Spring off to a slow start in Montreal

The snow is slowly melting in Montreal and across southern Quebec. Despite objections to the cold start to spring, this weather pattern has actually reduced the flood threat for the moment.

Colder than normal weather continues to dominate the landscape across southern Quebec and parts of Ontario, despite some warmth and sunshine this past week. The melting process has been very slow at best, which in the long run, will help with flooding concerns. For most people however, the continued cool weather and lack of sunshine has resulted in a rather depressing start to spring.

There has been plenty of warm air across North America, just not in Quebec or eastern Ontario. In Montreal, our average temperature for the month of March currently sits at -3.7C (25F), almost 2 degrees below the normal of -2C (29F). Our warmest temperature this month was only 9.9C (49F). Cold temperatures have been common during the overnight period, with an average low of -7.8C (18F), and an extreme low of -18.9C (-2F). It has been a windy, damp month with almost 30.4mm of rainfall. Snowfall has thankfully been below normal, with only 19.6cm falling at Trudeau Airport, 16cm of that on March 10th alone.

Weekend Storm

Temperatures will start to slowly warm up during the first week of April, but not before we get another messy storm this weekend. A cold front will sink south across southern Quebec late Thursday and then stall over northern New England. Several waves of low pressure will move along the front Saturday and Sunday, with precipitation developing over Ontario and moving into Quebec. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain, but there is a good chance for wet snow across the higher elevation of eastern Ontario and especially north of Montreal. On Sunday, even Montreal may see a a few hours of wet snow. Rainfall amounts will be in the 15 to 25mm range, along with a couple of centimetres of snow. It is possible that some locations north of the city, may see in excess of 10cm of wet snow.

The dividing line between rain and snow will be very close to Montreal late Saturday, depending on where the aforementioned front settles. This forecast is subject to change depending on the final track of the storm. 

Friday will be quite mild in Montreal, around 8C (47F). The weather will be much colder this weekend, with thick clouds and rain or snow keeping temperatures down around 2C (36F). Skies should clear early Monday, with an extended period of sunshine forecast next week, and high temperatures warming to near 10C (50F) to start April.

Spring snowstorm to impact southern Quebec

A late winter storm will produce heavy wet snow starting Friday afternoon over much of northern New England and southern Quebec. Some locations may see in excess of 30cm. Montreal is looking at a rain/snow mix, with 5cm to as much as 15cm locally. (AccuWeather.com)

Spring arrived at 5:58 pm on Wednesday afternoon, accompanied by bright sunshine and mild temperatures in the 7C to 10C (45 to 50F) range. It was a perfect day, but it is also March in Montreal. The month is full of surprises, and one will be delivered over the next 48 hours.

Coastal Storm
A frontal system advancing over the region Thursday, will produce clouds and scattered rain showers along with mild temperatures. Highs will be around 5C (41F) in Montreal. Low pressure currently developing over the Carolina's, is forecast to strengthen into a potent coastal storm, while moving towards New York City on Friday. This storm will move into Maine and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

A wide swath of precipitation is expected across New England, southern Quebec and extreme eastern Ontario. Rain will develop late tonight or early Friday, and gradually change to wet snow from west to east on Friday afternoon. The snow may become heavy at times, especially across higher elevations. Snowfall accumulations will be highly dependent on when your community transitions from rain to snow, as well as elevation. At this time, 5 to 10cm is likely from Ottawa towards Montreal, with up to 30cm across the Townships and Quebec City region. The potential does exist for more snow in Montreal, depending on how quickly the region cools down on Friday. A winter storm watch has been posted for the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley, and warnings may be extended northward.

Winds will become quite strong as well late Friday, shifting from northeast to north and gusting over 50km/h. Some blowing snow is possible, especially off island towards the east and northeast. Travel will become difficult late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The high on Friday in Montreal will be around 4C (39F) very early in the day, dropping below freezing by afternoon.

Conditions will improve on Saturday, with clearing skies and mild highs near 3C (38F). Sunday will be fair and mild as well, before a strong cold front arrives late in the day. That front will produce flurries, with much colder weather to start next week. Remember, it is still March in Montreal!

Significant melting expected in Montreal

Warm weather to end the week will produce rapid melting of the snowpack in Montreal.

A powerful storm is slicing through the central portion of the US today on its way into Ontario after pounding the Rockies and plains with an intense blizzard. This storm was a beast, one of the strongest in years and certainly the most powerful this season. Along with heavy snow, strong thunderstorms and tornadoes, fierce winds occurred, in some cases gusting over 175km/h. Denver reported widespread blizzard conditions, with winds in excess of 125km/h. Thousands of flights were cancelled across the US, numerous highways closed and power out to over 200,000 residents across the region.

