A late season tornado near Tipton, Oklahoma on Monday.

A very mild air mass remains over southern Quebec this morning with Montreal already above our normal daytime high for November 8. We are currently 7C after a high of 15C on Monday. Expect more of the same today after some fog and mist burns off this morning, temperatures will soar under bright sunshine to 16C. The same holds true for Wednesday, before a frontal system and associated low pressure area cross Quebec on Thursday and Friday with windy, wet weather and dropping temperatures.

We have an active weather pattern across the central portion of the continent with low pressure lifting north from Texas into the Great Lakes today. East of the center in the warm air thunderstorms produced tornadoes yesterday in Oklahoma with a farm destroyed near Tipton. The same storm system will produce more sever weather today across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley's, and is prompting a Winter Storm Watch across the upper peninsula of Michigan and eastern Wisconsin for Wednesday. A general 15cm of wet snow is possible in these regions extending north into northwest Ontario north of Lake Superior on Wednesday.

SEAN - Meanwhile the tropical Atlantic is showing some signs of life as sub-tropical storm Sean formed overnight. The storm is located about 720km southwest of Bermuda and is nearly stationary this morning with 45mph winds. The system is expected to remain weak and eventually merge with a frontal boundary over the open waters of the Atlantic. Sean is however enough of a threat for the Bermuda Government to issue a tropical storm watch for the island nation effective at 7am local time today.

Warm week ahead in Quebec

Temperatures are rapidly on the rise this morning after we flirted with the freezing point overnight. A general frost has covered everything outside but that should melt away quickly as temperatures soar to well above normal highs of 15C in Montreal today. The record high today is 20C set in 1975. We won't come near that but temperatures will be more than double the normal of 6C. Montreal and the entire region can expect sunshine today and again on Tuesday. The next chance of rain won't come until Thursday. As we look ahead to next weekend, sharply colder air and flurries are likely by Sunday. Oh by the way we had 8.4cm of snow in Montreal on this day in 1981, so November goes either way. Enjoy the sunshine today.

Meanwhile the cold and snow are out west across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. (Global image above of Saskatoon on Sunday). Temperatures are a cold -10C in Regina and Calgary this morning and a fresh 10-15cm of snow is on the ground in southern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba. The rain has even changed to snow in Winnipeg this morning at -1C. The RCMP were advising drivers to stay of the Trans Canada Highway in Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon after dozens of accidents occurred. Roads were icy, snow packed and visibilities were low in blowing snow. The storm causing the wintry precipitation is moving northeast towards Hudson Bay. Another area of low pressure organizing in Texas will begin to lift north towards Lake Superior on Tuesday. This storm will be responsible for severe weather in Texas and Oklahoma, and another snowstorm for the northern plains and northwest Ontario. The snow in Ontario, north of Lake Superior, will likely amount to more than 15cm, with strong winds as well, so warnings are likely to be issued later today or Tuesday.

Weekend Update

Calgary Herald photo of a city bus stranded on an icy street on Friday.

It is a very chilly start to the day across the region with temperatures in the -2 to -6C. A hard frost has virtually killed off anything still growing as winter begins to slowly establish itself across Canada. Yesterday sunshine prevailed in Montreal while south and east of the city in the Townships and south into Vermont scattered snow flurries were observed. The weekend looks excellent for any outdoor adventures whether it be hiking to see the remaining colors of the season, winterizing your home or dare I say putting up the Christmas lights. Today will be sunny and plus 7C in Montreal and southern Quebec, back down to -1C tonight and up to an above normal high of plus 10C with sunshine on Sunday. The tranquil weather will prevail to start the week before low pressure ushers in rain and eventually colder air by late next week.

That cold air this morning is across the west as an arctic front presses south into Montana. The front dropped temperatures into the minus teens in Calgary with that cities first dose of snow yesterday. Nearly 350 accidents were reported snarling traffic across the city. Today low pressure will move across extreme eastern Montana and into Manitoba. Snow will fall from eastern Montana into North Dakota, Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan with 5 to 15cm likely. The snow will be driven by 70km/h winds by late tonight making travel across the southern prairies rather dangerous with low visibility and icy roads. Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon but it will remain blustery and cold.

Fair weather in the east

A portion of I-70 in Colorado remains closed today due to heavy snow and strong winds.

The question on everyone's lips lately is when are we going to see our first snow in Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario? Not anytime soon is my short, less complicated answer. Don't worry I will let you know well in advance. It looks like high pressure will give us a decent stretch of fair weather with normal temperatures right into this upcoming weekend. The only threat for clouds and showers will come late Thursday as a weak cold front crosses the region. This will be an ideal weekend to get outdoors and get your place ready for winter. Temperatures will be between 12 and 15C today, lowering to 9C or so into the weekend. Lows will be near the freezing point.

The main storm energy remains to our south across the US. This time Colorado and Wyoming are being affected by a blizzard this morning. An arctic front is pouring cold air across Alberta and BC and into the Rockies while moisture is moving in from the southwest. The combination of fresh snow, 5-10 inches worth, and 40mph north winds is producing very dangerous travel weather in Colorado and western Nebraska. A portion of I-70 has been closed as are numerous schools. Conditions will only improve on Thursday. Much colder air is also poised to spread across the Rockies and into the southern Prairies by the weekend. Snow and cold weather is forecast in Saskatchewan and eventually Manitoba by Saturday.

A November break

One last image of the big snows this weekend, this one from West Milford, New Jersey from Fox News. Over 19 inches of snow nearly 50cm fell there. I travel into that area every May, and it is just slightly elevated thus a degree or two colder than metro NYC.

I can`t believe Halloween is over and November is here. It still amazes me summer is over. I have been in total denial, even after I was shelling out hundreds for new winter tires this past weekend and watching the record snow pile up across the interior of the Northeast US. That storm by the way broke all kinds of records up and down the coast and into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Power remains out to nearly 2 million this morning as the clean up continues. Milder weather is on tap for much of the region as high pressure dominates the middle part of the week. It will be seasonable with cold overnight lows near freezing and daytime highs near 10C. A cold front late Thursday will give us some sprinkles or showers in Ontario and Quebec and then we can expect sunshine and cooler weather for the weekend.

Out west the first really cold arctic air mass of the season is getting ready to spread from the Yukon into northern BC with snow and below freezing temperatures. The arctic front will settle across BC and Alberta by the weekend.

Lots of pictures and video of the snow HERE.

A dry Halloween

An AP photo of the Halloween snowstorm this past weekend.

Below: thousands of trees fell on cars and power lines

across New England.

Happy Halloween everyone, expect partly cloudy skies for trick or treating tonight in Montreal, with temperatures around 5C. We are looking at a dry week until Thursday with temperatures right around normal for the start of November.

