Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Once in a blue moon...

Time-lapse image of a total lunar eclipse and "blood" moon 
(Photo Fred Espenak - NASA.com)
Once-in-a-blue-moon is a non-astronomical term referring to the presence of two full moons within a single month. Oddly enough, this phenomena is not that rare, occurring on average every 2.5 years. As a matter of fact, we will see two blue moons this year, Wednesday morning and again in March.

The thing that makes this particular blue moon special is the celestial trifecta accompanying it early Wednesday morning. The full Wolf moon will be in Perigee, the moons closest approach to the earth. This makes it appear as a super moon, up to 14 percent larger, and 30 percent brighter by some estimates. There will also be a full lunar eclipse occurring, as the moon enters the shadow of the earth, essentially cutting off the sunlight that reflects off the moon. This will create a rusty orange appearance, or blood moon. In a nutshell: a super moon blood moon and lunar eclipse all at once.  This is truly a are event, happening the last time on March 31, 1866.

Here in Montreal, there is a very small window of opportunity for viewing this event. We will only experience a partial eclipse, as the moon will set before totality occurs. You will have to be awake in the pre-dawn hours, watching the western horizon for this spectacular show. The eclipse will start at 6:48AM EST, with moonset in Montreal occurring at 7:17am. Thankfully the weather will be clear, crisp and cold, perfect for viewing. Enjoy, and as always, be safe!

Friday, January 26, 2018

Mild weekend for Montreal

Mild weather will prevail this weekend across Ontario and Quebec. This will give homeowners in Montreal a chance to clear away some of the ice from Tuesday's storm. Enjoy the break, a return to colder weather, with frequent snow, is expected for the beginning of February. (AccuWeather)
A much needed warming trend is underway across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario to end the work week. After the 20mm of freezing rain that fell on Tuesday, Montreal and the suburbs have been covered in a nasty layer of ice. Walking has been beyond difficult, at least in my neighbourhood. To say the least, the walks have been short, the dog is not impressed.

Friday morning was very cold in southern Quebec, -20C (-4F) on L'Ile Perrot, and only slightly warmer in Montreal at -19C. The temperature has since warmed up to -7C (19F) this evening, and will continue to rise up to a high of 5C (41F) on Saturday. Time to scrape away the ice on the driveway and free up the downspouts. A clipper type low pressure system will pass well north of Montreal late Saturday, spreading a few clouds and perhaps a shower or snowflake into our area. Sunday will be slightly cooler, with high of 2C (36F), along with partly cloudy skies. The short-lived thaw will come to an end Monday, as cooler air arrives behind a cold front.

Next week looks relatively quiet at this time, with just some light precipitation, along with near-normal temperatures. We will be closely watching the potential for a storm system to affect the region by the end of the week. The first few days of February are looking mild at this time, but beyond that, indications are for a cold, snowy pattern for most of the month. Time will tell, in the meantime, enjoy the mild weather.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Freezing rain closes schools - cancels flights

Freezing rain and snow have left most parking lots and sidewalks in very poor shape this morning. This contractor was making the walk from the car to work much easier in St. Laurent. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Apparently we have the solution to Montreal's traffic woes, close all the schools. Despite 8mm of freezing rain overnight, the traffic flow is relatively smooth this morning. The same cannot be said at Trudeau Airport, where dozens of flights have been delayed or cancelled. The storm started during the Monday evening commute in Montreal, dropping a quick 10cm of snow on the city, before changing to freezing rain around 10pm.  The freezing rain has coated everything in a layer of ice, making walking and getting to and from your car, the biggest challenges of the day. For that reason, all the major school boards in southern Quebec, have cancelled classes for the day. As of 8am, the hydro grid seems to be holding, with only 6700 customers without power.

The temperature remains below 0C (32F) in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley this morning, but has since warmed above freezing from the South Shore to the US border. Another band of precipitation will be arriving shortly in the city, with 5-10mm expected by noon. There is even the risk of a few rumbles of thunder with this next area of rain. The trailing cold front will arrive later today, dropping temperatures once again to well below freezing, -7C (19F). Any showers or freezing rain will taper off to flurries overnight, with gusty northwest winds up to 60km/h. Colder weather is expected through Friday, before another warm system arrives with more rain expected this weekend.

Sunday, January 21, 2018

Significant freezing rain expected for southern Quebec

Environment Canada has posted widespread freezing rain warnings across southern and eastern Ontario, as well as southern Quebec. Significant icing is possible is several location. (AccuWeather.com)
Freezing Rain Warning posted for metro Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.

