More wintry weather on the way - thousands without power across southern Quebec

Trees and power lines strain under the weight of ice in Senneville on Thursday morning. (Valley Weather)

Many schools are closed for a second day across southern Quebec, the result of strong winds, icy conditions and widespread power outages. Temperatures nudged above the freezing mark overnight, allowing for some of the more than 13mm of freezing rain to melt in parts of the Montréal region.

The freezing rain was replaced by strong west winds, at times over 70km/h. That has played havoc with the power grid, already compromised by ice and tree branches coming in contact. As of 9:30am, Hydro-Québec is reporting 212,000 customers without power, 757 separate breaks in the system. That includes 28,000 on the Island of Montréal and 85,000 in the Montérégie. As with most large power interruptions, the utility is not offering restoration times, but does say they have 900 crews in the field, close to 2000 workers.

Hydro-Québec is responding to more than 700 breaks in the system Thursday morning, with 2000 workers. Power is out to more than 208,000 customers. (Hydro-Québec)

The storm itself is off to our east after dumping 15-25mm of freezing rain in most locations. Montreal had less than forecast, but it was enough to create problems on the road, at the airport and as mentioned with Hydro. A swath of heavier freezing rain impacted the Ottawa Valley and the lower Laurentians. Further north heavy snow and ice pellets fell. Thunder and lightning even occurred with the freezing rain during the midday hours in Montréal.

For Thursday, strong winds will continue to be a problem along with scattered snow showers as a cold front crosses the region. Our high temperature for the day has been reached, with the mercury lowering to -3C (27F) by the end of the day, and -8C (18F) overnight.

Thankfully less freezing rain occurred in Montreal than forecast, with amounts ranging from 12 to 25mm. This amount was still enough to cause problems with the power grid. The track of the storm wobbled a little to the northwest, allowing for less precipitation in Montreal and a later start to the precipitation. (Valley Weather)

MORE SNOW!

On Friday, clouds will increase ahead of our next storm system. More wintry weather is on tap as an Alberta Clipper skirts along the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday. Snow will develop overnight Friday and continue into Saturday, with 5-10cm expected for Montreal. Gusty winds will accompany the snow, creating areas of blowing snow. We get a brief break in the weather Sunday, before a much larger and complicated storm takes aim at us late Sunday into Monday. This storm will bring with it much warmer temperatures, with a messy mix of precipitation changing to rain across southern Québec. More on that in future posts.

Stay safe today as roads and sidewalks are slippery and ice is falling from trees and structures.

Windy, icy day ahead for southern Quebec

Freezing rain is forecast to last several hours today in Montreal, with 20-30mm expected. Amounts over 15mm usually start to impact power lines and trees. Expect travel delays as well.

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for Montréal, the St. Lawrence Valley and Ottawa Valley.

A wide area of freezing rain is expanding over eastern Ontario early Wednesday, expected to arrive in Montreal during the morning hours.

Most schools are closed and municipalities and Hydro-Quebec have mobilized ahead of an expected ice storm Wednesday. Low pressure will move from Illinois into upstate New York later today. Precipitation has been slow to arrive in Montreal, with scattered freezing drizzle being observed. The heavier precipitation arrives mid-morning, with 20-30mm of freezing rain expected by evening.

Temperatures have fallen below freezing in Montreal, currently -1C (30F), and will remain there all day. Warmer air will briefly arrive this evening, before cooling once again on Thursday.

Gusty northeast winds of 30-50km/h will back to the west and southwest tonight and increase 50-80 km/h, which will not help the power situation.

This is a dynamic system, with very warm air just to the south of us, and cold arctic high pressure to the northeast. Montreal is on the dividing line between the two airmasses. The trailing cold front has been responsible for widespread thunderstorms and tornadoes across parts of the central Untied States.

Some thunder may even sneak into parts of Ontario and extreme southern Quebec later today.

Significant freezing rain event for Montreal on Wednesday

This event looks quite similar to the April 2023 storm that knocked power out to 1 million Hydro-Quebec customers for up to 5 days. Between 30-40mm of freezing rain fell during that storm. (Valley Weather)

STORM UPDATE...

Freezing Rain Warning for the Montreal region for 20-30mm of frozen precipitation.

Freezing rain is forecast to start overnight and change to rain late Wednesday. There is still a chance the system could pass just to our west, allowing slightly warmer air to arrive, resulting in more liquid than frozen precipitation for Montréal.

An Orange Level weather warning has been issued by Environment Canada for a large portion of southwestern and western Quebec including the metro Montreal region. This is the first orange warning for Montreal since the new colour code system was introduced in late November.

