Storm hits region

NOAA satellite photo of impressive winter storm early this morning.

10am Update: Heavy snow continues to spread north into the St. Lawrence Valley. Cornwall has visibility less than 1km with gusts of wind over 50km/h and Plattsburgh, N.Y. has near zero visibility in heavy snow. Travel is not advised today. Montreal is currently -5C, northeast wind gusting to 41km/h and 0.8km visibility.

The snow started shortly after 7am this morning on the west end of Montreal Island and is spreading rapidly north and east. The heavy snow is just southwest of our region. Already visibility has gone from 24km to 2km at Trudeau Airport and dropping. Winds are in the 30km/h range and will continue to increase as the morning moves along. The center of the intense low pressure area is approaching Lake Michigan at this hour with a wide swath of heavy precipitation along the (warm front) eastern flank of the storm. The heavy snow will continue all day today across eastern Ontario and western Quebec with he heaviest amounts in the St. Lawrence Valley from Montreal northeast where 25-35cm may fall. Ottawa and eastern Ontario is forecasting 15cm with 10-15cm across New England as a mix of sleet or rain mat occur. It remains very chilly in Montreal at -6C. Winter Storm and Wind Warnings are in effect for the entire region. Precipitation will become more scattered this evening before another burst of heavy snow along a powerful arctic front tonight. This will be followed by strong west winds Thursday from 50-70km/h causing cold wind chills and considerable blowing and drifting snow.

**Visibility is now down to 1km in Montreal as of 8am with winds increasing. School bus service has been canceled across Eastern Ontario and several school boards south of Montreal have canceled classes. Call ahead to the airport as flights are beginning to be delayed as well, especially to Toronto and the Midwest US. Drive slowly today or cancel travel all together.

Winter Storm Update

The big winter storm continues to rapidly deepen as it move northeast across the central plains and into the Midwest. Over 30 States have warnings posted along with three provinces at the moment. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for all of southern and eastern Ontario and southern and Central Quebec. Heavy snow will move from southwest to northeast in the pre dawn hours Wednesday and reach Montreal by mid morning. The snow will fall heavily before mixing with sleet and maybe rain south of the city late in the day. I expect a good 15cm in all regions with 30cm locally. Winds will be fierce gusting 50-90km/h and up over 100km/h in Quebec City. The wind will greatly reduce visibility on area highways and may make travel along the 20 east towards the old capital impossible.

Stats are impressive so far with the storm with wind gusts over 90 mph in the southwest US. Over 250,000 people lost power in Phoenix last night as the cold front associated with the storm roared east. This will be a storm to remember. There is a real threat of power outages in many areas. South of the border in western New York, flooding is even possible along Lake Erie from a storm surge associated with the strong winds.

Here is a quote from the weather discussion out of Quad City, Iowa.

THIS STORM IS IMPRESSIVE. SNOW AMOUNT WISE...IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 10 YEARS SINCE SNOWS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND EXPANSE HAVE BEEN SEEN. STORM STRENGTH IS ANOTHER MATTER. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A 980MB OR BETTER SURFACE LOW...IT HAS PROBABLY BEEN 20 TO 30 YEARS SINCE A WINTER STORM OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE AREA.

I will update the situation early tomorrow morning.

Snowfall Warning

Light snow along the Kemptville Creek in North Grenville yesterday. Just a "warm up" for the main event tomorrow. Photo by J. Kinnear

Environment Canada has posted a snowfall warning for southern and central Quebec for Wednesday. In Ontario for some reason no warnings have been issued yet despite a similar forecast for the St. Lawrence Seaway and Ottawa. I guess with the precipitation primarily falling as rain in the GTA, there appears to be no rush to advise the public of this dangerous winter storm. As the first storm of the year, it will be impressive tracking from Colorado towards Chicago and then north of Montreal. A heavy burst of snow will develop Wednesday morning in southwest Quebec and spread north and east. The snow will mix with sleet and rain in the afternoon in Montreal. Accumulations in our region will be in the order of 15-30cm with 15 at the US border and 30cm in the mountains of New England and north of Montreal. In addition to the snow gusty east winds will approach 60km/h before backing to the northwest Thursday and reach speeds up to 90km/h. The winds will blow around whatever falls.

We are not alone with this storm. Strong winds and heavy snow are falling from Arizona to Illinois with blizzard warnings in effect on the backside of the storm. In the warm sector severe thunderstorms are expected from Texas to Georgia.

Closer to home a Winter Storm warning is in effect for the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, with a Winter Weather Advisory in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley. A High Wind Watch has also been issued for New York and Vermont.
This is a difficult storm to forecast with bitter arctic air to the north and very warm air streaming in aloft. The forecast is very changeable so watch for updates today and prepare for nasty weather.

Storm update

Sorry folks, I am a little late on this update. Things are still on track for a big storm beginning late Tuesday in Ontario and Wednesday in Quebec. This is a difficult forecast because of the track of the system which appears to be from Colorado towards Chicago and then Ottawa. The facts are that it will be an intense low pressure area with lots of moisture (over 1 inch liquid) and very strong winds. It will be followed by the coldest air of the season on Friday. It is possible that Montreal and Ottawa could see 10-20cm of snow followed by mixed precipitation. It is also quite probable that we will have wind gusts approaching 100km/h. There are a slew of warnings out tonight across the US from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. I imagine we will see some watches posted locally by tomorrow morning.

The cold air that will invade our region set several record lows in Alberta this morning including -37.5C in Edmonton shattering the previous record of minus 35C in 1972.

BIG storm this week

The mainstream media is finally picking up on what we have been talking about on this blog for a week, the first big winter storm for southern Quebec. While many parts of the country are already having mid winter weather, such as the Prairies and the region around the snowbelts of Lake Huron, we have been relatively mild and snow free. A burst of flurrie activity overnight put down 1-2cm of snow across our area. Another weak area of low pressure will move across the valley this afternoon with another 1-3cm of very light fluffy snow. This is just a warm up for what lies ahead. Tuesday will be the calm before the storm as high pressure dominates with clear and cool weather.

975mb Low
Low pressure will emerge from the southern Rockies and move to near Chicago on Wednesday and just north of Montreal on Thursday. This low is expected to intensify rapidly to a 975mb low. The intense storm will produce heavy precipitation north and east of the system. It appears that snow will start across Ontario late Tuesday and spread into Montreal by Wednesday morning. The onset will be all heavy snow with 10-20cm expected before a push of warmer air and a transition to freezing rain and sleet from Montreal south. From Montreal north it should remain all snow with 25cm plus expected. There may even be some rain along the US border. There is still some question as to the track of the system, but the described scenario above is becoming more clear with each computer model run.

Another component of this storm will be fierce winds. Winds will be northeast from 30-60km/h and then backing Thursday to the northwest 50-70km/h and gusty. These winds will cause blowing snow and reduced visibility. Air and road travel will be impacted all over the Northeast, New England, Ontario, Quebec, the Midwest and eventually the Maratimes. Plan your week accordingly.
The next update will be no later than 7pm this evening.

