Weather pattern change expected for southern Quebec

The weather this fall has been nothing short of spectacular in Montreal, with abundant sunshine, little rainfall, and temperatures well-above normal. We are starting to see a significant pattern change developing to end November and start December. While we can expect cooler temperatures and perhaps a few snowflakes, the weather will only be adjusting to seasonal normals for late November in Montreal and nothing too drastic. It still may be a shock to the system after such a warm fall.

Cooler wet weather on the way, with perhaps our first snowflakes in Montreal.

Until now most of this fall as been dry and warm. Temperatures have been running well-above normal values, along with sparse rainfall. The weather is expected to change significantly this week, with colder air and more wintry precipitation expected across a large portion of the country.

Before then, we can expect another fairly mild start to the work week, with high temperatures reaching the double digits yet again in Montreal, up to 10C (50F) Monday and Tuesday. A few very light showers Monday, will give way to high pressure and sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the same time, strengthening low pressure will bring a widespread snowfall along with gusty winds and much colder temperatures to the southern Prairie into northwest Ontario. By Thursday a developing upper level low will slip south across the Great Lakes, spinning up low pressure at the surface over southern New England. That storm system will result in a wet, cold and at times white period of weather for our region.

The combination of both systems will introduce slightly cooler air into southern Quebec, along with much needed rainfall, up to 25mm from Thursday into Saturday for Montreal. To date in November, we have only received 30mm of rain at Trudeau Airport. 

Most of our region has been dangerously dry this fall, stretching south into upstate New York and New England. There have been several brush fires, which is very unusual for November in our region. Normal precipitation for the month of November should be 84.2mm, that includes 16.3cm of snow. In October, Montreal only received 25mm of rain, the normal should be close to 103mm.

With cloud cover and a cold rain developing Thursday intoSaturday, temperatures will drop into the lower single digits for highs in Montreal and perhaps close to the freezing point for overnight lows. There may even be some upper elevation snowfall across the Laurentians and Eastern Townships with the system next weekend. Some computer models are hinting at 10-15cm of fresh snow for the ski regions south of Montreal. Time will tell.

SNOW?

Looking ahead, colder weather will prevail to end the month and to start December, with a couple of opportunities for our fist snowflakes of the season here in Montreal. We will get into the details in another post, but it looks like more seasonable weather is on the way. Get those winter tires on!

Colder weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Lest We Forget. Take time today to remember those who have served and continue to serve our great nation, so that we can enjoy the incredible freedom that we have in Canada.

The weather on this Remembrance Day Monday will be somewhat dreary as strong low pressure well north of the St. Lawrence Valley has lifted a warm front across Montreal this morning. If your are heading to any of the outdoor services in Montreal or Ottawa, dress for wet weather. Showers developed overnight and will persist most of the day. Close to 14mm has fallen at my weather station on Ile Perrot, much need moisture. Temperatures are mild, 10C (50F), with gusty southwest winds developing. Despite the cloud cover, the mild push of sir should drive the high today into the middle teens.

A strong cold front will push across the region late today. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the front, down to the freezing point or perhaps below in a few spots by Tuesday morning. Strong southwest winds will develop late Monday, backing to the northwest overnight, gusting to 70km/h at times.

Winter weather has been hard to find across most of southern Canada. That was not the case in Colorado and New Mexico, and across the southern Rockies as strong low pressure produced a huge snowfall for many locations. Close to 50cm fell across the metro Denver region, the biggest November snowstorm in nearly 4 decades. (Accu-Weather Photo)

Some potent showers will accompany the front. Those showers could mix with a little wet snow or flurries overnight, especially across the higher elevations of the Laurentians and Eastern Townships.

Tuesday will be blustery and much colder, with winds of 30-50km/h and daytime highs struggling to reach 5C (41F). The balance of the week will be fair, but chilly. An Atlantic Canada storm system on the weekend may retrograde enough to produce some clouds and precipitation on Saturday, but that is not a certainty at all.

The storm that is affecting Quebec today, produced a record-breaking snowstorm across the southern Rockies in Colorado and New Mexico. Denver had its biggest November snowstorm in decades, with 49cm measured. Other locations south of Denver recorded as much as 135cm. It was a top 5 storms fro many localities across Colorado.

On the warm side of the storm, severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening produced some wind damage across southwest Ontario. There was even a rare November nocturnal tornado warned storm between Goderich and London, very uncommon north of the 45th at this time of year.

