Weekend Update

We had a beautiful sunrise over the Island of Montreal today, however it is cold. Temperatures are around -13C with a stiff west northwest wind blowing and wind chill values below -22C. Winds will increase today and remain elevated over the weekend in the 20-40km/h range. This is a result of that stubborn storm that affected the US east coast this week. It is beginning to retrograde towards the west and is approaching the Newfoundland coast. It will continue west into Central Quebec over the weekend. The result will be a variable forecast with the chance of light snow intermittently over the weekend and gusty winds. There may be an enhancement in the snowfall late Sunday and Monday as yet another low pressure system approaches the middle Atlantic states. As I said it is a complicated scenario.

So today - partly cloudy and then the balance of the weekend cloudy with scattered snow showers. It will remain chilly. We may end up with several centimetres by the time the weekend is over. Newfoundland, and parts of Nova Scotia and PEI are receiving freezing rain from this system along with very strong winds. Along the Labrador coast, it is snow and blowing snow.

One for the record books

"It's hard to find anything in the

history books of these types of storms back to back."

- National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Konarik

There are so many numbers that I could use to quantify just how unusual and severe this past week has been from Washington to New York. I have decided to look at hard hit Baltimore (shown above yesterday). That city normally has 18 inches of snow for the season (less than 50 cm). In back to back storms over the past 4 days they have accumulated over 42 inches of snow. Their seasonal total is now well over 70 inches, more than any other season on record dating back to 1893. The previous record was 63 inches set in 1995-96. Combine that with fierce winds of over 40mph and you have truly a Storm of the Century, maybe the last 2 Centuries. Maryland and New Jersey along with southeast Pennsylvania and Delaware were the hardest hit areas once again from yesterdays storm. Snow totals ranged from 1 to 2 feet for most locations including a foot in New York City. Amounts tapered off quickly north of metro New York into Connecticut as the storm pulled out to sea. Maryland has been in the ideal location for this storm track. Copious moisture pulling in off the Atlantic meeting just enough cold air and strong northerly winds. Schools remain closed statewide today. The federal government is also shut down for the 4th straight day at an estimated cost of 100 million a day in lost revenue (their numbers not mine).

Another storm sliding into the Pacific coast will affect the same region by early next week. Montreal will remain on the far northern edge of this system once again with just flurries and low clouds expected. Our snow drought continues, as we are stuck at 2cm for the month. The reality is that is is colder in Washington D.C. with more snow than most of Canada including fair and warm Vancouver, where a lack of snow is a real problem for the upcoming Olympics. Snow is being trucked in...unreal!

Another miss

The weather in Montreal, southern Quebec and into eastern Ontario continues to be very tranquil. Cloud cover from low pressure developing along the US east coast will continue to thicken over the region today along with an increase in northeast winds. Temperatures will be fairly mild at -4C. We are not expecting any precipitation from the second big east coast storm in less than a week. The northern extent of the snow will be from the southern Champlain Valley southward. Only a trace to 2 inches is expected through central Vermont with 2 to 4 inches in southern Vermont and close to Albany, NY. The heaviest snow with this system has fallen from lower Michigan and Southwest Ontario, where Windsor has picked up over 15cm, across Pennsylvania and into the middle Atlantic. Most schools are closed in New York City today and nearly 6000 flights have been canceled from Washington to Boston in anticipation of the snow. The storm is expected to deepen rapidly east of Delaware today and move along the coast towards Long Island. Snow is expected to become heavy in New York and Boston later today with up to a foot expected. Winds will increase from the north and gust to 50mph later today causing near blizzard conditions from Delaware north into New Jersey and metro New York. The storm will affect eastern Newfoundland on Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Avalon.

The next big storm

Interstate 95 on Sunday

Windsor, Ontario this afternoon is down to 1km visibility in snow and blowing snow with 15-25cm expected. They will be the only region along with the immediate Lake Erie shoreline in Ontario and Quebec to be affected by the latest winter storm. This storm comes rapidly on the heels of this past weekends record breaking blizzard. Some streets have yet to be plowed across the middle Atlantic and airports were just getting back to normal. Power remains out in many locations as this next storm bears down on the region. Snow is expected from Virginia's eastern shore across the DC metro area and northward into New York and southern New England. With a track further north, New York City will be affected this time with up to 30cm expected. Travel once again in the busy northeast corridor will be severely impacted just as it was returning to normal. Coastal areas will have a mix of precipitation, but will, have to deal with high surf and strong winds. The storm is expected to move towards Atlantic Canada by Thursday. Winter Storm Watches at this point are in effect towards Boston.

We are not expecting any snow or weather from this system as the snow drought in Montreal continues. So far in February Montreal has recorded only 2cm of snow or less than 1 inch. On average we should have over 45cm for the month.

Middle: A large storm east of Newfoundland is spreading snow west into Atlantic Canada, New England and Quebec. Top and below: A few pictures from the middle Atlantic storm.

Lots to talk about quickly as I prepare to watch Superbowl 44, Go SAINTS! The weather in Miami, ideal for football, clear and 17C (63F).

The epic east coast snowstorm is over. The stats are stunning to say the least. Nearly 3 feet of snow in many locations with many more recording 24 to 28 inches including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dover and Washington, some their largest or second largest storm ever. Many highways were closed as well as flights cancelled. Over 300,000 were left without power as the heavy wet snow brought down trees and lines across the Middle Atlantic. The storm is now well east of the area in the open Atlantic. Meanwhile another storm is taking shape across the southwest and will move across the US once again and south of our region.

Lost in all the US east coast news was a large ocean storm east of Newfoundland that pounded that province with heavy snow and fierce winds. The RCMP shut down many roads and advised against any travel. That storm is retrograding towards the coast tonight and has pushed snow down the St. Lawrence Valley and into Quebec City and the Townships. It will continue moving southwest and affect Montreal and northern Vermont. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and the northern Green Mountains. Up to 15cm may fall in those regions, with just a dusting expected in Montreal. Warnings are also in effect for the Gaspe and Saguenay regions for up to 30cm of snow.

Massive southern storm

Heavy wind whipped wet snow along the Jersey Shore in Ocean City last night.

Low pressure continues to deepen east of the Outer Banks this morning. Strong winds and heavy wet snow have been falling in a narrow band from northern North Carolina across Virginia and Maryland through DC and into Delaware and southern New Jersey. As of this morning over a foot had fallen in many locations with upwards of 2 feet forecast. Winds have been gusting over 40mph across the region as well making it nearly impossible to travel. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled in Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia. The wet snow has brought down trees and power lines as well, with thousands in the dark with no heat. The snow will extend no further north than New York City. The main area of low pressure will move well south of Long Island today. Last night blizzard warnings were in effect along the Delmarva while just to the south on the Outer Banks a tornado watch was in effect. This shows the tremendous dynamics involved with this storm and just how powerful it is.

Our weather in comparison, is well, boring and has been really all winter. Today sunny and chilly with a high around -9C. A few more clouds and maybe a flurrie possible in Montreal tomorrow. There are some indications that the next storm, currently over California may take a path further north and affect New England by late Wednesday. Little or no mention of this in the Canadian forecast. We will have to look at later computer model runs to nail down the exact track and strength.

