Monday, November 26, 2018

Conveyor belt of storms continues for Montreal

Twin storm systems will bring plenty of wet snow and rain to southern Quebec and Ontario during most of the upcoming week. (AccuWeather.com)
The next in a series of early winter storms is expected to impact southern Quebec beginning later this afternoon. The storm system is currently moving from the Midwest US towards Buffalo, New York by late today. The low pressure area was responsible for blizzard conditions across portions of the central plains and Midwest on Sunday. Over a foot of snow (30cm) fell in some locations, with winds gusting to 55mph (90km/h).

Precipitation is forecast to spread across Ontario into Quebec by this afternoon, with rain forecast at the onset. As slightly cooler air wraps into the storm, precipitation should change to wet snow this evening. The snow will be enhanced by the development of a second storm along the US eastern seaboard near New York City. Both lows will meander around New England through Thursday, with varying amounts of snow and rain. Winter storm warnings have been issued south of the border, with special weather statements in Ontario and Quebec. Warnings may be needed later today as the forecast becomes more clear.

As far as snowfall accumulation are concerned, amounts will be highly variable, dependent on elevation. Montreal can expect a very wet 10 to 15cm of snow through late Tuesday, mixing at times with rain. Upper elevations to the southeast of the city, in the Townships and northern New England, may receive more than 30cm. Winds will become rather strong out of the northeast up to 60km/h through Tuesday. The combination of heavy wet snow and gusty winds will create poor travel conditions along with the chance for isolated power outages. Snow is also forecast in Ontario, with 5cm along the St. Lawrence Valley, up to as much as 20cm along the Ottawa Valley and points west towards Georgian Bay.

High pressure will finally clear skies out by late Thursday. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the week, with highs of 0C to plus 2C and overnight lows of  -1C to -3C

Saturday, November 24, 2018

Milder weather brings freezing rain threat to Montreal

An icy Thursday morning sunrise in Verdun. Multiple low temperature records were established this past week in Montreal, including the -18C (0F) recorded early Thursday morning. Warmer air is on the way this weekend and into next week, unfortunately so is the ice, rain and wet snow. (Photo Megan Branton)
Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, including Ottawa and Montreal.

After the record-breaking arctic chill of this past week, warmer air will be streaming into southern Quebec over the next 24 hours. Unfortunately the warmth will come with clouds and more precipitation. Low pressure is moving from the central US plains into the Great Lakes later today. A warm front will approach Montreal this evening. With plenty of deep, cold air available at the surface, freezing rain is likely to develop across eastern Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley, beginning late this afternoon, and persisting through midnight. Temperatures will be very slow to warm up, as the cold dense air is very difficult to move out of the valley. Additionally, pavement temperatures will remain cold, even after the air temperature has warmed above freezing.

Montreal can expect 5 to 10mm of ice accretion this evening into the overnight. As much as 15mm may accumulate north of city into Laval and the lower Laurentians. Freezing rain is also expected in the Ottawa Valley and along Highway 401 towards Kingston. Icy weather is also occur southward into northern New York and Vermont. If you have travel plans this evening, anticipate widespread icy road surfaces. Travel conditions will improve early Sunday, as most locations rise above the freezing point. The high Sunday will be plus 3C in Montreal, with showers expected.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Record breaking cold forecast for Montreal through Friday

The drive off L'Ile Perrot took over 40 minutes longer than normal on both Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Snow has fallen during the morning rush hour for the last 4 days in Montreal. The snow created numerous accidents and multi-hour commute times. Bitter cold will now arrive to end the work week. (ValleyWeather Photo)
An arctic cold front will be crossing the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon, accompanied by gusty snow squalls and biting cold. Wednesday morning was just another in a string of brutal commutes in Montreal. Heavy snow falling between 6 and 9am, created terrible road conditions, with numerous accidents reported. Travel was brought to a standstill in metro Montreal for the second consecutive morning. I gave up and took the bus from Vaudreuil, the first time in over 20 years.

Record cold is forecast to arrive late Wednesday, with an overnight low of -15C (5F) expected for Montreal. The record is -14.4C (6F) set in 1987. Thursday will likely break records as well, for both high and low temperatures. The record low for Thursday is -14.4C set in 1972.

