Weather pattern shift continues across southern Quebec

Much needed rainfall this week, along with cooler temperatures has made the outdoors it feel and look more like late October. The fall colours are popping in the Montreal region, with most other areas past peak. Gusty winds this week have removed many leaves form the trees, but some, like this maple on Ile Perrot, remain spectacular. (Valley Weather Photo)

More rain fell in Montreal on Monday evening than in the entire month of September and in October to date. Over 35mm fell in Montreal, alleviating the fire risk and bringing much needed moisture to area waterways.

The pattern change that accompanied the rain will continue, with near or slightly cooler than normal temperatures persisting into next week. An upper level low spinning over the Great Lakes, will slowly drift into southern Quebec and eventually northeast of our region by the weekend. Expect the weather to be like, well, October for the next few days. Stubborn clouds, along with gusty west winds, will keep temperatures around 10C (50F) into Saturday. A few isolated showers are possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

Locations closer to the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley have the higher risk of seeing those showers. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits. Cold temperatures are expected in the Eastern Townships and higher elevations of upstate New York and Vermont, where a few snowflakes are possible on Friday evening. At this time, there is no snow in the forecast for Montreal.

High pressure will try to clear the skies out in Montreal by Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but clouds and precipitation are expected to return early next week. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal through the forecast period.

National Hurricane Center forecast track of Tropical storm Melissa. The storm is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane this weekend, threatening Jamaica. (NOAA/NHC)

Tropical Storm Melissa

While this year's hurricane season has been active, the majority of the storms have remained out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Melissa may become a serious problem as early as this weekend. The tropical storm is located early Thursday morning 345 kilometres southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm is meandering around the Caribbean Sea, drifting northwest at 7km/h. Wind shear is keeping the storm rather disorganized and in check, but that is expected to change.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect Melissa to become a major hurricane this weekend, with potential catastrophic impacts for Jamaica, Haiti and parts of Cuba. Steering currents are very weak at this time, as a result the forecast is subject to change. At this time, dangerous flooding and mudslides are possible over Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts may exceed 250mm through Friday.

Winds, waves and storm surge are forecast to increase through Saturday along the southern coasts of all three countries as well as Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch in in effect for the region.

October weather set to return to Montreal this week

Summer in October. Hazy sunshine along the banks of the St. Lawrence River on Sunday afternoon, as temperatures soared into the 20s. Low water levels have created a new beach on Ile Perrot. Thankfully rain is forecast this week. (Valley Weather Photo)

Much needed rainfall and cooler weather on the way for southern Quebec this week.

The summery, fall weather was nice while it lasted, but the end is just a few hours away. Rain is on our doorstep Monday morning as low pressure moves north of Montreal trailing a slow moving, potent cold front behind it. That will establish a pattern change, at least for the week ahead and perhaps beyond.

Our weather has been unseasonably warm and dry, the warmest coming on Sunday, when the mercury hit 22.3C (73F) at Trudeau Airport. That was well-above the normal high for mid-October of 11C (52F), and just shy of the record high for the date of 24.7C (76F) set in 2007 Saint Anicet and Cornwall, Ontario were the warmest locations in the country Sunday, approaching a remarkable 28C (83F). 

Strong southerly winds gusted as high as 70km/h across the region. This combined with low relative humidity values and our ongoing drought, resulted in several wildfires igniting. One such fire burned 4.5 hectares near Chemin Lac St-Louis in the South Shore community of Lery. I watched from Pointe-du-Moulin on Ile Perrot as a provincial water bomber doused the fire, bringing it quickly under control, with the help of firefighters on the ground.

A Canadair CL-415 Super Scooper prepares to drop water on a wildfire burning near Lery on the South Shore Sunday afternoon. Tinder dry conditions, warm temperatures and strong winds helped spread the fire over at least 4.5 hectares. Other fires were reported in eastern Ontario and upstate New York. (CTV NEWS/Corey Wilson)

The tinder dry conditions also sparked other fires around eastern Ontario, upstate New York and southwestern Quebec. Burn bans have been in place for several weeks now, but despite this, most of the fires so far this year have been caused by campfires or open burning of debris and vegetation.

