Happy New Year!

We are entering the last half hour of what has certainly been a challenging year. I wish everyone a happy and healthy 2021. Thank you so much for reading as I enter my 42nd year of weather observations in the St. Lawrence Valley.

As we head into the last 30 minutes of 2020, the weather in Montreal is clear, winds are light and the temperature is -7C (19F). I am crunching the numbers from 2020, a wild weather year to say the least, and I hope to have a blog post on the past year ready this weekend.

Be well everyone...SB

Winter storm to impact southern Quebec to start 2021

Snow from Wednesday's system covers a plowed field in Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile-Perrot on New Year's Eve. The day featured partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures, perfect for any outdoor activity. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Better late than never I guess, as the first significant winter storm of the season is set to impact southern Quebec this weekend. Up until now, the majority of the storms have either missed us outright, or delivered Montreal a messy mix of rain, with little snow. Anything over 11cm will result in the biggest snowfall, since last February.

Skies are clear on this New Year's Eve and winds have become light this evening. As a result, temperatures have dropped quicker than expected, Montreal is currently -4C (25F). The overnight low will be around -8C (17F). On New Year's Day, expect increasing clouds as low pressure and a strong warm front lift northeast from the midwestern US. High temperatures will be mild, up to -2C (29F). Any precipitation should hold off until after dark.

Snow will overspread Ontario during the afternoon hours, arriving in Montreal after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times overnight into early Saturday morning. There is also a risk of some sleet or freezing rain mixing in, especially south of the St. Lawrence Valley. At this time, a general 10 to 20cm of snow is expected in Montreal. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast from 20-40km/h. 

Travel will be difficult across the region. The storm in question is delivering a swath of snow and freezing rain from Texas to New England. Widespread weather warnings are in effect including winter weather advisories for neigbouring northern New York and Vermont. I expect weather warnings will be issued for a portion of our region on Friday. Skies will clear out on Sunday, but another storm system is forecast for early next week. This storm however may remain south of our forecast region.

More wintry weather for southern Quebec

A rather weak weather system sill managed to bring most of southern Quebec including metro Montreal, 5 to 10cm of snow on Wednesday afternoon. After a quiet start to 2021 Friday, another storm system is set to arrive Saturday with more snow for Quebec and Ontario.

Precipitation has come to an end in Montreal, with temperatures hovering around the freezing point early Thursday morning. It is just cold enough outside for a thin layer of ice on everything, as I found out the hard way leaving the house this morning. The clipper system is now well northeast of Montreal after overperforming a touch. Trudeau Airport measured 9.2cm of snow on Wednesday along with 3.2mm of a rain/freezing rain mix. Temperatures remained below freezing until late in the evening, allowing for the extra snowfall. The very light holiday/pandemic traffic allowed for a rather easy time on area highways despite the snow.

The last day of 2020 will be partly to mostly cloudy in Montreal, along with a breezy west wind of 30 to 50km/h and temperatures steady around 1C (34F). Skies will remain partly cloudy tonight, with temperatures dropping steadily through the freezing point around midnight to morning lows of -8C (18F).

New Year's Day will be the calm before the next storm system, with increasing clouds and mild highs near -2C (29F). The next system arrives Friday night from the southern US. This storm will be tricky to forecast, as most have been this fall/winter. Expect another mix of precipitation, but perhaps with more snow than rain for Montreal. I'm still ironing out the details, but precipitation won't likely begin until after 11pm New Year's Day. I will post an update later today, but at this time, Saturday looks rather messy, with perhaps more than 10cm of snow. Temperatures will remain mild however, with no frigid air in sight.

Clipper delivers some snow to Montreal to end 2020

Only 18.4cm of snow has fallen in Montreal in December, well below the normal amount of 48.9cm. We will add a little to that total later today but will still fall short. It has been a very tame winter so far.

 A relatively weak weather system, an Alberta Clipper, will cross the Great Lakes and move just north of Montreal late tonight. Accompanying the system will be an area of light snow and perhaps some mixed precipitation. The low will move northeast of Montreal on Thursday, leaving behind clearing skies and mild temperatures to end the year.