Low pressure will move from Colorado northeast towards the lower Great Lakes on Monday. A warm front will approach the St Lawrence Valley by Monday evening. Along and to the north of this front, a wide area of freezing rain is expected, lasting well into the overnight hours. In Montreal, light snow will begin early Monday afternoon, and transition to freezing rain after the supper hour. Expect 2 to 4cm of snow, with up to 10mm of freezing rain possible in Montreal. North of the St. Lawrence River, heavy snow is likely. The precipitation should change to rain on Tuesday, as temperatures rise above freezing from Montreal south. Northeast of Montreal towards Quebec City, heavy snow is forecast, followed by an extended period of freezing rain. Travel will be slow and dangerous late Monday in eastern Ontario, and across southern Quebec into Tuesday.

The system will move east of the region by late Tuesday, with all precipitation changing back to light snow before ending. Winds are forecast to increase as well on Monday, out of the northeast 30-60km/h. The wind will veer to the south early Tuesday, before backing to the west late in the day. The temperature in Montreal will slowly rise on Monday, all the way above freezing by Tuesday morning. The high on Tuesday will be very mild, 5C (41F). Behind the storm, temperatures will drop back down to -8C (18F) by Wednesday morning.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

The calm before the next storm

An image of a Montreal police officer attempting to ticket a snow covered Toyota Supra, has gone viral. The "car" is actually completely made of snow, the creation of 33-year-old machinist and artist Simon Laprise. Laprise made the car in front of his home in Montreal North after last weekends snowstorm. The police were quite amused by the whole event, leaving behind a thank you note under the only true car part, a wiper on the front of the snow sculpture. The note simply read, "Vous avez fait notre soiree!!! HAHAHA..."
After Montreal's record-breaking 36cm snowstorm last weekend, the weather has been rather docile this week. Despite that tranquilly, snow packed side roads and lots of icy spots and potholes on major highways have resulted in terrible traffic this week. Montreal had a frigid start to the work week, but the last day or so has been considerably milder. The mild weather will persist into the early part of next week. Along with the milder weather, clouds and flurries have prevailed across southern Quebec. We can expect this same sort of mundane weather into the weekend, with periods of very light snow and mild temperatures, near 0C (32F),  or perhaps slightly above by Saturday. The warm weather will have authorities watching area rivers and streams. Last Friday's mild weather and rainfall, produced ice jams and flooding in many parts of southern Quebec and New England. Read more HERE.

The next major storm system is expected to develop over the weekend in the southwest US, approaching the central Great Lakes by Monday. This storm is several days away, but a track like this usually results in a snow to rain event for southern Quebec. With the low pressure center passing west of Montreal, warmer air would be drawn into the St. Lawrence Valley. We can expect snow to develop Monday, mixing with freezing rain and eventually changing to rain early Tuesday. The mess will change back to snow late Tuesday night. Amounts may be significant, but I am not anticipating as much precipitation as this past storm. It is nearly impossible this far out to determine exactly how much precipitation will fall, what type and where. Stay tuned!

Saturday, January 13, 2018

From record warmth to the biggest snowstorm of the season for Montreal

Every now and then Mother Nature puts on a show to remind us who is in charge. The car above lies buried under the overnight snow on L'Ile Perrot. It has been a wild 24 hours, from record heat to the biggest snowstorm of the season here in southern Quebec. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for southern Quebec.

The biggest snowstorm of the year is ongoing in southern Quebec this morning, just 24 hours after record warmth. Police are advising against travel on all area highways as heavy snow continues to fall in Montreal. As of 9am, 30cm is on the ground here on L'Ile Perrot, and the snow is still falling. Zero visibility is being observed in many locations. There have been hundreds of accidents reported across eastern Ontario and western Quebec. The biggest wreck occurred near Prescott, Ontario last evening, when several trucks collided spilling chemicals, and shutting down both directions of Highway 401 overnight. The road remains closed this morning, and the OPP is advising you stay home.

The snow started around 8pm Friday evening in Montreal, after what was a remarkably warm day. The temperature reached plus 9.8C (50F) in Montreal, smashing the old record of 5.3C set in 1986. In addition to the warmth, heavy rain created isolated flooding in many locations. Montreal had its wettest January 12 on record as well, with 17mm falling. A powerful arctic front dropped the temperature below freezing within a couple of hours last evening. The current temperature is -13C (9F). The snow is being caused by low pressure riding along the aforementioned front. The heaviest snow is falling along an axis lined up with the St Lawrence Valley and points immediately south of it to the US border. By the time the snow ends early this afternoon, 30 to 40cm will have fallen. Frigid temperatures will arrive behind the snow, with an overnight low of -24C (-11F) by Sunday morning.

