Montreal on the warm side of the latest winter storm

Strong low pressure will slowly move from the southern Appalachians towards Ontario over the next 48 hours, with a wide variety of precipitation. Montreal and southern Quebec will be on the warm side of the storm with rain expected. (AccuWeather) 

Strong low pressure is forecast to move from the southern Appalachians towards the Great Lakes on Monday. The strengthening storm will take a very unusual path towards western New York and across Lake Ontario before drifting west across Ontario and eventually towards James Bay. The slow moving system is forecast to deliver widespread snow and rain, along with very strong winds.

Montreal will be on the warm side of the storm for the duration of the event, with rain arriving Monday afternoon from south to north. The rain could be heavy at times Monday evening, with 15-25mm possible in the city and perhaps as much as 50mm east of Montreal. Precipitation will persist on Tuesday in the form of showers or drizzle. By the evening hours, colder air will begin to filter in on the backside of the low pressure, changing showers to a few flurries. Winds will also be very strong with this system, gusting up to 70km/h at times in Montreal and 90km/h in parts of Ontario. Temperatures will be very mild in Montreal, reaching 7C (45F) on Monday, and all the way up to 13C (55F) on Tuesday. We even have a shot at the record high for December 1, of 14.8C set in 1998.

Along and west of the storm center across southwestern Ontario, New York and Ohio, the rain will change to heavy wet snow Monday night, with 15 to 30cm possible. The hardest hit regions will be in the snowbelts of the Great Lakes, but snow is expected as well in Toronto, Detroit, Cleveland and Windsor.

The storm will be slow moving, meandering around the region through at least Thursday, with thick clouds and blustery winds. Another storm system is expected by next Saturday, with more snow and rain for southern Quebec, as the weather pattern remains quite active.

A brief return to colder weather in Montreal following the first snowfall

Another spectacular shot by photographer Steve Walsh, this one taken in Verdun. For a few moments, this gloomy November was turned into a winter wonderland late Sunday. The snow is melting away Monday morning. (Steve Walsh Photography)

The first snowfall of the season brought a few surprises along with it. The storm underperformed in southern Quebec but dumped a record-breaking 19cm of snow at Pearson Airport in Toronto. The snow spread across Ontario Sunday, arriving in southern Quebec by 4pm. The snow changed to rain in Montreal by 10pm, while remaining as mostly frozen precipitation from Toronto towards Ottawa. The early season storm brought with it the usual rash of accidents, especially across eastern Ontario where the snow was heavier. 

In Montreal, around 10cm of very wet snow accumulated, making for a spectacular Sunday night against the backdrop of an otherwise gloomy November. The snow actually seemed to pick peoples spirits up, at least until the rain arrived. This morning, we are left with a wet, slushy mess, at least here on L'Ile Perrot. We have added about 15mm of rain on top of the snowfall.

A mix of snow and freezing rain continues north and east of the city. Light snow is also falling across the Ottawa Valley. The precipitation should taper off early this afternoon, as the storm responsible lifts into far eastern Quebec.

Temperatures are very mild this morning in Montreal, sitting at 5C (41F) while Ottawa is 0C (32F) and Toronto -2C (28F). As the precipitation ends in Montreal, temperatures will begin to fall, back down below the freezing point by this evening and down to a morning low Tuesday of -5C (23F). Winds will also pick up, out of the southwest 30-50km/h. The weather will be sunny, but cold Tuesday with a high of -3C (27F).

Another storm system arrives in southern Quebec on Wednesday, with the chance for more snow.

First widespread snow of the season forecast for Montreal

Strengthening low pressure will move along the St. Lawrence Valley late Sunday and Monday bringing Montreal the first widespread snowfall of the season. Up to 10cm may fall in Montreal, with more than 15cm north and east of the city. The snow will change to rain from Montreal south on Monday.

Special Weather Statement for Montreal for 5-10cm of snow Sunday evening.

We are in the process of cooling down early Saturday morning after another very warm high of 15C (59F) in Montreal on Friday. Our unusual November trudges along, a month that has featured an all time record high of 22.4C (73F), as well as snowfall and temperatures as cold as -7C (19F). 

