After the first frost and snow, a significant warming trend forecast for Quebec & Ontario

Many regions outside of Montreal have had their first frost, freezing temperatures and even snow already this season. Tonight should be the first frost in metro Montreal. This week over 25cm of snow fell across many of the highest elevations of the Eastern Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Meanwhile here in Montreal it was cold, blustery 5 to 6mm of light rain. The month remains dry, with only 15.2mm falling a Trudeau Airport so far. (Photo Sugarbush Resort)

Frost Advisory in effect for southern Quebec

The growing season should come to end across our region Thursday and Friday mornings, as strong high pressure noses into the region. Light winds and clearing skies will allow temperature to fall rapidly after sunset. As a result, lows will drop to the freezing point in the city and below outside the metropolitan area.

While frost and even some snow have occurred across many parts of Quebec and New England this past week, we have yet to see any frost here in Montreal so far. With overnight lows in the 0C to -3C (27F to 32F) range by Thursday morning, that should change tonight for most of us.

The weather definitely felt like fall this week in Montreal. Temperatures were well-below normal through Wednesday, along with clouds and gusty winds. We have a couple of frosty mornings ahead, before strong high pressure ushers in much warmer air across southern Quebec through the upcoming weekend and beyond. (Valley Weather Photo)

Slow moving low pressure has been responsible for our chilly weather of late, with gusty northwest winds, showers and daytime highs under 10C (50F). The aforementioned high pressure that is building into our region will usher in a significant pattern change. Expect sunny days and clear nights through at least next Tuesday. Temperatures will start off chilly but warm to the middle and upper teens by the weekend, and close to 21C (70F) by early next week here in Montreal. The normal high/low for mid-October should be 12C (54F) and 3C (38F).

The showers that we have been experiencing in valley locations this past week, have been falling as now in many locations across the higher elevations of the Beauce, Eastern Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks. Elevations above 4000 feet, including Jay Peak, Mount Mansfield and Whiteface Mountain, which have received 25-40cm of fresh snow this week.

October-like weather just in time for Thanksgiving

A starry chilly morning on Monday, October 7, the coldest so far this fall, with morning lows near 2.8C (37F) here on Ile Perrot along with scattered frost. Many locations across Canada witnessed the northern lights this past week, but they were not visible at my home due to light pollution. (Valley Weather Photo)

The weather will finally start behaving like October here in Montreal. After an extremely warm September and early October, cooler weather arrived this week, just in time for the Thanksgiving long weekend. Temperatures have tumbled into the single digits for overnight lows, and have been struggling to reach 10C (50F) this week, along with clouds, gusty winds at times and a few sprinkles. The culprit has been a stubborn upper low moving slowly across southern Quebec from the Great Lakes.

Personally, I find it very cold. I think the warm September is to blame. I only began this week to wear jackets and long-sleeved shirts, prior to that it was all shorts. In recent years we have all become accustomed to the later arrival of fall and eventually winter weather. This has pushed our averages back by almost a month, so when the cooler weather does finally arrive, it can be quite a shock to the system. Even the foliage has been very slow to respond this autumn in Montreal, with plenty of green leaves still around. That may change in the next week or so.

We have still not received any general frost in the Montreal region, although we came close on Monday morning, when the low was 3C (38F). The weather remains rather dry as compared to our summer, with only 6.4mm of rainfall for the month of October at Trudeau Airport to date.

We can expect another chilly, cloudy day Thursday, with a high around 10C (50F). Friday will be the best day of the week and possibly for the next week and beyond, with sunny skies and an unseasonably warm high of 18C (65F). The normal high should be around 13C (55F). Enjoy the weather as we have a pattern change starting with the arrival of a cold front late in the day.

Expect a partly cloudy, chilly weekend, with a few showers around and daytime highs of 10 to 13C (50 to 55F) and overnight lows around 6C (43F). Another stronger cold front Sunday evening will usher in the coldest air this fall, along with some light rain. Monday will be cloudy, breezy and cold, with a daytime high of only 6C (43F) and and overnight low of 3C (38F). The colder air will remain with us next week.