That was one scary storm this past weekend, as portions of the east coast from Newfoundland to New Jersey were hammered by 100km/h winds and a record breaking 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow. The hardest hit areas stretched from Northwest New Jersey into Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern Vermont and New Hampshire where as much as 30 inches of snow fell. The snow brought down a tremendous amount of trees onto houses, power lines and cars. Extra hydro crews are scrambling into the region today to restore power to more than 2.5 million homes. As impressive as that amount is, it is down from nearly 4 million at the height of the storm. Over 800,000 lost power in Connecticut alone shattering the record just set by Hurricane Irene this summer. Some of the more impressive numbers included 32 inches of snow at Peru, Mass, and a 133km/h wind gust at Grand Etang, Newfoundland. Even Metro NYC got in on the act with over 2 inches of snow in Central Park, the most in October since the days of the Civil War! Eight deaths are being blamed on the storm and damage estimates will run into the hundreds of millions. The clean up is underway on this Halloween Monday, and will be helped by much warmer air in the region this week, but it could take up to a week to connect the power in the hardest hit areas.

Locally we had just some cloud cover and gusty winds in Montreal from the storm as the system passed too far south. You had to go south of Burlington before you encountered the snow. Accumulations in Vermont ranged from a trace at Burlington to nearly 10 inches in southern Vermont along the Mass border.

Storm Update

UNREAL - New England Thruway in metro NYC in heavy snow at noon today.

Highland County, Virginia this morning (AccuWeather)

Precipitation continues to spread northward this morning from Virginia into Maryland and into the northeast. Heavy wet snow has already blanketed portions of northern Virginia with as much as 7 inches. Snow is also falling in southern New York State and Pennsylvania. The snow will spread into Vermont and New Hampshire later today into this evening. All this precipitation is in response to low pressure deepening rapidly off the Carolina coast. That storm will lift quickly to the north and east to be near Cape Cod on Sunday morning and finally into Atlantic Canada. Heavy snow and rain will spread along the storm track with strong winds from 30 to 55mph in gusts. Besides the heavy snow, coastal flooding is also occurring with this storm. Already this morning nearly 40,000 people are without power in VA, MD and PA due to heavy wet snow taking down trees and wires and that number will certainly grow today. Montreal will remain on the northern edge of the cloud shield from the storm with the snow making it no further than the southern Townships where 5cm is expected to fall close to the US border with Vermont and New Hampshire.

Big Nor'Easter

Oh so close. The seasons first big snowstorm should miss Montreal.

An early season snowstorm is taking shape tonight across the middle Atlantic and into the northeast. Snowstorms in late October are not uncommon, I have experienced them in Saskatchewan and in Ontario. What makes this unusual is how far south the snow is expected to fall. Low pressure currently over Virginia will re develop as a major coastal low off the Carolina coast on Saturday. Strengthening northerly winds on the backside of the storm will pull down just enough cold air to change rain to snow inland. Heavy rain will fall along the coast with strong winds and coastal flooding. A cold rain will overspread the region from Maryland and Virginia northeast into southern interior New England on Saturday and gradually change to heavy wet snow late in the evening. Winter Storm Warnings are scattered from southern Vermont across New York and into Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia. The wet snow will accumulate at least 6 inches in these locations with as much as 12 inches quite possible in a swath across southeastern New York into Massachusetts. The wet snow will likely pull down trees and power lines across the northeast and New England.

If you are travelling to Sherbrooke or the Eastern Townships (Highway 10) late Saturday or early Sunday, expect to encounter snow there as well. Only 2-4cm (1-2 inches) is forecast as Quebec remains at this time on the northern edge of the storm. Montreal can expect increasing cloud cover, cool temperatures and a gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h by late Saturday as a result of the storm. No snow is forecast for Montreal at this time. The storm will move into Atlantic Canada on Sunday with heavy snow, rain and strong winds.

Weekend Update

Major snow south of Montreal in southern New England

It is a frosty morning in Montreal with temperatures down below freezing across the region including -1C at Trudeau Airport and here on Ile Perrot. Partly sunny skies will prevail today with temperatures at 5C. The weekend for southern Quebec looks decent with chilly conditions, frequent cloudy periods, but dry weather is expected.

Weekend Snowstorm?

Yesterday was chilly and breezy with a heavy cloud cover all day as low pressure skirted across the middle Atlantic region. All the precipitation from this storm remained south of the border with up to 7 inches of snow in southern Vermont. That storm is now affecting Newfoundland with high winds and up to 10cm of wet snow across the Avalon this afternoon. While high pressure will keep us dry this weekend, another potent storm is taking shape along the US east coast. It is forecast to move north and eat and lie near Cape Cod by Saturday night. The storm will then rapidly move into Atlantic Canada. Already this morning Winter Storm Watches are in effect for southern interior New England for Saturday night. It looks like a 12 hour period of heavy wet snow is possible with up to 6 inches likely especially across the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut.. At this time it appears the snow will stay south of Montreal but I will keep a close watch on this system today so check back here and on my twitter link for updates.

Hard freeze tonight

Heavy snow on the Burgeo Highway, Newfoundland on Wednesday (CBC.ca).
Full Details HERE

Temperatures will drop well below freezing in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario tonight bringing and end to the growing season. We have already had frost in most locations but tonight the region will see widespread temperatures in the -3 to -5C range that will last for several hours. That is the bad news, the good news is that the weather looks dry now right into the weekend. The pattern of late is shifting the storm track well south of our region across southern New England. This morning light snow is falling across the higher elevations of southern New York into southern Vermont and the Berkshires of Massachusetts, and it will slide east off the coast. That storm will move off the east coast and affect Atlantic Canada on Friday. Another potent low is forecast to develop along the middle Atlantic over the weekend and move north with precipitation and wind. It is also expected at this time to remain well south and east of Montreal. So in summary we can expect cloud cover and cool temperatures into the weekend, but little in the way of precipitation. It will be chilly with daytime highs in the plus 5 to 8C range and nighttime lows, as mentioned below freezing to -3C In the city. Halloween looks dry at the moment with cool temperatures.

SNOW

That snowstorm in Colorado yesterday dumped as much as 40cm (14 inches) of snow in the ski areas with about 15cm (6 inches) in Denver. The heavy wet snow dropped trees on power lines and forced the closure of schools. Meanwhile a powerful storm along the eastern coast of Newfoundland produced damaging winds and heavy snow and rain. The classic coastal storm bombed out rapidly producing heavy precipitation and strong winds. Winds gusted between 70 and 110km/h in places like Gander, Burgeo and Twillingate. Snow also blanketed many parts of the province including Gander. Waves and surge caused damage in some coastal communities. Winds remain strong in Newfoundland today, and wind warnings have been posted for many portions of the province. Additionally a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for southeast Newfoundland for the next storm that is expected to approach the area from New England on Friday.

Cool weather

CDOT traffic camera of snow falling this morning north of Denver.