Friday, January 12, 2018

Rapid freeze and snowstorm to follow record high in Montreal

A powerful cold front will drop the temperature in Montreal from record values today to brutal cold by Sunday morning. Along with the cold will come heavy snow tonight and Saturday. (AccuWeather.com)
Winter Storm Warning in effect for Montreal.

A major change in the weather will occur today as a powerful arctic front crosses the St. Lawrence Valley during the evening hours. Before then, we have a very warm and moist air mass over southern Quebec Friday morning. In fact several locations have already registered record high temperatures for the date. Saint Anicet reached 14C (56F) in the wee hours this morning, a remarkably warm temperature for January 12, and the warmest in the country. Montreal's Trudeau Airport is at 6.3C (44F), also a record for the date, surpassing the 5.3C set in 1986.

In addition to the mild weather, we have an area of heavy rain about to move into southern Quebec. A decent amount is forecast today, 15-20mm, creating the potential for some flooding. The rain is in advance of a sharp arctic boundary that will chase the warm air back to the south. The front will arrive in Montreal close to the evening commute, changing the rain to freezing rain and sleet. The temperature swing will be rapid and brutal, dropping from 7C (45F) in Montreal, down to -5C (23F) in just a few hours. A flash freeze is expected, with roads rapidly icing late in the day. The freezing rain should change to snow after 8pm in Montreal. Low pressure is forecast to move along the cold front tonight and Saturday, increasing the coverage of snow in Montreal. The snow will be heavy at times, especially Saturday morning. Accumulations of 15-25cm (6-10 inches) are expected. Gusty northwest winds behind the front tonight and Saturday will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. The temperature will continue to fall on Saturday, down to a low of -22C (-8F) by Sunday morning. That represents nearly a 30 degree drop in temperatures from this morning.

Widespread weather warnings are in effect today from Ontario across Quebec, into Atlantic Canada and south into New England and New York. If you can, postpone any unnecessary travel from Friday evening thought Saturday afternoon.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Major winter storm to impact region after brief thaw

Freezing rain warning in effect for Montreal and Ottawa today and tonight.

Frozen in time. A much needed thaw will begin in Montreal on Thursday, but end just as quickly on Friday. A potent storm system arrives for Saturday, with heavy snow expected. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Temperatures are on the rise today as clouds increase across southern Quebec. A warm front will approach the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon and overnight along with an increase in moisture. Light freezing rain is forecast to start in eastern Ontario late this afternoon, and move into Montreal by the middle of the evening. The precipitation will be light, perhaps 1-4mm, but any freezing rain can be problematic on the roads. As the temperature continues to rise overnight, up and above the freezing point, any frozen precipitation will taper to a few showers. On Thursday, gusty southerly winds will allow for the temperature to climb to near record levels, between 5C (41F) and 10C (50F) in southern Quebec. The record for Montreal is 9.4C set in 1975.

The commute this week in Montreal has been slow and painful at times. The extremely cold weather has been slow to moderate, making roads snow covered and slick. (ValleyWeather Photo)
Major Winter Storm
By Friday, a strong arctic boundary will move across Ontario into southern Quebec by the supper hour, bringing a quick end to our thaw. Expect steady rain to develop in Montreal ahead of the front, along with very mild temperatures to start to the day. As the front moves south of Montreal, the mercury will drop quickly, from a high of 6C (43F), down to -7C (19F) by Saturday morning. Any precipitation will change to freezing rain and eventually snow from west to east. How much of each type of precipitation has yet to be determined, but it will be significant. The front will stall across central New England on Saturday, with deepening low pressure moving along it. Freezing rain and snow will continue all day Saturday, with blowing snow and dropping temperatures. My current thinking is 10 to 20mm of rain will fall on Friday, followed by 15 to 25cm of snow overnight into Saturday. This is subject to change as the track of the low pressure becomes more clear. Due to the nature of this event, amounts could vary significantly by region, depending on your local temperature and how fast the changeover occurs. The mess will freeze solid over the weekend, as temperatures drop back to below normal values. Skies will slowly clear Sunday, with a daytime high of only -12C (10F).

Monday, January 08, 2018

Thaw equals relief from the bitter cold for Montreal

Warmer air is trying to push into Montreal this week. Before then, we can expect a messy mix of snow and perhaps freezing rain. The mild air will be pushed out of the region by Saturday. (ValleyWX Photo)
What a difference a few hours can make in weather forecasting and observations. If you would have asked me just a few days ago if I thought we were going to have a thaw this month, I would have likely said no. Yet here we are, just a couple of days away from a forecast high of 8C (47F) in Montreal. The first phase of this thaw will persist for about 48 hours in Montreal. I expect it will be a difficult transition to above freezing temperatures, as the ground is so cold, along with a very firmly packed snow base.

