ontario and perhaps more. At this time the only warnings in place are south of the border across New England and New York for a mix of snow and freezing rain Thursday. I expect warnings or advisories will be needed for a portion of Ontario and Quebec by later today or Thursday.

TRAVELLING
Basically in short look for snow covered roads beginning Thursday and lasting through Friday in all our regions along with gusty winds and blowing snow. Further south and west freezing rain will mix in, with just plain rain for Toronto. On Friday it will snow in all areas. Temperatures will drop Friday with likely the coldest night of the winter on Saturday night. Looking ahead more of the same type of weather is expected for week, just in case you thought winter was over, or never coming! This is very much a developing weather event with lots of uncertainty so watch for updates here and via twitter.

Record highs, 18 feet of snow

2012-01-10T07:32:00.000-05:00

Roads were decent at the time but that did not stop this truck from sliding off I-94 in Monticello, Minnesota and into a creek. (KARE)

There is weather going on across North America, even if ours continues to be rather quiet for January. Yesterday heavy rain and thunderstorms produced flash flooding and isolated tornadoes across southeast Texas and western Louisiana. The storms produced a record rainfall of between 4 and 5 inches across the Houston metro area. meanwhile on the backside of the storm in Midland, Texas, 7 inches of snow fell bring their seasonal total to over 19 inches, which by the way is more than Buffalo, New York and Montreal.

More impressive snows have been falling across southern coastal Alaska including the small fishing village of Cordova, where 18 feet has fallen since Christmas Day (SEE Image below and click on map). A state of emergency is now in effect and the National Guard has been mobilized to help clear the roads and remove snow from the roofs of buildings. The weight of the snow has already collapsed some buildings. While all this was taking place the mercury continued its impressive show across western Canada. Nearly 30 record highs were set yesterday across Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta including 7.8C at Edmonton International, 10.3C downtown Edmonton, 8.8C at Assiniboia, SK, the third record this month, and 13.2C at Maple Creek, SK. A cooling trend is on the way but still above normal.

In Montreal, a weak clipper system has given us some mixed rain and snow overnight and rather mild temperatures. I am showing 1C here on Ile Perrot at 7am and that will be our high today. Temperatures will slowly drop under clearing skies today with increasing northwest winds. It will be chilly tonight, especially in areas with snow cover with lows in the city down to -16C. Wednesday will be sunny with increasing clouds and northeast winds by late in the day. That will set the stage for a complex low pressure area with onc center over the Gulf Sates and the other approaching us from the Great Lakes. The two will send enough moisture into the St. Lawrence Valley to produce a period of steady snow on Thursday and Friday. The timing and quantity is still up in the air at this point, but it will be enough to shovel, and could exceed 10cm, which would make it the biggest snowfall this season. I will update the potential snow event late today.

Winter returns?

2012-01-09T07:34:00.001-05:00

More ice than snow this winter in Montreal. Saturday crews salted and sanded all day. ValleyWX pic

Winter will slowly start to make a return across most of the country over the next two weeks. Those of you who have been experiencing record highs, such as Alberta, will begin to cool down as early as this week. Here in Montreal, it hasn't exactly been shorts and sandals weather, but it has been an easy winter so far. It looks like colder air and the likelihood a few more storms will greet us starting next week. In the near term a few weak weather systems will bring southern Quebec light snow and seasonable temperatures through Wednesday. The nights will be chilly with the days rather mild near the freezing point. On Thursday, a stronger low pressure will approach Quebec from the southern US and bring with it another surge of moisture and mild air. We may be looking at mixed precipitation for both Thursday and Friday. By the weekend temperatures will cool down noticeably and skies will clear out.

Just how warm has this winter been? Here in Montreal our December was one of the warmest on record with and average temperature of -2.6C. The normal is -6.3C. We have had only about 35cm of snow this winter, most of it falling in small amounts, the biggest storm being 8cm back on November 23. Yesterday to add to the hundreds of record highs established in the past week across the country, six more were broken in Alberta and one in Saskatchewan. The warmest, Whitecourt, Alberta, reached 10.8C breaking a record (9.4C) that had held since 1943.

Pattern changes on the way

2012-01-08T19:36:00.001-05:00

While it was mild in Ontario and New York yesterday, between 1 and 3mm of freezing rain occurred here in Quebec including my home in L'ile Perrot.

That was one stubborn cold air mass that would not yield to the warm front this weekend here in southern Quebec. While areas in Ontario and across the border in New York and Vermont reached well into the single digits above freezing, Montreal remained well below for most of Saturday only touching 0C just after midnight last night here on L'ile Perrot. Most of the day the city endured light freezing rain mixed with snow which iced sidewalks and roads and prompted warnings from Environment Canada. The warm front stalled just south of the St. Lawrence Valley having a difficult time scouring out the cold air at the surface. The warm front finally passed across the Island of Montreal late last night but the warm air was short lived as the cold front quickly raced across the valley. Meanwhile in southern Ontario temperatures warmed to between plus 6 and 8C.

We have a major pattern change in our future that will usher in colder air and the possibility of some decent snowfalls during the last two weeks of January. Up to this point, the winter has been rather tame with low snowfall totals (less than 35cm in Montreal) and frequent intrusions of warm air from the southern US. The true arctic air has been pinched off across northern Canada. Some of that cold air will finally filter into the eastern third of North America and combine with a more active storm track from the southwest US and along the eastern seaboard. We may see some active weather as early as this Thursday but until then temperatures will be rather mild with just a chance of some light snow or flurries late Monday. I will have more on the potential storm this week in tomorrow mornings entry.

Record prairie warmth

2012-01-05T21:35:00.003-05:00

As we sit at a cold -13C this evening on Ile Perrot some of the warmest weather ever for January is occurring across the northern plains from Minnesota into the Dakotas and north in the Prairie provinces. Here is a list of the record warmth today in Saskatchewan. I use to live in Gravelbourg, Saskatchewan, and the nearest official reporting station to my old home is Assiniboia which has now had consecutive record highs.

Assiniboia arpt         8.8      6.0      1990   
Broadview               7.7      4.5      1984 
Elbow cs                6.3      5.7      2001
Estevan arpt           10.1      5.6      1984
Leader arpt             9.3      7.5      1990
Rosetown east           6.3      4.4      1963
Saskatoon arpt          5.9      5.0      1906
Watrous east            7.1      5.0      1963
Weyburn                 9.7      5.5      1984
Wynyard                 6.5      4.4      2008
Yorkton arpt            5.0      4.5      1984

Alberta warmth

2012-01-05T07:35:00.002-05:00

Calgary Herald photo of grass fires in southern Alberta yesterday.

While Montreal slowly warmed to -5C overnight it was another record warm 24 hours across western Canada. Over a dozen temperature records were broken across the three Prairie provinces yesterday including 16.4C at Maple Creek, SK smashing the old record of 11C set in 1984. Assiniboia SK was 8.3C (7.4 in 2008), Calgary 15.3C (12.2 in 1914) and Edmonton 11.7C (8.9 in 1947). Strong winds blasted the region all day gusting to 109km at Pincher Creek. The winds knocked out power, toppled trucks on area highways and fanned two big grass fires. One near Nanton, Alberta, 90km south of Calgary, required dozens of firefighters to control and destroyed several buildings. More warm weather is forecast today with only a slight cool down into the weekend.

The warm air is part of a rapid west to east zonal flow that has kept the threat of major storms down across most of North America. As a result of this weather pattern, Montreal has periodic light precipitation and frequent temperature fluctuations. Such was the case over the last 24 hours as the mercury rose from lows on Wednesday morning of -20C here in the city up to -4C overnight and finally leveling off at -7C this morning. Light snow, no more than 1 or 2cm fell overnight, just enough to make roads slick. A second cold front will generate a few snow flurries today followed by some clearing and steady temperatures around -5C. Another clipper system will affect the province on Friday with up to 5cm of snow and warming temperatures to near freezing. It will warm more on Saturday with temperatures above 0C and light snow or even rain.

The only region that reported any major stormy weather this week was Newfoundland where a coastal low dumped up to 40cm of snow on the province with winds gusting over 100km per hour and a peak Wreckhouse wind of 135km per hour on Wednesday.

Light snow - milder

2012-01-04T07:26:00.000-05:00

It is another very cold start to the day across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario with temperatures down near -20C and a light breeze making it feel even colder. Actual temperatures overnight bottomed out at -20C here on Ile Perrot, -24C in Ottawa and -25C in St Jovite. The day will start sunny as arctic high pressure crests over the region. Clouds will be on the increase after noon as an advancing very weak cold front will cross the region tonight with a chance of some light snow. This will not be a storm with very limited moisture expect 2cm in the city with perhaps 5cm in the hills north of Montreal (1 - 2 inches). It will warm up today to -7C and continue to warm overnight to around -4C. Thursday and early Friday we will be between systems with a mix of clouds and sun before the next low pressure area, a clipper from out west passes near Montreal on Saturday. This system will have a little more moisture with it so look for a general 5cm (2 inches) snowfall across southern Quebec and temperatures warming to near 0C. No big storms are on the horizon through at least mid month.

It has been warm in western Canada. A few of record highs were broken on Monday across Saskatchewan including 6C at Assiniboia. Yesterday Alberta got into the act with record highs set in Medicine Hat at 11C. Calgary was warm as well with a high near 10C and overnight lows above freezing. Today the city is forecasting 13C with not a drop of snow around. More warm weather is expected into the weekend and early next week.

Cold but dry day

2012-01-03T07:16:00.001-05:00

Arctic air and snow created icy roads and numerous accidents across the Great Lakes and Appalachians on Monday.

A surge of arctic air is reaching across southern Canada this morning and all the way down to the Gulf States. Along the leading edge of the system snow squalls broke out across the region yesterday with heavy snow reported in many locals in Quebec and Ontario as well as Vermont/NY. Thankfully the snow spared Montreal and the usual traffic nightmare that results. In any event we are cold this morning, with -14C here on Ile Perrot and a brisk northwest wind making it feel like -19C. As the cold air deepens, the mercury will not budge today under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will be a very cold -20C. Then we are in for a period of unsettled, but fairly mundane weather. Several weak frontal systems will bounce the temperature from above to below normal into the weekend along with a chance for very light amounts of snow. At the most we may see an inch or two combined from the frontal boundaries, with very little storm activity on the weather map.

The cold air sweeping across the Great Lakes produced intense snow squalls yesterday in southwestern Ontario. The heaviest bands off Georgian Bay affected London, Ontario with 30cm of snow as of early this morning. More snow, perhaps another 15cm could fall today. The heavy snow is also affecting western New York, northern Pennsylvania and Ohio as well as portions of Michigan and Indiana. Light snow and freezing rain iced highways across the Appalachians, and frost and freeze warnings are in effect for most of northern and central Florida this morning. As of 7am it was -1C (30F) in Jacksonville, 4C (41F) in Melbourne, 2C (36F) at Daytona Beach and the warm spot Miami at 12C (54F).

Lake effect snow machine

2012-01-02T06:34:00.004-05:00

After a very mild start to 2012 across the eastern third of North America, the coldest air of the winter so far is on our doorstep. Happy New Year everyone, we started the year with a very mild high of plus 6C (43F) in Montreal with some light rain yesterday. The winds have picked up in the region this morning after the passage a cold front overnight and are gusting out of the southwest to 50km/h. It remains above freezing this morning with a current reading here on Ile Perrot of 2C (36F).

Strong low pressure moving across central Quebec is trailing a second front across eastern Ontario sweeping into the northern US. This front has very cold air and strong northwest winds associated with it. We are currently at our high for the day, with temperatures dropping all day long. The arctic front should approach the city around midday with a brief burst of heavy snow and very windy weather. Roads will likely ice up quickly so be prepared. The temperature will tumble throughout the day and night and settle in around -15C on Tuesday. Strong northwest winds up to 60km/h will drop windchill values into the -20's.

AccuWeather.com

Those same winds will be blowing across the Great Lakes creating the perfect conditions for lake effect snow. It is already snowing around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this morning as well as western New York near Buffalo and Watertown. The heavy lake effect snow will intensify today with widespread blowing snow and near blizzard conditions along portions of Interstate 81 from the Canadian border to Syracuse as well as Interstate 90 southwest of Buffalo. Warnings are in place and travel is not advised in those regions. Total snow amounts in the warned areas could be in the 10 to 20 inch (25-50cm) range. Elsewhere outside of the snow belts a general 1 to 2 inches (3-5cm) is expected. Across the Tug Hill south of Watertown over 2 feet is quite possible. Thunder and lightning will accompany the most intense squalls.

Yesterday, strong winds along the Lake Erie and Ontario shoreline produced flooding as well as power failures. Peak wind gusts across western New York and southwest Ontario were over 100km/h (60mph).

