First snow of the season in Montreal possible late week

Some parts of Quebec have already had the first snow of the season. We may see our first snowflakes here in Montreal by late this week. (Sûreté du Québec)

A complicated weather scenario is developing this week across southern Ontario and Quebec, that may lead to the first snowflakes of the season falling in Montreal. It is a good bet at this point that higher elevations in Quebec and New England will see some snow late Thursday and again over the upcoming weekend. As to whether or not the snow makes it down to the valley floors is still in question.

Before then, we have a typical November week in Montreal, lots of clouds, gusty wind at times, occasional showers and chilly temperatures. Highs will be vey close to normal during the day between 5C and 10C (40F to 50F), with overnight lows either side of the freezing point, cooler by late week.

By Thursday, low pressure over the Great Lakes will move south of our region and strengthen along the Atlantic Coast. More precipitation, in the form of rain, is forecast to develop Thursday afternoon. As colder air is drawn into our region on the backside of the low, rain may change to wet snow Thursday night in Montreal. 

The damp conditions will prevail into Friday, with a mix of snow and rain showers, windy with chilly high temperatures in the low single digits. A slushy few centimetres of snow is possible for higher elevations, with perhaps a coating on grassy surfaces in Montreal.

This forecast is subject to change, complicated to say the least, with many moving parts. Expect highly changeable driving conditions if you have any travel plans across our region late this week into the weekend.

This will not be a big storm by any stretch, but we all know how the first snow of the season can create significant problems on the roads. Time to prepare now, install those winter tires.

The good news is that early next week, high pressure returns, with clearing skies and milder temperatures.

Much cooler weather on the way for southern Quebec

It has been a soggy, warm and humid start to November in Montreal. The record-breaking warmth will be replaced by much cooler, breezy weather this weekend persisting into next week. Some elevated locations across southern Quebec, upstate New York and Vermont may even have some snow by next weekend.

Our record temperatures run is coming to an end as much cooler and showery weather is expected for the upcoming weekend. It was quite a warm week, with temperature records broken on three consecutive cycles. We established a record high on Wednesday, when the temperature reached 23.2C (74F) in Montréal, and even warmer at some off-island locations to the southwest. Both overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday were also new records for the warmest overnight minimum temperature.

The warm air persisted Thursday, thought not record-breaking, reaching 20.6C (70F) at Trudeau Airport. The average high and low for early November should 7C/0C in Montreal. Much colder is expected to make a return as early as this weekend, along with a showery pattern through next week, and perhaps even a few snowflakes in some locations.

Friday will be another very warm day across southwestern Quebec, with highs reaching well into the upper teens. Clouds will be on the increase Friday night along with a wind shift from southwest to northeast. Cooler air will flow down the St. Lawrence Valley, capping our temperatures on Saturday back into the single digits at 9C (48F). 

Developing low pressure along the east coast will keep conditions breezy, showery and chilly Sunday, with highs remaining below 10C (50F). Winds will gust out of the northeast 20-40km/h.

The unsettled, cool weather will persist into next week, with temperatures trending even cooler along with breezy conditions. By Thursday, we could see highs under 5C (41F), with even a few flurries in the air.

Despite the mild start to November, it has been wet, with precipitation recorded each day so far, with 19.6mm to date at Trudeau Airport. Looking ahead, Friday may be the only dry day over the next week or so, so enjoy.

Record warmth forecast for southern Quebec

A misty, mild November morning across southern Quebec, with record warm overnight lows translating into a very warm daytime high of 22C (72F).

Record-breaking November warmth is underway across southern Quebec, with the temperature already at 19C (66F) in Montreal early Wednesday morning, on the way into the middle 20s. The morning low was only 12C (54F), surpassing the previous maximum morning low of 11C (52F) set back in 1977. The normal morning low for November 4th should be 0C (32F), with an average daytime high of only 8C (48F).

All of eastern Canada will feature well-above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Montreal is forecasting a high Wednesday of 22C (72F), the previous record high to beat is 20.6C (69F), set in 2022. We will likely establish another record tonight, with a very warm overnight low of 14C (56F) expected. The previous warmest low for the date was 10C (50F) set in 1975. Above normal temperatures are forecast through the next few days as our super El Nino fall weather persists.

High pressure will result in sunshine for Wednesday after some morning clouds and fog burn away. Very warm south and southwest winds will help temperatures soar quickly to record levels. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night, with showers forecast Thursday as low pressure skirts along the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will remain mild, with Thursday's high forecast at 18C (65F). Friday will feature clearing skies, before another low pressure moves along the east coast bringing Montreal clouds and showers for the weekend.

