Winter on our doorstep

AccuWeather.com

We can only hold it off for so long, winter that is, and big changes are on the horizon. Cold air has enveloped most of western Canada and it slowly moving east. This morning it is -23C in Calgary, and -20C in both Edmonton and Regina. The cold will continue into next week across the west while slowly beginning to invade the east. A small clipper system will skirt along the US border tonight with scattered flurries and eventually showers in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Clipper systems are fairly weak with moisture limited to the immediate track, but a centimetre or two is quite possible in some locations, especially north of the city. Winds can be gusty with these low pressure areas and they will be tonight and Saturday. The light snow tonight will mix with rain by daybreak and eventually end Saturday morning. Temperatures will be chilly today but rise above freezing overnight. Winds will out of the southwest from 40-70km/h by Saturday morning, and slowly diminish by late in the day tomorrow.

Sunday another weak low will bring a similar weather day with flurries and showers mixed. The really cold air is expected to move into our region by late next week with the potential for a major storm to move from the deep south towards the Great lakes with snow and rain by Thursday in Ontario and Quebec. The first outbreak of lake effect snow is also quite possible by next Friday. This scenario has all the ingredients to become a reality, it will all depend on timing. I would keep this in mind and finish preparing your car and home for winter this weekend.

Prairie snow & cold

It has been a challenging forecast week as it can be at this time of the year. It remains quite warm over the southern US while mid-winter arctic cold is surging south into the prairies and northern plains states. Anytime that happens the weather becomes interesting and challenging. The difference of a few hundred miles in the trajectory of a storm system can be the difference between the warm side or cold side of the storm.

So lets wrap up this last storm that moved across our region and is now in Atlantic Canada. it dropped about 30mm of rain in Montreal with the lowest pressure recorded of 991mb, so a decent storm but not the worst by any measure. The winds became quite strong on the backside of the system late last night with gusts over 60km/h around the city. Today we are expecting a few sunny breaks and steady, cool temperatures around 4C. It will remain breezy from the west at 30-50km/h. Tonight clear skies and cold with overnight lows around -3C. Friday will start off sunny but then an Alberta Clipper will bring a little wet snow or showers, with some gusty winds by evening. After a fair but chilly day Saturday, the same will happen again Sunday before a warmer southern system brings showers and mild temperatures to start next week. There remains the possibility of colder weather and significant snow by weeks end next week but that is far away at this time.

Shifting to the west, another blast of cold air is producing widespread snow this morning from Calgary to Winnipeg. A narrow band of 10-15cm is likely along the Trans Canada corridor with gusty winds and poor visibility. The cold air will deepen tonight with temperatures dropping to -20C and wind chills as cold as -25C in Calgary and Edmonton. That cold will spread as far east as northwest Ontario, but that is it for the time being.


It took many residents of Calgary hours to get to and from work yesterday as winter takes hold of the southern Rockies and Prairies. CTV.ca

Colder weather on the way

Update 11AM : URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1109 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...
* LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.
(this will impact the St. Lawrence Valley of Ontario and extreme southwest Quebec as well.)
* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. (50-90km/h)
* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PEAK DURING THE 10 PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

Steady rain continues to fall in Montreal this morning and across eastern Ontario as strong low pressure lifts north across Lake Ontario and down the St. Lawrence Valley. Over 25mm of rain has been reported from the metro region north and west with heavier amounts locally including 53mm at Kingston, ON, since late yesterday. The rain will continue all day today with steady, mild temperatures around 12C. Winds are beginning to pick up on the back side of this storm across southern Ontario and these will spread east today. Southwest winds will gust between 30-60km/h with some gusts along area shorelines near 80km/h. A quick scan of the obs for Ontario shows gusts to 72km/h at Goderich, 71km/h at Long Point, 59km/h at Hamilton and 41km/h in Ottawa. Conditions will not improve until later tonight and overnight. It will turn much colder tomorrow with highs only reaching 5C. After a break in the weather Thursday and Friday, a couple of clipper systems will begin to affect the region. These storms will bring the threat of rain and snow showers to Montreal but most importantly will usher in much colder air. There is the potential for measurable snow next week here in the east that could disrupt US Thanksgiving travel, so stay tuned for more on that.

SNOW & COLD
The first arctic cold outbreak of the season has spread south across Alberta and Saskatchewan over the last 24 hours. Low pressure moved across the southwest corner of Saskatchewan and into Montana with steady snow and blowing snow. A general 10-15cm was reported with low visibilities and icy roads causing numerous accidents in Calgary and points east. The cold has really established itself this morning with temperatures in the minus teens. It will warm very little today as another clipper brings 5-10cm of snow and a reinforcing shot of cold air. Temperatures will drop into the -20's in Alberta tonight. The snow and cold will spread east along the Trans Canada towards Manitoba. Travel will be poor in blowing snow across southern Saskatchewan on Thursday.

Image from CTV.ca

Rain and thunder

From the Weather Network, snow in Calgary this morning.

Radar is showing steady rain moving into the St. Lawrence Valley at 10pm. The rain will continue overnight with even a rumble or two of thunder. Low pressure will lift into the Ohio Valley and then across Eastern Ontario tonight and Wednesday. Heavy rain is expected along the path of the system in Ontario and Quebec with 30-50mm forecast. As the storm strengthens winds will increase out of the southwest and gradually back to the northwest from 40-60km/h with some gusts to 80km/h forecast on Wednesday. Wind advisories are in effect for portions of New York and Vermont.

Meanwhile snow and blowing snow from the first prairie storm are now winding down as low pressure races into Montana. Between 10-15cm of snow fell in Calgary and eastward towards Maple Creek and south into the Cypress Hills today. Gusty winds and rapidly dropping temperatures made for icy roads and mid-winter conditions. Another storm is expected to drop into Alberta from BC tomorrow and produce 5-10cm of snow in the same regions with gusty winds and more frigid cold.

Western snow - Eastern rain

By the way, it is now officially the Holiday Season. The Tim Hortons Christmas cups are out! I received my first this morning.

The tranquil weather of the last few days is about to come to an end here in the east. Low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will lift northeast towards the St. Lawrence Valley. It will bring with it a swath of steady rain that is increasing in coverage and intensity this morning. Environment Canada has posted heavy rainfall warnings for the regions just north of Montreal and the Ottawa Valley. Rain will begin this evening and become heavy overnight. Rainfall accumulations of 30-50mm are expected in the warning area with 25-35mm elsewhere including Montreal. The system is strengthening and so are the winds associated with it. Look for winds to increase from the south and southeast between 30-60km/h with stronger gusts over the higher elevations. Winds will back around to the northwest Wednesday but remain strong. Temperatures will be mild at first but begin to lower on Wednesday. There is even the risk of an isolated thunderstorm across the area tonight.

Meanwhile the opposite is occurring in the west with winter storm warnings in effect for southwest Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. This morning snow is falling in Calgary with north winds gusting to 54km/h and a temperature of -7C. Winds are howling in southern Alberta over 70km/h with low visibility in blowing snow. The snow and strong winds will move into Saskatchewan early this morning with 15cm or more of snow expected in the Cypress Hill and from Swift Current west to the Alberta border. In addition to the snow, bitter cold is descending south and east behind the storm. Look for the coldest air of the season to spread across the west and eventually into Ontario. Low temperatures will be in the minus teens for the rest of the week with daytime highs no better than -5C. The air will modify slightly before reaching Quebec but it will still be cold enough for some snow by Sunday.