Another warm and windy Wednesday in Montreal

Despite the dwindling daylight, November is starting out much the same way the rest of the fall has been to date, warm, dry and windy. With the exception of a few days scattered about, most of the time, temperatures have been above to well-above the long-term average. (Valley Weather)

It seems we have a trend this fall of record-breaking warmth on Wednesdays. Last week we managed back to back records of 22.7C (72F) and 24.4C (76F). Today, the temperature is knocking on the door of the 1948 record of 21.7C (71F) at this hour, currently 21.4C (70F). Record or not, today's high is way above the normal of 7C (45F), but as I wrote last week, what is "normal" anymore when it comes to our weather. 

Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front are responsible for the surge in warm air. They are reaching speeds of 60-70km/h here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Hydro-Quebec is reporting scattered power outages as a result of the wind, with just over 13,000 in the dark.

Temperatures will begin to cool once again this evening, dropping to 9C (48F) tonight and remaining fairly steady on Thursday. A few showers are possible, but the bulk of the moisture with this system will remain well to our north.

High pressure will build into southern Quebec for a sunny, but chill Saturday, before clouds, warmer temperatures and some rainfall arrive for Sunday into Monday.

The current trend of a cool day or two, followed by a significant warming trend is expected to persist well into November.

October was warm and dry in Montreal. We only measured 25mm of rain, well below the normal of 91.3mm. The average temperature at Trudeau Airport was 11C, also well-above the normal of 8.9C.

Rare nocturnal November tornadoes produced widespread damage around Oklahoma City on Saturday night and Sunday morning. (KOCO)

Active Weather

The central portion of the continent has had some very active weather over the course of the past week, including some rare November tornadoes. At least a half dozen tornadoes occurred across parts of Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday. Numerous homes were demolished, with at least 11 injuries reported. There were also reports of significant flash flooding, with up to 300mm of rain falling from north Texas into Missouri.

NOAA satellite image of strengthening hurricane Rafael on Wednesday morning, located 205 kilometres south of Havana, Cuba.

Meanwhile the topics have awakened again. Early Wednesday morning, Rafael became a hurricane, located 205 km south, southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael has 175km/h winds and is expected to strengthen to a category 3 storm before landfall in western Cuba late Wednesday. Forecasters then expect the storm to meander around the southern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, while weakening. So far the only impacts to the US mainland are expected to be gusty winds and a 3 foot storm surge in the lower Florida Keys.

Record-breaking warm Halloween for Montreal

This certainly is a most sincere pumpkin patch. Perhaps this and the record-breaking warmth forecast in Montreal for Halloween will allow us to finally meet The Great Pumpkin!

Warm and windy Halloween forecast for Trick or Treating in Montreal.

It is hard to believe that Halloween is upon us and equally hard to believe we are going to have temperatures in the middle 20s. A warm front lifted northeast across the St. Lawrence Valley late on Tuesday, ushering in warm southwest winds. Temperatures have soared in Montreal on Wednesday, reaching 23C (73F) on Ile Perrot as I write. That is 14 degrees above normal. It is currently 22.5 C (72F) at Trudeau Airport, breaking the record for today's date of 21.3C set in 2012.

On Thursday, we will break the record high of 21.7C (71F) that was established way back on Halloween in 1956. The forecast high is 23C (73F), but it may be even warmer, depending on cloud cover. This occurring in the same week when we had our coldest morning so far this season, -6C on Monday morning. Many locations even had some snow on the ground late Monday across eastern Ontario and northern New England. It truly is a roller coaster ride this season.

Cold temperatures and gusty winds early this week allowed the leaves to fall in bunches on Ile Perrot and across the Montreal region. Another round of strong winds is expected Thursday and Friday, first from the southwest up to 50km/h, backing to the northwest on Friday, 20-40km/h. That should pull down many of the remaining leaves from the trees across Southern Quebec.

The warm front produced about 8mm of rain in the Montréal region Tuesday, while across the Ottawa Valley, some surprise pop up thunderstorms produced heavy rain and hundreds of lightning strikes.

Partly cloudy skies and very warm temperatures are expected on Thursday, ahead of a cold front. Gusty southwest winds will reach speeds of 30-50km/h, likely blowing what is left of the leaves off the trees. The weather should remain dry for Trick or Treaters, with showers moving in towards the end of the evening as a cold front arrives from Ontario.