On Saturday, we can expect a rather cloudy day, with slowly falling temperatures towards the freezing point by late this afternoon. Overnight lows in Montreal tonight will be cold, down to -6C in the city. On Sunday, our attention will shift to developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley. This storm is forecast to strengthen as it moves along or just south of the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. My current thinking is snow will develop over southwestern Quebec after 4pm on Sunday afternoon. The snow will likely persist into the overnight hours before mixing with rain early Monday morning. Before the mixing, we could be looking at 5 to10cm of snowfall for Montreal, less across the South Shore and perhaps as much as 15 cm over Laval and the North Shore. There is also a chance of some freezing rain during the transition. If that occurs, it would be in the pre-dawn hours Monday morning. Expect snow covered and slippery roads for the Monday morning commute.

Gusty winds of up to 60km/h will accompany the precipitation, especially in the St. Lawrence Valley. The winds will be out of the northeast to begin with, which will help keep temperatures below freezing in Montreal. The high on Sunday will reach 0C (32F) late in the day, before rising overnight into Monday, well above freezing. Just how warm we reach on Monday, will be determined by the exact track of the storm. The current forecast high is 8C (47F), but I really believe that is optimistic. 

Mainly snow is forecast in the Laurentians and Quebec City. Weather warnings may be required for those regions. Similar snowy conditions are forecast for Ottawa and the 401 corridor towards Kingston. Snowfall totals will be 10-15cm along the Ottawa Valley, dropping to less than 5cm as you approach Lake Ontario.

Conditions will improve Monday evening, but it will turn quite cold behind the system, with lows dropping to -4C (25F). Another system will arrive late Wednesday, with perhaps more snow and rain.

Wind storm knocks out power to over 250,000 in Ontario - 10,500 in Quebec

Police and Hydro workers tend to down trees and power lines on Sunday afternoon in Kingston, Ontario. Wind gusts in Ontario reached 141km/h (86mph) and 101km/h (60mph) in southern Quebec. Across the eastern US and Canada, power outages approached 1 million customers during the height of the storm.
(kingstonist.com photo)

Strong low pressure moved across the Great Lakes on Sunday bringing powerful winds of up to 140km/h in southern Ontario and 101km/h in Quebec. There were at least 15 reports of winds in excess of 100km/h (60 mph) in Ontario alone, including 100km/h at Toronto's Pearson Airport, 131 km/h at Port Colborne and a peak gust to 141km/h at Niagara Airport. In Quebec, the strongest wind of 101km/h occurred in the Richelieu Valley at Sainte-Bernard-de-Lacolle. In Montreal, winds were generally lighter from 40-60km/h, with a peak of 70km/h reported at Trudeau Airport. The storm also produced rain and snow, with 10 to 20cm falling across eastern Quebec including Charlevoix and the Laurentians Wildlife Reserve. I measured 10.9mm of rain here at my home on Ile Perrot, with only 3.6mm falling at Trudeau Airport.

Rare November severe thunderstorms were also reported late Sunday, adding to the wind damage across Ontario, New York and New England.

The wind created widespread damage to buildings, trees and power lines in Ontario. Hydro One reported nearly 15 percent of its grid was impacted, with a total of over 250,000 in the dark in Ontario alone. Many remain without power on Monday. The wind also swept across the US side of the lakes with over 500,000 homes and businesses without power from Michigan to New York. In Quebec, Hydro-Quebec reported 10,500 customers without power as of Monday morning.

In addition to the power outages, the wind toppled hundreds of trees and branches, many onto homes and cars. The water on Lake Erie was whipped into a frenzy, with reports of waves in excess of 15 feet. Storm surge flooding occurred on the northeast side of Lake Erie, including in Buffalo, Port Colborne and Fort Erie. The surge reached over 9 feet in some locations along the shoreline.

The wind remains gusty in Montreal on Monday, as the storm pulls into northern Quebec. Cooler temperatures will return this evening, with showers changing to flurries overnight. Temperatures will drop down below freezing Monday night, with a forecast low of -3C (27F) in Montreal.

Classic Great Lakes fall storm to impact Ontario & Quebec

Wind Warning posted for the Richelieu Valley

Freezing Rain Warning for Ottawa and west Quebec

A classic "November Witch" fall storm will sweep across the Great Lakes today. Powerful winds between 70-120km/h are forecast for large portions of southern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Precipitation in the form of snow and rain is also forecast. Montreal will have above freezing temperatures and can expect mainly rain with 10-15mm expected. Behind the storm, gusty winds and flurries will persist most of the day on Monday.

