Hurricane Erin pounds the Eastern Seaboard with high surf

Pounding surf from Hurricane Erin inundates homes in Buxton, North Carolina along the coast of Hatteras Island on the Outer Banks. Despite being over 300 kilometres form the coast, Erin has produced significant flooding and some structural damage. (WTKR)

Category 2 Hurricane Erin was located 340km east of Cape Hatteras early Thursday morning, with 165km/h (105mph) winds and a central pressure of 945mb. The large and powerful storm sent towering waves crashing into coastlines from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia, producing coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents. Mandatory evacuations were in place for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where State Highway 12 was closed due to ocean over wash and significant flooding over several high tide cycles. Some structures have already been damaged. 

Erin is a large storm, stretching over 1200 kilometres in  diameter, with hurricane force winds extending outward165km from the centre, and tropical storm force winds an incredible 520km from the eye.

On Thursday morning, Erin was located 340 kilometres to the east of Cape Hatteras. The storm was forecast to race off to the northeast today passing south of Atlantic Canada on Friday. Heavy surf is forecast from the Carolina's to Newfoundland for the next 36-48 hours. (Windy.com)

For those of you who frequently read my blog, you are aware of my passion for the Outer Banks. I had been vacationing their since 1991. During my last trip in 2018, I sat under Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, with my dog Bella. It was her last trip. Our time their was spectacular. Today, the Pier is reporting a wind gust to 87km/h, with a 2 to 4 foot surge and towering waves. Not an ideal beach day to say the least.

Erin will continue to produce coastal flooding along the Outer Banks, spreading north into Virginia and the Middle Atlantic States. Later today, gusty winds and heavy surf will move into the Northeast and New England including Long Island and Cape Cod. 

Earlier this week, Hurricane Erin produced heavy rain and flooding in Puerto Rico. At the time, Erin was a powerful category 5 storm, with winds in excess of 160mph. (Unknown Facts)

The heavy wave action will begin to impact the south facing coast of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Friday and into the upcoming weekend before Erin races off to the northeast. Winds may gust to 70km/h along the Nova Scotia coast late Friday and Saturday. Gale to storm force winds are expected in the offshore marine waters of Newfoundland, with seas building to 8 to 10 metres (26-33 feet) by Saturday.

The tropical Atlantic will continue to remain active, with the National Hurricane Centre watching two more areas for development as we head into the peak part of the season.

A taste of autumn for Montreal

A NOAA satellite image showing powerful hurricane Erin Sunday afternoon, located northwest of Puerto Rico. The storm should stay away from land, but will grow in size, sending towering waves towards the Eastern Seaboard and Atlantic Canada coastline this week. (NOAA/NHC)

And just like that, mid-summer weather became September-like in less than 6 hours. If you needed a break from the intense heat, you will have one this week. Montreal did manage another 30C (86F) day on Saturday, before a strong cold front swept across the region early Sunday morning. The front was accompanied by gusty northeast and eventually northwest winds, some much needed rainfall and rapidly falling temperatures. By mid-morning, the mercury had fallen to 15C (59F) here on Ile Perrot.

A decent 11.6mm of rain fell along the front at my weather station on Ile Perrot, but we need more to alleviate the dry summer we have had. Watering restrictions remain in place for several communities on the West Island as well as Vaudreuil-Dorion and here on Ile Perrot. 

The fall-like airmass that moved into southern Quebec will be with us for most of the upcoming week, a big change from the hot and humid weather that has persisted for most of the summer. Late afternoon sunshine did allow the temperature to rebound Sunday, close to 21C (70F) as I write this update. We can expect clear skies overnight, with cool lows in the upper single digits to around 12C (54F) in downtown Montreal. Monday will be fair and cooler, with a high of 21C. Clouds increase Tuesday as another frontal system approaches southern Quebec. 