I was amazed by how low the water level is on the Saint Lawrence River, despite the release of water this weekend from the Moses-Saunders Dam near Cornwall on Saturday. We now have a beach on Ile Perrot, beautiful fpr a Sunday afternoon walk, but water levels are too low.

RAIN... FINALLY!

The good news is we have a much cooler and moist airmass on the way for this week. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast fro Monday, with as much as 25mm expected. The showery weather will persist all week, as an upper level low settles over the region. We may have 25-50mm of rain by Friday, easily surpassing the total so far this moth, that is stuck at 22.4mm for Montreal. 

This will be real October weather for a change, as temperatures settle back down into the low teens for highs and around 4C (39F) for lows by midweek. The cooler, damp weather will persist into next weekend, with even the risk of a few snowflakes over the higher elevations north and southeast of the city by Thursday into Friday.

Warmer weekend - much needed moisture on the way for Montreal

My annual photo showing the date of the first frost of the season on Ile Perrot. Most locations across southern Quebec have now reported frost, with the growing season winding down. (Valley Weather)

Strong high pressure has led to a frosty morning Friday, in Montreal, with temperatures dropping close to the freezing point at many locations. Most locations off island have already had the first frost of the season, so while a frost advisory will likely be posted Friday night as well, the growing season is coming to an end.

Precipitation remains at a premium in southern Quebec this month as it has most of the summer an early fall. To date, only 22.4mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport, falling on two days this month, Drought conditions remain severe to extreme across a wide area from central and southern Ontario across the St. Lawrence Valley and into northern New England.

While the fall weather this year has been spectacular, we desperately need rain. Only 22mm has fallen at Trudeau Airport in October, with large parts of the region reporting severe to extreme drought conditions. The wildfire risk remains very high to extreme with outdoor burning prohibited or strongly discouraged for most parts of southwestern Quebec. (Valley Weather)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the upcoming weekend, but there is some good news on the horizon as far as rainfall is concerned. Temperatures will warm over the weekend, from cool daytime highs of 13C (55F) Friday, to near-summer warmth Sunday at 22C (72F). Gusty southwest winds are expected Sunday, in advance of a cold front that will usher in a pattern change next week.

Two areas of low pressure will pass north of Montreal next week, dragging several frontal boundaries across southern Quebec. Clouds and showers wil prevail for a good portion of the week, with estimates of 25-50mm (1-2 inches) of rain for the week. Temperatures will trend cooler as well, with highs dropping into the lower teens.

An aerial view of severe flooding in the village of Kotzebue, Alaska after the passage of what was left of Typhoon Halong. Thousands are homeless and damage is significant in many villages across the western part of the state. (Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities Photo)

Active Weather Week

It has been a very active weather week across many parts of NorthAmerica, despite our quiet weather here in Montreal. A strong Nor'Easter last weekend remained largely south of Montreal, producing widespread coastal flooding from North Carolina to Long Island. Homes were inundated and roads washed away. Thousands were left without power from New Jersey to North Carolina.

Meanwhile in western Canada, a strong fall storm produced the first significant snowfall of the season across parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan on Thanksgiving Day. Travel was extremely difficult, especially in Alberta. Some locations reported over 10cm of fresh snow, along with wind gusts over 80km/h.

In Alaska, the remains of Typhoon Halong produced strong winds, heavy rain and a devastating storm surge resulting in catastrophic flooding. Several homes were washed away, leading to the evacuation of over 1500 residents. Several villages in the western part of the state were flooded with homes washing out to sea. One death has been reported so far.

Frost advisory for southern Quebec - drought lingers

FALL RETURNS: The record heat in Montreal Sunday and Monday, came to a quick end on Tuesday as a strong cold front crossed the Montreal region. Temperatures dropped to more seasonable values along with the first rain for October, 19mm in Montreal. Temperatures dropped form the record high of 29C (85F) Monday, to 22C (72F) Tuesday, and 17C (63F) Wednesday. Frost is likely Thursday night. (Valley Weather Photo)

Frost Advisory for Montreal

What may have been our last really warm weather of the season came to an abrupt end Tuesday along a strong cold front. That front brought the first rain for the month of October to Montreal, with a general 15-20mm falling across southern Quebec. For the short-term, the ban on open fires has been lifted for the Montreal region, but it remains in effect for other parts of western Quebec. The wildfire risk remains extreme for many, with much more rainfall needed to alleviate the drought conditions and tinder dry forests. If at all possible, just avoid any campfires, fire pits or fireworks all together.