Happy New Year

2011-12-31T23:19:00.003-05:00

It is a warm 8C (46F) in Times Square for the arrival of 2012.

We are in the final hour of 2011 - the year of extreme weather. From the countless tornadoes that swept the US south, killing more than ever before, to hurricane Irene that swept across my Outer Banks and pounded New England and Vermont with the worst flooding on record, it was an expensive 2011. Here in Quebec we ended last year with freezing rain and we ended this year the same way. In between we had a the worst flooding in a generation in the Richelieu Valley followed by another very warm and humid summer, mild fall and a slow to start winter.

It has been another great year for me with a fantastic vacation on the Outer Banks in May that featured the best weather I have ever had there. We also added a little dog to our daily routine, Bella is part of our family. My daughter has been accepted with honors to University. Life is good. As always it is a pleasure to write and talk about the weather. I have been doing so since I could talk. I started writing and recording the weather in 1980 and blogging about it in 2005. I would like to thank all my family, friends and readers who frequent these pages daily, weekly or whenever you can, thank you. I hit 318 blog entries this year, we will shoot for 319 in 2012!

Be safe and have a very Happy New Year! See you all in 2012.

Freezing Rain Warning

2011-12-30T23:11:00.003-05:00

From Global TV Toronto, more accidents along the 401 tonight.

Environment Canada has posted a freezing rain warning for the Vaudreuil/Soulanges region of southern Quebec from just southwest of metro Montreal to the Ontario border. Precipitation is moving into the area at this hour with a mix of snow and freezing rain expected overnight. The system has already iced roads in Ontario with numerous accident reported. The OPP were even forced to close the 401 east of Oshawa. Low pressure will pass just south of Montreal Saturday with a light mixture of freezing rain and snow expected until about the noon hour. Temperatures have been very cold today but are now warming and should reach 0C by late Saturday. Travel with great care tonight as warnings are in effect for the entire Highway 401/20 corridor as well as south into northern New York and Vermont. Air travel is also being delayed or cancelled across southern Ontario due to the ice and fog.

More snow and ice

2011-12-30T08:23:00.002-05:00

Freezing rain in Toronto this morning (CTV.ca)

Sorry for the rant, but here it goes. I am not a big fan of winters like this one, as the constant fluctuations in temperature and precipitation type create terrible road conditions and more accidents. We witnessed that this past week when a few hours of above freezing weather cost us dearly as the rapidly falling temperatures froze road surfaces resulting in numerous accidents, some fatal across our entire region. It has been a deadly holiday period on Quebec roads with 11 deaths so far and indeed across many other parts of the country as well. In many cases the culprit has been the same type of weather. I would hope that if it is going to be winter than let it stay below freeing with snow. If it going to be spring than do so and warm above freezing and stay there. This constant roller coaster ride does nothing for anybody. Sadly it looks like this scenario will continue so it is up to us to adjust to it and begin driving much better than we are currently doing. Driving a car for most of us is the most dangerous thing we do everyday. Take a few steps on roads for the rest of the Holidays and into the New Year to protect yourself and other motorists as well. Slow down for one, especially adjusting your speed to the weather. Listen to the forecast, know when the weather is changing and be ready to change your driving habits. The obvious, winter tires and if you drink, do us all a favor and stay off the roads. The big factor is speed, slowing down lets you have more control over your car on ice and snow and allows the winter tires to do their job.

All that being said, we are in for another round of winter weather. It is another frigid morning in Montreal, dropping to -20C here on Ile Perrot overnight, we are now at -16C. A weak frontal boundary to our southwest has been the focus of light snow and freezing rain across Ontario overnight. Hundreds of accidents were reported in the Toronto region as a result. The snow is as far east as Cornwall and should arrive in the Montreal area by late morning. A couple of centimetres is possible into the evening before warmer air aloft allows the snow to mix with freezing drizzle. It could be a very icy night on the roads. Across northern New York and Vermont the threat for freezing rain has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory through noon Saturday. Freezing rain warnings may be required for a portion of our area later today.

The precipitation will taper off by Saturday afternoon with temperatures warming to above freezing. Sunday at this time looks mild with a shower or two and highs well above normal to start 2012 at plus 4C. Monday looks like a repeat of this past Wednesday with plummeting temperatures, gusty winds and snow as two arctic fronts cross the region. And the ride continues!

Arctic Chill

2011-12-29T07:20:00.000-05:00

After yesterday's wind, snow and ice, temperatures are frigid this morning. I have -19C here on Ile Perrot with a windchill of -27C at 7am, Trudeau Airport is -18C with a windchill of -30C, Ottawa is -20C with a windchill of -29C. I walked the dog briefly (her request to end it early) and trust me it is cold out. Montreal ended up officially with about 5cm of snow at the airport and around 15mm of rain from the last storm. There were reports of as much as 10cm of snow off island and upwards of 25mm of rain. All in all it was a nasty little storm. Look for a windy and cold but sunny day today as high pressure crests over the region. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest up to 50km/h, so windchill values will remain dangerously cold. A series of weak clipper type systems will affect southern Quebec and Ontario into New Years Day with periods of snow or light rain starting Friday and lasting into New Years Day. Amounts will be light but mixed precipitation will likely ice roads again. The biggest challenge once again will be determining the precipitation type as temperatures take the roller coaster ride back above freezing. It looks like more arctic air, possibly colder than this bunch will plunge back into the region to start the New Year by late Monday. Another period of snow and wind will accompany the cold.

Please drive safely and adjust your speed to mid-winter driving. There were numerous accidents in the region yesterday including another fatal one here in Montreal. It has been a deadly holiday season on Quebec roads. Wherever you are, slow down and allow your winter tires to do there job.

Arctic air rapidly moves in

2011-12-28T15:12:00.001-05:00

Interstate 89 south of Burlington today. (Burlington Free Press)

What a difference a few hours can make in the weather department. When I posted to the blog this morning, it was plus 2C (36F) in Montreal. At 3pm the city is at -9C (16F) with windchill values of -20C. Strong winds and falling snow have reduced visibility on area highways below 1km at times slowing traffic, especially towards the Ontario border and along the 401. The deepening cold behind last nights rainstorm is producing areas of steady snow. The snow has created difficult travel and has even forced the closure of Interstate 89 at Exit 10 in Waterbury, Vermont. The National Weather Service has posted a winter weather advisory for Vermont and New York, as well as a windchill advisory. Conditions will only improve after midnight when winds and snow begin to diminish. Low temperatures will be between -15C and -20C tonight. Total snow accumulations in Quebec will be 5-10cm (2-4") with 5-15cm (2-6") in Vermont and New York.

Much colder today

2011-12-28T07:04:00.000-05:00

There is no better example of a dramatic forecast miss than predicting heavy snow and ending up with rain. That was always a possibility with this storm as so much warm air at all levels was moving north with it. The dynamics were just not there for a snowstorm and the storm itself moved across New York state instead of Vermont bringing with it rain. We were counting on colder air arriving at the same time as the precipitation, it just did not happen. As a result it was mostly a rain event across Ontario and Quebec. I measured too much rain, close to 50mm but I believe this was melting snow as well at the onset tipping the scale. The airport measured only 14.4mm which is more in line with what this system had to offer.

We are waiting for the arrival of a potent arctic front this morning that will have temperatures plummeting all day on strong northwest winds (30-60km/h). This has already happened in Ottawa where it was -5C at 6am while we are sitting at 1C. Winds have started to increase here on Ile Perrot out of the west (20-30km/h) so expect the cold air shortly. Temperatures are currently as good as they will be today and will steadily drop to overnight lows of -17C with cold wind chills in the minus 20's. Needless to say all this water will freeze so watch out for icy roads and sidewalks. Some light snow will accompany the front, perhaps as much as 5cm locally. This will be enough with the winds and falling temperatures to make roads dangerous again today.

Heavy Snow Warning

2011-12-27T08:00:00.003-05:00

A slippery Christmas Eve and day on Ile Perrot. More snow coming tonight and Wednesday. Christmas Day was a mess on the roads, lets slow down with this storm. (ValleyWX Pic)

Environment Canada has posted a Heavy Snow Warning for Montreal and most of southern Quebec as well as extreme eastern Ontario including Brockville to the Quebec Border and the Ottawa region. Low pressure over Kentucky this morning will rapidly deepen as it moves to near Burlington, Vermont overnight and close to Quebec City on Wednesday. A sharp temperature difference will accompany this storm with mostly rain across New England and New York as well as southern Ontario. However from the St. Lawrence Valley north, heavy wet snow is expected along with strong northeast and then northwest winds. The wet snow could accumulate 15-20cm (6-8 inches) in a band running from just north of Ottawa across the Laurentians. Here in Montreal as well as Ottawa a general 10-15cm (4-6 inches) snowfall is forecast mixed at times with rain or freezing rain. Temperatures will be near freezing for the duration of the storm followed by a rapid drop in temperatures on Wednesday. An arctic front will sweep the area with dropping temperatures from 0C to -9C in a matter of hours Wednesday with any rain changing to all snow including in New York and Vermont. A rapid freeze up is expected Wednesday region wide including Toronto and areas south of Montreal that had received mostly rain. Roads will become very icy Wednesday with dropping temperatures and strong northwest winds up to 60km/h. Skies will clear Thursday before more snow Friday.

The bottom line is if you have to travel do it today.

First storm Tuesday?

2011-12-26T09:39:00.001-05:00

Sanding the icy roads on Ile Perrot on Christmas Eve. (ValleyWX)

Time for Boxing Day shopping and the weather is perfect, a vast improvement in road conditions over yesterday. Low pressure skirted along the international border on Christmas Day giving a decent snowfall and white Christmas to the St. Lawrence Valley with cool temperatures. Montreal managed about 4 to 7cm of snow, perfect for a Christmas card, not so good on the roads. Numerous cars hit the ditch along the Trans Canada Highway (40/417) to Ottawa and also north into the Laurentians along Highway 15. The roads are in good shape today and should remain that way into Tuesday. Temperatures yesterday ranged from above freezing in the Richelieu and Champlain Valleys due to a south wind to a very cold -7C here on Ile Perrot with a cold and damp northeast wind.

That is the good news, now the bad, the weather will turn nasty again late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning when travel could become quite dangerous. Low pressure will develop in the southern US and move across southeast New York state and into New England. It has been a difficult track with plenty of warm air pushing north again, therefor computer forecast models have been flip flopping between snow and rain for the last several days. It appears mixed precipitation will spread across the region late on Tuesday and change to all snow overnight into Wednesday from northwest to southeast. At this time at least 5cm of snow is expected for Montreal and Ottawa along with some rain and freezing rain. The potential exists for more, and warnings may be needed for a portion of our forecast region. The big threat with this storm will be the rapid drop in temperatures on Tuesday night across southern Ontario and Quebec, along with a flash freeze. The rapidly dropping temperatures, gusty winds and precipitation will make for very icy roads for late Tuesday in Ontario and Wednesday morning in Quebec.

I will update the information on this potential storm later today via the blog and twitter. Happy Holidays, be safe.

Christmas Weather

2011-12-24T08:42:00.001-05:00

My colleague from my days back at the Kemptville Advance, friend and brilliant artist Vicki Fawcett, drew this for me back in 2007. I love using it each year. Check out her other art HERE.

Brrrr, really, who left the fridge door open last night? It goes to show you what a little snow cover and a northerly wind can do for the temperature. Montreal is currently recording the coldest morning of the season at -16C, my low temperature for the night. Ottawa is -17C, Sherbrooke -20C and Maniwaki -23C. The mercury has not budged this morning. It will be hard pressed to do so with that northerly wind and high pressure cresting over the area on this Christmas Eve. Look for partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures, perhaps reaching -11C, but that would be it if at all. Tonight will start off clear and cold, but weak low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes with increasing clouds and warming temperatures towards daybreak Christmas morning.

Sunday will feature cloudy skies with a little light snow from the afternoon into the evening. We could see 2 to 4cm of snow, but it would not surprise me if a little more fell. It will be just enough to make roads slippery but temperatures will warm to -3C. Boxing Day looks fair for shopping and turkey leftovers before a stronger storm takes aim at the region for Tuesday. That system has the potential to produce more mixed precipitation so stay tuned because it could impact travel.

White Christmas

2011-12-23T07:20:00.000-05:00

Snow in Pointe Claire this morning. (ValleyWX)

With just a little over 36 hours to go until Christmas 2011, it has snowed in Montreal. While it was not really a surprise, perhaps the coverage and amount was. Low pressure is moving well south of Montreal off the Jersey coast this morning. Precipitation worked its way north into the St. Lawrence Valley late last evening in the form of light rain that changed to wet snow around midnight as the temperature dropped to 0C, where it is currently. Around 3cm, or just over one inch of snow has fallen at my home here on Ile Perrot with another 1 to 2cm likely before it tapers off by mid-morning. The snow will be followed by dropping temperatures, with the coldest night of the season expected tonight at -17C in Montreal, colder outside the city. The Christmas weekend looks wintry with very cold temperatures on Saturday (-10C) under fair skies and perhaps a quick shot of snow late on Christmas Day with milder temperatures closer to -2C.