Temperatures will trend downward, but only back to normal levels by Sunday. The colder air that was expected for the middle of November seems to be delayed by a week or so, with forecasters now looking towards the end of the month for some arctic air to possibly be displaced and flow southward into the Great Lakes and east coast regions. Time will tell as we continue to navigate this unprecedented super El Nino fall and winter.

Dry weather persists in Montreal with mild temperatures...for now

Another beautiful October morning on Lac St-Louis last weekend, as the sun burns off the fog after a frosty start to the day. The photo submitted by one of our readers on the West Island, Alex Giuliano.

This October in Montreal has been simply spectacular, with seasonable to mild temperatures along with plenty of sunshine. Trudeau Airport has measured 75.6mm of rain for October, with most of that falling on only 2 days. The overnight period has been chilly as is to be expected in October, with frequent frost.

As we close out the month and celebrate Halloween, we can expect a windy warm Thursday. Temperatures on gusty southwest winds are warming quickly from morning lows near the freezing point. High temperatures in southern Quebec will be close to 20C (68F) Thursday afternoon, well above the normal high of  9C (48F).

Clouds will be on the increase as a weak cold front moves into our region late Thursday. Gusty southwest winds are forecast in the 20-40km/h range. A few sprinkles or showers are possible late Thursday into Friday, along with dropping temperatures. Friday will be a typical fall day, clouds, gusty winds and temperatures near 9C (48F).

Halloween and the end of Daylight Saving Time looks ideal, with sunshine all day an seasonable highs near 10C (50F). Trick or Treat time will be fair, with temperatures around 3C or 4C. Dress warm and be safe!

Sunrise over Ile Perrot on Thursday, October 29. Despite the frosty start, we can expect highs to reach well into the teens in Montreal on gusty southwest winds. (Stephen Balena)

Arctic Air?

As we look ahead to the start of November, our dry stretch will persist. The first week looks mild, with above normal temperatures in the middle teens. There are some indications of a significant pattern change mid-month as warm air rides into the Arctic region, dislodging or collapsing a piece of the polar vortex and sending it south into out latitudes. There are many unknowns here as to what influence the current super El Nino will have on that airmass. However, as we have seen already across western Canada, snow is not afraid to fall, despite the current El Nino conditions.

Time will tell, but at this point expect temperatures to fall closer to normal values by the middle part of the month. This pattern bears watching, as it may introduce a more active storm track, along with our first wintry precipitation of the season for Montreal. 

Spectacular fall weather for Montreal and southern Québec

Another spectacular sunrise over Ile Perrot on Thursday morning, in what has been a near-perfect stretch of fall weather across southern Quebec. (Valley Weather)

Montreal and southern Quebec continue to enjoy a long stretch of near-perfect fall weather. It does not get much better than this for October in Montreal. No precipitation has fallen since last Thursday, and with the exception of some clouds along a weak cold front Thursday, we have had nothing but sunshine.

Daytime temperatures have been seasonable, reaching into the low teens, while overnight lows have been cool, dropping very close to the freezing point for many locations. Here on Ile Perrot, we have had frost each of the last few mornings, with the growing season essentially coming to an end now.

The fall colours are also accelerating here in the city, with the current dry and cool weather. Most locations are at or past prime, with the leaves beginning to tumble to the ground quickly.

Looking ahead into the upcoming weekend and early next week, we have another strong ridge of high pressure that will arrive Friday, with nothing but sunshine forecast through next Tuesday. Temperatures will be cool, with daytime highs either side of 10C (50F) and morning lows at or slightly below freezing.

Get those snow tires on! Despite our nice weather of late, you know winter is on the way. This was the seen last Thursday north and east of Quebec City as the first snow fell in many parts of the province. (Surete du Quebec)

Behind Thursday afternoons cold front, some gusty north winds will prevail into Friday, adding to the chill in the air. Now is the time to prepare for winter. Mild or not, we will still have snow and ice to deal with as some parts of Quebec have already experienced.

For the second time in less than a month, portions of Highway 12 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were washed away. Sub-tropical storm Josephine will now bring hurricane force winds to the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada. (OBX Voice)

Sub-Tropical Storm Josephine

The aforementioned area of high pressure is helping to steer sub-tropical storm Josephine east into the open waters of the Atlantic. Josephine formed on Wednesday from what was a strong nor'easter located east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The barrier islands have been hammered all week by heavy surf and strong winds. The result has been significant damage to coastal highway 12 as well as some property damage. This is the second storm is less than one month to wash out portions of the highway that connects the fragile barrier islands along the North Carolina coast.

