Weekend Update

NOAA Image of category 2 Ophelia southeast of Bermuda on Friday morning.

There is lots to talk about on this last Friday in September. First off, the second of two upper level lows will begin to affect Quebec today. The storm along with a strong Arctic front are located over the Great Lakes. Strong winds in excess of 50mph have built waves to over 20 feet on Lake Michigan and high winds and waves are affecting all of the Great Lakes this morning. The waves have halted ferry service at several locations. Thunderstorms off of Lake Ontario pounded Toronto overnight with some flooding and gusty winds.

Meanwhile yesterday's front produced heavy rain in Montreal, especially in the west end and off island towards Ontario. Dorval recorded 26mm of rain while I measured about 51mm (2 inches) at my home on Ile Perrot. The frontal system also produced nasty thunderstorms across the northeast and Ontario with more flooding and even some waterspouts (tornadoes over water) over the lower lakes. More are expected today on Lakes Erie and Ontario as strong lake effect storms develop in the advancing cold air.

What all this means for Montreal and southern Quebec is a cool, cloudy and showery weekend, very fall like. High temperatures will struggle to reach 12C with gusty winds making it feel raw. This comes after a week of above normal temperatures, high humidity, swatting mosquito's and short sleeve shirrs. But don't expect the cold to last too long, more above normal temperatures will spread into the Prairies over the weekend and possibly move east next week.

HURRICANE OPHELIA: Finally, Ophelia is back from the dead. After dissipating early in the week the Atlantic storm regained strength and has rapidly become the fourth hurricane of the season. Ophelia this morning has category 2 winds of 105 mph and is located 695 miles southeast of Bermuda. Ophelia is expected to brush Bermuda before racing off towards southeast Newfoundland late in the weekend or early Monday. It is too soon to say what impacts she will have on the island province, but there will be some and they could be significant. Stay tuned.

Clouds & Showers

This update will be brief this morning. A closed off low pressure area over the Great Lakes is finally shifting east over Quebec today. That means our sunny and warm weather has come to an end. Look for lots of clouds and showers today and well into this upcoming weekend. Some showers may become heavy and there is even the risk of thunderstorms. Locally rainfall amounts could exceed 25mm (1 inch). Temperatures will be mild again today, well above normal at 23C but then cooler weather will move in as a northwest flow develops on the back side of this stubborn low pressure. By the weekend a steady rain is likely with temperatures no better than 10 or 12C during the day and as chilly as 3 or 4C at night. Frost is possible in Ontario this weekend and in Quebec early next week,

Goodbye to a true gentleman - Stuart Hall

There are several people who have influenced my interest in weather over the years. Two that stand out above all others were my father, who passed away 2 years ago, and WCAX-TV 3 Weather Forecaster, Stuart Hall. Hall passed away this past Sunday at the age of 90 after an exceptional life that included a long career at Channel 3 in Burlington, Vermont. Hall worked at WCAX-TV from two months after the station went on air in 1954 until his retirement in 1990.

Channel three is the CBS affiliate in Burlington, Vermont, available in Montreal by cable and they featured two local newscasts, one during the lunch hour, and the other at suppertime. It was the late show that would have me running to the TV set and planning my schedule around Stuart Hall's forecast. Not only did he provide his listeners with valuable information delivered in an always friendly manner, but he truly seemed to enjoy his job. It was that level of enthusiasm and expertise that drew me towards a life long interest in weather. Stuart Hall made weather "cool" long before the advent of the 24 hour weather channel and the Internet. Not only did he do so on air but also on a personal level. As a youngster, I sent him at least a half dozen letters, which he responded to each time, some handwritten and always signed by him. I still have them to this day, over 30 years after he wrote them to me, I have posted a few above.

Stuart Hall was a true gentleman and one I was so thankful to have watched through the years, and had the privilege to have communicated with. Thank You Mr. Hall, you were one of the good guys, God Bless.

“Through all kinds of weather What if the sky should fall? Just as long as we’re together, It doesn’t matter at all. When they’ve all had their quarrels and parted We’ll be the same as we started Just a-traveling along singing a song side by side.”

Photo and quote from blogs.burlingtonfreepress.com/weather
Read more HERE

More summer weather

NOAA image of a classic comma shaped upper level low spinning to our west and keeping the showers and storms over Ontario.