First Snow Alert

Snow in Clagary (left) and Houston. Our turn will be this week.

CBC.ca and the Houston Chronicle.

I have been interested in weather since I was a child growing up in Verdun. I began keeping daily weather records in 1979, yep 30 years ago! I used to go by the name VAWB (Verdun Amateur Weather Bureau). It was a little harder in those days, not the same technology we have now, you really had to watch and understand the weather to make a prediction. One thing I liked to do back then was issue my own warnings for people when I felt the forecasters were being a little cautious. One such warning was only issued once a year, the first snow alert. So today I am warning all my readers and friends, we have a first snow alert posted for Montreal, southwest Quebec and all of eastern and Southern Ontario.

Here is the long played out scenario: First of all the Houston snowstorm will move off the middle Atlantic coast today and hit the Maratimes tonight. The Calgary storm that produced visibilities of less than 1km for over 10 hours will slide just south of Montreal on Monday and produce a general 1-3cm snowfall in our region. Cold air will then pour into the region behind that storm while low pressure begins to organize in the US southwest.

The southwestern storm will then move across the Midwest and to near the lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. This storm will have good atmospheric support, a strong wind field and plenty of moisture as it passes just south of Montreal mid week. Combine that with the newly arrived cold air mass, and we are looking at our first snowstorm potential for Wednesday and Thursday. It is early yet, but successive computer model runs are pointing to s significant winter storm for Ontario and Quebec. Stay tuned folks!

Snow in Houston

Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas today.

Quite the weather event taking place today across the deep south. Snow has been falling in the Houston metro area most of the day with a couple of inches of slushy accumulation reported. Winter weather advisories are in effect and freezing temperatures are expected right down to the Gulf of Mexico. When I checked about an hour ago Galveston was actually colder than Montreal with a reading of 2C and light snow.

The winter weather is being caused by an upper level low that is expected to lift northeast from the gulf states towards Cape Hatteras. Snow will spread across the deep south tonight and northward into the middle Atlantic and southern New England. This will be a coastal event with very little effect here in Montreal. Some light snow may spread into southern Vermont. Nova Scotia has posted winter storm watches for their province. Depending on the exact track of the low pressure, 15-25cm of snow could fall.

Southern Saskatchewan and Alberta are bracing for blizzard conditions tonight as cold air pours into that region. 10-15cm of snow with winds up to 70km/h is expected to produce dangerous travel and zero visibility. As the cold air moves south and east we can expect temperatures to gradually lower in Quebec and Ontario as well over the weekend. It will be a slow process. Snow may affect our region by next Wednesday as another storm lifts out of the US towards the Great Lakes. Speaking of the lakes, snow is falling around them in western New York and central Ontario today. Some portions of upper Michigan saw over a foot of snow yesterday.

Of Note: Houston has had more snowfall than Burlington, Vermont this year to date!

Warm vs Cold

It was a very different weather day today depending on which side of the country you reside. Along the east coast heavy rain and mild temperatures made it feel more like September than December. Dozens of record highs were established for the date in New England including 20C (68F) in Boston and 14C or 57F in Burlington, Vermont. Burlington has yet to have any snow this season which means it is just short of the record for the latest start to winter. That occurred in 1937 when it did not snow till December 7. Winds in the northeast gusted out of the south over 50mph in many areas including Boston. South of Boston at the Blue Hill Observatory a gust to 70 mph was observed.

Montreal was 8C today with about 25mm of rain here on Ile Perrot just southwest of the city. The mild air is being chased out by gusty Northwest winds tonight. It will be cooler this weekend but the main batch of Arctic air will hold off till next week. There is a chance we could see measurable snow on Monday with a greater chance of a storm by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Prairie Blizzard...
In the west it is a very different story. Temperatures struggled today to reach -10C across Alberta and Saskatchewan and they have fallen back tonight to -17C in Regina and -20C in Assiniboia. This is just a taste of what is on the way. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for most of central and southern Alberta for Friday, and they will likely be extended east into Saskatchewan. A strong arctic cold front will slide southeast across the region Friday with intense winds in excess of 50km/h, snowfall of over 15cm and dropping temperatures. Blizzard conditions are likely outside of the major urban areas and travel will be difficult. The front will clear the region and in its wake leave an arctic air mass with temperatures in the minus 20's. It will remain cold all next week.

Heavy Rain Warning

Low pressure with a wide swath of heavy rain is moving north towards Ontario and Quebec tonight. Radar at 10pm is showing bands of very heavy rain with some freezing rain in isolated pockets moving into the region. The heavy rain will begin overnight and taper off late Thursday. Total amounts of 30-40mm are forecast. In addition to the rain strong winds will develop in the St. Lawrence Valley and gust to over 60km/h. Environment Canada has posted a heavy rain warning for Montreal and the surrounding regions. Currently it is 4C on Ile Perrot so I expect straight rain in the region.

Heavy Rain

Snow and cold temper spirits in downtown Regina yesterday.

Low pressure deepening over the Gulf states is expected to lift north across upstate New York over the next 24 hours. The inland track of this storm will guarantee Quebec and eastern Ontario mild air and rain. Today should be sunny and mild with high temperatures around 5C. Clouds will rapidly thicken tonight, and the rain should begin by midnight. Mild air tomorrow will push temperatures to near 10C with a steady rain all day. Indications are that 25-35mm will fall. It will be windy with gusts over 60km/h expected. This would have been a great first snowstorm!

Winter is settling into portions of the country. It has turned sharply colder across the west with snow falling from Calgary eastward towards Winnipeg. Some parts of southeastern Saskatchewan had 15-20cm yesterday, and it was blown around by cold northwest winds over 50km/h. It is bitterly cold this morning with reading in the -10C to -20C range in Alberta and Saskatchewan, including -20C at Stony Rapids. That arctic air mass will move east but modify as it moves into Ontario and Quebec. Temperatures will cool significantly this weekend with flurries possible, especially around the great Lakes. Low temperatures will be in the -7C range with highs staying below freezing at -1C.

First SNOW

Photos of the first accumulating snow of the season
this morning on the West Island of Montreal.

As expected weak low pressure moved across the area overnight and the light rain changed to light snow at around 1am in Montreal. As of 8am about 2cm had accumulated locally with another 1cm or so expected. Roads are slick in spots especially in your own neighborhood, with numerous accidents reported. SLOW DOWN. The snow should end by noon with clearing skies and dropping temperatures to a low of -5C tonight. The balance of the week will be unsettled with another major storm on Thursday. That system will bring rain to the valley but heavy wet snow is possible northwest of Montreal. We will have to nail down the track of the system as each successive computer run is bringing more of a western tack through the region which would mean rain not snow for Montreal. More later today on that system.

137 mph winds!

Well it appears winter is upon us. OK my headline caught your attention. First off the move is complete and I am now back among the cyber living with a new Videotron Cable internet connection and in a new home southwest of Montreal about 50km from the downtown.