The forecast for the balance of the week is finally becoming a little more clear (pardon the pun). The threat for precipitation, at least for Montreal is somewhat less now with more sunshine expected. High pressure over the area this morning will push storm system 1 to our south taking with it any threat for snow or rain. Radar is showing this trend this morning with clouds to our south and light precipitation staying in Vermont and NY. The second more potent storm that is giving Colorado its first snowstorm of the season this morning will also be pushed south of the region late Thursday. All precipitation should remain to our south over New York and southern Vermont. However one thing that will be noticeable to end the week, is the cooler weather. Temperatures will be below normal into the weekend with cool daytime highs of 4 to 7C (39 to 45F) and overnight lows to about -3C (27F) in the city and colder in the suburbs with frost and a hard freeze likely.

Heavy snow is falling across portions of northern Colorado this morning which as much as 6 inches reported. Lesser amount have fallen in Denver with 1 to 3 inches so far, but amazing when you think they had a record high of 80F on Monday. CDOT is reporting roads becoming snow covered and slippery across portions of the state with more snow and gusty winds forecast today. It is only 28F (-2C) in Denever this morning with light snow.

Hurricane Rina continues to meander just off the Yucatan coast this morning with 110mph winds. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has centered the storm about 385km southeast of Cozumel drifting west at 5mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect as far north as Cancun as the category 2 storm slowly drifts along the coastline and then northeast towards south Florida and northern Cuba over the next 48 hours. Torrential rain of 8-16 inches and a surge up to 7 feet is forecast for the Yucatan coast including Cancun later today and tonight. While the storm may briefly reach category 3 strength today, forecasters expect Rina to begin to weaken in response to land, wind shear and cooler water temperatures. The storm still needs to be monitored closely for any impact on Florida and the southeast US coast into the weekend.

Hurricane Rina

Hurricane Rina slowly drifting towards the Yucatan. (NOAA Image)

We have been given a reminder that the 2011 hurricane season is not quite over yet. As a matter of fact it has about 5 weeks to go and we have a rapidly developing nasty little hurricane in the Caribbean Sea east of Honduras heading towards the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rina has wind speeds of 100mph making her a category 2 storm. Indications are that the storm will further intensify today and become a major hurricane. The storm is located about 335km southwest of Grand Caymen Island and slowly drifting towards the west northwest. The Government of Mexico has posted a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula including Cancun and Cozumel. The storm is forecast to brush the coastline later this week before heading northeast towards Cuba. It is way too soon to forecast if it will affect Florida or the US mainland at this time.

Snow?

Wild weather is expected across the Western US during the next 24 hours. A potent storm is gathering steam and is expected to become the seasons first snowstorm for portions of the Rockies. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the inter mountain west including metro Denver. Now just think, Denver hit a record high of 81F yesterday while they were under a winter storm watch. That has since been upgraded to a warning with 6 to 10 inches of snow expected by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are around 57F this morning but will continue to fall to below freezing tonight and remain there on Wednesday in the snow.

That system is forecast to approach the east coast by the weekend with rain and snow possible in New England. Computer models are all over the place this week, so forecaster confidence is low. The best we can do for Montreal and southern Quebec is to tell you to expect near or slightly below normal temperatures into the weekend with a chance of showers early today and again on Thursday. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix by the weekend. In between expect sunshine and cooler temperatures for Wednesday and again Friday. Overnight lows will be below freezing into the weekend.

Snow this week?

There has been lots of chatter about a possible snowfall later this week. I was going to write about it on the weekend but I thought I would let the hype settle down a little. First of all it is only snow, it happens every year. Secondly I don't think it will amount to to much. We start things off this week with bright sunshine and fairly mild temperatures today. It is chilly at the moment with 4C in Montreal but should warm nicely under the sunshine and a southwest flow today to 16C. A cold front approaching from the west will trigger showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder this evening until about midnight. That will be followed by gusty northwest winds up to 50km/h and cloudy skies into Tuesday with cooler temperatures in the 10C range.

The next threat for precipitation will come late Thursday as low pressure organizes in the southern US and heads for the Eastern seaboard. Depending on the exact path of the system we could see a rain/snow mix overnight into Friday morning. At this time the heaviest snow would be across the upper elevations of New York and Vermont and perhaps the Townships. But the possibility does exist for even a slushy accumulation on some surfaces in the valley. There is lots of uncertainty in the forecast so we will have to wait and see, stay tuned for more.

Weekend Update

The storm system that affected the region yesterday producing strong winds and heavy rainfall from Ontario to Atlantic Canada, continues to meander northeast of Montreal this morning. Light rain is still falling in the city after about 40mm in the last 36 hours. Peak winds in Montreal approached 70km/h with the storm. There were also some decent thunderstorms yesterday afternoon that developed in New York state and swept across the city from the south. They produced torrential rains and strong winds around 4pm. Some minor flooding along roadways was reported slowing the evening commute, but little else. In Ontario the storm produced heavy rain as well with 78mm at Hamilton. Peak winds in the GTA were around 80km/h, stronger along the immediate Great Lakes shorelines. Tree damage and power outages were reported. The same storm system also produced heavy rain in Atlantic Canada with 110.6mm of rain in Halifax.

The weekend in southern Quebec looks typical for late October. While it will not be a washout by any means, there will be a chance of a persistent annoyance shower or two on both Saturday and Sunday. We may see a few sunny breaks, but don't count on too much sunshine. Temperatures will be near normal with highs around 11C and lows around 6C.

Big fall storm weakens

An angry Lake Michigan yesterday.

A big spin of low pressure over Ohio is slowly weakening this morning as it moves northeast into Ontario and eventually southern Quebec. The storm is really our first of what will be many strong cyclonic storms this fall season. Typically fueled by cold Arctic air and warm tropical air these storms deepen rapidly in the Midwest US and head for the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence Valley. This storm has produced very heavy rain especially across Ontario last evening (25-50mm) and overnight in southern Quebec. Montreal had about 15mm, most of that falling in a torrential downpour around 3am complete with lightning and thunder. The other story with this storm have been the strong winds. Wind gusts in the 60 and 70km/h range in the Montreal area have caused some minor damage and scattered power outages overnight. Further west across Illinois and Wisconsin on the colder the back side of the system, strong northerly winds over 100km/h (60mph) have whipped Lake Michigan into a frenzy with 25 foot waves and lake shore flooding.

The storm is weakening so conditions will slowly improve today. A few more showers and even a rumble of thunder is possible in southern Quebec. Winds will remain gusty all day but abate overnight tonight. The weekend looks gray and chilly at this time, typical October weather.

