Week of transition

It was a busy weekend as valleyweather moves from the south shore of Montreal to the just off the western tip of the Island of Montreal about 50km to the west. It will take a few days to get things properly up and running so the blog entries may be a little small.

This truly is a week of transition both personally and in the weather. The week will start off sunny and mild, although this "dirty" high pressure system continues to allow for low clouds and fog to form in the past 24 hours, this should burn off shortly. Temperatures continue well above normal for November, close to 8C. By Wednesday the first in a series of low pressure areas will begin to affect the region. Showers are expected from Wednesday into the US Thanksgiving holiday. By Thursday low pressure organizing along the Carolina coast will move north towards Long Island. Precipitation in the form of rain will spread inland from south to north across Vermont and New York and into Quebec and Ontario. At first rain is expected, but as cold air moves into the region from the north, we expect the rain to mix with and change to snow Friday night. It is very early in the forecast period, but be advised that colder weather and some snow is in the extended forecast. More on this later in the week.

Weekend Forecast

An active but fairly weak weather pattern is upon us this Friday morning. A frontal system has produced some rain and drizzle this morning in Montreal. This will slowly taper to showers for the balance of the day. Strong southwest winds will develop along and ahead of the associated cold front and will produce gusts up to 70km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley by noon. Skies will remain cloudy tonight and most of Saturday before high pressure gives us a clear and cool night Saturday. Sunday at this time looks sunny before another system moves of the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures this weekend will be near normal with highs near 5 or 6C and lows just below freezing. Any fog that forms Saturday night could freeze on surfaces, keep this in mind when driving. This week, ice fog in Montreal resulted in several serious accidents. SLOW DOWN!
The system that is currently taking shape along the Gulf Coast will be another decent storm for the eastern seaboard. At this time the system is forecast to move along the gulf this weekend and up the east coast of the U.S. on Monday. Montreal will remain on the extreme western flank of the precipitation. From 1-3 inches of rain is expected along the track with gusty winds and high surf, but nowhere near as bad as Ida was last week. However keep in mind that tremendous damage was done to the dunes and beaches, and any high surf is causing problems in the Carolina's north to New Jersey, especially the Outer Banks.

More information on this storm over the weekend. Be safe.

Slippery commute

The fog rolls in just after sunrise this morning along the Lakeshore in Montreal. The conditions made roads very slippery.

A little taste of winter this morning along the St. Lawrence Valley here in Montreal. After a brilliant sunrise just before 7am, the temperature lowered to dew point temperature and dense fog began to rapidly form along the riverfront. The fog spread across the region and deposited a thin layer of moisture that froze on contact with bridges and overpasses. The result was several serious accidents and a very slow commute in the Montreal region. At 6am this morning Trudeau Airport reported 24km visibility with clear skies. As of 9am we were down to 0.8km visibility with ice fog being recorded by the observer. Roads, especially elevated surfaces, remain slippery. Caution is advised this morning while traveling until about noon when the sun will burn off the fog.

Rare November weather

Out of the fog: The tropical air mass from the east coast storm produced high dew points and plenty of fog in Montreal this past weekend. The photo is of the St. Lawrence Seaway early Sunday.

Strong high pressure is dominating the weather in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario this week with abundant sunshine in what should be the cloudiest month of the year. Temperatures will be near normal, 6C during the day and just below freezing at night. The next chance of rain will come by Friday.

Yesterday we had some wild weather across the middle portion of the continent. While it was snowing heavily in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado, northern Alberta had record highs. Portions of northeast Kansas had nearly a foot of snow with 8 inches in Denver. Meanwhile Edmonton shattered their record high, reaching 14C breaking the previous high of 10.9C set in 2001. There were several other record highs in northern Alberta as well.

Rainy Saturday

Clouds are rapidly thickening up as the moisture shield from the remains of Ida nudges across northern New England and into southern Quebec this morning. The main wind has remained along the immediate coast from Maryland north to Maine with just a northeast wind up to 20km/h in Montreal. Gusts to 45mph are possible along the immediate coast. Inland the rain may accumulate from 15-25mm (1 inch) locally and taper to showers tonight. The center of the storm has moved east off the coast of North Carolina, and is well removed from the moisture. The surf is slowly subsiding along the coast, but not after producing record damage in some locations.

Bill left me a comment below directing me to an incredible site with awesome pictures of the recent storm damage on Hatteras Island in the Village of Rodanthe. The subject of many of the photos is a home named Serendipity which was the main star in the film Nights in Rodanthe. I have taken numerous pictures of the house myself and walked that very beach several years in a row. None of my photos come close to these amazing pictures that Bryan Elkus has taken.

Have a look here http://www.bryanelkus.com/

Coastal storm stays south

Above: The cloud deck from the coastal storm and smog along with a thick frost along the South Shore of Montreal this morning. Below: The remains of Ida form a big coastal storm off the mid-Atlantic coast.

The big east coast storm that continues to batter the region from the Carolina's north to New Jersey will begin edging towards our region today. Already sat photos are showing the cloud deck moving into southern Quebec. Clouds will continue to lower over the next 24 hours before rain moves in Saturday. Montreal will remain on the western edge of the storm and therefore we are only expecting light rain.This is not the story along coastal areas where heavy rain and strong winds have produced serious flooding and damage. Thousands are without power in Virginia and North Carolina. The Outer Banks have been hammered by successive high tides producing major flooding. NC 12 is closed on Hatteras Island from Oregon Inlet to Rodanthe. It may reopen later today as the storm slowly moves north. Storm warnings and coastal flood warnings are now posted as far north as Cape Cod. Heavy rain will overspread New England tonight. In Norfolk major flooding has occurred along the coast, and power is out as winds gusted to near hurricane strength yesterday.

Coastal Storm Update

North Carolina 12, in the center of the picture, is washed over with sand and surf while the mighty Atlantic is on the right. This image is looking north from the Village of Rodanthe on the Outer Banks at 8:12 this morning.

The remains of Ida combined with high pressure over Quebec continues to produce a significant wind and water event for the mid Atlantic coast from Long Island south to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Web cams this morning are showing a fierce Atlantic Ocean rising up and in some cases over the dunes producing severe flooding, especially along the Outer Banks and in Virginia Beach. The still shot above is from the web cam looking north from the Village of Rodanthe, a place I know very well. Hatteras Island is narrow at this location and subject to ocean overwash. Winds in the region are gusting from the northeast to 60mph and many regions have reported 3 to 6 inches of rain. Numerous warnings for flash flooding, high surf, high winds and coastal surge remain in effect from New York City to South Carolina and inland up the Chesapeake Bay towards Washington.

The northern extent of the precipitation is into New Jersey while the extreme edge of the cloud shield made for a brilliant sunrise in Montreal today. It appears this system will stay south of Quebec and northern New England for now.

