A quiet end to a warm January in Montreal

The Niagara region during the epic Blizzard of 1977. This week marks the 43rd anniversary of that storm, back when winter had bite. In stark contrast, Montreal is about to finish one of the warmest Januaries on record.

High pressure is cresting over southern Quebec on Thursday, with clear and seasonable weather expected for Montreal. January 2020 is just about done, and it was a warm one to say the least. The average temperature through January 29, was -5.5C (22.1F), well above the normal of -9.7C (14.5F). We have recorded 13 days above the freezing point, remarkable for Montreal in January, and nearly double the long-term average. Officially at Trudeau Airport, there were no overnight lows below -20C (-4F). The long-term average from 1981-2010 is 7.6 days.

Our weekend storm is no more. The low in question will travel well offshore, sparing southern Quebec. A decent storm is likely in Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland. A western system may bring a dusting of snow to Ontario and Quebec on Sunday. (AccuWeather.com)

As far as precipitation is concerned, snowfall was relatively normal, with 50 to 60cm falling across metro Montreal, the normal is 49.5cm. The snow was scattered in nature, with no real large snowstorms. Rainfall was well above the normal of 27.3mm, with 50.0mm falling. The record-breaking rainstorm of January 11 was responsible for 44mm of that total. The mild weather has stretched across most of eastern Canada and the US. The Great Lakes are nearly ice-free, with only 6.6% of the surface frozen. Lake Erie and Ontario are virtually ice-free, with less than 2% coverage. The St. Lawrence River has very little ice as well, and what there is, is thin and dangerous.

Looking ahead to February, more of the same can be expected to start the month at least. Temperatures will be above normal, with just a slight chance for some flurries Saturday and late Sunday. No major storms are on the horizon at this time. The coastal low we were anticipating may affect Montreal earlier in the week, will remain offshore, impacting Atlantic Canada.

As the sun begins to strengthen in February and the days get longer, winter begins the epic battle to hold off spring. There is still plenty of winter to go, with February and March historically producing our biggest storms in Montreal. There are indications that the February will eventually turn colder, but that was the same scenario we were looking at for January, and it never materialized. Let's see what the groundhog has to say this Sunday, he may have better luck than me!

Complicated weekend storm for Montreal and Ottawa

Another weekend, another messy winter storm for southern Quebec. A special weather statement is in effect for Montreal, for a mix of rain, wet snow and freezing rain through Sunday.

This has not been an easy winter to predict for both professional and amateur meteorologists alike. For instance, I was convinced that once January turned colder, that frigid air was with us well into February. Now here we sit Friday afternoon with the temperature at 1C (34F), the third consecutive day above freezing. It seems that cold air this winter has been fleeting at best, the bulk of the arctic air trapped across northern Canada, with just an intrusion or two into the western provinces.

For this reason, the storm systems have been extremely challenging to forecast, especially the precipitation type. This weekends winter storm is no different. Right up to this mornings computer model runs, the various forecast scenarios have been all over the place, this with less than 24 hours to go before the storms arrival. So here goes my best effort at breaking down the weekend weather.

Precipitation should change to snow late Saturday, with 10cm expected in metro Montreal by Sunday morning. (AccuWeather.com)

A complex area of low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes and just south of Montreal on Sunday, while a second low develops off the southern New England coast. Clouds will increase early Saturday morning, followed by some scattered light rain or freezing rain into the early evening hours. Temperatures will be marginal at best for frozen precipitation in Montreal, with the mercury close to 2C (36F). Overnight Saturday into Sunday, slightly colder air should be pulled into the region, with precipitation becoming predominately snow for Montreal and points north and west including Ottawa. Precipitation may remain liquid south of Montreal. On Sunday, look for a mix or wet snow and perhaps some rain. If the precipitation remains as snow, most areas will receive between 10 and 20cm. Any region that mixes in with rain or freezing rain, will see less accumulation.

The temperatures will remain either side of 0C (32F), from late Saturday into Sunday. By no means is this forecast set in stone. I expect we will see fluctuations in the type and quantity of precipitation forecast. A change in the temperature of a degree or two either way, or any alteration in the storms track, will result in very different weather here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Skies will clear out on Monday, with temperatures remaining above normal.