Arctic blast

It was a spectacular weekend across Ontario and Quebec. Montreal was sunny and mild with perfect weather for any outdoor activity, be it work or play. I spent the weekend getting the house ready for snow and cold and firing up the snow blower to make sure all is well. It was timely because major changes are on the way from the west coast and eventually to the east.

Starting today, a weak frontal boundary has produced some showers in Montreal, with very mild temperatures. We will slowly clear out this afternoon and remain that way into Tuesday. Meanwhile a clipper system backed by a potent arctic air mass is developing in the west and expected to track across BC and into Alberta, Saskatchewan and Montana. This storm will produce an area of steady snow late Tuesday into Wednesday from Calgary to Swift Current and points south. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted in both provinces. Even outside the warning area snow and blowing snow will make travel difficult. High winds and dropping temperatures will develop as well with near blizzard conditions forecast for the Trans Canada Highway. From 15-25cm of snow is forecast with temperatures plunging to colder than -10C behind the storm in places like Edmonton and Calgary. The low pressure will eventually spread across to the east with colder air moving onto Quebec and Ontario by Friday.

In the meantime our weather will be coming from low pressure developing along the US Gulf Coast. Rain late Tuesday and Wednesday will bring between 15-25mm to the city. That will be followed by breezy conditions and dropping temperatures by Friday. By next weekend high temperatures will likely stray below freezing in Montreal with the chance of snow showers.

Outer Banks flooding

As many of you already know I vacation on Hatteras Island each spring. The narrow strip of islands known as the Outer Banks of the Carolina coast is very vulnerable to storms and flooding. This afternoon stubborn low pressure way off the east coast is sending long northeast swells towards the coastline with major ocean overwash being reported along Hatteras Island. Coastal flooding has forced closure of Highway 12 south of Oregon Inlet with the highway underwater at the S Curves in the Village of Rodanthe. I have posted an image from the web cam in Rodanthe that shows NC 12 under water as the Atlantic Ocean surges past dunes and homes. Seas will continue to build this afternoon, with flooding expected at high tide all weekend long. Winds will gust to 30 mph and seas will build to 15 to 17 feet. A Coastal Flood Warning and Surf Advisory are in effect for the Outer Banks and other portions of the North Carolina coast.

Weekend Update

Another brilliant day is expected in Ontario and Quebec today with bright sunshine and mild temperatures. After a very chilly start this morning we should warm to between 10 and 13C across the region. It will be cold again tonight well below freezing between between -3 and -5C. Saturday will be sunny and mild once again with highs close to 10C. Take advantage of this weekend to get your home and car ready for winter because it is coming. Signs are pointing to a much different end to the month then the start has been. Much of October and November have been well above normal across the country. That is changing as we see arctic air moving southward into the prairies. Regina is only -12C this morning with snow on the ground, but the coldest air is still to the north.

An Alberta clipper next week will move from west to east across the country with showers on the east side of the system and snow and much colder temperatures behind it. I expect a very different forecast by next weekend then the one we are seeing here in Montreal today. It is still too early to tell how far south or how cold the air will be but I expect it will be cold enough for snow. We may see low pressure develop as well along the east coast drawing in more cold air, but again we will have to wait a few more days for that to evolve in the forecast models.

Take time to Remember

It is November 11, Remembrance Day 2010. It was always a very important day in my family. My late father taught us to respect the sacrifices that had been made by so many young men and women so that we could enjoy the freedom and life we do today in this great country of ours. We always wore a poppy and attended a service every year. They often had the service in downtown Montreal on the Sunday before the 11th and dad would take me each year.

SUNSHINE: The weather will be sunny today across the entire region with mild temperatures pushing 10C. The sunshine will continue into the weekend with above normal temperatures. Yesterday record highs were scattered across northern and central Ontario on the eastern flank of a prairie snowstorm. That storm produced cold and 10-20cm of snow in Regina and points south and east closing several highways and canceling flights at Regina airport. Gusty winds made travel difficult with many cars and trucks in the ditch. RCMP were not recommending travel along the Trans Canada. The snow and freezing rain has shifted into northern Manitoba today.

THE EDMUND FITZGERALD
"The Captain wired in he had water coming in And the good ship and crew was in peril
And later that night when his lights went out of sight, Came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald."
Gordon Lightfoot
© 1976 Moose Music, Inc.
Image from (www.3dfitz.com)

It was 35 years ago yesterday, November 10, 1975, that the iron ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald went down in a fierce storm on Lake Superior. While weather played a definite role, the exact details of the sinking of the ship remains a mystery today, it went down quickly and with very little warning, taking 29 lives with her. The sinking was caused in part by a strong November Gale or "November Witch". We experienced an early season example of this last month when that big record breaking storm swept across the Great Lakes. The 1975 storm was intense with 20 foot waves on Lake Superior and winds gusting over 50 knots. The severe weather was confined to area along the immediate trajectory of the storm and especially rough in the waters of eastern Lake Superior exactly where the Edmund Fitzgerald was. It was a case of the wrong place at exactly the wrong time. The storm was known as a weather bomb with dropping pressure from 1000mb over Kansas to 978mb over James Bay within 24 hours. The rapid intensification caught the ship and its crew almost without warning. A memorial service was held yesterday at Whitefish Point, Michigan, not far from the final resting place of the majestic ship and her crew of 29 brave men. The ship is in 162 metres of water just inside the Canadian boundary.

Sunshine returns

Low pressure over the western Atlantic will loosen its grip on the region today as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Sunshine and gradually warmer temperatures will prevail right into this upcoming weekend. Temperatures will warm from 7C today to 12 or 13C by the weekend. Some fog may develop in the evening with the rapidly cooling temperatures with frost expected each morning. We has some very dense fog in places after sunset last night including Ile perrot, but it dissipated once the air stabilized later in the evening.

That storm is question has dropped so much rain on Atlantic Canada in the last week. Major flooding continues, especially in and around Yarmouth with rivers on the rise, homes flooded and numerous roads and bridges washed out. Over 215mm has fallen in Yarmouth since Thursday with a remarkable 339mm in Mechanic Settlement, New Brunswick.

Across the west snow has made a return into portions of Saskatchewan. Low pressure over North Dakota is producing record warmth on the east side of the storm with snow and blowing snow on the backside. Regina southeast into Weyburn and Estevan is expecting 5-10cm of snow with some freezing drizzle. Estevan was 19C just 48 hours ago and is now at -1C with freezing drizzle. Roads are snow covered and slippery with poor visibility across the southeast portion of the province and south int North Dakota and Montana. Meanwhile record highs will occur in Minnesota east to Illinois today with highs near 70F.

Sunshine returns

Icy roads slowed traffic in Vermont yesterday. (WPTZ image)

We are in for a beautiful stretch of fall weather this week after the clouds and drizzle clear out today. Low pressure is pulling away from the New England coast this morning after drenching the area with 10-20mm of rain, snow and ice. Numerous accidents were reported yesterday along the Vermont/Quebec border and points south according to police after 2-5mm of ice was deposited on area roads. Atlantic Canada and Maine were hit even harder with strong winds, high surf and torrential rains, in some cases almost 300mm.

