Has spring arrived in Montreal?

Lac St. Louis remains locked in ice February 28, 2018. However, with above-normal temperatures during the last two weeks and more mild air expected for the next two weeks, the ice should begin to thin and break up soon. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Meteorological winter will come to an end today, February 28. In Montreal, it was an interesting winter, to say the least, but is it over? February started off cold and snowy, with expectations of that weather lasting the entire month and well into March. Mother Nature, however, had a different plan, with a large warm ridge of high pressure dominating eastern North America. A persistent western trough managed to keep the cold air locked in place across the Prairies, Alberta and B.C. For Montreal, the average high for February was -0.2C, well above the normal of -3.2C. The temperature was above the freezing mark on 15 of the 28 days. In the last two weeks, daytime highs have been anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees above normal on most days. The two factors keeping our highs lower than they may have reached were the 207cm of snow that fell on Montreal from December through early February and the frozen St. Lawrence River.

Is the warm weather here to stay?  The short answer: yes. Looking into our "crystal ball", no frigid air is expected for at least the next two weeks. At that point, being well into March, the angle of the sun is increasing, making it rather difficult for arctic air to become established.

Just how warm has it been overall this February? Well in Greenland, February high temperatures have been running well above normal. At Cape Morris Jessup, in the high Arctic region of northern Greenland, the temperature has been above freezing for 61 hours this winter. The Arctic winter runs October to March, with much of the region in complete darkness. The 61 hours establishes a new record, smashing the old record of 16 hours set in 2011. The warm weather included 24 consecutive hours above freezing on February 20th and a high of 6C (43F) on February 24. This shows us just how little cold air is available across eastern North America. These numbers should be a real concern to all of us. They are startling. While above-freezing winter temperatures do occur, on average, once a decade at this location, this is the second time in the last three years, and never for such an extended period. Arctic sea ice is melting faster than anyone expected.

With all of this information taken into account, and peeking at the models over the next few weeks, spring may have indeed arrived in Montreal. However, that does not rule out a quick-hitting storm or two. As we are all well aware, historically, the largest snowstorms in Montreal have occurred in March and even into the early part of April.

Messy weather weekend ahead for southern Quebec

Freezing rain warnings are in effect for Montreal, The St Lawrence and Ottawa Valleys through Friday night.

A freezing rain warning in effect for Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario through midnight Friday.

A period of very mild and wet weather is expected this weekend across southern Quebec. The warm air will remain in place next week, with temperatures expected to be well above normal. Montreal will remain on the warm side of two winter storms moving from Colorado towards the western Great Lakes over the weekend. The first system will spread clouds and light freezing rain into southern Quebec this afternoon. Freezing rain warnings are in effect for Montreal, but the precipitation should be fairly light. We can expect 2 to 5mm of freezing rain, changing to showers this evening as the temperature warms to 3C (38F) overnight.

Saturday will feature clearing skies and mild temperatures, with no precipitation expected. On Sunday, the stronger of the two storms will follow a similar path across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. With a forecast track well north and west of Montreal, warm air will dominate in our region once again. Snow mixed with freezing rain will begin Sunday afternoon, rapidly changing to rain late in the day. The temperature will become very mild on Sunday, reaching 6C (43F) by the evening hours. Skies will clear out on Monday, expect the mild weather to persist, with a high of 4C (39F).

Record warmth surges into eastern Canada

Freezing rain in Quebec City produced downed trees and widespread power outages. (Radio Canada)

Unseasonably warm temperatures for February surged into southern and eastern Ontario and Quebec over the last 24 hours. As per usual, the cold held on firm here in Montreal, taking at least 20 hours to scour out of the St. Lawrence Valley.  As locations to the south and west of Montreal warmed into the teens on Tuesday, Montreal remained just above the freezing point. At Trudeau Airport, the temperature stayed stuck between 0C and 1C (32-33F) for over 15 hours, and another 8 hours at 2C (36F). Finally on Wednesday morning, the temperature surged up to and over 10C (50F) in sections of the city.  The warm weather has generated dozens of record highs in Ontario and Quebec, including the national hotspot of 18.6C (66F) at Vineland, Ontario. In Quebec, Frelighsburg was 18.1C (65F), smashing the previous record high of 10.4C (51F) set in 1996. St Anicet, Quebec reached 10.7C (52F), with 10.2C (51F) at McGill in downtown Montreal, both records for the date.