That front will drop temperatures sharply all day Friday to lows of -1C (30F) by Saturday morning. The weekend should be fair, but chilly, especially in relation to our current weather. Expect daytime high temperatures between 6C-10C (43F-50F).

No major cold spells or snow is in our future at this time.

The October temperature roller coaster ride continues

A tradition of mine that goes back years is to take a photo with the date of the first frost each year. Over the years, it has been as early as September and most recently as late as mid-November. This year was right around the average here on Ile Perrot, last Thursday, October 17, when the temperatures dipped to 0C (32F) at my home. More frost is expected by next Monday, but the growing season has officially come to end for our region for 2024. 

At times this month the weather has resembled that of an actual October in Montreal. Other days, we have had summerlike temperatures, that would include Wednesday, when highs sat just below the 1979 record of 25C (77F). I recorded 24.7C (76F) at my home on Ile Perrot, with the warmest air in the country located across eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec along the St. Lawrence Valley. Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front, helped to boost the mercury. It was the fourth day in a row of 20C plus temperatures and the 7th time in October. The normal high should be 12C (54F), with a low of 3C (38F).

Spectacular weather and bursting colours reaching peak, allowed for great foliage viewing this past weekend across southwestern Quebec. Gusty winds up to 60km/h and cooler overnight temperatures are starting to strip the leaves form the trees as we pass peak viewing here in Montreal. 

The warm temperatures followed a week where many locations had thick frost and freezing temperatures, with snow falling across the mountain tops. That brings us to this morning. A potent cold front moved through the region late Wednesday and overnight, with some showers, but mostly a wind shift to the northwest and dropping temperatures. Montreal is currently 7C (45F) and will warm only slightly today to around 10C (50F) with clearing skies. Moderate winds will make it feel quite cold outdoors, especially after our summer warmth of late.

The cold air is with us for the weekend, reinforced by another cold front Saturday. We will likely have more frost again Sunday night. The cold will not last long as the roller coaster ride persists. Another warm front late Tuesday will push highs again to or even above 20C by next Wednesday.

At this time we are looking at a breezy Halloween, with mild temperatures and perhaps a shower or two, but the forecast is a week out and the timing of the weather systems may change. Only slightly cooler air is anticipated for the start of November, as our very mild and dry fall continues.

Speaking of precipitation, only 1-2mm of rain fell on Wednesday afternoon, bringing the monthly total to 17.4mm. Normal rainfall for October in Montreal should be 89.1mm. Montreal had a record-breaking wet summer, but only 70mm of rain has been measured since September 1st.

After the first frost and snow, a significant warming trend forecast for Quebec & Ontario

Many regions outside of Montreal have had their first frost, freezing temperatures and even snow already this season. Tonight should be the first frost in metro Montreal. This week over 25cm of snow fell across many of the highest elevations of the Eastern Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Meanwhile here in Montreal it was cold, blustery 5 to 6mm of light rain. The month remains dry, with only 15.2mm falling a Trudeau Airport so far. (Photo Sugarbush Resort)

Frost Advisory in effect for southern Quebec

The growing season should come to end across our region Thursday and Friday mornings, as strong high pressure noses into the region. Light winds and clearing skies will allow temperature to fall rapidly after sunset. As a result, lows will drop to the freezing point in the city and below outside the metropolitan area.

While frost and even some snow have occurred across many parts of Quebec and New England this past week, we have yet to see any frost here in Montreal so far. With overnight lows in the 0C to -3C (27F to 32F) range by Thursday morning, that should change tonight for most of us.

The weather definitely felt like fall this week in Montreal. Temperatures were well-below normal through Wednesday, along with clouds and gusty winds. We have a couple of frosty mornings ahead, before strong high pressure ushers in much warmer air across southern Quebec through the upcoming weekend and beyond. (Valley Weather Photo)

Slow moving low pressure has been responsible for our chilly weather of late, with gusty northwest winds, showers and daytime highs under 10C (50F). The aforementioned high pressure that is building into our region will usher in a significant pattern change. Expect sunny days and clear nights through at least next Tuesday. Temperatures will start off chilly but warm to the middle and upper teens by the weekend, and close to 21C (70F) by early next week here in Montreal. The normal high/low for mid-October should be 12C (54F) and 3C (38F).