Before we look at the future, let's just take a quick peak at the recent weekend cold snap. If you thought the weather was brutal Friday and Saturday in Montreal, it was. Strong low pressure moving across Atlantic Canada, relentlessly pushed gusty north winds and biting cold into southern Quebec. At Trudeau Airport, the wind gusted over 50km/h (31 mph) for nearly 42 consecutive hours from January 4th to the 6th. At the same time, plummeting temperatures produced wind chills colder than -30C (-22F) for 53 consecutive hours. The peak wind gust measured was 70km/h, with the coldest windchill -40C. The wind, combined with 10cm of fresh falling and blowing snow, produced visibility under a few kilometres for several days. Near blizzard conditions were observed at times on the flat farmland south of Montreal towards the US border, from early Friday into Saturday morning.

January Thaw
Our much anticipated January thaw will come in two parts, the first this week, and another mild stretch around the 20th. A surge of warm air is arriving today on southwest winds. The initial warm air advection is producing a moderate snowfall of 10 to 15cm in the St. Lawrence Valley. The temperatures will continue to warm this week, rising above the freezing point by Thursday. The milder weather will come with more precipitation, in the form of freezing rain and rain late Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday night, colder air will return, along with a transition from rain to snow in Montreal. Saturday could be quite stormy, as another system approaches from the US southwest. By the weekend, temperatures will fall back to more normal values which are -6C/-15C. If you have travel plans late Friday and Saturday, you will want to play close attention to updated forecasts later this week.

Saturday, January 06, 2018

Wicked Nor'Easter to ease grip - milder air on the way

Frigid cold and blowing snow made travel difficult in southern Quebec on Friday. (ValleyWeather)
The powerful winter storm that made headlines from Florida to Labrador, will slowly begin to ease its grip on southern Quebec today. For over 24 hours, Montreal has experienced winds in excess of 60km/h, combined with bitter cold and light snow. Visibility at times has been close to zero, especially southwest of the city. On Friday, the Surete du Quebec were advising against travel outside the metro area. Roads were snow packed, icy and visibility was poor. Numerous highways were closed after cars and truck hit the ditch. The wind and cold produced dangerous windchill readings in the middle minus 30s. The frigid weather will persist today, with a high of -20C (-4F) and windchill values between -30 and -40C. The good news is that we will see a moderation in temperatures starting Sunday and persisting this week. We may even see high temperatures nudge above the freezing point by Thursday or Friday. Unfortunately the warmer weather will come at a price, with 5-10cm of snow forecast to start the week, and a messy mix to end it. That mixed precipitation may include a prolonged period of freezing rain. However, the devil is in the details, it will depend on the storm track next weekend. This will have to be watched closely. In any event, temperatures are expected to be closer to normal for the second half of January.

Just one of the many power poles and infrastructure under assault in Nova Scotia form the Blizzard of 2018. (Nova Scotia Power Photo)
The Blizzard of 2018
As bad as conditions were in southern Quebec, we were on the far western edge of this powerful storm. The coastlines were hammered with record setting tides and surf. Widespread flooding and major damage was reported along the New England coast on Thursday. Boston Harbor measured a new record high tide, surpassing those of the famous Blizzard of 1978. Flooding and coastal damage was also observed in Nova Scotia. In Nova Scotia, winds were fierce, with a peak gust of 170km/h (105mph) at Grand Etang on Cape Breton Island. The wind, rain and snow cut power to over 140,000 customers according to Nova Scotia Power. In Quebec, heavy snow and blowing snow stretched from the Eastern Townships towards the Gaspe and Lower North Shore. Winds reached over 100km/h in many sections of the lower St Lawrence Valley, closing highways and business. The storm had a tremendous impact on air travel, with over 4000 flights cancelled on Thursday alone across eastern North America. Several airports are still working through the backlog of passengers this weekend. In the deep south, some airports remained closed Friday, covered in a blanket of snow and shivering in record cold.

