Strong thunderstorms - turning much cooler for southern Quebec

A spectacular sunset in Terrasee-Vaudreuil after a glorious Victoria Day Monday across southern Quebec. Skies were crystal clear all day along with light winds, low humidity and a high of 21C (70F). (Photo Tammy Arbour)

There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon across the region.

It is a very warm and muggy morning across southern Quebec this Wednesday after a mild overnight. Early morning temperatures did not drop below 21C (70F) across the region. Clouds will mix with sun to start the day, followed by an increase in coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms by early afternoon. It will be a very windy day, with gusts out of the southwest between 30 and 50km/h, increasing to 50 to 70km/h this afternoon.

The weather will be warm and humid today, with temperatures approaching 30C (86F) by early afternoon in Montreal. A rather vigorous cold front is forecast to cross the region late in the day. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and move across the region from northwest to southeast. Some of the storms have the potential to become rather strong, with gusty winds being the main threat, but also small hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rainfall. The storms should taper off by sunset, with just a few scattered showers into the overnight period. We need any rainfall we can manage, as just 8.6mm has fallen at Trudeau Airport in May. If this holds, it will break the record for the driest May set back in 1982 when only 12mm fell.

Skies will clear out on Thursday, the weather will turn much cooler and drier, with daytime highs near 17C (63F). Overnight lows will drop down into the single digits Thursday night, with a risk of frost away from the urban areas. High pressure will dominate the weather into the weekend, with mostly clear skies along with slowly warming temperatures.

Warm summer-like week ahead for Montreal

A beautiful summer-like evening along the waterfront in Lachine. The weather has been spectacular as temperatures have warmed to well-above normal values for mid-May. The warm weather should last into the Victoria Day long weekend.

A weak cold front moved across southern Quebec overnight, with just a few isolated showers. Cloudy skies will clear quickly this morning and we can expect another sunny, warm afternoon. High temperatures have been in the mid to upper 20s across southern Quebec, and that trend is expected to persist. Highs will be close to 26C (79F) Tuesday, and up to 30C (86F) both Wednesday and Thursday.

The airmass will become a little more humid as we head into Friday and the weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures, along with an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms. We really need some rainfall as the forests are drying out, and the risk of fire is very high currently in southwestern Quebec. Trudeau Airport has received only 5.2mm of rain to date in May. Even less has fallen in other parts of southern Quebec. This is well below the long-term May average of 81.2mm for Montreal. However, as we witnessed in April, it only takes a day or two to catch up, so let's hope some of those showers develop.

WESTERN SNOWSTORM

While Montreal enjoys our first hot weather of 2021, parts of northern Manitoba including Churchill are under winter storm warnings. Deep low pressure will bring a spring snowstorm to the northern Prairies. Between 30 and 40cm of snow is forecast over the next 36 hours along with winds of 40 to 70km/h and temperatures well-below freezing. At the same time, Winnipeg, in the southern portion of the province is forecasting a high of 30C (86F) today. Just another spring day in Canada!

Temperatures finally warming up in Montreal

The weather is finally starting to feel more like summer in Montreal.

It certainly has been a chilly start to May in Montreal, however the weather is expected to slowly warm over the next few days, starting Friday. High pressure is building into the region, but not without a few hiccups along the way. Frequent upper air disturbances in the atmosphere have been delivering afternoon showers and even the occasional rumble of thunder all week. That trend will persist into the weekend and even early next week. Any showers will be widely scattered, so most regions will remain dry through the period, but wet weather can't be completely ruled out. The best chance for any thunderstorms in Montreal would be Sunday afternoon into the early evening. During the weekend, we can also expect some gusty west winds, between 20 and 40km/h.

Despite the scattered showers, the region continues to be rather dry. Through May 13, Trudeau Airport has only measured 4.6mm of rain. As far as temperatures go, we are finally warming. The high Friday and into the weekend will be around 24C (75F). As we head into next week, we may even see our first 27C (80F) temperature in Montreal. Overnight lows will be seasonably chilly, in the 8C to 12C range (48F to 54F)

One final note, water temperatures around the entire region remain very cold, in most cases well below 10C (50F). Water temperatures that cold can cause hypothermia almost immediately. Last weekend a 28 year old father and his three year old son were killed on Lake Champlain after their kayak flipped. They succumbed quickly to the cold water despite the best efforts of first responders. It is advised that you remain out of the water for the time being. However if you do venture out, you should have cold water gear and always wear your life jacket.

Be safe, have a great weekend.

Our cool spring weather continues

Many parts of southern Quebec remain parched after an extremely dry March and April. The only exceptions are in eastern Quebec closest to the Atlantic Ocean. Central and western Quebec remain well-below normal in terms of rainfall, while Montreal was normal thanks to two days of heavy rain in April. The dry weather has led to a sharp increase in forest fire activity across the province of Quebec, with 127 fires to date in 2021. The ten-year average for the same period is 77 according to SOPFEU. (Environment Canada)

Many parts of southern Quebec had a touch of frost overnight as temperatures dipped to near the freezing point. It was 1C (34F) at my home on Ile Perrot Friday morning, with just a hint of ice on the car windshield. The weather remains very cool for early May, with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below the long-term average. Despite the clouds and damp weather, precipitation totals have once again been rather light to start May, as they were in March and April. To date only 2.8mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport. 

April started very dry as well, but several impressive systems over the last two weeks of the month, actually brought precipitation to just above normal for Montreal. The deal was sealed on the last day of the month when 30mm of rain fell on Montreal last Friday. We ended the month with 83.7mm of precipitation, the normal is 82.2mm. That total included a few centimetres of snow just for good measure, actually more than what fell in March. Many parts of the province were very dry, which resulted in an above normal start to the forest-fire season. Trois Rivieres, northeast of Montreal, received only 15.6mm, or 20 percent of their normal rainfall. That amount was indicative of just how dry it was across west-central Quebec.

Unfortunately it appears our current weather pattern will remain in place for several more days. We are looking at another week of unsettled weather, with more clouds than sunshine and the occasional shower. Temperatures will remain below normal, with daytime highs between 10 and 15C (50 to 60F) and overnight lows between 2 and 7C (35 to 45F). There will be an ever present risk of showers or sprinkles, but the weather should be dry most of the upcoming weekend. The best day at this time appears to be Sunday. Breaks of sunshine may allow the temperatures to gain a few extra degrees. I see no serious heat in the forecast for at least the next ten days.