Lots of people are travelling today - expect snow covered or slushy roads in most of southern Quebec and extreme eastern Ontario with areas north and west towards the Ottawa Valley reporting the coldest temperatures. South of Montreal along the US border and into New England it was mostly a rain event, but some snow is mixing in at this time and icy patches are likely. Icy patches will develop everywhere today as temperatures drop throughout the day so adjust your speed and allow plenty of braking distance. All in all it is not bad travel weather, more of a nuisance snow - be courteous and arrive safely.

Have a Happy Holiday!

Very icy morning

2011-12-22T07:28:00.003-05:00

Ice coats my Christmas decorations and trees on Ile Perrot last evening.

Lots of freezing rain fell on Ile Perrot last evening. In less than 2 hours I measured 11.9mm of precipitation between 8 and 10pm. Thankfully the temperature rose just slightly above freezing overnight and we are sitting at 1C, I just walked my dog and some melting is occurring. The freezing rain caused numerous accidents across the island of Montreal yesterday with nearly 2 dozen reported and another 50 or so in Ottawa. Northeast of Montreal near Drummondville, a collision between a car and school bus resulted in two fatalities. We would have been better off with snow but unfortunately this type of winter often results in numerous freezing rain events. The low pressure responsible for this mess moved from the Midwest across New York State just south of the city and is now well east of Montreal and heading into Atlantic Canada. A few flurries or snow showers will occur today with temperatures remaining steady near 1C.

It will be chilly overnight with a northeast wind, temperatures down to -7C and some snow developing. Low pressure will skirt the US Atlantic coast tonight an head into the Maratimes on Friday. Snow is expected to spread from south to north across the entire region and affect mainly from Montreal south and east. The heaviest amounts will be in southern Vermont where up to 15cm (6 inches) is possible. Amounts will taper off rapidly with just 1 or 2cm (less than 1inch) expected in Montreal. Skies will remain cloudy on Friday with flurries and chilly. The Christmas weekend at this time looks partly cloudy and chilly with perhaps a few flurries, but no major storms expected at this time.

Mixed precipitation continues

2011-12-21T20:33:00.000-05:00

Radar showing freezing rain over southwest Quebec and eastern Ontario.

Steady freezing rain continues in Montreal at 8pm with temperatures at -1C here on Ile Perrot and at Trudeau Airport. The freezing rain or drizzle has been falling since around 1pm here in the city. Numerous accidents have been reported across the southern half of the province including a fatal collision northeast of Montreal near Trois Rivieres. Traffic moved slowly across the city for the evening commute. Road conditions are once again deteriorating as an area of heavier freezing rain mixed with rain edges into the southwest portion of Quebec from Ontario. Area temperatures remain below freezing with the exception of Cornwall where it is now 1C with rain.

Freezing Rain Warning

2011-12-21T06:59:00.000-05:00

As I expected Environment Canada has posted a freezing rain warning for a wide area of southern Quebec including metro Montreal, as well as eastern Ontario. Low pressure is forecast to move from Illinois to upstate New York today, passing just south of Montreal. This track places us just north of the warm front, and in a favorable position for an extended period of freezing rain. Radar this morning is showing light snow moving into the region from the southwest, that will be followed by the steadier precipitation by the middle part of the day. Expect 2 to 10 mm of frozen precipitation, more than enough to make travel dangerous. Mild air will work as far north as the US border, as a matter of fact Montreal is -5C currently while Burlington, Vermont is already at the freezing point. For that reason expect just regular rain from the border region south. If your travel plans take you anywhere but straight south today, expect delays and icy roads. The precipitation will end this evening as a period of flurries. Temperatures today will remain near 0C in Montreal and Ottawa. Looking ahead we may have a little light snow on Thursday and again Sunday, but no major snow is in the forecast at this time, but perhaps just enough to whiten the ground.

Freezing Rain

2011-12-20T08:47:00.002-05:00

Montreal? Not really, Santa Fe, New Mexico yesterday afternoon (AP photo)

ICE SAFETY: The ice in and around Montreal and southern Quebec is very unstable this year, please stay off it until further notice. ICE SAFETY HERE

It is a very cold morning in Montreal after yesterday's warm high of 6C. Temperatures have been falling since late afternoon and are now at -8C with a gusty northwest wind and windchill values as cold as -15C. Today will be sunny across the area, but cold at -6C. Clear skies will give way to an increase in clouds overnight with a low of -11C. Then the nasty weather starts, I wish it was snow, but sadly as I said to start the week it looks like ice. Strong low pressure that has blasted the southern plains with a blizzard producing over 25cm of snow and foot high drifts in New Mexico and Kansas is poised to move close to Montreal late Wednesday. The warm from associated with that system will produce an area of freezing rain in the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley's on Wednesday before changing to rain as the roller coaster ride continues. Temperatures should rise above freezing by late in the day and remain that way Thursday. High pressure will then move in behind the storm with another dip in temperatures Friday and Saturday before some snow on Christmas Day. How much snow for the 25th? It is way too early to tell at this point, but stay tuned.

For traveling around the region today, all directions are clear, dry and cold. The only travel concerns would be northeast of Montreal where snow fell yesterday. Some roads towards Quebec City and points north may still be icy or snow covered. Blowing snow remains a problem along highways in the Saguenay and Lac St. Jean region. Otherwise travel to the northern US and Ontario is perfect today. As far as Wednesday goes we will likely see freezing rain warnings posted for a portion of our region.

Cool down underway

2011-12-19T21:30:00.003-05:00

A cold front has passed across the St. Lawrence Valley and is now south of Montreal. Most of the precipitation in the region is over after a couple of millimeters of rain and a trace of snow today. Winds have been gusty all day out of the southwest during most of the daylight hours and now the northwest gusting to 50km/h. The temperature started the day rather cold but rose dramatically at noon from -1C to 5C here in Montreal in a matter of minutes. My official high here on Ile Perrot was an unseasonably mild 6C at 1:47pm. It is slowly falling tonight with any wet surfaces expected to freeze up in the next few hours. We are currently 2C on Ile Perrot dropping to an overnight low of -11C.

Active weather week ahead

2011-12-19T07:31:00.001-05:00

(Image from AccuWeather.com)

After a bright but rather chilly weekend here in Montreal, we are heading into an active weather week. There are no majors storms on the map but lots of nuisance weather systems, the type you can expect with this kind of a fall and winter. With lots of milder air frequently surging into the southern Quebec and Ontario and cold air poised to settle south right behind it, frequent freeze and thaw cycles occur which makes driving actually more dangerous than if it was a normal winter. We will see that several times this week, as a matter fact we are already observing snow this morning. Deepening low pressure is moving across central Ontario into central Quebec this morning with some snow and rain.

A warm front is moving across the region as I write this entry with light snow in Montreal and a gusty southeast wind. Montreal is only expecting 2cm and perhaps a rain shower, but snowfall warnings are in place northeast of Montreal where 10-15cm could fall in Quebec City and points north. At -4C with a windchill of -9C it is a rather raw morning in Montreal. The front will lift north of the city this morning giving us a few hours of above normal temperatures. It is already 4C in Toronto and 0C in Ottawa, so the milder air is on the way. It will be short lived with a potent cold front passing over the area this evening with strong northwest winds up to 50km/h and showers changing to flurries with plummeting temperature to -12C by morning. Look for a rapid freeze up on area roads so watch your travel tonight. The same scenario I just described is likely to play out two or three times up to Christmas Day. In the end we will be left with more ice than snow I believe. Stay tuned on this busy travel week as I will update the blog at least twice a day. Be safe.

Weekend Update

2011-12-16T07:22:00.000-05:00

We are running out of time in securing a white Christmas here in southern Quebec and Ontario. Yesterday was remarkably warm for December, or even November, with temperatures soaring to 11C in Montreal and we already have recorded a high of 10C today, it came during the overnight hours. The temperature has been dropping since, and now sits at 4C. They will bottom out at a cold -10C overnight tonight. Showers accompanied the cold front this morning and a secondary shot of cold air by the middle part of the day could produce flurries. Heavy rain occurred over Montreal yesterday with 42.5mm at the airport. I measured close to 30mm here on Ile Perrot, but I was having trouble with my computer so that measurement is not reliable. I have since fixed the problem and we are back on track.

High pressure will dominate the weather for the weekend with sunny skies, cool days around -5C and cold nights around -10C throughout the area. The next chance for precipitation will come from a frontal system on Monday that could give us some light snow or once again showers as temperature warm to above normal. We are still watching the weather map for a potential significant snowfall during the middle to late portion of next week, but it is way too soon to pinpoint that forecast.

Rainy and windy

2011-12-15T09:44:00.002-05:00

This will be a very brief post this morning. My computer decided to fail me and take my weather data with it, that is why you see -999C on my weather sticker. Rest assured hell has not frozen over. On the contrary it is a mild 5C with steady rain this morning as low pressure moves to our west. Before the technological collapse this morning I measured 14.1mm of rain to 7:21am. It will be a wet, dreary and breezy day today. I will update the forecast this evening after all my computer components are reconnected.

Rain and maybe snow

2011-12-14T07:10:00.002-05:00

It is mild once again this morning in Montreal with a 7am reading of 1C. We have had scattered snow showers and drizzle over the last 24 hours thanks to a weak cold front in the area. It has been generally dull and uninspiring for mid-December. Today we will see a brief break in the precipitation as weak high pressure noses into southern Quebec. We may see a break or two, but it will be mostly cloudy and damp with temperatures no better than 1 or 2C. Our next weather system is a low pressure near Colorado that will sweep across the Great Lakes and move west of Montreal placing us in the warm sector once again. As the warm front approaches the region overnight, some cold air at the surface will allow for mixed precipitation at the onset. Keep this in mind if your travels take you north of Montreal or east, as freezing rain warnings are in effect for those areas. Elsewhere a brief period of snow will change over to rain overnight and continue on Thursday with temperatures very warm, up to 9C (48F).

A cold front will cross the area late Thursday with any leftover precipitation tapering off to flurries by Friday morning as temperatures lower back to the freezing point. Our next chance for any appreciable snow will come Sunday and again by next Tuesday. Scenario one looks like only a centimetre or two for Sunday, but the second system early next week needs to be watched closely as it moves across the Ohio Valley and close to our region.

Another mild week ahead

2011-12-12T07:12:00.005-05:00

It felt just a little like winter over the weekend, at least on Saturday. Cooler temperatures and a spot of snow Friday night made for a wintry Saturday with snow on the ground, a chill in the air and snow showers scattered around southern Quebec. It was short lived as Sunday brought above normal temperatures again as our very mild late fall/early winter moves along. Don't look for any winter weather this week as the region will be dominated by a southwest flow. High pressure is in control to start the week with sunshine and warm temperatures up to 5C today in Montreal. That will be followed by a very weak and somewhat dry cold front on Tuesday with just a chance of a shower or snowflake. Wednesday will be fair before low pressure approaches the region and passe to our west leaving Montreal in warm air once again with rain on Thursday. There are signs that the coldest air of the season may arrive next weekend with a promise for snow to start Christmas week. Keep in mind however that many rimes this year that scenario has presented itself a week or 10 days out only to have the forecast modify and be much warmer with rain or a mix as the forecast evolves.

Environment Canada has posted the likelihood of a white Christmas for many major centers across Canada. You can check it out HERE. I remember as a child growing up in Montreal during the snowy 70's, that we were guaranteed a very white Christmas, always sledding and skating outdoors. It was a wonderful way to spend the two week break every year. To be honest I miss that weather. You can see on the Environment Canada link that Montreal's average snow cover today on Christmas Day is down an incredible 50% from the years when I was growing up. Argue global warming all you want, something is happening to our weather!

Weekend Update

2011-12-09T07:16:00.006-05:00

Winds gusting as high as that of a category 2 hurricane caused widespread damage and power outages across Atlantic Canada yesterday. This truck did not fare too well near Sydney, Nova Scotia. Image from CBC News

We are sitting at the freezing point again in Montreal this morning as our "ho hum" weather continues. It is now December 9 and all we have is a trace of snowfall to show for the month and 9cm for the season. Most days have been within a degree or two of 0C for highs and lows, and we have had lots of cloud cover. Temperatures will continue to be above normal this weekend as that cold air mass from out west has moderated as it crossed the Great Lakes. We are looking at a cloudy day with periods of flurries or showers. The weekend looks mild and partly cloudy with high temperatures of 1 or 2C and lows between -6C and -2C.