The system will pull away from the region today with slow clearing from the west and warmer temperatures. High pressure will dominate with sunshine and warm temperatures for the balance of the work week. Look for daytime highs close to 10C and overnight lows near 0C for the week in Montreal as well as eastern Ontario and northern New England. The next threat for rain will not be until next weekend.

Icy roads in Vermont

Low pressure near Cape Cod continues to push moisture west into New England and southern Quebec. A cold rain has developed in Montreal this afternoon, but we managed to avoid the ice. In the Townships and Vermont numerous reports of sleet and freezing rain were observed today including in Burlington. Roads were icy and travel difficult along I-89 through the Champlain Valley and points south and east. Frozen precipitation is even falling across New York along I-87 south towards Albany. Temperatures will very slowly warm above freezing tonight with showers and drizzle tapering off by morning. Winds will be gusty at times from the north 20-40km/h.

Jesse Ferrell on his AccuWeather blog posted an awesome graphic today of just how the moisture from the remains of hurricane Tomas is feeding into this system producing all the flooding rain across Atlantic Canada and today's snow and ice in New England and Quebec. The image is on the right, and you can clearly see the plume of moisture moving north into Canada and the US.

Surprise Nor'easter

A stubborn area of low pressure has been meandering around Atlantic Canada since Thursday. It had pulled far enough east to allow for sunshine yesterday, but is slowly retrograding southwest this morning. We were expecting sunshine today, but cloud cover has already moved into Montreal and precipitation is into Quebec City and the Townships. The storm is centered over the Gulf of Maine and will slide southwest towards Cape Cod. Precipitation in the form of freezing rain and some snow will fall across the Townships south into the Green Mountains. Winter Weather Advisories and Freezing Rain Warnings are in effect for those areas. If you must travel there, allow extra time or hold off until after the lunch hour. I expect that the precipitation will reach Montreal by noon and it should be in the form of rain. Winds will be increasing as well out of the north and northeast to 50km/h and as high as 70km/h in Quebec City.

This same storm has produced major flooding in Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. Copious amounts of rain have fallen since Thursday with 291.8 mm at Mechanic Settlement, NB, and 202 mm at Yarmouth. A state of emergency has been declared in many areas with roads washed out and homes flooded. The plume of moisture has been driven north along a frontal boundary from the tropics, and the remains of hurricane Tomas. Another 20-40mm may fall today.

As much as 15-25mm of rain may fall in the Townships with 10-15mm in Montreal. I expect the frozen precipitation will accumulate about 2-5mm of ice in the Townships and possibly 2-5cm of snow in Quebec City.

Freezing Rain - Townships and Green Mountains

NWS image of low pressure sending moisture westward towards Vermont, NY, and Quebec. Tomas is in the lower right side of the image.

Freezing Rain Warning (Sherbrooke, Eastern Townships & travel along Highway 10)

Winter Weather Advisory (Adirondacks/Green Mountains & travel along I-89, I-91, I-87)

I knew it would be a challenging forecast this weekend and it has lived up to expectations. Low pressure moved well east of the region Friday and skies began to clear out sooner than expected. The result was a beautiful November day across the region Sunday with sunny skies and chilly temperatures. It will not last. It appeared high pressure over the Great Lakes would nudge into the region and clear us out for the entire upcoming week. It will do that eventually, but first developing low pressure near Cape Cod is expected to retrograde back towards the coast and do a loop over southern New England. The system is tapping into deep tropical moisture including that from what is left of hurricane Tomas over the open waters of the Atlantic. That moisture will be pushed westward over the Green Mountains and into southern Quebec. Cloud cover will be on the increase from the east with precipitation developing by morning over Vermont and just edging into southern Quebec and extreme eastern New York. As the precipitation begins temperatures will still be at or below freezing Monday morning. Mixed precipitation including freezing rain is expected and a Freezing Rain Warning is in effect for the eastern Townships along the Vermont and New Hampshire border. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Green Mountains and Adirondacks. All precipitation should change to rain by noon and taper off late in the day. The balance of the week will be fair with slowly warming temperatures. At this time it looks like just a scattered shower or two for Montreal but that may change if the system is drawn further west.

Weekend Update

Clouds, drizzle and fog broke for a minute or two in Williston, Vermont to allow for a spectacular sunset Friday evening. ValleyWX

Skies have rapidly cleared out this morning behind that coastal storm and temperatures have responded by dropping below freezing in Montreal at minus 2C. Across Vermont and the Townships, clouds remain in place and temperatures are slightly warmer. You have to go much further east to encounter any precipitation. The low pressure in question is over Atlantic Canada with any heavy rain confined to that region. Meanwhile in the broader circulation of this system, some wet snow is falling in the snow belts of the Great Lakes and as far south as the North Carolina mountains. Some regions in the most persistent snow across central Ontario, Michigan and northern Indiana had as much as 3 inches of wet snow.

The rainfall was steady but light in our area yesterday with around 15mm in Montreal. The rain was much heavier across Nova Scotia where upwards of 100mm has fallen with more expected. A plume of moisture is running from the tropics straight into Nova Scotia. Another 50 to 80mm are possible with warnings in place. Pounding surf is also affecting coastal regions. The moisture is part of Tropical Storm Tomas that has been dropping copious amounts of rain on Haiti and the Turks and Cacaos. Flooding is occurring in earthquake devastated Port au Prince.

A cold rain

It looks like the snow threat has diminished for the region. It will be close, very close, but not this time, look for a cold rain and gusty northeast winds. A deep low pressure trough is sliding east across the Great Lakes today and will meet with low pressure moving north along the US coast. The system should be near New York City tonight and deepen rapidly as it slowly moves into New England. Heavy rain will develop across New York and Vermont today and spread north towards the Quebec border. Montreal should have showers today and a steady rain tonight into Friday. By Friday much colder air will begin to wrap into the western side of the system with rain changing to a period of wet snow before ending late Friday. The best chance for accumulating snow will be across Eastern Ontario and upstate New York, but even there it does not look like much. Saturday will be raw and chilly with scattered flurries. Temperatures will be fairly mild today at around 6C but much cooler Friday dropping into the 2 or 3C range and remaining there for Saturday. Skies should slowly begin to clear on Sunday and the start of next week looks awesome with milder temperatures and sunshine Monday through at least Wednesday.

Radar this morning is showing the steady rain into the southern tier of New York state and southern New England. There are also showers moving across Ontario, and they should arrive her by noon. Winds will be increasing as well across the St. Lawrence Valley.

East Coast Storm?

At left: The expected path of Tomas across Haiti by late Friday.

Could we have an east coast storm that will produce the first snowstorm of the season over Quebec?

It is the coldest morning of the season thus far across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec this morning. Ile Perrot was at -4C, while the airport was -2C. Further southwest St Anicet was -5C and Kemptville was -5C as well. In New York temperatures were even colder with -6C at Plattsburgh. Skies were clear and will remain so all day today with milder temperatures, near 8C and light winds. This will be the best weather day until Sunday.

Computer models have been all over the place with our weekend forecast from the start of the week. A complicated series of low pressure areas at the surface and aloft will begin to take shape along the east coast of the US. They will lift north into New England by early Friday. This will set the stage for an appreciable amount of precipitation over out area along with cool temperatures. The precipitation will start as rain on Thursday but will likely become a mix of rain and snow into Friday. It is too soon to predict amounts, but it looks like enough snow to measure, especially north of Montreal and Quebec City.