The cold air will be accompanied by another burst of heavy snow and squalls across southern Quebec and Ontario. Winds are forecast to gust up to 60km/h through Thursday, creating dangerous windchill values and producing blowing snow. The forecast high Thursday, under partly cloudy skies, is -7C (19F), 15 degrees below normal for late November. Temperatures will moderate into the weekend, but with the renewed threat of more precipitation, this time in the form of rain or freezing rain. More on that later.

Friday, November 16, 2018

East coast snowstorm brushes Montreal

Piling up the overnight snow along Cote Vertu in Saint Laurent Friday morning. (ValleyWeather)
A potent early season storm moving along the eastern seaboard has produced widespread snow across the St. Lawrence Valley overnight. Snowfall warnings remain in effect for Montreal, but should be dropped later this morning. As of 6am, I had measured 9cm on L'Ile Perrot, with 6cm reported at Trudeau Airport. Around southern Quebec, amounts vary from 20cm along the US border to less than 5cm north of Montreal. South of the border across northern New England, heavier snow has produced amounts between 20 and 30cm. Temperatures remain mild, and winds have been fairly light in Montreal.

Roads on my drive from Vaudreuil to St Laurent were snow covered but manageable. One thing I did notice was the failure for drivers to adapt to the road conditions. Speeds were way to high for the conditions. While there were a rash of minor accidents across southern Quebec, traffic is traditionally lighter on Fridays, so travel was slow but steady. The Ontario Provincial Police were reporting numerous accidents on Highway 401 between Kingston and the Quebec Border. Roads there are snow covered and slippery. South and east or Montreal, the snow is heavier, visibility is poor and roads are snow covered towards Sherbrooke and the Vermont border. Anywhere you travel today will be slow, so caution is advised.

The snow will be fairly light in Montreal for the balance of the day, with another 5cm possible. The high will be near -3C. Overnight tonight, expect more flurries with steady temperatures. Saturday will be mild, with a high near 2C. A potent cold front will arrive late Saturday, accompanied by some light snow and much colder temperatures. Next week will be cold in Montreal, with well below normal temperatures forecast.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

First widespread snowstorm on the horizon for Montreal

Many regions outside of Montreal, across Quebec, Ontario and New England, awoke to snow on Tuesday morning. (NHDOT Photo)
Brutal cold will great those heading out in Montreal today, with the 7am temperature at Trudeau Airport of -11C (12F), and a windchill of -20C (-4F). St Agathe north of Montreal was -16C (4F) this morning. The unseasonable cold will prevail through the end of the week, and will be joined by the first widespread snowstorm of the season for southern Quebec.

On Tuesday, many regions outside Montreal recorded the first snow of the season, with 5 to 15cm falling mainly north and west of the city, including Laval. Here on L'Ile Perrot and at Trudeau Airport, it was mainly a rain event, with just a few wet flurries mixed in. A strong cold front crossed the region late Tuesday, ushering in our current polar air mass. The low this morning in Montreal is just 1 degree shy of the record of -11.7C set in 1971. If we fail to reach -6C today, it will be the coldest November 14 since 1905, when the high was only -6.1C (21F). The cold is being accompanied by stiff northwest winds of 30-50km/h in Montreal, producing dangerous windchill values for November.

Montreal can expect the first snowstorm of the season Friday, with 10-15cm likely falling across southern Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)
Friday Snowstorm
High pressure will dominate the weather through Thursday, with cold temperatures and partly cloudy skies. Daytime highs will struggle to reach -5C (23F), with a morning low Thursday of -11C (12F). Overnight Thursday, low pressure is expected to develop off the middle Atlantic coast and move northeast towards southern New England. Precipitation should overspread southern Quebec by Friday morning, with snow expected. The snow will be light but steady on Friday, with early estimates of 10 to 15cm for metro Montreal. I expect this will be all snow with no mixing forecast in Montreal, with temperatures remaining below freezing for the event. Widespread snow is also forecast for eastern Ontario, though with lesser amounts of 5 to 10cm expected. Snow will also fall south and east of Montreal across the Townships and northern New England. Travel will be very poor on Friday.

