Friday, June 29, 2018

Significant heatwave to impact southern Quebec

A significant heatwave is expected in Montreal though late next week. High temperatures are forecast into the middle 30s, with overnight lows remaining warm in the low to mid 20s. High humidity levels will make it uncomfortable and dangerous at times.(AccuWeather.com)
Friday will be the first day in a week long heatwave forecast for much of eastern North America. Warm high pressure will move from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and slowly across Quebec and New England over the next few days. Heat and humidity will start to build on Friday in Montreal, with the warmest days expected Sunday through Tuesday.

A dangerous combination of high temperatures and humidity will see daily humidex values ranging from the upper 30s into the middle 40s. Heat warnings and advisories have been posted for a wide area of Ontario and the Ohio Valley into New York and New England. Those should be extended into southern Quebec today or Saturday. Records should fall in many locations. The warmest day ever recorded in Montreal was 37.6C (99.7F), August 1, 1975. We have a slight chance of equaling that during this heatwave.

As far as practical weather is concerned, we will have hazy sunshine most of the time. As the warm air advances into southern Quebec, an area of thunderstorms is expected on the periphery of the air mass. These may affect Montreal as early as Friday afternoon. There is also a risk of storms Saturday afternoon, and Monday through Thursday of next week. High temperatures will range from 30C (86F) on Friday, up to 36C (97F) Canada Day and Monday. The balance of next week will remain very warm, with slightly more cloud cover and thunderstorm activity, look for highs of 32C to 35C (90 to 95F). Overnight lows will remain very warm, especially in urban areas, between 21C to 24C (70 to 75F).

It is important to be vigilant during heat of this intensity. Heat stroke can occur very quickly. Stay hydrated, avoid overexertion during the peak heating hours. Pay close attention to the very young and old. Walk your pets in the early morning hours or late at night. Cars and heat do not mix as we have tragically seen this summer in Montreal. Children and pets should only be near vehicles with you, and ideally with the air conditioning on. Try to conserve energy during peak morning and afternoon hours, avoid running large appliances other than the A/C.

Stay cool and stay safe. Happy Canada Day!

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Sweltering heatwave forecast by Canada Day for Ontario and Quebec

The first heatwave of the season should arrive in Montreal by the end of the week. High temperatures are expected to reach the middle 30s. (AccuWeather.com)
The first heatwave of the summer is anticipated by the end of this week, with record setting temperatures quite likely. Montreal can expect sunshine and warmer temperatures on Tuesday, with a high reaching 25C (77F). On Wednesday, low pressure and a warm front will approach form the Great Lakes, with a period of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts may approach 25mm (1 inch) is several locations across southern Quebec. The temperatures will remain mild despite the clouds and rain, with highs generally in the middle 20s.

Record Setting Heatwave
The passing warm front will set the stage for what could be a record setting heatwave across a large portion of eastern North America. Strong, warm high pressure will surge into the Ohio Valley and slowly move across the northeastern US through the Canada Day/ July 4th holiday period. The temperature will rise above 21C (70F) early Thursday morning in Montreal, and likely not fall below again until late Tuesday night. During this time, warm southwest winds will drive high temperatures into the low to mid-30s. By Sunday, the high may reach 37C (99F) in Montreal and Ottawa. Combined with building humidity, several cities may see humidex values as high as 45C (113F). The heat will surge into southern Ontario by Thursday, reaching Montreal and southern Quebec Friday. High temperatures across a wide portion of the region will reach between 35 and 37C (95 to 100F). 

As far as records go, the highest officially recorded temperature in Montreal was 37.6C (99.7F) set on August 1, 1975. In Ottawa, 37.8C (100F), set on August 11, 1944. During the 1975 heatwave in Montreal, several urban locations did rise above the 100F mark. The feeling is that several locations in southern Quebec and Ontario, may approach the 100F mark on July 1st. Whether we break the century mark or not, it will be dangerously hot. Heat advisories will likely be needed. Urban areas without air conditioning, will become unbearable by the end of the weekend. It is important during high heat events to remain hydrated and avoid over exertion. Be extremely vigilant when it comes to pets and children, especially around hot cars. Be sure to check on elderly relatives or neighbours. 