Middle Atlantic storm

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather across Ontario and Quebec throughout the weekend with sunshine and seasonable temperatures. There is just a slight risk of some clouds and flurries from a strengthening east coast storm late Sunday across Quebec.

Meanwhile that storm will become a powerhouse with heavy snow and blizzard conditions from New Jersey across Delaware and into Maryland and northern Virginia. This area has had more snow than Montreal, and will add another 18-24 inches with strong winds. Coastal flooding will compound the snow along the Jersey and Delaware coasts. If I had the time I know where I would be this weekend!

The storm is forecast to dump heavy rain south of that line into the Carolinas and Georgia. Further south in Superbowl and NASCAR land the weather looks ideal in Miami and Daytona, sunny and mild.

Travel will become impossible in many places including Jersey City, Philadelphia, Washington and Baltimore beginning today. Many flights have been cancelled already. The snow will spread north into New York City Saturday but remain well south of our region and northern New England as the storm slides out to sea well south of Long Island.

Storm track to our south

Our weather continues to be very docile for mid-winter. A weak frontal boundary will pass through the region today with light flurries accumulating 1 or 2 cm at best. This will be followed by strong high pressure that will keep any threatening storms well to our south. The sunny and cold weather will continue right through the weekend.

Meanwhile low pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico will move along the Texas coast and into the Southeast. This storm will produce heavy rain(2-5 inches) in the Gulf States with another snowstorm developing north of the system in Virginia, Tennessee and the middle Atlantic states by Friday. This storm has the potential to hinder travel across the southern and eastern part of the US into the weekend.

No major weather is expected in the near future for Montreal or Ontario.

Six more weeks of winter

Update: From Wiarton Willie,

There is the sunrise, send the news to the printer, So I see my shadow, Six more weeks of Winter!

On this Groundhog Day and despite the presence of cloud cover, Phil in western Pennsylvania has seen his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. We are still waiting for Wiarton Willie on the Bruce Peninsula to make his Canadian prediction which usually is available after 8am.

Here is the official word from Punxsutawney Phil
(at right from visitPA.com)
The Prognosticator of Prognosticators, Punxsutawney Phil proclaimed, "If you want to know next, you must read my text. As the sky shines bright above me, my shadow I see beside me.
So six more weeks of winter it will be."

Groundhog Day

I somehow have made it through another January, I must say it is my least favorite month of the year. Once February arrives the days are noticeably longer and the temperature begins to oh so very slowly warm. I did however find this mornings damp -14C colder than any day last week including the -22C mornings. A few flurries fell overnight and more are expected this afternoon as a weak disturbance slides east of the region. Winds will become gusty again and it will dip to -18C tonight. Another bright and sunny day for Tuesday before more light snow on Wednesday. All in all not too bad a weather week with chilly temperatures, but no major storms expected.

**Tomorrow is Groundhog Day. All eyes will be on Phil in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and Willie on the Bruce Peninsula in Ontario for their predictions. Very simple, see the shadow, 6 more weeks of winter, no shadow early spring. As I always say, either way would be a bonus for us here in Montreal and eastern Ontario. If winter ended in six weeks that would be about 4 weeks ahead of normal!

Click WILLIE or PHIL to follow along.

Arctic chill

Bundle up venturing anywhere out of doors for the next 24 hours. It is currently -18C in Montreal with a west wind at 28 gusting to 46 km/h and a windchill of -30C. Ottawa is even colder at -21C and a windchill of -33C. Some of the 6cm of snow that fell yesterday continues to blow around making travel icy and slow at best. Conditions will not improve today with cold temperatures and strong winds. The winds will ease a little tonight but it will be very cold down below -23C in many regions. Saturday will be sunny and cold before a milder Sunday in advance of another cold front approaching the region. Some light snow will occur again along that front before another shot of very cold air to begin next week. It looks like all of next week will be very chilly for early February. Wind chill warnings are posted in New York and Vermont today. There are no warnings on this side of the border but really we are splitting hairs. The criteria for dangerous wind chills is at or below -40C. But at -33C you are not going to know the difference, it is bloody cold out there!

Dangerous Windchills

Snow and blowing snow ushered in arctic cold this evening in Montreal. SB Pic

The temperature has been free falling since 4pm when it was a reasonably mild -4C to the current reading of -11C. It was roughly at that time that the arctic cold front crossed the Montreal region with heavy snow and winds approaching 70km/h. The sudden snow and low visibility sent numerous cars into ditches and caused a traffic nightmare for the evening rush hour. The snow added about 30 minutes to my commute. The snow is over and the cold is settling in on strong northwest winds that will gust over 50km/h for the next 24 hours at least. This, combined with the biting cold, down around -18C tonight and not much better than -16C on Friday, will produce wind chill values below -30C. Windchill warnings are in effect across large areas of eastern and central Ontario as well as portions of Quebec, New York and Vermont. The wind should ease by Saturday but it will remain very cold. The gusty winds are still producing blowing snow across open areas south and west of the metro region.

Snowsquall Warning

Heavy snow with blowing snow is occurring in the Montreal area as a sharp cold front crosses the city. The snow will reduce visibility and ice roads along with dropping temperatures through to 6pm.

Weather Warning

Arctic Boundary

Cold air is on our doorstep. The temperature currently is as warm as it will be for the next week or so. Radar is showing steady snow falling along a cold front moving across Ontario. Ahead of the front strong southwest winds are driving snow squalls off Lake Ontario and down the St. Lawrence Valley. The heaviest snow is falling in northern Jefferson and across St. Lawrence County in New York and into eastern Ontario along the 401 corridor from Kingston to Cornwall. Look for 15-25cm in those regions with a general 5-10cm in all other areas today. If you are traveling along the 401 today expect periods of snow, heavy at times with lots of blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Winter Weather Advisories and Special Weather Statements are posted for those areas. Locally the light snow will pick up and become quite heavy with the frontal passage, before tapering to flurries late tonight. Winds will increase as well out of the southwest and then back to the northwest tonight at speeds from 40-60km/h. The combination of falling and blowing snow will make travel poor this afternoon into early this evening. Once the front passes the temperature will fall to -16C overnight and remain nearly steady on Friday. Skies will eventually clear Friday but winds will make it very cold with wind chills approaching -30C across southwest Quebec and eastern Ontario. It will be a sunny and cold weekend.

Colder Weather

Our mild spell is just about over. Cold arctic air pooling over the central part of the country will slide across the Great Lakes and into Quebec by late Thursday. A shot of steady snow along the arctic boundary will cross the area during the daylight hours Thursday, with a general 5-10cm of snow along with gusty southwest winds and blowing snow. Behind the front, temperatures will plunge to -20C in Montreal and Ottawa by Friday night and "warm" only to -14C for Saturday.

Meanwhile to our south from Arizona to Tennessee and especially Oklahoma and Arkansas, a strong winter storm will tap into the arctic air and Gulf of Mexico moisture, and produce a major winter storm across that area. FEMA is already sending supplies and generators into Oklahoma in anticipation of heavy accumulations of ice. They are expecting power outages that could last several days. Watches and warnings have been posted.