Historic Newfoundland blizzard was meteorologically epic

A typical scene in St. John's, Newfoundland after a fierce coastal storm dumped 76.2cm of snow in 24 hours on the city. (CBC)

By now most of you are aware of the monster storm that hammered eastern Newfoundland on Friday and Saturday. The powerful ocean storm drew off the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, while Arctic air fuelled the system from the northwest. The storm had humble beginnings, bringing 5 to 10cm of snow to parts of Ontario and Quebec last Wednesday, before moving off the Maine coast on Thursday. It then blossomed into a major Atlantic winter storm, a white hurricane if you will, deepening to a remarkable 954mb low. That barometric pressure is comparable to a category 3 hurricane.

Above: Transportation and Works Newfoundland plows having a difficult time on Pitts Memorial Drive, Saturday, January 18. The four lane highway was covered in snowdrifts reaching over 15 feet high (Transportation and Works Newfoundland Photo)

Many of you have likely viewed the photos on news and social media of the mountains of snow in St John's, up to the rooftops in many cases. The amount of snow was incredible, 76.2cm in 24 hours in St. John's. That smashed the cities record of 68.4cm set on April 5, 1999. Even more fell in other parts of the Avalon Peninsula, including 93cm at Mount Pearl. That was just one part of this ferocious storm, the other was the relentless wind. We may never know just how strong it was in St. John's, because the anemometer failed at the airport. Before it did however, winds gusted up to 134km/h (83mph). Forecasters estimate the wind may have exceeded 150km/h in St. John's. The wind was remarkable across the Avalon, reaching 171km/h (106mph) at Green Island and Fortune Bay. In St John's, wind gusts exceeded 100km/h for 15 consecutive hours.

A spectacular NOAA satellite image of the storm exploding off the Newfoundland coast on Friday, January 17, 2020.

The storm also produced wave heights along the Atlantic coast of over 15 feet. The combination of wind and snow produced blizzard conditions for almost 21 hours. Visibility at best was few metres and near zero most of the time. A state of emergency was declared across the Avalon, and remains in effect for many locations including St. John's on Monday. Roads, the airport, businesses and schools remain closed. The Telegram Newspaper in St. John's has halted printing and distribution until the state of emergency is lifted.

Firefighters battle near-zero visibility in St. John's on Friday, January 17, 2020

Close to 300 Canadian Armed Forces personal are on the ground Monday, helping weary first responders and public works employees deal with the aftermath of the storm. In some cases, 15 foot (4.5 metre) drifts are blocking roadways, delaying in the efforts to restore power. Thousands of customers were in the dark as a result of the storm.

More snow fell late Sunday, before the temperature nudged above the freezing mark. Windy and colder weather is forecast this week, but thankfully a break in the parade of storms the region has had this winter. To date, St. John's has recorded an amazing 248cm of snow this winter. By comparison, Montreal has received 110cm.

Snowy weekend for Montreal

The Thursday morning commute in Montreal was a slow one, with 5cm of snow falling in the city. Closer to 10cm occurred south of Montreal. Numerous accidents were reported by provincial police, especially off-island to the south and west. (Valley Weather Photo)

After a rather mild December and early January, winter weather has started to spread across the country in earnest. Early Friday morning, temperatures are around -20C (-4F) across southern Quebec, along with a gusty northwest wind. Windchill values are as cold as -30C. The cold air poured into the region behind low pressure, that produced 5 to 10cm of fluffy snow across southern Quebec on Thursday.

High pressure will dominate the day in Montreal, with abundant sunshine, but cold temperatures, the high will be -14C (7F). Friday night will be mostly clear and cold once again, with overnight lows of -20C. On Saturday, clouds will increase rapidly as strengthening low pressure travels down the St. Lawrence Valley. Expect snow to spread across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec during the afternoon and evening hours. The snow could be heavy at times overnight into Sunday morning. At this time, amounts will remain below warning levels for Montreal, but could approach them in Ottawa. A general 10 to 15cm is possible across southern Quebec, with as much as 25cm in eastern Ontario. Winds will be rather gusty throughout the storm, up to 50km/h. Expect areas of blowing and drifting snow. Travel will be impacted across the region. The snow should taper to flurries on Sunday. Temperatures will remain cold throughout the period and into next week.