For Montreal, the forecast and impact levels are high, but there is still some questions that remain regarding surface temperatures. Strengthening low pressure will develop over the midwest United States on Tuesday, moving towards the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. At the same time a backdoor cold front will slip south of the Montreal region late today, allowing colder air from the north to filter into the region. Winds will shift from the south to northeast, and gust to 40km/h.

Precipitation from the storm system will begin to override the cold air at the surface later tonight, with showers eventually changing to steady freezing rain after midnight. After a daytime high close to 10C (50F) on Tuesday, Montreal will drop to 0C (32F) by midnight. Winds will shift form the south to northeast, gusting up to 40km/h at times. Temperatures will remain near the freezing point on Wednesday.

Freezing rain will persist into Wednesday across the greater Montreal region and especially the Ottawa Valley. Temperatures may rise above freezing from Montreal south allowing the freezing rain to changeover to plain rain Wednesday afternoon. The rain may be heavy at times. A total of 25-50mm of moisture is available with this system.

The temperature profile will be very close to the freezing point, with a range of precipitation types possible across the metro region. Another factor will be the warm temperatures that have preceded the storm. This may allow road surfaces to remain just wet, while ice builds up on elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees and power lines, as it did in April 2023.

The setup looks very similar to that of the April 2023 Ice Storm, that cut power to over 1 million Quebec homes and businesses, some for up to 5 days. The storm also did tremendous damage to trees and cars.

Expect power outages and travel delays on Wednesday.

Precipitation will taper off to flurries on Thursday, as temperatures drop significantly behind the storm.

Significant freezing rain possible across the Montreal region by Wednesday

Forecasters are watching a storm system that could bring significant freezing rain to the Montreal region on Wednesday. The event may be similar to the April 2023 Ice Storm. (Valley Weather)

Special Weather Statement for significant freezing rain on Wednesday.

By now many of you may have read on social media of the possibility of a significant ice storm on Wednesday for portions of southern Quebec and the Ottawa Valley. The possibility does exist, but it is a rather complicated forecast. The event is shaping up similar to the April ice storm of 2023. 

Very warm air will prevail for the Montreal region to start the week, with highs surging into the teens for Monday and Tuesday. Strong southwest winds will develop on Monday, gusting up to 70km/h at times. The warm temperatures will rapidly melt the snow and ice pack, contributing to the ongoing flooding occurring along portions of the Châteauguay River as well as other locations. Flood warnings have been issued for several municipalities in southern Quebec, Ontario and northern New York. Pay close attention to what your local municipal officials are telling you regarding ice jams and rising water.

Ice jam flooding along the Châteauguay River in Châteauguay on Sunday. Flooding was also occurring in Huntingdon and points south as rapid snowmelt continues due to the very warm temperatures. (Ville de Châteuguay) 

By Wednesday, deepening low pressure over the central Unites States will move northeast towards the Great Lakes, while Arctic high pressure to the north will begin to drain cold air into the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will fall towards the freezing point by early Wednesday morning, as precipitation begins to overspread the region from the south.

At this time a very pronounced thermal boundary will traverse the region close to the US border, with freezing rain and snow to the north and plain rain falling to the south. Where that boundary establishes itself will determine who receives the freezing rain. Precipitation amounts will be significant from eastern Ontario across southern Quebec into northern New Brunswick, with 20-40mm of rain possible. If just half of that fell as freezing rain, we would have significant impacts. Further north heavy snow and blowing snow are likely.

Stay tuned to future forecasts and weather warnings that will be issued as the event unfolds. Prepare now for what could be a significant weather event in Montreal, with perhaps tree damage and prolonged power outages. Travel may be greatly impacted on the road and in the air through Thursday.

Behind this storm, more wintry weather is possible, as temperatures drop below freezing through the weekend, with snow possible by Sunday.

Roller coaster temperature ride forecast for Montreal

The ice along the Ile Perrot shoreline is beginning to thin this week. Much warmer temperatures this weekend, along with at least 10 to 15mm of rain, will allow for significant snow and ice melt in the Montreal region. Water levels will be on the rise, making the ice unstable and dangerous. (Valley Weather)

March and April often feature some of the largest range temperatures over the entire year as winter and spring battle it out. A perfect example has been Montreal over the last 24 hours. The high on Wednesday was 7C (45F) at Trudeau Airport. Overnight a backdoor cold front settled southwest from central Quebec, introducing gusty northeast winds and rapidly dropping temperatures. Montreal has struggled to reach -5C (23F) on Thursday, with mostly cloudy skies and a brisk northeast wind of up to 50km/h. Windchills have been in the low minus teens, currently -15C (5F) as I write.

Weak low pressure will pass well south of Montreal overnight, keeping a light wintry mix primarily across southern New York and New England. Arctic high pressure will remain to our northeast, while a summer-like Bermuda high develops off the southeast US coast.