Clouds have already increased early Wednesday morning across southern Quebec, and the snow is not far behind. Light snow is moving northeast across Ontario. The snow should arrive in Montreal this afternoon. Less than 5cm is expected in Montreal, with 10-20cm as you move north towards St Jerome and the Laurentians. A snowfall warning is in effect for those regions, if your commute takes you in that direction.

For Montreal, the snow will mix with ice pellets or freezing rain tonight, as temperatures warm to 1C (34F). Precipitation will taper off to a few showers or flurries early Thursday. Temperatures have cooled from out Christmas Day record high of 13.3C (56F), down to more seasonable levels over the last 24 hours. But no real arctic air is in our future, as our mild fall and winter continues.

Another storm system is set to bring us more snow late New Year's Day into the first weekend of 2021. I will post more info on the potential storm later today and on New Year's Eve.

Wet, windy and warm Christmas for Montreal

Wednesday evening was just perfect outdoors in Montreal. Fresh snow on the ground and comfortable temperatures made it a beautiful night. Such is not the case Christmas Eve, as mild weather and heavy rain have melted away most of the snow cover leaving a soggy, muddy landscape. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Heavy rainfall warning in effect for southern Quebec.

 A deep trough of low pressure is slowly moving across the central portion of the continent, spreading a wide variety of weather along its path. A strong cold front, the leading edge of arctic air, is currently passing through the Toronto region. The front will change rain to snow as it crawls east. Behind the front, heavy snow is forecast across the snowbelt regions of the Great Lakes, including Ontario and New York.

Late Christmas Eve, low pressure is forecast to develop along the front and move north into eastern Ontario. Montreal is clearly on the warm side of the system, as we sit at 8C (47F) Thursday afternoon. The temperature will continue to rise into Christmas morning, with a record breaking high of 13C (55F) forecast for Friday. The record for the warmest Christmas in Montreal is 11.7C (53F) set all the way back in 1932. Accompanying the warm air is a swath of heavy rain. Between 30-50mm (1-2 inches) of rain is forecast for eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Further west, the rain will change to snow Christmas Eve, with 10-15cm forecast in southern Ontario. Winds will be strong across the region, gusting between 40-60 km/h.

This storm is producing dangerous weather in many locations. Blizzard conditions occurred across southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. In New England and New York, many of the same regions that received 100cm of snow just last week, will be receiving 50mm of rain through Friday. Widespread flood watches have been issued, with moderate to major flooding anticipated from the southern tier of New York into southern Vermont. Further south, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible across the Carolinas and middle Atlantic region.

Another Green Christmas for Montreal

In Montreal, we managed 11cm of snow this week from three separate weak storm systems. Up until Thursday morning, we had our white Christmas on the ground. That is not the case any longer, as the mild weather and southeast winds have managed to melt most of the snow. The rest will disappear overnight.

Colder weather will return Friday afternoon, as the aforementioned cold front arrives in southern Quebec. Any leftover rain will taper to a few flurries, along with strong gusty west winds and dropping temperatures all the way to -10C (14F) by Saturday morning. Any wet surfaces will freeze, so use caution if out and about Christmas night.

Christmas storm to bring rain and wind to southern Quebec

Woodland Avenue in Verdun looking a little festive in the snow this past Sunday. The thin layer of snow in Montreal will melt away on Thursday as temperatures soar to 10C (50F). (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter is here, officially arriving on Monday morning at 5:02. The good news is that the days will now slowly get longer. To celebrate winters arrival, we have a little light snow falling early Tuesday morning, but it remains very mild, near the freezing point in Montreal. December has certainly fooled many forecasters, while I personally expected mild weather, I also expected plenty of snow to go along with it. It just has not developed that way. The majority of systems have delivered rainy, mild weather or missed us completely to the south or west. So as we head towards Christmas, we have less than a 1cm of snow on the ground in Montreal, with only 10.8cm falling for the entire month of December. Toronto has actually had more snow this month.

Another warm storm is upon us, with heavy rain and strong winds expected beginning Thursday afternoon. An elongated arctic front will push east across Ontario on Thursday, with the front becoming the focus for deep Gulf of Mexico moisture. Heavy rain is forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with as much as 40mm possible. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the front and move north into eastern Ontario enhancing the rainfall. The low will also allow a surge of mild air in advance of the system, with high temperatures possibly above 10C (50F) in southern Quebec from Thursday into Christmas Day. Accompanying the rain will be very strong gusty southeast winds. Winds may approach 80km/h in some portions of our forecast region. Minor flooding is also possible, especially in any regions that do have snowpack.