TOMAS: We have a little good news to report as far as Tomas goes. The once hurricane has been downgraded at this time to a tropical depression. The system is meandering south of Haiti and Jamaica with minimal winds according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters still expect the storm to regain strength as early as this evening and move from southwest to northeast across Haiti by weeks end. Regardless of the wind, this storm will bring a tremendous amount of rain to Haiti with the potential for flooding and mudslides. We need to watch this very closely.

AM flurries PM sunshine

It is a typical November morning in the St. Lawrence Valley and across New York and Ontario. I had frost on Ile Perrot at -1C but it was above freezing downtown. For those of us who cleared out early this morning, we had frost and temperatures just below freezing. Locations the held onto the cloud cover from Montreal east and south are just above freezing with no frost but there are some flurries in the Townships and northern Vermont. Clearing will take place today from west to east as high pressure moves into the region. It will be clear and cold tonight dropping below freezing to -2C or so. Wednesday will be the best day of the week with abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures in the 8C range.

The balance of the week looks unsettled with a rather difficult weather forecast setting up into the weekend. Low pressure is expected to develop along the southeast US coast and move towards New England on Thursday. Another area of low pressure is expected to follow the first one across New England as well by the weekend. The only sure thing at this point is there will be clouds and precipitation from Thursday into the weekend. The type and amount are up in the air and dependent on the track of the low pressure areas. I believe rain will dominate on Thursday with a showery Friday. It looks like snow may be in the picture for Saturday. More on that as the weekend draws closer.

Chilly start to November

A spectacular western sky at sunset tonight in Pointe Claire, Quebec. ValleyWX Photo

Sorry folks, it was not the best of Mondays, and I was unable to update the blog this morning.

It feels like we have turned the corner in the weather department with the end of October and Christmas just 7 weeks away. I put the winter tires on this past weekend just in time for the few centimetres of snow that fell on Saturday night. Halloween was chilly and windy, but we still had over 150 kids visit our home. Montreal reached 7C today under mostly cloudy skies. We had a few sunny breaks towards sunset but also a shower or two in the region. Both combined for a spectacular sky at sunset (see above). Our week will become rather unsettled as low pressure is expected to produce rain and snow by Thursday. Until then high pressure will control our weather with sunny skies and cool weather.

Tropical storm Tomas has weakened tonight but is expected to regain hurricane strength later this week as it moves across the Caribbean Sea. The storm is moving westward with 45mph winds, 105km northeast of Aruba. The storm is forecast to make a sharp turn and move across Haiti from southwest to northeast. Only one other storm has moved across the country in a similar path and that was Hazel in 1954. It is a troublesome forecast at this point for the island nation that is still trying to recover from the devastating January earthquake. We will have to watch the storm carefully but all indications are that the storm will strengthen and make that turn withing the next few days and approach Haiti and the Dominican Republic by weeks end as at least a category 1 storm or perhaps stronger.

**I had a question about where to find daily highs and lows. You can visit the Environment Canada website HERE or Climate Quebec HERE

Happy Halloween

The sun is flirting with the clouds on this chilly Halloween in Montreal. The wet snow tapered off after midnight with around 2cm or so at my home on Ile Perrot. Radar at noon is showing some flurries around, especially across eastern Ontario, but very good sunny breaks thrown in as well. For the most part the weather will be decent for Trick or Treating, however It will be chilly. I expect temperatures across the region to be in the 1C to 3C range to start and dropping to or just below freezing by the end of the evening. Bundle of the kids tonight and have a safe, fun and Happy Halloween.

Tropical Atlantic: The tropics became very active over the past day or so with two named systems. Tropical storm Shary brushed Bermuda and rapidly moved off to the northeast over the open waters of the north Atlantic while losing her tropical characteristics. Meanwhile a potent storm has developed in the Caribbean Sea, Tomas, and is 290 km west of St. Lucia. At present Tomas has 90 mph winds and is moving WNW at 9 mph. The storm is forecast to remain at minimal strength until the middle of next week when conditions will be more favorable for strengthening. The storm has the potential to become a major hurricane and affect Cuba. Afterwards we could be looking at an east coast system but it is way to early to determine that.

First SNOW

10PM Update: The picture is grainy, but you get the idea. Snow is still falling here off the western tip of Montreal island. The temperature is currently 1C at my home. Surprisingly it is 0C at the airport but the observer is still reporting light rain. The snow is sticking to cars, trees and our lawn but not the pavement at this time. Watch for icy and slippery spots as the snow continues into the overnight period and the temperatures chill a degree or two more.

Update 8:05pm: As of 8pm the temperature has dropped to 1.7C here on Ile Perrot and the rain has changed to snow. It is still raining at the airport at 0.8C.

Low pressure and associated cold front is moving across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening. Cool air is spilling into the region and changing rain to snow across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. At 7pm snow is falling in Ottawa at 0C and the temperature has dropped to 1C with light rain in Montreal. The rain should change to snow here before 9pm. Look for light wet snow to continue into the overnight hours. Accumulations will be from 2-4cm locally with higher amounts of 5-10cm across the higher elevations of upstate New York and Vermont. If you are travelling tonight watch for slick spots and lower visibility in any snow. At this time Halloween Sunday looks breezy and chilly with just a chance of showers for the trick or treaters.

Weekend Update

This update will short this morning as real life if getting in the way of weather. I hate that! That big Great Lakes storm of this past week is slowly filling over northern Quebec, but not before another very windy day on Thursday. Peak gusts were over 80km/h in Ontario and even a gust to 71km/h out of the southwest in Montreal at the lunch hour yesterday were observed. Today will be much cooler over the region with temperatures struggling to reach the 7C mark. Showers are possible and even a few flurries by late in the day. It will drop close to the freezing point tonight with some flurries or wet snow, especially over the higher elevations of NY and Vermont.

Saturday will be cloudy, chilly and breezy with flurries or showers. Skies will clear and it will be cold for Halloween with a high of only 4C.

Indian Summer?

It has been a rather interesting weather week to say the least. That massive western storm has been controlling the weather across North America. Besides the obvious, heavy snow, strong winds, record low barometric pressure and 2 dozen or so tornadoes, the temperatures have been on a wild ride. Montreal reached 20C just short of the record high for the day on Wednesday. This was after we struggled for nearly 24 hours to clear 9C. We finally surged into the mid teens at 3am yesterday morning. The same thing occurred last night as we dropped to an overnight low of 10C and then rose to 16C at 3am. Keep in mind the normal high for October 28 is only 9C. Usually Indian Summer happens after our first frost and involves two or three days of dry and warm weather before the snow flies. While this has been a slightly abbreviated version, it still may loosely qualify as our Indian Summer for 2010. This may be it folks get out and enjoy the weather!

All this is being caused by the slowly weakening western storm that is now moved north over James Bay. The storm will slowly slide eastward into Quebec over the next few days and eventually draw much colder air into out region. Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds today and a few showers by tonight. It will be windy out of the southwest today gusting to 50km/h with gale warning posted on area rivers and lakes. The temperature will be very mild at 16C. Tonight showers will persist with cooler weather moving in. The mercury will struggle to make it to only 7C Friday. By late Friday and early Saturday the region will flirt with the freezing mark with possibly a few flurries.