Strengthening low pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes on Sunday and into far western Quebec. The storm will bring a wide variety of active weather from snow and freezing rain across the north, to powerful winds and rain across the eastern Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley.

The first round of precipitation early Sunday morning, is encountering temperatures that are slightly below freezing in the Ottawa Valley and portions of western Quebec. A freezing rain warning has been issued for those locations. Expect 1-3mm of frozen precipitation, before temperatures rise above freezing. The rest of us, including metro Montreal, will see showers, beginning late this morning and tapering off this evening. As cold air moves back into the area overnight, there is a chance for a few flurries before morning.

The big story with this storm will be strong to severe wind gusts. In the Montreal region, we are expected to be on the edge of the strongest winds, with gusts to 70km/h possible in the city later this afternoon and this evening persisting into Monday. Regions southeast of metro Montreal in the Richelieu Valley can expect gusts to 90km/h. A wind warning has been posted for that area by Environment Canada.

Southwest of Montreal along the St. Lawrence Seaway and especially on Lakes Erie and Ontario, winds could easily reach 90km/h with gusts on the open waters of the Great Lakes approaching hurricane strength of  120km/h. Storm warnings have been issued across the Great Lakes. Waves on the open water are expected to be between 8 and 15 feet, capable of submerging smaller boats. There is also an increased chance of lakeshore flooding in the shoreline communities along both sides of the international border. Power outages and tree damage are also possible, especially across southern and eastern Ontario.

Conditions should begin to improve on Monday as winds ease during the afternoon hours. 

November heatwave comes to an end for Montreal

The sunset on Tuesday, November 10 was spectacular, fitting for the warmest November day ever recorded in Montreal. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Colder weather has returned to southern Quebec after our remarkable stretch of warm weather. Conditions were similar to late summer then mid-November. By the numbers it was very impressive. There were dozens upon dozens of new record highs established from central Ontario to Atlantic Canada. Many locations also recorded their warmest November temperatures ever. 

In Montreal, we established seven new weather records between November 5 and 10. Records highs were established on November 5, 9, 10 and 11th. On November 10th, not only did we set a daily record, but the high of 22.4C (73F) was the warmest November temperature ever recorded in the city. This surpassed the previous high of 21.7C (71F) set on November 6, 1948. Tuesday's high also represented the latest in November that a 20C temperature has been observed in Montreal. The entire stretch of warmth established another record for the longest 15C plus stretch in the city since record keeping began in the 1870's. Accompanying the warm weather was brilliant sunshine, with some of the most spectacular sunsets I have seen this year.

While we have been enjoying late summer warmth, the southern Prairies have been shivering in biting cold and wind-driven snow. My good friend and Publisher of the Gravelbourg Tribune, Paul Bosivert, sent me this photo of deep snow on
Main Street in Gravelbourg, Saskatchewan. The photo was taken
after the storm subsided on Monday, November 9. 

While all this was playing out in eastern Canada, western portions of the country from B.C. to Manitoba have been plunged into mid-winter conditions. Heavy snow, strong winds and arctic cold have dominated the weather most of this week. The weekend blizzard closed large stretches of highway in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Temperatures are slowly returning to normal out west as they are here in southern Quebec.

COLDER WEATHER RETURNS

As I take a peak into the future, it appears our warm weather is over. But that does not necessarily mean we will have bone-chilling cold. Temperatures will settle back within range of the normal high of 5C (41F) and low of -2C (28F). For the upcoming weekend, sunny skies will prevail on Saturday, before a strengthening Great Lakes storm brings us rainy, windy weather for Sunday. By early next week, some of the coldest air of the season will settle into our region, bringing us below freezing temperatures for daytime highs by Wednesday.  Accompanying the cold will be some light snow or flurries. It is too early to tell if we will have some accumulations, but it is possible. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to persist through the end of the month.

Record warmth for eastern Canada - blizzard for the Prairies

A spectacular November sunset on the South Shore of Montreal on November 6. The weather across southern Quebec has been more like late summer than late fall. (Valley Weather Photo)

What a spectacular weekend it was across southern Quebec and Ontario. The weather was more like early September than mid-November. Numerous record highs were established from Ontario to Atlantic Canada. Here in Montreal the high both Saturday and Sunday was just shy of the 20C (68F) mark although some parts of the city, including here on Ile Perrot, hit 21C (70F). The record for both Saturday and Sunday was 20C established in 1975. Trudeau reached 19.8C Saturday and 19.3C Sunday. Montreal did manage a record high on Thursday, when the mercury hit 21C beating out the 1988 record of 19C. 