The forecast track of sub-tropical storm Josephine, expected to move south and east of Atlantic Canada through Sunday. (Canadian Hurricane Centre) 

Early Thursday morning Josephine was located 765 kilometres south, southwest of Halifax, with 100km/h winds. The storm was forecast to move northeast at 20km/h, while transitioning into a powerful extratropical low. Josephine will remain south and east of Atlantic Canada, however some clouds, gusty winds and heavy surf are likely for coastal Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, along with a few heavier rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  

Fall storm followed by the coldest air of the season

Dark, menacing clouds advance on the rising sun this past week on Ile Perrot. It certainly has felt like October all week in Montréal, with chilly temperatures, plenty of rain, drizzle and gusty winds. In terms of fall foliage, many locations in and around Montreal are nearing peak colour this weekend. (Valley Weather)

Strengthening low pressure is forecast to move across Lake Huron and down the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday, bringing with it some steady rainfall and gusty winds. A warm front will lift north towards the United States border on Friday morning, with a period of heavy rain likely ahead of it. Winds will veer to the northeast gusting at times up to 50km/h in Montreal during the morning hours. As the storm system shifts east of the city, winds will back to the southwest and eventually west, gusting up to 60km/h.

In terms of rainfall, we can expect another 15 to 25mm, to go along with our 20 to 40mm that fell on Tuesday. Temperatures will be quite chilly with this fall storm, with Montreal never really get into the warm sector. Expect highs on Friday near 9C (49F), dropping steadily behind the cold front to the freezing point by Saturday morning.

Some regions across central and northwest Quebec can even expect some snow on the backside of the low pressure, with as much as 10cm forecast for Chibougamau and the Saguenay region. Some flurries may even spread across the upper elevations of the Eastern Townships and Green Mountains into Saturday morning.

Saturday will be a breezy, cold day, with partial clearing and temperatures holding in the single digits. Saturday night may be the coldest of the fall so far, with lows expected below freezing for most locations, along with widespread frost, 0C to -2C for Montreal.

High pressure will build into the region on Sunday, with warming temperatures expected through Thursday, along with an extended period of dry weather. Highs will range from the lower teens Sunday to the middle and even upper teens by Thursday.

Stormy weather week for southern Quebec

The first frost of the season occurred on Saturday morning here on Ile Perrot. It was very light, with temperatures dropping to 1C (33F). A much colder airmass arrives by next weekend, with widespread frost, freezing temperatures and even some snow possible. (Valley Weather)

Heavy Rainfall Warning for Montreal for Tuesday.

October can be an interesting weather month, like April, with the seasons in full battle mode. Over the weekend, we had a major hurricane in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico, as well as one impacting the Gulf Coast. The first snow of the season fell across portions of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the remains of hurricane Rachel brought pounding surf and significant flash flood from California into Nevada.

In Montreal, Saturday was as nice a fall day as you can have, with widespread sunshine, light winds and seasonable highs in the teens. The good weather for Montreal has come to an end as clouds and showers are moving in along a weak cold front late Monday. 

That front will stall to our south over northern New England, and may even slowly move north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure will move along the front, tapping into moisture from the remains of Pacific hurricane Rachel. Steady rain and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, with as much as 40-60mm from Montreal south to the United States border and eastward into the Townships.

The showers may persist into Wednesday morning. The mild temperatures Monday, will be replaced by much cooler highs in the single digits Tuesday on gusty northeast winds up to 50km/h.

Some clearing is possible on Thursday before another, even stronger fall storm approaches southern Quebec by Friday. This storm will produce heavy rain and strong winds, followed by very cold temperatures Saturday and even some snowfall across parts of southern Quebec and New England. Expect a widespread frost and freezing temperatures, even in urban areas by Sunday morning.

Hurricane Isaias made landfall around 8pm Friday night near Destin, Florida. Very strong wind gusts, in excess of 100mph (160km/h), resulted in widespread damage and power outages along the Florida Gulf Coast. Many homes lost there roofs, like the one above in Pensacola Beach. (Weather Nation)

Hurricane Isaias

Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida on Friday evening, resulting is significant wind damage and flooding. The hardest hit areas were across the western Florida panhandle from Pensacola west towards the Alabama border. Winds gusted over 100mph, producing significant structural damage and knocking power out to nearly one million residents across parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. 

Four deaths were blamed on the once Category 3 storm, the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 2026. Isaias weakened rapidly after landfall, but still had enough punch to spread heavy rain, thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes north into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region.