There is no rain in the forecast through at least Sunday. The cooler temperatures that have settled into our region will allow for some frost to develop by Friday morning. A frost advisory is in effect. While Thursday morning was chilly, with lows close to the freezing point, gusty northwest winds kept the risk for frost minimal in the city.

Thursday will be a sunny, cool day, with highs only reaching the low teens. Overnight into Friday, clear skies and calm winds will allow for lows close to 0C (32F) and perhaps our first real frost for most of the region around metro Montreal.

High pressure will be in control of our weather through Sunday, with fair weather and moderating temperatures, into the upper teens for highs and upper single digits for lows. Some shoers may develop Thanksgiving Monday on the far northern edge of a strong Nor'easter coastal storm. That storm is expected to produce very heavy rainfall, strong winds up to 100km/h and pounding surf along the middle Atlantic and northeast coastlines. Montreal may see some clouds and showers along the extreme northern edge of the storm.

A home falls into the Atlantic Ocean in Buxton, North Carolina. The Outer Banks have been pounded by serval major storms this year, with another forecast this weekend. (National Park Service Photo)

First Nor'easter of the fall season

For those of you who read my blog and a regular basis, you will know that I vacation often on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, specifically Hatteras Island. That region has been taking a beating this summer, with several major hurricanes passing well offshore but delivering towering waves and surf. The result has been significant beach erosion, with infrastructure, roads and homes falling victim to the Atlantic Ocean. Just last week, at least 9 homes fell into the surf in Buxton and Rodanthe. 

The news of another significant coastal storm on the heels of hurricanes Humberto and Imelda is not welcome for the residents and tourists of the region. According to the National Park Service that manages the beaches, the value of the homes alone lost last week alone was placed at more than $5 million dollars, with  a very costly cleanup underway.

Warmest October day on record for Montreal

It certainly looked like Autumn on Sunday, but it did not feel like it at all. Temperatures soared into the upper 20s for many locations, with several all-time October record highs falling, including in Montreal and Burlington, Vermont. Dozens of new records were established for the date. Monday will be another warm and dry day, with extreme wildfire conditions forecast. Avoid all outdoor burning, including campfires. (Valley Weather Photo)

The warm and dry weather continues across southern Quebec and Ontario Monday after several all-time October records were established on Sunday. Montreal's Trudeau Airport reached 29.9C (85F), a new record for the date and month, surpassing the daily high of 28.5C (83F) set in 2023, and the all-time monthly high of 29.3C (84F) set on October 1st, 2023. The normal high for October 5, is 14C (56F).

Strong high pressure has been in control of the weather across southern Quebec since late September, with no rainfall at all so far in October. This follows a near-record dry month for September, with only 33mm falling in Montreal. The danger for wildfires remains extreme across southern Quebec, with the ban for outdoor fires now extending to all parts of the region including metro Montreal according to SOPFEU.

The fire risk will only increase Monday, with another record warm day forecast, with a high of 28C (83F) for Montreal. The previous record for the date is 26C (79F) set in 2005. In addition to the hot weather, we can expect gusty southwest winds to increase to 20 to 40km/h, along with very low relative humidity levels in the afternoon. Any potential wildfires would spread quickly in these conditions. It is critical that you avoid all outdoor burning today and Tuesday, including campfires.

Despite the vibrant foliage and Halloween decorations, Sunday felt more like August in Montreal and not October, with blazing sunshine and record high temperatures observed.

The dry weather this fall has increased the amount of fires burning in Quebec, with 28 reported as of Monday morning. This includes one that started around 4:30AM Monday morning in Domaine des Pins near Sainte-Justine-de-Newton in the Monteregie, close to the Ontario border. Five departments are currently fighting that blaze, but it remains out of control. 

There is some good news on the horizon, with a strong cold front arriving Tuesday afternoon, along with at least 10 to 15mm of much needed rainfall. The showers will taper off overnight into Wednesday morning, followed by gusty northwest winds and a sharp drop in temperatures. Highs will drop from the upper 20s Tuesday to the lower teens for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will approach the freezing point for many locations by Thursday morning, with the risk of frost.

The balance of the week will feature seasonable highs near 16C (61F), with sunny skies and dry conditions returning.