The sunshine and warm weather will last at least another 2 days here in southern Quebec as a stubborn slow moving upper level low spins to our west. The storm system is detached from the normal flow of air and remains nearly stationary over the upper Midwest. The result is showers and thunderstorms with even waterspouts reported over the Great Lakes since Friday but warm sunshine here in our region. Eventually the system will weaken, dissipate and begin to slowly drift east. We thought that would happen Wednesday, but it looks like we may squeeze another sunny day out of the high pressure. At any event cooler weather and showers are expected by late week and into the weekend. In the meantime we reached 25C (77F) yesterday and we can expect the same today. It is currently 14C in Montreal, and with more darkness than daylight now, we have a very heavy dew outside with patchy fog in places.

I always look around for interesting weather obs in the morning, here is one I thought you might like to see:

GJOA, Nunavut at 6am was -1C with 0.3km visibility in light snow, and an east wind of 60 gusting to 80km/h with a winter storm warning posted for 20cm (8 inches) of snow.

Enjoy our splendid summery weather here in Quebec and eastern Ontario today.

Warm weather continues

A stubborn cut off low stalled over the Great Lakes has meant poor weather for southern Ontario but spectacular weather on either side of that system in Quebec and across the west. Yesterday it was hard to tell it was late September with a warm and humid 24C high and light southwest winds. It is already 14C this morning on our way to another warm day at 25C, well above the normal high of 17C. It will be even warmer on Tuesday at 27C (81F) before the Great Lakes storm system moves into out area and hangs around into the weekend with clouds and showers starting some time on Wednesday.

Meanwhile the Prairies and Alberta are scorching under mid-summer heat. Edmonton recorded its warmest day of 2011 with a high of 32.5C smashing the old record of 30.6C set in 1952. They were not the warmest, Leader, Sask. had a high of 35.4C to be the warmest in the country. Assiniboia, Sask. also had a record high of 32.1C. Several other records fell across both provinces and south into Montana and the Dakotas.

SNOW: There is some winter on the weather map but you have to go all the way north into the high Arctic where winter storm warnings are posted for eastern and central Nunavut. A strong fall storm will bring 10-15cm of snow and winds over 70 km/h producing blowing snow and dangerous travel. Enjoy the bonus summer weather here in southern Canada as many were over the weekend. All of us know this weather is a gift and soon the seasons will balance things out.

Weekend Update

From AccuWeather.com - low pressure stalled to our west is providing warm humid air here in Quebec and more heavy rain for the I-95 corridor.

Fall has arrived as of 5:05am this morning with lots of dense fog around. A very moist and warm air mass remains well established over the region. Low pressure is stalled to our west over the Great Lakes with a steady stream of southwest winds bringing in the unseasonable warmth and humidity. All weekend and well into next week, temperatures will remain well above normal. For the near term we have dense fog this morning across the region, especially south of the city and into New York and Vermont. The National Weather Service has posted a Dense Fog Advisory until 9am this morning. Visibility is as low and 1/8 of a mile. Here on Ile Perrot we have some mist and fog but is otherwise clear. Most of the upcoming weekend will be rain free and very warm for late September. Temperatures will range from 20 to 25C (68 to 77F) with clouds and sun mixed and the outside chance of a shower today and Saturday. Sunday will be sunny and warm. Temperatures at night will only be in the 14 to 17C range (56F to 63F).

The bulk of the moisture will remain well south of Quebec across the middle Atlantic and northeast. The same dynamics that will be pumping warm and humid air into our region will also produce steady and at times heavy rain in that area. Flash flood watches are in effect from Virginia to New Jersey. This is the same area hit hard by Irene, and with up to 3 more inches of rain possible, more flooding is expected.

Autumnal Equinox

Equinox is the Latin word for equal nights and that is what we are approaching this week. Fall officially arrives at 5:05am Eastern time on Friday, making today the last day of the summer. Summer was spectacular in southern Quebec with more sun than cloud and lots of warm weekends. We enjoyed much better weather than a big chunk of North America that had everything from severe droughts to floods.

In reality the equal day vs night event will take place for Montreal on Monday, September 26 when the sun rises at 6:47am and sets at 6:46pm giving us 11:59 of daylight. After that it is a slippery slope into darkness where night is longer than day and this continues sadly until spring.