The precipitation today is being generated by a cold front moving across the Great Lakes. That front will produce gusty southwest winds off of the lakes that may produce a period of steady lake effect snow along Highway 401 from Kingston to Brockville and extending north into Leeds and Grenville County and perhaps even Kemptville. A couple of quick centimetres is possible with low visibility in any of the squalls. Last night a feeder band of lake snow stretched all the way from Georgian Bay to Ottawa. If they hold together today we may see a few heavier flurries in southern Quebec, but the likelihood is low.

That Atlantic Nor'Easter that raced up the east coast yesterday produced heavy rain and snow across the Maratimes. The storm also brought with it fierce winds that gusted as high as 159km/h at Englee, Newfoundland. There were numerous reports of damage and power outages with many communities reporting gusts in excess of 100km/h. The same was true across Nova Scotia and New Brunswick where strong winds cut power to thousands and made travel dangerous. The Confederation Bridge to PEI was closed after winds exceeded 100km/h and gusted as high as 136km/h. It has since reopened.

Few snowflakes for Montreal

2011-12-08T07:12:00.005-05:00

Heavy snow falling in Monticello, Maine near the New Brunswick border this morning.

I am afraid the weather headlines are not very exciting lately in Montreal. We had just a few snowshoes last evening as a rapidly developing area of low pressure skirted the American east coast moving northeast. That storm pounded southern New England with 1-3 inches of rain and winds gusting to 60mph late yesterday and overnight. The storm is in the Gulf of Maine this morning spreading heavy rain across Atlantic Canada with heavy wet snow in a narrow band from northern New Hampshire along the US/Canadian border and into northern New Brunswick and the Gaspe. Overnight snowfall ranged from a dusting here in Montreal up to as much as 15cm (6 inches) along the Townships/New England Border and as much as 25cm (10 inches) in the upper elevations of southern Vermont.

High pressure will try to clear us out this morning, but I am noticing on radar some more snow flurries working there way towards Montreal from the Ottawa Valley. Those will be brief and then is should be a sunny but breezy day with winds up to 40km/h. Temperatures are chilly this morning, but still well above normal for December at -3C. Look for highs around 2C today. Another weak cold front will approach southern Quebec on Friday with a few more flurries.

If your travels take you anywhere near the snow belts of western New York or Ontario today, there will be lake effect snow developing in those regions affecting I-81 from Watertown south to north of Syracuse as well ads the area around Buffalo. The lake snow may shift north on Friday and affect the Thousand Islands region of Ontario/NY, Highway 401, eastern Ontario and the western Adirondacks.

Snow for Townships/Vermont

2011-12-07T07:05:00.003-05:00

A quick moving low pressure system developing this morning along that slow moving cold front that cleared Montreal yesterday, is forecast to move into the Gulf of Maine by Thursday morning. An area of enhanced precipitation with this storm will affect southern New England today and spread into Vermont and southeast Quebec near the US border tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory is now posted for most of eastern and southern Vermont as well as New Hampshire for snow tonight and early Thursday, accumulating up to 10cm with 15cm locally. In Quebec the precipitation will remain well south and east of Montreal affecting Sherbrooke and the Townships with 5-10cm of snow overnight. Keep this in mind if your travels take you down Highway 10 or Interstates 89, 91 or 93 tonight and early tomorrow.

Montreal will remain on the northwest edge of the system with a chance for a few flurries and temperatures right around 0C. As a matter of fact it has been 0C at my home since about 10pm last night with the weather centre showing the high and low as 0C so far. Further south across the middle Atlantic a steady cold rain is expected with perhaps a brief period of wet snow later tonight. That quick moving Nor'Easter will continue to strengthen and provide a big snowstorm for New Brunswick across western Nova Scotia and the Gaspe. Over 20cm is forecast with winds gusting to 90km/h on Thursday.

Still waiting for snow

2011-12-06T21:11:00.006-05:00

That was one slow moving cold front that passed across Montreal and southern Quebec overnight and this morning with the promise of snow. Around 28mm of rain fell at my home on L'Ile Perrot, but no snow. Temperatures were just too mild for the snow we had expected to fall behind the front, at least here in Montreal. Up to 5cm of wet snow covered the ground across the Ottawa Valley and portions of southwest Ontario. Snow also fell yesterday as far south as New Mexico. So it continues to be a very mild fall in Montreal as we await true winter and snow. In November, Montreal had 8.2cm of snow, the normal is 21.9cm. So far in December the city recorded a trace, today, the normal is 48.3cm. Radar is showing flurries tonight north of the city, and we have finally reached the freezing point here in Montreal, a full 24 hours later than I expected it would. We can expect some flurries tonight but at this time, no major storms are on the horizon. The air will chill over the next few days and into the weekend, but it will not be as cold as originally expected earlier in the week, and still above normal for December. Temperatures will dip to -10C on by Sunday morning, but warm once again to above freezing by Monday.

Colder weather on the way

2011-12-05T07:13:00.003-05:00

Snow in Omaha, Nebraska over the weekend. (theindependant.com)

Our very mild fall continued across southern Quebec over the weekend with mostly dry weather and temperatures running 10 degrees above normal. At 7am this morning Montreal was 8C down from yesterday's warm 10C, (the record was 15C set in 1982) the normal high/low for this time of the year is -1 and -8C. We have light rain falling in Montreal as a cold front slowly moves from our northwest towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Impulses of moisture are sliding along that front from the southern US with heavier precipitation. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity today as the front moves into the St. Lawrence Valley. As colder air begins to filter into the region, temperatures will drop from where they sit currently and approach the freezing point by midnight. Look for rain to change to wet snow before ending by mid morning Tuesday. Up to 5cm of wet snow is possible in some locations especially north and west of Montreal towards Ottawa. Temperatures are at the high for today right now and will drop to -1C by Tuesday morning. They should stay there on Tuesday with clouds thinning by afternoon. Much colder air will then move into Quebec and eastern Ontario to end the week with temperatures dropping into the minus teens for lows, the coldest air of the season by Saturday. It will be short lived with more mild air expected next week. But for the short term expect a return to more wintry weather with the likelihood of more snow later this week.

Over the weekend low pressure lifted from Texas to northwest Ontario with a swath of heavy snow falling west of the track. Places like the Texas Panhandle and Nebraska had their first snowstorm of the season with as much as 15cm (6 inches). Behind the front arctic air plunged south. It was very cold once again across Manitoba and Saskatchewan on Sunday with snow and blowing snow. Temperatures this morning are a chilly -19C in Regina and -24C in Winnipeg.

Light Snow

2011-12-02T07:05:00.003-05:00

The wild temperature swings across the country this fall are showing no signs of changing any time soon. We are mild for the time being this morning - around the freezing point in eastern Ontario and western Quebec. Radar is showing an area of light snow and rain along a cold front moving southeast towards the St. Lawrence Valley this morning with snow falling in Ottawa. I expect some snow to spread into Montreal today with 1-3cm possible, less in the city centre where it may mix with light rain. Temperatures will warm briefly above freezing to 1 or 2C before falling back behind the cold front by late afternoon. Skies should clear out tonight with a cold evening on tap for the region with lows on either side of -10C. It will be a mild weekend with partly cloudy skies on Saturday and increasing chances of precipitation on Sunday. Temperatures will be 2C on Saturday, warming to 6C on Sunday so no snow only rain. The next chance for snow or rain will come late Monday.

The Santa Ana winds in southern California and the US southwest kicked up again yesterday with record ferocity blowing across the desert and into the canyons and passes of the Golden State. Wind gusts were reported as high as 167 mph (over cat 5 hurricane) with widespread damage to homes and trees reported, and hundreds of thousands without power. Here are some rather notable wind gusts from the current event, which forecasters say was the strongest in a decade.

-- Henninger Flats, Calif. (2,800 ft., near Pasadena): 167 mph* -- Mammoth Mountain, Calif. (11,000 ft.): 150 mph* -- Steamboat Springs Ski Resort, Colo.: 123 mph -- Kane Springs, Nevada: 98 mph -- Neihart, MT: 77 mph -- Meeteetse, Wyom.: 75 mph -- Sandia Park, New Mexico: 72 mph (AccuWeather.com)

2011-11-30T07:09:00.003-05:00

From KATV, snow falling across Arkansas on Tuesday.

A big swirl of low pressure continues to spin its way northeast across Ontario this morning. On the front side of it in the mild air, Montreal sits at 9C with showers, meanwhile Toronto is down to 2C. We had quite an intense period of rain early this morning here on Ile Perrot, and that pushed my 24 hours rain total to 29.7mm. It has been very wet across Ontario and in some cases white. Yesterday 81.2mm of rain fell in Windsor, with 42mm across the GTA and 21.2mm in Ottawa. The rain has since changed to wet snow across portions of Ontario and southwest into Michigan and Indiana where as much as 25cm (10 inches) fell late yesterday and overnight. The snow has left many without power. It has been a bizarre fall with so may regions receiving wet snowstorms just days after having well above normal temperatures. Snow fell as far south as Arkansas and Mississippi yesterday. Many regions of the deep south were colder than Montreal on Tuesday. The cold is air slowly pouring into eastern Ontario and Quebec this morning on gusty west winds. Look for high temperatures to be reached early in the day in the St. Lawrence Valley followed by a slow fall to overnight lows below freezing to -4C. The showers should taper off to a few flurries by late today. A coupe of centimetres of wet snow may accumulate across the Ottawa Valley.

We will have a brief break on Thursday before another area of low pressure brings a chance for rain and wet snow on Friday. The weekend at this time looks cloudy and cool with flurries.

Freezing rain north - cold rain south

2011-11-29T07:16:00.004-05:00

Low pressure over Kentucky is forecast to move northeast across southern Ontario by late today and eventually east of Quebec by tomorrow. This morning light rain is falling in Montreal with chilly temperatures of 3C. It should warm to 6C today and increase further overnight tonight in the rain and mild southwest winds to about 12C. Rain will increase in intensity and coverage tonight as the main area of low pressure and associated cold front crosses the area. The slow moving storm is producing well above normal temperatures south and east of the center, however on the north and west side it is a different story. Cold air at the surface is allowing for freezing rain in a wide swath from central Ontario across the upper Ottawa Valley and north of Montreal from Pontiac to Quebec City. Warnings are in place for as much as 10-20mm of ice. This will cause serious road conditions and power outages. Keep this in mind if your travels take you north of Montreal or north and west of Ottawa today and tonight.

Further south snow is falling across northern Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. Snow will also fall on the backside of the system from Indiana and Illinois into Michigan and parts of Ontario. Up to 15cm (6 inches) of snow may follow the rain. Here in southern Quebec it will be mainly a rain event with up to 25mm (1 inch) possible tonight and Wednesday followed by perhaps a few snowflakes late in the day Wednesday as the temperatures tumbles to the freezing point. The balance of the week looks seasonable but unsettled with a few showers or flurries into the weekend. No big cold or snowstorms are in our future for Montreal at this time.

*** I have posted screen shot of my new weather system ValleyWX above. I installed it in the backyard last night and hopefully will make it available online shortly. I am just checking the equipment for reliability and accuracy at this time. In any event it will help me provide a more localized forecast for the southwestern suburbs of Montreal south to the US border and west to the Ontario border.

Fierce winds in Alberta

2011-11-28T07:11:00.003-05:00

Wind damage in downtown Calgary on Sunday (Calgary Herald)

Strong winds swept across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan yesterday bringing record high temperatures to the region but also causing considerable damage. Winds gusted as high as 144km/h at Claresholm, Alberta and 91km/h in Calgary. The winds toppled trees and power lines and tore roofing off structures in downtown Calgary. The wind punched out several windows on high rise buildings spraying glass over the downtown core and forcing firefighters to close most of the central part of Calgary for a time on Sunday. Just two weeks after the record arctic chill, temperatures soared into the teens in parts of Albert and Saskatchewan with nearly a dozen new record highs.

Meanwhile here in the east we had a rather dull, but very mild weekend. This morning Montreal is at 12C with a gusty southwest wind. That temperature is well above the normal high of 3 or 4C for late November. Some wintry weather is on the menu for overnight tonight. First today we are dealing with a cold front this morning that should clear the valley by noon with any rain tapering off. Temperatures will fall today to around 4C this afternoon and down to 0C overnight. Overnight another stronger area of low pressure will lift out of the Gulf states and into southern Ontario. It will also bring another surge of warm air which will override the cold air at the surface and produce a period of freezing rain, especially northwest of the Ottawa Valley in Ontario and across the area well north of Montreal. Spotty freezing rain may occur in Montreal but it will be short lived. This next storm will be around through mid week with quite a bit of precipitation. So far this morning the only warnings in place for this next storm, is a Winter Storm Watch for northeast Ontario (Parry Sound, Algonquin, Haliburton). More warnings for rain and freezing rain may be needed later today or on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year with no arctic air in sight. Keep in mind any freezing rain that falls can ice roads very quickly, so if your travel takes you north or northwest of Montreal tonight or Tuesday, plan accordingly.

