Heavy snow may impact southern Quebec by Thursday

Clouds off to the southeast from the powerful storm off the New England coast, produced a spectacular sunset over the frozen St. Lawrence River on Île Perrot Saturday evening. The storm produced record amounts of snow for many along the east coast, but only high clouds and gusty north winds in Montreal. (Valley Weather Photo)

The weather is rather tranquil to start the work week in Montreal, with high pressure generally in control through Tuesday. We can expect some high clouds and perhaps a snowflake or two on Monday. Temperatures are warming up this week, and we may even nudge above the freezing point by Wednesday. It is another cold start to the day Monday however, with lows between -16C and -20C across the region. Daytime highs will warm up nicely, with highs expected around -10C (14F). We gain a few more degrees on Tuesday, with fair skies and a high of -2C (28F) in Montreal. 

The forecast will then become very interesting and somewhat complicated by Wednesday. A warm front will lift north of the St. Lawrence Valley, with some light mixed precipitation expected Wednesday afternoon. The temperature will finally rise above the freezing point to 2C (36F). Late Wednesday into Thursday, a potent cold front will slip south of the region, with arctic air quickly flowing back into southern Quebec. That front will settle somewhere across central New York State, with developing low pressure moving along it through Friday. The result will be a period of steady snow Thursday. Amounts are still up in the air and will depend greatly on how far south the cold front sinks. At this time the potential exists for snowfall amounts greater than 15cm in Montreal. There are sill a ton of details to work out, but plan for frozen precipitation from late Wednesday through Friday morning, along with blustery conditions and dropping temperatures.

Southern New England was blasted by a strong winter storm on Saturday. Snowfall rates of 5 to 10cm per hour occurred, along with winds in excess of 90km/h. (Photo: City of Dover, New Hampshire)

Over the weekend, a powerful nor'easter moved along the Atlantic coast and into Nova Scotia. The storm produced record amounts of snow, with close to 60cm in Boston. Winds gusted to hurricane strength in many locations. Coastal flooding and power outages were reported from New Jersey to Newfoundland. The storm also impacted the Maritimes and eastern Quebec. Moncton reported 40cm of snow along with 90km/h winds. In Quebec, winds gusted to 100km/h across the Gaspe Peninsula and 113km/h in Blanc Sablon on the Lower North Shore. The wind and snow closed several highways in eastern Quebec. In Newfoundland both heavy rain and snow occurred. A peak wind gust to 149km/h was observed at Wreckhouse. On Prince Edward Island, motorists needed rescue by the RCMP in absolute blizzard conditions, after 40cm of snow combined with winds gusting to 109km/h. Many roads became impassable.

Montreal to remain on the edge of large winter storm...again

Montreal has only measured 76.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport since November 1st. In a typical winter, Montreal receives over 200cm of snow. I have only had to haul the snowblower out on two occasions.

The chatter among many weather enthusiasts lately is that Montreal has become the place where storms go to die. It certainly seems that way over the last two winters, as just about every winter storm has either passed to our east missing us or to our west, warming us above freezing. The void is obvious, Montreal has only measured 76.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport since November 1st and as of Wednesday morning, was only registering 10cm of snow on the ground. Case in point, over the next week, two major systems will once again avoid southwestern Quebec.

Montreal will remain on the western edge of a large Nor'Easter this weekend. Heavy snow will fall from coastal New England into Atlantic Canada. (AccuWeather.com)

The first storm will become a newsmaker this weekend as it moves along the eastern seaboard. While the track is not set in stone, all indications are that the system will remain well offshore east of the New England coast thus sparing Montreal any major impacts Low pressure is expected to develop Friday off the North Carolina coast. The storm will deepen rapidly, bombing out, with the central pressure dropping more than 24mb in 24 hours. Blizzard conditions are expected, with more than 30cm of snow likely along the coast from New Jersey into Atlantic Canada. Coastal flooding and hurricane force wind are possible along and to the west of the track. Storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the New England and Nova Scotia coastlines.

Across Quebec, light snow will spread as far west as the Eastern Townships. Eastern Quebec and the Gaspe region are expecting heavy snow and strong winds Saturday. In Montreal, high clouds, gusty northerly winds and perhaps a snowflake or two will be the only weather we can expect at this time on Saturday.