Now the winter thingy...that storm on Friday that bombed out moving up the east coast, produced some impressive snowfalls east and south of Montreal. Here in the city not even a flake. We had 15mm or so of rain and gusty winds close to 50km/h at times or about 30mph. Well compare that to Mt. Mansfield where 20 inches of snow fell and winds topped out in the 50mph range. Not enough yet, how about Mt. Washington. They recorded there strongest wind of 2009 with and incredible & unbelievable gust to just over 137mph. (use the link on left to read the observers comments). Combine that with sub zero cold wind chills and nearly 25 inches of snow and you can see it was a storm to be reckoned with.

We are going to see a transition in the weather pattern this week with winter beginning to settle in. It has been a warm November, but as the month draws to a close several fronts and low pressure this week should bring us our first accumulating snow. Tonight showers will develop and change to snow by morning from Ottawa across the Laurentians and into Montreal. A few centimetres may fall north of the city. An even better change of snow will come Thursday as low pressure moves up the Atlantic Coast. Cold air will be established over the St. Lawrence Valley, and snow is expected. How much? Too soon to tell, but be ready for winter weather this week. I will update this situation later today.

By the way today is the Grey Cup in Calgary. The forecast is expected to be ideal for football, partly cloudy and 8C.
GO ALS GO!

GREY CUP CENTRAL

Weekend snow

First off Happy Thanksgiving to all our American friends. Secondly, the move is nearly complete, however thanks to Bell once again, our phone service is delayed. This means no computer connection at the moment from home.

Traditionally this is the time of the year where we begin to see our first accumulating snows in our region. This will be the case this weekend for many portions of Ontario, Quebec, New York and New England. Low pressure developing off the US east coast will move north towards the Maratimes. Steady rain will develop today in most areas with a gusty and chilly northeast wind. Tonight as the temperature lowers the rain will change to wet snow northeast of Quebec City and across the higher elevations of the Townships, Greens and Adirondacks. Look for between 15-25cm of wet snow to accumulate at the highest elevations. Additionally there will be gusty northwest winds developing on the back side of the system. These winds will exceed 50km/h and produce blowing snow. Environment Canada has posted a Heavy Snow Warning for the Townships while a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Dacks and Greens.

In the lee of Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario, a round of lake effect snow is possible late Friday into Saturday. In Montreal a cold rain today will taper off to a few flurries Saturday with a gusty Northwest wind of up to 60km/h.

If you are travelling south today for the US holiday or Black Friday, keep in mind that travel will become poor on many roadways across Vermont, New York and southern Quebec. The low pressure is expected to bomb out (rapidly intensify) near Portland, Maine tonight and move into Atlantic Canada with very strong winds and heavy precipitation.

Week of transition

It was a busy weekend as valleyweather moves from the south shore of Montreal to the just off the western tip of the Island of Montreal about 50km to the west. It will take a few days to get things properly up and running so the blog entries may be a little small.

This truly is a week of transition both personally and in the weather. The week will start off sunny and mild, although this "dirty" high pressure system continues to allow for low clouds and fog to form in the past 24 hours, this should burn off shortly. Temperatures continue well above normal for November, close to 8C. By Wednesday the first in a series of low pressure areas will begin to affect the region. Showers are expected from Wednesday into the US Thanksgiving holiday. By Thursday low pressure organizing along the Carolina coast will move north towards Long Island. Precipitation in the form of rain will spread inland from south to north across Vermont and New York and into Quebec and Ontario. At first rain is expected, but as cold air moves into the region from the north, we expect the rain to mix with and change to snow Friday night. It is very early in the forecast period, but be advised that colder weather and some snow is in the extended forecast. More on this later in the week.

Weekend Forecast

An active but fairly weak weather pattern is upon us this Friday morning. A frontal system has produced some rain and drizzle this morning in Montreal. This will slowly taper to showers for the balance of the day. Strong southwest winds will develop along and ahead of the associated cold front and will produce gusts up to 70km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley by noon. Skies will remain cloudy tonight and most of Saturday before high pressure gives us a clear and cool night Saturday. Sunday at this time looks sunny before another system moves of the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures this weekend will be near normal with highs near 5 or 6C and lows just below freezing. Any fog that forms Saturday night could freeze on surfaces, keep this in mind when driving. This week, ice fog in Montreal resulted in several serious accidents. SLOW DOWN!
The system that is currently taking shape along the Gulf Coast will be another decent storm for the eastern seaboard. At this time the system is forecast to move along the gulf this weekend and up the east coast of the U.S. on Monday. Montreal will remain on the extreme western flank of the precipitation. From 1-3 inches of rain is expected along the track with gusty winds and high surf, but nowhere near as bad as Ida was last week. However keep in mind that tremendous damage was done to the dunes and beaches, and any high surf is causing problems in the Carolina's north to New Jersey, especially the Outer Banks.

More information on this storm over the weekend. Be safe.

Slippery commute

The fog rolls in just after sunrise this morning along the Lakeshore in Montreal. The conditions made roads very slippery.

A little taste of winter this morning along the St. Lawrence Valley here in Montreal. After a brilliant sunrise just before 7am, the temperature lowered to dew point temperature and dense fog began to rapidly form along the riverfront. The fog spread across the region and deposited a thin layer of moisture that froze on contact with bridges and overpasses. The result was several serious accidents and a very slow commute in the Montreal region. At 6am this morning Trudeau Airport reported 24km visibility with clear skies. As of 9am we were down to 0.8km visibility with ice fog being recorded by the observer. Roads, especially elevated surfaces, remain slippery. Caution is advised this morning while traveling until about noon when the sun will burn off the fog.

Rare November weather

Out of the fog: The tropical air mass from the east coast storm produced high dew points and plenty of fog in Montreal this past weekend. The photo is of the St. Lawrence Seaway early Sunday.

Strong high pressure is dominating the weather in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario this week with abundant sunshine in what should be the cloudiest month of the year. Temperatures will be near normal, 6C during the day and just below freezing at night. The next chance of rain will come by Friday.

Yesterday we had some wild weather across the middle portion of the continent. While it was snowing heavily in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado, northern Alberta had record highs. Portions of northeast Kansas had nearly a foot of snow with 8 inches in Denver. Meanwhile Edmonton shattered their record high, reaching 14C breaking the previous high of 10.9C set in 2001. There were several other record highs in northern Alberta as well.

Rainy Saturday

Clouds are rapidly thickening up as the moisture shield from the remains of Ida nudges across northern New England and into southern Quebec this morning. The main wind has remained along the immediate coast from Maryland north to Maine with just a northeast wind up to 20km/h in Montreal. Gusts to 45mph are possible along the immediate coast. Inland the rain may accumulate from 15-25mm (1 inch) locally and taper to showers tonight. The center of the storm has moved east off the coast of North Carolina, and is well removed from the moisture. The surf is slowly subsiding along the coast, but not after producing record damage in some locations.

Bill left me a comment below directing me to an incredible site with awesome pictures of the recent storm damage on Hatteras Island in the Village of Rodanthe. The subject of many of the photos is a home named Serendipity which was the main star in the film Nights in Rodanthe. I have taken numerous pictures of the house myself and walked that very beach several years in a row. None of my photos come close to these amazing pictures that Bryan Elkus has taken.