Remains of Ida pounding Mid-Atlantic

The combination of the remains of Hurricane Ida, a frontal system and low pressure north of the Bahamas are expected to produce a long period of heavy rain, wind and high surf from North Carolina to New Jersey. Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for the Carolina's, Virginia, Delaware and Maryland. Coastal flooding is expected along the Outer Banks tonight through Friday afternoon. Ocean over wash is possible along NC12, and it could become impassable. Flooding is expected to be as bad as with Hurricane Isabel in 2003 in many areas of Tidewater of Virginia and Chesapeake. Storm force winds are already blowing along the coast with gusts over 40mph at the Bay Bridge. More information on this story can be found here at The Virginia Pilot Online.

Remembrance Day

Please take time to remember today.

The weather will be ideal for most parts of the country this November 11. Temperatures are close to normal here in Montreal and Eastern Ontario (plus 7 to 10C). It will be sunny and dry. The evenings will be seasonable with lows below freezing (0C to -4C). The next chance for rain will come this weekend. There is not much certainty at this time with the weekend forecast as we wait to see what the remains of Hurricane Ida do.

Ida moved inland along the Alabama coast yesterday with high surf and very heavy rains. The rainfall amounts will be excessive in the 4 to 8 inch range (so far almost 6 inches of rain have been reported in Alabama and the Florida panhandle). As the system moves off the southeast coast it is expected to become a very intense coastal storm with strong winds and destructive tides along the coast from Georgia northward to the middle Atlantic and especially the Carolina's. Numerous warnings are in place for coastal flooding and storm surge. NWS radar this morning is showing very heavy rain in the Carolina's and showers from the system as far north as New York City. High pressure over our area combined with Ida will produce a strong onshore flow along the Atlantic Coast along with strong storm force winds. Coastal damage is expected.

The Florida Coast yesterday as Ida moved inland with primarily flooding. AP Photo

Indian Summer

Indian Summer, is when the weather is sunny and warm, and above normal, usually 21°c (70°F), and all of the leaves of the trees have turned but before the first snow has fallen. A true Indian summer occurs after the first frost, generally a killing frost, of the season.

It really looked like this would be the year not only without a summer, but also without an Indian Summer, but I believe we qualify for this today. The temperature has reached 18C so far at the airport in Montreal (close enough), warmer downtown, and 21C at St. Anicet and along the US border in Champlain, NY. What a glorious day with plenty of sunshine. Enjoy!

Hurricane Ida

Ida this morning in the Gulf of Mexico south of the Mississippi Coast. (NWS Photo)

It is fitting that post number 800 for Valley Weather will be about a Hurricane...

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the US Gulf Coast from Mississippi over to the Florida panhandle, while a Tropical Storm Warning is posted for the Louisiana coast including New Orleans. This morning Hurricane Ida is located about 235 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving NNW at 16mph. The storm has lost some strength and is now back to a Category 1 after peaking at a 2 with 105mph winds yesterday afternoon. Very little change in strength is expected before the storm moves inland tonight. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast track, but despite that, the storm will still bring rising surf and heavy rains to the region. A surge of 3-6 feet above normal tides is expected along with 4 to 8 inches of rainfall. It is still too soon to tell what further impacts up and along the east coast that Ida will have, but most indications at this time are that the system will remain to the south and east of New England. Heavy rain is forecast in the southeast US.

Weekend Weather

Tropical Depression Ida this morning

Post Number 799

We finally have some active weather to talk about, just not here. It has been a very quiet weather week in Ontario and Quebec with just a few flurries and sprinkles this morning along the US border. They should end by noon with clearing skies for the weekend. It will start off chilly today and Saturday morning. Today we will only warm to 5C with a north breeze. Winds however will veer to the south tomorrow and milder air will flow into the region. Look for temperatures of 10 to 12C for the weekend.

The active weather lies on both coasts like bookends. A strong Pacific storm is bring heavy rain and snow to BC and the Pacific northwest. Rainfall amounts of 50-100mm occurred along with heavy mountain snows. Winds were very strong as well with this storm. On the east coast a strong nor'easter is pounding the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coasts with winds over 110km/h, high surf and up to 25cm of snow in the interior of both provinces. The cutoff for the precipitation is sharp with warnings confined to northern and eastern Nova Scotia and most of Newfoundland.

The last big story is we have a tropical system in the Caribbean Sea along the Honduras and Nicaraguan border. Tropical Depression Ida developed yesterday and reached storm strength with winds of 60mph. She has since weakened slightly to a depression as the system interacts with the land. The storm is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and strengthen into a tropical storm once again. Heavy rain is producing flash floods along the Central American coast and especially over higher terrain inland. All interests along the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should begin to monitor this system. It has been a very quiet season and with the end in sight, many have let their guard down. November hurricanes, while rare, can still pack a punch. Hurricane Jeanne back in 1980 flooded parts of the Florida Keys before moving up the east coast as a major storm with rain and even snow inland. Ida is following, to this point anyway, a life cycle similar to Jeanne. Stay tuned!

Breezy and cooler

Parts of Nebraska had record snow for the month of October with several areas recording there annual average in one month! Photo of North Platte, Nebraska from AccuWeather

Showers are slowly moving across the region this morning in advance of a cold front. They are light in nature and should taper off by noon. It will turn windy this afternoon behind the cold front with temperatures dropping to -3C tonight. Combine this with Northwest 30-50km/h winds and it will be an early taste of winter. Another frontal system and associated low will affect the region on Thursday with rain and mountain snow showers. A dusting of snow is possible in the Laurentians, Greens and Adirondacks. It will remain very chilly right through Friday. The weekend at this time looks quite pleasant with sunshine returning and much milder temperatures near 10C once again.

Pleasent weather to start week

A windy, wet Halloween on the West Island of Montreal

It was a very windy Halloween across the island of Montreal, with peak gusts over 70km/h. The good news was that the rain was much lighter than expected with about 9 mm falling. The wet weather was over by trick or treat time, but the wind continued well into the overnight before diminishing. Sunday was sunny with cloudy periods and breezy, but mild for early November with temperatures around 10C.

Monday will be fair before unsettled weather for the balance of the week. Several cold fronts will affect the region with showers at first but the threat for flurries by Thursday as much colder air moves into the St. Lawrence Valley and New England. Daytime highs in the 7 to 10C range will lower to the 3 to 5C range by Friday.

Windy & Spooky

A windy, very spooky and mild Halloween is in store across Ontario, Quebec and New England. Very strong low pressure is moving north across central Ontario and into Quebec. It will draw a potent cold front across the region today. Along the front heavy rain is falling, but the big story is the wind. Wind Advisories are in effect for the Richelieu Valley and south shore in Quebec as well as Prince Edward County in Ontario and northern New York and Vermont. South winds are gusting to 60km/h and will increase to gusts to 90km/h as the front approaches. It will be mild with temperatures in the upper teens (60' F). Once the front passes temperatures will drop down to more seasonable values with clearing skies and diminishing winds. The shower activity will become more spotty for the trick or treaters in Montreal and Kemptville tonight. Please drive safely.

Remember to put your clocks back one hour tonight to standard time.

A windy Halloween

Snow fell in Denver this week. Are we next?