January Thaw

Flooding in Buffalo, NY. Photo D.Gee, Buffalo News

Record breaking rainfall has changed to light snow this morning in Montreal as temperatures hover near the freezing point. Radar is showing a wide swath of light snow on the backside of Monday's powerful storm, across the Ottawa Valley, eastern Ontario and into Quebec. The snow should continue for most of the morning hours with gusty northwest winds. It is considerably colder this morning at 0C down from yesterday's high of 8C in Montreal. Heavy rain set records across the region with 32mm in Montreal, 38mm in Kemptville and 41mm in Ottawa. That amount in Ottawa broke a record for the 24 hour period set back in 1995 with 33.6mm. The moisture laden storm is now moving across Atlantic Canada and off the east coast.

Heavy rain also fell across most of Ontario and into New York and Vermont. Many localities recorded over 50mm including Buffalo and Trenton. There were numerous reports of flooding of underpasses and highways and along area rivers. There was even a mudslide in Montreal along St. Jacques Street West closing two lanes of the roadway. Rivers and streams will have to be closely monitored for the next several days. Remember that all ice is extremely unsafe and unstable at this time.

The balance of the week will feature a return to winter weather with periods of light snow and much colder weather into Thursday before high pressure clears us out for a cold and sunny Friday and Saturday.

Heavy Rain

Radar this morning is showing very heavy rain across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. The rain will continue all day before tapering to a few showers this evening and eventually flurries overnight. Temperatures are very mild today already well above freezing in Montreal and points south and west. Very little freezing rain occurred locally, however it has been falling all night in Quebec City, and Highway 20 remains very poor in that area. Quebec City is still below freezing at 8am. Keep in mind that heavy rain warnings and flood advisories are in effect for our entire area from Ottawa to Montreal and south into New York and Vermont. Expect total rainfall amounts of 25-50mm or 1 to 2 inches of rain by the time in ends this evening.

On the cold side of the storm heavy snow and strong winds continue across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Blizzard Warnings remain posted with travel not recommended. The visibility in Regina has only come up and over 1km in the last few hours after being under a kilometer for over 20 hours. Winds gusted over 80km/h with blowing and flailing snow as well as dropping temperatures. Power was out to thousands of homes with SaskPower unable to reach the hardest hit areas due to closed roads. Nearly 20 highways were closed at the height of the storm including the Trans Canada between Regina and Rush Lake. I have driven that road often, it is wide open and very dangerous with any wind and snow. Highway 11 was also closed northwest to Davidson. Conditions will very slowly improve in Saskatchewan today while remaining poor in Manitoba. There were several major accidents and fatalities on roadways this past weekend.

Rain moving in

Cirrus clouds veil the sun just west of Ingleside, Ontario along the frozen St. Lawrence Seaway this afternoon. Freezing rain is moving into the area at this time. This chip wagon is begging for some sun and warmth, and I could have used a fry!

Radar is showing the leading edge of precipitation currently moving along a line from Ottawa to Kingston as it presses northeast. I expect the precipitation to move into Montreal by 10pm. Temperatures are still below freezing from Brockville northeast towards Ottawa and Montreal and points north. Freezing rain will occur at the onset and deposit 2-4mm of ice before the changeover to steady rain occurs. Between 30-50mm of rain is possible in Montreal and most of southern Quebec into New York and Vermont. Heavy Rain Warnings are in effect along with Freezing Rain Warnings for Ottawa, Cornwall and the Laurentians north of Montreal. A Flood Watch is posted for all of northern NY and Vermont. Winds will increase as well and reach speeds of 50-70km/h overnight first out of the east, then the south. It will warm to 7C by Monday morning. Travel with great care this evening especially north and east of Montreal.

Heavy Rain Warning

Warnings stretch from west to east today as a reult an intense Colorado low

Strong low pressure will move from Colorado northeast across the central Great Lakes and towards central Quebec Monday. A warm front associated with this storm will move north across the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Along this front heavy precipitation and very strong south winds will develop. The rain may begin as a brief period of freezing rain in Montreal but I expect it will rapidly change to rain. The rain will continue across our region well into Monday with 30-50mm (1 to 2 inches) forecast. There are some concerns about local flooding along area lakes and rivers as snow melt and the precipitation will cause water to rise. Stay of the ice.

Environment Canada has issued a Heavy Rain Warning for southern Quebec as well as a Freezing Rain Warning for areas north of the city across the Laurentians. Freezing rain is also expected in the Ottawa Valley and near Cornwall. From 2-6 hours of frozen precip is expected with some icing possible especially near Ottawa. The freezing rain should begin by late afternoon today.

South of the border in upstate New York and Vermont a flood watch has bee posted for the same hydrological concerns related to the 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. In addition to the rain, strong winds will gust from 50 to 80km/h across the entire region.

The storm is affecting a wide area from the Prairies east to Quebec and eventually into Atlantic Canada. Heavy snow and fierce winds are producing blizzard conditions this morning in Saskatchewan, and these will spread into Manitoba, with 15-30cm of snow expected.

Weekend Update

LA Times photo of a fire vehicle stuck in a mudslide. Below: Heavy mountain snows have closed roads across Arizona and northern California.

I am trying to make it through January. I find this the most difficult month of the year, dark and cold. Christmas has passed and baseball is oh so far away, but a least the sun will be out today. Low clouds prevailed yesterday delaying my promise of sunshine by one day. It will be out today across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Temperatures are chilly this morning but near normal. The high temperature today will be around -4C. The weekend will feature a sunny Saturday and an equally fair Sunday before that big Pacific storm moves into the region.


That storm hit Arizona and California hard yesterday. The third in a series of coastal lows dumped feet of snow in the mountains and over 10 inches of rain in the valley's around Los Angeles. There were numerous mudslides and flooding reported. Heavy mountain snows clogged roads and towering waves destroyed some coastal building and piers. There was even more tornadoes sighted along the coast, a very rare event for California. That storm will slide across the central plains and towards the central Great Lakes. Heavy snow and some freezing rain will prevail from Colorado north into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Freezing drizzle is already icing roads this morning, and 10-20cm of snow is forecast across southern portion of those provinces with gusty winds producing near blizzard conditions over the weekend.

As the storm moves west of our region, warm air will push north with it and with mostly rain in Montreal and Ottawa. The precipitation will begin late Sunday as a little light wet snow but rapidly change to rain into Monday. From 15-25mm of rain is possible, so we will have to watch for ice jam potentials or flooding issues across the region.

I will update this weather event on Saturday. Enjoy the weekend and be safe.
Please keep the people of Haiti in your thought and prayers and donate if you can. The link to the Red Cross on the upper left is active.

Sunshine on the way

Heavy rain and snow caused mudslides,
power failures and evacuations in California. AP Photo

High pressure will bring us a steady period of sunny and cool weather from Thursday through Saturday. We have one more day left of low clouds, fog, flurries and some freezing drizzle today as a low pressure trough moves east of our region. Temperatures will be mild again today near 0C and slightly cooler through the weekend, but still above normal. Our next storm system will move from the California coast into the Great lakes on Sunday. Strong south winds ahead of the storm should push temperatures above freezing late Sunday with snow changing to rain across the region. Early estimates are for 15-25mm of precipitation with strong winds. This system bears watching for any possible change in track and precipitation type.

California is being walloped by three major storms this week. The third one has been a doozie with high surf and winds over 100mph. Heavy precipitation has caused flooding and mudslides with copious amounts of snow in the inland mountains of the southwest. Evacuations have been ordered as a result of flooding and many roads have been closed. Power outages have spread across the LA area and inland. There was even a brief and rare tornado yesterday afternoon along the coast southwest of downtown Los Angeles.