The last day of summer in Montreal is mild with temperatures already at 19C or one degree above the normal of 18C for this date. Temperatures will reach 23C with humid conditions and thunderstorms possible. A cold front to our west over Ontario should bring in the chance for showers and storms through the midday before skies clear out. Of note this morning, the Richelieu River southeast of Montreal that flooded so badly this spring is running very high for September. As a result of the heavy rain falling from Hurricane Irene making its way into Lake Champlain and flowing north, the river is three feet above normal. Officials are watching it closely for possible flooding this fall, but they are especially concerned for next spring.

Perfect Ten

As summer draws to a close we are looking at a near perfect day today. High pressure will guarantee bright sunshine and warm temperatures in Montreal and region wide into Ontario and New England. Temperatures will rise to 23C in the city and 20-25C across the area. Tomorrow clouds will be on the increase and showers will develop, but it will remain mild at 23C. With the long and chilly nights that occur as falls approaches, some fog formed overnight. It is quite dense in places especially outside the city, but it should dissipate quickly this morning.

Yesterday's North Dakota low pressure area produced heavy rain across southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. 74mm fell at Winkler, Manitoba with 50-60mm elsewhere. Strong winds were also reported from Saskatchewan and the Dakotas into Manitoba.

T.S. Ophelia: Another tropical storm has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. Ophelia is located about 2200 km east of the Leeward Islands. The system has 45mph winds and is moving west at 13mph. Slow strengthening is likely as Ophelia moves towards the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and eventually the Bahamas by late in the upcoming weekend.

Clearing today

(AccuWeather.com)

A slow moving and weakening cold front produced some steady shower activity overnight with about 15mm of rain at my home in southwestern Quebec. Most of the rain is off to our south and east and clearing skies are moving this way from Ontario. It will be a rather mild couple of days ahead of us into the first half of the weekend with temperatures in the low to mid 20's (70-75F). Sunshine will return this afternoon region wide followed by clear skies tonight and a near perfect day on Wednesday. Clouds will be on the increase overnight into Thursday as a frontal system and slow moving low pressure head this way just in time for the weekend. At this time showers and mild for Friday and Saturday, with much cooler weather by Sunday.

Fall arrives this Friday and we have some climatic indicators on the weather map. Normally as fall arrives and progresses, the low pressure areas over the continent begin to become much more energetic. We are seeing a gusty low pressure this morning over the Dakotas. This system will produce heavy rain today across southern Manitoba and into Northwest Ontario. Amounts could easily exceed 50mm. Meanwhile on the back side of the storm strong winds are occurring across the Dakotas and southern Saskatchewan with gusts possible over 90km/h/ This system will move east and affect northern Ontario with rain and dare I say perhaps a period of wet snow! Temperatures fall behind the storm, with well below normal readings expected to end the week.

Warmer weather

Location of yesterday's small quake on the Ontario/Quebec border. (USGS Map)
(click on map for larger image)

After our first taste of frost and fall like weather, we will see a return to mild temperatures this week along with some cloud cover and showers. The weekend was spectacular but chilly with overnight lows in the single digits in most areas and even below freezing across the Adirondacks and Laurentians. Scattered frost was observed at many locations away from the water and urban areas. The high pressure that was responsible for the clear skies and cool temperatures, crested over the region last night and will drift off to the east today allowing for some warmer air to return. Temperatures will rebound after another cool start today up to 21C in Montreal and perhaps 18 to 20C across the region. A cold front will introduce clouds and showers from the St. Lawrence Valley south and east after midnight tonight until midday Tuesday before skies clear out once again. A sunny, warm Wednesday is on tap, perhaps the last 25C day of summer 2011.

Earthquake: A small quake rattled the area yesterday afternoon around 3:19pm. The 4.0 magnitude quake was centered near Buckingham 41km east of Ottawa and northwest of Montreal, and was felt all over a wide area. No damage was reported.

Frosty night

Another cold and frosty night is expected across southern Quebec with overnight lows from 5C in Montreal down to below freezing off island north and south of the city. Frost warnings are in effect for a wide portion of the region from the Laurentians south into the Townships as well as Eastern Ontario. Sunday will be sunny and warmer with temperatures warming up to 20C.