The temperature will remain quite cold this weekend, from -17C to -20C overnight, and -10C to 14C for highs. A warming trend is expected next week, as a strengthening storm moves from Colorado towards the central Great Lakes. This system will pass to the northwest of Montreal placing us in the warm sector. The temperature is expected to rise above freezing for the first time since January 9.  Look for mixed precipitation changing to rain on Wednesday. A rapid refreeze is possible late Thursday or Friday. More details on that storm to follow.

Surge after surge of arctic air for Montreal

Frigid temperatures and occasional light snow have kept road crews busy across southern Quebec this month. There have been numerous accidents on Montreal area highways due to black ice. This is especially true on any elevated surface located close to water. Ice fog and mist have been reported on each of the last four mornings. (ValleyWeather Photo)

January has been one cold month in Montreal and across southern Quebec, with surge after surge of arctic air. To date this month, there have been 21 morning lows colder than -20C (-4F) at Trudeau Airport, as compared with one such morning during all of January 2021. This included Monday mornings low of -25C (-13F). Stating the obvious, temperatures have been much colder than normal this month. As of Sunday, the average high at Trudeau Airport for January was -7.4C (19F), with the average low -18C (0F). This compares to the long-term normal of -5.3C (22.5F) and -14C (7F) respectively.

In between the arctic air intrusions, we have had a few milder days as weak low pressure, Alberta Clippers, have traversed the Great Lakes and upstate New York. These systems are typically moisture starved for southern Quebec, dropping a few centimetres at best. After a cold day today, temperatures will take a slow upward trend as another such clipper system moves southwest of Montreal. Up to 10cm of snow is possible for parts of southern Ontario, but here in southern Quebec, just a few flurries is about all we can expect. The clouds overnight and early Tuesday will allow temperatures to slightly moderate, remaining steady tonight near -15C (5F) tonight, and rising to -10C (14F) on Tuesday.

Colder air will once again arrive late Tuesday, with temperatures dropping into the middle -20s by Wednesday morning.  The mercury will not move much in Montreal on Wednesday, remaining close to -20C (-4F) for a daytime high.

Weekend Storm?

We are watching a potential Nor'easter for the upcoming weekend, with several different scenarios on the table. Current thinking is that the heaviest precipitation will remain well east of Montreal over New England and into Atlantic Canada. However, there does remain a possibility of a more western track and perhaps heavier snow for southern Quebec. Regardless of the track, slightly warmer temperatures will prevail Friday and Saturday, before frigid air returns on gusty northwest winds for Sunday.

Extreme Cold Warning in effect for southern Quebec

An extreme cold warning has been issued for Montreal as the coldest air in decades settles into the region. Temperatures will remain in the minus 20s for many on Friday.

Extreme Cold Warning in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario through Saturday. Frostbite can occur in minutes at these temperatures, so dress warmly.

Hydro-Québec is asking residents to cut back on their electric consumption during this cold snap in an effort to protect the grid. They suggest you drop the thermostat by a degree or two and refrain from using large appliances during peak hours.

The coldest air in decades has descended upon southern Quebec and Ontario Friday. Frigid temperatures are being observed across the Montreal region Friday morning, with minus 20s in the St. Lawrence Valley and minus 30s across the Townships and Laurentians. The low temperature at my on home on Île Perrot was -28.6C (-20F), the coldest morning since I moved there in 2009. The wind is light at the moment but will pick up to a slight breeze around 20km/h today making windchills unbearable, between -30C and -40C at times. An extreme cold warning is in effect for basically all of southern Ontario and Quebec through Saturday morning.

To find the last time it was this cold in Montreal, you have to go back to January 15, 2004 when the mercury dipped to -29.1C (-20.4F) at Trudeau Airport. The record low for Friday is -27.5C (-17.5C) set in 2005. We missed the record officially at the airport, but have a chance Saturday morning of breaking the 1976 record low of -28.3C (-19F). The forecast low for Montreal tonight is -30C (-22F).

Despite bright but ineffective sunshine, the high both days will struggle to reach -19C (-2F). A weak clipper system arrives from western Canada on Sunday, with some light snow and a much milder high of -6C (21F). The warm-up will be very brief as temperatures will plunge Sunday night to -23C (-9F) and only warm to -16C (4C) on Monday.

