Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Widespread damage across Quebec in the wake of storm

A deep coastal storm produced damaging winds across southern Quebec on Monday, including the Eastern Townships shown above. (Photo: Sandra Thomson) 
The storm is over but the scars remain. Montreal was rather fortunate, as the worst of the powerful coastal storm seemed to split the city. Deep low pressure moved just west of Montreal, producing near record low barometric pressure (976mb) and winds up to 80km/h. We were lucky ones. Other regions had winds in excess of 100km/h, combined with torrential rains and flooding.

In the wake of the storm, nearly 1.5 million customers were without power in New England, Quebec and Ontario. As of 11am Tuesday, 40,000 Hydro Quebec customers were still without power across the province. The utility has over 700 personnel on the job. The storm also took down thousands of trees, many onto homes and cars. Peak wind gusts over the last 36 hours included, 214km/h (133mph) on Mount Washington, New Hampshire, 101km/h (63mph) at Burlington, Vermont, 109km/h (68mph) at Port Menier, Quebec, 87km/h (54mph) at Saint Hubert and 80km/h (49mph) at Trudeau Airport in Montreal. Warm air circulated along the east side of the low pressure, with 28 record highs reported in Quebec on Monday. Thunderstorms even rattled across Quebec City producing additional heavy rain and wind damage.

Hydro Quebec has 700 workers on the job, after strong winds knocked power out to over 200,000 Quebec homes. Above a crew works in Knowlton, Quebec. (Knowlton.com)
West of the storm track, extremely heavy rain fell. Flooding occurred in Ottawa/Gatineau, where 112mm of rain fell in less than 48 hours. Today a flood watch remains in effect across the Rideau Valley. Major flooding was also reported in New Hampshire, where numerous rivers overflowed their banks, sweeping away roads and in some cases entire homes.

Cold air has settled into southern Quebec for Halloween. Gusty west winds will continue today, diminishing towards sunset. Temperatures will be near 4C (39F) for trick or treating. Indications are that the cool weather and perhaps even flurries or light snow will occur during the first week of November. Now might be the time to get those snow tires on.

Monday, October 30, 2017

Damaging winds for Montreal

NOAA water vapor image of powerful low pressure moving north up the Hudson Valley, (dry slot in the middle of the image) towards Montreal this morning.
A high wind warning remains in effect for the entire region this morning. Winds have been gusting in excess of 100km/h across the Eastern Townships into Vermont overnight. In Montreal, gusts have been up to 60km/h, but they will increase towards 90km/h this morning. Deep low pressure will move north from the Hudson Valley towards Massena, New York today and into western Quebec tonight. Extremely low barometric pressure readings have been occurring across our area, with 977mb here at my home on L'Ile Perrot and 972mb at Ottawa. This represents the lowest pressure of the year for L'Ile Perrot. Also, the pressure has fallen 20mb since midnight, indicating just how strong this storm is. Southeast winds and a dry slot cut off precipitation here in Montreal overnight, with 25 to 30mm recorded. On the cold side of the storm in Ottawa, heavy rain fell all night, with in excess of 50mm falling. The weather is also very warm in Montreal this morning. With a temperature of 19C (66F) at 6am, Montreal is the warmest location in the country.

Storm damage in New England overnight. (NBCCT)
The wind has caused widespread damage and power outages across New England and Quebec. In Quebec, Hydro is reporting 157,000 customers without power as of 7am. That number will only grow as the strongest winds move into metro Montreal.

As the storm moves north of Montreal today, winds will shift to the southwest and west and eventually diminish a little by evening. Temperatures will also drop rapidly today back into the single digits. Showers, some heavy are expected through early afternoon.

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Heavy rain warning for Montreal & Eastern Ontario

Strong damaging wins are forecast for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. (AccuWeather.com)
11:00 AM Sunday Storm Update:
Low pressure, a combination of a developing coastal storm along with input from Tropical Storm Philippe, is forecast to move northward along the east coast today. By Monday, the strong fall storm will be very close to Montreal. Rain has developed today well in advance of the system and will increase in coverage an intensity tonight. A heavy rain warning has been issued by Environment Canada for Montreal and most of southern Quebec. The warnings extend into Ontario and New York. Forecast rain amounts for the next 24 hours are quite impressive, with 50 to 100mm (2 to 4 inches) expected from Montreal west towards Kingston and south into upstate New York. In addition to the heavy rain, strong winds are forecast late today and Monday. The winds will increase out of the southeast up to 100km/h (60mph) late today from central New England towards the Eastern Townships. On Monday the area of strongest winds will be the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern Ontario, where gust will approach 90km/h (55mph), including here in Montreal. Some flooding is possible from the heavy rain, but I think the real concern with this storm for Montreal will be the strong winds on Monday. Expect tree damage and power outages here in southern Quebec.