The cold is just a small sample of what western Canada has been experiencing over the last week. Overnight lows have been in the -30s and -40s across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with windchill values as cold as the -50s. The cold has even seeped in coastal regions of British Columbia, where Vancouver has received more snow in January, 34.5cm, than Montreal 23.6cm.

It appears the colder weather is with us for a little while now, certainly to close out January and even into the early portions of February. This is in stark contrast to the above normal temperatures that have dominated Montreal weather since the start of December.

58,000 without power in Quebec from wind and ice

While we were prepared for the worst, I was pleased to see mostly sleet (ice pellets) had fallen on Ile Perrot overnight, with very little ice accretion. Freezing rain is falling this morning, mixed with snow and ice pellets. Precipitation should taper of this afternoon. (ValleyWeather)

Over 58,000 Quebec homes and businesses are without power this morning after a night of freezing rain and strong winds. Most of the outages are in the Monteregie south of Montreal. The island of Montreal is in decent shape so far. We caught a huge break on Saturday, as mild air held on a few hours longer producing more liquid rather than frozen precipitation. Since the changeover around 10pm Saturday evening, most of the freezing rain has been mixed with ice pellets,which does not stick to trees or power lines. The wind has been gusting to 60km/h at times from the northeast.

Hydro Quebec has more than 100 teams on the road Sunday morning to restore power as quickly as possible. Power outages have also been reported in central and eastern Ontario. The precipitation is expected to continue through the middle portion of the day in Montreal, with another 10 to 15mm of freezing rain possible, especially south of the city. Some sleet and light snow will mix in as well. Conditions should start to improve later this afternoon. Winds will diminish as well by this evening. The temperature will remain nearly steady near -5C (23F) today in Montreal, dropping to -11 (12F) by Monday morning. 

The massive winter storm creating the heavy rain and ice in Quebec, stretched from Texas to Atlantic Canada. The system not only produced flooding rains in Ontario and Quebec, but heavy snow to the north and west of the track and deadly tornadoes to the south. Along the US east coast on Saturday, a surge of warm air generated by the same storm, resulted in over 60 record highs, some dating back to the 1890's.

The heavy rain Saturday produced plenty of localized flooding across the region. Montreal received a record breaking 44.2mm at Trudeau Airport, crushing the previous daily record of 18.6mm set in 2008. All that rainfall is now ice, with a current temperature of -6C (21F) in Montreal, down from Saturday's high of 7C (45F). If you head today be extremely careful as all surfaces are covered in snow and ice.

Major freezing rain event for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

The heaviest freezing rain will occur Saturday night in a narrow band across central Ontario and extreme southern Quebec. Within this zone up to 25mm (1 inch) of ice is possible. (AccuWeather.com) 

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.
Ice Storm Warning for the St. Lawrence Valley, northern New York and Vermont

Travel not recommended tonight in southern Quebec and Ontario. Plan for power outages.

A frontal boundary lies just north of Montreal early Saturday morning, the dividing line between very warm air to our south and arctic air to the north. Strong low pressure will ride along the front over the next 12 to 24 hours, spreading heavy rain and eventually freezing rain across the region.

Radar early Saturday morning is showing heavier rainfall moving into southwestern Quebec. Rainfall will continue all day, with as much as 25mm in Montreal. The rain will lead to isolated flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Temperatures today will be very mild, reaching up to 10C (50F).

The frontal boundary will begin to shift south early this evening across southern Quebec, ushering in much colder air at the surface, while the warm air remains aloft. This will set the stage for several hours of heavy freezing rain. Exactly where the boundary sets up, will establish who receives the most ice accretion. At this time is appears the heaviest frozen precipitation will occur across the southern portions of metro Montreal south to the US border, and along the St. Lawrence Valley towards Brockville and Kingston. Some locations within this band will receive up to 30mm of freezing rain. This is more than enough to take down tree branches and power lines.