Hurricane Milton makes landfall at Siesta Key, Florida

Hurricane Milton generated over three dozen tornadoes across the state of Florida with widespread damage observed including above at Palm Beach Gardens. (WeatherMatrix)

Powerful hurricane Milton moved inland Wednesday evening around 8:30PM near Siesta Key, Florida, just west of Sarasota. The storm had winds of 195km/h (120mph) at landfall. There were reports of significant damage in many locations, as winds gusted to 172km/h (107mph) at Venice Beach.

Thursday morning, Milton has moved back over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, located 120KM east-northeast of Cape Canaveral. Milton will now transition into a strong extratropical storm passing south of Bermuda over the next day or so.

Over 300mm of rain fell in just a few hours north of the track of hurricane Milton, producing widespread flash flooding. (St John's County Sherriff)

Back in Florida, power is out to over three million homes and businesses. Widespread damage has occurred, including a crane collapsing on the Tampa Bay Times Newspaper building in St. Pete, and the destruction of the roof at Tropicana Place, home of the MLB Rays in Tampa.

The big story with Milton will likely be the large tornado outbreak. Tornadoes are very common with landfalling hurricane, but they tend to be weaker and short-lived compared to their midwestern cousins. Such was not the case with Milton on Wednesday. Over 125 tornado warnings were issued across the state, with 38 confirmed tornadoes. Many of them were large, long-lasting wedge tornadoes, producing significant damage, injuries and loss of life. In St Lucie County, 4 deaths were reported.

Hydro One from Ontario has sent additional crews south to help with power restoration in Florida. Over 100 employees were already on the ground in Georgia helping to restore power lost during Hurricane Helene. (Hydro One)

In St Petersburg, over 400mm of rain fell in just a few hours producing flash flooding.

First responders are spreading out across the state Thursday morning to assess damage and search for those who may be injured or trapped in their homes.

Hurricane Milton was the third storm this year to hit Florida after Debby and Helene. While Milton was strong, dry air surging into the southern part of the storm just prior to landfall, helped to alleviate some of the impacts from the storm.

Hurricane Milton landfall expected Wednesday evening

Contractors have been busy since last Friday, rushing to clear away the tons of debris left behind by Hurricane Helene. The same area is now being evacuated for Hurricane Milton. The leftover debris could become lethal in strong winds and pounding surf. (JAX Today)

Powerful category 5 hurricane Milton continues to move towards the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning, located 405KM southwest of Tampa. Landfall is forecast by midnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning very close to Sarasota, Florida.

Milton currently has winds of 250km/h (155 MPH), a catastrophic category 5 storm, capable of a storm surge of 10-15 feet near and to the right of where the center crosses the coast. While some dry air is located to the north of the storm, possibly weakening Milton just prior to landfall, this will likely have minimal effect on the pounding surf and surge of water into the coast. Milton is the worst storm in over 100 years to threaten this region. 

Isolated tornadoes are also likely as Milton makes landfall and moves across the state, close to Orlando and eventually Daytona Beach along the east coast.

NOAA visible satellite image of Hurricane Milton early Wednesday morning, located 405 km southwest of Tampa Bay, moving northeast at 26km/h, with 250km/h (155MPH) winds. (NOAA)

Helene in late September created a massive storm surge in many of the same locations in west-central Florida, and mounds of debris remain. The debris will become lethal in strong winds and rapidly rising surf.

Evacuations have been rushed to completion, and the state has mobilized the National Guard. Resources have been pouring in from other states, including FEMA and over 43,000 linemen and women prepared to restore power to millions in the track.

Milton will sweep across the state on Thursday, spreading 200-400mm of rain towards the east coast of Florida, as well as tornadoes and 100mph plus winds. Widespread weather warnings are in effect for the entire state except the western panhandle, as well as the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines and the Bahamas.

This is a developing story and updates will be provided today at this link.

