Near-perfect weather expected in Montreal for Halloween

Happy Halloween! Trick or Treaters will enjoy a fair, mild evening, with temperatures near 10C (50F), a far cry from the mess of the last 4 years. Enjoy and stay safe.

The headline says it all, after 4 years of rain, wind and Covid, we have a nearly perfect forecast for southern Quebec for trick or treating. High pressure has been in control of our weather all weekend, with sunshine and above normal temperatures. A very weak weather system passing to our south will produce a mix of sun and clouds today, with just a slight risk of some drizzle or a stray shower, but any moisture will hold off until late this evening.

During the trick or treating hours, skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures should be either side of 10C (50F). The week ahead will feature a continued pattern of well above normal temperatures across eastern Canada. A strong ridge of high pressure over eastern North America will keep temperatures very warm through next weekend. More records may fall as the mercury heads towards 21C (70F) by the end of the week in Montreal. That is over double the average expected highs for early November. Overnight lows will be mild as well, above freezing, between 5C and 7C (40 to 45F).

While we can expect warm weather here in southern Quebec, a deep trough in the west will allow arctic air to plunge into the Rockies and Prairies, with cold and more snow expected by the end of this week. The cold weather will push south all the way to California.

Here in Montreal, the weather will remain mild through at least November 10th before we see a pattern change allowing for more seasonable air to arrive. There is no snow in our future at this time.

Record-breaking warmth for southern Quebec

Despite the very warm temperatures in Montreal, the leaves continue to tumble from the trees in rapid fashion. This is to be expected in late October, and will only increase with the strong winds forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase from the southwest today in advance of  cold front, gusting to 40km/h. They will back to the northwest on Thursday, gusting up to 60km/h. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Our spectacular second summer weather continues Wednesday across southern Quebec, with temperatures set to break another record for the date. The high is expected to reach 24C (76F) in Montreal, which will be enough to surpass the previous record of 21.5C (71F) established in 2012. This will continue the streak of sunny, warm days that have been in place since Saturday. The weather will be humid today as well, with a humidex reading approaching 29C (85F) this afternoon.

On Tuesday, the high at Trudeau Airport was an amazing 24.6C (77F), easily surpassing the record of 23.9C set in 1963. The St. Lawrence Valley has been sandwiched between weather systems all week, with a coastal low producing rain and fog southeast of our region, and a strong fall storm over the western Great Lakes. We have been treated to an extended period of sunny, warm days, and mild overnight temperatures. The low in Montreal Tuesday night was warmer than our average daytime highs for late October. The low Wednesday morning only dropped to 14.2C (56F) on Ile Perrot, well above the average low of 0C (32F).

While cooler weather is on the way for Thursday and the upcoming weekend, warmer temperatures are expected to return early next week. A cold front will sweep across southern Quebec this evening, accompanied by showers and gusty southwest winds. A second cold front will usher in chilly temperatures and 60km/h northwest winds on Thursday. Today's record warmth will be replaced by overnight lows near 6C (43F) in Montreal. The high on Thursday is forecast to be only 10C (50F).

At this time the weekend looks great with dry conditions and mild temperatures. Halloween looks mild, but with the chance of some showers.

There is no sign of any really cold temperatures or snowfall for southwestern Quebec at this time. The extended forecast through the first two weeks of November is for above-normal temperatures to persist.

Spectacular October weather across southern Quebec

The weather was absolutely spectacular this weekend across southern Quebec. High temperatures surged into the low 20s with bright sunshine. Meanwhile winter arrived across western Canada. (ValleyWeather)

Our fall heatwave continues on Monday across southern Quebec and Ontario after a perfect weather weekend. The temperature rose into the low 20s across many regions of Quebec, with 10 daily record highs set on Sunday alone. While no records were broken here in Montreal, the high temperatures were still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late October. The high Saturday reached 21.8C (70F) at Trudeau Airport, with 23C (73F) on Ile Perrot. Sunday was just a touch cooler at 20.8C (69F) as clouds began to stream in from the south.

Both days were perfect for any outdoor activity, and many took advantage of the ideal weather to rake leaves and winterize homes and cars. The winter weather will arrive eventually, but not this week that is for certain.