**By the way, at 8am this morning we were 14C while Regina was -14C.

"Great Lakes Cyclone"

Update: I was just checking the weather at the airport in Regina, Saskatchewan. They are currently -3C with blowing snow. The visibility in the last hour finally rose above 1km for the first time in the last 24 hours. The winds have been gusting over 85km/h and sustained at over 60km/h since midday yesterday. Wind chills have been between -10 and -13C and the lowest pressure recorded with this storm was 994mb. Now how is that for October.

From CTV.ca Trucks remained parked in a Regina parking lot after the Trans Canada Highway became to dangerous to travel on.

"As of 2 PM Central, Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport, Minnesota has now dipped to 28.27" sea-level pressure, breaking the lowest pressure ever observed in the interior U.S."
Jesse Ferrell AccuWeather

Wow, what a storm system for October. Perhaps an indication of things to come. A storm this strong has only happened once before and usually similar storms occur in November. But here we are with a pre-Halloween monster. The storm in question has pulled into northwestern Ontario this morning. The circulation around the system is driving unseasonably warm air north on the east side of the system and driving cold air south on the backside.

At about 3am this morning the winds turned out of the northeast to the south in Montreal and the temperature finally responded shooting up to 17C at 5am on October 27, unreal. Needless to say things are quite different in southeast Saskatchewan and North Dakota where fierce winds and about 15cm of snow have made travel very difficult. The winds have gusted over 80km/h at times dropping visibility to less than 1km. Conditions should very slowly improve today. Over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario, most precipitation has stopped but the winds continue to blow. Storm warnings are posted on the lakes themselves with high wind advisories and warnings over land. They will gust up to 100km/h today. Here in the St. Lawrence Valley look for a windy day as well but below warning criteria in the 40-60km/h range. Temperatures will be warm at 18C with sunny breaks.

Across the Midwest they will be picking up the pieces today from widespread damage to homes and power lines. At least one dozen tornadoes were reported yesterday from Ohio and Michigan across Illinois and into Minnesota and Wisconsin. In northern Minnesota the rain has change to snow with strong winds this morning.

Storm sweeps east

Snow on the Pumpkin in Regina today. (Global)

That record breaking low pressure area is located over northern Wisconsin this evening and is expected to lift into northwest Ontario overnight. The storm bombed out deepening by 24mb in 24 hours Monday into today. The most recent pressure was an unbelievable 957mb making it one of the strongest storms ever over this portion of the continent.

Snow continues to fall on the backside of the system over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. As of 7pm, 5-10cm had fallen in the Regina and Moose Jaw area with 15cm or more from Weyburn north to Yorkton and east to the Manitoba border. The snow is being driven around by strong winds producing whiteout conditions on area highways. Weyburn reported a gust to 76km/h this afternoon, and most other areas have been in the 50-70km/h range making it nearly a blizzard. South of the border heavy thunderstorms and tornadoes produced widespread damage and power outages from the Dakotas eastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin and into Michigan. Winds gusted to hurricane force in Chicago causing massive delays at O'Hare. The winds also cut power to nearly 200,000 homes across the Midwest.

In Ontario heavy rain and strong winds moved across the southwest and the GTA this afternoon and are now swinging into eastern Ontario along the trailing cold front. It was very warm in Ontario today and along the Quebec border with New York, reaching over 20C. The warm air could never chase the fog, clouds and northeast winds out of Montreal, and we remained around 10C and have slipped to 9C with rain and fog at 8pm. The cold front will move across Montreal island overnight with showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Powerful Midwest Storm

12:45 pm Update: Low clouds, northeast winds and fog continue to hold the temperature down in Montreal. We are currently at 10C while Ottawa is 17C behind the warm front. A powerful storm over the western Great Lakes is providing wild weather from the prairies to Ontario. Severe thunderstorms have produced at least a dozen tornadoes and funnel clouds across the upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorm watches are now in effect for southwest Ontario. Winds are gusting to 100km/h around the system. In Saskatchewan, rain has changed to snow and visibilities have dropped to under 1km in Moose Jaw and Regina with snow and blowing snow. Several bloggers including the Weather Channel are reporting a new state low barometric pressure record for Minnesota (962.1 mb) as of 11:30 this morning, beating the record from November 1998.

An early season Midwest storm is gathering strength as it moves across northern Minnesota this morning. The storm was responsible for 10-15cm of snow from central Alberta and Edmonton yesterday and southeast into Saskatchewan this morning. As the low pressure deepens winds are increasing across southeast Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Look for rain to change to snow today and become steady from Regina into Weyburn and Estevan and east into southern Manitoba. The heavy snow will also fall across North Dakota. Winter Storm Warnings are posted for southeast Saskatchewan, while Blizzard warnings are in effect for North Dakota. Travel will be very difficult in that region today and is not advised. The storm will produce strong winds up to 100km around the center from the Great Lakes westward into the Prairies. As the system slides east, strong winds and rain with thunderstorms will move into southern Ontario and eventually southern Quebec and New England. Today the focus will be on the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest where heavy rain will be driven by storm force winds. Pressure records are in jeopardy across Minnesota as the storm continues to deepen. According to Jesse Ferrell at AccuWeather.com , computer models are predicting a pressure below 28.50" or the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane. Strong winds on the east side of the storm are pushing warm weather into the east with highs forecast between 15 and 20C for Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Meanwhile temperatures will drop to or below freezing on the backside of the storm from Regina to Winnipeg.

This morning winds are out of the south gusting to 46mph at Chicago on the east side of the storm while in western North Dakota and Montana they are out of the northwest at 35mph with snow and blowing snow. Montreal has slowly warmed to 8C with fog while Ottawa is up to 14C this morning. With a little luck the warm air will move into the valley and we should see 15 or 16C in Montreal with some breaks. Winds and precipitation will increase in Quebec tomorrow as the storm approaches. By Halloween we will be on the backside of the system with flurries and cool weather, but it looks better for the trick or treaters than it did 24 hours ago.

Unsettled week ahead

From Oregon.com, heavy snow fell yesterday across the Cascades of the Pacific northwest.

A stubborn warm front remains to our south this morning, with light drizzle, fog and cool temperatures across the St. Lawrence Valley. The warm front and associated low pressure area should lift north of the region by later tonight with temperatures slowly on the rise. We are around 4C this morning but look for temperatures to warm to 11C by late in the day and stay there overnight. It will be very mild on Tuesday and Wednesday close to 18C with some regions especially upstate New York and the Champlain Valley hitting the 21C (70F) mark. A cold front will sweep the region by late Thursday with dropping temperatures and cloudy skies. It is early yet in the week but Halloween looks cloudy with showers. I expect that may change. With the warmer air moving in from the south there may even be a thunderstorm anytime this week. The best chance will be today and again late Wednesday and Thursday. Some sunshine may also peak in Tuesday but there will not be much blue sky this week.

A big Pacific storm was responsible for heavy rain and strong winds along the BC coast this weekend. It also brought the first big snowfall to portions of the upper elevations of the Pacific Northwest. Snow is even falling this morning at the lower elevations of BC and Alberta. Light snow is observed at Edmonton with -1C. The heavy snow closed some roads and caused travel delays across the Cascades of Oregon and Washington.