Accompanying the warmth was heavy rainfall. I measured 22.2mm of rain on L'Ile Perrot from late Monday through Wednesday morning. Minor flooding was reported in Ontario, but little in Quebec so far. South of the border in upstate New York and Vermont, temperatures reached nearly 21C (70F). Rapid snowmelt combined with ice jams, produced flooding on several northern New England rivers.

Northeast of Montreal, the problem was freezing rain, with the mercury hovering just below the freezing point. Over 15mm of ice accumulation resulted in downed tree branches and power lines. Hydro Quebec reported over 122,000 subscribers in the dark, this included 107,000 in Quebec City alone.

A cold front moving across Ontario Wednesday afternoon, will bring more seasonable air back into the region. Montreal can expect a low of -7C (19F) tonight, with highs on Thursday remaining below freezing at -3C (27F). Mild air and showers will move back into southern Quebec this weekend.

Flood risk on the rise this week in southern Quebec

Heavy rain, record warmth and melting snow will increase the risk of flooding this week in southern Ontario and Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)

Near record breaking warmth is forecast this week across southern Ontario and Quebec. A large ridge of high pressure located off the southeast US coast, will pump unseasonably warm and humid air northward. A frontal boundary will become established along the northern periphery of the high pressure. Along this boundary, several waves of low pressure are expected to bring significant rainfall through late Wednesday. Conditions in Montreal will start off dry and mild on Monday, with daytime highs approaching 5C (41F). Clouds will thicken late in the day, along with rain developing by evening. Intermittent rain is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley through Wednesday evening, with 20 to 40mm (0.5-1.5 inches) possible. The combination of above freezing temperature, rapid snowmelt and potential ice jams, will increase the risk of flooding across the entire region. Widespread flood watches are in effect south of the border across New York and New England, with a special weather statement covering the flood risk here in southern Quebec.

As far as daytime high temperatures go, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the week, potentially challenging the record highs. We have a decent shot at the record set Tuesday in Montreal, which was 10C (50F) set in 1994. Wednesday and Thursday may be a little more difficult, with the current records dating back to a very warm February in 1981, at 13.9C (56F) and 15C (59F) respectively. The current forecast calls for highs of 8 to 12C (45F to 54F) both days. The overnight lows Monday through Wednesday should remain above freezing as well, near 5C (41F).

A cold front arrives late Wednesday, accompanied by flurries and cooler temperatures.

Mild weather returns to Quebec and Ontario

The warmer weather will help melt away some of the ice and snow that has accumulated over the last two weeks. (ValleyWeather)

A pattern change is well underway this week that will see mild weather to end the month of February across eastern North America. Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal values through next week. The only exception should be this Saturday, behind a cold front, when the high will be -7C (19F). Otherwise, look for temperatures at or above freezing. Thursday, a warm front will produce periods of drizzle in Montreal, with a mild high of 6C (43F). Rain is forecast to develop late Thursday along the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will remain above freezing into Friday morning. On Friday, the rain will eventually change to snow before ending. Little accumulation is expected at this time. The temperature will drop all day to overnight lows of -18C (0F) by Saturday morning. The weather this weekend will remain fair and dry.

The cold weather will be very brief in Montreal, with temperatures warming overnight Saturday into Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday, we can expect highs between 0C and 3C (32-38F). Depending on which commuter model output you prefer, the weather for the remainder of next week will either be very warm and wet, or mild with mixed precipitation. The details still need to be fine-tuned, but one thing is certain, the weather will be warmer than the long-term average for late February.