Typical El Nino pattern

We are really starting to see an El Nino pattern develop across North America. El Nino is (in a very simple explanation) the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean waters along the South American coast. It develops in varying intensities over the years and can greatly affect the weather patterns around the world. In Canada it basically means a more mild and zonal weather pattern with the cold air remaining far to our north and the storm track far to our south. A typical January with El Nino in Montreal is mild, dull with little sunshine and lots of moist air creating freezing rain, drizzle or light snow...check, check and check.

El Nino patterns also deliver punishing storms to the California coast. Such will be the case this week as a series of storms will produce significant weather in that state. Read about the amazing weather that is expected HERE.

More freezing drizzle

Low pressure moving off the New England Coast, combined with a trough over southern Quebec, is producing a moist northeast flow down the St. Lawrence Valley this morning. This flow is producing drizzle that is freezing on contact with the cold surface. This cold air has been in place in Montreal for the last 24 hours. Yesterday the mild air made it no further than the US border, at one point there was a 10 degree difference between Burlington, Vermont and Montreal. The cold air will be very difficult to move out of valley locations and I expect the freezing drizzle to continue until it changes to light snow this afternoon as the air cools aloft. The precipitation has caused very icy roads again across southwest Quebec and into eastern Ontario with numerous accidents reported. Many road crews were caught off guard as there was no mention of this in yesterday's forecast. We awoke this morning to a late issued weather warning from Environment Canada and the freezing drizzle. Unlike Friday morning I remained on my feet today!

Please remember to give to the Haiti relief effort. Use the link on the upper left. It just takes a few seconds to do, and your donation is being match by the Canadian federal government.

Icy start

Making the roads safe in Beaconsfield this morning. SB Pic

With the temperature above freezing, or so I thought (at least on my thermometer), I stepped out onto my driveway and swoosh or more like a bang, down I went. It seems that light drizzle is freezing on pavement this morning with the area just at the ground level still below the 0C point. The very thin layer of ice is making it very dangerous walking and driving as well. Numerous accidents were reported along the 15 north of Montreal. The drizzle should ease later today as the temperature nudges above freezing in all areas. The weekend will remain damp and unsettled but mild. Light drizzle, fog or even a few flurries is possible at any time. I don't expect much sunshine.

The federal government in Canada will match all donations to the Red Cross and other organizations for Haiti quake relief. Please give today. Use the link on the upper left.

Freezing Drizzle

The mild southwest flow that has begun to move into our region is encountering cold air at the surface in the St. Lawrence Valley. Cold air is very stubborn and heavy to move out. As a result some freezing drizzle can be expected today into this evening across Montreal and eastern Ontario. While it won't amount to much, all it takes is a couple of millimetres to make roads slick. Otherwise look for much milder temperatures into this weekend with daytime highs close to 0C.
I am watching a developing storm over the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to move to Cape Hatteras by Sunday. Models disagree after that with once scenario taking it out to sea well south of New England while the other has it coming close to Cape Cod. The system will have to be watched for track and development but at this time we expect just flurries on Sunday.

Please keep the people of Haiti and the responding relief and rescue workers in your thoughts and prayers. Use the link on the upper left to make a much needed donation to the Red Cross or any other major relief agency.

Haitian Quake

Haiti will need all our help after a 7.0 earthquake caused major damage and loss of life.

A major 7.0 earthquake has shattered the island nation of Haiti leaving unimaginable devastation and loss of life. The quake struck around 5pm Tuesday evening with most buildings collapsing in the capital city Port Au Prince. A least 30 police officers from Montreal are among those unaccounted for at this hour. Relief efforts are just beginning, and details are limited with most communications down.

More information on how you can help can be found HERE

While information on the science of this monster quake can be found HERE

January Thaw?

Could our January thaw be in sight? It will be cold today, with temperature staying very close to where they are now (-12C). Skies will clear out slowly and it it will be a frigid night with low temperatures in the region around -20C. That will be the last arctic night for some time. Patterns are beginning to change to a more typical El Nino winter. Mild pacific air is establishing itself across the west, and that will move rapidly eastward into the Midwest and eventually the east coast. The main storm track will remain well to our south from California towards the Carolinas and out to sea. This will likely mean a warming trend beginning tomorrow and lasting well into next week. As a matter of fact we should go above freezing by Friday. This would be the first day above 0C since Boxing Day and prior to that late November. A few snow showers will occur tomorrow with the arrival of the warmer air.

Next week is looking quite mild as well with more above freezing weather expected. Over the weekend here in the Montreal region two snowmobilers, a father and his young son drowned in the Lake of Two Mountains after they went through the ice late Sunday. Remember please stay off area lakes and rivers. The ice is very changeable this winter with a late and fast freeze with lots of snow and now milder weather coming. This was not a good scenario for thick, hard ice. Play it safe and stay on marked trails or off the water all together. More safety information can be found at this like HERE.

A few flurries

The weather appears to be settling down somewhat across North America with a moderation in temperatures and no big storms around. A couple of very weak frontal systems will give Ontario and Quebec a few flurries today and again Wednesday. The system on Wednesday may have a very brief period of steady snow. Otherwise conditions look a touch milder than last week, but it will remain below freezing. The harsh cold that has gripped the deep southern US will begin to ease this week. The cold sent subzero readings all the way into Florida. The freeze caused millions in losses in agriculture. It was cold enough for sleet and snow in Daytona Beach on Saturday morning. This morning another hard freeze is occurring in central and northern Florida. Jacksonville has the same temperature as Montreal this hour, both at -5C. Daytona Beach is -1C. Temperatures should begin to moderate this week, but not before one more night below freezing tonight. The cold and ice has also caused hundreds of accidents across the south and Midwest and is responsible for at least nine deaths.

Sunshine returns

An Alberta Clipper is sliding eastward across the Great Lakes and just south of our regions today. Most of the steady snow will remain south of the border, however we could see a centimetre or two during the day. This system will be followed by high pressure with cold temperatures beginning tonight. Overnight lows across the area will be close to -18C and it will only warm to around -11C on Saturday. It will warm up a little on Sunday. Conditions will be dry for most of the upcoming week with seasonable temperatures.

January blues

Above: This was a gift at Christmas titled "Fenway Blues" so true.
Below: My favorite puppy models here latest outfit. I don't think she is too impressed!

For someone who loves sunshine and plus 27C weather, I find the cold, short and dark days of January so difficult. I long for Red Sox baseball, shorts, bike rides and mowing the lawn over shoveling snow. But in a cruel twist of fate here in Quebec, and the rest of Canada we begin our coldest, darkest time of the year with no holidays in sight until Easter! We need a February holiday like they have in Ontario now. Anyway what can you do...that is life up north. At least we have the Olympics and my hopes for gold in hockey *not silver - no pressure at all!

It remains cloudy in our region due to that big low pressure area over the north Atlantic. The storm will continue to send moist unstable air down the St. Lawrence Valley producing more light snow in spots and perhaps a shot or two of freezing drizzle. Steady freezing drizzle during last nights rush hour here in Montreal, made the drive home a little challenging. The storm total by the way for the weekend system was 24.5cm for Montreal. We could see another 1 or 2cm over the next 24 to 36 hours, with a slight chance of 1 or 2cm on Friday.