Montreal remained on the low end of historic winter storm

The cleanup is underway in Montreal after 15 to 20cm of snow fell on Monday. The heaviest snow with the storm, up to 50cm, fell across portions of Ontario from the Niagara region towards the Ottawa Valley. (ValleyWeather Photo) 

That was one nasty winter storm. The system developed over the prairies late last week before diving into the deep south this past weekend. Feeding off a combination of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and frigid arctic air from the far north, the storm intensified rapidly, becoming a big weather maker for millions of North Americans. Heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, tornadoes, pounding surf and coastal flooding were all part of this storm as it worked its way northward along the eastern seaboard. The storm moved across southeastern Quebec late Monday.

The system brought a significant winter storm to parts of southern Ontario and Quebec. Historic snow amounts fell in Ontario, with close to 50cm in Ottawa and 40 to 45cm in Toronto. The snow fell quickly Monday morning catching many commuters off guard. Several highways in both Toronto and Ottawa became snarled with cars and trucks bogged down in deep snow. Around the Niagara region, the snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning. Some locations, including Ottawa, reported snow accumulations of up to 10cm (4 inches) in an hour or less.

Schools were closed across many parts of both southern Ontario and Quebec, including here in metro Montreal. 

A Go Transit bus stuck in the snow along Highway 401 in Toronto on Monday. The heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill in the GTA during the morning commute. Some motorists were stuck in their vehicles for up to 8 hours. (CBC photo)

The snow amounts were much lighter on the Quebec side of the border as a result of dry air working its way into the center of the powerful storm. This is a common occurrence with strong cyclonic storms. As a result the heavy snow only lasted an hour or so in the Montreal region. In the end, Trudeau Airport reported 17cm of snow. Other observers in the Montreal region reported between 20 and 25cm of snow. I had close to 20cm at my home on Île Perrot. Strong wind gusts up to 70km/h produced blowing snow and reduced visibility.

Despite the lighter accumulations, there were numerous accidents reported on Quebec highways. Several multiple vehicle collisions on the South Shore Monday afternoon resulted in the closure of sections of Highways 20 and 30. The Sûreté du Québec blamed the collisions on poor visibility and excessive speed for the conditions. Thankfully only minor injuries were reported. In Ontario, hundreds of accidents occurred, with two fatalities reported including a tow truck operator struck along Highway 417 near the Town of Arnprior.

The same storm was responsible for very strong winds in Atlantic Canada. A peak wind gust to 170km/h was observed at Plateau, Nova Scotia. The onshore winds produced coastal flooding in Maine and New Hampshire.

Winter storm to impact southern Quebec Monday

A large winter storm will impact the entire eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. The storm will bring heavy snow and strong winds to metro Montreal and eastern Ontario on Monday, with 20 to 40cm expected across the entire region. The only exception will be the Eastern Townships where warmer air will cause the snow to change to sleet and rain.

Winter Storm Warning in effect for southwestern Quebec, eastern Ontario and northern New York.

It is another bitterly cold morning in Montreal, with temperatures in the middle minus 20s across the region. The low at my home on Ile Perrot so far is -26.4C (-15.5F), the coldest of the season to date. Sunday will be the calm ahead of the winter storm, with sunshine through increasing high clouds and a high warming to -15C (5F).

We are on track for the largest winter storm of the season here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Strengthening low pressure will lift from the deep southern US into Pennsylvania on Sunday and across Vermont on Monday. Heavy precipitation and strong winds will accompany the low as it moves northeast. Along and east of the track, a messy mix of snow, sleet and rain will occur, while in Montreal and points west, very heavy snow along with blowing snow is expected.

The snow will begin in Montreal during the pre-dawn hours Monday and taper off by the evening. The morning and afternoon commutes will be adversely affected, with snowfall rates of a few centimetres and hour possible during the morning hours especially. Storm accumulations will range from 20 to 30cm for metro Montreal, with 30 to 40cm possible across the Laurentians, eastern Ontario including the Ottawa Valley and Cornwall. Less snow is expected for Sherbrooke and the Eastern Townships, as temperatures may briefly warm above freezing on Monday. Up to 10cm is possible in those locations.

Strong winds up to 70km/h will produce blowing snow from Montreal west towards Kingston and Ottawa.

If you have any travel plans along Highway 401 on Monday, I would definitely cancel them. In fact only travel if necessary anywhere on Monday. If working from home is an option for you, I would definitely consider it.