Major flooding from record setting high tides was reported along the New England coast. (Photo: Duxbury, Massachusetts Fire Department)

Wednesday, January 03, 2018

Powerful coastal storm to brush Montreal - arctic cold returns

Heavy equipment clearing the latest snowfall in Saint Laurent on Wednesday morning. With the recent deep freeze, the mounds of snow are growing rapidly. (ValleyWX)
Happy New Year! The cold air has briefly retreated in southern Quebec, allowing the extreme cold warning to expire, finally. Temperatures "warmed" to -14C (7F) on Tuesday, with 5cm of fresh snow. The snow caused the usual chaos on Montreal highways, with numerous accidents reported.
Montreal will remain on the western edge of a powerful east coast storm. (AccuWeather)
Strong Coastal Storm
Our attention now turns to a rapidly developing low pressure area off the Florida coast. The storm is forecast to deepen into a major Nor'Easter within the next 24 hours, while skirting the Atlantic seaboard. Snow and freezing rain is expected from northern Florida into Atlantic Canada. This morning, snow is falling as far south as Tallahassee, Florida. The ice and snow has caused wide ranging delays to air and ground travel along the entire east coast. Heavy snow is forecast along the Carolina coast into Virginia Beach today. As the storm strengthens on Thursday, heavy snow will overspread coastal New England and Atlantic Canada. In addition to the snow, winds will increase along the path of the storm, gusting in excess of 100km/h at times. Coastal areas from Cape Cod into Nova Scotia can also expect some flooding and beach erosion. Widespread power outages are possible in New England and the Maritimes.

The hardest hit regions can expect up to 40cm (14 inches) of snow. Here in southern Quebec, we will remain on the extreme western edge of the system, with light snow and strong northeast winds developing from east to west Thursday afternoon. If the track of the system remains constant with the forecast models, we can expect 5 to 10cm of snow late Thursday into Friday morning. Across the Eastern Townships and into the Gaspe and far eastern Quebec, 15 to 30cm of snow is likely. Travel will be extremely difficult for anyone going south or east of Montreal on Thursday and Friday.

Fresh Arctic Blast
Behind the storm, a fresh blast of arctic air will surge into the region, along with strong north winds. Temperatures will drop to -18C (0F) during the day Friday, with overnight lows expected by Saturday morning between -25C and -30C (-13C to -22C). Daytime highs on Saturday will be frigid, near -22C (-7F) in Montreal. Combined with the strong winds expected, the windchill will be as cold as -40C. Warnings will be likely. By Sunday, we can expect a warming trend, with a high all the way up to -10C (14F). More snow is on the way for Monday and Tuesday.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Extreme cold to last into the new year for Montreal


As year 38 draws to a close for me in the weather business, I want to thank you for reading. Weather has always been a huge part of my life since I started taking daily observations back in 1979. I am truly humbled to be able to share my passion with you. Happy New Year.

Extreme cold covers nearly two-thirds of North America on this New Years Eve, with widespread weather warnings in place from the Prairies to Atlantic Canada and into the deep southern US. Montreal is included in the cold warnings for the 5th consecutive day. On Saturday, we manged a high of -17.6C (1F), the first time in 87 hours Trudeau Airport was above -18C (0F). A new surge of arctic air arrives today, on gusty northwest winds up to 40km/h. We may make it to -19C (-2F) today. Tonight and New Years Day, the windchill will be brutal, approaching -40C. Expect mostly cloudy skies, with frigid conditions, perhaps a few flurries and a low -26C (-15F). We start 2018 cold on Monday, with a high of -22C (-8F), the night may be the coldest yet, with an overnight low of -27C (-17F) in Montreal, and -32C (-26F) in Ottawa. Temperatures will moderate slightly during the mid-week before more arctic air arrives by next Friday. With strong cold high pressure in place over the region, no major storms are on the horizon for southern Quebec.

With temperatures expected to hover near -18C (0F), and windchill values in the minus 30s, numerous outdoor New Years Eve celebrations have had to be cancelled or relocated in many cities. In Ottawa, the concert planned for the main stage to celebrate both the new year and Canada 150 has been cancelled. Organizers felt it was just too dangerous to hold the event in -25C weather. Many Canadians on social media disagree with the decision. Here in Montreal, it is business as usual, with no cancellations at this time in the Old Port of Montreal or other municipalities.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Arctic blast sweeps country

This is quite the cold snap in Montreal, challenging those of January 1957, Dec/Jan 1993-94 and Dec/Jan 1980-81. The coldest temperature ever recorded in Montreal, occurred on January 15, 1957, when the mercury bottomed out at -37.8C (-36F). This outbreak will not be as cold as those mentioned, but it will make up for that with its duration.