Frost and fire risk - outdoor burning prohibited across southern Quebec

Extremely dry weather has resulted in extreme wildfire conditions across southern Quebec. As a result SOPFEU has placed an outdoor burn ban in effect for parts of our region. This includes campfires and backyard burning. Rain fell in Montreal on only 7 days in September totalling 33mm, only 36 percent of the normal value. (Valley Weather) 

Frost Advisory in effect for southern Quebec for Thursday morning.

After only 33mm of rain in September and no precipitation in the forecast through next week, an outdoor burn ban has been put in place for large parts of southern and western Quebec, including and the MRC of Vaudreuil/Soulanges. According to SOPFEU, a wide area of southwestern Quebec in under extreme wildfire conditions. Even if you are not under the burn ban, you should refrain from any outdoor fires, this includes metro Montreal.

This means no campfires, or burning of any vegetation, and no fireworks. SOPFEU recommends that you check with your local municipality for specifics on the ban, but emphasize that no outdoor burning should take place. Drought conditions continue to intensify across the entire region, extending into eastern Ontario and northern New England. Burning restrictions are in place for many of those locations as well.

Most of southern and western Quebec is under extreme fire conditions (red) according to SOPFEU. This includes most of metro Montreal. Outdoor fires, including campfires are prohibited in most regions and not advised in metro Montreal. 

Strong high pressure will result in an extended period of low relative humidity, gusty north winds and warm temperatures. The result is very tinder dry vegetation, with the risk of any fire that may occur spreading quickly. No relief is in sight for the dry weather, we need rain desperately.

As the high pressure crests over our region Wednesday night, widespread frost is possible, with low temperatures dropping close to the freezing point for many. The low in metro Montreal will be around 3C (38F). Breezy and cool conditions will be in place Thursday as well, followed by a significant warning trend into the weekend. Daytime highs will approach near record values in Montreal, with highs near 27C (81F) by Sunday and Monday. The record Sunday for Montreal is 28.5C (84F) set in 2023. The normal high for early October is closer to 16C (61F).

The next chance for any precipitation will not come before next Wednesday at the earliest, with a cold front moving into southern Quebec.

Spectacular fall weather for Montreal - no rain in sight

A rocky beach along the shoreline of Lac St. Louis in Lachine. Water levels across the region remain at near-record low levels. The area will be getting an increase in water on October 18, with a planned increase in flow from the Moses-Saunders Power Dam in Cornwall, Ontario. The dam is operated by International Joint Commission and the Saint Lawrence Seaway. The flow will be increased over a 36 hour period, raising Lac St. Louis by as much as 15cm (6 inches).  (Valley Weather Photo)

September weather does not get any better than this in southern Quebec. However is does come at a cost, as drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. Starting with the upcoming forecast, we can expect nothing but sunshine through next Sunday. A dry cold front on Tuesday will result in gusty winds, up to 40km/h and a drop in temperatures, but no precipitation. 

The weekend was warm and dry in Montreal, with a well-above normal high of 24.9C (77F) on Sunday. Monday will be warm as well, reaching the middle 20s for highs. Overnight lows will be seasonably cool, around 10C (50F). The balance of the week will be slightly cooler, around 19C (66F) for highs and morning lows in the single digits. There will be a risk of frost on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

By late week, strong high pressure will shift to our southeast, deflecting any storms away from out region. Temperatures will be on the rise again, with near-record warmth expected for the first weekend in October. There is no rain in sight. Montreal remains at 33mm for September, well below normal, and just above the record of 27mm set in 1961.

Saint Lawrence River International Joint Commission to raise water levels for Lac St Louis

The International Joint Commission will be increasing the flow from the Moses-Saunders Power Dam near Cornwall, Ontario on October 18. This is in response to the near-record low water levels on Lac St. Louis in the Montréal region. The last time this was required was back in the fall of 2012. Water levels are dangerously low in our region, with some areas to low for watercraft navigation. 

Water levels currently sit at around 67.88 feet on Lac St. Louis. The increase in flow on October 18, will bring the level of the lake up to approximately 68.24 feet. The increase in flow will only be for a 36 hour-period to help facilitate the seasonal removal of watercraft in our region. Many parts of southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario remain in moderate to severe drought conditions.