Cold air will surge in behind the Christmas Day storm across southern Quebec, changing the rain to snow. Only minor snow accumulations are expected in Montreal. (AccuWeather.com)

As the front pulls across southern Quebec on Friday, very cold air will rush in behind it. Any leftover precipitation will changeover to a period of snow or flurries on strong northwest winds. The rain will change to snow from west to east across Ontario then Quebec. Temperatures will tumble from well-above the freezing point to -10C (14F) by Saturday morning. Any standing water will freeze over, so keep this in mind if you venture out on Friday.

There are still many details to fine tune over the next 48 hours, but I don't see this anything other than a very mild forecast for Montreal. Now quite normal for Montreal, this will be our third consecutive very green holiday season.

Epic snowfall across southern New York & New England

An incredible record-setting 100cm (40 inches) of snow has fallen in Binghamton, New York in the last 24 hours. (Syracuse.com)

The massive Nor'Easter that dumped record amounts of snow from Pennsylvania to New England is slowly moving towards Nova Scotia on Thursday afternoon. The storm put down a general 30-60cm (12-24 inches) of snow from the central Appalachians into New England. The snow was accompanied by 50 to 90km/h winds.

The storm was epic in a swath from northeast Pennsylvania into southern Vermont, where between 75-100cm of snow fell in less than 24 hours. This included the city of Binghamton, New York along the southern tier of the state, where the largest snowfall in recorded history occurred. They measured over 100cm (40 inches) through Thursday morning and it is still snowing. Numerous roads are closed and the region is completely shut down. A state of emergency has been declared in many communities across southern New York. Closer to metro New York City, 15-25cm of snow fell. The storm will arrive along coastal sections of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick later today, with 15-25cm forecast.

A spectacular NOAA satellite image of the Nor'Easter, with an eye no less, south of Long Island, New York on Thursday morning. Montreal remained on the northern edge of the epic storm, with just clouds and gusty northeast winds. (NOAA).

In Montreal, overcast skies and gusty northeast winds were all we felt from the historic snowstorm. 

As a reference point for just how big this storm was, Montreal has only recorded 27cm of snow since November 1. Last winter, October 2019 to May 2020, we measured 204.6cm (82 inches) of snow at Trudeau Airport. That was for an entire season! Binghamton had half our seasonal snowfall in 24 hours. Many northeast cities have measured more snow since late Wednesday afternoon than they did all last winter.

Massive snowstorm to miss Montreal...again

The National Weather Service in Albany produced this map of expected snowfall from the massive snowstorm forecast today and Thursday. Amounts taper off quickly as you head north towards the Ontario/Quebec border. Only a few flurries are forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley.

In a scenario all too common this year, another snowstorm is missing southern Quebec, but not by much. A massive Nor'Easter is currently strengthening off the Carolina coast, poised to dump 30-60cm (1-2 feet) of wind-driven snow from Virginia to Nova Scotia. Snow has already started falling across the Appalachians and into Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon. The snow will move across New England overnight and Thursday. Cities such as New York and Boston are forecasting more than 25cm. Winds are expected to howl across the region, gusting as high as 90km/h. Further south into New Jersey and Delaware heavy rain and freezing rain is forecast. Road closures are already occurring, with travel expected to be nearly impossible overnight tonight across the Northeast and southern New England.

The storm will move into Atlantic Canada by late Thursday and Friday. In Montreal, arctic high pressure, responsible for the coldest air so far this season, is shoving the storm south and east of Quebec. Montreal will remain on the extreme northern edge of the system, with clouds and gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h being the only impact. South of Montreal and into the Eastern Township, a few flurries are possible, with perhaps a couple of centimetres accumulation.

Montreal has basically been on the outside looking in for every storm this month. We have recorded only 4.6cm of snowfall at Trudeau Airport through December 16. The normal for the month is 48.9cm. At present we are looking at our third consecutive Christmas break, with little to no snow on the ground. Not good for any outdoor winter sports enthusiast.