Weekend Update

2011-11-25T06:57:00.003-05:00

What a difference 48 hours can make in the weather department. It is breezy and mild this morning at 6C in Montreal, the warmest reading of the week and we are on the way to 10C. Needless to say plenty of snow melting has taken place in the last 12 hours or so and most of our 12cm is gone. The partial sunshine and warm southwest winds up to 50km/h today will take care of the rest and we should be snow free once again by this evening. High pressure will provide the region with a breezy, warm and dry period into Saturday before a cold front approaches southern Quebec late overnight into Sunday. Showers will develop on Sunday with periods of steadier rain likely. Temperatures will start the period well above normal, but drop to more seasonable levels into next week with a chance for showers or flurries almost everyday as we move into an unsettled period.

Much milder

2011-11-24T08:17:00.003-05:00

Well after yesterday's morning rush hour adventure, caused mainly by those people who think late November is too early for snow tires, today was a breeze. The snow has compacted quite a bit and even started to melt in places. Roads were bare and wet with just some icy spots in the suburbs. Say goodbye to our first taste of winter as winds will shift to the southwest today and draw in much warmer air. Temperatures under cloudy skies will reach 6C today and even warmer Friday at 9C. Montreal is already warmer than at any time yesterday at 1C. It will be a mild weekend but rain is forecast to spread into the region Saturday night, and Sunday at this time looks windy, wet and warm for late November.

The early round up for yesterday's snowstorm was about 10cm (4 inches) for Montreal (a little more at my home in Ile Perrot with about 12cm) with as much as 20cm in Plattsburgh, New York, 10-15cm for Burlington, Vermont and Sherbrooke and only a couple of centimetres in Ottawa. Windsor, Ontario had close to 60mm of rain and Halifax recorded a whopping 34cm of snow with portions of Nova Scotia having as much as 40cm along with 80km/h winds. The storm is now affecting Newfoundland.

SNOW

2011-11-23T07:15:00.004-05:00

Despite me telling Bella the snow was coming as early as Sunday, my two year old Terrier was as surprised as everyone else when she stepped outside this morning. (ValleyWX pic)

One word this morning, snow! Despite the warnings, lots are being caught off guard today with no winter tires, snow brushes and such. The first snow seems to come as a surprise to all and this morning is no different. Roads off island are in very poor shape, snow covered and slippery with reduced visibility. Highway 15 south is closed near St. Jerome because of a major accident. From the south shore, bridges are slow and commuters are experiencing up to an hour delay. Warnings remain posted across southern Quebec and northern New England and will remain so until about mid-day when the snow will taper off. About 5cm (2 inches) has fallen in Montreal with close to 10cm in northern Vermont and along the US border. Radar shows several more hours of snow before it ends with a storm total of 10cm forecast. Temperatures will be close to the freezing point all day. Winds are gusty this morning out of the northeast up to 40km/h reducing visibilities especially south of the city. In the last hour Montreal Trudeau Airport is reporting snow with northeast winds gusting to 33km/h and a windchill of -9C.

Once this early taste of winter passes today we can expect clearing skies and mild weather into the weekend, so most of the snow will melt. The storm responsible for the snow in Quebec and freezing rain last night in Ontario is now over southern New York state and moving east into the Atlantic. It will deepen rapidly and pound Atlantic Canada with up to 30cm of snow and strong winds later today.

Storm Update

2011-11-22T21:27:00.002-05:00

As of 9:30pm the leading edge of the precipitation is approaching the Brockville/Thousand Islands region of Ontario. Snow should move into southern Quebec and Metro Montreal by 3am with the heaviest snow falling, sadly, close to the morning commute. A good 5cm is expected with as much as 10cm south of the city. Along the 401 in Ontario from Toronto northeast towards Brockville, freezing rain is expected. Toronto is currently reporting freezing rain, so roads are slick in the region. Expect winds to increase as well with gusts out of the northeast to 50km/h. This evening winds were gusting over 60km/h in southern Ontario. Low pressure will move from Illinois to New York State by tomorrow. Snow will spread across northern New England and Quebec and into Atlantic Canada on Wednesday.

Weather Warning for Montreal

2011-11-22T07:08:00.004-05:00

On the coldest morning of the season to date (-8C here in Montreal), Environment Canada has issued a Weather Warning for southern Quebec from the Ontario border south and east to the Townships. Low pressure is lifting north from Texas into the Ohio Valley today and will pass just south of Quebec across New York State on Wednesday. Clouds will thicken up later today and the precipitation associated with this storm will spread across eastern Ontario after midnight and into Montreal during the overnight period tonight. Snow mixed with freezing rain will be the type expected here in the city with 5-10cm forecast. That amount falls well under the heavy snow warning criteria, but due to the fact it is the first snow of the season and the onset occurring during the morning commute, the warning was posted to alert the public. Up to 15cm (6 inches) may fall in the Eastern Townships and the Green Mountains.

The National Weather Service has Winter Weather Advisories posted for northern New York and Vermont. Tomorrow is a big travel day across North America, and you can expect delays in the east. Those not being affected by snow and freezing rain can expect gusty winds and heavy rain from Boston to New York. Today will be calm region wide with sunny skies and cold temperatures around 0C in Montreal. Temperatures will drop to -2C in the snow overnight and remain near 0C on Wednesday. Winds are also expected to be a factor in southern Quebec and the St. Lawrence Valley, gusting between 30 and 50km/h out of the northeast on Wednesday. Skies should clear Thursday and it will turn very mild once again.

Snow Update

2011-11-21T21:42:00.003-05:00

AccuWeather.com

It appears our first snow of the season is on the way for metro Montreal and points south and east of the city into the Townships. I hesitate to call this a storm, however it will be a potent low pressure area with decent lift as it moves from the Ohio Valley across New England on Wednesday. Moisture will be limited in Montreal due to the speed of the system and temperatures will be flirting with the freezing point through the event so some of the snow may melt. Snow should overspread the area from west to east after midnight on Tuesday into Wednesday and mix with freezing rain and rain by Wednesday morning. At this time it looks like the heaviest snow will be across the higher elevation of the Eastern Townships and New England with 10-15cm possible. In the valley's including Montreal I think 3 to 5cm is a good bet. While it is not lots of snow, it is the first taste of winter for Montreal and that will likely cause some traffic problems on Wednesday morning.

At this time a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for northern New York and Vermont with just a special weather statement highlighting the first snow of the season for Ottawa, Cornwall and Montreal. It is Thanksgiving Week south of the border, so lots of people are travelling. At this time it looks like portions of Interstate 87, 89 and 91 will be affected by snow and ice, as well as Highways 10, 15 and 20 in Quebec and the 401 in Eastern Ontario.

First snow?

2011-11-21T07:15:00.003-05:00

It was -36.1C in Edmonton on Sunday morning. The city is in the grips of an early cold snap after a 15cm snowstorm on Thursday. (CTV.ca)

What a bizarre fall this has been. I would not have bet that New York City and Vancouver would have measurable snow before Montreal, but both cities have. Vancouver recorded up to 5cm over the weekend. Many portions of Canada are already recording mid-winter weather including Edmonton where a new record low was established over the weekend at an incredible -36.1C. That is cold anytime of the year folks, but in November, really? The good news for the west is that a moderation in temperatures will begin today and highs will likely nudge above the freezing point by Tuesday for a day or two before more cold air arrives by the end of the week.

SNOW for MONTREAL: For us here in Montreal we had a rather balmy, docile weekend. Temperatures remained well above normal with highs of 10C on Saturday and 13C yesterday, both well above normal, today, not so warm. A cold front swept the area on Sunday with gusty winds, brief showers and dropping temperatures. We are sitting at the coldest morning so far this fall with -5C in Montreal but as cold as -10C just north of the city and -7C in Ottawa. We will not make it above freezing today. This will set the stage for perhaps and interesting 24 hours of weather beginning late Tuesday. Low pressure organizing over the southern plains is forecast to pass just south of Montreal over New England by Wednesday morning. Initial model runs had the storm too far south to affect us, but now it looks like the track will send a swath of precipitation over the St. Lawrence Valley. It will likely be cold enough at first for snow and freezing rain for Ottawa and Montreal late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning before a transition to rain from the city south. We are not looking at big amounts of precipitation, perhaps 5-10cm. However with it being the first taste of snow for the city, we all know what that means. I will update this later today, so check back. So far only a special weather statement has been issued for eastern Ontario for places like Cornwall and Ottawa for the wintry mix with perhaps up to 10cm of snow. Stay tuned.

Weekend Update

2011-11-18T07:17:00.002-05:00

The mid-day sun hangs low on the horizon near frigid Fairbanks, Alaska yesterday. Temperatures were as cold as -49F in Alaska as record setting cold dominates the state and south into the Yukon and western Canada.

It is a chilly morning in Montreal, one of the coldest of the season at -3C, but nothing compared to western Canada. The rain of yesterday has left some frozen puddles around, but otherwise it is a bright morning. Any leftover snow flurries are over the Townships and into northeast Vermont. There is also lake effect snow falling east of Lake Ontario and Erie with a good 20cm (8 inches) in spots around the Tug Hill of western New York. Our weekend forecast looks ok for late November with a partly sunny, dry day expected Saturday with a gusty southwest wind and warming temperatures to 10C. Low pressure and a cold front will approach southern Quebec on Sunday with widespread showers and windy conditions. Temperatures will drop quickly late Sunday so we could see a brief period of flurries once again before precipitation ends overnight Sunday. The start of next week looks dry and seasonably cool at this time.

ARCTIC CHILL: If you want the really cold air look out west across the Prairies, Rockies and into Alaska. The cold is setting all kinds of records for so early in the season. It is -16C this morning in Edmonton, and that is the best they will do. As the cold air deepens, temperatures will continue to drop today to overnight lows of -24C. Meanwhile Alaska is downright frigid. Yesterday Fort Yukon dropped to -46F, while Fairbanks set a new record cold "high" of -30F, that is 39 degrees colder than the normal high. It smashed the previous record of -19F set in 1904. The overnight low there was also a new record, -41F, the old one being -39F established in 1969. Temperatures will moderate slightly over the next few days.

SNOW and colder

2011-11-17T07:15:00.002-05:00

Ok now that I have your attention, it will only be some scattered snow flurries for Montreal. A cold front moved through the city last night with very little notice, just a wind shift from the southwest to northwest. This has brought in noticeably cooler air this morning and the city is at 1C. It will not warm much today as clouds begin to increase once again with a few showers likely by afternoon. Winds will become gusty and temperatures will do no better than 5C before lowering below freezing to -2C tonight. Any showers will change over to flurries after sunset and end after midnight. Roads, especially elevated structures may be a little slippery in places overnight.

The gusty northwest winds are setting up snow squalls in the usual trouble spots southeast of Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. Warnings are out for the Bruce Peninsula in Ontario as well as around Sault Ste Marie for up to 25cm of snow. Warnings are also in effect for Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego Counties in New York for 6 to 9 inches of snow. The snow will intensify this afternoon and taper by Friday morning. As with all lake snow events expect the heaviest snow in very narrow bands with amounts ranging from nothing to up to 5cm an hour just a few miles away.

In western Canada the cold air continues to pour into Alberta and Saskatchewan. A pesky low pressure area will spread from northern Alberta into the southern Prairies today with accumulating snow and strong winds. A winter storm warning is in effect for Edmonton and parts of central Alberta for 10-15cm of snow. This morning Edmonton is -10C with a northeast wind at 30km/h and a windchill of -19C. Temperatures will not warm today but drop in the heavy snow with poor travel and low visibility. It was as cold as -40C in the Yukon yesterday morning, The cold has set new records across Alaska as well.

Lake effect snow machine

2011-11-16T07:15:00.004-05:00

Lake effect snow will make travel difficult in parts of western New York and central Ontario late tonight and Thursday. This photo was taken along Interstate 81 during a 2008 lake snow event south of Watertown.

The lake effect snow machine will likely get cranked up for the first time this season late tonight and especially Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Low pressure and a cold front will cross the area today setting up a westerly fetch off the central Great Lakes. The most likely area for accumulating snow will be the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario and Erie across western New York. There is a watch in effect for Osewgo, Jefferson and Lewis Counties of New York. This includes Interstate 81 between Watertown and Syracuse, so if you have travels that way keep this in mind. There is also a snow squall watch out for Sault Ste Marie in Ontario for up to 25cm of wind driven lake effect snow, getting cranked up later today.