The showers that we have been experiencing in valley locations this past week, have been falling as now in many locations across the higher elevations of the Beauce, Eastern Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Elevations above 4000 feet, including Jay Peak, Mount Mansfield and Whiteface Mountain, which have received 25-40cm of fresh snow this week.

October-like weather just in time for Thanksgiving

A starry chilly morning on Monday, October 7, the coldest so far this fall, with morning lows near 2.8C (37F) here on Ile Perrot along with scattered frost. Many locations across Canada witnessed the northern lights this past week, but they were not visible at my home due to light pollution. (Valley Weather Photo)

The weather will finally start behaving like October here in Montreal. After an extremely warm September and early October, cooler weather arrived this week, just in time for the Thanksgiving long weekend. Temperatures have tumbled into the single digits for overnight lows, and have been struggling to reach 10C (50F) this week, along with clouds, gusty winds at times and a few sprinkles. The culprit has been a stubborn upper low moving slowly across southern Quebec from the Great Lakes.

Personally, I find it very cold. I think the warm September is to blame. I only began this week to wear jackets and long-sleeved shirts, prior to that it was all shorts. In recent years we have all become accustomed to the later arrival of fall and eventually winter weather. This has pushed our averages back by almost a month, so when the cooler weather does finally arrive, it can be quite a shock to the system. Even the foliage has been very slow to respond this autumn in Montreal, with plenty of green leaves still around. That may change in the next week or so.

We have still not received any general frost in the Montreal region, although we came close on Monday morning, when the low was 3C (38F). The weather remains rather dry as compared to our summer, with only 6.4mm of rainfall for the month of October at Trudeau Airport to date.

We can expect another chilly, cloudy day Thursday, with a high around 10C (50F). Friday will be the best day of the week and possibly for the next week and beyond, with sunny skies and an unseasonably warm high of 18C (65F). The normal high should be around 13C (55F). Enjoy the weather as we have a pattern change starting with the arrival of a cold front late in the day.

Expect a partly cloudy, chilly weekend, with a few showers around and daytime highs of 10 to 13C (50 to 55F) and overnight lows around 6C (43F). Another stronger cold front Sunday evening will usher in the coldest air this fall, along with some light rain. Monday will be cloudy, breezy and cold, with a daytime high of only 6C (43F) and and overnight low of 3C (38F). The colder air will remain with us next week.

Hurricane Milton makes landfall at Siesta Key, Florida

Hurricane Milton generated over three dozen tornadoes across the state of Florida with widespread damage observed including above at Palm Beach Gardens. (WeatherMatrix)

Powerful hurricane Milton moved inland Wednesday evening around 8:30PM near Siesta Key, Florida, just west of Sarasota. The storm had winds of 195km/h (120mph) at landfall. There were reports of significant damage in many locations, as winds gusted to 172km/h (107mph) at Venice Beach.

Thursday morning, Milton has moved back over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, located 120KM east-northeast of Cape Canaveral. Milton will now transition into a strong extratropical storm passing south of Bermuda over the next day or so.

Over 300mm of rain fell in just a few hours north of the track of hurricane Milton, producing widespread flash flooding. (St John's County Sherriff)

Back in Florida, power is out to over three million homes and businesses. Widespread damage has occurred, including a crane collapsing on the Tampa Bay Times Newspaper building in St. Pete, and the destruction of the roof at Tropicana Place, home of the MLB Rays in Tampa.

The big story with Milton will likely be the large tornado outbreak. Tornadoes are very common with landfalling hurricane, but they tend to be weaker and short-lived compared to their midwestern cousins. Such was not the case with Milton on Wednesday. Over 125 tornado warnings were issued across the state, with 38 confirmed tornadoes. Many of them were large, long-lasting wedge tornadoes, producing significant damage, injuries and loss of life. In St Lucie County, 4 deaths were reported.

Hydro One from Ontario has sent additional crews south to help with power restoration in Florida. Over 100 employees were already on the ground in Georgia helping to restore power lost during Hurricane Helene. (Hydro One)

In St Petersburg, over 400mm of rain fell in just a few hours producing flash flooding.

First responders are spreading out across the state Thursday morning to assess damage and search for those who may be injured or trapped in their homes.

Hurricane Milton was the third storm this year to hit Florida after Debby and Helene. While Milton was strong, dry air surging into the southern part of the storm just prior to landfall, helped to alleviate some of the impacts from the storm.