Temperatures will warm briefly in Montreal on Monday, up to -4C (25F). Skies should clear behind the storm on Tuesday, with colder temperatures returning. Another system will bring us more snow on Wednesday followed by another surge of arctic air to end the work week.

Bitterly cold weekend followed by Monday snowstorm

Frigid air will move into Montreal on Friday, followed by the largest snowfall of the season so far on Monday, with 15-25cm anticipated for southern Quebec.

We have reached our high temperature for the day in Montreal at -7C (19F) early Friday morning. A frontal boundary that has been responsible for the clouds, freezing drizzle and light snow over the last 48 hours has finally drifted south into New York State. Much colder air is beginning to filter into southern Quebec on gusty northwest winds. Montreal will be sandwiched between a strong ocean storm that will bring Atlantic Canada heavy snow today and arctic high pressure over Ontario. The result will be a very strong push of arctic air on gusty northwest winds of 20-40km/h.

The temperature in Montreal on Friday will drop all day, reaching -18C (0F) by late afternoon. Wind speeds of up to 40km/h, will produce a biting windchill values in the minus 30s. The mercury will continue to fall, down to -25C (-13F) for lows by Saturday morning. Despite bright sunshine on Saturday, we will see very little upward movement on the temperature, possible reaching -20C for a high. Another cold night Saturday into Sunday at -22C (-8F), before slight moderation in temperatures on Sunday. The high will be near -10C (14F).

Heavy snow is forecast from the southern US into Quebec and Ontario on Sunday and Monday. (AccuWeather.com)

Major Snowstorm

Our attention will then turn to a developing winter storm along the US east coast. The energy that will become this storm is now located across the far western US and will dip into the southeastern part of the country. The system will then deepen as it lifts across the middle Atlantic and into New England by Monday. At this time, confidence is groining that we will see a swath of heavy snow across the St. Lawrence Valley, accompanied by strong northeast winds of 30 gusting to 70km/h at times. The combination of falling and blowing snow will create dangerous travel conditions on Monday across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. At this time it appears a good 20 to 25cm is likely for Montreal, with 15 to 20cm across portions of the Ottawa Valley and 10 to 15cm in the Eastern Townships, where some sleet or freezing rain is possible as well. This is subject to change as the track of the storm becomes a little more clear over the next 24 hours. 

The snow will end Monday night followed by another surge of colder air for Tuesday. I anticipate weather watches and warnings will be required for this system and will provide updates throughout the weekend.

Potential snowstorm on the horizon for southern Quebec

Light snow is making roads slick across southwestern Quebec on Wednesday afternoon. (ValleyWeather Photo)

The coldest air of the season has shifted off to the east of Montreal on Wednesday afternoon, after a bone-chilling 36 hours. The high on Tuesday eventually reached -15.3C for Montreal, but only around midnight as clouds increased. Until that point, we had spent the daylight hours in the -20s, with windchill values in the -30s. The low Tuesday was -24.9C (-12.8F) at Trudeau Airport, the coldest morning since January 2018.

A weak weather system will bring much milder temperatures on Wednesday, along with a few centimetres of snow. The light snow will persist into the evening hours, along with warming temperatures. Expect 3-5cm of fluffy light snow. The next 36 hours will feature milder temperatures, as warm as -3C (27F) in Montreal.

A strong cold front arrives late in the day Thursday, bringing in the arctic airmass once again for the weekend. While it will be cold, with frigid windchills, temperatures should remain a few degrees "warmer" than Tuesday's arctic chill. The highs on Friday and into the weekend will range from -12C to -15C, with overnight lows of -20C to -25C across Southern Quebec.

Confidence is growing in the potential for a major snowstorm along the eastern seaboard by Monday. Heavy snow may extend northwest from the storm center into Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. Stay tuned. (AccuWeather Photo)

Potential Snowstorm

Our attention will then turn to a rapidly developing winter storm, expected to move from the southern US along the Atlantic Seaboard. This storm has been on and off again according to the various forecast models, but confidence is growing that we may see a big snowstorm for our region, possibly the biggest this season. We will have to wait another day or two for the forecast potential to become a little more clear, but for now it looks like a snowy, windy Monday, with in excess of 10cm of snow for Montreal, with much more south and east of the city.

Frigid cold for the next 36 hours in Montreal

Winter has been relatively tame to date in Montreal, with mainly mild weather and very little snow. That will make the next 48 hours seem even colder for most, as frigid arctic air settles over the province. Morning lows early Tuesday will be in the middle minus 20s, with windchill values approaching -40C in many locations.