Strong winds...again

We have a strong low pressure area packed with tropical moisture taking shape over Kentucky this morning. The storm will lift north in southern and eastern Ontario over the next 24 to 36 hours. After another cloudy day in Montreal today, look for rain to overspread the area from south to north overnight and Thursday. The rain will be the heaviest west of the storm center over Ontario. Heavy rainfall warnings are in effect for southwest Ontario where up to 50mm is forecast. Less will fall in Montreal with about 25mm expected. The bigger story here in the St. Lawrence Valley will be the strong northeast winds. They will increase to between 30 and 50km/h today and further intensify to 50 to 80km/h tonight, just below warning criteria. Meanwhile around Quebec City and along the north shore of Lake Ontario, winds will exceed 90km/h therefore a high wind warning is in effect. The entire system will move northeast of the forecast area by Friday with a blustery wind and cooler temperatures expected into the weekend. Our high today will reach 13C, with milder air in the rain on Thursday at 18C before a cool down Friday and into the weekend around 10C.

Wet - windy week

It is definitely October. The walk with Bella this morning included gloves and an upgrade in the jacket department. We are at a chilly 9C on Ile Perrot, but it is damp and still breezy. Southern Quebec will remain under the influence of low pressure over James Bay today with a southwest flow of damp air coming off the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be around 13C with the ever present risk of showers.

We have a very stormy weather pattern shaping up for the balance of the week. Low pressure will get organized over the Ohio Valley and tap into moisture from a tropical low near Florida (see NOAA image above). That energy will slowly move northeast into Quebec by late in the week. Look for rain and windy weather to develop late Wednesday and taper to showers by late Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal with all the precipitation in Quebec falling as rain. About 25mm is expected here with as much as 50mm in southern and central Ontario. Meanwhile west of the storm center, colder air will arrive by late Thursday and switch the rain to snow in a swath from north of Sudbury to Timmins. Some models are predicting up to 10cm could fall by Friday. We will see how the storm evolves and tracks, this, however will not produce any snow in Montreal, but it is coming.

Unsettled week ahead

The wind keeps blowing this morning over southern Quebec, however at much lighter speeds in the 40km/h range. Peak gusts were close to 100km/h over portions of Ontario and Quebec over the weekend, somewhat less in Montreal gusting close to 70km/h at times. Very little in the way of damage was reported here, except for some torn umbrellas and lots and lots of leaves littering the ground. In one week we went from green and yellow leaves to bursts of red to trees stripped bare. The culprit for our weekend weather is a rather stagnant spin of low pressure located near James Bay. This storm will continue to provide gusty southwest winds today with periods of clouds and a stray shower or two. It should ease tomorrow with a few breaks before our next system moves in.

Much stronger low pressure will organize in the deep south with the help of Gulf of Mexico moisture. That plume of moisture will lift into the northeast and New England by Thursday with another round of soaking rain. Early estimates have at least 25mm falling and the possibility exists for as much as 75mm especially across Ontario and New York. Winds will get ramped up again in the 40-60km/h range. On the backside of the storm, snow is even possible across the western Great Lakes. Montreal and our entire area will remain on the warm side of this storm so no snow expected yet.

Strong Winds

Strong winds whip up waves on Lake Erie yesterday

(AccuWeather Photo)

8pm update: High Wind Warning in effect for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. Winds are increasing from the southwest between 50-90km/h until about 4am when they should start to diminish. The strongest winds are still to our west with gusts reported at 94km/h at Point Petre on Lake Ontario, 80km/h at Kingston, 67km/h at Toronto and 46km/h at Montreal with higher gusts off island. Radar is also showing an area of steady rain heading into southwestern Quebec at 8pm. Temperatures are chilly between 9 and 11C.

A deepening area of low pressure in central Ontario continues to spin towards the northeast this morning. The storm has sent a strong cold front across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec with showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours. Close to 40mm of rain fell here on Ile Perrot in the last 24 hours with more falling this morning. The difference today is it is a cold rain as we are only at 11C on the backside of the cold front. Adding to the misery today are strong southwest winds blowing at 50km/h in Montreal and stronger in Ontario. Gusts have been observed close to 80km/h. Wind warnings are posted for portion of Ontario closest to the lakes. In audition a wind advisory is in effect for northern New York. Winds in the warned areas could approach 90km/h while elsewhere they may be as high as 70km/h. The winds will ease after midnight tonight. Winds this strong are capable of downing tree limbs and power lines. Also take note that lots of leaves are falling off the trees this weekend. Wet leaves can make roads slick and also block sewers and rain gutters. Temperatures will do no better than the norm for this time of year, around 13C and overnight lows around 9C. There is a slim chance for a sunny break or two Sunday.

Looking ahead another big wet and windy fall storm could affect the area by Wednesday. Stay tuned for more on that.

Weekend Update

Enjoy the colors quickly, with strong winds forecast this weekend, lots of leaves will be hitting the ground.

9:45am UPDATE: Heavy Rain Warnings have been extended to Montreal and the metro region for up to 100mm of rain over the next 24 hours. The heavy rain will cause ponding of water on roads and highways as well as some flooding. Watch for blocked drains and sewers due to leaves.

Low pressure is developing this morning in Ohio and is expected to deepen rapidly and move into Ontario over the weekend. This system will bring strong winds to the region along with showers. This morning we remain under the influence of a low pressure trough swinging through the area. Bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move form south to north from New York into southern Quebec. The rain could be heavy at times with 30-50mm quite likely over the next 24-36 hours. Temperatures will be mild today but gradually cool over the weekend. As the system moves to our north, strong west and southwest winds will develop tonight and last into Saturday. Winds will gust between 40-60km/h in Montreal and locally as high as 80km/h in parts of Ontario and Quebec. Warnings and advisories may be needed for Saturday. Very little sunshine is expected this weekend.

On the backside of this windy system, it will turn sharply colder with rain turning to wet snow in northern Ontario, with as much as 10cm forecast for Pickle Lake and Big Trout Lake.

Unsettled weather

I must apologize for the lack of weather updates lately. We have a new 22 pound bundle of joy known as Bella, our Terrier. She has my schedule a little upside down these days. She loves to chase leaves, and with only a small percent down in our neighborhood, she has lots of work ahead of her. That will start as early as this weekend and continue into next week as two windy and progressively colder low pressure areas finally make it feel like October. Montreal temperatures, and indeed most of Quebec and Ontario, have been running well above normal, and in some cases double the normal. Our dry weather patter that started on October 3rd, has come to an end this morning as rain showers are moving across the valley. A warm front will lift north of Montreal today with mild and perhaps partly cloudy weather through mid-day Friday. A gusty cold front will then produce some heavier showers and perhaps thunder into Friday evening. The weekend looks very unsettled with much cooler weather and winds gusting up to 50km/h. Looks like lost of leaves blowing in the air for Bella.

Next week another strong low pressure area will produce more rain and wind. On the back side of this next storm some areas around the Great Lakes and upper elevations in Quebec and New York/Vermont could even see a period of wet snow. More on that later.