Please note, when following weather on this site or any site for that matter, always verify the time the warnings were issued. Keep in mind, that for safety reasons, only Environment Canada or the National Weather Service stateside, have the authority to issue official weather warnings. Stay weather savvy my friends, and most importantly be safe.

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Potent pre-Halloween storm for southern Quebec & Ontario

AccuWeather.com
High impact weather event expected for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario Sunday and Monday.

Computer models continue to indicate that strong low pressure will impact our region starting late tonight through late Monday. In the meantime, we have the calm before the storm in Montreal, with a perfect late October day. The 2pm temperature at Trudeau Airport is 18C (65F), with abundant sunshine. Behind a potent cold front, Toronto sits at 7C (45F).

The aforementioned front will become the focus for very heavy rain on Sunday. As the front advances eastward, low pressure will develop along the east coast and ride northward along it towards Lake Champlain. This storm is expected to strengthen rapidly, producing a widespread, high impact weather event. Heavy rain will fall along and west of the storm track. At this time, the heaviest rain, up to 100mm (4 inches), is expected from Watertown and Kingston northeast towards Ottawa. Here in Montreal 40-60mm is likely. Another component of the storm will be strong winds. The winds will develop late Sunday from the southeast up to 60km/h, backing to the northwest Monday and increasing up to 100km/h. Winds of this strength can bring down trees and produce power outages.

With all the leaves on the ground and those likely to be stripped form the trees, urban flooding is a real concern. Expect travel delays across the entire region late Sunday and Monday. In New England and eastern Quebec, coastal flooding will also be a concern. The storm should move out of the region by early Tuesday. The weather will turn much colder behind the storm, with showers and perhaps a few flurries on Halloween day.

As of 3pm, a flood watch is in effect for the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley, along with a high wind watch. At this time, special weather statements are highlighting the storm on the Canadian side of the border. I expect official warnings will be issued at some point later today. I will update these as they happen.

Friday, October 27, 2017

Strong fall storm to impact southern Quebec

A strengthening coastal storm is forecast to bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern Quebec on Sunday and Monday. (AccuWeather.com)
Cooler weather has settled into southern Quebec to end the work week. As we head into the last weekend of October, big changes are on the horizon. Saturday will be partly cloudy and relatively mild, with daytime highs near 15C (59F). Late Saturday and early Sunday, low pressure will move east from the Great Lakes into Quebec, with showers. This is the same system that spread snow across the upper midwest, southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Montreal however will remain on the mild side of this system, with all liquid precipitation. On Sunday, a rapidly strengthening coastal storm will move northward from Florida to the Carolinas, and eventually into New England by early Monday. This storm has the potential to produce very heavy rain across the region, along with strong winds.

The heavy rain is expected to fall during a 12 to 18 hour period Sunday into early Monday, with between 50 and 100mm (2-4 inches) possible. In addition to the rain, gusty winds of up to 80km/h are possible as well. Some localized flooding is likely, along with the potential for power outages. A special weather statement has been issued by Environment Canada. This may be upgraded to a weather warning as the weekend progresses and the forecast becomes more certain.

The Halloween forecast looks cloudy and cold but thankfully dry.
Behind the storm, much colder air will be drawn south, with a chance for some flurries in the higher elevations by Halloween. The good news for trick or treaters is that the weather should improve by Tuesday. Conditions will be cloud but dry, it will however be much cooler, with daytime highs near 6C (43F).

Monday, October 23, 2017

Cooler fall weather forecast to return to Montreal

Much cooler, wet weather is on tap for Montreal as the week progresses. (AccuWeather)
The weather in Montreal this October has been nothing short of spectacular. To date, including Monday, Montreal has recorded 9 days where the temperature has been 21C (70F) or higher. Normally, we have none. The average high temperature between October 1 and 22 was 18.9C (66F), the long-term average for this period should be 13C (55F). The overnight lows have been mild as well, with an average low of 8.6C (48F). The normal low should be 4C (39F). Our peak temperature so far this month was 25.8C (79F). On Monday, the warm weather continued, with a high of 22C (72F) at Trudeau Airport, shy of the daily record of 25C (77F) set in 1979, and well above the normal of 11C (52F). St Anicet, southwest of Montreal, was the warmest location in Canada on Monday, reaching a record-breaking 25C (77F).