We are in for two more very warm days, with highs near 21C on Monday and Tuesday. The records to beat in Montreal are 19.4C set in 1945 for Monday, and 18.3C set in 1948 for Tuesday. This continuous stretch of very warm weather in the longest for any November since record keeping began in Montreal. The normal high for early November should be 7C (45F) and the low -1C (30F). Even the overnight periods have been very mild, only dropping to around 10C (50F).

We can thank strong high pressure anchored off the east coast of the US for the fantastic fall weather. The high will slide east by Wednesday, allowing a frontal system to move into our region. The front will tap into some moisture from the remains of hurricane Eta. Expect showers to develop late Tuesday or early Wednesday, and persist most of the day. Behind the front, we can expect clearing skies on Thursday, along with more seasonable temperatures. Highs will drop down to the single digits, with lows back below freezing.

Prairie Blizzard

While we have been enjoying a late taste of summer here in Montreal, winter weather has returned to western Canada. A strong winter storm has produced heavy snow and  high winds across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Many locations have reported over 30cm of snow, accompanied by winds of up to 90km/h. In Edmonton 20 to 40cm of snow fell Saturday, while a peak wind gust of 102km/h was observed at Ardenville. The snow was preceded by several hours of freezing rain in eastern Saskatchewan. Numerous roads are closed, including the Trans Canada Highway from Swift Current to the Alberta border. Blizzard warnings have been posted. The storm will taper off on Monday. Temperatures have plummeted in advance of the storm, down into the minus teens.

Catastrophic flooding in the wake of Hurricane Eta has resulted in over 150 deaths in Central America. The storm, the strongest of the 2020 season to date, has weakened from the once Category 4 powerhouse and is now heading for south Florida. (CBC)

One final weather note is hurricane Eta. Eta was a powerful category 4 storm when is smashed into the Nicaraguan coast on Tuesday, November 3. The storm has produced catastrophic flash flooding across Central America, with hundreds of fatalities reported. River flooding and landslides occurred after 300-500mm of rain fell. Eta emerged back into the Caribbean Sea on Saturday, regaining tropical storm strength, with 100km/h winds.  On Sunday evening, the storm was located 225 kilometres southeast of Miami. Eta will sweep across the Florida Keys overnight and move into central Florida on Monday.

Winter weather for 36 hours followed by a warming trend

The first snow fell last Monday in parts of southern Quebec, mainly outside of Montreal, including Rougemont, shown above. More snow can be expected to start this week. It will feel like winter is here to stay, but much warmer weather returns by Wednesday and persists well into next week. (Photo: T. Giotsalitis)

Southern Ontario and Quebec including metro Montreal, can expect a potent shot of winter weather over the next 36 hours or so. A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday evening, followed by weak low pressure late Monday. Showers Sunday evening, will mix with and change to flurries across the region. Montreal can expect temperatures to drop to the freezing point early Monday morning and remain there into Tuesday morning. Strong winds of up to 60km/h will make it feel even colder. In terms of accumulations, a dusting to perhaps a few centimetres is possible for the city, especially across the highest elevations around Montreal.

The cold air will also generate heavy lake effect and mountain snow showers. Some locations downwind of Lakes Huron and Ontario will see a significant lake snow event with up to 30cm possible. Widespread weather warnings are in effect. Heavy snow is also possible south of the lakes across western New York including parts of Watertown and Buffalo.

We can expect a false start to winter this week, with snowy, cold and windy weather through Tuesday. (AccuWeather.com)

In the Eastern Townships of southern Quebec as well as the Green Mountain and Adirondacks, 10 to 20cm of snow is possible throughout the day Monday and into the evening hours. The heaviest snow would likely be Monday night. Expect poor travel conditions along portions of Highways 10 and 55 around Sherbrooke. A special weather statement has been issued for that region. Tuesday will be blustery and cold across all of southern Quebec, with daytime highs around 3C (39F).

WARMING TREND

After a cold start to the day on Wednesday, a warm front will lift north across the St. Lawrence Valley. This will be the start of a prolonged period of very mild temperatures with little precipitation. The warm and dry weather will persist into next weekend. Daytime highs will rise above normal into the middle teens. The above normal temperatures are expected to continue well  into the second week of November.