Jova makes landfall

Hurricane Jova moved inland overnight near Chamela, Mexico as a category 2 storm. Strong winds in excess of 100mph and heavy rain are spreading inland along the southwest Pacific coast of Mexico. Jova will continue to produce very heavy rain today (from 6-12 inches) as the system moves inland and interacts with the mountains of Mexico.

Our weather remains very pleasant for mid-October. Another mild, dry day is expected across the region before low pressure moves north from the Carolina's and brings an increased threat for rain. Clouds will be thickening an lowering all day with rain spreading from south to north across New York and Vermont and into Quebec by early Thursday morning. We will have a break in the action late Thursday before another front and low pressure area from Ontario bring showers and thunderstorms for Friday. The weekend looks showery and windy with temperatures closer to normal.

A little cooler

After a splendid weekend that featured abundant sunshine and temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal for Thanksgiving, it is back to reality this week, albeit slowly. A back door cold front spread some clouds yesterday across southern Quebec in the morning and eastern Ontario during the afternoon hours. That did little to affect the temperatures yesterday as once again most regions were at least 22C with several areas up to 24C and higher. Ottawa reached 24C and Toronto 26C. This morning we have noticeably cooler air in place at only 8C to start the day, even cooler in outlying regions away from water and the metro areas. Some fog has formed as well in response to the longer and cooler nights. It will be sunny again today and mild at 18C. Then the stage is set for a long period of poor weather with lowering temperatures.

Low pressure on the Florida coast this morning that produced heavy rain this weekend along with strong winds will slowly move northeast into Georgia and the Carolinas. The system, which really should have been named, will begin to affect southern Quebec and New England by Thursday and into the weekend with showers at first and then a steady rain and increasing winds. Temperatures will also fall to at or below normal by Saturday.

HURRICANE JOVA: One other important note this morning - Hurricane Jova, a major category 3 hurricane with 115mph is heading towards the southwest Mexican coast today. Jova is moving northeast at 6mph, about 130 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Normally hurricanes on the Pacific side of Mexico turn towards the west and begin to weaken over open waters. This storm is responding to a low pressure trough to the north and is moving east towards the coast. Landfall is expected today with high surf, flash floods and strong winds. Warnings are in place, and evacuations have been ordered. This will become a big weather story over the next 48 hours as flash flooding rains spread inland into central and northern Mexico and perhaps the US southwest.

Indian Summer

Warm and sunny weather is the rule across Ontario, Quebec and New England this weekend. Strong high pressure is producing warm southwest winds with temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal. Officially Indian Summer is two or three days of above normal temperatures after the first frost. Most regions in southern Quebec were near the freezing mark this past week with a hard freeze in several regions outside the city and in the mountains. Here on Ile Perrot we had temperatures very close to 0C on Thursday morning with frost scattered on the ground and roofs of homes. But there is no frost in the air this weekend as late August conditions are expected. Temperatures will soar to between 20 and 26C across the area on all three days with nothing but sun. At noon today, Montreal is already 21C, the normal high for today is 14C.

Enjoy the Holiday weekend and be safe.

Frost Warning

Major flooding in Salem, Mass yesterday morning. Heavy rain dumped 4 to 6 inches in Boston and across the metro area Monday night.

It looks like may parts of southern Quebec will have their first frost tonight especially off island to the north and south of metro Montreal. Environment Canada has posted a frost warning for all our regions for overnight lows into Thursday morning between 0 and 4C. That is the bad news, the good news is the weekend forecast is spectacular for all outdoor activities from apple picking to foliage viewing and even bike ridding. Temperatures on southwest wind and bright sunshine will soar to well above normal readings with highs from 19 to 25C right into early next week.

The news is not great everywhere. A major low pressure area over Atlantic Canada will produce high winds and heavy rain across the Gaspe, lower North Shore and most of the Maritimes including Newfoundland. Further north and west winter storm warnings are in effect for southeast Labrador. A total of 20 to 30 centimetres is expected inland and over higher terrain, most notably for the section of the trans Labrador highway from Red Bay to the Charlottetown junction. Not to leave out the west a major storm moving into southern California is producing the first major snow event over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Sunshine and warm weather on the way

After what seems like an eternity of low clouds, rain and drizzle in Quebec and Ontario, skies will clear starting tonight. We have one more day of drizzle and cool temperatures as low pressure, that has been stalled over the Great Lakes for two weeks, finally moves east. In its place will be strong high pressure that will usher in warm temperatures into the Thanksgiving Day weekend. Temperatures will soar under sunshine to well above normal reaching 24C on Saturday. The sunshine and warm weather will last well into Monday.

OPHELIA: Yesterday tropical storm Ophelia made landfall on the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland at around 9:30am local time. The storm produced strong winds up to 100km/h and heavy rain at the rate of 20mm an hour for several hours. The immediate coastline was the hardest hit with flooding, evacuations and some roads washed out. Much less rainfall occurred east and west of the storm track with only a few millimetres in other parts of the region. Powerful surf and surge affected the area and offshore waters as well with waves on the Grand Banks as high as 22 metres. A surge of 30-60cm (1-2 feet) was reported along the immediate coast and in bays and harbours. The area will receive a brief break before another intense non-tropical low pressure area affects Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Another round of strong winds, heavy rain and a dangerous storm surge is possible with this storm starting Wednesday. In addition to the rain, portions of western Newfoundland and Labrador will have their first significant snow of the season.

****Ophelia will continue moving rapidly northeast today and begin to affect the UK by this evening. You can read more about that and the record heatwave they just had HERE.

Ophelia in Newfoundland

Ophelia rapidly crossing Newfoundland this morning.

Ophelia continues to be torn apart this morning by strong wind shear and very cold 13C waters off the coast of Newfoundland. The storm has become post tropical with winds spreading out from the center, however the strongest winds remain offshore south and east of the center. That being said it is still windy on the Avalon this morning. Ophelia is rapidly moving northeast at 65km/h with 110km/h winds. So far Sagona Island has reported a gust to 83km/h with Cape Race at 78km/h and St John's at 65km/h. Waves are pounding the coastal areas in both Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. A surge of 1 to 2 feet is possible in bays and harbours along the Avalon this morning with seas building to 5 to 7 metres. Rainfall will only last 4 to 6 hours but could produce 75mm locally. Winds and seas will slowly subside later today.

SNOW in October

Snow is falling in the upper elevations of West Virginia this morning (AccueWeather.com)

It is amazing to me after all these years following weather just how quickly things can change. We just came off a week of record heat and humidity in many regions across North America and we are talking snow on October 2nd. A swirling area of low pressure located over the middle Atlantic is drawing moisture into the northeast and cold northerly winds across the Great Lakes on the western edge of the system. There is no mistaking this morning what season it is. A cold rain or drizzle is occurring across the lower lakes and into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Across portions of Pennsylvania and West Virginia snow is falling with several inches accumulating at higher elevations. A steady, cold rain is falling in the interior portions of New England and Quebec.