Hurricane Maria made landfall on the Avalon Peninsula late Friday with gusty winds and about 60mm of rain, but only 13mm in St. John's. The fast moving storm meant water and wave damage was minimal and the strongest winds remained well east of the center with 130km/h winds offshore. On the west side of the system in the broad circulation winds gusted to 90km/h over far eastern Quebec and the Gaspe.

Hurricane Watch for Newfoundland

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Newfoundland coast from Arnolds Cove to Brigus South. At 8pm Hurricane Maria was racing northeast at 65km/h towards a collision with the Avalon Peninsula. Forecasters expect the storm, which is about 1475km southwest of Cape Race, to arrive on the coast sometime Friday. Hurricane force winds in excess of 120km/h are forecast along with 3 to 7 metre seas (9 to as much as 20 feet) along the coast and up to 90mm of rainfall. The good news is Maria will be a fast moving storm hopefully lessening the impact and duration on any one location. Effects from Maria in the form of clouds, showers and rough surf will be felt all across Atlantic Canada for the next 24 to 48 hours before Maria moves north over the Atlantic as an extratropical storm.

The official Environment Canada statement is available HERE.

Cooler weather

The forecast track of tropical storm Maria brings her west of Bermuda, east of Nova Scotia and then across southeast Newfoundland by the weekend.
(Environment Canada)

Wow, how quickly the weather and seasons can change. With fall just a week away, cold air is pouring into the northern plains and Prairies. It is -5C this morning in Regina and 0C in Winnipeg, both were in the 30's just last week. Montreal managed to reach 27C yesterday before a turbulent cold front raced across the region. Thunderstorms lasting several hours, produced heavy rain, over 25mm in many locations.

Today southern Quebec will see variable skies with temperatures nudging to the 21C mark. Another cold front will bring showers tonight and a re-enforcing shot of cold air that will see temperatures drop to cold lows around 5C by Friday morning and daytime highs only around 15C.

Tropical Storm Maria is south of Bermuda this morning and expected to pass west of the island on Thursday before accelerating northeast. The storm is forecast to come close to Nova Scotia and possibly cross the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland by the weekend. Heavy rain, strong surf and gusty winds can be expected from Maria in southern coastal Nova Scotia and especially southern and eastern Newfoundland. Currently the storm has 60mph winds with some strengthening expected over the next 24 hours.

Strong storms

9:24pm UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Watch will expire by 10pm for Montreal. About 25mm of rain has fallen since 7:30 here on L'Ile Perrot. Most of the strong storms are south of Montreal to the US border and into the Champlain Valley. The activity will continue to move south and east and conditions will calm down shortly.

myweather.com radar image at 8:10pm this evening shows storms moving across Ile Perrot and onto Montreal island. A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for the region. They should move south and east of the city by 9pm.

Lightning and thunder along with heavy rain is spreading across the Montreal metro region at 8pm. Lines of heavy thunderstorms have been affecting the region and should continue moving northeast along a cold front for about the next hour or so. The storms have produced some rotation so an isolated tornado is possible. Tornado warnings were issued for Laval earlier this evening, but have since expired. No damage has been reported so far.

Severe thunderstorms possible

A sign of the seasons - last nights full Harvest Moon as seen in southern California.

It is still hard for me to believe that summer is nearing an end, especially with the way the weather has been for the last 48 hours. There is however, evidence on the weather map this morning that changes are coming. Lets start with yesterday's muggy high of 26C in Montreal, well above normal for this time of year. Other cities in the region were equally warm with Ottawa and Toronto at 29C. We can expect much the same today with a mix of sun and clouds, warm and windy with an increasing likelihood of thunderstorms at any time today. Last evening strong storms moved along the Ottawa River and into the central and north end of Montreal, downtown and Laval. About 7mm of rain fell at the airport but much more locally in the city. It remained dry across my area with no rain or thunder.

This morning we are already under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch here in southwest Quebec as storms develop along the St. Lawrence Valley and drift northeast. The watch in posted until 9:30am. Look for more watches and warnings this afternoon as a potent cold front sweeps across the area from Ontario. The main threat will be heavy rain, perhaps 30mm, but small hail and strong winds are possible as well. The front will usher in much colder air, just how cold? Well frost and freeze warnings are in effect across the Dakotas and Minnesota with below freezing temperatures forecast tonight. More frost is likely across northern Ontario and Manitoba by the weekend. So I imagine we will see single digits for lows in southern Quebec and teens for highs as fall begins to influence our weather.