Low pressure moving along the eastern Seaboard Monday will push clouds and showers into portions of southeastern Quebec, with just a slight chance for a sprinkle or two in Montreal. Otherwise expect hazy sunshine, with another warm high near 20C (68F). Tuesday will be fair and warm as well, reaching 23C (73F), with Wednesday's high in Montreal forecast to reach a record-breaking 24C (76F). The current record for Wednesday stands at 21.5C (72F) set in 2012. Overnight lows will be mild as well, around 8C (43F). Expect some fog to form in the valley locations each morning. The normal high/low for late October is 10C (50F) and 1C (33F) respectively.

Above, traffic crawls along Highway 1 near Qu'Appelle, Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon. Heavy wet snow blasted the southern part of that province on Sunday, resulting in numerous accidents, closed highways and widespread power outages. Many residents remain in the dark and cold early Monday morning, as SaskPower dispatches crews to hard hit locations south of the Trans Canada Highway towards the US border. The utility is not reporting on the number of customers without power, but many regions are listed on the outage page from Regina to Moose jaw and points south. (CBC News)

Western Snowstorm

While southern Quebec and Ontario were unseasonable warm this weekend a strong fall storm was skirting across northern Montana and North Dakota. The broad circulation of the storm pulled down very cold air on the backside of the system changing rain to heavy wet snow across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Between 15 and 23cm of snow fell in Calgary Saturday before the snow moved east. On Sunday heavy snow and strong winds created impossible travel conditions along the Trans Canada Highway in Saskatchewan. Numerous accidents and road closures were reported, along with scattered power outages. Visibility was often below 1 kilometre in snow and blowing snow between Swift Current and Regina, and points south. The RCMP and Moose Jaw Police were forced to close highways in and out of that city for the afternoon and evening hours after 10-20cm of snow fell, whipped by 50-70km/h winds.

In southern Manitoba, heavy rain and thunderstorms are occurring early Monday on the warm side of the storm. Temperatures are forecast to drop later today as the storm lifts into northwest Ontario. Strong winds continue across both provinces, gusting up to 90km/h at times.

First snow of the season over the Great Lakes but none for Montreal

Heavy wet snow off the Great Lakes, blanketed parts of upper Michigan this week. The same weather system pushed frost and freezing temperatures all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures were chilly in Montreal, but nothing out of the ordinary, as the coldest air remained west of our region. (Photo Tony Greene via ABC News)

The first snowflakes of the season were in the air over northern portions of Ontario and especially around the Great Lakes on Tuesday, including Chicago, a stark reminder that winter weather is not far off. Heavy wet snow fell across portions of northern Michigan, with over 40cm at Ironwood. The snow created very poor travel conditions and weighed down tree branches onto power lines, knocking out power to thousands. Early snow also occurred in Illinois and northern Indiana.

The snow was part of a large upper level low spinning over the central portion of the lakes, while slowly moving southeast. A cold pool of air aloft was driven down to the surface, with frost and freeze conditions as far south as the Gulf Coast. The unseasonably cold air will be brief in nature as a warming trend is expected into the upcoming weekend. Accompanying the cold air was very gusty northerly winds, up to 90km/h at times off Lake Superior and Huron. The worst of the weather has remined west of Quebec, mainly in Ontario and the Midwest.

For the short-term however, cool, blustery weather will persist. Montreal remains on the edge of the coldest air, with temperatures expected around 10C (50F) for highs. Lows have been chilly, very close to the freezing point, with scattered frost observed. Clouds are on the increase early Wednesday morning as the cold, moist airmass moves over southern Quebec. Expect isolated showers through Thursday, along with a chilly northwest wind.

Some flurries are still possible, mainly over the Adirondacks of New York and perhaps the highest elevations of the Eastern Townships. The broad circulation of the same low has been drawing in deep moisture off the Atlantic Ocean into portions of eastern Quebec. Heavy rain has been reported, with 50 to 75mm (2-3 inches) reported in parts of the Saguenay and Charlevoix regions over the last 24 hours.

Once this system clears southern Quebec on Friday, high pressure will build in for the upcoming weekend, with sunshine and well above normal temperatures expected. Look for highs to rise into the upper teens in Montreal, with lows around 8C. The normal high/low for mid-October in Montreal, is 11C/2C.