Outside of that, including here in Montreal, the weather picture looks tranquil for mid-November. One low pressure area over Mississippi will produce rain and some severe weather in the southern US and towards the middle Atlantic, but that will remain well south of our regions. That same cold front starting the lake snows will produce some isolated showers tonight into Thursday before cooler temperatures allow for some flurries to mix in. Ahead of the front it will be very mild today, well above normal at 14C. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler tomorrow and Friday remaining near 5C and quite windy out of the west up to 50km/h. Arctic air moving into the Rockies and Prairies will retreat back north again, so I expect very little of it to reach us here in the east. It appears next week will be mild again with no big storms on the horizon and temperatures back to above normal values.

Record Highs

2011-11-15T08:21:00.003-05:00

It was unseasonably warm across southern Quebec and Ontario on Monday with numerous record highs broken. They included 18.6C at Trudeau Airport in Montreal, and 18.2 at St. Hubert. St Anicet near the Ontario border was 19C but this fell just short of the record 19.8C set in 1994. It is cooler today with a high of 12C forecast, but that is still well above the normal high of 5C for November 15. Meanwhile severe weather spread from Arkansas to western New York yesterday in the warm air with reports of hail, high winds and even tornadoes. Damage was observed in may locations across Ohio and Indiana.

Out west arctic cold is plunging into Alberta and Saskatchewan and even west along the BC coast. Snow and windy conditions are accompanying the cold. It is -9C is Edmonton this morning with a fresh coating of snow on the ground, and it will be as cold as -20C by Friday morning. As the cold air moves east, it will moderate somewhat, but still be cold enough to produce lake effect snow over the Great Lakes by late Wednesday and Thursday. More on that tonight. The cold air will eventually be into Montral by the end of the weekend with lows below freezing and highs just above at plus 1 or 2C.

Near record highs today

2011-11-14T06:52:00.003-05:00

Warm air continues to invade the St. Lawrence Valley this morning on strong southwest winds. Along the leading edge of the warmer air, shower activity is occurring, that should taper off shortly. Winds will further increase to between 40 and 70km/h for most of the day. The record high for Montreal today is 17.2 set in 1959. If we see a few breaks of sunshine that record may fall with highs forecast close to 16C, again well above normal for mid-November. No snow is in sight at this time through mid-week with just a chance of some flurries by weeks end. It will remain mild through late Wednesday before a strong cold front drops temperatures closer to the normal high of 5C for Montreal. Looking ahead into next week that arctic outbreak I talked about building over Alaska and the arctic region will start to move south into the Rockies and Prairies. Snow and biting cold is expected as far south and east as the northern US and western Great Lakes. It is too soon to tell exactly how far south and east the cold air will move.

Weekend Update

2011-11-11T07:14:00.003-05:00

Take time to remember today with 2 minutes of silence at 11am.

I remember as a child my dad telling me from a very young age how important this day was. We lived such a wonderful life in a big warm and safe home. He made sure I knew why we lived in such a free and safe country. It was the men and women and their families who fought for our freedom or suffered while their loved ones fought, and paid such a high price for our way of life. I never forget that to this day. Remembrance Day and wearing a poppy have always been the very least I can do, we can do to pay tribute to the ultimate sacrifice that many of our fellow Canadians and Americans have paid and continue to pay to ensure our freedom. Please take time to remember today and pay respect to them.

There is lots of weather to talk about today, and I am not sure where to start. I guess our own forecast is a good a place as any. It is noticeably cooler this morning with temperatures close to the freezing point. We will warm just a little to about 5C with mostly cloudy skies and an increasing northwest wind up to 50km/h. Most of the weekend looks cloudy, with temperatures near normal and perhaps a shower or two. It will be milder to start next week, but remain cloudy. That wind is in response to low pressure in Atlantic Canada. That cold front that moved through Montreal yesterday is now in the Maratimes with moisture streaming northward along it from Tropical Storm Sean. That will ensure a very wet and windy day across our east coast with over 50mm of rain forecast. Meanwhile in Ontario, cold northwest winds are producing the first lake effect snow of the season south of Lake Huron. Snow will accumulate 5-10cm today in places like Barrie. Temperatures are mild enough that most of it may melt on the roads, but a slushy coating is possible and visibilities will be low.

Looking ahead some of the coldest air of the season is pooling over the arctic and Alaska. Temperatures are forecast to plunge well below freezing with snow next week across the west. That cold air is expected to work its way into eastern Canada by next weekend. While it is too early for specifics, we could see our first wintry precipitation in Montreal by next weekend. You are forewarned as promised.

The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald

2011-11-10T07:24:00.002-05:00

The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
And a wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the captain did too,
T'was the witch of November come stealin'.

Today is the 36th anniversary of the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald with the loss of all 29 on board just off Whitefish Point, Michigan on Lake Superior. The ship was sunk by a serious of misfortunes exasperated by a November Witch. These are strong Great Lakes gales that form over Colorado and bomb out (strengthen rapidly) over the central Great Lakes. They can produce heavy precipitation and hurricane force winds. They whip the lakes into a frenzy with 20 foot seas or higher. In the case of the November 10th, 1975 Witch, it was estimated wave heights were as much as 25 feet. The ship sank quickly and catastrophically, virtually disappearing off radar screens in a matter of seconds.

We have a similar but much weaker storm over the Great Lakes today with heavy snow across Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan overnight. Some locations have recorded a foot of heavy wet snow. The snow has spread into central northern Ontario where up to 20cm fell overnight in Wawa and points north. Gale warnings are posted for much of the western Great Lakes with winds up to 100km/h (60mph) possible. The first lake effect snow of the season is also occurring over western upper Michigan today.

2011-11-09T07:16:00.003-05:00

Sat image of a powerful fall storm bearing down on the west coast of Alaska this morning. (Russia on the left, Alaska on the right).

It is another fair and mild morning in Montreal today, and we are certainly on borrowed time this late in the season. The normal high for today is 7C, we are currently 8C and are expecting highs once again close to 16C. Skies will be sunny with a warm southwest wind developing by afternoon. The record high for today is 19C set in 1945. We may have enough warm air and sunshine to challenge this, but I think the record highs will remain across Vermont and New York where they may see a 20C high or two. The nice weather will come to an end Thursday as low pressure and an associated cold front lift from Michigan into Ontario. Rain will develop on Thursday with increasing winds and lowering temperatures. There is even a shot at some flurries by Friday, especially north of Montreal and across the Townships. The cold will be short lived as milder weather is expected by the end of the weekend and into next week.

That same storm that will bring us rain, produced some wet snow overnight in Kansas City and across Iowa. The snow will spread into western Michigan today and northern Ontario where up to 15cm of wet snow is possible. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Wawa, Kapuskasing and Hearst areas today. Strong winds over 50km/h will make it feel much colder than the 0C highs expected.

Epic Alaskan storm: The National Weather Service is forecasting a record storm for the coast of Alaska today. The low pressure area over the Bearing Sea is as powerful as a hurricane with widespread 80mph winds expected, heavy snow and rain and high pounding surf and surge for the west coast of Alaska. I checked this morning and Nome was 27F with heavy snow and 40mph winds. Needless to say widespread storm warnings are in effect and travel is not advised. The weather service calls the storm dangerous and life threatening.

2011-11-08T07:20:00.003-05:00

A late season tornado near Tipton, Oklahoma on Monday.

A very mild air mass remains over southern Quebec this morning with Montreal already above our normal daytime high for November 8. We are currently 7C after a high of 15C on Monday. Expect more of the same today after some fog and mist burns off this morning, temperatures will soar under bright sunshine to 16C. The same holds true for Wednesday, before a frontal system and associated low pressure area cross Quebec on Thursday and Friday with windy, wet weather and dropping temperatures.

We have an active weather pattern across the central portion of the continent with low pressure lifting north from Texas into the Great Lakes today. East of the center in the warm air thunderstorms produced tornadoes yesterday in Oklahoma with a farm destroyed near Tipton. The same storm system will produce more sever weather today across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley's, and is prompting a Winter Storm Watch across the upper peninsula of Michigan and eastern Wisconsin for Wednesday. A general 15cm of wet snow is possible in these regions extending north into northwest Ontario north of Lake Superior on Wednesday.

SEAN - Meanwhile the tropical Atlantic is showing some signs of life as sub-tropical storm Sean formed overnight. The storm is located about 720km southwest of Bermuda and is nearly stationary this morning with 45mph winds. The system is expected to remain weak and eventually merge with a frontal boundary over the open waters of the Atlantic. Sean is however enough of a threat for the Bermuda Government to issue a tropical storm watch for the island nation effective at 7am local time today.

Warm week ahead in Quebec

2011-11-07T07:13:00.006-05:00

Temperatures are rapidly on the rise this morning after we flirted with the freezing point overnight. A general frost has covered everything outside but that should melt away quickly as temperatures soar to well above normal highs of 15C in Montreal today. The record high today is 20C set in 1975. We won't come near that but temperatures will be more than double the normal of 6C. Montreal and the entire region can expect sunshine today and again on Tuesday. The next chance of rain won't come until Thursday. As we look ahead to next weekend, sharply colder air and flurries are likely by Sunday. Oh by the way we had 8.4cm of snow in Montreal on this day in 1981, so November goes either way. Enjoy the sunshine today.

Meanwhile the cold and snow are out west across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. (Global image above of Saskatoon on Sunday). Temperatures are a cold -10C in Regina and Calgary this morning and a fresh 10-15cm of snow is on the ground in southern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba. The rain has even changed to snow in Winnipeg this morning at -1C. The RCMP were advising drivers to stay of the Trans Canada Highway in Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon after dozens of accidents occurred. Roads were icy, snow packed and visibilities were low in blowing snow. The storm causing the wintry precipitation is moving northeast towards Hudson Bay. Another area of low pressure organizing in Texas will begin to lift north towards Lake Superior on Tuesday. This storm will be responsible for severe weather in Texas and Oklahoma, and another snowstorm for the northern plains and northwest Ontario. The snow in Ontario, north of Lake Superior, will likely amount to more than 15cm, with strong winds as well, so warnings are likely to be issued later today or Tuesday.

Weekend Update

2011-11-05T06:28:00.004-04:00

Calgary Herald photo of a city bus stranded on an icy street on Friday.

It is a very chilly start to the day across the region with temperatures in the -2 to -6C. A hard frost has virtually killed off anything still growing as winter begins to slowly establish itself across Canada. Yesterday sunshine prevailed in Montreal while south and east of the city in the Townships and south into Vermont scattered snow flurries were observed. The weekend looks excellent for any outdoor adventures whether it be hiking to see the remaining colors of the season, winterizing your home or dare I say putting up the Christmas lights. Today will be sunny and plus 7C in Montreal and southern Quebec, back down to -1C tonight and up to an above normal high of plus 10C with sunshine on Sunday. The tranquil weather will prevail to start the week before low pressure ushers in rain and eventually colder air by late next week.

That cold air this morning is across the west as an arctic front presses south into Montana. The front dropped temperatures into the minus teens in Calgary with that cities first dose of snow yesterday. Nearly 350 accidents were reported snarling traffic across the city. Today low pressure will move across extreme eastern Montana and into Manitoba. Snow will fall from eastern Montana into North Dakota, Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan with 5 to 15cm likely. The snow will be driven by 70km/h winds by late tonight making travel across the southern prairies rather dangerous with low visibility and icy roads. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon but it will remain blustery and cold.

Fair weather in the east

2011-11-02T07:20:00.006-04:00

A portion of I-70 in Colorado remains closed today due to heavy snow and strong winds.

The question on everyone's lips lately is when are we going to see our first snow in Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario? Not anytime soon is my short, less complicated answer. Don't worry I will let you know well in advance. It looks like high pressure will give us a decent stretch of fair weather with normal temperatures right into this upcoming weekend. The only threat for clouds and showers will come late Thursday as a weak cold front crosses the region. This will be an ideal weekend to get outdoors and get your place ready for winter. Temperatures will be between 12 and 15C today, lowering to 9C or so into the weekend. Lows will be near the freezing point.

The main storm energy remains to our south across the US. This time Colorado and Wyoming are being affected by a blizzard this morning. An arctic front is pouring cold air across Alberta and BC and into the Rockies while moisture is moving in from the southwest. The combination of fresh snow, 5-10 inches worth, and 40mph north winds is producing very dangerous travel weather in Colorado and western Nebraska. A portion of I-70 has been closed as are numerous schools. Conditions will only improve on Thursday. Much colder air is also poised to spread across the Rockies and into the southern Prairies by the weekend. Snow and cold weather is forecast in Saskatchewan and eventually Manitoba by Saturday.

