Winter storm sliding south of Montreal across New England

Snow is falling south of Montreal across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains on this Thanksgiving Thursday in the US. So far the storm system is producing mainly light rain here in the St. Lawrence Valley. If you have travel plans south today, expect winter driving conditions. (New England 511)

Widespread weather warnings are in effect across New England today as a messy winter storm brings precipitation to our regions. 

A strengthening winter storm is forecast to move across southern New England on Thursday and into Atlantic Canada. The storm will spread a messy mix of snow and rain across the region during the busy US Thanksgiving Day travel period.

Already this morning, snow is falling in Vermont and New York, with widespread accumulations of 15-25cm forecast, especially across the higher elevations. Temperatures are just above freezing in the valley locations, including Montreal at 2C (36F), where light rain is occurring. The rain will gradually mix with and change to some light snow later today, with minimal accumulation expected in the Montreal region, perhaps a dusting north of the city. Up to 5cm is possible across the Eastern Townships tonight.

Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season thus far will pour across the Great Lakes turning on the snow machine. Widespread warnings are in effect across Ontario and New York for several feet of lake effect snow through Sunday night.

In southern Quebec we can expect occasional flurries through the weekend, as temperatures gradually cool to below freezing by Monday for daytime highs and lows.

If you have any travel plans today and into the weekend, expect highly changeable weather, from light rain, to heavy wet snow, with low visibility and snow covered roads. Winter is here, so adjust your driving.

Messy weather week ahead for Montreal with some snow

The first true winter weather of the season is upon us this week, with a series of low pressure systems and progressively colder air for southern Quebec. The first threat will arrive early Tuesday morning as rain falls across the region. Some locations, especially in the Ottawa Valley and north of Montreal will be cold enough for freezing rain and even snow. Prepare for the onset of winter travel conditions this week.

Freezing Rain Warning issued for Montreal and Ottawa for Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory for parts of upstate New York and northern Vermont.

As expected, slightly colder air has returned to southern Quebec after our very warm fall. The result was a brisk weekend, with temperatures in the lower single digits and overnight lows below freezing. The outdoors felt quite a bit colder, with west winds gusting over 60km/h at times.

Monday will be the calm before the stormy weather as an active weather patter is upon us. We can expect partly cloudy skies, stiff winds and highs near 5C (41F). Our weather will begin to change this evening and for the duration of the forecast period. Clouds will increase tonight, with lows of -2C (29F). 

On Tuesday, strengthening low pressure will lift across the Ohio Valley, passing to the northwest of Montreal. A warm front will approach the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday morning, accompanied by rain and freezing rain. Depending on the surface temperatures at your location when the precipitation begins, a few hour of freezing rain will be possible. My thinking at this time is that the greatest threat will be across the Ottawa Valley as well as north of Montreal. Some regions may even start out with a period of snow, perhaps as much as 5-10cm in the Laurentians and upper Ottawa Valley.

Southerly winds will push the temperature well above freezing in Montreal, to 7C (45F) Tuesday afternoon, with any leftover precipitation falling in the liquid form. If you have any travel plans early Tuesday morning, be prepared for winter driving conditions and icy roads in spots.

First Snowfall?

A trailing cold front later in the day will usher back in more seasonable air, with high temperatures very close to the freezing point for the balance of the work week and beyond. Overnight lows will also turn colder, well-below freezing. There will be the threat for additional snowfall in Montreal as we end November, especially late Thursday and Friday when a coastal storm passes to our south. The exact track of that storm as it evolves will determine how much snow, if any, our region receives, but the potential is there for measurable snow.

Storms avoid Montreal for now - warmest fall on record

Montreal is still waiting for our first measurable snowfall of the season, while the southern Prairies, including Regina shown above, have been plunged into mid-winter conditions, with heavy snow and frigid cold. (CBC SASKATCHEWAN)

Montreal in on the verge of setting the record for the warmest meteorological fall on the record books. The current average temperature for the months of September, October and November combined, sits at 11C (52F), tied with the 2023 record and just 0.1C above the 2017 benchmark. You see the trend here, which has also pushed back the average arrival of the first 5cm snowfall in Montreal to the end of the month or even early December at best. 

As a mater of fact, only a trace of snow has been observed in the city to date, with the average for November being 16cm. Many major US cities including Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit, as well as the Appalachian Mountains from Pennsylvania to North Carolina have measure snow before Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto.