The strong winter storm that has been affecting the US Rockies and central plains is beginning to move northeast. The storm was responsible for nearly 40 inches of snow north and west of Denver with roads closed and power outages reported. The system is trailing a cold front that has produced severe weather in the Midwest and southern plains. That cold front will play a major role in our Halloween weather. As the storm moves across the Dakotas and into northwest Ontario, the cold front will approach the St. Lawrence Valley. Look for strong southwest winds ahead of the front to develop tonight and push the mercury up to the 19C mark in Montreal for Halloween. That is the good news. The bad news is it will be blustery with winds gusting from 50 to 70km/h and even approaching 90km/h in places. We may need advisories on this weather situation, but that will be determined at some point later today. It will not be a washout, but the front will generate a period of heavy showers late in the day Saturday. It will be cooler and dry on Sunday as high pressure follows and the temperature reaches 10C.

Next weeks weather looks interesting by the end of the week, and by that I mean snow is possible. I put my winter tires on the old Saturn this morning, and usually I am pretty good with these things. I would do the same soon as well.

44,000 Hits

Wow, ValleyWeather surpassed 44,000 hits yesterday morning. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for reading. Many of you have asked me weather questions, and friends and co-workers often ask me the weekend forecast and I thank you as well. I always have time to talk weather and have for the last 30 years, since September 1979 when I tracked my first hurricane - David - along the east coast of Florida and started recording daily weather.

My interest in weather actually started much earlier during the winter of 1971 when a fierce March snowstorm closed down Montreal for several days. It caught my young attention span and managed to keep me still for a day just watching the weather outside. Hurricane force winds and 45cm of snow in one day will do that. There have been so many memorable weather events in those 30 years. Some that stand out are the day the Decarie and most of Montreal flooded on July 14, 1987, and shortly after that the terrible Edmonton tornado on the 31st of July 1987. Hurricanes Hugo, Andrew and Katrina, just to name a few. Others are the 1998 Ice Storm, my first tornado in Saskatchewan in 1998, Tropical Storm Allison in June 1995 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the Halloween Nor’Easter in 1991 (the Perfect Strom) and the March 1993 east coast super storm. That storm on March 13, 1993 (43cm) was the only day that I could not get the Montreal Gazette newspaper out to the paper carriers and stores in my entire career at the paper. There are so many more events, too many to mention them all.

Anyway it has been a very challenging year personally for me and I have not always updated ValleyWeather as often as I would have liked to. So for sticking with me I thank you again. I will be relocating in a few weeks and setting up my home weather station again, so I hope to have better and more local weather information and maybe even a web cam in the near future.

Be good and be safe…

**Today will be cloudy across the region and chilly with northeast winds in Montreal, and no better than 9C for a high temperature. Showers are possible especially south of the city towards the U.S. border. Skies will clear out for Thursday and it will be sunny and mild into Friday. It looks like Halloween will be wet, but there is still time for the forecast to change and a window of opportunity for tricks and treats to open up. Next week looks cooler, with a chance of some snow again by mid week.

Sunny Monday

Cross border shoppers were not the only Canadians taking a break on Sunday. These geese paused on their flight south along the Lake Champlain shoreline just off Route 9 in Plattsburg, NY.

It was a mixed weather weekend in our region with steady rain and windy conditions Saturday followed by cooler but dry weather Sunday. About 20mm of rain fell in Montreal Saturday with much less to the north and west, (6mm in Kemptville) and more south and east of the city. Portions of Vermont had nearly double that amount.

High pressure will remain in control today, with a sunny and cool day, close to 7C. A weak area of low pressure will move across the area tonight with just a couple of showers or flurries. A stronger system will impact the area on Wednesday with a greater threat of rain. The week will be mild, with no major cold outbreaks in sight. It is early in the forecast period, but it looks like Halloween could be on the wet side. The rain may taper in time for the trick or treaters. More on that later in the week.

50/50 Weekend

A skiff of snow lines the edges of the elevated expressways this morning in Montreal and I noticed most cars coming from the Townships had quite a bit of snow on them. It was the result of the leftover precipitation behind last nights cold front ending as a little wet snow. Time now for the snow tires before the next round.

Today will start sunny, but clouds are on the increase as strong low pressure over Illinois move northeast towards eastern Ontario. Strong winds and heavy rain will overspread the region today from Ontario towards the Ottawa Valley this evening. The rain, heavy at times and winds of up to 60km/h will move into Montreal overnight. About 20-30mm is expected by the time the precipitation tapers off on Saturday night. it will be much milder with the system with temperatures rising overnight to a Saturday daytime high of 16C.

High pressure will clear skies out on Sunday and it will be slightly cooler at 11C.

Thursday update...

The first snowflakes of the season fell in Montreal this afternoon. Accumulations were light as witnessed on my Saturn above.

5PM: Radar is showing the back edge of the cold front moving south through the Montreal area. Wet snow is falling on the West Island (2C) and north of the city. Travel with extreme caution tonight as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing before the precipitation ends before midnight. Roads will be slick.

1PM: Latest update on the area weather. It is very chilly in Montreal at only 2C. The rain is ever so close to being wet snow, and you don't have to go far to the northeast to find snow. Snow is falling east of Quebec City and areas to the north. Travel is difficult along highway 20 east of Quebec City. Environment Canada has posted a snowfall warning for Montmagny - L'Islet and the Laurentian Wildlife reserve for 10-15cm of wet snow this afternoon. Highway 20 runs through that region for anyone heading to Atlantic Canada today. The cold front is now on radar approaching Ottawa and it will move into Montreal this afternoon. A period of heavy rain and even some thunder along with gusty winds is possible along the front.

Just a quick update on the current weather in the region. Low pressure over eastern Ontario has a warm front to our south and a cold front to our northwest. The showers have ended for the time being in Montreal, but will reform along the cold front this afternoon. It will remain cool in the St. Lawrence Valley with northeast winds and a temperature of only 4C in Montreal but Kemptville may make it into the warm sector for a brief period. Toronto is currently 13C south of the front. Northeast of Montreal in a swath from the Quebec/Ontario border across to east of Quebec City and into northern New Brunswick, snow is falling. Amounts may be as much as 10-15cm locally. Keep this in mind if you are traveling to Quebec City today, where it is currently 0C and snowing. The warm air will remain to our south with this system. Friday will be sunny and cool behind this storm. The weekend looks rainy but mild Saturday with clearing skies Sunday.

Rainy weather ahead

After yesterday’s brief mild weather, it was close to 15C in many regions, today is a little cooler, but dry. The weather is about to become unsettled over the next several days. A combination of low pressure and associated fronts will move across the region beginning tonight, followed by a more intense storm on Saturday. The first system will bring a cold rain to the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and part of Thursday before late clearing. A warm front will lie just south of the region with temperatures in the 14 to 17C range expected south of the front, but under 5C north of the front in Montreal with a cold northeast wind. There may even be a period of wet snow northeast of Quebec City and in northern New Brunswick tonight. Keep this in mind if traveling east on Autoroute 20 or 40.

Saturday’s system will be stronger with more rain and strong winds. It will however be a little milder in Montreal with the second storm. There is still some uncertainty in the track of the weekend storm. I will update this later today. The potential exists for over 25mm of rain in many regions with this system. The only snow expected with this storm will be over northwest Quebec and northeast Ontario.