Have a look here http://www.bryanelkus.com/

Coastal storm stays south

Above: The cloud deck from the coastal storm and smog along with a thick frost along the South Shore of Montreal this morning. Below: The remains of Ida form a big coastal storm off the mid-Atlantic coast.

The big east coast storm that continues to batter the region from the Carolina's north to New Jersey will begin edging towards our region today. Already sat photos are showing the cloud deck moving into southern Quebec. Clouds will continue to lower over the next 24 hours before rain moves in Saturday. Montreal will remain on the western edge of the storm and therefore we are only expecting light rain.This is not the story along coastal areas where heavy rain and strong winds have produced serious flooding and damage. Thousands are without power in Virginia and North Carolina. The Outer Banks have been hammered by successive high tides producing major flooding. NC 12 is closed on Hatteras Island from Oregon Inlet to Rodanthe. It may reopen later today as the storm slowly moves north. Storm warnings and coastal flood warnings are now posted as far north as Cape Cod. Heavy rain will overspread New England tonight. In Norfolk major flooding has occurred along the coast, and power is out as winds gusted to near hurricane strength yesterday.

Coastal Storm Update

North Carolina 12, in the center of the picture, is washed over with sand and surf while the mighty Atlantic is on the right. This image is looking north from the Village of Rodanthe on the Outer Banks at 8:12 this morning.

The remains of Ida combined with high pressure over Quebec continues to produce a significant wind and water event for the mid Atlantic coast from Long Island south to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Web cams this morning are showing a fierce Atlantic Ocean rising up and in some cases over the dunes producing severe flooding, especially along the Outer Banks and in Virginia Beach. The still shot above is from the web cam looking north from the Village of Rodanthe, a place I know very well. Hatteras Island is narrow at this location and subject to ocean overwash. Winds in the region are gusting from the northeast to 60mph and many regions have reported 3 to 6 inches of rain. Numerous warnings for flash flooding, high surf, high winds and coastal surge remain in effect from New York City to South Carolina and inland up the Chesapeake Bay towards Washington.

The northern extent of the precipitation is into New Jersey while the extreme edge of the cloud shield made for a brilliant sunrise in Montreal today. It appears this system will stay south of Quebec and northern New England for now.

Remains of Ida pounding Mid-Atlantic

The combination of the remains of Hurricane Ida, a frontal system and low pressure north of the Bahamas are expected to produce a long period of heavy rain, wind and high surf from North Carolina to New Jersey. Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for the Carolina's, Virginia, Delaware and Maryland. Coastal flooding is expected along the Outer Banks tonight through Friday afternoon. Ocean over wash is possible along NC12, and it could become impassable. Flooding is expected to be as bad as with Hurricane Isabel in 2003 in many areas of Tidewater of Virginia and Chesapeake. Storm force winds are already blowing along the coast with gusts over 40mph at the Bay Bridge. More information on this story can be found here at The Virginia Pilot Online.

Remembrance Day

Please take time to remember today.

The weather will be ideal for most parts of the country this November 11. Temperatures are close to normal here in Montreal and Eastern Ontario (plus 7 to 10C). It will be sunny and dry. The evenings will be seasonable with lows below freezing (0C to -4C). The next chance for rain will come this weekend. There is not much certainty at this time with the weekend forecast as we wait to see what the remains of Hurricane Ida do.

Ida moved inland along the Alabama coast yesterday with high surf and very heavy rains. The rainfall amounts will be excessive in the 4 to 8 inch range (so far almost 6 inches of rain have been reported in Alabama and the Florida panhandle). As the system moves off the southeast coast it is expected to become a very intense coastal storm with strong winds and destructive tides along the coast from Georgia northward to the middle Atlantic and especially the Carolina's. Numerous warnings are in place for coastal flooding and storm surge. NWS radar this morning is showing very heavy rain in the Carolina's and showers from the system as far north as New York City. High pressure over our area combined with Ida will produce a strong onshore flow along the Atlantic Coast along with strong storm force winds. Coastal damage is expected.

The Florida Coast yesterday as Ida moved inland with primarily flooding. AP Photo

Indian Summer

Indian Summer, is when the weather is sunny and warm, and above normal, usually 21°c (70°F), and all of the leaves of the trees have turned but before the first snow has fallen. A true Indian summer occurs after the first frost, generally a killing frost, of the season.

It really looked like this would be the year not only without a summer, but also without an Indian Summer, but I believe we qualify for this today. The temperature has reached 18C so far at the airport in Montreal (close enough), warmer downtown, and 21C at St. Anicet and along the US border in Champlain, NY. What a glorious day with plenty of sunshine. Enjoy!

Hurricane Ida

Ida this morning in the Gulf of Mexico south of the Mississippi Coast. (NWS Photo)

It is fitting that post number 800 for Valley Weather will be about a Hurricane...

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the US Gulf Coast from Mississippi over to the Florida panhandle, while a Tropical Storm Warning is posted for the Louisiana coast including New Orleans. This morning Hurricane Ida is located about 235 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving NNW at 16mph. The storm has lost some strength and is now back to a Category 1 after peaking at a 2 with 105mph winds yesterday afternoon. Very little change in strength is expected before the storm moves inland tonight. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast track, but despite that, the storm will still bring rising surf and heavy rains to the region. A surge of 3-6 feet above normal tides is expected along with 4 to 8 inches of rainfall. It is still too soon to tell what further impacts up and along the east coast that Ida will have, but most indications at this time are that the system will remain to the south and east of New England. Heavy rain is forecast in the southeast US.

Weekend Weather

Tropical Depression Ida this morning

Post Number 799

We finally have some active weather to talk about, just not here. It has been a very quiet weather week in Ontario and Quebec with just a few flurries and sprinkles this morning along the US border. They should end by noon with clearing skies for the weekend. It will start off chilly today and Saturday morning. Today we will only warm to 5C with a north breeze. Winds however will veer to the south tomorrow and milder air will flow into the region. Look for temperatures of 10 to 12C for the weekend.

The active weather lies on both coasts like bookends. A strong Pacific storm is bring heavy rain and snow to BC and the Pacific northwest. Rainfall amounts of 50-100mm occurred along with heavy mountain snows. Winds were very strong as well with this storm. On the east coast a strong nor'easter is pounding the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland coasts with winds over 110km/h, high surf and up to 25cm of snow in the interior of both provinces. The cutoff for the precipitation is sharp with warnings confined to northern and eastern Nova Scotia and most of Newfoundland.

The last big story is we have a tropical system in the Caribbean Sea along the Honduras and Nicaraguan border. Tropical Depression Ida developed yesterday and reached storm strength with winds of 60mph. She has since weakened slightly to a depression as the system interacts with the land. The storm is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and strengthen into a tropical storm once again. Heavy rain is producing flash floods along the Central American coast and especially over higher terrain inland. All interests along the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should begin to monitor this system. It has been a very quiet season and with the end in sight, many have let their guard down. November hurricanes, while rare, can still pack a punch. Hurricane Jeanne back in 1980 flooded parts of the Florida Keys before moving up the east coast as a major storm with rain and even snow inland. Ida is following, to this point anyway, a life cycle similar to Jeanne. Stay tuned!