Cold temperatures will prevail through the end of the week in southern Quebec. The low Wednesday morning in Montreal was -18C (0F). So far we have only managed a high of -14C (7F) under veiled sunshine. As the the pressure gradient tightens between the storm to our south and the high pressure over the region, northeast winds will increase. The gusty winds will create very cold windchills tonight and Thursday, in the -20C to -30C range. Bundle up!

Looking ahead, milder air is expected to return this weekend, along with a slight chance for some flurries or light snow. There are several opportunities for light snow next week, but nothing major at this time.

Messy weekend storm to impact Montreal

As we witnessed Wednesday morning, it does not take a huge amount of snow to create dangerous driving conditions. A burst of snow during the morning commute lead to dozens of accidents in Montreal. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter is desperately trying to establish a foothold in southern Quebec. But with no real cold air in place, it has been difficult at best. The little snow that has fallen to date, including the 4 to 5cm of snow that fell on Wednesday in Montreal, melts away very quickly. Even milder air is expected on Friday, as high temperatures in southern Quebec climb to 5C (41F). Skies will tend mostly cloudy, with just  few sprinkles or flurries possible.

Marginally colder air is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley Friday night and early Saturday, with lows down to -1C (30F). On Saturday, strengthening low pressure will move towards southern Ontario and eventually down the St. Lawrence Valley. As with every storm this fall, warm air will arrive with the storm. Precipitation is expected to overspread eastern Ontario in the morning hours, spreading into southern Quebec and metro Montreal during the afternoon. At this time, it appears enough cold air will remain at the surface in to allow for a messy mix of snow, freezing rain and eventually rain from Montreal south. 

A good 10 to 20mm of precipitation if expected with this system, mostly falling as rain in Montreal, but there may be a few hours of freezing rain at the onset, especially between Montreal and Ottawa. Further north, mainly snow will fall, with 10 to 20cm possible. The amount and type of precipitation will need to be fine tuned as the event draws closer, and the path of the low becomes a little more precise. For now, plan on slick travel Saturday into the overnight hours across the entire region. By Sunday, enough warm air should change most of the precipitation to rain in Montreal and points south.

I am also watching the potential for a much larger winter storm for the middle portion of next week. There remain many details to iron out at this time.

Southwestern Quebec on edge of weekend snowstorm

Montreal will remain on the western edge of a weekend coastal storm. At this time only a few flurries are expected in the city, with heavy snow falling from the Townships eastward towards the Maine border. (AccuWeather.com)

It is yet another dreary morning in Montreal, with a light cold rain falling. The day will shape up cloudy, with scattered showers and flurries and temperatures fairly steady near 2 or 3C. The big weather news is the potential for a snowstorm this weekend. But before you get too angry or excited, depending which side of the snow team you root for, it appears the storm will miss Montreal. As was the case earlier this week, when a snowstorm impacted the lower Great Lakes and most of Ontario, sparing southwestern Quebec.

This weekends storm is forecast to move off the Carolina coast late on Friday and strengthen rapidly as it moves along the eastern seaboard and into Maine or Nova Scotia. Precipitation is forecast to spread north into New England on Saturday reaching southern Quebec by late in the day. 

At this time, it appears Montreal will remain on the extreme western edge of this compact storm. At best clouds and gusty northeast winds are expected, at the worst perhaps a few flurries. The forecast track of this storm has been all over the map, and any deviation in the final path will determine exactly where the snow falls. I expect the heaviest snow will fall from the Beauce northeast towards the Lower North Shore and the Gaspe regions. In this area 20-30cm is possible along with strong winds and blowing snow. There is also a risk of freezing rain in the Gaspe. Quebec City and Sherbrooke may receive up to 10cm of fresh snow. Portions of interior New England from Vermont south and east towards the coast are looking at 10 to 30cm of snow. If any of you still actually travel, be aware that driving will be difficult across those regions.

The storm will pull into Atlantic Canada on Sunday, with any snow tapering off to flurries. Colder air will move in behind the system on gusty north winds. Temperatures will be chilly this weekend, remining close to the freezing point for highs and down to -5C for overnight lows in Montreal.

The cool weather remains with us to start next week, with a slight warming trend towards the end of the week. No other storms are on the horizon at this time.