Regions further north of this zone, including Laval, will cool off very quickly and switch over to ice pellets (sleet) or snow. The temperature will fall quickly down to -7C (19F) overnight in Montreal, and remain fairly steady Sunday. Winds will pick up as well overnight and Sunday, gusting as high as 70km/h in southern Quebec. The wind could take down ice covered branches and power lines on Sunday.

The weather will improve late Sunday and Monday, with just a few flurries forecast along with seasonable highs of -6C. Much colder air arrives late next week, remaining for the balance of January.

Dangerous freezing rain event for Montreal and Ottawa

A narrow band of heavy freezing rain will set up along a frontal boundary Saturday into Sunday. Montreal has the potential to receive a significant amount of frozen precipitation. (AccuWeather.com)

Special Weather Statement: Montreal and Ottawa.
Winter Storm Watch: St. Lawrence Valley

A period of heavy freezing rain is forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley including Montreal late Saturday into Sunday.

A very dangerous weather situation is setting up for the upcoming weekend across a portion of Ontario and southern Quebec. A warm front is lifting north of Montreal Friday morning, with temperatures expected to rise rapidly today up to 5C (41F). A few flurries or spotty showers are expected today. Heavy rain changing to freezing rain is likely Saturday.

Ice Storm
On Saturday the aforementioned front will begin to settle south once again, with arctic air located just to the north and a surge of record breaking tropical air to the south or Montreal. Along the front, low pressure will lift north, accompanied by abundant moisture. Heavy rain will develop across the region, with as much as 25mm (1 inch) expected. Saturday evening, cold air is expected to bleed back into the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley as well as extreme northern Vermont and New York, with rain changing to freezing rain. Ice accumulations may be significant, with more than 25mm possible by Sunday morning. This amount of ice accretion will result in tree and power line damage. Expect power outages. Strong winds are also expected on Sunday, up to 70km/h in Montreal, which will only add to the damage potential. The precipitation will taper off Sunday afternoon.

The temperatures will be wild this weekend, possibly reaching a record high 10C (50F) in Montreal on Saturday. The previous record was 9.4C (49F) set in 1975. However the mercury will fall just a quickly Saturday night once the cold front slips south of Montreal, down to -7C (19F). The temperature range will be very dramatic across a very small region Saturday evening. Travel will become extremely difficult

Now is the time to plan for power outages. Charge your devices, prepare your home and make sure you have a full tank of gas. There is still some uncertainty in the path of the storm and where the freezing rain will set up. Hopefully Montreal ends up with more liquid precipitation or sleet, but at the moment, it is looking like freezing rain.

I will update the forecast and any warnings throughout the event.

Significant winter storm possible for Montreal this weekend

Significant amounts of rain, freezing rain and snow are possible this weekend in Ontario and Quebec.

Expect a temperature roller coaster ride over the next few days, with a significant winter storm likely by the weekend for parts of southern Ontario and Quebec.

A cold front has crossed southern Quebec early Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a frosty 24 hours. Gusty winds up to 50km/h will accompany dropping temperatures into Thursday morning, with lows round -15C (5F) expected in Montreal. Thursday will see increasing clouds as a very complex winter storm begins to take shape across the central portion of the US.

Montreal will see increasing temperatures on Thursday as a warm front lifts across the St. Lawrence Valley. The low will be reached early in the evening, with the mercury climbing through Friday morning, all the way up to 7C (45F). Arctic high pressure will retreat just to our north, setting up a very tight temperature gradient across southern Quebec and Ontario. This will set the stage for a wide variety of precipitation this weekend.

A cold front will lie very close to Montreal early Saturday morning, with strong low pressure expected to ride along the front late in the day. This system will have abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture accompanying it, with as much as 75mm (3 inches) of precipitation possible in some locations across southern Ontario and Quebec. The forecast difficulty lies in the exact temperature when the influx of moisture arrives.

At this time rain is forecast on Saturday in Montreal, changing to freezing rain or snow late in the day. Temperatures will drop rapidly once the front settles south of the city. Gusty winds are also forecast with this storm. Some locations in the Montreal region may receive significant amounts of freezing rain or snow.

As the exact placement of the front becomes more clear, weather watches and warnings will likely be issued. If you have any travel plans this weekend, pay close attention to the latest forecasts.