The balance of the week will be damp and chilly with sunshine finally by Saturday. It will turn colder over the weekend, but the sun will be most welcome. Daytime highs of -2 to -5C will drop to -7 to -11C by the weekend.

Bizzaro Storm

Burlington Free Press photo of the record snowstorm being cleared up this Sunday.

It has been a very interesting 24 hours with this major coastal storm. The western edge of the precipitation has been falling quite steady in Montreal for about 24 hours with over 20cm in the region. This storm has produced heavy snow in some very odd places with very little elsewhere. Here are just a few anomalies with this storm. In Burlington, Vermont, over 32 inches (77cm) of snow has fallen, making it the biggest snowstorm in that city in 120 years of weather records. The previous record was 29.8 inches in December 1969. Meanwhile just a few exits down Interstate 89 in Stowe they have received only 4 inches. Plattsburgh, New York just a stones throw across Lake Champlain had only 6 inches. Meanwhile in our region, normally frigid Quebec City went above freezing at 3am last night and stayed there most of the day. They went from -1C to 4C in less than one hour with snow changing to rain. Meanwhile we did no better than -5C and Drummondville just down the 20 from Quebec City was -8C while Quebec City was at plus 4C. Other storm stats: Yarmouth, Nova Scotia had 33cm of snow, and Woodstock, Nova Scotia 45cm. In the wind department, Grand Etang, NS had 163km/h winds, Quebec City 107km/h winds and Montreal gusts of wind in the 50km/h range with the lowest pressure recorded at 997mb. It is still snowing lightly in Montreal, but winds have eased somewhat and visibilities are on the rise.

Storm update

Low visibility and snow covered roads along the St. Lawrence River in Verdun today.

This is the latest information available on tonight's snowstorm. A heavy snowfall warning is now in effect for all of the areas just south of metro Montreal including Vaudreuil, the South Shore and east into the Townships. Winter Storm Warnings remain posted for New York and Vermont. Heavy snow is moving west towards the regions at this hour. Look for the light snow that has been falling all day (a good 5cm worth added to yesterday's 5-7cm) will intensify tonight and continue into Sunday. A total of 15-30cm is possible in Quebec with 25-40cm over New England. Winds have been increasing as well and will gust out of the north at 30-50km/h causing blowing snow. The blowing snow has already been occurring in Montreal with visibilities down to under 2km at times. Another factor has been the dropping temperatures. Montreal was at -4C at midnight, and that was our high. We are currently at -11C with a windchill of -20C. Travel will become poor across the area tonight with near blizzard conditions expected in Vermont. Some milder air will try to make it into the area later tonight. I am not certain that will happen, but time will tell. Travel with great care tonight or even better stay in and have pizza and a cold beer like we are!

Winter Storm Update

Heavy Snowfall Warning: Sherbrooke, Townships, areas south of the St. Lawrence Valley
Winter Storm Warning: Vermont and northern New York counties

Low pressure has finally developed off the southern coast of New England and is slowly moving west towards Maine. This system will be enhanced by a second area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere and become quite intense later today and tonight. Models have it as low as 970mb. The forecast has been very hard to nail down with this system because it is breaking some of the usual rules. The result of the storm moving west will be increasing deep Atlantic moisture across all of our area including eastern Ontario, Quebec and south into New England and New York. Radar is already showing a shift in precipitation, now coming from the northeast to the southwest. I believe any warm air as depicted in the Environment Canada forecast will stay well east of our area. As a matter of fact we are currently -6C here on Ile Perrot, down several degrees from this morning. In addition the snow and wind have been picking up. It will continue to do so for the balance of the day and Sunday. Total storm accumulations will be 25 to 35cm for New England, 20-30cm for the regions south of the St. Lawrence Valley and 15-20cm for all other regions. While no warnings are posted for Montreal, the weather will make travel difficult later today and especially tonight.

Closer to the center of the low, heavy precipitation, fierce winds and a storm surge are affecting coastal Maine and Nova Scotia. Heavy snow is falling inland in New Brunswick and PEI and over the Gaspe. Winds are expected over 150km/h at Cape Breton.

Happy 2010

Above: Cleaning the snow on Ile Perrot today.

Below: AP Photo of the NHL Winter Classic at Fenway Park in Boston.

Happy New Year...year 6 of my weather blog and year 31 of keeping weather data is underway.

Today was quite snowy across the region with a good 4 to 7cm accumulating here on Ile Perrot. The snow was very light and fluffy. The reason for this snow is a low pressure trough draped across the region. The main pulse of energy will move off the New England coast tonight and join forces with a developing storm east of Maine. This low pressure area will retrograde into the Gulf of Maine on Saturday before moving back east out to sea. The result will be steady snow late Saturday into Sunday morning. Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for Vermont and all of upstate New York including the counties bordering our regions. No watches on this side of the border at this time. It appears the snow will remain light but steady for Montreal. By the time the weekend ends a good 15-30cm will accumulate across the area. Winds will pick up as well gusting to 50km/h especially in the Quebec City region. Travel may become difficult late Saturday in snow and blowing snow.

This has been a very changeable forecast and a storm that has not followed any of the rules, so things may still change yet. We should know more by tomorrow morning.

• The NHL Winter Classic was played at historic Fenway Park in Boston today. Despite predictions of stormy weather, it remained calm and mild during the game with near perfect conditions. Over 38,000 fans watched the Bruins beat the Flyers 2-1 in overtime. It was quite the event to watch at the old ballpark.

SNOW

Simply put it will snow all weekend. Radar shows light snow over Eastern Ontario spreading into western Quebec at this hour of 8pm EST. This snow will taper Friday before another shot begins to wrap around a deepening storm near Cape Cod overnight into Saturday. That snow will become steady across the region especially south and east of Montreal. I think most regions of southern Quebec, New England and extreme eastern Ontario will see between 15 and 30cm by the time Monday rolls around. There may even be more at higher elevations. In addition to the snow winds will begin to increase out of the north on Saturday causing blowing snow. It appears that all forecasts are on track now keeping the mild maratime air well to our east meaning the precipitation will stay as snow. Travel safely...Happy New Year....

I may try to squeeze one more post in later on this evening before the bell tolls midnight. Thank you all again for reading. I have had over 37,000 hits this year. It means so much to me to share my passion for weather with all of you.
Be good, be safe... Stephen B.

Happy New Year

What has been a challenging year for so many, comes to an end tonight under partly cloudy skies and scattered flurries in Montreal. I wish everyone a healthy and happy start to 2010, a new year and a new decade. Be safe and please be good to each other...

Environment Canada has put out its annual list of the top 10 weather events for the past year. You can read them HERE.