Hurricane Richard moved into Belize overnight with heavy rain and 90mph winds. The storm, now downgraded to tropical storm status, has taken a more western path into Central America. The system will weaken today and move across Honduras and into southern Mexico before dissipating over the Bay of Campeche this week. It does not look like Richard will affect the US as strong wind shear should prevent regeneration once back over the Gulf of Mexico.

Weekend Update

It is a chilly start to the morning here in Montreal. There was another coating of frost on the car as the mercury leveled off at around 0C on Ile Perrot, 1C across the rest of the island. Today will be partly cloudy and breezy as west winds increase rapidly this morning and gust up to 50km/h, we will do no better than 6C in the temperature department. The winds blowing across the Great Lakes are producing some lake effect snow and rain showers this morning. Some parts of central Ontario off Lake Huron and western New York off Lake Erie are reporting light snow showers this morning. In some of the most persistent bands off Lake Huron, a few centimetres may occur.

The weekend will be partly cloudy and seasonable with temperatures between 6 and 10C across the area. There may be a few showers or flurries on Sunday.

Much colder weather pattern

Some major changes are in store for our weather over the next week or so. It begins today with the showers that are falling in the St. Lawrence Valley. They are very narrow band and associated with an arctic front. The precipitation should end before noon with much colder air moving into the region. Winds will increase out of the west and gust to 50km/h. We have reached our high for the day and temperatures should remain steady around 7C before dropping close to 0C tonight. Any precipitation should taper off by lunch as mentioned with just a few flurries possible into the evening hours and again on Friday. It looks like the cool weather will be here right into next week.

On the west coast strong low pressure will move into BC over the weekend with heavy rain and very strong winds and eventually into southern Alberta. As the storm moves east much colder air will poor into the Rockies and prairies with snow possible next week.

In the tropics tropical depression 19 has formed and is located 260km south southeast of Grand Cayman Island. The storm is forecast to become tropical storm Richard later today before moving towards the Yucatan. Forecasters expect Richard to become a hurricane and move over or close to the Yucatan over the weekend before emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. After that it may threaten the US Gulf Coast, but we are several days away from determining that. Computer models this far out have the storm moving in every possible direction.


NOAA Image of TD 19 this morning. An aircraft is forecast to fly into the storm later today, and Richard is expected to be named .

Cooler weather ahead

We are on track for another sunny and dry day as high pressure continues to keep an arctic cold front at bay to our west. That front will slip through the region on Thursday with gusty southwest winds to 50 or 60km/h ahead of it and equally strong winds out of the west behind it. Showers will occur along the front with steady or dropping temperatures on Thursday. Highs today will be near 13C with mild overnight lows close to 10C and then very cool tomorrow no better than 9C. The weekend looks unsettled with showers and mild Saturday, showers as well Sunday but very cool, only 7C. Next week we may see a few snowflakes on Tuesday, even here in Montreal. Stay tuned.

In the tropics, forecasters are still watching that low pressure area near the Cayman Islands. Another NOAA recon flight will enter the storm this morning to investigate. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to become a depression within the next 24 hours. The storm would be named Richard.

Typical October weather

It is another chilly start to the day across eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Montreal is at 5C at 8am but we were as cold as 1C overnight, and below freezing off island with frost. Kemptville starts the day at 1C after an overnight low of -1C. All areas will be partly cloudy to start the day before clouds increase around the noon hour. Winds will be gusty again, out of the west at 20-40km/h. Temperatures will be a little warmer reaching 12C, it was 11C yesterday. A combination warm front and cold front will bring showers to the area Wednesday and Thursday before cooler air overnight Friday allows some flurries to occur at higher elevations and possibly north of Montreal. The weekend at this time looks decent with sunny skies and a little warmer. No major storms in sight at this point.

TROPICS: In the tropics another area of disturbed weather has developed between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, roughly in the same location that Hurricane Paula did last week. The National Hurricane Center predicts a 50% chance of storm formation and plans to send a NOAA Hurricane Hunter into the system later today.

Chilly unsettled week

We are settling into a typical mid-October weather pattern here in southern Quebec. Sunshine today will mix with afternoon clouds as the sun begins to slowly warm the cool night air. The clouds will dissipate this evening with a clear and very cold night. I expect widespread frost in most areas with temperatures at or just below freezing. On Tuesday a warm front will approach the region with scattered showers. That will be followed Wednesday and Thursday by a potent cold front with more showers and even some snow possible across the mountains. As a matter of fact several inches may fall late Thursday into early Friday mornings, especially across the Green Mountains and the highest elevations of the Townships.

MOUNT WASHINGTON: Speaking of snow, winter has arrived on the 6,288 foot summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire's White Mountains. It has been below freezing for the last week with heavy snow at times, strong winds and six foot drifts. Just another day in this fascinating weather landscape.

The 7.6-mile-long Mt. Washington Road is lined with trees, drop-offs, and winds on the way to the summit. Recently, when the weather was better, the road was conquered in a 2011 Subaru Impreza WRX STI rally car, with Vermont plates I might add, posting an officially timed run of 6 minutes 20.47 seconds. You can get a tour of the road and a sense of the elevation and landscape by watching this awesome video HERE.

Slow clearing

The weather is finally calming down this morning as that pesky nor'easter off the Maine coast slowly weakens. The storm was responsible for 24 hour rain totals in the 2 to 4 inch (50-100mm) range across southern Quebec and northern New England/New York. In addition to the monsoon like rains, winds gusted to tropical storm force in many areas including Montreal. The highest winds were in the Quebec City region along the St. Lawrence, at over 100km/h. Atlantic Canada also had strong winds in excess of 100km/h. In Montreal the wind took down trees and power lines. One tree fell on a car in the Outremont district injuring the driver. Hydro Quebec spent Friday night and Saturday repairing damage and restoring power to over 60,000 homes in the province. Across the upper elevations northeast of Quebec City, and in Vermont and New York heavy wet snow fell. Seven inches fell on Mount Mansfield, with over a foot at Killington.

A weak cold front moved through the region this morning with a few showers. It is now south and east of Montreal with sunny breaks occurring. It will be a typical October week with clouds and sun mixed and cool temperatures.

Storm Update

10pm Update: As of 10pm this evening I have measured close to 56mm of rain here on Ile Perrot. The howling wind gusted to 84km/h at the airport at 2pm today. The strong winds cut power to over 60,000 Hydro customers in Quebec including 20,000 on the island of Montreal. The wind also brought down several trees across the central and western portions of the metro region. This evening strong low pressure is located off the Maine coast and precipitation is slowly winding down across the region. Light rain continues as does snow across the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Townships and Green Mountains. Some locations may see up to 6 inches tonight. Flooding is occurring in the Champlain Valley where 2 to 3 inches of rain fell today, and a flood warning is posted for urban and small stream flooding. Conditions should slowly improve Saturday as this major storm pulls off into the Atlantic.