Frosty morning

In addition to the snow and rain, parts of coastal New England were battered by several days of high surf and strong winds. Plum Island, Massachusetts, one of my favorite vacation spots is shown above is this Boston.com photo taken yesterday. The coastal flooding caused beach erosion, flooding and damaged some homes.

There was a hard freeze in all areas last night with temperatures as cold as -3C in Montreal and -5 to -7C in outlying regions of rural Quebec and Ontario (-6C in Kemptville). There was even an icy layer of fog south of Montreal creating very slippery conditions on some roads, with you guessed it, cars in the ditch. Today will be sunny with warming temperatures to 10C. The storms of the weekend remained well east of our area with only a few stray clouds moving in Saturday. The New England storm is now moving towards Newfoundland with snow and rain forecast. Parts of central and western Newfoundland could see over 10cm of wet snow. The snow has ended in New England with several inches on the ground. It was one of the earliest tastes of winter on record for the region.

This weeks weather will feature unsettled conditions with some showers most of the week after our sunny Monday, but milder. Next weekend may be interesting with a large fall storm developing over the Great Lakes Thursday and controlling our weather well into the weekend.

New England Snow

The Pats embarrass the Titans 59-0 in a snowstorm today in Foxborough, Mass.
Photo NFL.com

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots knew just what weary Red Sox fans needed to perk them up, a record victory in an early season snowstorm. I could not believe the weather (or the score) that was occurring in Foxborough, Massachusetts today. Despite the heavy wet snow, strong winds and cold, the Patriots destroyed the Titans 59-0. The weather was as big a story as the game itself. Low pressure passing over the Atlantic coast well east of Cape Cod produced heavy precipitation along the entire coastline. Just enough cold air mixed into the storm to produce wet snow across the interior regions of central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Along the coast heavy rain and very strong winds, over 40mph, are producing some coastal flooding. Advisories are in effect tonight. The storm will continue to move northeast towards Atlantic Canada, with 30mm of rain and 40-60km/h winds forecast for Halifax.

The weather in southern New England was in stark contrast to the beautiful fall weekend southern Quebec and Ontario had. Sunny both days, with just a few cloudy periods, and seasonable highs in the 8 to 10C range, with cool overnight lows below freezing.

Snow to our south

Heavy wet snow brought down trees in Sate College, PA. Photo from AccuWeather

It has been quite the stormy week to our south and east as two storms have moved up the east coast of the US and Canada. A third one is currently developing along the Carolina coast while storm 2 moves towards Newfoundland, so lets begin there. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for interior sections of the province for 15-20cm of heavy wet snow before it ends Saturday. Winds will be very strong over the entire province, gusting to 120km/h along the coast and 80km/h inland. This will be the second major storm this week to affect the province with a third poised to arrive late Sunday.

Along the eastern seaboard of the US coastal flooding has been reported from North Carolina to New Hampshire. High surf has been driven by gale force winds and is piling water up along the coastlines. This will continue at least through Sunday. There is the potential for some major flooding. Inland heavy record October snow has been falling across the mountains of Pennsylvania and southern New York with rain mixed with snow in the valleys. The highest mountain tops have recorded over 10 inches of wet snow while the lower elevations have as much as 4 inches. Tree damage is widespread. More snow is expected this weekend from the third storm.

In Montreal we remain on the extreme northwest edge of the cloud shield. It has been cold enough for snow and a chilly northeast wind is blowing reminding us of the storm to our southeast. Montreal this morning was at -2C while Kemptville was -4C. Some surrounding areas were as cold as -6C. I have been reading a few forecast discussions, and there is still some uncertainty as to the impact on our region of the third storm Saturday. It appears it too will move far to the east and produce only some flurries in Vermont and northern New York with scattered clouds in Montreal. That may change but so far the weekend forecast looks fair but chilly for Quebec and Ontario.

Storms stay to the east

The fist few snowflakes of the season were in the air in Montreal yesterday afternoon. Montreal managed a chilly 4C for a high temperature with a low of 0C at 6am this morning. Cloud cover and breezy northeast winds meant little to no frost in Montreal. Portions of eastern Ontario, including Kemptville had a hard freeze last night, -4C with general frost, and an end to the growing season.

Two strong east coast storms are in the weather news this morning. Nor’easter 1 moved from coastal North Carolina towards Newfoundland and intensified rapidly. The storm dumped 67mm of rain on Bonavista and 47mm of rain including 5.2cm of wet snow on St. John’s. Winds were fierce with a peak gust at 157km/h on the Sea Rose Oil Platform, 133km/h at Bonavista and 98km/h at Twillingate. Trees and power lines were toppled in the region.

A second storm is currently developing along the Carolina coast and has pushed precipitation as far north as New York and Pennsylvania this morning. Heavy rain and interior mountain wet snow is expected along the track and to the west of the storm as it moves towards Atlantic Canada by Saturday. So far Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect from interior Pennsylvania across the southern tier of New York State. Up to a foot of wet snow is expected at the highest elevations. This early wet snow is capable of damaging trees that still contain most of their leaves. Coastal flood watches and gale warnings are in effect along the east coast from the Outer Banks northward to Maine. There are still some uncertainties in the track of the system, but showers and flurries are now forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday. Stay tuned for more info on the new storm later today.

Frosty Morning

Area temperatures dipped below freezing this morning with widespread frost everywhere, with the exception of the immediate shorelines of the St. Lawrence River and downtown Montreal where a light breeze prevented dew and thus frost.

Temperatures are -1C in Montreal and -2C at Kemptville and Ottawa. Yesterday snow fell in many areas across the region including the Townships and into northern New England. Mount Washington, New Hampshire, known for having some of the most wicked weather on the planet, had nearly 7.5" (18cm) of snow along with temperatures of 12.5F (-14C) and winds over 50mph. Blowing snow and cold wind chills are producing mid-winter conditions on the summit this morning, with visibility at 50 feet! I put an awesome link to their website on the left hand side of my blog. Check it out, it is worth the visit.

The weekend weather looks interesting in New England and eastern Quebec into the Maritimes as the first nor'easter of the season may whip up and move across the region. There are some indications of snow, rain and strong winds. The models are all over the place as far as Montreal is concerned, but eastern parts of Maine, the Gaspe and into Atlantic Canada will definitely see heavy precipitation and winds in excess of 90km/h. I will post more on that later today. Remember that frost warnings remain in effect again tonight for the entire region. I imagine that most people have ended the flower and gardening season by now, but if not take the necessary precautions to protect your plants from the sub-zero readings. It will be colder tonight, well below zero in all areas including metro Montreal (-3C).

Cold weather this week

The ground is white in the Eastern Townships of southern Quebec this morning.

Depending on where you are in the metro region this morning you are either experiencing a cold rain or wet snow. The ground is white across the Laurentians and in the Eastern Townships. It is snowing steadily in Sherbrooke at 0C with light snow being reported in St. Agathe with a temperature at zero. The snow is staying on the ground across the highest elevations but melting elsewhere. There are slick spots if you are travelling across the region including Quebec Highway's 15 and 10 and the Interstates across Vermont and especially northern New Hampshire where a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for 5-10cm of snow above 1000 feet. This would include any travel on Interstate 91.