The two airmasses will duke it out over the next week or so. For Montreal, after a cold overnight and chilly start to Friday, much warmer southwest winds will develop. Low pressure will approach the Great Lakes on Saturday and pass to the west of southern Quebec. The result will be very warm, moist air moving northeast, along with scattered showers. Highs Friday will be very mild, rising above freezing to 6C (43F). Even milder air arrives on Saturday, with a run at 15C (59F) possible.

Slightly cooler air arrives Sunday, before more warm air surges back north on Monday and Tuesday. All this is subject to change as the two airmasses battle each other. One thing looks certain for the short-term, there will be significant snow and ice melt occurring. That will prompt a rise in area rivers and streams. Additionally, the ice will become quite unstable in the Montreal region, and therefore quite dangerous. Best advice would be to stay off it, and monitor waterways if your area is prone to flooding.

As we take a brief look into the middle portion of March, it appears much colder air is set to return, along with some accumulating snow. Don't remove those winter tires just yet.

Partly cloudy skies in Montreal for lunar eclipse early Tuesday

The spectacular full worm moon will turn blood red early Tuesday morning, as a full lunar eclipse occurs here in Montreal. The eclipse will be visible to billions across North America, Australia and Asia. (NASA)

The full worm moon will take on a blood red appearance early Tuesday morning during the full lunar eclipse visible across North America. Here in Montreal, the eclipse will begin at 3:44 AM, becoming partial by 4:50AM and total at 6:27AM. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy in Montreal for viewing, with cold temperatures around -12C (10F). 

Unfortunately here in Montreal, the moon will be close to the horizon during the period of totality, so you will need an elevated, unobstructed location for ideal viewing. Adding to the setting moon, will be the rising sun, set to occur at 6:28AM in Montreal on Tuesday morning. This will effectively put an end to the eclipse at that time. The lunar eclipse occurs as the Earth passes directly between the Sun and the Moon, casting its shadow on the moon's surface.

Meteorological Spring

Did you feel Meteorological Spring arrive Sunday? Hard to with temperatures in the minus teens and windchills in the -20s, along with a dusting of fresh snow to start March. Monday morning was cold as well, -19C (-2F) at Trudeau Airport, with -22C (-8F) at my home on Ile Perrot. Southwest winds will develop Monday up to 40km/h, making it feel brisk outside, as temperatures slowly rise to -7C (19F).

The good news is that very warm weather is on our doorstep. The snow we expected late Tuesday will pass well south of Montreal. We can expect fair weather through Thursday, with above freezing temperatures, starting Tuesday at 1C (34F). We have a chance for some rain and freezing rain along a warm front into Friday morning, that may cause some travel concerns. By Friday afternoon into next weekend and beyond, expect well-above normal high temperatures, soaring into the low teens by next weekend, with a forecast high of 12C (54F) by Saturday.

Much colder weather to start March - but it won't last long

Another 10 to 15cm of snow fell across the Montreal region this past Wednesday. With the cold temperatures experienced this winter, most of the snow remains piled high across suburban neighbourhoods. Much warmer weather is on the way once we move past the next 48 hours, which should help begin to melt away the snow and ice.

February is ending on a spring-like note, as temperatures have soared to 9.2C (49F) here on Ile Perrot and just slightly cooler at Trudeau Airport. While today is the warmest day of the year so far, it is well short of the 2024 record high for the date of 13.8C (56F).

The weather has been windy and warm, with just some scattered light showers along a cold front that crossed the region Saturday morning. Frigid air is set to filter southeast across Ontario and southern Quebec over the next few hours, with temperatures falling to morning lows Sunday of  -10C (14F).

Gusty winds of 40-60km/h Saturday afternoon, will slowly dimmish overnight, with light winds expected Sunday. Some flurries are possible both Saturday night and Sunday. Monday morning will be very cold, with lows around -20C (-4F) expected in Montreal.

Conditions will begin to warm quickly as we start March, with some snow possible Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure moves south of Montreal. Beyond that into the second week of March, we are expecting well-above normal temperatures, with highs in the upper single digits above freezing. Overnight lows will remain milder than normal as well. Good news for those if would like to see the piles of snow and ice begin to melt away.

Taking a brief look back at February, it was a cold month, but with limited precipitation. The coldest low at Trudeau Airport was -21.5C (-6.7F) on the 8th. The temperature remained below freezing on 22 of the 28 days. In terms of precipitation, we measured 31.4cm of snow and 0.2mm of rain, both below normal for the month, with the main storm track passing either south and west of Montreal, or along the Atlantic Coast. The normal snowfall for February is typical closer to 47cm for Montreal.