Another round of snow expected in Montreal

A major accident south of Montreal Wednesday, claimed the life of a 70 year old motorist. Excessive speed in very poor road conditions caused this wreck and many more. (CBC Photo)

After the little storm that could crossed the region on Wednesday, February 7, Montreal has now accumulated over 185cm of snow this season. Huge mountains of the white nuisance are everywhere, as municipalities struggle to find new locations to dump it. More is on the way this weekend.

The driver of this transport was very lucky Wednesday evening, surviving a plunge off the Route 342 overpass at Highway 30 in Vaudreuil/ Dorion. (neomedia.com Photo)

Taking a look back at this weeks storm, 15cm fell at Trudeau Airport, with 20cm from L'Ile Perrot across the South Shore towards the US border. In the Eastern Townships, Cowansville measured 35cm. The track of the system actually introduced heavier snow into southern Quebec than previously expected, at least by Environment Canada. The overall amounts in southern Quebec were poorly forecast, and warnings issued very late. The storm generated terrible road conditions. There were numerous major accidents, snarling traffic in the city and especially to the south. Highway 20 was closed in both directions near Mont-Saint-Hilaire after a fatal 50-vehicle pileup. Provincial Police were forced to close both Highway 30 on the South Shore near St Constant, and Highway 10 towards Sherbrooke for lengthy periods. My 45-minute commute home Wednesday evening took 2.5 hours to complete. Highway 40 towards Vaudreuil was blocked for over one hour by multiple collisions, forcing traffic onto alternate routes, clogging them.

After the brief break on Friday, the weather will become unsettled again in Ontario and Quebec. Snow is expected from late Friday evening through Sunday night. The precipitation will not come from one major system, but rather weak impulses of energy riding along a frontal boundary draped just south of Montreal. The snow will be light most of the time, but we are still expecting 10 to 15cm by Sunday evening. There may even be some freezing drizzle sprinkled in for good measure. The temperatures will be rather mild this weekend, around -4C (25F) both Saturday and Sunday, with a low of -8C (18F) both nights.

Montreal on northern edge of quick moving winter storm

We are running out of places to pile the snow. A quick moving winter storm will give Montreal another 10 to 15cm of snow on Wednesday.

Southern Quebec and Ontario will be on the northern edge of a winter storm, quickly moving form the lower Mississippi Valley to southern New England on Wednesday. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight in Montreal, with chilly overnight lows of  -13C (9F). Clouds will increase early Wednesday morning, followed by snow, moving from southwest to northeast through the midday. The snow could become heavy at times from Montreal south into New York and Vermont. Precipitation should taper of to a few flurries by midnight. The temperature will be cold throughout the snowfall, with a daytime high near -8C (18F) in Montreal. Total storm accumulations will be in the order of 10cm from Montreal north and west towards the Ottawa Valley. Along and south of the St. Lawrence River, 10 to 15cm is likely from Cornwall towards the south shore of Montreal. Across the Eastern Townships and south into New England and New York, 15-30cm is forecast. Winter storm warnings are in place from Sherbrooke south into the US. In the St Lawrence Valley of New York, a winter weather advisory is in effect. No warnings are in effect at this time for Montreal.

Regardless of the weather warnings, steady snow, along with gusty northeast winds between 20 and 40 km/h, will make travel poor during the afternoon commute in Montreal. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour are possible, especially south and east of Montreal. Expect icy, snow covered roads and reduced visibility.

Active weather week ahead - more snow for Montreal

The last remains of yesterday's cloud cover and snow slip south of Montreal early this morning, leaving behind bright sunshine. The temperature fell quickly after skies cleared, along with strong northwest winds and blowing snow. (Valley Weather Photo)

More snow is forecast this week, as an active and unsettled weather pattern remains in place. On Sunday, rather weak low pressure managed to produce 10 to 20cm of fresh snow across portions of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. In Montreal, 13.2cm of snow fell, bringing the seasonal total to 167cm. This amount already represents 80 percent of the normal snowfall for the entire season (209.5cm). The city of Montreal will start removing the snow from borough streets tonight, the sixth cleanup this season. The municipality had budgeted for five. We still have the thick of the snowfall season to go, as most of Montreal's historically big snowstorms have occurred in February and especially March.