Extremely dangerous hurricane Milton heading for west central Florida

Hurricane Milton early Tuesday morning moving northeast away from Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Milton will now take aim at west-central Florida, expected to make landfall late Wednesday near Tampa bay as a strong category three hurricane, with winds of up to 200km/h (125 mph). (NOAA)

Hurricane Milton became a powerhouse on Monday, deepening rapidly into a category 5 storm before weakening slightly late last evening. The storm was in a perfect environment to strengthen and did so at a record pace, dropping 70mb in less than 24 hours down to 897mb. Only hurricane Wilma in 2005 at 882mb was a stronger Gulf storm.

Milton went through what is know as an eyewall replacement last evening, common in very strong hurricanes. The pressure rose to 929mb as of 8am Tuesday, and the winds have backed off to 230km/h (145mph) after being as high as 280km/h (185mph) earlier in the day Monday.

Make no mistake, Milton is still a beast, as as the storm weakens slightly, the wind field is expanding as the storm moves northeast into the central Gulf of Mexico. Milton will be one of the strongest hurricanes on record to hit the west coast of Florida. Widespread hurricane warnings are in effect for the state, with mandatory evacuations well underway. 

Roads were jammed in and around Tampa Bay as residents fled north away from the direct impacts of Milton. Early Tuesday morning, Milton was located 880km southwest of Tampa Bay, moving east, northeast at 19km/h. The hurricane is expected to approach the Florida coast late Wednesday or in the wee hours Thursday morning. At this time, forecasters expect Milton to be a strong Category 3 storm when landfall occurs, very close to Tampa.

Hurricane Milton to impact Florida Gulf Coast

NOAA Satellite image of  a strengthening Hurricane Milton located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, just west of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday morning. Milton is forecast to become a powerful category 4 hurricane as the storm heads for Florida's west coast. (NOAA/NWS)

Hurricane Milton developed over the weekend in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane watches have been issued for the west coast of Florida, for some of the same regions hit by deadly Helene just over a week ago. Many of theses regions are still cleaning up debris and restoring power and water. Close to 250,000 residents remain without power from Helene across four southeastern states.

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in many coastal counties along Florida's west coast. These are some of the same areas pounded by storm surge flooding from Hurricane Helene on September 26. (NHC)

Early Monday morning, Hurricane Milton was located 1195km west, southwest of Tampa, moving east, southeast at 13km/h. Winds have increased to 205km/h, (125mph) with rapid intensification expected to continue today. Milton is currently a category 3 hurricane.  Forecasters expect Milton to turn towards the northeast at an increased forward speed, and approach the Florida Gulf Coast by Wednesday as a major category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Power remains out to over 250,000 residents across four southeastern US states. Over 100 Hydro-One employees from Ontario headed south late last week to assist Georgia Power in restoring power to nearly 125,000 clients in their state. Helene claimed over 225 lives and produced widespread damage in the billions across six states. (Hydro-One Photo)

Mandatory evacuations have already been ordered for many coastal counties. As we saw with Hurricane Helene, storm surge flooding can be very intense along the Gulf Coast. Two things you should know about Milton, the waters of the Gulf are very warm this year adding potent fuel to the storm and allowing it to intensify rapidly over the next day or so. The angle of approach to the west coast of Florida is very unusual, and this will only add to the level of the storm surge, espcially for the barrier islands and Tampa Bay. Milton is expected to cross the entire state of Florida from west to east, with the potential for significant damage and numerous impacts.

Hurricane Milton should cross the Florida peninsula on Thursday and move into the open waters of the Atlantic. At present, the storm is forecast to remain well south of New England, with zero impacts for our region.

After a warm September - more seasonable weather is on the way for Montréal

A spectacular Montreal sky late Tuesday, October 1st. While the month may have changed, the weather remained the same, warm and dry. September was a record warm month for the region, with rain falling on only three days. (Valley Weather Photo)

What a spectacular September the city of Montreal experienced weather wise. You can not ask for better, ending with a sunny, warm weekend. Even October 1st was well-above normal, with the high temperature peaking at 23.4C (74F), well-above the normal high of 15C (59F). 