Friday, June 15, 2018

Powerful thunderstorms sweep the Prairies - humid weekend for Montreal

Severe thunderstorms produced large hail that covered the ground near Estevan, Saskatchewan late Thursday afternoon. (Photo by Byron Fichter via The Weather Network)
A wave of severe thunderstorms swept across southern Saskatchewan last evening, producing flooding, strong winds, funnel clouds and tennis ball size hail in spots. The hail stripped siding from homes, damaged cars and windows and flattened vegetation and crops. Numerous power outages were reported, with SaskPower working to repair storm damage and restore power across the southeast part of the province this morning. The super-cell storms were part of an area of severe weather that stretched from northeast Montana into North Dakota and southern Manitoba. A peak wind gust of 151km/h was reported near Estevan and 96km/h at Deerwood, Manitoba. Large hail, as big as softballs, was reported all across southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan. A confirmed tornado occurred near Waskada, Manitoba around 7pm Thursday evening.

Building humidity for Montreal
In southern Quebec, Thursday was rather damp and dreary behind a departing cold front, with a high of only 17C (63F) in Montreal. The cool weather will be very short-lived, as sunshine returns to end the work week. The temperature will respond nicely to the June sun today, rising to 24C (76F). The front in question brought Montreal some needed moisture, with 15mm falling since late Wednesday. A few isolated thunderstorms also occurred in southern Quebec, but the bulk of the severe weather remained in Ontario on Wednesday afternoon. 

As we head into the weekend, the heat and humidity will be on the rise again across southern Ontario and extreme southwest Quebec. Sunshine is expected Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 20s. On Sunday, a very warm and moist air mass will move into Ontario and Quebec along with a mix of clouds and sun. Expect high temperatures near 30C (86F) in Montreal and a sultry 34C (95F) in Toronto. Along with the heat will come the threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be on the strong side, with the main threat being very heavy rain. The muggy, thundery weather will persist into Monday in southern Quebec.

Monday, June 11, 2018

Last week of spring very summer-like in Montreal

While the spring thunderstorm season has been fairly tame in southern Quebec so far, such has not been the case in western Canada. Portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan reported large hail, heavy rain, powerful winds and even isolated tornadoes over the weekend. Over 10,000 lightning strikes occurred Saturday alone in Alberta, with winds gusting to 122km/h at Lloydminster. A peak wind gust of 135km/h was observed at Scott, Saskatchewan. The spectacular photo above of a shelf cloud, was taken near Pierceland, Alberta and posted to The Weather Network website via Twitter. (TWN Photo)
Summer officially arrives at 6:07AM EDT, Thursday, June 21. After a cool start to the week early Monday morning, the weather is looking very summer-like to end Spring 2018.

After a glorious weekend across southern Quebec, the work week is starting much the same, with abundant sunshine and warm temperatures forecast. Montreal dipped to 9C (49F) early Monday morning, however don't let the cool start to the day fool you. Warm southwest winds are developing, and the temperature should respond nicely under the strong June sun. Look for a high temperatures near 24C (76F). Clear skies are forecast Monday night, with milder temperatures than this morning, lows near 15C (59F).

On Tuesday, even warmer air will stream northward into Montreal, along with a, slight increase in humidity, expect highs near 27C (81F). A cold front arrives on Wednesday, along with an increase in clouds, showers and thunderstorms. Expect a muggy high near 25C (77F). The balance of the week will see a return to sunny and warm weather, with high temperatures eventually reaching close to 30C (86F) by next weekend.