The Canadian Hurricane Centre forecast track of Erin as the storm turns north this week and approaches Canadian offshore waters. (CHC/Environment Canada)

Hurricane Erin

Erin became the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 season on Saturday, strengthening into a major Category 5 storm, with 255km/h winds, less than 24 hours after forming. Thankfully, the catastrophic strengthening occurred far from land. 

Erin has since weakened slightly to a Category 3 storm, with winds of 205km/h as of 5pm Sunday afternoon. Erin was moving west northwest at 20km/h, with a forecast turn to the northwest and eventually north expected. The center of the storm was located 445km northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, with a barometric pressure of 946mb.

To date Erin has avoided any direct impacts to land, but her size and strength has spread heavy rains in Puerto Rico. Erin is expected to continue to grow in size and may deepen once again as the storm moves offshore of the United States east coast and eventually moving southeast of Atlantic Canada my the end of the week. Heavy surf and rip currents are forecast to spread from Florida to Newfoundland this week.

At this time, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern Bahamas, with Erin producing strong winds and heavy rain as it brushes this region Monday. All interests from the Carolinas to Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of hurricane Erin this week.

Hurricane Erin will have no impact on the weather here in southern Quebec.

Slightly cooler - less humid weather for Montreal

The sudden heavy rain on Wednesday ended a month long dry spell in most locations across the Montreal region. The rain resulted in a white, foamy substance forming that but made roads extremely slippery at the onset. That combined with low visibility resulted in several accidents. The foam was a result of a lack of rain producing a significant buildup of oils and other contaminates on road surfaces.

The historic heatwave is over for Montreal, after six 30C (86F) plus days in a row, the high Wednesday reached only 29C (85F). More importantly, rain fell on the region. Strong thunderstorms swept across the Island of Montreal, producing heavy rain, strong winds and plenty of vivid lightning during the morning hours Wednesday. It had been bone dry for nearly a month in Montreal, but 19.4mm fell at Trudeau Airport during the morning storms, with amounts across our region ranging form 7mm to 20mm. Certainly not a drought buster, but more than welcome.

The rain has improved the wildfire risk in southwestern Quebec, but conditions remain poor southeast of Montreal across the Townships and Beauce regions. You can add Hudson to the growing list of communities that have watering bans in effect. Water levels remain low on all area waterways, so conservation is key at the moment whether or not your community has restrictions.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the weather will remain warm, with highs between 28C and 32C (85 to 90F) through Saturday. On Sunday, a much stronger cold front arrives, with showers and thunderstorms followed by a significant pattern change that will allow much cooler air to settle into southern Quebec next week. More on that in later posts. 

We also need to watch closely Tropical Storm Erin, which is forecast to develop into a major hurricane by late in the weekend. Erin is still far away, located 1595 km east of the Leeward Island on Thursday morning, with 85km/h winds. The storm is no threat to land at the moment.

The most recent heatwave established a ton of record highs across eastern Canada. Some locations, such as Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island recorded their hottest days ever. In Quebec, Gaspe Airport reached 36.2C (97.2F) on Tuesday, the warmest day ever recorded at that location dating back to 1915. It surpassed the previous high of 36C (97F) set back in 2003.

In Montréal, our string of 30C days this summer has now reached 17, well-above the seasonal average of 9. Many of those have been above 32C (90F) and two above 35C (95F). Overnight lows were warm as well, breaking several records this summer.

Historic heatwave coming to an end in Montreal - thunderstorms likely

Another hot sunset in Montreal. The excessively hot and dry summer has taken a toll on trees and vegetation in the region. Many are showing signs of significant heat stress and lack of moisture. The hot weather has been historic in many parts of eastern Canada, with dozens of new temperature records established from Ontario to Newfoundland. Relief is on the way for southern Quebec Wednesday.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Montreal

The historic heatwave that has gripped the eastern part of Canada for nearly a week now will come to an end in Montreal Wednesday. A cold front is moving across Ontario as I write, with showers and thunderstorms developing in advance. Some of the storms may be on the strong side, with gusty winds and heavy rain the main threat. We need the rain, let's just hope it does not come all at once.