Crews continue to battle the bone-chilling cold, while cleaning up from the Christmas Day storm. (ValleyWX)
Frigid air continues to dominate the weather landscape across southern Canada, and into the northern two-thirds of the US. On Thursday, Montreal failed to crack the -20C mark after an icy overnight low of -27C (-17F), the coldest of 2017. At least the good news this morning, is the winds have eased, allowing for windchill values to fall to more manageable levels. At one point on Thursday morning, the windchill was -40C in Montreal. It was brutal outside. Along with the cold came the usual problems, frozen pipes, stalled cars and a slow transit system. Icy surfaces on bridges have caused a number of accidents since Boxing Day. With the cold came an increasing demand for battery boosts. On Wednesday alone, CAA-Quebec responded to nearly 8600 service calls. A fire in Verdun on Thursday was thought to have been started by someone using a blowtorch to thaw frozen pipes. No injuries were reported in the fire on Rusbrooke, but power was cut to 6000 Verdun residents. The six-unit building suffered severe damage, with the Red Cross providing temporary shelter for the occupants.
Someone thawing frozen pipes with a blowtorch may have started this 4-alarm fire in Verdun on Thursday. (CTV News)
The extreme cold warning remains in effect this morning, but temperatures will moderate slightly today, with some cloud cover and flurries forecast into Saturday. The high for Montreal today is expected to be -18C (0F), with an overnight low of -24C (-11F). On Saturday, expect a balmy high of -17C (2F). Any snowfall will result in a trace to 1cm or so through Saturday evening. On Sunday, a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive on gusty northwest winds. Expect the temperature to remain below -20C (-4F) through New Years Eve and into Monday. Looking ahead, temperatures will warm slightly during the middle part of next week, but we may be looking at a significant snowfall on Thursday. The computer models are trying to nail down the track, stay tuned. Behind that system another surge of arctic air will arrive in Montreal to end the work week. January at this time is looking cold and snowy for the duration, sorry folks!

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Dangerous cold from coast to coast to end 2017

Dangerous cold  is forecast, with windchill readings approaching -60C in parts of the country.

Cleaning up on L'Ile Perrot after 15cm of snow on Christmas Day. (ValleyWX Photo)
Another 10-20cm of snow fell across southern Quebec on Christmas Day, bringing the monthly total in Montreal to 60cm (2 feet). But this is nothing compared to the snow that has been piling up around the Great Lakes. In Erie, Pensylvania, from midnight to 6am Tuesday morning, 19 inches (48.2cm) of snow fell on the city. In less than 48 hours, 53 inches (134cm) has fallen and a whopping monthly total of 95.5" (235cm). That is roughly the average for Montreal for the entire season.

Over 134cm (53 inches) of lake effect snow fell on Erie, Pennsylvania in less than 48 hours. (Photo: Erie News Now)
In Montreal, arctic air is pouring into the area this Tuesday afternoon, on gusty northwest winds. At 2pm, Montreal was -13C (9F), with winds in excess of 50km/h and a windchill value of -23C (-9F). Blowing snow was also occurring making for slick highway travel outside the city. If you can believe it, that is likely the warmest temperature Montreal will see through Saturday. Dangerous cold has prompted extreme cold or windchill warnings from Alberta to Atlantic Canada. This morning, Fort Severn, Ontario was the coldest location in Canada at -45C (-49F), with a windchill of -55C (-67F). They are located almost 3800km from the North Pole. In Alberta temperatures hovered around -30C. In Saskatchewan, Val Marie in the deep southern part of the province near the Montana border, was -37C.

The forecast for southern Quebec calls for dry conditions but bitter cold through at least Friday. The overnight lows will range from -24C to -30C (-11F to -22F), with daytime highs struggling to get to -18C (0F). The coldest temperature I have recorded here at my home on L'Ile Perrot since we moved here in 2009, was -28.2C (-19F) on January 8, 2015. We will see if that reading is in jeopardy this week.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

New winter storm to impact Quebec & Ontario for Christmas Day

With another 8 to 10cm of fresh snow falling in Montreal on Saturday, we are guaranteed a white Christmas. More snow, wind and cold is on the way this week, and right into 2018. (ValleyWX Photo)
Another winter storm will take aim at southern Ontario, New York and Quebec, as well as the New England states over the next 24 hours. The storm, currently developing south of the lower Great Lakes, will move across the Ohio Valley and off the Maine Coast by Monday afternoon. The heaviest snow will fall south of the St Lawrence River and into Atlantic Canada.

Snow will spread across southern Ontario on Christmas Eve, with 10 to 15cm expected from Windsor to Kingston. The snow will arrive in Montreal overnight and taper off late Christmas Day. Accumulations in southern Quebec will range from 5 to 10cm north of Montreal, 10 to 15cm in the city and just south of the river, and 25 to 35cm for Sherbrooke, the Eastern Townships, and along the Maine border. Expect more snow in the lee of the Great Lakes, with totals of up to 50cm by Wednesday. Winds will become a factor with this storm, especially as the system strengthens along the Atlantic Coast. Expect widespread blowing snow along the St Lawrence River Valley, with wind gusts up to 50km/h in Montreal, and 70km/h in Quebec City.

