First snowflakes of the season on the way for southern Quebec

Slushy minor snow accumulations are possible in the Montreal region Monday morning, with more snow expected outside the city, especially in the higher elevations along the New England border.

Special Weather Statement posted for the Eastern Townships, Beauce, Laurentians and Quebec City

The high temperature on Saturday was 20.6C in Montreal, nearly 70F in late October. Then a cold front moved across the region, accompanied by some robust showers, and winds gusting to 60km/h. The heat is now gone reality has returned, with temperatures falling since midday Saturday, and are now in the single digits, 6C (43F) here on Ile Perrot, 5C (41F) at Trudeau Airport.

More cold air is on our doorstep, with overnight lows tonight down to near the freezing point for many locations in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. The aforementioned cold front has stalled south of Montreal across central Vermont and New York. Moisture will begin to overrun that front tonight into Monday morning, allowing for a mix of rain and wet snow to fall along the St. Lawrence Valley. All snow is expected north and east of Montreal, as well as in the higher elevations of the Townships and Beauce.

As far as accumulations are concerned, a slushy coating on grassy surfaces is possible in metro Montreal. Elsewhere across southern Quebec, 5cm to as much as 15cm (2 to 6 inches) of wet snow is possible, the highest totals in the upper elevations along the Maine border.

If you have travel plans for Monday, especially outside of the Montreal region, plan for highly variable conditions, with reduced visibility and slippery roads at times. This will come as a big shock to many after our very warm fall to date.

Skies will clear out for Halloween Tuesday, but the weather will remain chilly, with high temperatures near 4C (39F) and morning lows, with frost, down below freezing to -2C (29F). Frost is likely again Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Warmer, seasonable weather will return to end the week, along with showers into next weekend.

Colder weather on the way for Montreal - Otis slams Acapulco

This fall in has been extremely warm in Montreal to date, with no frost reported in the city and temperatures running well-above normal. That is about to change as the coldest air of the season arrives this weekend and persists into next week. Frost is possible along with the first snowflakes of the season.

There is plenty of weather to talk about early on this Friday morning, with the temperature sitting at a remarkable 16C (61F) in Montreal. The normal high for this time of year is only 9C (48F), we have been running well-above normal this week. Friday will be another warm and windy day across southern Quebec, with a few showers around and high temperatures approaching 20C (68F).

We have one more day of warmth Saturday as a cold front arrives from the west. Behind this front will be the coldest weather of the season, with our first frost and snowflakes likely next week. Highs will drop Sunday into the single digits, and cool even further to around 4C (39F) for Halloween. The good news is the weather looks dry for trick or treating.

Beyond Tuesday, even cooler air arrives, with moisture invading from the south. There is a chance for some flurries by Wednesday, along with frost and freezing temperatures into Thursday morning. The low in Montreal may be as chilly as -2C (29F), cooler than any weather we have seen since early last spring.

Western Snow

While we have been warm, the west has plunged into the deep freeze for October. Cold weather and heavy snow has occurred across Alberta and into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Record setting lows dropped as cold as -20C (-4F), with up to 20cm of snow falling in some locations close to the Montana border. Estevan, Saskatchewan reported 19cm of snow, while the low in Cardston, Alberta dropped to -20C shattering the record of -17.8C set way back in 1939.

Hurricane Otis slammed into Acapulco, Mexico on Wednesday morning, slicing a path of destruction through the city of 900,000 and nearly destroying the tourist industry in one night. Winds topped 265km/h tearing apart resorts and cutting power to the region. The storm strengthened explosively hitting with little warning, surprising forecasters and emergency planners. Photo: Protección Civil Chilpancingo

Hurricane Otis

Hurricane Otis slammed into the Mexican resort city of Acapulco just after midnight Wednesday as a major category 5 storm, with winds of 265km/h (165 mph). Otis was one of the strongest storms on record to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico. The storm has been blamed for at least 27 deaths, and widespread catastrophic damage expected to reach into the billions of dollars. The resort town was destroyed by a direct hit from one forecasters called a nightmare storm. 

Just 12 hours earlier, Otis was a minimal tropical storm, with not one computer model hinting at anything else. The storm then underwent a record breaking explosive intensification, with winds increasing 115mph in under 12 hours. The storm slammed onshore as a well-developed category 5 hurricane destroying infrastructure and severely damaging nearly 80 percent of the hotels in the popular resort community. Residents and tourists were trapped unable to evacuate in the severe weather conditions. Many hunkered down in high rise hotels as windows blew out and roofs torn away.

The unprecedented strengthening of Otis has forecasters extremely concerned for future storms.