There are major changes in the near future. The high pressure responsible for the perfect weekend weather will move off the east coast tonight. In its wake, a low pressure area and cold front will slide across the Great Lakes into southern Quebec on Tuesday. A period of showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. The rain may be heavy at times, with 25mm (1 inch) expected in Montreal, but as much as 50mm (2 inches) southeast of the city towards Sherbrooke and the US border. Gusty southerly winds up to 60km/h are forecast to accompany the rain on Tuesday. The temperature will be mild once again, reaching 21C (70F) before the frontal passage. Once the front clears the area, cooler air will settle into southern Quebec. The weather will not be frigid, just closer to what is should be for late October. The forecast high on Thursday is expected to be 13C (55F). Temperatures will moderate slightly into the weekend, with the chance of showers, before even colder air arrives to start next week.

Halloween & Beyond
At this time, the Halloween forecast looks cloudy and cooler, but dry in Montreal, with a daytime high of 9C (48F). Expect trick or treating temperatures of around 5C (41F). Looking ahead to the first week of November, single digit daytime high temperatures are expected at this time, along with perhaps a few showers or even some snowflakes. Frost is likely on numerous nights to start November, as temperatures drop below normal for the first time in weeks.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Record breaking Prairie windstorm - more warm weather for Montreal

The first frost of the season occurred on L'Ile Perrot early Tuesday morning. Our weather will turn unseasonably warm once again as we head into the upcoming weekend. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Another period of warm and dry weather is expected across much of southern Ontario and Quebec this week. Temperatures will go above normal in Montreal on Wednesday and remain that way right through the upcoming weekend. The average high/low for mid-October in Montreal is 3C/12C. Temperatures will be well above this, with daytime highs approaching 21C (70F) by Saturday. Overnight lows during this period will be between 7C and 13C (45 to 55F). Coming after our first official frost, which occurred on Tuesday morning, this could be considered our Indian Summer. Big changes are on the horizon for Montreal, as a potent cold front and upper level low pressure area will begin impacting our weather early next week. Showers, strong winds and much colder temperatures are expected by the end of next week, into Halloween.

Above and below: Wind speeds of up to 131km/h in Moose Jaw, 119km/h in Regina and 113km/h in Saskatoon, generated widespread damage on the prairies. (CBC Photo)
Prairie Windstorm
A fast moving low pressure and cold front swept across Alberta and Saskatchewan on Tuesday creating hurricane force wind gusts. Winds in excess of 100km/h knocked down trees and power lines, fanned grass and brush fires and took down hundreds of trees. In Alberta, the highest wind reported was at Acadia Valley at 126km/h. Meanwhile a gust to 131km/h occurred at 10pm in Moose Jaw. This was the strongest wind ever recorded in that city, the previous record was 119km/h set on October 16, 1991. The wind caused widespread damage to several homes and businesses. SaskPower reported multiple outages across the province, impacting thousands of customers.

In southwest Saskatchewan, a rapidly moving grass fire forced the evacuation of Leader, Burstall and the RM of Deerfork. Residents were allowed to return home Tuesday evening. The windy weather was being blamed for the derailment of 28 rail cars, blown off the tracks near Huxley, Alberta. The wind also blew dust and debris across the Trans-Canada Highway, making travel extremely dangerous from Calgary to Regina. In addition to the wind, 13 new record high temperatures were established in Saskatchewan on Tuesday. The strong winds have now moved east into Manitoba.


Monday, October 16, 2017

From record warmth to frost

Wind damage to homes in Mount-Laurier, north of Montreal. (Photo from Jason Campbell via CBC)
This weather this October could very well give you whiplash. A frost advisory is out for Montreal, just 24 hours after record warmth in southern Quebec. The first widespread frost of the season is likely Monday night in Montreal, with overnight lows between 0C and -2C (29 to 32F). On Sunday, strong low pressure over the Great Lakes, combined with a potent cold front to produce very strong winds and record warmth. Saint-Anne-de-Bellevue reached 24.6C (76F), eclipsing the old record of 23.3C (73F) set in 2014. Saint Clothilde near the US border was 25.7C (78F), also breaking the 2014 record of 23.8C. The warm spot in the entire country was Saint Anicet at 25.9C (79F). This morning, most locations are between 3C and 5C (37 to 41F), quite a shock to the system.