Breezy and cooler

Parts of Nebraska had record snow for the month of October with several areas recording there annual average in one month! Photo of North Platte, Nebraska from AccuWeather

Showers are slowly moving across the region this morning in advance of a cold front. They are light in nature and should taper off by noon. It will turn windy this afternoon behind the cold front with temperatures dropping to -3C tonight. Combine this with Northwest 30-50km/h winds and it will be an early taste of winter. Another frontal system and associated low will affect the region on Thursday with rain and mountain snow showers. A dusting of snow is possible in the Laurentians, Greens and Adirondacks. It will remain very chilly right through Friday. The weekend at this time looks quite pleasant with sunshine returning and much milder temperatures near 10C once again.

Pleasent weather to start week

A windy, wet Halloween on the West Island of Montreal

It was a very windy Halloween across the island of Montreal, with peak gusts over 70km/h. The good news was that the rain was much lighter than expected with about 9 mm falling. The wet weather was over by trick or treat time, but the wind continued well into the overnight before diminishing. Sunday was sunny with cloudy periods and breezy, but mild for early November with temperatures around 10C.

Monday will be fair before unsettled weather for the balance of the week. Several cold fronts will affect the region with showers at first but the threat for flurries by Thursday as much colder air moves into the St. Lawrence Valley and New England. Daytime highs in the 7 to 10C range will lower to the 3 to 5C range by Friday.

Windy & Spooky

A windy, very spooky and mild Halloween is in store across Ontario, Quebec and New England. Very strong low pressure is moving north across central Ontario and into Quebec. It will draw a potent cold front across the region today. Along the front heavy rain is falling, but the big story is the wind. Wind Advisories are in effect for the Richelieu Valley and south shore in Quebec as well as Prince Edward County in Ontario and northern New York and Vermont. South winds are gusting to 60km/h and will increase to gusts to 90km/h as the front approaches. It will be mild with temperatures in the upper teens (60' F). Once the front passes temperatures will drop down to more seasonable values with clearing skies and diminishing winds. The shower activity will become more spotty for the trick or treaters in Montreal and Kemptville tonight. Please drive safely.

Remember to put your clocks back one hour tonight to standard time.

A windy Halloween

Snow fell in Denver this week. Are we next?

The strong winter storm that has been affecting the US Rockies and central plains is beginning to move northeast. The storm was responsible for nearly 40 inches of snow north and west of Denver with roads closed and power outages reported. The system is trailing a cold front that has produced severe weather in the Midwest and southern plains. That cold front will play a major role in our Halloween weather. As the storm moves across the Dakotas and into northwest Ontario, the cold front will approach the St. Lawrence Valley. Look for strong southwest winds ahead of the front to develop tonight and push the mercury up to the 19C mark in Montreal for Halloween. That is the good news. The bad news is it will be blustery with winds gusting from 50 to 70km/h and even approaching 90km/h in places. We may need advisories on this weather situation, but that will be determined at some point later today. It will not be a washout, but the front will generate a period of heavy showers late in the day Saturday. It will be cooler and dry on Sunday as high pressure follows and the temperature reaches 10C.

Next weeks weather looks interesting by the end of the week, and by that I mean snow is possible. I put my winter tires on the old Saturn this morning, and usually I am pretty good with these things. I would do the same soon as well.

44,000 Hits

Wow, ValleyWeather surpassed 44,000 hits yesterday morning. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for reading. Many of you have asked me weather questions, and friends and co-workers often ask me the weekend forecast and I thank you as well. I always have time to talk weather and have for the last 30 years, since September 1979 when I tracked my first hurricane - David - along the east coast of Florida and started recording daily weather.

My interest in weather actually started much earlier during the winter of 1971 when a fierce March snowstorm closed down Montreal for several days. It caught my young attention span and managed to keep me still for a day just watching the weather outside. Hurricane force winds and 45cm of snow in one day will do that. There have been so many memorable weather events in those 30 years. Some that stand out are the day the Decarie and most of Montreal flooded on July 14, 1987, and shortly after that the terrible Edmonton tornado on the 31st of July 1987. Hurricanes Hugo, Andrew and Katrina, just to name a few. Others are the 1998 Ice Storm, my first tornado in Saskatchewan in 1998, Tropical Storm Allison in June 1995 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the Halloween Nor’Easter in 1991 (the Perfect Strom) and the March 1993 east coast super storm. That storm on March 13, 1993 (43cm) was the only day that I could not get the Montreal Gazette newspaper out to the paper carriers and stores in my entire career at the paper. There are so many more events, too many to mention them all.

Anyway it has been a very challenging year personally for me and I have not always updated ValleyWeather as often as I would have liked to. So for sticking with me I thank you again. I will be relocating in a few weeks and setting up my home weather station again, so I hope to have better and more local weather information and maybe even a web cam in the near future.

Be good and be safe…

**Today will be cloudy across the region and chilly with northeast winds in Montreal, and no better than 9C for a high temperature. Showers are possible especially south of the city towards the U.S. border. Skies will clear out for Thursday and it will be sunny and mild into Friday. It looks like Halloween will be wet, but there is still time for the forecast to change and a window of opportunity for tricks and treats to open up. Next week looks cooler, with a chance of some snow again by mid week.

Sunny Monday

Cross border shoppers were not the only Canadians taking a break on Sunday. These geese paused on their flight south along the Lake Champlain shoreline just off Route 9 in Plattsburg, NY.

It was a mixed weather weekend in our region with steady rain and windy conditions Saturday followed by cooler but dry weather Sunday. About 20mm of rain fell in Montreal Saturday with much less to the north and west, (6mm in Kemptville) and more south and east of the city. Portions of Vermont had nearly double that amount.

High pressure will remain in control today, with a sunny and cool day, close to 7C. A weak area of low pressure will move across the area tonight with just a couple of showers or flurries. A stronger system will impact the area on Wednesday with a greater threat of rain. The week will be mild, with no major cold outbreaks in sight. It is early in the forecast period, but it looks like Halloween could be on the wet side. The rain may taper in time for the trick or treaters. More on that later in the week.

50/50 Weekend

A skiff of snow lines the edges of the elevated expressways this morning in Montreal and I noticed most cars coming from the Townships had quite a bit of snow on them. It was the result of the leftover precipitation behind last nights cold front ending as a little wet snow. Time now for the snow tires before the next round.

Today will start sunny, but clouds are on the increase as strong low pressure over Illinois move northeast towards eastern Ontario. Strong winds and heavy rain will overspread the region today from Ontario towards the Ottawa Valley this evening. The rain, heavy at times and winds of up to 60km/h will move into Montreal overnight. About 20-30mm is expected by the time the precipitation tapers off on Saturday night. it will be much milder with the system with temperatures rising overnight to a Saturday daytime high of 16C.