A November break

2011-11-01T07:22:00.003-04:00

One last image of the big snows this weekend, this one from West Milford, New Jersey from Fox News. Over 19 inches of snow nearly 50cm fell there. I travel into that area every May, and it is just slightly elevated thus a degree or two colder than metro NYC.

I can`t believe Halloween is over and November is here. It still amazes me summer is over. I have been in total denial, even after I was shelling out hundreds for new winter tires this past weekend and watching the record snow pile up across the interior of the Northeast US. That storm by the way broke all kinds of records up and down the coast and into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Power remains out to nearly 2 million this morning as the clean up continues. Milder weather is on tap for much of the region as high pressure dominates the middle part of the week. It will be seasonable with cold overnight lows near freezing and daytime highs near 10C. A cold front late Thursday will give us some sprinkles or showers in Ontario and Quebec and then we can expect sunshine and cooler weather for the weekend.

Out west the first really cold arctic air mass of the season is getting ready to spread from the Yukon into northern BC with snow and below freezing temperatures. The arctic front will settle across BC and Alberta by the weekend.

Lots of pictures and video of the snow HERE.

A dry Halloween

2011-10-31T07:12:00.007-04:00

An AP photo of the Halloween snowstorm this past weekend.

Below: thousands of trees fell on cars and power lines

across New England.

Happy Halloween everyone, expect partly cloudy skies for trick or treating tonight in Montreal, with temperatures around 5C. We are looking at a dry week until Thursday with temperatures right around normal for the start of November.

That was one scary storm this past weekend, as portions of the east coast from Newfoundland to New Jersey were hammered by 100km/h winds and a record breaking 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow. The hardest hit areas stretched from Northwest New Jersey into Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and New Hampshire where as much as 30 inches of snow fell. The snow brought down a tremendous amount of trees onto houses, power lines and cars. Extra hydro crews are scrambling into the region today to restore power to more than 2.5 million homes. As impressive as that amount is, it is down from nearly 4 million at the height of the storm. Over 800,000 lost power in Connecticut alone shattering the record just set by Hurricane Irene this summer. Some of the more impressive numbers included 32 inches of snow at Peru, Mass, and a 133km/h wind gust at Grand Etang, Newfoundland. Even Metro NYC got in on the act with over 2 inches of snow in Central Park, the most in October since the days of the Civil War! Eight deaths are being blamed on the storm and damage estimates will run into the hundreds of millions. The clean up is underway on this Halloween Monday, and will be helped by much warmer air in the region this week, but it could take up to a week to connect the power in the hardest hit areas.

Locally we had just some cloud cover and gusty winds in Montreal from the storm as the system passed too far south. You had to go south of Burlington before you encountered the snow. Accumulations in Vermont ranged from a trace at Burlington to nearly 10 inches in southern Vermont along the Mass border.

Storm Update

2011-10-29T11:23:00.006-04:00

UNREAL - New England Thruway in metro NYC in heavy snow at noon today.

Highland County, Virginia this morning (AccuWeather)

Precipitation continues to spread northward this morning from Virginia into Maryland and into the northeast. Heavy wet snow has already blanketed portions of northern Virginia with as much as 7 inches. Snow is also falling in southern New York State and Pennsylvania. The snow will spread into Vermont and New Hampshire later today into this evening. All this precipitation is in response to low pressure deepening rapidly off the Carolina coast. That storm will lift quickly to the north and east to be near Cape Cod on Sunday morning and finally into Atlantic Canada. Heavy snow and rain will spread along the storm track with strong winds from 30 to 55mph in gusts. Besides the heavy snow, coastal flooding is also occurring with this storm. Already this morning nearly 40,000 people are without power in VA, MD and PA due to heavy wet snow taking down trees and wires and that number will certainly grow today. Montreal will remain on the northern edge of the cloud shield from the storm with the snow making it no further than the southern Townships where 5cm is expected to fall close to the US border with Vermont and New Hampshire.

Big Nor'Easter

2011-10-28T22:36:00.003-04:00

Oh so close. The seasons first big snowstorm should miss Montreal.

An early season snowstorm is taking shape tonight across the middle Atlantic and into the northeast. Snowstorms in late October are not uncommon, I have experienced them in Saskatchewan and in Ontario. What makes this unusual is how far south the snow is expected to fall. Low pressure currently over Virginia will re develop as a major coastal low off the Carolina coast on Saturday. Strengthening northerly winds on the backside of the storm will pull down just enough cold air to change rain to snow inland. Heavy rain will fall along the coast with strong winds and coastal flooding. A cold rain will overspread the region from Maryland and Virginia northeast into southern interior New England on Saturday and gradually change to heavy wet snow late in the evening. Winter Storm Warnings are scattered from southern Vermont across New York and into Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia. The wet snow will accumulate at least 6 inches in these locations with as much as 12 inches quite possible in a swath across southeastern New York into Massachusetts. The wet snow will likely pull down trees and power lines across the northeast and New England.

If you are travelling to Sherbrooke or the Eastern Townships (Highway 10) late Saturday or early Sunday, expect to encounter snow there as well. Only 2-4cm (1-2 inches) is forecast as Quebec remains at this time on the northern edge of the storm. Montreal can expect increasing cloud cover, cool temperatures and a gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h by late Saturday as a result of the storm. No snow is forecast for Montreal at this time. The storm will move into Atlantic Canada on Sunday with heavy snow, rain and strong winds.

Weekend Update

2011-10-28T07:22:00.004-04:00

Major snow south of Montreal in southern New England

It is a frosty morning in Montreal with temperatures down below freezing across the region including -1C at Trudeau Airport and here on Ile Perrot. Partly sunny skies will prevail today with temperatures at 5C. The weekend for southern Quebec looks decent with chilly conditions, frequent cloudy periods, but dry weather is expected.

Weekend Snowstorm?

Yesterday was chilly and breezy with a heavy cloud cover all day as low pressure skirted across the middle Atlantic region. All the precipitation from this storm remained south of the border with up to 7 inches of snow in southern Vermont. That storm is now affecting Newfoundland with high winds and up to 10cm of wet snow across the Avalon this afternoon. While high pressure will keep us dry this weekend, another potent storm is taking shape along the US east coast. It is forecast to move north and eat and lie near Cape Cod by Saturday night. The storm will then rapidly move into Atlantic Canada. Already this morning Winter Storm Watches are in effect for southern interior New England for Saturday night. It looks like a 12 hour period of heavy wet snow is possible with up to 6 inches likely especially across the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut.. At this time it appears the snow will stay south of Montreal but I will keep a close watch on this system today so check back here and on my twitter link for updates.

Hard freeze tonight

2011-10-27T07:10:00.005-04:00

Heavy snow on the Burgeo Highway, Newfoundland on Wednesday (CBC.ca).
Full Details HERE

Temperatures will drop well below freezing in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario tonight bringing and end to the growing season. We have already had frost in most locations but tonight the region will see widespread temperatures in the -3 to -5C range that will last for several hours. That is the bad news, the good news is that the weather looks dry now right into the weekend. The pattern of late is shifting the storm track well south of our region across southern New England. This morning light snow is falling across the higher elevations of southern New York into southern Vermont and the Berkshires of Massachusetts, and it will slide east off the coast. That storm will move off the east coast and affect Atlantic Canada on Friday. Another potent low is forecast to develop along the middle Atlantic over the weekend and move north with precipitation and wind. It is also expected at this time to remain well south and east of Montreal. So in summary we can expect cloud cover and cool temperatures into the weekend, but little in the way of precipitation. It will be chilly with daytime highs in the plus 5 to 8C range and nighttime lows, as mentioned below freezing to -3C In the city. Halloween looks dry at the moment with cool temperatures.

SNOW

That snowstorm in Colorado yesterday dumped as much as 40cm (14 inches) of snow in the ski areas with about 15cm (6 inches) in Denver. The heavy wet snow dropped trees on power lines and forced the closure of schools. Meanwhile a powerful storm along the eastern coast of Newfoundland produced damaging winds and heavy snow and rain. The classic coastal storm bombed out rapidly producing heavy precipitation and strong winds. Winds gusted between 70 and 110km/h in places like Gander, Burgeo and Twillingate. Snow also blanketed many parts of the province including Gander. Waves and surge caused damage in some coastal communities. Winds remain strong in Newfoundland today, and wind warnings have been posted for many portions of the province. Additionally a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for southeast Newfoundland for the next storm that is expected to approach the area from New England on Friday.

Cool weather

2011-10-26T07:10:00.003-04:00

CDOT traffic camera of snow falling this morning north of Denver.

The forecast for the balance of the week is finally becoming a little more clear (pardon the pun). The threat for precipitation, at least for Montreal is somewhat less now with more sunshine expected. High pressure over the area this morning will push storm system 1 to our south taking with it any threat for snow or rain. Radar is showing this trend this morning with clouds to our south and light precipitation staying in Vermont and NY. The second more potent storm that is giving Colorado its first snowstorm of the season this morning will also be pushed south of the region late Thursday. All precipitation should remain to our south over New York and southern Vermont. However one thing that will be noticeable to end the week, is the cooler weather. Temperatures will be below normal into the weekend with cool daytime highs of 4 to 7C (39 to 45F) and overnight lows to about -3C (27F) in the city and colder in the suburbs with frost and a hard freeze likely.

Heavy snow is falling across portions of northern Colorado this morning which as much as 6 inches reported. Lesser amount have fallen in Denver with 1 to 3 inches so far, but amazing when you think they had a record high of 80F on Monday. CDOT is reporting roads becoming snow covered and slippery across portions of the state with more snow and gusty winds forecast today. It is only 28F (-2C) in Denever this morning with light snow.

Hurricane Rina continues to meander just off the Yucatan coast this morning with 110mph winds. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has centered the storm about 385km southeast of Cozumel drifting west at 5mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect as far north as Cancun as the category 2 storm slowly drifts along the coastline and then northeast towards south Florida and northern Cuba over the next 48 hours. Torrential rain of 8-16 inches and a surge up to 7 feet is forecast for the Yucatan coast including Cancun later today and tonight. While the storm may briefly reach category 3 strength today, forecasters expect Rina to begin to weaken in response to land, wind shear and cooler water temperatures. The storm still needs to be monitored closely for any impact on Florida and the southeast US coast into the weekend.

Hurricane Rina

2011-10-25T07:15:00.005-04:00

Hurricane Rina slowly drifting towards the Yucatan. (NOAA Image)

We have been given a reminder that the 2011 hurricane season is not quite over yet. As a matter of fact it has about 5 weeks to go and we have a rapidly developing nasty little hurricane in the Caribbean Sea east of Honduras heading towards the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rina has wind speeds of 100mph making her a category 2 storm. Indications are that the storm will further intensify today and become a major hurricane. The storm is located about 335km southwest of Grand Caymen Island and slowly drifting towards the west northwest. The Government of Mexico has posted a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula including Cancun and Cozumel. The storm is forecast to brush the coastline later this week before heading northeast towards Cuba. It is way too soon to forecast if it will affect Florida or the US mainland at this time.

Snow?

Wild weather is expected across the Western US during the next 24 hours. A potent storm is gathering steam and is expected to become the seasons first snowstorm for portions of the Rockies. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the inter mountain west including metro Denver. Now just think, Denver hit a record high of 81F yesterday while they were under a winter storm watch. That has since been upgraded to a warning with 6 to 10 inches of snow expected by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are around 57F this morning but will continue to fall to below freezing tonight and remain there on Wednesday in the snow.

That system is forecast to approach the east coast by the weekend with rain and snow possible in New England. Computer models are all over the place this week, so forecaster confidence is low. The best we can do for Montreal and southern Quebec is to tell you to expect near or slightly below normal temperatures into the weekend with a chance of showers early today and again on Thursday. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix by the weekend. In between expect sunshine and cooler temperatures for Wednesday and again Friday. Overnight lows will be below freezing into the weekend.

Snow this week?

2011-10-24T07:12:00.002-04:00

There has been lots of chatter about a possible snowfall later this week. I was going to write about it on the weekend but I thought I would let the hype settle down a little. First of all it is only snow, it happens every year. Secondly I don't think it will amount to to much. We start things off this week with bright sunshine and fairly mild temperatures today. It is chilly at the moment with 4C in Montreal but should warm nicely under the sunshine and a southwest flow today to 16C. A cold front approaching from the west will trigger showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder this evening until about midnight. That will be followed by gusty northwest winds up to 50km/h and cloudy skies into Tuesday with cooler temperatures in the 10C range.

The next threat for precipitation will come late Thursday as low pressure organizes in the southern US and heads for the Eastern seaboard. Depending on the exact path of the system we could see a rain/snow mix overnight into Friday morning. At this time the heaviest snow would be across the upper elevations of New York and Vermont and perhaps the Townships. But the possibility does exist for even a slushy accumulation on some surfaces in the valley. There is lots of uncertainty in the forecast so we will have to wait and see, stay tuned for more.