Wind swept rain falling in Montreal today. (Valley WX Pic)

2PM Update: Heavy wind swept rain is falling in Montreal at this hour. Winds are gusting over 70km/h at Dorval (actually 84km/h at 2pm) and they have created some sporadic power outages as well as some damage to tree branches in the region. Radar is showing steady heavy rain moving from southeast to northwest across the island. The heavy rain warnings have been extended north to the south shore of Montreal. Upwards of 60mm can be expected by Saturday morning. In addition to the rain, colder air has been wrapping into the back side of the storm and rain has changed to snow on Mt Mansfield in Vermont, and also at Killington above 2000 feet. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for the Green Mountains. Between 2 and 6 inches of snow is forecast with upwards of 1 foot expected at Jay Peak. Roads across the area are wet and slick with low visibility in the heavy rain. Travel with care today.

Windy wet and white day

A classic comma shape of today's Nor'Easter off the New England Coast. The cold front trails south to the Bahamas with the heaviest precipitation and winds on the north and west side of the storm over Quebec and New England and into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. (NOAA Image)

Strong low pressure continues to deepen this morning southwest of Cape Cod. The storm with a current pressure of 992mb will lift north across Maine and into Atlantic Canada this evening. Steady moderate rain is falling in the St. Lawrence Valley of Quebec and south and east into New York and New England. The heaviest rain will fall along the US border where rainfall warnings are in place for up to 60mm (closer to 40mm is expected in Montreal). In New England and eastern New York flood watches have been posted for 1-3 inches of rain by Saturday morning. The rain will be very heavy at times with ponding on roadways and reduced visibilities. Another component of this storm will be strong winds developing by midday today. The winds will be out of the north from 40-60km/h in Montreal and 60-90km/h across Quebec City and south in New England. Wind warnings are in effect for those regions. Eastern Ontario will remain on the western edge of the storm with lighter winds and precipitation.

All regions will be chilly today with high temperatures having already been reached in many locations this morning. The mercury will fall from 9 or 10C towards the 5 to 7C mark later today. Regions north of Quebec City will see the rain change to snow tonight with several centimetres expected. The same will hold true for the highest elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Saturday will be breezy and chilly with showers before skies clear out on Sunday.

Nor'Easter on the way

It is that time of year again when cyclonic storms, lows, depressions, Nor'Easters, Clippers, Colorado lows, whatever you want to call them, begin to develop some substance and pop to them. As the weather chills across the north the interaction between the tropics and the polar regions becomes more interesting and explosive. This will be evident in the next 24 hours as an upper level low spawns surface low pressure off the east coast near North Carolina. This low pressure will deepen rapidly and move towards Long Island, New York. The storm will then track across Maine and into Atlantic Canada. Typically these storms bring strong winds and heavy precipitation to our regions. This will be the case tonight as rain and wind will be on the increase from south to north. The heaviest rain in Quebec will fall along the US border where 40mm is possible (20-40mm for Montreal and the Seaway). Upwards of 50mm or more is expected in Vermont and New York. The wind will increase overnight out of the northeast from 30-50km/h then back to the north between 40-70km/h on Friday. As the wind comes out of the north, colder air will filter into the region changing the rain to wet snow across the highest elevations of the Townships, Green Mountains and Adirondacks by Saturday morning. A coating is quite possible in places. Temperatures even in the valley location will be chilly. Today we will reach 14C in Montreal but struggle to reach 8 or 9C Friday into Saturday. Skies will slowly clear on Sunday as the bulk of the storm moves east.

Eastern Ontario will remain on the western edge of the storm with gusty winds, periods of light rain and cold temperatures.

One more sunny day

Just a quick note this morning on that amazing rescue operation taking place in Chile. 33 miners have been trapped for 69 days and are slowly being rescued from the San Jose mine, one at a time today. It is amazing to watch unfold on CNN. All the best to the miners, their families and the rescuers for their incredible courage, determination and faith. The weather today in Copiapo, Chile could not be better, it will be sunny and 21C, after cool overnight lows of 8C in the desert climate.

It is another frosty morning in southern Quebec. Outside of metro Montreal temperatures were very close to the freezing point with widespread frost in most regions. Ile Perrot was down to 1C again this morning with the ground white and the car windows iced up. It was a different story on the island of Montreal, as temperatures remained well above freezing. The high pressure that has dominated our weather for several days now will give us one more sun filled day with mild temperatures reaching 14C. Low pressure is expected to develop along the middle Atlantic coast and move north into southern New England. Showers will develop on Thursday and that will become a steady rain into Friday and perhaps Saturday. Winds will increase out of the north at over 50km/h at times and it will be very chilly to end the week. It appears that a general rainfall of 25-50mm can be expected in the St. Lawrence Valley and New England. As the storm pulls away to the north and east, colder air will wrap behind the system and change rain to snow across the upper elevations of the Townships and New England mountains as well as the Adirondacks on Saturday. Skies should clear by Sunday with temperatures remaining chilly.

Tropical Update: Hurricane Paula reached category 2 strength overnight as the system slowly steered through the Yucatan Channel. The compact storm is prompting hurricane warnings for the Cuban and Yucatan coasts. Heavy rain and pounding surf will be the main threats today. Paula is expected to curve northeast into Cuba by this evening. The northern fringe of the storm will produce gusty winds, showers and a rising surf in the Florida Keys over the next 24 hours. The system should slowly weaken over the next few days over the interior of Cuba.
Above: The small centre of Paula moving between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba this morning

First Frost

The evidence was on my windshield this morning

In keeping with my not prepared for winter mode, I was caught without my scraper and gloves this morning as temperatures dipped to the freezing point on Ile Perrot. We had our first frost of the season joining many other regions outside of Metro Montreal. It remained above freezing at Dorval on the island with 2C but dipped well below freezing to -2 in Cornwall. Kemptville was well above freezing as a layer of cloud cover stopped the temperature from falling below 4C overnight.

The long weekend was spectacular across Quebec, Ontario and New England with mild temperatures and abundant sunshine. The work week will start the same with high pressure in control. Sunshine today with a high near 13C in the region. Clear skies and more frost tonight with lows around 1C in Montreal and colder in the rural regions. Tomorrow low pressure will approach from the south with increasing clouds and showers by evening. We can expect rain to end the week with even a period of wet snow late Friday night across the highest elevations of the Townships, New York and New England.

It was a very warm Monday across the middle Atlantic yesterday with Washington DC reaching 30C. The heat produced some wild late season thunderstorms across New Jersey and southern New York. The Monday Night Football game between the NY Jets and Minnesota Vikings was delayed nearly 45 minutes because of lightning. The storms dumped hail in mid town New York and Brooklyn with several inches reported on the ground in places.

Hurricane Paula
We have another named storm in the tropics this morning. Hurricane Paula developed overnight and is 190 miles south southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The system is moving northwest at 10mph with 75mph winds. Heavy rain and pounding surf can be expected along the Yucatan coast and western Cuba with warnings in place including Cancun. The storm is expected to meander in the region for the entire week with very little movement. Rain and rough seas may affect the Florida Keys by later in the week.

Frost on the pumpkin

The first freeze and frost occurred across a large part of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec last night. The cold temperatures extended into the Adirondacks of New York. So far Ile Perrot and Montreal escaped frost. Cloud cover moved in overnight and the temperature stopped falling at around 4C. Meanwhile Ottawa was 2C, and Kemptville dropped to -1C. South of Montreal and into Vermont and New York temperatures dropped below freezing away from the Champlain Valley with frost reported in many locations. Yesterday was a cool and breezy day with temperatures around 12C. Today and Thanksgiving should be splendid with sunshine mixed with clouds and mild temperatures between 12 and 15C region wide. This is ideal for picking apples, getting that great pumpkin, travelling anywhere in the region, or just eating turkey and watching football!