In Ontario the wet weather may have been a factor in a major accident involving a semi on Highway 401 at the Lancaster exit in the eastbound lanes. The OPP are reporting that the truck, carrying a load of paper rolls, is on its side and an extensive clean up is underway. Traffic is being detoured onto the northbound service road (SD&G County Road 2) till further notice.

The rain in will continue most of the morning in Montreal and Eastern Ontario and it will be very cool only reaching about 5C. Frost Warnings are in effect for tonight in as it cools well below freezing in all regions. Temperatures will fall from -1C to as cold as -6C overnight. Wednesday and the balance of the work week will be sunny but chilly.

Record cold, snow & frost - October?

Despite the chilly and windy weather, the colours look awesome and the sunshine inviting in Montreal today.

Cold arctic air continues to pour into western Canada and across the border into the Rockies and northern plain states. Numerous record low temperatures fell yesterday across the prairies and temperatures are not expected to get above freezing today. It is currently -5C in Calgary, and they will drop to -14C Monday morning. Banff was -19C this morning. All time record lows for October are tumbling across the west. Snow has been falling along the Trans Canada Highway from Calgary east towards northwest Ontario. Portions of the highway were closed in Manitoba as gusty winds and heavy snow made travel impossible, Stretches of the highway remain icy today. Over 15cm of snow fell in southern Manitoba with as much as 25cm locally. The same cold air mass and storm system produced heavy snow across the Rockies in Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. Portions of Interstate 70 were closed and the MLB Playoff Game between the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies was cancelled last night., They will try Agni tonight when it should be a much milder 9C as opposed to -2C and snow last night.

In eastern Ontario and southern Quebec it is windy and chilly today, but skies have cleared and will remain that way into Monday before the plains storm moves east. Frost Warnings have been issued for all of southern Quebec and I expect a general frost tonight with temperatures lowering to 0C in the city. A cold soaking rain is expected Tuesday before windy and cold conditions to end the week with some flurries. Meanwhile the west will warm up with temperatures returning to above normal by the end of the week.

Weekend Weather

Happy Thanksgiving

Low pressure and its associated fronts will produce a grey and wet Friday across all of our area today. Rainfall will be light but steady this morning before a midday break and then more rain along the cold front this evening. Saturday will be showery with afternoon clearing and temperatures around 10C. Sunday looks windy and cold with temperatures remaining in the single digits. Thanksgiving Monday at this time looks like the best of the three days with some sunshine and slightly milder temperatures.

It is frigid across Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta this morning. I was checking the radar and snow is falling across eastern Saskatchewan into the Parklands of Manitoba. it is windy with blowing snow at several locations. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for west central Manitoba for 20-30cm of snow. Behind the low pressure, temperatures have plummeted to record lows for October. It is -9C in Assiniboia, SK and -13C in Cypress Hills, SK to name a few. It is no warmer in Alberta with Calgary at -10C and Edmonton at -7C. A very chilly weekend is forecast with a few all time October record lows falling tonight in Saskatchewan and Montana.

Have a safe holiday weekend and be thankful for all you have.

Much colder

Today will be sunny and mild for early October, the most pleasant day of the week. Low pressure over the mid Mississippi valley will push northeast and pass south of the region on Friday. More rain is expected with breezy conditions. Yesterday nearly 22mm of rain fell on Montreal, most of it in the afternoon as thunderstorms developed along a sharp cold front. Winds gusted up to 50km/h in Quebec and over 100km/h in Ontario.

Another storm system will pass through the region on Saturday night, and usher in the coldest air of the season thus far. Temperatures will struggle to make it to 8C next week with overnight lows below freezing. Frost and even some flurries are possible. Today, that same system is producing snow and windy conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some parts of Saskatchewan will see 5-10cm of wet snow with 50-70km/h winds possible. Driving may become tricky in the eastern part of the province tonight especially south of the Trans Canada Highway.

Strong Winds

A real cute picture from weather.com taken by KD in Potsdam, NY this past weekend.

A gusty low pressure area over Quebec this morning will rapidly move east dragging a cold front across the area by noon. The front has already produced thunderstorms and strong winds in New York and Ontario. Radar this morning is showing strong thunderstorms over upstate New York and more storms moving off Lakes Erie and Ontario. Winds are gusting over 90km/h including 98km/h at Port Colborne in the last hour. Winds will gust to 50km/h in Montreal with the risk of steady showers and some storms this morning, before a partial clearing later today. The temperatures will be in the 12 to 15C range.

Rain & Wind

The storm that arrives tomorrow dumped heavy snow across the Rockies this week in both the US and Canada

Big changes are in the air as we head into Thanksgiving weekend. A potent low pressure area is organizing over the plains states and is expected to move northeast towards Michigan and east into Quebec while deepening. Rain will overspread the region tonight and continue into Wednesday. Close to 25mm of rain is possible in many areas, with embedded thunderstorms. Winds will become a factor as well on Wednesday and may reach advisory level in Ontario and western New York, with gusts over 80 km/h. It will be windy in southern Quebec as well, exceeding 60km/h in Montreal. We will get a break on Thursday with partly sunny skies and mild temperatures before another storm moves in for Friday. Behind that storm much colder air will pour into the region and some snow is possible off the Great Lakes into Sunday. I will post more on that later in the week. Next week will be sharply colder and we will likely have a general frost ending what is left of the growing season.

Grey Monday

A trough of low pressure is expected to sweep across the area today with showers and thunderstorms. Sunday turned out to be a delightful day in the St. Lawrence Valley after Saturday's rain. Most areas had several ours of sunshine with light south winds and warm temperatures for October. It was an ideal day for viewing the fall foliage which is starting to reach peak in the mountains and approaching 35-40% in the valleys. Last night the seasons waged a little battle with a spectacular Harvest Moon rising over the city followed by some thunder and lightning later on in the evening. Today we can expect cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms developing by noon. More showers Tuesday as well, before rain on Wednesday. The next sunshine will not arrive until Thursday.

The first snow of the year blanketed parts of Alberta on the weekend. 10-15cm of snow fell along the spine of the Rockies in western Alberta with lesser amounts in the foothills, and only a couple of centimeters on grass and cars in Calgary. This morning the temperature is 1C and snowing in Calgary and -1C in Edmonton, but clear.

Flurries

Traffic slows for water accumulation on Highway 15 south during heavy showers Tuesday afternoon.

There is plenty to talk about on this first day of October. As the months change there is a real feeling that the seasons have changed as well. Yesterday, as I expected, the temperature struggled to reach 10C. We won’t get there today as more clouds and drizzle remain from that stubborn low pressure area north of Montreal, and hold out temperature to around 9C. It is between 3 and 5C this morning in the region with even a flurry in the air in places. Some snow fell yesterday at Stowe and Jay Peak, Vermont and across the highest elevations of the Adirondacks. Snow also fell across the west in Colorado and Utah as another area of low pressure moves across the central US. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are occurring east of the low and snow and cold west of it. This is a sure sign of a fall weather pattern as the low pressure areas become more intense. That system will move towards the east coast over the weekend with rain in Montreal Saturday and showers Sunday.