Weekend Update

2011-10-21T07:25:00.002-04:00

The storm system that affected the region yesterday producing strong winds and heavy rainfall from Ontario to Atlantic Canada, continues to meander northeast of Montreal this morning. Light rain is still falling in the city after about 40mm in the last 36 hours. Peak winds in Montreal approached 70km/h with the storm. There were also some decent thunderstorms yesterday afternoon that developed in New York state and swept across the city from the south. They produced torrential rains and strong winds around 4pm. Some minor flooding along roadways was reported slowing the evening commute, but little else. In Ontario the storm produced heavy rain as well with 78mm at Hamilton. Peak winds in the GTA were around 80km/h, stronger along the immediate Great Lakes shorelines. Tree damage and power outages were reported. The same storm system also produced heavy rain in Atlantic Canada with 110.6mm of rain in Halifax.

The weekend in southern Quebec looks typical for late October. While it will not be a washout by any means, there will be a chance of a persistent annoyance shower or two on both Saturday and Sunday. We may see a few sunny breaks, but don't count on too much sunshine. Temperatures will be near normal with highs around 11C and lows around 6C.

Big fall storm weakens

2011-10-20T07:17:00.005-04:00

An angry Lake Michigan yesterday.

A big spin of low pressure over Ohio is slowly weakening this morning as it moves northeast into Ontario and eventually southern Quebec. The storm is really our first of what will be many strong cyclonic storms this fall season. Typically fueled by cold Arctic air and warm tropical air these storms deepen rapidly in the Midwest US and head for the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence Valley. This storm has produced very heavy rain especially across Ontario last evening (25-50mm) and overnight in southern Quebec. Montreal had about 15mm, most of that falling in a torrential downpour around 3am complete with lightning and thunder. The other story with this storm have been the strong winds. Wind gusts in the 60 and 70km/h range in the Montreal area have caused some minor damage and scattered power outages overnight. Further west across Illinois and Wisconsin on the colder the back side of the system, strong northerly winds over 100km/h (60mph) have whipped Lake Michigan into a frenzy with 25 foot waves and lake shore flooding.

The storm is weakening so conditions will slowly improve today. A few more showers and even a rumble of thunder is possible in southern Quebec. Winds will remain gusty all day but abate overnight tonight. The weekend looks gray and chilly at this time, typical October weather.

Strong winds...again

2011-10-19T07:15:00.002-04:00

We have a strong low pressure area packed with tropical moisture taking shape over Kentucky this morning. The storm will lift north in southern and eastern Ontario over the next 24 to 36 hours. After another cloudy day in Montreal today, look for rain to overspread the area from south to north overnight and Thursday. The rain will be the heaviest west of the storm center over Ontario. Heavy rainfall warnings are in effect for southwest Ontario where up to 50mm is forecast. Less will fall in Montreal with about 25mm expected. The bigger story here in the St. Lawrence Valley will be the strong northeast winds. They will increase to between 30 and 50km/h today and further intensify to 50 to 80km/h tonight, just below warning criteria. Meanwhile around Quebec City and along the north shore of Lake Ontario, winds will exceed 90km/h therefore a high wind warning is in effect. The entire system will move northeast of the forecast area by Friday with a blustery wind and cooler temperatures expected into the weekend. Our high today will reach 13C, with milder air in the rain on Thursday at 18C before a cool down Friday and into the weekend around 10C.

Wet - windy week

2011-10-18T07:21:00.003-04:00

It is definitely October. The walk with Bella this morning included gloves and an upgrade in the jacket department. We are at a chilly 9C on Ile Perrot, but it is damp and still breezy. Southern Quebec will remain under the influence of low pressure over James Bay today with a southwest flow of damp air coming off the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be around 13C with the ever present risk of showers.

We have a very stormy weather pattern shaping up for the balance of the week. Low pressure will get organized over the Ohio Valley and tap into moisture from a tropical low near Florida (see NOAA image above). That energy will slowly move northeast into Quebec by late in the week. Look for rain and windy weather to develop late Wednesday and taper to showers by late Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal with all the precipitation in Quebec falling as rain. About 25mm is expected here with as much as 50mm in southern and central Ontario. Meanwhile west of the storm center, colder air will arrive by late Thursday and switch the rain to snow in a swath from north of Sudbury to Timmins. Some models are predicting up to 10cm could fall by Friday. We will see how the storm evolves and tracks, this, however will not produce any snow in Montreal, but it is coming.

Unsettled week ahead

2011-10-17T07:14:00.002-04:00

The wind keeps blowing this morning over southern Quebec, however at much lighter speeds in the 40km/h range. Peak gusts were close to 100km/h over portions of Ontario and Quebec over the weekend, somewhat less in Montreal gusting close to 70km/h at times. Very little in the way of damage was reported here, except for some torn umbrellas and lots and lots of leaves littering the ground. In one week we went from green and yellow leaves to bursts of red to trees stripped bare. The culprit for our weekend weather is a rather stagnant spin of low pressure located near James Bay. This storm will continue to provide gusty southwest winds today with periods of clouds and a stray shower or two. It should ease tomorrow with a few breaks before our next system moves in.

Much stronger low pressure will organize in the deep south with the help of Gulf of Mexico moisture. That plume of moisture will lift into the northeast and New England by Thursday with another round of soaking rain. Early estimates have at least 25mm falling and the possibility exists for as much as 75mm especially across Ontario and New York. Winds will get ramped up again in the 40-60km/h range. On the backside of the storm, snow is even possible across the western Great Lakes. Montreal and our entire area will remain on the warm side of this storm so no snow expected yet.

Strong Winds

2011-10-15T08:16:00.007-04:00

Strong winds whip up waves on Lake Erie yesterday

(AccuWeather Photo)

8pm update: High Wind Warning in effect for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds are increasing from the southwest between 50-90km/h until about 4am when they should start to diminish. The strongest winds are still to our west with gusts reported at 94km/h at Point Petre on Lake Ontario, 80km/h at Kingston, 67km/h at Toronto and 46km/h at Montreal with higher gusts off island. Radar is also showing an area of steady rain heading into southwestern Quebec at 8pm. Temperatures are chilly between 9 and 11C.

A deepening area of low pressure in central Ontario continues to spin towards the northeast this morning. The storm has sent a strong cold front across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec with showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours. Close to 40mm of rain fell here on Ile Perrot in the last 24 hours with more falling this morning. The difference today is it is a cold rain as we are only at 11C on the backside of the cold front. Adding to the misery today are strong southwest winds blowing at 50km/h in Montreal and stronger in Ontario. Gusts have been observed close to 80km/h. Wind warnings are posted for portion of Ontario closest to the lakes. In audition a wind advisory is in effect for northern New York. Winds in the warned areas could approach 90km/h while elsewhere they may be as high as 70km/h. The winds will ease after midnight tonight. Winds this strong are capable of downing tree limbs and power lines. Also take note that lots of leaves are falling off the trees this weekend. Wet leaves can make roads slick and also block sewers and rain gutters. Temperatures will do no better than the norm for this time of year, around 13C and overnight lows around 9C. There is a slim chance for a sunny break or two Sunday.

Looking ahead another big wet and windy fall storm could affect the area by Wednesday. Stay tuned for more on that.

Weekend Update

2011-10-14T07:21:00.005-04:00

Enjoy the colors quickly, with strong winds forecast this weekend, lots of leaves will be hitting the ground.

9:45am UPDATE: Heavy Rain Warnings have been extended to Montreal and the metro region for up to 100mm of rain over the next 24 hours. The heavy rain will cause ponding of water on roads and highways as well as some flooding. Watch for blocked drains and sewers due to leaves.

Low pressure is developing this morning in Ohio and is expected to deepen rapidly and move into Ontario over the weekend. This system will bring strong winds to the region along with showers. This morning we remain under the influence of a low pressure trough swinging through the area. Bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move form south to north from New York into southern Quebec. The rain could be heavy at times with 30-50mm quite likely over the next 24-36 hours. Temperatures will be mild today but gradually cool over the weekend. As the system moves to our north, strong west and southwest winds will develop tonight and last into Saturday. Winds will gust between 40-60km/h in Montreal and locally as high as 80km/h in parts of Ontario and Quebec. Warnings and advisories may be needed for Saturday. Very little sunshine is expected this weekend.

On the backside of this windy system, it will turn sharply colder with rain turning to wet snow in northern Ontario, with as much as 10cm forecast for Pickle Lake and Big Trout Lake.

Unsettled weather

2011-10-13T07:40:00.002-04:00

I must apologize for the lack of weather updates lately. We have a new 22 pound bundle of joy known as Bella, our Terrier. She has my schedule a little upside down these days. She loves to chase leaves, and with only a small percent down in our neighborhood, she has lots of work ahead of her. That will start as early as this weekend and continue into next week as two windy and progressively colder low pressure areas finally make it feel like October. Montreal temperatures, and indeed most of Quebec and Ontario, have been running well above normal, and in some cases double the normal. Our dry weather patter that started on October 3rd, has come to an end this morning as rain showers are moving across the valley. A warm front will lift north of Montreal today with mild and perhaps partly cloudy weather through mid-day Friday. A gusty cold front will then produce some heavier showers and perhaps thunder into Friday evening. The weekend looks very unsettled with much cooler weather and winds gusting up to 50km/h. Looks like lost of leaves blowing in the air for Bella.

Next week another strong low pressure area will produce more rain and wind. On the back side of this next storm some areas around the Great Lakes and upper elevations in Quebec and New York/Vermont could even see a period of wet snow. More on that later.

Jova makes landfall

2011-10-12T07:17:00.005-04:00

Hurricane Jova moved inland overnight near Chamela, Mexico as a category 2 storm. Strong winds in excess of 100mph and heavy rain are spreading inland along the southwest Pacific coast of Mexico. Jova will continue to produce very heavy rain today (from 6-12 inches) as the system moves inland and interacts with the mountains of Mexico.

Our weather remains very pleasant for mid-October. Another mild, dry day is expected across the region before low pressure moves north from the Carolina's and brings an increased threat for rain. Clouds will be thickening an lowering all day with rain spreading from south to north across New York and Vermont and into Quebec by early Thursday morning. We will have a break in the action late Thursday before another front and low pressure area from Ontario bring showers and thunderstorms for Friday. The weekend looks showery and windy with temperatures closer to normal.

A little cooler

2011-10-11T07:28:00.003-04:00

After a splendid weekend that featured abundant sunshine and temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal for Thanksgiving, it is back to reality this week, albeit slowly. A back door cold front spread some clouds yesterday across southern Quebec in the morning and eastern Ontario during the afternoon hours. That did little to affect the temperatures yesterday as once again most regions were at least 22C with several areas up to 24C and higher. Ottawa reached 24C and Toronto 26C. This morning we have noticeably cooler air in place at only 8C to start the day, even cooler in outlying regions away from water and the metro areas. Some fog has formed as well in response to the longer and cooler nights. It will be sunny again today and mild at 18C. Then the stage is set for a long period of poor weather with lowering temperatures.

Low pressure on the Florida coast this morning that produced heavy rain this weekend along with strong winds will slowly move northeast into Georgia and the Carolinas. The system, which really should have been named, will begin to affect southern Quebec and New England by Thursday and into the weekend with showers at first and then a steady rain and increasing winds. Temperatures will also fall to at or below normal by Saturday.

HURRICANE JOVA: One other important note this morning - Hurricane Jova, a major category 3 hurricane with 115mph is heading towards the southwest Mexican coast today. Jova is moving northeast at 6mph, about 130 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Normally hurricanes on the Pacific side of Mexico turn towards the west and begin to weaken over open waters. This storm is responding to a low pressure trough to the north and is moving east towards the coast. Landfall is expected today with high surf, flash floods and strong winds. Warnings are in place, and evacuations have been ordered. This will become a big weather story over the next 48 hours as flash flooding rains spread inland into central and northern Mexico and perhaps the US southwest.

Indian Summer

2011-10-08T12:51:00.003-04:00

Warm and sunny weather is the rule across Ontario, Quebec and New England this weekend. Strong high pressure is producing warm southwest winds with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. Officially Indian Summer is two or three days of above normal temperatures after the first frost. Most regions in southern Quebec were near the freezing mark this past week with a hard freeze in several regions outside the city and in the mountains. Here on Ile Perrot we had temperatures very close to 0C on Thursday morning with frost scattered on the ground and roofs of homes. But there is no frost in the air this weekend as late August conditions are expected. Temperatures will soar to between 20 and 26C across the area on all three days with nothing but sun. At noon today, Montreal is already 21C, the normal high for today is 14C.

Enjoy the Holiday weekend and be safe.