And so it goes in our new reality, where September is no longer fall, but just an extension of summer. In fact, September 2024 was the warmest on record for Montreal, with 26 of the 30 days registering highs of 20C or warmer. This ties the record from 1872 and surpasses the 25 days recorded recently in 2021. The average for the month was 18.4C, the normal is 16C.

After the record-breaking rainfall of August, Montreal managed only 53mm of precipitation in September, falling on just three days. Speaking of August, the Insurance Bureau of Canada now estimates that the flood damage caused by Hurricane Debby will exceed $2.5 billion dollars in insurable losses across Quebec. So far in 2024, insurable losses due to weather related events will reach at least $7 billion dollars in Canada, the most ever recorded in one year. 

Looking ahead, we are finally seeing a pattern change evolving that will introduce colder air across the country. After a rather stagnant patter in eastern Canada, we will see a series of cold fronts beginning Wednesday and continuing into next week. Expect temperatures to fall back closer to normal values here in Montreal, along with precipitation. There is a chance for some gusty winds early next week as well, as the strongest of the cold fronts moves through on Monday. Behind that front, several areas in southern Ontario and Quebec may see frost for the first time this season.

After highs in the 20s, the mercury will fall into the middle and even lower teens next week. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits. Perhaps "true" fall is here, time will tell.

The summer of the flood continues across North America. Damage from natural disasters will runs into the billions across North America, including $7 billion in Canada. The flooding above was from Hurricane Helene last week after the storm dumped feet of rain in and around Asheville, North Carolina. (TWC)

One final note, the death toll from Hurricane Helene has now reached 160, with nearly 600 residents still missing across the flood ravaged southern Appalachians. The flood damage looks almost post-apocalyptic, with estimates running into the hundreds of billions of dollars in losses. Many communities remain isolated, after torrential rain swept through the region last Friday. Infrastructure and communications have been destroyed, with roads and bridges swept away. The hardest hit portions of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee bore the brunt of the flash flooding, while coastal communities in Florida suffered severe damage from storm surge.

Deadly Helene downgraded to tropical storm

Significant storm surge from Hurricane Helene has caused severe damage all along the Florida Gulf Coast, including Cedar Key, shown above. This is the same region that was hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023. (The Weather Channel)

Hurricane Helene became a monster on Friday, deepening rapidly to a category 4 hurricane with 250km/h winds and racing into the Big Bend region along Florida's Gulf Coast. The storm moved faster than any I can remember in this region, coming inland at over 25MPH (40KM/H). Helene has weakened to a tropical storm Friday morning over northern Georgia.

Helene was the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Big Bend region. The previous record had been established by the Cedar Keys Hurricane of 1896, that had winds of 200KM/H (125 MPH).

Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, which is quickly becoming the hurricane capital after direct hits from Debby and Idalia over the last year. Helene delivered a massive storm surge along Florida's west coast from Fort Myers north towards Alligator Point. Cedar Key was inundated once again with several feet of Gulf water. Numerous properties have been destroyed or flooded, some with water up to their rooftops.

The eye of powerful category 4 Hurricane Helene moving onshore at 11pm Thursday evening just south of Perry in Florida's Big Bend region. (NWS)

Helene's winds have taken down thousands upon thousands of trees, with power out across the US southeast to more than 3.5 million residents and businesses. The storm is also producing torrential rains, with flood emergencies across several states, including water-logged North Carolina. The Atlanta metro area has received over 150mm of rain in the last few hours, with major flooding occurring as well as numerous swift water rescues.

Early Friday morning, Helene was downgraded to a tropical storm, located 130km east, northeast of Atlanta, Georgia. Helene was still racing towards the north at 48km/h, the only saving grace with this storm has been her rapid forward speed.

As day breaks over the region, the damage is widespread and extensive. There have been at least 5 fatalities confirmed so far. I have great concern for parts of Appalachia, where Helene will stall, and rain out over the weekend. Significant fresh water life-threatening flooding is expected.

Under normal circumstance, Helene would take aim at our region. This time we are being protected by strong high pressure centred over Quebec, that will keep the storm well south of us. Good news for Ontario, Quebec and New England, but bad news for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.