The low is forecast to deepen and move into Nova Scotia late Friday. Behind the storm, more cold air is forecast in Quebec and Ontario, prevailing into next week, with additional chance for more snow.

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Pattern change will result in snow & cold for Montreal

The first major snowfall of the season is forecast for many locations across southern Quebec on Friday. Montreal will have a mix of snow and rain with this system. A more significant storm is expected to develop by next Tuesday, with perhaps the first snowstorm of the season for Montreal.
A sharp pattern change is expected this weekend, with cold air pouring into southern Quebec and Ontario behind the next storm. Two areas of low pressure will affect the region Friday and Saturday, with a rain/snow mix forecast in Montreal. Thursday will be the last mild day for the foreseeable future, with a mix of cloud and sun, and a high of 7C (45F).

On Friday, clouds will thicken as low pressure approaches the region form the Great Lakes. A second low is forecast to move through New England, with a decent fetch of moisture pushing north over southern Quebec. Rain will develop late in the day, mixing with snow Friday night. Most of the St. Lawrence Valley can expect a cold rain from this system, but the upper elevations of the Laurentians and Townships may be looking at accumulating snow by Saturday morning. North of Montreal, the cold air will arrive sooner, with 15 to 20cm of snow possible. Gusty winds are also expected with this storm, 50-70km/h. Behind the low pressure, cold air will pour across the Great Lakes, with the first lake effect snowstorm forecast in Ontario and portions of western New York.

Prepare for winter driving if you have travel plans north or west of Montreal this weekend. Also now is the time to install those winter tires.

High pressure will then nudge into our region on Sunday, with the coldest airmass of the season expected so far. The high on Sunday will be at the freezing point, with overnight lows dropping to -6C (21F). The cold weather is expected to persist next week, with mid-December temperatures forecast.

First snowstorm for Montreal?
Another major storm is expected to develop along the US east coast by late Monday, possibly impacting Quebec with another snowstorm next week. This system may bring Montreal our first significant snowfall of the season. Some models are hinting at more than 15cm of snow in the city. There are still many forecast details to work out, as is common with Nor'Easters.

Friday, November 02, 2018

November - the cloudiest month of the year in Montreal

Deepening low pressure will move along the eastern seaboard into Atlantic Canada over the next 24 hours. Windy, rainy and cool weather can be expected in Montreal. (AccuWeather)
November may only be two days old, but already the month is living up to its reputation as the cloudiest in Montreal. On average the city has about 85 hours of sunshine in November, nearly half of that recorded in October, so it is a drastic drop. December does not have a whole lot more, but the colder weather is often accompanied by sunshine. Much of the dreary weather in November can be attributed to the shorter days as we head towards the winter solstice, but it is also a very stormy month. Winter weather patterns typically begin to win over those of the summer.

Looking back at October, it was a cold month across most of southern Quebec, the coldest since 1993. The average temperature was 6.8C (44.3F), 1.7C below normal. In terms of precipitation, we managed 75mm of rain along, with 3cm of snow of Trudeau Airport. Closer to home, I measured 76.2mm on L'Ile Perrot, with an average temperature also of 6.8C.

November has started off rather stormy, with a frontal boundary draped to our south, tapping into plenty of moisture. Low pressure is riding along the front Friday, while strengthening. Rain has been falling in Montreal since late Thursday night, and it is expected to continue well into Saturday. A gusty northeast wind has kept temperatures in the 3 to 5C range. The raw, dreary conditions will persist into Saturday with little movement in the temperature. The wind will actually increase Saturday as the low deepens and moves into Atlantic Canada. Gusts could reach in excess of 70km/h during the afternoon and evening hours. There is even the chance of some wet snow mixing in with the rain from Montreal west towards the Ottawa Valley on Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be around 25mm for Montreal, with 50 to 80mm expected across Atlantic Canada.

High pressure will finally move into southern Quebec on Sunday, with some brief sunshine. The temperature will remain below normal, with a high of 5C (41F). Enjoy the one day break from the rain, because yet another storm system arrives early next week with more clouds and precipitation, but milder temperatures.