Happy Thanksgiving

THE GREAT PUMPKIN IS HERE: Time to pick that perfect pumpkin at Quinn Farms on Ile Perrot or anywhere across the region. The fall colors are spectacular and the weather will be perfect this weekend.

It is looking like a splendid weekend across most of the country as we celebrate Thanksgiving. The only exceptions will be both coasts but especially British Columbia where two Pacific storms will produce strong winds and heavy rain.

October has certainly crept up on us and I am still very much in denial that the summer has gone. I have worn shorts, been stubborn in putting the heat on and have yet to prepare the house or car for winter. I am struggling with my first cold in over 5 years and longing for 30C. We still have time to prepare for winter, but with the first frost expected this weekend, time is running out. Today, a cold front will slide south across the valley and into upstate New York and Vermont. Expect showers to develop from north to south across eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec shortly along with gusty west winds. The winds may increase to over 50km/h by this afternoon, especially across higher elevations. Any showers will come to an end before sunset followed by rapid clearing and much colder temperatures. The weekend will be sunny right through with just a few cloudy periods. Temperatures will be very close to the freezing point overnight with widespread frost away from metro regions, and rise to between 12 and 14C for daytime highs.

Tropical Update: Just a quick update on tropical storm Otto. This system is getting better organized this morning and is located about 520 miles south of Bermuda with 70mph winds. The storm has been producing torrential rain and high surf over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with numerous reports of flooding and landslides. The storm should become a hurricane today as it accelerates off to the northeast. There is a remote chance that Otto may affect Europe next week. The irony of this hurricane season is to obvious to overlook. We could have land falling storms in Canada, Mexico and Central America the Caribbean and Europe, but no direct hit from a hurricane in the US.

Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving weekend...

Arizona tornadoes

It is another gray and dull morning in Montreal with low clouds and light rain. The back edge of the rain can be seen on radar so this should end by noon with slowly clearing skies and increasing westerly winds to follow. The winds will gust out of the northwest at 30-50km/h by midday. In terms of rainfall amounts, the airport measured 15mm as of 2am this morning. I had 30mm in my rain gauge this morning at 7am. The system, a coastal low over New England, will slowly lift into Atlantic Canada today.

Yesterday low pressure over the southwest US produced at least 4 tornadoes in Arizona. Tornadoes are very rare in that state. The storms produced widespread damage to homes, power lines and trees but no injuries were reported. It was chilly way down into Texas and the deep south yesterday morning. Portions of west Texas and northern Louisiana and Alabama had lows between 35 and 40F. It was 32F in Asheville North Carolina. Many of these areas made the leap from record heat to record cold within the last week.

Subtropical storm Otto has developed about 635 miles south southwest of Bermuda. The storm is expected to remain over open waters moving northeast across the Atlantic. Rain and gusty winds are affecting portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. No other land will likely be affected by Otto.

Steady Rain

An upper level low moving towards the middle Atlantic coast will spawn low pressure at the surface that will move northward across eastern New England today and Thursday. Steady moderate rain is expected to develop from south to north across the region later today and continue most of the day on Thursday. Rainfall amounts in excess of 25mm are likely with as much as 50mm closer to the US border south and east of the city. Amounts will taper off north and west of Montreal. Winds are expected to increase as well across the valley with a cool raw northeast breeze. Expect winds in the 30-50km/h range across the area. Temperatures were very mild Tuesday under sunny skies reaching 19.3C in the city. They will be much cooler today and tonight with those clouds and northeast winds keeping it in the 10 to 12C range. Skies will clear by Friday.

Rain on the way...again

The earliest snow since 1979 fell yesterday at Mt. LaCoste in the Great Smoky Mountains.
(Photo by Allyson Virden)

Upper level low pressure over the Ohio Valley will finally begin to slide north and east towards the Jersey Shore on Wednesday and allow moisture to move north into the St. Lawrence Valley. The high pressure that has given us a break for the last couple of days will begin to break down in coverage today. We will still have another sunny day before clouds increase tonight and rain develops on Wednesday. Look for a cool breezy day Thursday with rain all day. It appears another 15-25mm of rain is likely across the region. The Thanksgiving Weekend at this point looks sunny and seasonable.

Just a couple of tidbits from around the weather world. Yesterday record high temperatures pushed north into Montana and southern Saskatchewan. Assiniboia reached 28.8C eclipsing the previous record of 25C. Meanwhile low temperatures produced widespread frost in northern and central Michigan and temperatures in the 30's F as far south as Oklahoma City. Despite the warmth in the northern plains, it snowed in the southern Sierra Mountains yesterday and at 2pm in the afternoon it was -22C and snowing in Alert, NWT. There was even a light coating of snow across the highest elevations of the Great Smoky Mountains in Tennessee.

A break from the action

It was a quiet weekend in the weather department after last weeks storminess. That was a good thing as my blogging time was down. I had family in from out west to celebrate my moms 80th birthday. It was great and the pleasant weather allowed for easy travel.

Last night we had frost warnings in place throughout the entire region. I believe the area towards the Townships and the rural areas of eastern Ontario, Kemptville etc may have had there first frost of the season. There was none on Ile Perrot as a light breeze prevailed and kept the temperatures well above freezing at 4C overnight. Other area temperatures included 5C at Dorval, 3C at St. Hubert, and 2C at Plattsburgh, N.Y. Both Kemptville and Sherbrooke dropped to 1C with scattered frost. High pressure will dominate early this week with partly cloudy skies today and tomorrow along with mild daytime highs and chilly overnight lows. Afterwards a pesky upper level low stuck over the Ohio Valley will begin to push moisture across New York and New England and into Ontario and Quebec with widespread rain expected late Wednesday into Thursday.

Flooding from Cape Hatteras to Montreal

Flooding from Cape Hatteras to Montreal, and everywhere in between. What started off as tropical storm Nicole, became a much bigger weather story yesterday as heavy rain and strong winds pelted the east coast from the Carolina's to Atlantic Canada. The rain was pumped northward from the tropics along a frontal boundary at an intense rate with nearly 90mm falling is some portions of southern Quebec. As of 7am this morning I measured 92mm on Ile Perrot southwest of Montreal. Not far to the north of my location St Anne-de-bellevue had 75mm as of 10pm last night. The airport in Montreal recorded about 65mm. Radar is showing the rain sliding to the east now with the heaviest bands over upstate New York and into Vermont and the Eastern Townships. The storm had far reaching effects with flooding in Washington, across New Jersey and New England. But it was North Carolina that was hardest hit. The heavy rain claimed at least 5 lives and pounded the region for a weekly total in excess of 20 inches in Wilmington. In addition to the rain, heavy surf flooded coastal roads and strong winds in excess of 60mph downed trees and power lines. Isolated tornadoes were reported as well even into New York where several storms last night in the Champlain Valley showed signs of rotation.

Flooding is also being reported locally with Montreal firefighters responding to at least 20 calls for flooded basements. As usual several area highways had enough water accumulation to force closures including the Dorval circle. South of Montreal officials are watching several rivers across Vaudreuil and Huntigdon south into upstate New York.