STORM?
That storm system moving from the deep south towards Nova Scotia is becoming a real pain. Computer models have been all over the place with the forecast for this upcoming weekend. It will snow everywhere from the Ontario/Quebec border south and east. There is the potential for lots of snow in many areas, but where? Well that keeps changing with every model run. My best guess here, reading the area forecast discussions, is that we will have one of those long drawn out snow events lasting from New Years Day well into early next week. Montreal will remain on the western edge of a deepening storm that will move from Nova Scotia back inland across Maine and finally back out to sea. To complicate the forecast even more some models are predicting a warm front to usher in mild maritime air changing some of the precipitation to rain. As a matter of fact the high temperature forecast for Montreal by Environment Canada for Sunday is plus 5C, while the National Weather Service is forecasting highs below freezing for the same area. Whew! Ok so light snow all weekend. Roads will be slippery and snow covered and winds will be increasing from the north during the period. There is the chance for more than 10cm of snow and blowing snow by the end of the weekend. The storm will be far more intense from Quebec City eastward towards the Gaspe if your travels take you there. The forecast is very fluid so check back here often and prepare for winter weather if travelling.

Happy New Year!

New Year - New Storm

Some of the wind blown snow is plowed away (and blown away) in Beaconsfield yesterday.

Lots to talk about this morning in the weather department. First of all it is cold this morning, minus 18C here on Ile Perrot and -20C in the Ottawa area. Yesterday we had a blustery day with lots of blowing snow and biting wind chills around the mid minus twenties.

We can expect a sunny and chilly day today but the wind will ease. Tonight a clipper system approaching from the west will moderate out temperatures and produce a little light snow into New Years Eve. That will be followed by a impressive winter storm taking shape along the east coast of the US. Models have been all over the place with this storm. It is expected to rapidly strengthen east of Cape Cod before retrograding back towards the coast and into northern New England. Many questions are still up in the air regarding precipitation strength and location and wind. The potential does exist for a very heavy snowfall and wind event in the St. Lawrence Valley. The steady snow will begin New Years Day and continue well into the weekend. It is way to soon to pinpoint who will get what, but travel will be greatly impacted. More information will be posted later today on this storm which could be a big one for Montreal and southern Quebec.

• We have a second full moon this month tomorrow night to greet the New Year. The "Full Long Nights Moon" is classified as a "blue moon" because it is the second full moon this month.

• The NHL Winter Classic will be played outside at my favorite ballpark, Fenway Park home of the Red Sox. The game between the Flyers and the Bruins starts at 1pm New Years Day. The weather looks troublesome at this point from the same coastal storm we are concerned about.

Arctic front

An arctic cold front is currently pushing across eastern Ontario heading towards western Quebec. A brief period of heavy snow occurs along the frontal passage and drops several centimetres of snow in a very short period of time. Visibility in snow and blowing snow will drop to less than 1km rapidly. Keep this in mind if travelling the 416, 401, 417, 15, 20 or 40 in the next few hours. Radar is showing the front just west of Ottawa with heavy snow along the 417 to Renfrew. The temperature will fall rapidly with the frontal passage and winds will increase to 30-50km/h out of the northwest. North Bay has already fallen to -18C while Ottawa is -3C and Montreal -1C.

A special weather statement is available HERE. Skies should clear early Tuesday but it will remain windy and bitterly cold. The cold air will remain with us for the balance of the week with a good chance of snow on New Years Day and Saturday.

Winter Weather Advisories

The National Weather Service has posted Winter Weather Advisories for New York and Vermont from 7am Monday until midnight . A winter storm watch for lake effect snow is also posted for numerous counties bordering Lakes Huron, Ontario and Erie on both sides of the border. A potent low pressure trough will slide across the region Monday with a general 5 to 15cm of snow and gusty northwest winds over 50km/h expected in Montreal, Ottawa and points south into the northern US. Conditions will start to deteriorate in the afternoon as the snow becomes heavier and winds increase. In addition to the snow and blowing snow region wide, temperatures will begin to drop to lows by early Tuesday morning of -17C. Travel may become difficult from midday Monday through Tuesday morning along area highways. More snow in the order of 20 to 30cm is expected in the snow squall prone areas around the Great Lakes.

Unsettled week ahead

The most recent rain and freezing rain event appears to be ending across the region with just light drizzle and fog left behind. Most region had an impressive 20 to 30mm of rain and freezing rain with more locally. Hundreds of accidents were reported on icy roads and there were isolated power outages and a few minor transformer fires in the Ottawa Valley. The problem this morning is huge puddles everywhere as the snow blocks drainage paths and the new rain and ice pools on roads. This will become problematic late Monday as an arctic front roars through the region with dropping temperatures. Speaking of that front it will drop a quick 5-10cm of snow in many regions of Ontario, Quebec, New York and Vermont accompanied by dropping temperatures and strong winds. It could be interesting travelling Monday across the area so keep that in mind. Despite all the precipitation that has fallen, today may be the better day of the next three for travel in Ontario and Quebec. In addition to the frontal snow, the lake machine will rev up again with the potential for significant squalls south and east of Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. That would include portions of the St. Lawrence Valley for a spell late Monday and early Tuesday from Brockville to Kingston. I will update this event later today. For the short term the ice is over and conditions are improving. Montreal is currently cloudy and 2C.

Icy Roads

The freezing rain began in the Montreal area just after the noon hour today and has continued most of the day. It fell quite steady around 6pm with several millimetres accumulating on trees and wires. The roads were in decent shape but many of the sidewalks and parking lots were treacherous. As of 11pm the warnings have been dropped for the immediate metro region, but I am still showing 0C with a sleet and freezing rain mixture here on Ile Perrot. Across eastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley the warnings remain in effect, however they have been lowered for Kemptville.

The front will slowly lift north of the region overnight and temperatures should warm to just above freezing allowing the precipitation to be rain. Any untreated roads will remain very slippery.

The photo above is from Merrickville, Ontario. Thanks so much Andy W. for reading and for allowing me to use the photo. The one below is of the sleet and ice accumulating on my car here on Ile Perrot.

Freezing Rain Warning

Steady freezing rain is expected to move into the St. Lawrence Valley overnight and move northeast towards Montreal by noon Boxing Day. Low pressure over Iowa has an occluded front draped to a developing second area of low pressure along the east coast. The combination of both these storms will produce moisture that is falling into the cold air at the surface. Freezing rain is expected to be most prolonged in the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley's where 5-15mm of ice accretion is possible. Winds will be gusting out of the northeast from 30-50km/h keeping temperatures at or below 0C. The freezing rain will last well into the evening on Saturday. Travel will become difficult on Saturday and power outages may be possible as well. Freezing Rain Warnings are in effect for southwestern Quebec and Eastern Ontario with a Winter Storm Warning in place for the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to all...

An active weather pattern is upon us with a major storm lifting north across the central US plains and into the Great Lakes. West of this system arctic air and strong north winds are producing a Christmas blizzard across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin and north into northwest Ontario. Travel is nearly impossible with 30cm of snow and 80 to 100km/h winds. We will remain on the warmer side of the storm with freezing rain and rain. The precipitation has already started in southwest Ontario and is primarily rain. However temperatures at the surface remain below freezing in the St. Lawrence Valley as well as upstate New York and the Ottawa Valley. A winter storm watch is in effect for upstate New York while a freezing rain warning is posted for the Ottawa Valley and east central Ontario. I expect those will be shifted east into Quebec and Montreal. The precipitation will not start till overnight tonight and it will last well into Boxing Day. Look for 5 to 10mm of ice possible, enough to make travel very dangerous Saturday. Afterwards a strong cold front and cold arctic air will sweep the region Sunday with a burst of steady snow into Monday as the cold air deepens. Roads will be snow covered with low visibilities in blowing snow into Monday. Stay tuned for more information and an update on the warnings later today. Lake effect snow will also develop around the Great Lakes on Sunday.