Here in Montreal we are at 9C with a very cold northerly wind at 45km/h and moisture approaching the city from the southeast. Look for a rainy, windy and cold 24 hours ahead of us. In Ontario it is even colder this morning with Toronto down to 5C and Hamilton 4C.

Above Hurricane Ophelia and the large upper level low are well displayed on the Environment Canada satellite image.

Meanwhile a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for coastal areas of southeast Newfoundland including the Avalon Peninsula. Ophelia is a category 2 hurricane with 125mph winds about 1220 km southwest of Cape Race. The storm is expected to pass close to the Newfoundland coast with high winds up to 100km/h and heavy rain, up to 75mm. Waves and seas are building today across Atlantic Canada and could reach 5 to 7 metres in Newfoundland. Ophelia is racing northeast at 30 mph and will approach Newfoundland early Monday.

Weekend Update

NOAA Image of category 2 Ophelia southeast of Bermuda on Friday morning.

There is lots to talk about on this last Friday in September. First off, the second of two upper level lows will begin to affect Quebec today. The storm along with a strong Arctic front are located over the Great Lakes. Strong winds in excess of 50mph have built waves to over 20 feet on Lake Michigan and high winds and waves are affecting all of the Great Lakes this morning. The waves have halted ferry service at several locations. Thunderstorms off of Lake Ontario pounded Toronto overnight with some flooding and gusty winds.

Meanwhile yesterday's front produced heavy rain in Montreal, especially in the west end and off island towards Ontario. Dorval recorded 26mm of rain while I measured about 51mm (2 inches) at my home on Ile Perrot. The frontal system also produced nasty thunderstorms across the northeast and Ontario with more flooding and even some waterspouts (tornadoes over water) over the lower lakes. More are expected today on Lakes Erie and Ontario as strong lake effect storms develop in the advancing cold air.

What all this means for Montreal and southern Quebec is a cool, cloudy and showery weekend, very fall like. High temperatures will struggle to reach 12C with gusty winds making it feel raw. This comes after a week of above normal temperatures, high humidity, swatting mosquito's and short sleeve shirrs. But don't expect the cold to last too long, more above normal temperatures will spread into the Prairies over the weekend and possibly move east next week.

HURRICANE OPHELIA: Finally, Ophelia is back from the dead. After dissipating early in the week the Atlantic storm regained strength and has rapidly become the fourth hurricane of the season. Ophelia this morning has category 2 winds of 105 mph and is located 695 miles southeast of Bermuda. Ophelia is expected to brush Bermuda before racing off towards southeast Newfoundland late in the weekend or early Monday. It is too soon to say what impacts she will have on the island province, but there will be some and they could be significant. Stay tuned.

Clouds & Showers

This update will be brief this morning. A closed off low pressure area over the Great Lakes is finally shifting east over Quebec today. That means our sunny and warm weather has come to an end. Look for lots of clouds and showers today and well into this upcoming weekend. Some showers may become heavy and there is even the risk of thunderstorms. Locally rainfall amounts could exceed 25mm (1 inch). Temperatures will be mild again today, well above normal at 23C but then cooler weather will move in as a northwest flow develops on the back side of this stubborn low pressure. By the weekend a steady rain is likely with temperatures no better than 10 or 12C during the day and as chilly as 3 or 4C at night. Frost is possible in Ontario this weekend and in Quebec early next week,

Goodbye to a true gentleman - Stuart Hall

There are several people who have influenced my interest in weather over the years. Two that stand out above all others were my father, who passed away 2 years ago, and WCAX-TV 3 Weather Forecaster, Stuart Hall. Hall passed away this past Sunday at the age of 90 after an exceptional life that included a long career at Channel 3 in Burlington, Vermont. Hall worked at WCAX-TV from two months after the station went on air in 1954 until his retirement in 1990.

Channel three is the CBS affiliate in Burlington, Vermont, available in Montreal by cable and they featured two local newscasts, one during the lunch hour, and the other at suppertime. It was the late show that would have me running to the TV set and planning my schedule around Stuart Hall's forecast. Not only did he provide his listeners with valuable information delivered in an always friendly manner, but he truly seemed to enjoy his job. It was that level of enthusiasm and expertise that drew me towards a life long interest in weather. Stuart Hall made weather "cool" long before the advent of the 24 hour weather channel and the Internet. Not only did he do so on air but also on a personal level. As a youngster, I sent him at least a half dozen letters, which he responded to each time, some handwritten and always signed by him. I still have them to this day, over 30 years after he wrote them to me, I have posted a few above.

Stuart Hall was a true gentleman and one I was so thankful to have watched through the years, and had the privilege to have communicated with. Thank You Mr. Hall, you were one of the good guys, God Bless.

“Through all kinds of weather What if the sky should fall? Just as long as we’re together, It doesn’t matter at all. When they’ve all had their quarrels and parted We’ll be the same as we started Just a-traveling along singing a song side by side.”

Photo and quote from blogs.burlingtonfreepress.com/weather
Read more HERE

More summer weather

NOAA image of a classic comma shaped upper level low spinning to our west and keeping the showers and storms over Ontario.

The sunshine and warm weather will last at least another 2 days here in southern Quebec as a stubborn slow moving upper level low spins to our west. The storm system is detached from the normal flow of air and remains nearly stationary over the upper Midwest. The result is showers and thunderstorms with even waterspouts reported over the Great Lakes since Friday but warm sunshine here in our region. Eventually the system will weaken, dissipate and begin to slowly drift east. We thought that would happen Wednesday, but it looks like we may squeeze another sunny day out of the high pressure. At any event cooler weather and showers are expected by late week and into the weekend. In the meantime we reached 25C (77F) yesterday and we can expect the same today. It is currently 14C in Montreal, and with more darkness than daylight now, we have a very heavy dew outside with patchy fog in places.

I always look around for interesting weather obs in the morning, here is one I thought you might like to see:

GJOA, Nunavut at 6am was -1C with 0.3km visibility in light snow, and an east wind of 60 gusting to 80km/h with a winter storm warning posted for 20cm (8 inches) of snow.

Enjoy our splendid summery weather here in Quebec and eastern Ontario today.

Warm weather continues

A stubborn cut off low stalled over the Great Lakes has meant poor weather for southern Ontario but spectacular weather on either side of that system in Quebec and across the west. Yesterday it was hard to tell it was late September with a warm and humid 24C high and light southwest winds. It is already 14C this morning on our way to another warm day at 25C, well above the normal high of 17C. It will be even warmer on Tuesday at 27C (81F) before the Great Lakes storm system moves into out area and hangs around into the weekend with clouds and showers starting some time on Wednesday.

Meanwhile the Prairies and Alberta are scorching under mid-summer heat. Edmonton recorded its warmest day of 2011 with a high of 32.5C smashing the old record of 30.6C set in 1952. They were not the warmest, Leader, Sask. had a high of 35.4C to be the warmest in the country. Assiniboia, Sask. also had a record high of 32.1C. Several other records fell across both provinces and south into Montana and the Dakotas.