Fall & October arrive together

Monday's storm pushed water off Lake Erie onto lake shore roads in Buffalo.
(Buffalo News photo)

A month that started off with shorts, sunshine and 30C weather is ending as it should with car heaters, fireplaces, warm coats and only 6C this morning. It really feels like fall today. Upper level low pressure continues to swirl around southern Quebec this morning. A cold front passed through the region overnight, with a wind shift and a noticeable drop in temperatures. It will remain cloudy and cool today with sprinkles and even some mountain snow showers. Temperatures will struggle to hit the 10C mark. Any sunny breaks will be very limited. It will remain cloudy and cool Thursday, before a few breaks Friday morning. Then, it appears the weekend will be wet and chilly. Strong low pressure is expected to organize across the plains and move east towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Indications are that more than 25mm of rain could fall this weekend. So just remember the happy thoughts of the first 15 days of September when not even a raindrop could be found. Incidentally the month recovered nicely in the rainfall department. 44.2mm has fallen in Montreal with all of that since the 15th, and half of it in the last 3 days. The normal rainfall for the month is 92.6mm.

Wild weather day

Dark clouds and gusty winds greet rush hour traffic on the Champlain Bridge in Montreal.

Wild weather moved across the entire region today from central and western New York across Ontario and into southwest Quebec. A cold front associated with an intense early fall storm swept across the Great Lakes with heavy thunderstorms fierce winds and heavy rain. Winds gusted over 100km/h most of the afternoon along both sides of the Lake Erie shoreline. The water level along the Buffalo shore rose almost 7.5 feet above normal sending water onto some roads close to the lake. Heavy lake effect rain and thunderstorms then swept the region around the supper hour causing flooding and trapping several motorists on Buffalo highways. Numerous trees came down and power was out to over 10,000 homes.

In Ontario winds were recorded at 105km/h at Long Point, 100km/h at Port Colborne and Point Petree. Elsewhere they gusted close to 80km/h. In southern Quebec the front raced across the region around 6:30pm with swirling clouds, small hail and gusty winds. The core of the strongest winds will remain in Ontario and New York as the low pressure slowly lifts into central Quebec. The balance of the week will be cool, breezy and unsettled, very fall like.

Windy & cooler

A warm front has lifted north of Montreal this morning. The low clouds, fog and drizzle should end shortly and then some sunny breaks may even appear. We should reach 20C, quite mild for late September. It will be short lived. The first really strong low pressure area of the fall season is moving southeast towards Buffalo, NY. This should slowly pass south of our area this week. A strong cold front will push across Ontario and Quebec today with strong winds, showers and thunderstorms. Winds are already gusting over 70km/h along Lake Erie, including 73km/h at Long Point. Wind warnings are in effect including the GTA, for winds over 80km/h. Warnings are also in effect for western NY. There is also a Lakeshore Flood Watch posted for Lake Erie. As a result of the shallow lake being whipped by southwest winds, flooding may occur on the eastern and northern shore lines later today. The balance of the week will be unsettled with showers, windy and much cooler. A few snowflakes may even occur over the highest elevations around our area.

Big changes on the way

Change is in the air: After a beautiful Saturday, clouds begin to shade the sun in Plattsburgh, NY yesterday afternoon. ValleyWeather Photo

What has seemed like a bonus extra month of summer this September across most of Canada is about to come to an end. A potent cold front is sweeping across the country from the Prairies across Ontario and into Quebec by late tomorrow. Strong winds, showers and thunderstorms and much cooler temperatures are accompanying this front. Parts of Saskatchewan have fallen from the mid 30's Friday into the single digits today, including 1C at Cypress Hills Provincial Park with winds over 50km/h. Wind warnings are in effect for gusts over 80km/h. This front will arrive in Montreal late Monday with strong wind and showers as well as a scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures near 20C on Monday, will do no better than 13C or so for Tuesday and even cooler on Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service in Burlington, we may even see a snowflake or two across the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. We knew it had to arrive sooner or later.

50/50 Weekend

This morning it truly feels like fall. For the first time this September, there is a chill in the air. A front drifted south of the region overnight, and north winds have taken over. It will remain chilly today with high temperatures no better than to 16C. Tonight will be clear and cold with a good chance of frost in most areas away from the city. Frost and freeze warnings are in place across portions of New England already. Temperatures will nudge very close to the freezing point. Saturday will be an ideal September day for any outdoor activity, sunny and a high of 19C. Low pressure will approach our region from the Midwest US on Sunday. Skies will be cloudy with rain expected. Next week will become very unsettled with much cooler weather and the chance of showers and some storms and windy. A fall pattern is developing as we head for October.


Today CJAD Meteorologist Ed Cowell is retiring after 34 years on Montreal radio. He spent 20 of those at CJAD, and has been a meteorologist for over 45 years. I had the privilege of meeting him back in 1991 when he gave me a tour o the weather office at Dorval Airport here in Montreal. Ed is a true gentleman and very professional meteorologist. Thanks Ed for all the weather information over the years and enjoy your retirement.
Above right: Ed Cowell - Montreal Gazette photo.

Warm start to fall

The pumpkins are ready! A sign of the seasons at this IGA store on the West Island.

It is already 20C (humidex 26C) this morning in Montreal on the way to 23C. That is well above the normal daytime high of 18C and it is only 8am. Fall arrived yesterday at 5:18pm and there are some signs that the seasons are changing. The leaves are slowly turning, some areas have had frost, and the likelihood of a hard frost or even a freeze exists into next week as much colder air is forecast to invade the region by Tuesday.

Yesterday's showers dropped about 10.4mm on Montreal as tropical air and moisture was in place. That brings our monthly total to 14.6mm, or less than half of the normal precipitation. We should get some more decent showers today as a cold front is just north of the Ottawa Valley this morning. Radar is showing some heavy showers and embedded thunder moving south towards the St. Lawrence River.

Today marks the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo striking the South Carolina coast and racing north down the St. Lawrence Valley and through Montreal. Heavy rain fell north of the city, while south of the system in Montreal high winds and very warm and muggy air was in place. We reached 29C and only dropped to the low twenties overnight. Winds gusted to 70km/h in the valley knocking down trees and cutting power. I was working for the Gazette at the time driving at night. It was interesting night working, seeing first hand some of the power of this fast moving storm. Hugo maintained tropical storm status well inland. I have never seen clouds moving so fast before or since Hugo. The storm caused billions in damage and killed 49 people along its path.

Happy Fall

I am still crunching the numbers, but we may have just, at this very minute, finished the most dismal summer in decades. Fall has arrived here on the east coast as of 5:19pm. Appropriately summer ended with showery weather, however it continues quite mild and very humid today as well. Warm and moist tropical air is streaming north from the Gulf states and will continue through mid week with some more showers Wednesday, and maybe even a rumble of thunder. It will continue warm with a high of 25C. Happy Autumn everyone!