Winter Storm Warning
A winter storm warning is in effect for the greater Toronto area, all regions south of the St Lawrence River and the Townships. A blowing snow advisory is in effect for Quebec City. Regardless of whether or not your area is under a warning, travel on all highways Christmas Day will be challenging. This is especially true on both Highway 20 and 40, Highway 401, and Interstates 81, 87, 89, 91 and 93. Travel today if you can or wait until Tuesday. Frigid air will surge into southern Quebec behind the storm with high temperatures only reaching -18C (0F) by Thursday. Lake effect snow will impact western New York and portions of Ontario through the week.

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Freezing rain, snow and arctic cold forecast in Montreal during the holidays

A Christmas day snowstorm is possible for many parts of Eastern Canada and New England. (AccuWeather.com)
Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec.

Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley across New England today. Snow mixed with freezing rain will start shortly in Montreal, lasting until at least midnight. The freezing rain should only be for a few hours in the Montreal metro region, with perhaps 2 to 5mm. More ice is expected southeast off Montreal where up to 10mm is possible locally. Snow will accumulate 5 to 10cm along the St. Lawrence Valley and points north of the region. Temperatures will rise today to around -5C (23F) in Montreal, and this will likely be the warmest temperature we see for the next two weeks.

Sunday will be the best travel day, with sunshine forecast, light winds, and high temperatures around -6C (21F). On Christmas Day, developing low pressure along the Atlantic Coast, will push snow across New England and into extreme southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. The snow will fall most of the day, with 10 to 15cm possible. Behind the storm, arctic air, the coldest in several years, will pour into southern Quebec. Daytime highs by Wednesday will struggle to reach -18C (0F), with overnight lows between -26 and -30C (-15 to -22F) in many parts of southern Quebec.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Winter Solstice arrives with cold, snow and ice in the forecast for Montreal

Traffic in Montreal has been brutal this week, with long commute times, numerous accidents and several road closures. More snowy weather is expected on Friday, with and increasing threat for freezing rain Saturday. (ValleyWX)
Winter officially arrived at 11:28AM Thursday morning in Montreal. Today we are being treated to the least amount of daylight all year long, with only 8 hours and 42 minutes. The good news is that we will enjoy bright sunshine all day. Additionally the amount of daylight will slowly increase as we move forward towards spring and summer. The bad news is, temperatures are cold, and we have lots of winter weather ahead of us over the next few months, starting with the near-term forecast.

Difficult travel conditions expected
Thursday will be sunny and cold, with temperatures hovering around -10C (14F). Overnight, clouds will thicken up in response to a very slow moving warm front and developing low pressure system moving east form the Great Lakes. The temperature will slowly warm up as well into Friday adding to what may be a difficult forecast. On Friday snow will develop by mid-morning in southern Quebec and continue into the evening hours. At this time, Montreal can expect 5 to 10cm through midnight, with more expected south of the city. As the low pressure moves down the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday, more precipitation will develop. The temperature will warm Saturday and will be critical in determining the type of precipitation we receive. The precipitation will re-develop on Saturday, as snow mixed with freezing rain. Amounts may be significant and warnings will likely be needed for a portion of the region. Travel will be impacted across Ontario and Quebec as well as New England and the Northeast US. This is a very busy travel period, so listen carefully to future forecasts and updated warnings. Sunday is expected to be the best travel day, with clearing skies and cold temperatures.

On Christmas Day, yet another low pressure area is expected to move along the east coast. Depending which forecast model you prefer, we are either in for a snowstorm or just a few flurries. One thing is certain, the weather will turn frigid next week through the final weekend of 2017.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Unsettled holiday forecast for southern Quebec

A frozen landscape as sea smoke rises off the St. Lawrence River in Vaudreuil Dorion Sunday morning. The air temperature at the time was -21C (-6F). Milder weather will arrive for a short period this week, before arctic air returns for the holidays. (ValleyWeather Photo)
This will be a busy travel week for many as the Christmas holiday rapidly approaches. Unfortunately, the weather is not going to cooperate with several systems expected to impact the region, along with some dramatic temperature swings. Arctic air is starting to move back into western Canada. This airmass is expected to dive into the deep southern US this week, while at the same time warm air surges north along the eastern seaboard. In between the duelling air masses will be the storm track.