Tuesday was another sweltering day, with a record-breaking high of 34.6C (94.3F) at Trudeau Airport. It was the third consecutive day with record heat following Sunday's 34.4C (94F) and Monday's 35.1C (95F). Overnight lows have remained in the low to middle 20s. Montreal was still 29C (85F) at midnight early Wednesday.

Patly sunny skies Wednesday morning will give way to clouds, showers and thunderstorms through the noon hour and into the evening. Temperatures will be warm again today, reaching 30C (86F) before the rain. It will be a muggy day. The air behind the front will be cooler and less humid, with highs in the middle 20s expected Thursday and Friday.

The heatwave has resulted in watering bans being issued for several communities across southern Quebec. The wildfire risk has been high as well, with numerous significant fires being reported in Ontario and across Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland.

Dozens of new record highs were established over the last few days. Badger, Newfoundland reached 36.7C (98F) on Tuesday, a tie for the warmest temperature on record for the province. Miramichi, New Brunswick reached 38.6C (101.5F).

Montreal is also moving up the list for the warmest summer on record. As of Tuesday, we had recorded 10 days of 32C (90F) or higher. That places us fifth in the record books behind the 14 days recorded back in 2020. 

The heatwave has sadly resulted in at least one heat-related death in Montreal, and there have likely been others. The prolonged effect of days of high heat is taking a toll on many. The cooler weather and rain will be more than welcome.

Record warmth for southern Quebec through Tuesday

The weather was hot for the Annual Firefighters Day Parade in Pincourt on Saturday, August 9. Spectators lined the streets of the municipality as First Responders and emergency vehicles slowly passed by. The event has been hosted by the Pincourt/Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile-Perrot Firefighters since 1980. Departments and Agencies participated from the Island of Montreal, across the Monteregie and even eastern Ontario. (Valley Weather Photo)

Heat Warning remains in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.

The warmest air of the summer has settled over the region. Strong high pressure anchored off the eastern seaboard will continue to pump hot and increasingly humid air into southern Quebec to start the work week. The result will be a long period of very warm temperatures along with elevated humidity. With highs in the 30s and humidity readings near 50 percent, humidex values will easily climb through the 30s to near 40C (104F) each afternoon. Overnight lows will remain very warm in the low to middle 20s.

This type of heat is extremely dangerous, especially for the very young, seniors and pets. Stay hydrated, and limit outdoor activities to the early morning hours or near sunset. Find relief in air conditioned buildings such as malls or theaters. Montreal has plenty of shady spots by the lake or river, which offers some slightly cooler air.

Monday will make this an official heatwave in Montreal as the temperature will soar above 30C(86F) for the third consecutive day. On Saturday, Montreal reached 32.3C (90F), while Sunday we warmed even more, with a record high of 34.4C (94F). That surpassed the long-standing 1914 record for the date of 32.8C (91F). Montreal should be even warmer on Monday and Tuesday. The forecast high today is 34C (94F), the record for the date is 35C (95F), set back in 1944. On Tuesday, Montreal is expecting a high of 35C (95F), which should easily break the 2002 record of 32.7C (91F). 

Another concern of the recent heatwaves has been the lack of rainfall. Gardens, crops and trees are starting to show signs of drought and heat stress. Since July 19, Trudeau Airport has recorded only 2.8mm of rain. No rain has fallen in August to date. Vegetation is tinder dry and any outdoor fires are not recommended and in some cases banned all together. Check with your municipality or better yet just don't do it. Most wildfires in Quebec are a result of human activities, such as the burning of trash, discarded cigarettes or campfires.

According to SOPFEU, the fire danger Monday and Tuesday ranges from very high to extreme across the southern and western portion of the province. The same is true across parts of Ontario east to Atlantic Canada. Several significant brush fires have been reported in those regions. Remain vigilant.

Some relief arrives Wednesday in the form of a weak cold front. A few showers are possible. 