Pleasent week

Warm south winds greeted travelers at this truck stop in Cornwall, Ontario yesterday afternoon. SB Photo

The spectacular late summer weather will continue in our area into this week. September has been a remarkable month across most of Canada but especially in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Very little rainfall has combined with above normal temperatures and record sunshine to make us forget about our terrible summer. This week the region will have above normal temperatures, near 25C for the next three days before a cooling trend with rain into next weekend. This past weekend featured cool temperatures and frost, but brilliant sunshine, the third weekend this month with near perfect weather.

While the weather has been great here, it has not been so good across the US southeast. Many areas have had 6 to 8 consecutive days of rain with over 10 inches of rain falling in some areas. Flooding is widespread across metro Atlanta and many other parts of the deep south. Low pressure over the southern Appalachians is drawing tropical moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The system will continue to slowly move east over the next few days. Meanwhile the remains of Hurricane Fred are located about 250 miles east of Cape Hatteras. While no redevelopment is expected at this time, it is still expected to produce some rough surf, in conjunction with our strong high pressure, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms moving inland over Carolina's during the next day or so.

Weekend Weather

Radar is showing a gusty cold front moving across the St. Lawrence Valley this morning. The front is producing the first appreciable rain of the month in Montreal, (only 0.4mm to date at Dorval) right at the morning rush. The heavy showers will move southeast of the region, followed by a second line later this morning. Skies should clear by noon with a windy and chilly afternoon and evening. The weekend will be sunny, dry and seasonable with temperatures near 18C. Overnight lows will be cold enough for frost north and south of Montreal and in rural areas of central and eastern Ontario. Monday will be very warm for September, a high of 26C for the last full day of summer 2009. Summer had a nice recovery thanks to September.

Speaking of heat, Saskatchewan was baking yesterday. Numerous record highs were smashed including 37C (100F) in Rosetown. That was after an overnight low of 11C or a whopping 49 degree Fahrenheit difference. What a temperature range for a 12 hour period. The previous record was 31.5C set in 1981. Other records included Moose Jaw, Swift Current and Leader. Temperatures in Gravelbourg and Assiniboia were around 33C. More heat is expected this weekend before a slight cooling trend next week.

Warm west - cool east

Spectacular late summer weather is occurring across western Canada, with dozens of record highs tied or broken yesterday including 32C in Edmonton and 34C at Brooks. It will be a little cooler in Alberta today, but hot in Saskatchewan and the northern plains. Temperatures in those areas will rise above 30C again and well into the 30's over the weekend before cooling off next week.

Ontario and Quebec will feel a little more fall like on the last weekend of the summer. Temperatures will be near or slightly above 20C with sunshine. The only rain will be some brief showers Friday morning along a cold front. It will be breezy behind the front with cool overnight lows and frost, especially off island to the north and in rural areas of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Last night the temperature dipped to -1C at Mt Tremblant and 5C at St. Hubert, 7C at Dorval and 5C as well in Kemptville, ON.. A sure sign of things to come.

More sunshine

Yesterday's cold front barely wet the rain gauge in most of southern Quebec. There were some isolated areas that had some pretty good downpours last evening, but they were very short in nature. One shower went across the south shore at around 7:15pm last night, and it was the first rain of the month with some lightning as well. The front passed rapidly south of the valley followed by clearing. Only 0.4 mm fell at Dorval and that is the monthly total to September 15. A little more rain fell across eastern Ontario with 6.7 mm at Kemptville, and 9.6 mm at Ottawa. Today will be a little cooler with mostly sunny skies and a few afternoon cloudy periods. It will remain dry through Friday.

Some much needed mositure today

The shadows are getting longer as September moves along. This is the sun setting in Lancaster, ON. last week.

The lawns are beginning to turn brown, and I noticed a rapid acceleration in the turning of the leaves in the last week or so. Normally the fall foliage begins to appear as a result of the decrease in daylight as we move from August into September. The changing of the leaves can be enhanced by frost or in this case no precipitation at all. Today will mark day 15 of no rain in the Montreal area. That is expected to change on this Monday, as clouds are on the increase from the west and a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder can be expected by noon. The catalyst for the showers is a cold front slipping southward from central Quebec. The front will also return temperatures back to below normal for a good portion of this work week (17C Tuesday). After the showers today, there will be another shot of showers Tuesday afternoon, before a sunny, cool and "fall like" balance of the week.

The weekend was splendid with warm temperatures and sunshine. There were a few more clouds in the region Sunday, but it was still pleasant for late summer. The entire country has enjoyed decent weather of late with the exception of southern Manitoba where heavy rain late last week caused some flooding. Some areas had between 100-200mm of rain. In Alberta and Saskatchewan late summer record warmth occurred with nearly a dozen temperature records broken including 27C at Edmonton yesterday.

Another glorious weeekend

Please take time to remember today.

Strong high pressure is blocking the weather over most of the northern half of the Continent. If you have good weather, like we do, you get to keep it. Sadly if you have poor weather, like the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, you get to keep that as well. This blocking ridge of high pressure will remain in place well into next week. Today is our 12th day in a row with no precipitation and abundant sunshine in Montreal, including the entire month of September to date. I am attempting to find out some information on total sunshine hours for Montreal for September, and just how close we are to establishing a record here. The best I could find this morning, is that on average, Montreal records 174.6 hours of sunshine for the entire month. That works out to about 46.3% of the total daylight hours. Considering that we are somewhere between 90 to 95% sunshine so far, I would say a record is in there somewhere. The next chance for any precipitation will not come before next Thursday. It will remain very warm as well, 24C tomorrow and 27C on Sunday. Enjoy!

What a September

What can you say about a month that is now 10/10. September 10 just happens to be the 10th consecutive dry and sunny day in Montreal. The precipitation at the airport for the month, 0 mm. This trend has been provided to us by very strong high pressure anchored over Quebec. The days have been sunny and warm and the much longer September nights starlit and cool. All the nasty weather is being kept well to our south across the middle Atlantic region and Ohio Valley. There is some indication that a warm front will lift north of the St. Lawrence Valley on the weekend with scattered showers on Saturday. That may end our consecutive streak, but not the nice weather. Next week looks sunny and warm again, all week. It will start on Sunday, with a sunny 27C day. That is better than 90% of the weekends were this past summer. Imagine that!

Labour Day

Sailing on Lake Champlain while the fall colors begin to show near Rouses Point, N.Y. today. (The photo is taken from the New York side of the lake, with Grand Isle, Vermont as the background)

It was truly a spectacular long weekend to close out the summer of 2009. Today marks the 7th consecutive day of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. It will continue into the start of this work week with showers expected by the middle portion of the week. The nice weather was limited to eastern Ontario and most of Quebec. The further southwest you went the nastier the weather became. Low pressure across the Ohio Valley and a "tropical like" system on the Carolina coast are combining to produce copious amounts of rain from the Midwest across the the middle Atlantic region. Portions of the Carolina coast including the Outer Banks have reported between 3-5 inches of rain today. Some areas along the Crystal coast near Wilmington, NC, have had as much as 8 inches of rain with flood warnings in effect. The system, will slowly move northeast along the coast tonight and exit the region.