Warm start to week

Maria's forecast track takes her close to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this week. (National Hurricane Center)

What a difference 24 hours can make. Montreal's suburbs was about 8C yesterday at this time, today, the temperature is already 19C just shy of the high on Sunday. Overnight winds responded to a warm front lifting north of the city, and switched to the southwest bringing in much warmer and humid air. The warm air mass will be with us through Tuesday with a general mix of sun and clouds and a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The risk will be highest late Tuesday as a cold front moves across southern Quebec. Temperatures will cool down significantly by the middle to late portion of the work week.

Over the weekend Tropical Storm Nate dissipated along the central Gulf Coast of Mexico with very little fanfare. Maria is still a tropical storm with 60mph winds, located in the Caribbean about 140 miles north of San Jaun, Puerto Rico. Maria is expected to take a sharp right turn and move along the east coast, but well offshore. Her effects may be felt later in the week in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

9-11-2001

Please remember the victims of 911 as well as those whose sacrifices are so great so that we may live free. Thank you to those who watch over our communities everyday...Valley Weather

Weekend Update

Major flooding in northern Virginia (Washington Post)

High pressure will settle into Quebec and Ontario this weekend giving us a sunny and seasonable weekend. Temperatures will be warm today at 26C, but lower into the 18 to 20C range for daytime highs this weekend. Overnight lows will be chilly under moonlit skies between 5 and 9C. The full harvest moon will occur on Monday.

HEATWAVE: The west is enjoying what could be their final shot at summer. temperatures soared into the 30's across Alberta and Saskatchewan including a record breaking 34C at Saskatoon. At least two more hot days are on tap for the region before a cold front ushers in much cooler September air by Monday. Edmonton could break a 20 year record today with the temperature expected above 31C. The region had a dismal summer with lots of rain and cool weather.

Hurricane Katia is well south of Nova Scotia this morning and expected to remain well offshore. However Environment Canada is predicting waves and a swell of 15 to 20 feet along the immediate south facing coastlines. They are advising anyone venturing into the area to so with great care. Nate remains a nearly stationary off the Mexican Coast, but is expected to slowly drift towards Veracruz while becoming a hurricane. Maria is expected to move into the Lesser Antilles today as a tropical storm.

FLOODING: Major flooding continues in the Northeast as rivers crest from heavy rain created by Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Some areas have had 20 inches of rain from both storms. Major flooding this week is occurring from Northern Virginia and Washington DC, north into Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York including Binghampton and the Susquehanna Valley. Thousands have been forced to evacuate and the death toll is at 5. Meanwhile the damage clean up from Irene continues in hard hit Vermont and New York. Some rivers in both states recorded there highest floods in recorded modern history.

Katia, Maria and Nate

More heavy rain in southern Vermont tonight has washed out roads and produced flash flooding. (NWS Burlington)

We are currently watching three systems in the open waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katia continues to move northwest between Bermuda and the US coast. She is forecast to remain out at sea, but huge waves and swell are beginning to impact the coast from the Carolina's to Nova Scotia. Waves could build to between 7 and 10 feet in the surf zone including the south coast of Nova Scotia and Bay of Fundy. Advisories up and down the coast are in effect urging people to be very careful near the open water. The remains of Tropical Storm Lee are producing heavy rain and dangerous flash floods across the southern tier of New York into Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC and Virginia. Heavy rain will continue into the overnight hours on already saturated ground from back to back tropical systems and a very wet August.

If all that was not enough, we have tropical storms Maria and Nate. Maria is moving towards the Lesser Antilles but is still about 1200 miles from any landmass. The storm has 50 mph winds. Nate is more of an immediate concern, located in the Gulf of Mexico about 140 miles west of Campeche. The storm has prompted warnings along the west coast of the Yucatan as well as the Bay of Campeche. Nate has 45mph winds and is nearly stationary. He is expected to resume a slow eastward drift and then move north in the Gulf with the potential to become a hurricane by the weekend.

Active tropics

We have several systems of interest in the tropical Atlantic today. First, what was left of Hurricane Irene has battered the UK with hurricane force wind gusts and rain. My weather friend Mark Vogan covers this very well at http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/

Meanwhile the remains of Tropical Storm Lee are pushing into the middle Atlantic with heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. A warm front associated with the storm will lift northward across Vermont and New York today with steady rain. It will remain south of Montreal, so expect cool northeast winds today and scattered showers. We will only reach 19C for a high.