A powerful cold front is responsible for the fresh arctic air. That front generated a squall line that produced damaging winds from central and southern Ontario into southern Quebec. The hardest hit region in Quebec was the lower Laurentians, where winds knocked out power to over 10,000 homes and produced structural damage. In Mont-Laurier, 4 homes were damaged, two severely. No injuries were reported. Numerous trees were down across roads as well. In Ontario, winds gusted to 96km/h in Ottawa, 102km/h in Toronto, and 104km/h in London. Widespread damage was reported to trees and power lines. In the Montreal region, the front was less intense, with a peak wind gust to 69km/h at Sherbrooke, 67km/h at St Hubert and 61km/h at Trudeau Airport. Scattered power outages were reported in metro Montreal, with the largest in Pincourt where nearly 1000 customers were in the dark.

Hurricane Ophelia has taken a very rare path into Ireland. (NHC)

Hurricane Ophelia
Once Category 3 Hurricane Ophelia, is moving across Ireland on Monday. Winds of 176km/h (109 mph) were already observed on the small island of Fastnet Rock off the Irish coast. Towering seas and torrential rains are accompanying the rare hurricane. Ophelia has set a record as the most eastern Category 3 storm on record, another sign of our changing climate. Hurricanes rarely move into this part of the Atlantic due to the colder water temperatures. Across Ireland, schools and businesses are closed, hundreds of flights cancelled in Dublin, and power is out to over 120,000 customers. The military has been placed on standby. Storm warnings are in effect across Ireland and Scotland as well as the northern United Kingdom.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Another warm fall weekend for Montreal - changes on the way

Montreal can expect another warm weekend before much cooler air returns on Monday. (AccuWeather)
The temperature was a little closer to normal this past week in Montreal. The weather actually felt like October. This morning, I recorded 3.3C (37F) on L'Ile Perrot for the morning low. Some locations away from the city even had a light frost the last few mornings, but not here in Montreal. The average date for our first frost is October 7. However, in recent years, this has been more like October 15. It looks like a pattern change is in store over the next week or so, but not before another warm weekend in southern Quebec.

Enjoy the warm temperatures and beautiful fall foliage in Montreal this weekend. Changes are coming!
Low pressure is expected to move from Colorado, across the Great Lakes and north of Montreal on Saturday. Along the path of the storm, heavy rain is expected. Here in southern Quebec, a warm front will produce scattered showers tonight and early Saturday, before gusty southerly winds arrive and warmer temperatures. The high on Saturday will be near 20C (68F), with 22C (73F) expected Sunday. The record high for Sunday of 26.1C set in 1954, is in reach, but with expected cloud cover, it is unlikely we will get there. A cold front arrives on Sunday with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Much cooler air arrives for next week, with the likelihood of our first widespread frost by Tuesday morning. Morning lows will be at or just below 0C (32F) by next Tuesday.

There is plenty of cold air gathering across far northern Canada. The temperature was -22C (-8F) this morning in Mould Bay, Nunavut. It is just a matter time before pockets of this begin to impact eastern Canada. Parts of the Prairies were well below freezing this morning as well, with Regina at -10C (14F). Temperature trends in Montreal have been well above normal since the start of September. However, look for a dramatic pattern change prior to Halloween in southern Quebec. At this time, it is looking like an early start to winter during November. Now is the time to start getting ready, while the weather is good.

Monday, October 09, 2017

Strong winds cut power to 37,000 Quebec homes

Hurricane Nate rapidly moved across the central Gulf Coast late Saturday and early Sunday, cutting power, flooding coastal regions and sinking boats. Nate will produce heavy rain in southern Ontario and Quebec Thanksgiving Monday. (The Weather Channel Photo)
A gusty cold front moved across southern Quebec on Sunday morning, producing winds of up to 82km/h at Trudeau Airport in Montreal. The wind pushed tree branches onto power lines, disrupting power to over 35,000 Quebec homes and businesses. Most were located off island to the north, but as many as 3000 were without power in Montreal. Here on L'Ile Perrot, power was restored by the noon hour. The weather remained windy for the balance of the day, gusting in excess of 50km/h. The front did little to lower the warm temperatures we have been experiencing. Our record warm fall continued on Sunday, with 16 new daily record highs established in the province. Montreal reached 25C (77F), just shy of the 25.6C record from 1970.