The current complex storm system produced snow last evening across northern Ohio as well as western New York and the Adirondacks. Further north a soaking rain fell across parts of eastern Ontario, with just 7mm measured at my home on Ile Perrot. The bulk of the heaviest rain remained to the south and west of Montreal. Our monthly total sits at only 34.4mm, with officially 0cm of snow.

Meanwhile the coldest air with our current system also stayed west of Montreal, with temperatures across southwestern Quebec in the 5C to 7C (40 to 45F) range. 

Friday morning an upper level low is drifting across central New York state, while surface low pressure develops along the east coast and drifts north into New England. The combination of both systems will keep damp, breezy and dreary weather in Montreal into the weekend, but no snow is expected for now. Temperatures are just too warm.

Looking ahead briefly into next week, colder air will try to make a run at eastern Canada, while a storm moves across the Ohio Valley. Chances for precipitation will increase again, with the potential for measurable snow in southern Quebec by the end of the week. For now we wait and see how cold our temperatures are.

If you want winter weather, head west. A strong storm system plowed into the BC coast this week, with heavy rain, snow and damaging winds gusting as high as 170km/h (105 mph) on the north coast of Vancouver Island. Meanwhile, 80km/h gusts occurred along the south coast. There was widespread power outages, structural damage, downed trees, with at least two fatalities in the Pacific Northwest.

Across the southern Prairies, a strong cold front ushered in mid-winter conditions, with the first snowstorm of the year on Tuesday, followed by arctic cold temperatures. Over 20cm of snow fell in Regina, with metre high drifts produced by 90km/h winds. More snow and cold is forecast this weekend and into next week. This morning while Montreal is 5C (41F), Saskatoon sits at -15C (5F).

Weather pattern change expected for southern Quebec

The weather this fall has been nothing short of spectacular in Montreal, with abundant sunshine, little rainfall, and temperatures well-above normal. We are starting to see a significant pattern change developing to end November and start December. While we can expect cooler temperatures and perhaps a few snowflakes, the weather will only be adjusting to seasonal normals for late November in Montreal and nothing too drastic. It still may be a shock to the system after such a warm fall.

Cooler wet weather on the way, with perhaps our first snowflakes in Montreal.

Until now most of this fall as been dry and warm. Temperatures have been running well-above normal values, along with sparse rainfall. The weather is expected to change significantly this week, with colder air and more wintry precipitation expected across a large portion of the country.

Before then, we can expect another fairly mild start to the work week, with high temperatures reaching the double digits yet again in Montreal, up to 10C (50F) Monday and Tuesday. A few very light showers Monday, will give way to high pressure and sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the same time, strengthening low pressure will bring a widespread snowfall along with gusty winds and much colder temperatures to the southern Prairie into northwest Ontario. By Thursday a developing upper level low will slip south across the Great Lakes, spinning up low pressure at the surface over southern New England. That storm system will result in a wet, cold and at times white period of weather for our region.

The combination of both systems will introduce slightly cooler air into southern Quebec, along with much needed rainfall, up to 25mm from Thursday into Saturday for Montreal. To date in November, we have only received 30mm of rain at Trudeau Airport. 

Most of our region has been dangerously dry this fall, stretching south into upstate New York and New England. There have been several brush fires, which is very unusual for November in our region. Normal precipitation for the month of November should be 84.2mm, that includes 16.3cm of snow. In October, Montreal only received 25mm of rain, the normal should be close to 103mm.

With cloud cover and a cold rain developing Thursday intoSaturday, temperatures will drop into the lower single digits for highs in Montreal and perhaps close to the freezing point for overnight lows. There may even be some upper elevation snowfall across the Laurentians and Eastern Townships with the system next weekend. Some computer models are hinting at 10-15cm of fresh snow for the ski regions south of Montreal. Time will tell.

SNOW?

Looking ahead, colder weather will prevail to end the month and to start December, with a couple of opportunities for our fist snowflakes of the season here in Montreal. We will get into the details in another post, but it looks like more seasonable weather is on the way. Get those winter tires on!

Colder weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Lest We Forget. Take time today to remember those who have served and continue to serve our great nation, so that we can enjoy the incredible freedom that we have in Canada.