Extended period of hot and dry weather for southern Quebec

Less than 1mm of rain has fallen in Montreal during the last three weeks. Lawns are turning yellow and leaves are falling as moisture starved vegetation reacts to the extremely dry conditions. Hot and dry weather is forecast through Tuesday for the St. Lawrence Valley. (ValleyWX Photo)

UPDATE: Saturday, August 9, 6:30PM: Heat Warning issued for metro Montreal.

This has certainly been a hot and dry summer, briefly interrupted by two flooding rain events. If you take a look at Montreal since the start of meteorological summer on June 1st, 155mm of rain has fallen. Not bad right? Break it down and it explains why lawns are turning yellow and leaves are falling from moisture starved trees. In June, only 22mm of rain fell. July was better, with 133.1mm, however, most of that fell on two days, including the flash flooding event of July 13. The lack of frequent precipitation has often been accompanied by searing heat.

August has had no precipitation to date at Trudeau Airport. In fact, only 0.6mm of rain has fallen in the last 20 days. That trend is forecast to continue, with only widely scattered, mostly elevation dependent showers through Tuesday. Here in the St. Lawrence Valley, we are expecting hot and dry weather, with temperatures and eventually humidity levels on the rise.

A grass fire, started by a combine, burns in Leeds and Grenville County in eastern Ontario this week. The dry weather extends from the Prairies into Atlantic Canada. In many parts of Ontario, water and outdoor burn bans are currently in effect as the fire danger remains elevated. (OPP East Photo)

Thursday will be sunny as high pressure builds across the region and extends to our southeast. As that high pressure moved to our east, temperatures will begin to rise. Highs will range from 29C (85F) Thursday, into the low and even some middle 30s by Monday. Overnight lows will be on the rise as well, from the middle teens Friday into the low to even middle 20s in urban areas by Sunday night.

The next chance for any rain or thunderstorms will not come before late Tuesday as a cold front moves southeast from Ontario.

The dry weather has prompted outdoor burn bans for a large part of southern and eastern Ontario. So far in Quebec, the only region with very high to extreme fire risk is the Gaspe region. That may change. Best advice is to avoid burning anything outdoors as most vegetation is significantly lacking in moisture. 

The dry weather extends across a broad region of Canada, with fires burning from Alberta to Newfoundland. So far Quebec remains fortunate, with only 5 active fires according to SOPFEU. This has allowed the province to send firefighters and equipment to Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland.

For now the air quality has improved in southern Quebec, but with the amount of fires currently burning across the country, it is only a matter of time before the smokey skies return.

Poor air quality forecast for southern Quebec Sunday

Widespread smoke and poor visibility is set to return to southern Quebec into Sunday. Numerous wildfires are burning out of control across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The smoke has resulted in air quality alerts being issued across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, New England and the northeastern US.

Air Quality Alert for the entire region.

Gusty westerly winds are expected to carry wildfire smoke from western Canada into the lower levels of the atmosphere in Montreal and Ottawa this evening and especially Sunday. An AQI reading greater than 100 will result in very unhealthy air for any outdoor activities. The smoke will be widespread across southern and eastern Ontario, southern Quebec as well as New York and New England. Poor air quality from fine particulate matter related to fire smoke, can result in burning eyes and nose as well as difficulty breathing.

Strong high pressure is expected to slowly drift across southern Quebec over the next few days, providing our region with dry weather well into the upcoming week. Gusty west winds and low relative humidity levels will increase the fire risk across the region. The Montreal region has had less than 1mm of rain over the last 16 days. The dry weather has been accompanied by very warm temperatures at times, with 9 days over 30C (86F) recorded at Trudeau Airport during the month of July.

Montreal also managed 138mm of rain, well over the normal amount of 91mm. Most of that fell during the flash flooding of July 13, when a new July monthly record of 81.6mm fell at the airport. That included 22.4mm in just 15 minutes. The intense rainstorm erased the July 10, 2024 record of 79.2mm.

So for the upcoming week, we are looking at smoke clearing by Monday, with sunshine and clear nights. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to near 30C, with overnight lows in the middle teens. No rain is expected through next Friday.