Radar image of powerful hurricane Otis just prior to landfall near Acapulco on Wednesday morning. (NOAA)

Wet and chilly weekend expected for Montreal

Our mild September and early October has resulted in a sluggish foliage season across the Montreal region. That began to change drastically over the past week, with many parts of the city now seeing decent colour. There is still plenty of leaves left to fall, but the windy, wet and cooler weather forecast this weekend will likely accelerate that process. (Valley Weather Photo)

Strengthening low pressure along the US east coast this weekend will result in rainfall across much of southern Quebec into New England. Before then, we can expect a mild, partly cloudy Friday, with temperatures pushing into the upper teens. 

This past week has been rather grey and somewhat cooler that we had been accustomed to for most of September into the first week of October. Daytime highs have been closer to normal of late, in the lower teens, but overnight lows remain very mild, as a result most of the region has yet to see any frost.

After a few breaks of sun late Thursday and perhaps a few more Friday morning, cloud cover will thicken once again as the next weather system moves in. A deep trough will develop over the Great Lakes, with the first Nor'Easter of the season developing off the North Carolina coast moving northeast towards Atlantic Canada by Saturday. At the same time a cold front will be approaching from the west. The combination of the two systems will bring a steady rain to Montreal, starting late Friday and persisting into Saturday evening. Amounts will likely exceed 25mm (1 inch) in Montreal and may approach 50mm (2 inches), especially south and east of the city.

Temperatures will be mild Thursday night, with southwesterly winds blowing, dropping to 13C (55F). The normal low is 2C (36F). Friday and most of Saturday will be mild, in the mid to upper teens, before the aforementioned cold front crosses the region late Saturday. Temperatures will drop back to seasonal values for Sunday at 11C (52F),  Look for some of the coldest nights this fall so far Monday and Tuesday, with forecast lows close to 1C (34F). Some areas may see the first frost of the fall season.

Finally, southwesterly winds will become rather gusty on Friday, before backing to the northwest over the weekend, bringing in the cooler air.

Annular Solar Eclipse on Saturday, October 14

The Annular Solar Eclipse occurs when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth. Unlike a total eclipse, the Moon is at it's furthest point from Earth, appearing smaller and leaving a "ring of fire" around the sun. The eclipse will only cover about 10 percent of the sun in Montreal on Saturday, starting at 12:11 PM. (NASA Photo)

Most of North America will be treated to an Annular Solar Eclipse this Saturday, October 14. The Annular Eclipse, unlike a total eclipse, leaves a ring of light visible as the Moon passes between the Earth and Sun. The reason for this is that the Moon is currently at its furthest from Earth and does not completely cover the Sun. The path of near totality will stretch from Oregon to Texas, across parts of northeastern Mexico as well as sections of Alaska and the Caribbean. 

All of  Canada will experience at least a partial solar eclipse, with the best presentation of the eclipse in British Columbia. Vancouver will be at 80 percent peak, around 11am local time. The percentage of the Sun covered by the Moon will lower from west to east across the county, with the lowest impact in Atlantic Canada.

In Montreal, we will only experience around 10 percent of the sun blocked by the moon. The show will begin around 12:11PM, reach maximum around 1:17PM and end by 2:23PM. Despite it being only a partial eclipse, you should always protect your eyes and never stare directly at the sun. Eye damage can occur in seconds. Special viewing glasses are available on Amazon, and they would not be a bad investment. Montreal is only months away from the spectacular total solar eclipse occurring on April 8, 2024.

The best way to view the eclipse on Saturday, will be at NASA.gov, which will be live-streaming the event from various locations in the path of near totality.

As far as the weather is concerned for viewing in Montreal this weekend, after a week of unsettled weather and plenty of rainfall, skies should be fair for Saturday, with temperatures near normal, 15C (59F).

October heatwave over - stormy weather expected for Thanksgiving weekend

The last appreciable rainfall in Montreal fell on September 19. Only 0.8mm has fallen at Trudeau Airport since. That all changes this weekend as our heatwave comes to an end, and heavy rain moves in. Some locations will receive a months rainfall in 48 hours. Between 50-80mm is possible for our region.

Rainfall warning in effect for metro Montreal.

UPDATE, Saturday, October 7: Weather warnings remain in place as heavy rain continues to fall across southern Quebec. As of 12pm, close to 65mm had fallen in Montreal, with another 40mm possible. That would bring amounts over 100mm (4 inches), a record for the date. As a result of the prolonged dry period we just experienced, little flooding is occurring so far. The exception is water accumulation on roadways, especially where leaves are blocking sewer grates. Drive carefully.