Hurricane Katia has bounced between being a major category 4 storm and barely a hurricane on her journey. She will pass uncomfortably close to the US east coast this week sending high surf against the already fragile barrier islands, especially the Outer Banks. Advisories are posted for the coastal areas. The storm will then pass through the coastal waters offshore of Atlantic Canada by the weekend.

We also have two others areas of interest one in the Caribbean east of the Lesser Antilles, and the other in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Both systems could be named storms by the end of the week with potential impacts on the islands and the US next week.

Autumn settles in

Katia should stay over the Atlantic this week and miss the east coast.

While I am certain we have some warm days ahead of us, the first work day after Labor Day is always a reality check for me. I simply love summer, I can't imagine we are on the slippery slope to winter now. Ok lets back up, lots of weather to go before then, but this morning I noticed some trees showing color and frost warnings were out this weekend for portions of the Prairies and northwest Ontario. Add to that the fact that is is only 12C this morning in Ottawa and Toronto and 13C here in Montreal and well you see what I mean.

We should clear out today after Lee produced about 40mm of rain across the region southeast of Montreal to the US border. More rain fell in Vermont with flooding reported including in Burlington. Temperatures will be a little cooler this week but still quite pleasant, with showers likely on Wednesday but otherwise fair.

The remains of tropical storm Lee continue to soak the southeast with heavy rain. Up to 15 inches fell in Louisiana over the weekend with 4 to 8 inch amounts across the southeast and into the Appalachians. We have some good news concerning Hurricane Katia this morning. She remains a powerful category 3 storm about 400 miles south of Bermuda with 125mph winds. However itt appears at this time only rough surf will affect the east coast as Katia re-curves out to sea.

Active weather pattern

Damage in Trois Rivieres from an F-0 tornado last night. (CBC.ca)

Radar is showing a long stream of rain and embedded thunderstorms this Labor Day evening stretching from the Gulf Coast all the way to the St. Lawrence Valley from what is left of Tropical Storm Lee. The storm has become a depression over Georgia. Lee has been responsible for flash flooding and tornadoes from New England to Louisiana. In southern Quebec the heaviest rain has been south of the St. Lawrence Valley to the US border. I measured about 30mm in the last 24 hours, most of that falling last evening in thunderstorms. The rain should continue this evening in Montreal and points south and east. It has been mild and very humid today as well. Last nights thunderstorms also produced Quebec's 4th tornado of the summer, this one in Trois Rivieres. Extensive damage to about 70 homes along with toppled trees and power lines was reported around 7pm last night. Environment Canada has confirmed that an F-0 storm capable of 130km/h winds struck a small section of the city. Meanwhile the storms were deadly in Ontario with a 26 year old man struck and killed by lightning at a campsite near Plantagenet, 65km east of Ottawa Sunday morning.

Thunderstorms

Flooding in Plaquemine Parrish, Louisiana from Lee. (NOLA.com)

7:00 am Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Montreal until 8pm this evening. A rare day long watch is in effect for thunderstorms. The potential exists for dangerous flood producing storms today. Warnings may be required at any time. So far the radar is clear in southern Quebec.

We have lots of weather to talk about this morning as moisture from Tropical Storm Lee and a cold front will interact to produce some heavy weather today. First it is another very humid and warm morning at 20C in Montreal. Temperatures yesterday were close to 30C, but with the thick and oppressive humidity it felt more like 40C. All that saturated air will help produce some big wet and windy thunderstorms today with the potential for flash flooding as up to 50mm could fall quickly. Once the front clears Montreal to our south tonight it will become nearly stationary and be the focus for more heavy rain from Lee. Moisture will feed into the Ohio Valley and upstate New York and eventually southern Quebec. Another 50mm through Tuesday is not out of the question. The heavy rain will result in flash flooding, especially in regions affected last week by Irene. For that reason a flash flood watch remains posted for New York and Vermont. A heavy rainfall warning is now in effect for areas southeast of Montreal including the Eastern Townships for up to 60mm of rain. It will be warm again today, near 30C, before the cold front drops temperatures into the low 20's for Monday. It will not dry out until mid-week.