SNOW: There is some winter on the weather map but you have to go all the way north into the high Arctic where winter storm warnings are posted for eastern and central Nunavut. A strong fall storm will bring 10-15cm of snow and winds over 70 km/h producing blowing snow and dangerous travel. Enjoy the bonus summer weather here in southern Canada as many were over the weekend. All of us know this weather is a gift and soon the seasons will balance things out.

Weekend Update

From AccuWeather.com - low pressure stalled to our west is providing warm humid air here in Quebec and more heavy rain for the I-95 corridor.

Fall has arrived as of 5:05am this morning with lots of dense fog around. A very moist and warm air mass remains well established over the region. Low pressure is stalled to our west over the Great Lakes with a steady stream of southwest winds bringing in the unseasonable warmth and humidity. All weekend and well into next week, temperatures will remain well above normal. For the near term we have dense fog this morning across the region, especially south of the city and into New York and Vermont. The National Weather Service has posted a Dense Fog Advisory until 9am this morning. Visibility is as low and 1/8 of a mile. Here on Ile Perrot we have some mist and fog but is otherwise clear. Most of the upcoming weekend will be rain free and very warm for late September. Temperatures will range from 20 to 25C (68 to 77F) with clouds and sun mixed and the outside chance of a shower today and Saturday. Sunday will be sunny and warm. Temperatures at night will only be in the 14 to 17C range (56F to 63F).

The bulk of the moisture will remain well south of Quebec across the middle Atlantic and northeast. The same dynamics that will be pumping warm and humid air into our region will also produce steady and at times heavy rain in that area. Flash flood watches are in effect from Virginia to New Jersey. This is the same area hit hard by Irene, and with up to 3 more inches of rain possible, more flooding is expected.

Autumnal Equinox

Equinox is the Latin word for equal nights and that is what we are approaching this week. Fall officially arrives at 5:05am Eastern time on Friday, making today the last day of the summer. Summer was spectacular in southern Quebec with more sun than cloud and lots of warm weekends. We enjoyed much better weather than a big chunk of North America that had everything from severe droughts to floods.

In reality the equal day vs night event will take place for Montreal on Monday, September 26 when the sun rises at 6:47am and sets at 6:46pm giving us 11:59 of daylight. After that it is a slippery slope into darkness where night is longer than day and this continues sadly until spring.

The last day of summer in Montreal is mild with temperatures already at 19C or one degree above the normal of 18C for this date. Temperatures will reach 23C with humid conditions and thunderstorms possible. A cold front to our west over Ontario should bring in the chance for showers and storms through the midday before skies clear out. Of note this morning, the Richelieu River southeast of Montreal that flooded so badly this spring is running very high for September. As a result of the heavy rain falling from Hurricane Irene making its way into Lake Champlain and flowing north, the river is three feet above normal. Officials are watching it closely for possible flooding this fall, but they are especially concerned for next spring.

Perfect Ten

As summer draws to a close we are looking at a near perfect day today. High pressure will guarantee bright sunshine and warm temperatures in Montreal and region wide into Ontario and New England. Temperatures will rise to 23C in the city and 20-25C across the area. Tomorrow clouds will be on the increase and showers will develop, but it will remain mild at 23C. With the long and chilly nights that occur as falls approaches, some fog formed overnight. It is quite dense in places especially outside the city, but it should dissipate quickly this morning.

Yesterday's North Dakota low pressure area produced heavy rain across southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. 74mm fell at Winkler, Manitoba with 50-60mm elsewhere. Strong winds were also reported from Saskatchewan and the Dakotas into Manitoba.

T.S. Ophelia: Another tropical storm has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. Ophelia is located about 2200 km east of the Leeward Islands. The system has 45mph winds and is moving west at 13mph. Slow strengthening is likely as Ophelia moves towards the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and eventually the Bahamas by late in the upcoming weekend.

Clearing today

(AccuWeather.com)

A slow moving and weakening cold front produced some steady shower activity overnight with about 15mm of rain at my home in southwestern Quebec. Most of the rain is off to our south and east and clearing skies are moving this way from Ontario. It will be a rather mild couple of days ahead of us into the first half of the weekend with temperatures in the low to mid 20's (70-75F). Sunshine will return this afternoon region wide followed by clear skies tonight and a near perfect day on Wednesday. Clouds will be on the increase overnight into Thursday as a frontal system and slow moving low pressure head this way just in time for the weekend. At this time showers and mild for Friday and Saturday, with much cooler weather by Sunday.

Fall arrives this Friday and we have some climatic indicators on the weather map. Normally as fall arrives and progresses, the low pressure areas over the continent begin to become much more energetic. We are seeing a gusty low pressure this morning over the Dakotas. This system will produce heavy rain today across southern Manitoba and into Northwest Ontario. Amounts could easily exceed 50mm. Meanwhile on the back side of the storm strong winds are occurring across the Dakotas and southern Saskatchewan with gusts possible over 90km/h/ This system will move east and affect northern Ontario with rain and dare I say perhaps a period of wet snow! Temperatures fall behind the storm, with well below normal readings expected to end the week.

Warmer weather

Location of yesterday's small quake on the Ontario/Quebec border. (USGS Map)
(click on map for larger image)

After our first taste of frost and fall like weather, we will see a return to mild temperatures this week along with some cloud cover and showers. The weekend was spectacular but chilly with overnight lows in the single digits in most areas and even below freezing across the Adirondacks and Laurentians. Scattered frost was observed at many locations away from the water and urban areas. The high pressure that was responsible for the clear skies and cool temperatures, crested over the region last night and will drift off to the east today allowing for some warmer air to return. Temperatures will rebound after another cool start today up to 21C in Montreal and perhaps 18 to 20C across the region. A cold front will introduce clouds and showers from the St. Lawrence Valley south and east after midnight tonight until midday Tuesday before skies clear out once again. A sunny, warm Wednesday is on tap, perhaps the last 25C day of summer 2011.

Earthquake: A small quake rattled the area yesterday afternoon around 3:19pm. The 4.0 magnitude quake was centered near Buckingham 41km east of Ottawa and northwest of Montreal, and was felt all over a wide area. No damage was reported.

Frosty night

Another cold and frosty night is expected across southern Quebec with overnight lows from 5C in Montreal down to below freezing off island north and south of the city. Frost warnings are in effect for a wide portion of the region from the Laurentians south into the Townships as well as Eastern Ontario. Sunday will be sunny and warmer with temperatures warming up to 20C.

Hurricane Maria made landfall on the Avalon Peninsula late Friday with gusty winds and about 60mm of rain, but only 13mm in St. John's. The fast moving storm meant water and wave damage was minimal and the strongest winds remained well east of the center with 130km/h winds offshore. On the west side of the system in the broad circulation winds gusted to 90km/h over far eastern Quebec and the Gaspe.