High pressure will clear skies out on Sunday and it will be slightly cooler at 11C.

Thursday update...

The first snowflakes of the season fell in Montreal this afternoon. Accumulations were light as witnessed on my Saturn above.

5PM: Radar is showing the back edge of the cold front moving south through the Montreal area. Wet snow is falling on the West Island (2C) and north of the city. Travel with extreme caution tonight as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing before the precipitation ends before midnight. Roads will be slick.

1PM: Latest update on the area weather. It is very chilly in Montreal at only 2C. The rain is ever so close to being wet snow, and you don't have to go far to the northeast to find snow. Snow is falling east of Quebec City and areas to the north. Travel is difficult along highway 20 east of Quebec City. Environment Canada has posted a snowfall warning for Montmagny - L'Islet and the Laurentian Wildlife reserve for 10-15cm of wet snow this afternoon. Highway 20 runs through that region for anyone heading to Atlantic Canada today. The cold front is now on radar approaching Ottawa and it will move into Montreal this afternoon. A period of heavy rain and even some thunder along with gusty winds is possible along the front.

Just a quick update on the current weather in the region. Low pressure over eastern Ontario has a warm front to our south and a cold front to our northwest. The showers have ended for the time being in Montreal, but will reform along the cold front this afternoon. It will remain cool in the St. Lawrence Valley with northeast winds and a temperature of only 4C in Montreal but Kemptville may make it into the warm sector for a brief period. Toronto is currently 13C south of the front. Northeast of Montreal in a swath from the Quebec/Ontario border across to east of Quebec City and into northern New Brunswick, snow is falling. Amounts may be as much as 10-15cm locally. Keep this in mind if you are traveling to Quebec City today, where it is currently 0C and snowing. The warm air will remain to our south with this system. Friday will be sunny and cool behind this storm. The weekend looks rainy but mild Saturday with clearing skies Sunday.

Rainy weather ahead

After yesterday’s brief mild weather, it was close to 15C in many regions, today is a little cooler, but dry. The weather is about to become unsettled over the next several days. A combination of low pressure and associated fronts will move across the region beginning tonight, followed by a more intense storm on Saturday. The first system will bring a cold rain to the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and part of Thursday before late clearing. A warm front will lie just south of the region with temperatures in the 14 to 17C range expected south of the front, but under 5C north of the front in Montreal with a cold northeast wind. There may even be a period of wet snow northeast of Quebec City and in northern New Brunswick tonight. Keep this in mind if traveling east on Autoroute 20 or 40.

Saturday’s system will be stronger with more rain and strong winds. It will however be a little milder in Montreal with the second storm. There is still some uncertainty in the track of the weekend storm. I will update this later today. The potential exists for over 25mm of rain in many regions with this system. The only snow expected with this storm will be over northwest Quebec and northeast Ontario.

Frosty morning

In addition to the snow and rain, parts of coastal New England were battered by several days of high surf and strong winds. Plum Island, Massachusetts, one of my favorite vacation spots is shown above is this Boston.com photo taken yesterday. The coastal flooding caused beach erosion, flooding and damaged some homes.

There was a hard freeze in all areas last night with temperatures as cold as -3C in Montreal and -5 to -7C in outlying regions of rural Quebec and Ontario (-6C in Kemptville). There was even an icy layer of fog south of Montreal creating very slippery conditions on some roads, with you guessed it, cars in the ditch. Today will be sunny with warming temperatures to 10C. The storms of the weekend remained well east of our area with only a few stray clouds moving in Saturday. The New England storm is now moving towards Newfoundland with snow and rain forecast. Parts of central and western Newfoundland could see over 10cm of wet snow. The snow has ended in New England with several inches on the ground. It was one of the earliest tastes of winter on record for the region.

This weeks weather will feature unsettled conditions with some showers most of the week after our sunny Monday, but milder. Next weekend may be interesting with a large fall storm developing over the Great Lakes Thursday and controlling our weather well into the weekend.

New England Snow

The Pats embarrass the Titans 59-0 in a snowstorm today in Foxborough, Mass.
Photo NFL.com

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots knew just what weary Red Sox fans needed to perk them up, a record victory in an early season snowstorm. I could not believe the weather (or the score) that was occurring in Foxborough, Massachusetts today. Despite the heavy wet snow, strong winds and cold, the Patriots destroyed the Titans 59-0. The weather was as big a story as the game itself. Low pressure passing over the Atlantic coast well east of Cape Cod produced heavy precipitation along the entire coastline. Just enough cold air mixed into the storm to produce wet snow across the interior regions of central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Along the coast heavy rain and very strong winds, over 40mph, are producing some coastal flooding. Advisories are in effect tonight. The storm will continue to move northeast towards Atlantic Canada, with 30mm of rain and 40-60km/h winds forecast for Halifax.

The weather in southern New England was in stark contrast to the beautiful fall weekend southern Quebec and Ontario had. Sunny both days, with just a few cloudy periods, and seasonable highs in the 8 to 10C range, with cool overnight lows below freezing.

Snow to our south

Heavy wet snow brought down trees in Sate College, PA. Photo from AccuWeather

It has been quite the stormy week to our south and east as two storms have moved up the east coast of the US and Canada. A third one is currently developing along the Carolina coast while storm 2 moves towards Newfoundland, so lets begin there. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for interior sections of the province for 15-20cm of heavy wet snow before it ends Saturday. Winds will be very strong over the entire province, gusting to 120km/h along the coast and 80km/h inland. This will be the second major storm this week to affect the province with a third poised to arrive late Sunday.

Along the eastern seaboard of the US coastal flooding has been reported from North Carolina to New Hampshire. High surf has been driven by gale force winds and is piling water up along the coastlines. This will continue at least through Sunday. There is the potential for some major flooding. Inland heavy record October snow has been falling across the mountains of Pennsylvania and southern New York with rain mixed with snow in the valleys. The highest mountain tops have recorded over 10 inches of wet snow while the lower elevations have as much as 4 inches. Tree damage is widespread. More snow is expected this weekend from the third storm.

In Montreal we remain on the extreme northwest edge of the cloud shield. It has been cold enough for snow and a chilly northeast wind is blowing reminding us of the storm to our southeast. Montreal this morning was at -2C while Kemptville was -4C. Some surrounding areas were as cold as -6C. I have been reading a few forecast discussions, and there is still some uncertainty as to the impact on our region of the third storm Saturday. It appears it too will move far to the east and produce only some flurries in Vermont and northern New York with scattered clouds in Montreal. That may change but so far the weekend forecast looks fair but chilly for Quebec and Ontario.

Storms stay to the east

The fist few snowflakes of the season were in the air in Montreal yesterday afternoon. Montreal managed a chilly 4C for a high temperature with a low of 0C at 6am this morning. Cloud cover and breezy northeast winds meant little to no frost in Montreal. Portions of eastern Ontario, including Kemptville had a hard freeze last night, -4C with general frost, and an end to the growing season.