Tropical Storm Lee this morning is moving very slowly onto the coast of Louisiana about 80 miles west of Morgan City. Lee has produced torrential rain and tornadoes in the last 48 hours with nearly 10 inches at both Pascagoula, Mississippi and metro New Orleans. Lee will continue to be a big rainmaker today across the south with moisture streaming into Tennessee, Ohio and the northeast US.

Severe weather occurred yesterday in southern Ontario. Strong thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90km/h near Toronto along with damage. Heavy rain and hail were also reported.

More heavy rain possible

NOAA visible image of tropical storm Lee approaching the southeast Louisiana coast this morning.

We have a potential heavy rain event developing in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern New York and most of Vermont late on Sunday. This was not in the forecast a little over 24 hours ago when I did the weekend update. First today we are under a very warm and humid air mass. The temperature in Montreal is already 25C with a humidex of 33C. We will climb close to 30C (86F) today with humidex values approaching 40C. The warm and moist air will be the catalyst for thunderstorms, some producing heavy rain into the evening. As the front moves south of Montreal on Sunday, it will stall and begin to pull deep tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Lee into the region. Heavy rain may redevelop late Sunday into Monday with the potential for 25-100mm (1-4 inches) of rain across the region with the heaviest in northern New York. The region is still reeling from the severe flooding from Irene, therefore the National Weather Service has posted a flash flood watch for New York and Vermont. Stay tuned for any possible advisories for southern Quebec.

Meanwhile Lee continues to pound the Gulf Coast this morning with torrential flooding rains. Lee is located about 15 miles southeast of Intracoastal City, Louisiana. The storm should make landfall this morning and then very slowly drift across the state and into the southeast US this coming week. Lee will spread heavy flooding rain across the region and into the Ohio Valley next week. The storm is slightly stronger this morning with 65mph winds, but the real story will be the rain. Scattered tornadoes are also occurring along the Gulf Coast. An oil rig just south of Grand Island, Louisiana reported a wind gust early this morning of 67mph. I will post another update by 7pm this evening.

Weekend Update

NOAA image of Tropical Depression 13 over the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

First off this morning a rather strong earthquake has rattled the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. The magnitude 7.1 quake has prompted a tsunami advisory for Alaska.

Our weekend forecast looks unsettled but rather warm and humid. A warm front slowly drifted north of the region overnight with a few showers. Most of the day will be partly cloudy with temperatures near 27C. In southern Ontario the mercury will soar to mid-summer highs of 34C in Windsor where a humidex advisory is posted. More showers and storms are possible over the weekend but it will be dry most of the time. Temperatures will be warm near 29C for highs and 20C for lows. It will cool of on Labor Day Monday with a better chance of showers.

Tropical Depression 13: All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this morning where TD-13 is expected to become Tropical Storm Lee later today (once winds reach 39mph or greater). Winds are around 35mph, but that will not be the story with Lee. Very heavy tropical rains are expected in coastal Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Estimates are that 10-20 inches of rain could fall which would likely result in severe flooding. The area has experienced drought most of the summer, but that much rain over a weekend is just too much. This morning tropical storm warnings are posted between Sabine Pass, Texas and the Mississippi/Alabama border, including flood prone metro New Orleans. TD 13 is about 250 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Meanwhile Katia, over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean, has weakened slightly to a tropical storm with 70mph winds. Further strengthening is forecast and Katia could become a major hurricane early next week. While still very far from land, concern is growing once again for possible impacts along the east coast of Canada and the US.

Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin tours flood ravaged homes in Rochester, Vermont on Wednesday. (Burlington Free Press Photo)

Sunshine today will give way to a few clouds and perhaps a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon in Montreal and the surrounding area. Temperatures will be warm as we begin September, 25C. Friday will be sunny and warm as well up to 27C. Skies will be mostly cloudy for the weekend with mild weather, but turning cooler by late Sunday. Skies will clear for Labor Day but it will be fall like at only 16C for a high. The weekend does not look like a wash out at all with precipitation being mostly scattered.

The tropics remain active, Katia now a hurricane, is in the open waters of the Atlantic with 75mph winds. At the moment the system is no threat to land. The hurricane is expected to increase in intensity over the next 48 hours. We could also have a weekend system in the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression may form and head towards the northern Gulf Coast. If the system develops into a tropical storm, it will be called Lee.