Hurricane Watch for Newfoundland

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Newfoundland coast from Arnolds Cove to Brigus South. At 8pm Hurricane Maria was racing northeast at 65km/h towards a collision with the Avalon Peninsula. Forecasters expect the storm, which is about 1475km southwest of Cape Race, to arrive on the coast sometime Friday. Hurricane force winds in excess of 120km/h are forecast along with 3 to 7 metre seas (9 to as much as 20 feet) along the coast and up to 90mm of rainfall. The good news is Maria will be a fast moving storm hopefully lessening the impact and duration on any one location. Effects from Maria in the form of clouds, showers and rough surf will be felt all across Atlantic Canada for the next 24 to 48 hours before Maria moves north over the Atlantic as an extratropical storm.

The official Environment Canada statement is available HERE.

Cooler weather

The forecast track of tropical storm Maria brings her west of Bermuda, east of Nova Scotia and then across southeast Newfoundland by the weekend.
(Environment Canada)

Wow, how quickly the weather and seasons can change. With fall just a week away, cold air is pouring into the northern plains and Prairies. It is -5C this morning in Regina and 0C in Winnipeg, both were in the 30's just last week. Montreal managed to reach 27C yesterday before a turbulent cold front raced across the region. Thunderstorms lasting several hours, produced heavy rain, over 25mm in many locations.

Today southern Quebec will see variable skies with temperatures nudging to the 21C mark. Another cold front will bring showers tonight and a re-enforcing shot of cold air that will see temperatures drop to cold lows around 5C by Friday morning and daytime highs only around 15C.

Tropical Storm Maria is south of Bermuda this morning and expected to pass west of the island on Thursday before accelerating northeast. The storm is forecast to come close to Nova Scotia and possibly cross the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland by the weekend. Heavy rain, strong surf and gusty winds can be expected from Maria in southern coastal Nova Scotia and especially southern and eastern Newfoundland. Currently the storm has 60mph winds with some strengthening expected over the next 24 hours.

Strong storms

9:24pm UPDATE: Severe Thunderstorm Watch will expire by 10pm for Montreal. About 25mm of rain has fallen since 7:30 here on L'Ile Perrot. Most of the strong storms are south of Montreal to the US border and into the Champlain Valley. The activity will continue to move south and east and conditions will calm down shortly.

myweather.com radar image at 8:10pm this evening shows storms moving across Ile Perrot and onto Montreal island. A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for the region. They should move south and east of the city by 9pm.

Lightning and thunder along with heavy rain is spreading across the Montreal metro region at 8pm. Lines of heavy thunderstorms have been affecting the region and should continue moving northeast along a cold front for about the next hour or so. The storms have produced some rotation so an isolated tornado is possible. Tornado warnings were issued for Laval earlier this evening, but have since expired. No damage has been reported so far.

Severe thunderstorms possible

A sign of the seasons - last nights full Harvest Moon as seen in southern California.

It is still hard for me to believe that summer is nearing an end, especially with the way the weather has been for the last 48 hours. There is however, evidence on the weather map this morning that changes are coming. Lets start with yesterday's muggy high of 26C in Montreal, well above normal for this time of year. Other cities in the region were equally warm with Ottawa and Toronto at 29C. We can expect much the same today with a mix of sun and clouds, warm and windy with an increasing likelihood of thunderstorms at any time today. Last evening strong storms moved along the Ottawa River and into the central and north end of Montreal, downtown and Laval. About 7mm of rain fell at the airport but much more locally in the city. It remained dry across my area with no rain or thunder.

This morning we are already under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch here in southwest Quebec as storms develop along the St. Lawrence Valley and drift northeast. The watch in posted until 9:30am. Look for more watches and warnings this afternoon as a potent cold front sweeps across the area from Ontario. The main threat will be heavy rain, perhaps 30mm, but small hail and strong winds are possible as well. The front will usher in much colder air, just how cold? Well frost and freeze warnings are in effect across the Dakotas and Minnesota with below freezing temperatures forecast tonight. More frost is likely across northern Ontario and Manitoba by the weekend. So I imagine we will see single digits for lows in southern Quebec and teens for highs as fall begins to influence our weather.

Warm start to week

Maria's forecast track takes her close to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later this week. (National Hurricane Center)

What a difference 24 hours can make. Montreal's suburbs was about 8C yesterday at this time, today, the temperature is already 19C just shy of the high on Sunday. Overnight winds responded to a warm front lifting north of the city, and switched to the southwest bringing in much warmer and humid air. The warm air mass will be with us through Tuesday with a general mix of sun and clouds and a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The risk will be highest late Tuesday as a cold front moves across southern Quebec. Temperatures will cool down significantly by the middle to late portion of the work week.

Over the weekend Tropical Storm Nate dissipated along the central Gulf Coast of Mexico with very little fanfare. Maria is still a tropical storm with 60mph winds, located in the Caribbean about 140 miles north of San Jaun, Puerto Rico. Maria is expected to take a sharp right turn and move along the east coast, but well offshore. Her effects may be felt later in the week in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

9-11-2001

Please remember the victims of 911 as well as those whose sacrifices are so great so that we may live free. Thank you to those who watch over our communities everyday...Valley Weather

Weekend Update

Major flooding in northern Virginia (Washington Post)

High pressure will settle into Quebec and Ontario this weekend giving us a sunny and seasonable weekend. Temperatures will be warm today at 26C, but lower into the 18 to 20C range for daytime highs this weekend. Overnight lows will be chilly under moonlit skies between 5 and 9C. The full harvest moon will occur on Monday.

HEATWAVE: The west is enjoying what could be their final shot at summer. temperatures soared into the 30's across Alberta and Saskatchewan including a record breaking 34C at Saskatoon. At least two more hot days are on tap for the region before a cold front ushers in much cooler September air by Monday. Edmonton could break a 20 year record today with the temperature expected above 31C. The region had a dismal summer with lots of rain and cool weather.

Hurricane Katia is well south of Nova Scotia this morning and expected to remain well offshore. However Environment Canada is predicting waves and a swell of 15 to 20 feet along the immediate south facing coastlines. They are advising anyone venturing into the area to so with great care. Nate remains a nearly stationary off the Mexican Coast, but is expected to slowly drift towards Veracruz while becoming a hurricane. Maria is expected to move into the Lesser Antilles today as a tropical storm.

FLOODING: Major flooding continues in the Northeast as rivers crest from heavy rain created by Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Some areas have had 20 inches of rain from both storms. Major flooding this week is occurring from Northern Virginia and Washington DC, north into Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York including Binghampton and the Susquehanna Valley. Thousands have been forced to evacuate and the death toll is at 5. Meanwhile the damage clean up from Irene continues in hard hit Vermont and New York. Some rivers in both states recorded there highest floods in recorded modern history.