Two strong east coast storms are in the weather news this morning. Nor’easter 1 moved from coastal North Carolina towards Newfoundland and intensified rapidly. The storm dumped 67mm of rain on Bonavista and 47mm of rain including 5.2cm of wet snow on St. John’s. Winds were fierce with a peak gust at 157km/h on the Sea Rose Oil Platform, 133km/h at Bonavista and 98km/h at Twillingate. Trees and power lines were toppled in the region.

A second storm is currently developing along the Carolina coast and has pushed precipitation as far north as New York and Pennsylvania this morning. Heavy rain and interior mountain wet snow is expected along the track and to the west of the storm as it moves towards Atlantic Canada by Saturday. So far Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect from interior Pennsylvania across the southern tier of New York State. Up to a foot of wet snow is expected at the highest elevations. This early wet snow is capable of damaging trees that still contain most of their leaves. Coastal flood watches and gale warnings are in effect along the east coast from the Outer Banks northward to Maine. There are still some uncertainties in the track of the system, but showers and flurries are now forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday. Stay tuned for more info on the new storm later today.

Frosty Morning

Area temperatures dipped below freezing this morning with widespread frost everywhere, with the exception of the immediate shorelines of the St. Lawrence River and downtown Montreal where a light breeze prevented dew and thus frost.

Temperatures are -1C in Montreal and -2C at Kemptville and Ottawa. Yesterday snow fell in many areas across the region including the Townships and into northern New England. Mount Washington, New Hampshire, known for having some of the most wicked weather on the planet, had nearly 7.5" (18cm) of snow along with temperatures of 12.5F (-14C) and winds over 50mph. Blowing snow and cold wind chills are producing mid-winter conditions on the summit this morning, with visibility at 50 feet! I put an awesome link to their website on the left hand side of my blog. Check it out, it is worth the visit.

The weekend weather looks interesting in New England and eastern Quebec into the Maritimes as the first nor'easter of the season may whip up and move across the region. There are some indications of snow, rain and strong winds. The models are all over the place as far as Montreal is concerned, but eastern parts of Maine, the Gaspe and into Atlantic Canada will definitely see heavy precipitation and winds in excess of 90km/h. I will post more on that later today. Remember that frost warnings remain in effect again tonight for the entire region. I imagine that most people have ended the flower and gardening season by now, but if not take the necessary precautions to protect your plants from the sub-zero readings. It will be colder tonight, well below zero in all areas including metro Montreal (-3C).

Cold weather this week

The ground is white in the Eastern Townships of southern Quebec this morning.

Depending on where you are in the metro region this morning you are either experiencing a cold rain or wet snow. The ground is white across the Laurentians and in the Eastern Townships. It is snowing steadily in Sherbrooke at 0C with light snow being reported in St. Agathe with a temperature at zero. The snow is staying on the ground across the highest elevations but melting elsewhere. There are slick spots if you are travelling across the region including Quebec Highway's 15 and 10 and the Interstates across Vermont and especially northern New Hampshire where a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for 5-10cm of snow above 1000 feet. This would include any travel on Interstate 91.

In Ontario the wet weather may have been a factor in a major accident involving a semi on Highway 401 at the Lancaster exit in the eastbound lanes. The OPP are reporting that the truck, carrying a load of paper rolls, is on its side and an extensive clean up is underway. Traffic is being detoured onto the northbound service road (SD&G County Road 2) till further notice.

The rain in will continue most of the morning in Montreal and Eastern Ontario and it will be very cool only reaching about 5C. Frost Warnings are in effect for tonight in as it cools well below freezing in all regions. Temperatures will fall from -1C to as cold as -6C overnight. Wednesday and the balance of the work week will be sunny but chilly.

Record cold, snow & frost - October?

Despite the chilly and windy weather, the colours look awesome and the sunshine inviting in Montreal today.

Cold arctic air continues to pour into western Canada and across the border into the Rockies and northern plain states. Numerous record low temperatures fell yesterday across the prairies and temperatures are not expected to get above freezing today. It is currently -5C in Calgary, and they will drop to -14C Monday morning. Banff was -19C this morning. All time record lows for October are tumbling across the west. Snow has been falling along the Trans Canada Highway from Calgary east towards northwest Ontario. Portions of the highway were closed in Manitoba as gusty winds and heavy snow made travel impossible, Stretches of the highway remain icy today. Over 15cm of snow fell in southern Manitoba with as much as 25cm locally. The same cold air mass and storm system produced heavy snow across the Rockies in Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. Portions of Interstate 70 were closed and the MLB Playoff Game between the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies was cancelled last night., They will try Agni tonight when it should be a much milder 9C as opposed to -2C and snow last night.

In eastern Ontario and southern Quebec it is windy and chilly today, but skies have cleared and will remain that way into Monday before the plains storm moves east. Frost Warnings have been issued for all of southern Quebec and I expect a general frost tonight with temperatures lowering to 0C in the city. A cold soaking rain is expected Tuesday before windy and cold conditions to end the week with some flurries. Meanwhile the west will warm up with temperatures returning to above normal by the end of the week.

Weekend Weather

Happy Thanksgiving

Low pressure and its associated fronts will produce a grey and wet Friday across all of our area today. Rainfall will be light but steady this morning before a midday break and then more rain along the cold front this evening. Saturday will be showery with afternoon clearing and temperatures around 10C. Sunday looks windy and cold with temperatures remaining in the single digits. Thanksgiving Monday at this time looks like the best of the three days with some sunshine and slightly milder temperatures.

It is frigid across Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta this morning. I was checking the radar and snow is falling across eastern Saskatchewan into the Parklands of Manitoba. it is windy with blowing snow at several locations. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for west central Manitoba for 20-30cm of snow. Behind the low pressure, temperatures have plummeted to record lows for October. It is -9C in Assiniboia, SK and -13C in Cypress Hills, SK to name a few. It is no warmer in Alberta with Calgary at -10C and Edmonton at -7C. A very chilly weekend is forecast with a few all time October record lows falling tonight in Saskatchewan and Montana.

Have a safe holiday weekend and be thankful for all you have.

Much colder

Today will be sunny and mild for early October, the most pleasant day of the week. Low pressure over the mid Mississippi valley will push northeast and pass south of the region on Friday. More rain is expected with breezy conditions. Yesterday nearly 22mm of rain fell on Montreal, most of it in the afternoon as thunderstorms developed along a sharp cold front. Winds gusted up to 50km/h in Quebec and over 100km/h in Ontario.

Another storm system will pass through the region on Saturday night, and usher in the coldest air of the season thus far. Temperatures will struggle to make it to 8C next week with overnight lows below freezing. Frost and even some flurries are possible. Today, that same system is producing snow and windy conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some parts of Saskatchewan will see 5-10cm of wet snow with 50-70km/h winds possible. Driving may become tricky in the eastern part of the province tonight especially south of the Trans Canada Highway.

Strong Winds

A real cute picture from weather.com taken by KD in Potsdam, NY this past weekend.