Friday, June 08, 2018

Perfect weather for Grand Prix weekend in Montreal

The weather in Montreal will be perfect for the Grand Prix du Canada this weekend. (AP Photo)
The weather is expected to be exceptional for this weekends activities at Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve in Montreal. The annual Grand Prix du Canada takes place on Sunday, with other racing and qualifying scheduled for Saturday. Strong high pressure over western Quebec will nudge slowly across the region through Monday. Saturday will feature wall to wall sunshine, with low humidity. Conditions will be a little breezy, with high temperatures of 22C to 24C (72-76F). Sunday will be nearly perfect for the F1, 70 lap main event, look for sunny weather, low humidity and light winds.  The high will be near 21C (70F), perhaps a little warmer at track level.

Looking ahead to early next week, high pressure will hold over southern Quebec. Expect sunny, warm weather through Wednesday. Whatever your plans are this weekend, enjoy, be safe and be good to each other.

Monday, June 04, 2018

Cold wet start to the work week in Montreal

A June snowfall greeted residents on Monday morning in Quidi Vidi Harbour, Newfoundland. (NTV Webcam)
After a perfect weekend, Monday dawned, rainy, windy and cold across southern Quebec. Montreal dropped from 24C (76F) late Sunday evening to 9C (49F) by morning. Combined with a brisk northeast wind of 50km/h, it was downright miserable. The cool weather was accompanied by steady rain, with 27mm falling as of midday Monday. The moisture is welcome, as the area did have a precipitation deficit since the start of May. However, I could do without the cold weather, as summer is short enough.

The culprit for the unseasonably cold weather is a slow moving upper level trough of low pressure sliding across the Great Lakes. The cool, wet weather will continue into Tuesday, before high pressure returns midweek.

June Snow!
It could be much worse, snow is falling once again across portions of Newfoundland. Winter is long enough in this country without June snow. St John's was only -1C (30F) this morning, with snow falling. Some locations measured as much as 5cm, with 10cm expected along the northwest coast. The normal high in St. John's is 15C (59F) for early June, however the forecast high for Monday is only 3C (38F). Other portions of Atlantic Canada fared no better, dipping to the freezing point last evening, with many locations reporting frost. Over a dozen record lows were set, including -2.2C (28F) in Edmundston, New Brunswick, -4.2C (24F) in Churchill Falls and -2.3C (28F) in Truro, Nova Scotia.

Friday, June 01, 2018

Welcome to Meteorological Summer

A North Carolina Department of Transportation dump truck was swept into flood waters on Thursday in the western part of the state. Widespread flooding has claimed 5 lives from Georgia to the Carolina's after the remains of tropical storm Alberto moved north with torrential rain and flash flooding. (NCDOT Photo)
Thursday was the warmest day of 2018 in Montreal, reaching 30.2C (86F) at Trudeau Airport. So far this morning, the low temperature has remained above 21C (70F), which would be a new record for the warmest low, the previous was 19.1C in 2013. The weather is right on schedule, as June 1st is the official start of meteorological summer. Basically, and really summarized here, we are looking at a warm and muggy summer in southern Quebec, with near to slightly above normal precipitation and temperatures. So basically nothing to see here, just a regular summer in Montreal.

Our current warm and humid air mass is courtesy of the remains of tropical storm Alberto. June 1st is also the start of Atlantic hurricane season. Alberto jumped the queue a little, arriving last Monday along the Florida Gulf Coast. The system generated minimal impacts along the coastal regions, but has become a big flash flood and thunderstorm producer through the Appalachians into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The broad circulation of what is left of Alberto, is currently moving into central Ontario. East of the low, warm and humid air is being pumped northward into southern Quebec. Friday will see the end of this stretch of warm weather, as a cold front arrives late in the day. Accompanying the front will be thunderstorms, some strong with heavy rain and gusty winds. The high in Montreal will be a muggy 27C (81F) on Friday.

The weekend looks perfect in Montreal, with sunshine and mild temperatures. Expect highs near 23C (73F) and cool overnight lows near 10C (50F). The start of next week will not be great. A cool, moist air mass from Atlantic Canada will prevail through Wednesday, with well below normal temperatures, clouds and showers.