Hurricane Nate
Hurricane Nate made landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi early Sunday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. A storm surge of up to 10 feet impacted the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast, with flooding reported in many locations. The water receded rapidly, with the clean-up starting immediately. Wind gusts of up to 90mph, cut power to nearly 100,000 Gulf Coast residents. The surge left behind piles of debris and sand, but for the most part, damage appeared to be light. Flooding was reported at several coastal Casinos in Biloxi. Numerous boats were washed ashore or pushed into docks and pilings. Several tornadoes were also reported, especially across Alabama.

Nate has been a fast moving storm, travelling from Central America on Thursday to the Ohio Valley Monday morning. The storm has weakened to a post-tropical system early Monday, located near Akron, Ohio. Heavy rain is falling north and west of the center, with 25-50mm (1-2 inches) expected along the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley on Thanksgiving Monday. The rain will persist most of the day in Montreal, along with gusty northeast winds. Nate will move into Atlantic Canada tonight.

Saturday, October 07, 2017

Hurricane Nate heads for central Gulf Coast

Satellite image of hurricane Nate, located 345 miles south of the Gulf Coast early Saturday, October 7. (NOAA)
Hurricane Nate is rapidly moving towards the central Gulf Coast on Saturday morning, as a category 1 storm. Warnings and watches are in effect from western Florida to central Louisiana, including metro New Orleans. As of 4am Saturday morning, Nate has 80mph (130km/h) winds and is moving north at 22mph (35km/h). The center of the storm is 345 miles (550km) south, southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Some strengthening is forecast by the National Hurricane Center before Nate crosses the coast late tonight. The coastlines of Mississippi and Alabama are prone to storm surge flooding. A surge of up to 9 feet is forecast in those regions. Heavy rainfall is forecast along the path of Nate from the Gulf Coast into New England. A state of emergency has been declared in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana in advance of the storm. Precautions to protect life and property are being rushed to completion Saturday morning.

Once inland, Nate will weaken rapidly to a depression and move towards southern New England. Much needed rainfall from Nate is forecast across southern Quebec on Thanksgiving Monday, with perhaps as much as 25mm (1 inch) here in Montreal.

Hurricane Nate is already being blamed for 21 deaths across Central America from flooding and mudslides.

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

Warm in Montreal while snow blankets southern Alberta

Heavy snow and blowing snow closed down a portion of the Trans Canada Highway east of Calgary on Tuesday, October 4. (Global News Photo)
The southern Quebec weather remains nearly perfect for early October. Sunshine along with above normal temperatures has prevailed since Sunday. Strong high pressure has delivered us the perfect days, along with chilly nights and widely scattered frost. A cold front is forecast to approach the region on Wednesday, with gusty southwest winds up to 50km/h and near record high temperatures of 26C (79F) forecast for Montreal. We will come close to the record for October 4 of 26.7C set in 2005. The cold front will lead to increasing clouds, along with showers and thunderstorms. Skies should clear on Thursday, with temperatures just slightly cooler. The weekend at this time will be partly cloudy, with showers. Temperatures will warm again to well above normal, and possibly record breaking by Sunday and Monday. Looking ahead deeper into October, above normal temperatures and dry weather is expected through the middle of the month. Beyond that, cooler weather is expected, but nothing earth shattering.

Alberta Snowstorm
While we were enjoying our beautiful weather here in eastern Canada, winter settled into southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Strong low pressure developed over Montana on Monday, producing heavy rain and snow across the region, along with winds in excess of 100km/h. The storm pulled down cold air on the west side of the system, producing heavy snow in the Rockies and across the plains south and east of Calgary. A portion of the Trans Canada Highway east of Calgary towards Medicine Hat was closed due to blowing snow and mounting accidents. Shelters were opened to help stranded motorists.

An impressive wind gust of 117km/h was recorded at Patricia, Alberta, 87km/h at Strathmore and 80km/h at Calgary. Snow totals included 10-15cm in and around Calgary, 20 to 25cm at Coronation and 35cm in the Cypress Hills bordering Alberta and Saskatchewan. On the warmer side of the low pressure, heavy rain fell along with thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts included, 59.6mm at Lucky Lake, 34mm at Swift Current and 19mm in Regina. Heavy snow also fell in portions of northern Montana. Conditions will warm up a little this week, so most of the snow should melt.