A gusty low pressure area over Quebec this morning will rapidly move east dragging a cold front across the area by noon. The front has already produced thunderstorms and strong winds in New York and Ontario. Radar this morning is showing strong thunderstorms over upstate New York and more storms moving off Lakes Erie and Ontario. Winds are gusting over 90km/h including 98km/h at Port Colborne in the last hour. Winds will gust to 50km/h in Montreal with the risk of steady showers and some storms this morning, before a partial clearing later today. The temperatures will be in the 12 to 15C range.

Rain & Wind

The storm that arrives tomorrow dumped heavy snow across the Rockies this week in both the US and Canada

Big changes are in the air as we head into Thanksgiving weekend. A potent low pressure area is organizing over the plains states and is expected to move northeast towards Michigan and east into Quebec while deepening. Rain will overspread the region tonight and continue into Wednesday. Close to 25mm of rain is possible in many areas, with embedded thunderstorms. Winds will become a factor as well on Wednesday and may reach advisory level in Ontario and western New York, with gusts over 80 km/h. It will be windy in southern Quebec as well, exceeding 60km/h in Montreal. We will get a break on Thursday with partly sunny skies and mild temperatures before another storm moves in for Friday. Behind that storm much colder air will pour into the region and some snow is possible off the Great Lakes into Sunday. I will post more on that later in the week. Next week will be sharply colder and we will likely have a general frost ending what is left of the growing season.

Grey Monday

A trough of low pressure is expected to sweep across the area today with showers and thunderstorms. Sunday turned out to be a delightful day in the St. Lawrence Valley after Saturday's rain. Most areas had several ours of sunshine with light south winds and warm temperatures for October. It was an ideal day for viewing the fall foliage which is starting to reach peak in the mountains and approaching 35-40% in the valleys. Last night the seasons waged a little battle with a spectacular Harvest Moon rising over the city followed by some thunder and lightning later on in the evening. Today we can expect cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms developing by noon. More showers Tuesday as well, before rain on Wednesday. The next sunshine will not arrive until Thursday.

The first snow of the year blanketed parts of Alberta on the weekend. 10-15cm of snow fell along the spine of the Rockies in western Alberta with lesser amounts in the foothills, and only a couple of centimeters on grass and cars in Calgary. This morning the temperature is 1C and snowing in Calgary and -1C in Edmonton, but clear.

Flurries

Traffic slows for water accumulation on Highway 15 south during heavy showers Tuesday afternoon.

There is plenty to talk about on this first day of October. As the months change there is a real feeling that the seasons have changed as well. Yesterday, as I expected, the temperature struggled to reach 10C. We won’t get there today as more clouds and drizzle remain from that stubborn low pressure area north of Montreal, and hold out temperature to around 9C. It is between 3 and 5C this morning in the region with even a flurry in the air in places. Some snow fell yesterday at Stowe and Jay Peak, Vermont and across the highest elevations of the Adirondacks. Snow also fell across the west in Colorado and Utah as another area of low pressure moves across the central US. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are occurring east of the low and snow and cold west of it. This is a sure sign of a fall weather pattern as the low pressure areas become more intense. That system will move towards the east coast over the weekend with rain in Montreal Saturday and showers Sunday.

Fall & October arrive together

Monday's storm pushed water off Lake Erie onto lake shore roads in Buffalo.
(Buffalo News photo)

A month that started off with shorts, sunshine and 30C weather is ending as it should with car heaters, fireplaces, warm coats and only 6C this morning. It really feels like fall today. Upper level low pressure continues to swirl around southern Quebec this morning. A cold front passed through the region overnight, with a wind shift and a noticeable drop in temperatures. It will remain cloudy and cool today with sprinkles and even some mountain snow showers. Temperatures will struggle to hit the 10C mark. Any sunny breaks will be very limited. It will remain cloudy and cool Thursday, before a few breaks Friday morning. Then, it appears the weekend will be wet and chilly. Strong low pressure is expected to organize across the plains and move east towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Indications are that more than 25mm of rain could fall this weekend. So just remember the happy thoughts of the first 15 days of September when not even a raindrop could be found. Incidentally the month recovered nicely in the rainfall department. 44.2mm has fallen in Montreal with all of that since the 15th, and half of it in the last 3 days. The normal rainfall for the month is 92.6mm.

Wild weather day

Dark clouds and gusty winds greet rush hour traffic on the Champlain Bridge in Montreal.

Wild weather moved across the entire region today from central and western New York across Ontario and into southwest Quebec. A cold front associated with an intense early fall storm swept across the Great Lakes with heavy thunderstorms fierce winds and heavy rain. Winds gusted over 100km/h most of the afternoon along both sides of the Lake Erie shoreline. The water level along the Buffalo shore rose almost 7.5 feet above normal sending water onto some roads close to the lake. Heavy lake effect rain and thunderstorms then swept the region around the supper hour causing flooding and trapping several motorists on Buffalo highways. Numerous trees came down and power was out to over 10,000 homes.

In Ontario winds were recorded at 105km/h at Long Point, 100km/h at Port Colborne and Point Petree. Elsewhere they gusted close to 80km/h. In southern Quebec the front raced across the region around 6:30pm with swirling clouds, small hail and gusty winds. The core of the strongest winds will remain in Ontario and New York as the low pressure slowly lifts into central Quebec. The balance of the week will be cool, breezy and unsettled, very fall like.

Windy & cooler

A warm front has lifted north of Montreal this morning. The low clouds, fog and drizzle should end shortly and then some sunny breaks may even appear. We should reach 20C, quite mild for late September. It will be short lived. The first really strong low pressure area of the fall season is moving southeast towards Buffalo, NY. This should slowly pass south of our area this week. A strong cold front will push across Ontario and Quebec today with strong winds, showers and thunderstorms. Winds are already gusting over 70km/h along Lake Erie, including 73km/h at Long Point. Wind warnings are in effect including the GTA, for winds over 80km/h. Warnings are also in effect for western NY. There is also a Lakeshore Flood Watch posted for Lake Erie. As a result of the shallow lake being whipped by southwest winds, flooding may occur on the eastern and northern shore lines later today. The balance of the week will be unsettled with showers, windy and much cooler. A few snowflakes may even occur over the highest elevations around our area.

Big changes on the way

Change is in the air: After a beautiful Saturday, clouds begin to shade the sun in Plattsburgh, NY yesterday afternoon. ValleyWeather Photo

What has seemed like a bonus extra month of summer this September across most of Canada is about to come to an end. A potent cold front is sweeping across the country from the Prairies across Ontario and into Quebec by late tomorrow. Strong winds, showers and thunderstorms and much cooler temperatures are accompanying this front. Parts of Saskatchewan have fallen from the mid 30's Friday into the single digits today, including 1C at Cypress Hills Provincial Park with winds over 50km/h. Wind warnings are in effect for gusts over 80km/h. This front will arrive in Montreal late Monday with strong wind and showers as well as a scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures near 20C on Monday, will do no better than 13C or so for Tuesday and even cooler on Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service in Burlington, we may even see a snowflake or two across the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. We knew it had to arrive sooner or later.