Messy Boxing Day

I want to thank everyone for reading my blog on such a regular basis,

and wish you all a very safe and happy holiday season and a Merry Christmas.

TRACK SANTA NOW WITH NORAD

The weather picture is looking calm in Ontario and Quebec for today and most of Christmas Day. Afterwards a messy low pressure area from Texas will move north towards the central Great Lakes. Two things have happened with this system as the week has moved along. First, much warmer air will be coming north with the storm and secondly it has slowed down somewhat. Therefore the precipitation will start later and we are looking at primarily rain or ice as opposed to snow. Some of the colder more sheltered valley's such as the St. Lawrence and Ottawa may have a prolonged period of freezing rain on Saturday which will make travel very poor and possibly produce some power outages. The good news at this point is that precipitation looks lighter, in the order of perhaps 10 to 15mm. More details need to be ironed out on this forecast and I will update the blog late tonight or early Christmas Day.

Plan accordingly if you are travelling. On Sunday a strong arctic front will move across Ontario and Quebec with gusty winds, snow squalls and dropping temperatures. So travel Sunday into Monday will be no better. Conditions should improve late Monday as the low pressure lifts north and east of the region.

Track Santa

Here is a great site for tracking Santa with a peak at the weather as well...

www.noradsanta.org

Boxing Day Storm

It was a sharply cold morning today with temperatures at -16C at my home on Ile Perrot. I did not expect it to be that cold, add to that a west breeze approaching 20km/h and the air had an edge to it. Ok I am ready for summer now! I used my new snow blower and we are guaranteed a white Christmas so all is well, it can now warm up to 25 or 30C. On that note, in the irony department, places like Washington and Richmond, Virginia as well as large parts of North Carolina will have a white Christmas, while Buffalo, snow capital of North America has no snow cover at all and Burlington, Vermont only has a thin layer on the ground. Bizzaro Christmas!

A weak disturbance today will provide the area with a couple of centimetres of snow into Wednesday. While the accumulations will be minimal, the roads are icing up due to the cold. It should be very pleasant Thursday and Christmas Day with mild temperatures and sunny skies. The weather then becomes a challenge for traveling in Ontario and Quebec late Christmas Day and Boxing Day. As the storm develops over Texas and lifts into the Great Lakes, precipitation will overspread the region. It will begin as snow and then change to freezing rain and eventually rain in southwest Ontario and parts of upstate New York. It appears at this time, and we are several days out, that there will be an extended period of freezing rain possibly dare I say even an ice storm. But as I said, it is still days away and the track remains quite uncertain. There is also the likelihood of another low pressure area developing along the east coast of the US which would complicate the forecast, especially for us here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Stay tuned...but count on decent travel to your destinations, it just may be the return home that is complicated.

Christmas Day storm?

Downtown NYC in the snow Saturday. CNN.com

It was a blizzard for the record books across the middle Atlantic states and up into the extreme coastal areas of the northeast yesterday and today. Heavy snow whipped by 60mph winds fell in a narrow swath from western North Carolina and Virginia through DC and up into New York City, Long Island and Cape Cod. One to two feet of snow fell setting records. Nearly 2 feet fell in Philadelphia beating a record that dated back to 1932. The snow snarled traffic and closed airports in Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia. Over 3000 accidents were reported in Virginia alone, with 3 fatalities. Washington recorded 18 to 22 inches of snow while parts of New York and eastern Massachusetts had 12 to 15 inches. In Suffolk County on the eastern end of Long Island, East Patchogue reported 27.5 inches of snow with 50 mph winds. The storm is now affecting eastern Nova Scotia with heavy snow.

Winter arrives tomorrow at 12:47 EST here in Montreal. It is just a formality as the cold and snow have been with us since the start of the month. This weekend was chilly but sunny across the region with just a few high clouds from the east coast storm. An Alberta clipper may give us a few flurries late Monday and into Tuesday. The real story will be a Texas low pressure area that is forecast to develop and move north towards the Great Lakes by Christmas Eve. This storm is expected to spread snow, freezing rain and rain across the Midwest and into Ontario and Quebec by Christmas Day. If you are travelling this week, please keep this in mind. The best chance of frozen precipitation will be Christmas Day in Ontario and Christmas night and Boxing Day in Quebec. Please check back often as the forecast is still 5 days out and lots can change.

Big storm...to our south

When arctic high pressure meets moisture you get snow, plain and simple. A strong area of high pressure currently over Quebec is producing the coldest air of the season with temperatures this morning in Montreal and eastern Ontario colder than -20C at numerous locations. It will "warm" to the minus teens today, but not much better. The weekend looks fair but cold with an increase in cloud cover and possibly a flurrie or two along the US border. The clouds and flurries will be in response to a big winter storm taking shape over northern Florida today. Last night an amazing 7 to 14 inches of rain fell in Broward County alone. The low pressure will deepen rapidly and move east of Washington D.C. late Saturday. Heavy rain along the coast will mix with and change to very heavy snow just inland. Over 2 feet may fall in the mountains of western North Carolin and Virginia with 6 to 12 inches closer to the coast. The snow will be driven by 30-50mph winds in some cases. A slew of warnings are flying this morning from the southeast all the way north to Long Island and southern New England. There is even a Blizzard watch for Long Island. In addition to the heavy precipitation, the wind will create high surf with the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion. This will be a big and paralyzing storm for many east coast cities so if your travel plans take you there be advised there likely will be major delays and closures. I will update this storm later tonight.

Arctic Chill

Deep cold arctic air is moving into eastern Canada along a cold front today with plenty of instability and breezy conditions. As a result, an area of snow and flurries has developed and has become quite steady in Montreal and along the St. Lawrence Valley. The snow is being enhanced near any body of water as the cold air continues to flood into the region. The snow will continue intermittently for most of the day and a few centimeters may accumulate locally. Roads will become snow covered and slippery in the cold temperatures. We have likely reached our high for the day and temperatures will remain steady or drop slowly. Tonight skies will clear, and with the fresh snow cover temperatures will drop into the minus 20’s in eastern Ontario and southern Québec. It will remain cold right into this weekend.

More fog and ice

Ottawa Citizen photo of the carnage on Highway 416 this morning.

If you are travelling around eastern Ontario and southern Quebec tonight be prepared for icy roads and low visibility in fog. A moist air mass in place is creating ideal conditions for ice fog to form. Fog this morning led to two major multi vehicle collisions on Highway 416 between Ottawa and Manotick. Nearly 70 cars were involved in the crash with only minor injuries reported. The highway was closed for several hours. Similar conditions are possible tomorrow morning along with light snow and freezing drizzle. Radar tonight is showing precipitation in the region along the 20, 401 and 416/417. The air will dry out later in the day and it will turn sharply colder.

-46C!

At one point yesterday, Edmonton International, south of the city centre, was the coldest major city on the planet. The airport hit -46.1C at 5am yesterday morning, and warmed to a sultry -33C for a daytime high. The cold arctic air has the west in its grip with some relief in sight by the end of this week. In the meantime windchill warnings are in effect for all three Prairie provinces. It does not take much of a breeze to produce dangerous wind chills when the temperature is below -30C let alone -40C. The cold has established dozens of records in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The cold air has spread west over the Rockies and along the Pacific Coast. Couple that with moisture moving inland and you get heavy snow, lots of it in Vancouver and Victoria and inland. Some areas will have 20cm along the coast and up to 50cm inland by late Tuesday.