Wet and windy storm to impact southern Quebec

The fall foliage is beginning to peak in the St. Lawrence Valley. The weather this week has been nearly perfect for getting out and enjoying the spectacular colours. That is about to change as windy and wet weather arrives on Thursday. Very cold air will move into our region by next Tuesday, with a few snowflakes possible in many regions. (Valley Weather Photo)

Heavy Rainfall Warning in effect for Montreal

The first significant fall storm of the season is advancing across central Ontario early Thursday, expected to pass well north of Montreal. The cyclone will sweep a strong cold front across the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening. In advance of the front, strong and gusty south winds will develop in Montreal Thursday, gusting up to 60km/h at times. The front will also be accompanied by a wide area of heavy rainfall, expected to start this afternoon in Montreal, and persist into the overnight hours. 

Rainfall amounts of 25 to 50mm are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley, with upwards of 70mm north and east of the city. Some minor flooding may occur, especially where gutters and catch basins are clogged with fallen leaves. Heavy rainfall warning are in effect for most of southern and western Quebec.

As the fall weather patterns become established across Canada, mid-latitude storms become much stronger. This is a result of the large temperature and pressure differences that exist with the changing seasons. An example Thursday morning, we have snow falling across southern Manitoba, with temperatures near 0C, while in southern Quebec, temperatures are already in the upper teens, expected to reach near 21C (70F) along the US border.

The deepening storm system in question will move across northern Quebec tonight, while high pressure builds into the region for Friday and Saturday. Unsettled and much colder weather will return next week, with the chance for more showers along with dropping temperatures. Some parts of eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and New England will see a few snowflakes by next Wednesday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, Thursday will be very mild before the rain begins, pushing close to the 20C (68F) mark here in Montreal. Temperatures will be a little cooler for Friday and Saturday, around 16C (60F). Early next week, high temperatures will drop below normal, into the single digits, with lows near the freezing point.

Warm Thursday followed by chilly Thanksgiving weekend

The first frost of the season occurred on Monday, October 3 here on Ile Perrot, well ahead of the average date I've observed over the last ten years. (ValleyWeather Photo)

The first frost occurred this week on Ile Perrot, well ahead of the average date of the last few years, which fell either side of October 21st, and was actually October 29th last fall. Temperatures dropped to between 1C and 3C on several mornings this week in the Montreal region. The growing season does continue however, as freezing temperatures were confined to off-island locations. The temperature was much warmer on Thursday morning, as winds have turned out of the southwest setting us up for a spectacular day.

Thursday will be a good a day as you can expect in October in southern Quebec, with likely the warmest high temperatures until next spring. Expect sunshine through increasing clouds, with a high near 23C (73F). A strong cold front arrives early Friday, accompanied by showers, northwest winds and dropping temperatures. Highs will be reached early Friday, before dropping into the single digits and eventually a low of 1C (33F) by Saturday morning. The weekend will be chilly, with highs around 12C (54F), sunshine Saturday and some showers Sunday. Skies will clear for Thanksgiving Day, with a pleasant high of 13C (55F). 

The fall foliage is reaching near peak levels in the mountains north and south of Montreal, with the colours starting to increase here in the St. Lawrence Valley.

The weather next week looks rather mild, with temperatures swinging back above the normal high of 14C and low of 5C. High pressure will build into southern Quebec once again, with sunshine forecast through Wednesday.

The death toll in Florida from hurricane Ian has exceeded 125. The remains of Ian have been located off the mid-Atlantic coast all week, resulting in more coastal flooding and damage. (Orange County Fire & Rescue Photo)

Atlantic Hurricane Season

Communities continue to rebuild after the devastating impacts of hurricanes Fiona and Ian. In Canada, Prime Minster Trudeau has promised $300 million in relief to help struggling residents rebuild across eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

In Florida, the death toll has surpassed 125 from hurricane Ian, with damage expected to soar to over 1 billion dollars. Five additional fatalities occurred in North Carolina. Fort Myers and the surrounding area experienced catastrophic damage from Ian on Wednesday, September 28. The category four storm made landfall along the Gulf Coast near Fort Myers. Infrastructure and homes have been leveled, and power remains out to over 250,000 residents in the sunshine state. In many areas, a complete rebuild will be necessary. Lee and Charlotte counties have been especially hard-hit, with many of the fatalities occurring on Sanibel Island and at Fort Myers Beach.

The remains of Ian have been spinning off the middle Atlantic coast all week, producing additional flooding and damage from New Jersey to North Carolina.