A fierce blizzard hit Denver, parts of the Rockies and the southern plains on Wednesday, quickly closing highways and stranding motorists. That same storm will bring warm, showery weather to Montreal and southern Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)

So what does this storm have to do with our weather here in Montreal? The broad circulation of the storm will push warm air across southern Ontario and Quebec over the next 48 hours. Temperatures will surge up to the warmest readings of the year so far, close to 10C (50F) on Friday. Accompanying the warm air will be gusty winds and some showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm in places. The warmth will begin to melt some of the deep snow and ice we have around the city. That, combined with any precipitation, will help to increase water levels on area rivers and lakes. This will likely result in the ice breaking up in many spots. It is time to stay off the ice and away from swift flowing water.

Some areas may also see flooding, caused specifically by snowmelt. While no weather warnings or advisories are in place at this time in southern Quebec, a flood watch has been posted for northern New York and Vermont. There is a concern for ice jam flooding along some smaller rivers and streams. The same conditions prompting that watch stateside, will exist here across the border in southern Quebec.

Cooler air will arrive this weekend behind a cold front, with a few flurries expected Saturday and daytime highs near 2C (36F). St. Patrick's Day Sunday will be sunny, but breezy and cooler, with a high of -3C (27F) for the parade in Montreal.

Mild weather finally on the way for Montreal

The weather this week has felt more like mid-January than March, with well below normal temperatures, strong winds, and occasional snow squalls. While only 1cm of snow has been reported at Trudeau Airport so far this month, several centimetres quickly fell last evening in Vaudreuil-Dorion. I took the photo above at 10pm Tuesday evening, adjacent to Highway 40 in Vaudreuil.

It has been a very cold week across southern Quebec, with high temperatures running well below the normal of 0C (32F). As of 3pm Wednesday afternoon, Montreal was reporting a cold -9C (16F). The overnight low tonight could reach -18C (0F). This cold weather will persist through the end of the work week, along with a few scattered flurries from time to time.

On Tuesday, numerous snow squalls moved northeast off of Lake Ontario and down the St. Lawrence Valley. The squalls produced areas of heavy snow and blowing snow along Highway 401 between Trenton and Cornwall. Dangerous travel conditions were reported. Last evening, what was left of the squalls, produced a 15 minute heavy burst of snow across Vaudreuil-Dorion and parts of the far western island around 10pm.

We can expect milder air to arrive this weekend, as low pressure develops over the southern plains and moves towards the Great Lakes. The system is forecast to pass west of Montreal on Sunday, with mixed precipitation expected across the region. A decent amount of moisture will accompany the storm, but the exact type and location of the heaviest precipitation is yet to be determined. I am thinking 5 to 10cm of snow for Montreal, before precipitation changes to rain. But those numbers may be adjusted up or down depending on the exact storm track. The good news is that the mild air that arrives with this storm, will stick around into next week. High temperatures will rise above freezing Sunday, with daytime highs remaining above freezing all next week.

Welcome to meteorological spring

March can be a very warm month, or a cruel reminder that it is still winter for a few more weeks. History has shown us here in Montreal, that our biggest storms of the year can occur, including the Storm of the Century, shown above, from March 3-5, 1971. You can read more about the 71 storm HERE.  (Meteo Media Photo)

It may not feel like spring, but the sun is getting brighter and the days are getting longer. From a weather standpoint, we are entering the spring season, although the calendar does not catch up for a few weeks. Unfortunately this year, the weather won't catch up either. We are in the middle of a cold snap that should prevail well into next week. Temperatures across southern Quebec have been well below the normal high/low for early March of -1C (30F) and -10C (14F) respectively.

March will come in lion like across parts of New England, but Montreal should remain on the northern edge of both storms this weekend. Expect only light snow, with perhaps 2 to 7cm total accumulation.

Before moving forward I will take a quick look back at the month of February, a month that was cold, but certainly not record breaking. The daily average high was -3.9C (24.9F), with an average low of -13.1C (8.4F). Those numbers are just slightly below normal, with the low being nudged down a little by our current cold spell. Montreal received 65.6cm of snow, powered by the 40cm snowstorm on the 12th. Normal February snow is 41.2cm. We managed 7 days above freezing, including a high of 6.4C on the 8th. An additional 24.4mm of rain fell in Montreal during February, that combined with the frequent freeze and thaw cycles, have left many parts of the city covered in a thick layer of ice.

As we look forward to March, we can expect a very cold start to the first month of spring. Temperatures are forecast to be well below normal through the first two weeks. After that we will see a pronounced pattern change, with above normal temperatures expected after the middle of the month.

In the short-term, two separate storm systems are expected to pass well south of Montreal, Saturday and again late Sunday. While a moderate snowfall is forecast across New England, Montreal should remain on the northern edge of both storms. Light snow will spread into southern Quebec on Saturday, accumulating 2 to 5cm along the St. Lawrence Valley. A stronger storm late Sunday will produce another 2 to 5cm as it moves along the New England coast. The morning commute Monday in Montreal may be a little tricky, but we are not expecting a big storm at this time.