Montreal can expect an arctic front to cross the region Tuesday with a few centimeters of fresh snow and much colder air from Wednesday on. We can expect up to 5cm of snow with the front, along with gusty winds and the risk of some freezing drizzle. Temperatures will drop into the minus teens for the balance of the week.

Yesterday's little episode of snow dumped 7cm in Montreal and 10cm along the 401 at Cornwall. It was far more than the 2-4cm forecast, and it fell in under three hours. Numerous cars hit the ditch as roads became snow packed and visibility dropped to well under 1km. (See below).

Snowy Sunday

Travel southwest along the 401 and 20 was difficult this afternoon. PJ photo

That little bit of "light snow" this afternoon put down a quick 5-10cm of snow in the St. Lawrence Valley between 1 and 5pm this afternoon. I was attempting to drive from Ile Perrot to Kemptville, and gave up at Cornwall. The snow was heavy and wet with significant accumulations on the 401. The visibility in heavy snow was under 1km most of the afternoon with several cars in the ditch and travel slowed to under 70km/h. It has since tapered off to flurries. It is not to often I get caught in a missed forecast but today was one of those days. The warm air never made it down to the surface in the St. Lawrence Valley so instead of the precip changing to rain, it remained snow. The enhancement of the snow was from a frontal trough sliding southeast into New York state.

Light Precipitation

A low pressure passing well north of the region today will slide a frontal trough through the area. A shot of steady precipitation is accompanying the trough in the form of snow and rain with patchy freezing rain. The precipitation should taper off this evening with a total of about 2-4cm of snow and a few showers. There have been freezing rain warnings posted for southern Ontario as well as winter weather advisories for the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.

Once this system moves out another low will enter the region late Monday with yet another round of rain and snow. This will set us up for an Arctic front late Tuesday the will usher in the coldest air of the season and more lake snows for Ontario and New York. Speaking of lake snows, the radar shot above shows one of the plumes of snow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this past week. The wind was so strong aloft and the squalls so intense that they reached into southern Quebec, a distance of over 800km. I have never seen a squall off Lake Huron reach into this region before. The snow fell heavily all the way east to Lanark County where over 30cm fell in Franktown. Closer to the lake shore over 75cm of snow fell in the Grey and Bruce regions as well as the Muskokas. The same was true east of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Snow fell all the way east into Vermont. As much as 4 feet fell on the Tug Hill Plateau south of Watertown and in ski country south of Buffalo. More will fall later this week, but I don't expect them to be as intense.

The snow that fell on Ile Perrot last Thursday depositing a paltry 5cm originated all the way from Lake Huron. Hard to believe for certain.

Weekend Weather

The weekend weather looks windy and chilly for Saturday with another chance of some light snow or flurries for Sunday. Temperatures will be cold Saturday in the -5C range but warm Sunday to near zero.

Yesterday strong winds and the occasional snow squall made travel icy and slow in places across southern Quebec. Believe it or not a couple of centimetres fell on Ile Perrot from a plume of snow extending inland from Lake Huron over 800km to our west. That plume of snow was driven by 100km/h west winds of of all the Great Lakes. The snow piled up nearly 80cm in parts of central Ontario with as much as 20cm all the way east towards Smiths Falls and Lanark County. The Lake Ontario snow band dumped 2 feet of snow on parts of Oswego and Lewis and Jefferson County in western New York and extended as far inland as the Green Mountains of Vermont and the Seaway Valley.

The snow will continue today but shrink to the more traditional spots along the shore lines. Travel today on Interstate 81 and 90 is not advised in the warning areas adjacent to the lakes.

Flurries & Windy

The clean up is underway this morning slowing
morning traffic more than yesterday's storm did!

The big clean up has now begun across the Montreal area from the 28cm of snow that fell yesterday and overnight. It will take 96 hours and over 3000 pieces of equipment to remove the snow from city streets. It will also take 17 million out of the yearly snow budget to carry out the operations.

Another 3-5cm of snow can be expected today. Radar is showing narrow bands of steady snow off Lake Ontario in the traditional snow belts. These snow squalls are being driven unusually far inland by 100km/h winds and reaching far down the St. Lawrence Valley. They should begin to affect the Montreal region this morning. The heaviest snow, measured in feet, will occur in Jefferson and Oswego County in New York. The snow will fall for the next 24 to 36 hours. The same is true off the other Great Lakes. Buffalo even reported a thunderstorm with the snow during the last hour. Snow will also fall along the 401 from Brockville to Kingston.

Other totals from yesterday's storm include 20cm in Cornwall and 22cm in Ottawa. The other factor today will be the surface winds blowing out of the southwest at 40-70km/h in Montreal. They are bringing in much colder air. We have reached our high today of 1C and temperatures will begin to drop. As the snow becomes more granular, blowing snow may also become a problem especially south of the city.

Windy & White

The massive winter storm that has produced heavy snow, rain, wind, thunderstorms and flooding is now over Lake Huron and will slide east across Ontario and Quebec. The storm is dragging a sharp cold front across the region tonight with winds shifting from northeast to southwest and eventually northwest on Thursday. They have been gusting in Ontario to 111km/h at Long Point, 91km/h at Windsor and 74km/h in Toronto. Those same winds will invade the southern portions of Quebec overnight and I expect gusts to 70km/h. The wind will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow. Nearly 22cm of snow has fallen in Montreal (I measured 30cm on my deck here in Ile Perrot) with another 5-10cm quite possible through Thursday morning. Travel will be difficult in rural areas Thursday due to blowing and drifting snow.

In western New York an intense lake effect snow event is about to take place. Strong southwest winds will blow at 30 to 50mph off both Lakes Erie and Ontario and dump 1-3 feet of snow around Buffalo and Watertown, New York. Travel into or through those regions including Interstate 90 and 81 is not advised until at least Saturday.

In addition to the heavy snow, a lake shore flood warning is in effect as Lake Erie is expected to surge over 9 feet high with crashing waves into the shoreline around Buffalo and Niagara.

The pressure in this storm was so low today it resembled that of a Category 2 hurricane. The pressure continues to fall in Montreal and is currently at 987mb. The lowest I saw today in observations on this side of the border was 977mb at Wiarton, Ontario.

Storm Update

Staying ahead of the storm today in Kirkland, Quebec. SB Pic

Our major winter storm is located along the shores of Lake Michigan this afternoon. It has deepened to a 978 mb low with strong winds and intense precipitation. Steady snow continues to fall in Montreal with more than 15cm this morning. A storm total of over 30cm is expected. Winds have been increasing all day in the St. Lawrence Valley. Visibility has been under 1km for most of the morning at Trudeau Airport. The storm has a nasty cold front that is producing severe thunderstorms in western New York this afternoon. The precipitation will become light this evening in our area but continue through the night. Winds will increase as the cold front approaches and cause considerable blowing and drifting snow. The winds could gust to 70km/h late tonight and Thursday. Behind the front arctic air will pour into the region dropping temperatures and producing heavy wind driven lake effect snows in Ontario and New York.