We will start adding to this total as early as Wednesday. A developing storm system will move along the edge of our current arctic airmass, passing across Pennsylvania and extreme southern New England. A broad area of snow will occur north and west of the storm track from southern New England into Southern Quebec by Wednesday afternoon. Montreal will likely remain on the northern edge of this storm, with 10 to 15cm likely for the city. As you head south and east, amounts will increase to between 15 and 25cm from the Eastern Townships into northern Vermont and New York. A winter storm watch has been posted for a wide swath of New England and the Northeast US. Weather warnings may be required for a portion of southern Quebec as well.

The temperature will be cold with the storm, likely remaining in the -10C (14F) range on Wednesday across southern Quebec.  Expect the steadiest snow in Montreal between noon and midnight. Skies should slowly clear by Thursday morning. By the weekend, another area of low pressure will bring more snow to Ontario and Quebec. This system bears watching at this time.

The Blizzard of ‘78 - still the benchmark storm after 40 years

A National Guard troop inspects a storm ravaged car in coastal Massachusetts in February 1978. (AP)

Every city has a meteorological benchmark that helps establish where current and future winter storms sit in history. For Montreal, it has always been the Blizzard of ‘71 for snowstorms. While other storms have come close, none have equaled March 3 to 5, 1971.

For Boston and southern coastal New England, that benchmark storm is February 5 to 7, 1978. The ‘70s had some historically wicked winter storms, including one that swept across Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and southwest Ontario in January 1978. That storm established new records for lowest barometric pressure for a landlocked storm. However, just one week later, Mother Nature unleashed an even bigger storm on the US. The blizzard of ‘78 started innocently enough in Boston on the morning of February 6, 1978, as low pressure slowly developed east of Virginia in the Atlantic Ocean. The system would have been just another Nor¹Easter had it not been slowed by strong arctic high pressure over eastern Canada. The high pressure resulted in the storm becoming nearly stationary for over 36 hours east of Cape Cod.

Thousands of cars were abandoned for days. This is US Route 128 in Needham, Massachusetts.

The snow started very lightly early Monday morning, luring most residents of Boston into a false sense of relief. As a result, schools and businesses remained open despite the predictions for heavier snow. By the time businesses and schools were let out in the early afternoon, the storm was a full-fledged blizzard. Thousands of motorists were sent out into the teeth of the storm, quickly becoming trapped on snow-clogged area highways. Many were rescued by cross country skiers and snowmobiles, others remained in their cars for days. It took the authorities, including National Guard troops, nearly a week to clear the roads of abandoned cars. The snow and wind had a tremendous economic impact, closing down the region for over a week. The death toll from the storm was 100, fourteen of which occurred from motorists trapped in their cars. As the system inched its way along the coast, wave after wave of heavy snow fell across southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Boston and its suburbs were the hardest hit, along with coastal New Hampshire. A record 27 inches (69cm) of snow fell on Boston, with 27.6 inches in Providence.

Total dedication! (Boston Herald Photo)

The most devastating impact of the storm was from the powerful hurricane force winds that accompanied the blizzard. The wind not only created zero visibility, but also pounded the coast with a relentless storm surge. Successive high tides created widespread destruction along the New England coast. Over 11,000 homes were damaged or destroyed during the storm. A peak wind gust of 100mph (160km/h) was observed on Plum Island, Massachusetts. Coastal flooding also occurred in New Hampshire and Maine. The final tally surpassed $500 million in damages from the Blizzard of '78.

On a side-note, the power of the storm was felt as far as Montreal. On February 6, 1978, Montreal measured winds of 76km/h, accompanied by 7cm of snow.