The best weather of summer

Strong high pressure over the northeastern US will guarantee the best stretch of weather this summer in eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec. It has been sunny since Monday and will continue that way well into next week, including the entire holiday weekend. Temperatures will be above normal, around 25C for highs and down to 12 to 14C for lows. The only blip on the radar is a weak backdoor cold front late Saturday that may produce a sprinkle, a cloud and a wind shift, otherwise, brilliant sunshine abounds. There may also be some patchy fog overnight towards morning. The nights are getting longer and the dew is forming. The quick drop in overnight temperatures after a warm day aides in the development of fog, especially in river valleys.

Monday morning again

Some of the action from the NASCAR Canadian Tire Series yesterday before the rain.

Hard to believe it is August 31. I won't go into a rant about how terrible a summer it was, but, really on all levels for me, it may have been the worst. It ended yesterday with rain on the NAPA 200 at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal. For the second year in a row the race began under sunny skies and ended in the rain. There were a record number of cautions in the exciting (but wet) 74 lap affair, that actually went 76 laps, and driver Carl Edwards passed Marcos Ambrose on the final curve to record the victory. I sat at turn 10, until the rain came that is. I would have really preferred a dry race.

Over the weekend the remains of tropical storm Danny were absorbed into low pressure over Atlantic Canada. The storm produced copious amounts of rainfall, in many cases more than Hurricane Bill last weekend. Sydney had 104mm, Saint John, NB, 108mm and Summerside, PEI, 106mm. Halifax recorded a peak wind gust of 91km/h while Wreckhouse, NFLD had 152km/h winds. Nearly 17,000 were left without power in Nova Scotia alone, and flooding was widespread across that province and into New Brunswick.

This back to school week in the region will feature strong high pressure, maybe the strongest of the summer, go fiugure! Sunny skies all week with cool overnights and warm days. High temperatures will range from 20 to 25C. Time to wash the car.

Lets be safe out there as our children return to school. Slow Down!

Weekend Forecast

A couple of low pressure systems to our west combined with moisture from Tropical Storm Danny moving up the eastern coast will provide the area with abundant moisture over the weekend. Showers and gusty winds will develop overnight tonight and persist into Sunday in Montreal and eastern Ontario.

Meanwhile Danny remains disorganized and may not reach hurricane strength. The storm is expected to move just off the North Carolina coast and northeastwards towards Nova Scotia. The only warnings in place at this time is a Tropical Storm Watch for The Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras to Duck.

Danny update and FROST!

In what has seemed like the shortest and coolest summer ever, frost is in the forecast. Arctic high pressure will crest over the region tonight and the likelihood of scattered frost away from the metro areas and waterways is very possible. Frost Advisories are in effect for central Quebec and the Adirondacks of central New York. Last night Montreal dropped to 9C while Kemptville reached 6C. The cool air will move east on Friday as a warm front moves into the region.

The weekend forecast is up in the air at the moment. A trough of low pressure will slide east from the Great Lakes, and give the region a chance of showers both Saturday and Sunday. The showers could turn into a full blown rainstorm if Tropical Storm Danny comes close to the US coast. However, at this time, each computer run is pushing the storm track further to the east. There is still great uncertainty in the forecast strength and track. We will have to keep an eye on the storm. The greatest risk for a direct impact is from Cape Hatteras north to Newfoundland, with the fringe affects being felt across interior New England and southern and eastern Quebec, New Brunswick and PEI. Stay tuned!

Danny

Tropical storm Danny has developed 775 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras. The storm has 45 mph winds with a slow increase in intensity forecast. Danny could become a hurricane and threaten the east coast from New Jersey to Atlantic Canada by the weekend. This could become a very interesting weather story. More later today.

Tropical Storm Danny?

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."

Senator Edward M. Kennedy

We may have a tropical system developing in the Atlantic today just east of the Bahamas. The storm is forecast to become Danny later today and may threaten the eastern seaboard with heavy rain and wind this weekend. It will bear watching and may influence our weather. That is not good news with the NASCAR race set for this weekend.

I am sorry for not mentioning that incredible severe weather outbreak in Ontario last Thursday. A total of 8 tornadoes and funnel clouds were recorded including an unprecedented three F-2 storms. The storms caused severe damage in many locations including Vaughan and Newmarket north or the GTA. One fatality occurred and several injuries. Numerous homes were destroyed.

Here is the official wrap up by Environment Canada...

Shortly after noon a supercell storm developed just south of Lake
Huron. This cell tracked northeastward for a remarkable 200 km
producing the Durham and Thornbury tornadoes. The storm cell
Finally weakened over Georgian Bay toward evening.

At the same time a squall line developed over lower Michigan then
tracked across Southern Ontario during the afternoon and evening
hours. This feature produced straight line wind damage to several
locales from Windsor to well northeast of Toronto as well as the
destructive Vaughan and Newmarket tornadoes.

Finally in the early evening isolated supercell storms tracked
To the east of Georgian Bay. One tracked northeastward to produce a
probable tornado over the area between Arnstein and North Bay as
well as a waterspout over lake Nipissing.

Another tornado tracked through the Gravenhurst area before lifting.
This storm or one near spawned a tornado that went through the
Redstone Lake and Kennisis Lake district. This brings the total thus
far for the August 20 storms to 8 confirmed tornadoes, 1 probable
tornado and 2 possible tornadoes.

There was one fatality with the tornado in the south end of Durham.
Several of the tornadoes were rated as f2 damage on the Fujita
Scale. F2 damage is equivalent to wind strength of 180 to 250 km/h.

The following is a list of tornadoes and associated damage assessed
by a total of five separate Environment Canada storm damage teams.

Cooler weather ahead

We have had a pleasant stretch of weather here in eastern Ontario and western Quebec. The sunshine has been accompanied by some showers scattered about but it has been warm and humid. Temperatures have been in the upper twenties. That is about to change as a cooler air mass from western Canada settles into the region later this week. The cooler air should arrive with a few showers on Wednesday followed by sunny and cooler weather for the balance of the work week. It will struggle to reach 20C with a very fall like feeling in the air. I noticed this morning that the dew is a little heavier owing to the longer nights, and also a few leaves are turning and even falling!

The NASCAR Napa 200 race is in Montreal this Sunday. Early indications are that it may rain. I have my fingers crossed it won't, I did not enjoy the rain last year too much, although it did make history as they used rain tires for the first time in a NASCAR points race.

A quick post storm report on Hurricane Bill. The rapid speed of Bill meant he kept his tropical characteristics right into Newfoundland. It also meant that the storms effects were lessened due to his speed. The rainfall and flooding was thus limited. Accumulations ranged from 30-70mm. It fell quickly - in just a few hours but the amounts were less than expected. Winds and waves were very fierce with a peak gust to 132km/h at Cape Race, Newfoundland. There were numerous reports of coastal flooding from the 10 metre plus storm surge and waves. Bill finally made landfall at Point Rosie, Newfoundland on the Burin Peninsula at around midnight Monday, August 24.