Our October heatwave will come to an end on Friday, but with potentially one more record to break before it ends. The forecast high Friday is 25C (77F), the record for the date, set in 2005, is 26C (79F). We have a shot at it, but increasing clouds may hold back afternoon temperatures just a touch. This will be the last day of our current remarkable heatwave. Montreal managed another record high on Wednesday, reaching 28.5C (85F), surpassing the 2005 record of 26C (79F). Dozens of records for heat and humidex, as well as warmest minimum temperatures have been established across eastern North America this week. Included in that was the warmest October high temperature for Montreal, dating back to 1871, with Tuesday's high of 29.3C. We will likely establish another record for the warmest overnight Friday, having only dropped to 19C (66F) so far. The record was 16.7C set in 1937. The normal high for October 6 is 15C (59F), but what is "normal" anymore.

The unusual heat is over, and our attention turns to a frontal boundary slowly mowing across Ontario. Ahead and along the front, heavy rain is occurring, along with some thunder. It has been 16 days since our last rainfall for most of us. A trace did fall at Trudeau on Tuesday morning as a few isolated thunderstorms bubbled up. We need the rain and we will get it. Showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon in Montreal, transitioning to a steady rain overnight and all day Saturday. Total rainfall amounts between Friday and Sunday for southern Quebec will be in the 50-80mm range. Most regions should absorb the rainfall, but there could be some minor water accumulation and flooding in low lying areas.

Tropical storm Philippe, located south of Bermuda on Friday morning, is forecast to weaken and move across Maine and into central Quebec this weekend, adding deep moisture and gusty winds to our forecast. (NHC)

The frontal boundary and parent low pressure will stall over Quebec on the weekend, maintaining showers throughout Thanksgiving and into next week. Adding to the moisture will be the remains of tropical storm Philippe, located 315 kilometres south of Bermuda Friday morning. Philippe is forecast to become post-tropical and move inland across Maine and into southern Quebec by Sunday.

Along with the rain this weekend, will be gusty winds, up to 50km/h, especially Sunday. Temperatures will be the other big story, falling way back to normal values for early October. The low Saturday morning will be 15C, rising to the upper teens Saturday, falling back to the lower teens late in the day and remaining there Sunday, with a high of 13C (55F) expected. The cooler weather will remain with us all next week.

Record breaking warmth to start October - much colder weather for Thanksgiving

The weather has been nearly perfect over the last two weeks across the Montreal region, making for a rather unseasonable yet picturesque view at Point-du-Mouilin in Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile Perrot over the weekend. The upcoming week will feature hazy sunshine and record-breaking warmth. We can expect a dramatic change as we head into the upcoming holiday weekend. (ValleyWeather)

It has been an absolutely spectacular stretch of weather to end  September and start October in Montreal. Strong high pressure has been dominating our weather over the last two weeks, with cool nights and warm pleasant days. Winds have been calm for the last several days. The only glitch in the forecast has been some high clouds at times and hazy skies in the upper atmosphere, generated from western wildfires, something we have become all too familiar with in 2023.

The forecast for this week is for much of the same, very warm temperatures and sunshine. Southwest winds will drive temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal values, with record highs likely through the middle portion of the week. The high on Tuesday is forecast at 29C (85F), the normal high is only 15C (59F). We should break the the record high for Tuesday of 26.7C (80F) set in 1953. On Wednesday and Thursday, highs will be close to 30C (86F). The record highs for those days are 26.7C (80F) and 26C (79F) respectively, both set in 2005. Overnight lows will be warm as well, in the 13C to 17C (55-63F), well above the normal low for early October of 5C (41F).

One more record will likely fall this week, showing us just how mild 2023 has been. We have not recorded a high temperature below 16C (61F) since May 25, a stretch of 132 days. The record in question was established 136 years ago in 1887, when daytime high temperatures remained above 16C for 133 consecutive days, from May 1st to September 10, 1887. Our current run will likely end during the Thanksgiving long weekend, as a cold front and strong low pressure will finally bring Montreal some rain, along with much cooler temperatures. Until then enjoy the summer-like warmth.

As far as precipitation is concerned, we need some moisture, as it has not rained in Montreal since September 19. The aforementioned high pressure has been deflecting all the significant weather systems around southern Quebec. For the month of September, we managed only 27mm of precipitation, well below the normal value of 83.1mm.

By Friday, some showers are possible, with more significant rainfall on Saturday. High temperatures will fall from the upper 20s into the low teens by Saturday and Sunday.