Extreme cold warning for southern Quebec for Monday night and Tuesday. Expect temperatures in the -20s with windchill values approaching -40C. Exposed skin can freeze in minutes. Make sure your pets are indoors.

Arctic air will invade southern Quebec on Monday behind weak low pressure that brought Montreal a few centimetres of mixed precipitation on Sunday. The temperature briefly warmed above freezing late Sunday afternoon, but has since dropped considerably on gusty northwest winds. Trudeau Airport early Monday morning was -12C (10F), and I don't expect any movement on the mercury today, perhaps even dropping a few degrees by sunset.

Tonight, the coldest airmass of the season will settle over most of Quebec, with extreme cold warnings in effect across the province. The forecast low for metro Montreal is -26C (-15F), which if reached, would make it the coldest night in Montreal since January 14, 2018. To date the coldest low was -21C (-6F) on January 3. The coldest day last winter was -23C (-9.5F) on January 31.

Accompanying the cold will be a brisk northwest wind between 20 and 40km/h, producing windchill values close to -40C for many parts of the province. The temperature will slowly recover on Tuesday under partial sunshine, reaching -19C (-2F) by late in the day.

Much milder air arrives by Wednesday, with daytime highs reaching -5C (23F), along with just a few flurries. Colder air returns by the end of the week, but not as frigid as the next day or so. At this time, there are no major storms on the horizon. However, if your travels take you into southern Ontario or western New York, expect areas of snow squalls, with very heavy snow and near-blizzard conditions. This is especially true south of Watertown, New York, along Highway 401 near Kingston and southeast of Georgian Bay.

Brief arctic blast as major storms avoid Montreal

A Virginia Department of Transport traffic camera showing stranded motorists on a section of Interstate 95 south of Washington D.C. in Fredericksburg, Virginia on Monday, January 3. Some drivers were trapped in their vehicles for up to 27 hours. It was the largest storm is several years in the region. (VDOT Photo via Twitter)

In an all too familiar pattern, the worst of the winter weather continues to avoid the Montreal region. If you do not like snow, then that news is good. So far this season, Montreal has only measured  46.2cm of snow for the entire season at Trudeau Airport, with no major storms to speak of. Slightly more has fallen in the suburbs to the south and west. While we are missing the storms, large portions of both Canada and the US are not. This includes the British Columbia south coast that has had several major snowstorms already this winter. 

The first big snowstorm of the season moved across the middle Atlantic states this week, with up to 30cm of snow on Monday in places like Virginia and Maryland. The storm snarled traffic along the major north to south Interstate 95 corridor, stranding hundreds of motorists for up to 24 hours south of Washington D.C. in northern Virginia. A new storm is taking aim at southern New York and New England for Friday, with 20cm of snow forecast for Boston.

Lake effect snow hammering the New York State Thruway south of Buffalo on Thursday, January 6.

That same storm will deepen rapidly over the Atlantic, with blizzard conditions expected as 80km/h winds combine with up to 40cm of snow through parts of Atlantic Canada on Friday and Saturday. That storm will just brush southern Quebec, with clouds and perhaps a few flurries on Friday. Only a couple of centimetres of fresh snow are likely in southern Quebec between Thursday and Sunday.

On Thursday, a strong cold front moved across the Great Lakes turning on the lake effect snow machine. Waves of lake effect snow are expected southeast of Georgian Bay in Ontario as well as in the Buffalo and Watertown, New York metro regions from Lakes Erie and Ontario.

The next storm will also miss Montreal as well, dropping heavy snow across the Ohio Valley, southern New England and Atlantic Canada. (AccuWeather)

Arctic Blast

This weekend mild air will briefly invade southern Quebec, with a few flurries or spotty showers expected early Sunday. The temperature will rise close to the freezing point late Saturday and early Sunday in Montreal. Late in the day, an arctic cold front will introduce the coldest air of the season to southern Quebec, with lows dropping to -10C (14F) by Monday morning and continuing to drop all the way down to -26C (-15F) by Tuesday morning in the city. Highs will remain in the -20s on Tuesday along with frigid windchills. Some locations in southern Quebec may touch -30C (-22F) by Tuesday morning. The temperature will begin to slowly warm by Wednesday.