The weather on this Remembrance Day Monday will be somewhat dreary as strong low pressure well north of the St. Lawrence Valley has lifted a warm front across Montreal this morning. If your are heading to any of the outdoor services in Montreal or Ottawa, dress for wet weather. Showers developed overnight and will persist most of the day. Close to 14mm has fallen at my weather station on Ile Perrot, much need moisture. Temperatures are mild, 10C (50F), with gusty southwest winds developing. Despite the cloud cover, the mild push of sir should drive the high today into the middle teens.

A strong cold front will push across the region late today. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the front, down to the freezing point or perhaps below in a few spots by Tuesday morning. Strong southwest winds will develop late Monday, backing to the northwest overnight, gusting to 70km/h at times.

Winter weather has been hard to find across most of southern Canada. That was not the case in Colorado and New Mexico, and across the southern Rockies as strong low pressure produced a huge snowfall for many locations. Close to 50cm fell across the metro Denver region, the biggest November snowstorm in nearly 4 decades. (Accu-Weather Photo)

Some potent showers will accompany the front. Those showers could mix with a little wet snow or flurries overnight, especially across the higher elevations of the Laurentians and Eastern Townships.

Tuesday will be blustery and much colder, with winds of 30-50km/h and daytime highs struggling to reach 5C (41F). The balance of the week will be fair, but chilly. An Atlantic Canada storm system on the weekend may retrograde enough to produce some clouds and precipitation on Saturday, but that is not a certainty at all.

The storm that is affecting Quebec today, produced a record-breaking snowstorm across the southern Rockies in Colorado and New Mexico. Denver had its biggest November snowstorm in decades, with 49cm measured. Other locations south of Denver recorded as much as 135cm. It was a top 5 storms fro many localities across Colorado.

On the warm side of the storm, severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening produced some wind damage across southwest Ontario. There was even a rare November nocturnal tornado warned storm between Goderich and London, very uncommon north of the 45th at this time of year.

Another warm and windy Wednesday in Montreal

Despite the dwindling daylight, November is starting out much the same way the rest of the fall has been to date, warm, dry and windy. With the exception of a few days scattered about, most of the time, temperatures have been above to well-above the long-term average. (Valley Weather)

It seems we have a trend this fall of record-breaking warmth on Wednesdays. Last week we managed back to back records of 22.7C (72F) and 24.4C (76F). Today, the temperature is knocking on the door of the 1948 record of 21.7C (71F) at this hour, currently 21.4C (70F). Record or not, today's high is way above the normal of 7C (45F), but as I wrote last week, what is "normal" anymore when it comes to our weather. 

Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front are responsible for the surge in warm air. They are reaching speeds of 60-70km/h here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Hydro-Quebec is reporting scattered power outages as a result of the wind, with just over 13,000 in the dark.

Temperatures will begin to cool once again this evening, dropping to 9C (48F) tonight and remaining fairly steady on Thursday. A few showers are possible, but the bulk of the moisture with this system will remain well to our north.

High pressure will build into southern Quebec for a sunny, but chill Saturday, before clouds, warmer temperatures and some rainfall arrive for Sunday into Monday.

The current trend of a cool day or two, followed by a significant warming trend is expected to persist well into November.

October was warm and dry in Montreal. We only measured 25mm of rain, well below the normal of 91.3mm. The average temperature at Trudeau Airport was 11C, also well-above the normal of 8.9C.

Rare nocturnal November tornadoes produced widespread damage around Oklahoma City on Saturday night and Sunday morning. (KOCO)

Active Weather

The central portion of the continent has had some very active weather over the course of the past week, including some rare November tornadoes. At least a half dozen tornadoes occurred across parts of Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday. Numerous homes were demolished, with at least 11 injuries reported. There were also reports of significant flash flooding, with up to 300mm of rain falling from north Texas into Missouri.

NOAA satellite image of strengthening hurricane Rafael on Wednesday morning, located 205 kilometres south of Havana, Cuba.

Meanwhile the topics have awakened again. Early Wednesday morning, Rafael became a hurricane, located 205 km south, southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael has 175km/h winds and is expected to strengthen to a category 3 storm before landfall in western Cuba late Wednesday. Forecasters then expect the storm to meander around the southern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, while weakening. So far the only impacts to the US mainland are expected to be gusty winds and a 3 foot storm surge in the lower Florida Keys.