Freezing Rain Possible
A warm front is expected to lift north into our region Monday, with light snow and some freezing rain possible into Tuesday. Accumulations will be light with up to 5cm of snow and perhaps a few millimetres of ice here in Montreal. Eventually the warm air will win out on Tuesday, with the mercury edging above the freezing point to 3C (38F). This warmth will be short-lived, with a sharp cold front arriving on Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop into the lower minus teens by Thursday morning, and remain there into Friday. On Friday, the weather will become quite active once again, with a strong storm developing in western Canada and moving towards Colorado, before moving across the Great Lakes. Several scenarios are in play here, with the exact storm track determining the type and quantity of precipitation. This will not be an easy forecast, but right now we are looking at snow Friday, changing to freezing rain late in the day and perhaps to rain Saturday. The entire mess will freeze up on Christmas Eve day as the arctic air surges back into southern Quebec. To say the least, this type of weather will greatly impact travel across Ontario, Quebec and New England. If you have any travel plans, pay close attention to future forecasts and any warnings as the week progresses.

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Frigid cold settles into Montreal behind the snow

The clean-up from the first snowstorm of the season started in most municipalities last night. The crew shown above was removing snow in Pointe Claire this morning. (ValleyWX)
The first snowstorm of the season for Montreal and southern Quebec is in the record books. The metro region received 20 to 25cm (8 to 10 inches) of snow along with gusty winds up to 60km/h. As the snow tapered off on Wednesday, the wind and cold took over, with snow drifting across area highways. The temperature fell to -19C (-2F) this morning and has been rather slow to rise to the current reading of -15C (5F) at 2pm. Windchill readings have been in the lower -20s all day.

It was a long, difficult day for most commuters on Tuesday. Heavy snow, a lack of plowing, and not enough snow tires, created long delays on Montreal roads. (CBC)
The storm resulted in a snarling commute on both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, as motorists struggled to adjust to the highly changeable road conditions. Numerous major accidents were reported across the southwest portion of the province. Highway 20 near Coteau-du-Lac was closed for a period early Tuesday due to accidents and cars in the ditch. Skies cleared on Thursday, but it remained frigid. The cold air will persist through the weekend, before moderating slightly next week. A few weak weather systems will bring some light snow late Friday and again Sunday night into Monday. Up to 10cm may be added to the current snow on the ground by Monday evening. Mild air will briefly move into the region next Tuesday, with a high near 0C (32F) forecast. The milder weather will be short-lived, with more cold air and snow arriving late next week. It looks like a cold and snowy holiday period across southern Quebec at this time.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

First snowstorm snarls Montreal traffic - 20cm forecast

It was a slow morning commute in Montreal, as the first snowstorm of the year impacted southern Quebec. (ValleyWeather)
Snowfall warnings remain in effect for southern Quebec today. Expect 15 to 20cm for Montreal, with up to 30cm in Quebec City. Winds will increase today up to 60km/h, backing to the northwest tonight and increasing to 70km/h. Widespread blowing snow will be a problem.

Another winter, same old story in Montreal. For some reason many motorists and several municipalities seemed caught off guard by the morning snow. Despite predictions for this storm days ago, it was a two hour plus morning commute for many. Lack of plowing and salting on Montreal hills and highways, combined with an absence of snow tires on many cars, slowed traffic to a crawl. The evening drive will be just a challenging. The deadline to have your winter tires installed is this Friday, December 15. By next season, the date will be moved froward to December 1st, much better for all of us.

Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley across central New England today while strengthening. Snow started in Montreal at around 4am, with close to 10cm on the ground as of 10am. Temperatures are cold and will remain that way into this weekend. The high today may reach -5C, but will drop tonight down to -12C and remain there on Wednesday.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Arctic air - measurable snow on the way for Montreal

There is more snow this morning in Texas than in Montreal. Heavy wet snow fell in places across the deep south Thursday night, including at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, the home of Texas A&M. College Station is located about 150km northwest of Houston, where light snow also fell. (Photo via Twitter @AggieFootball)
There is more snow in south Texas this morning than in southern Quebec. That being said, arctic cold and snow are on the immediate horizon for Montreal. Friday morning, the first cold front stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic Canada. Along it snow is falling, in places where is should not be. Winter storm warnings stretch from the Mexican border into North Carolina. Further north, the cold air is sweeping across the wide open and considerably warmer Great Lakes. The result is heavy lake effect snows in several regions. Some of the narrow lake bands are moving northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley, affecting the 401 corridor from Kingston to Cornwall. A few of the snow showers have even made it into southern Quebec, with a fluffy centimetre or two falling last night on L'Ile Perrot. More snow showers are possible later today in Montreal.

On Saturday, low pressure will move up the east coast, producing a swath of 10 to 15cm snowfall from interior New England towards the Gaspe Peninsula. At the same time, a clipper system will also approach Montreal from the west, with a light snowfall Saturday night, followed by much colder air. Next week will future several opportunities for light snowfall, along with very cold temperatures. Daytime highs on Sunday will be around -2C (29F). By Tuesday through Friday, the high will only be around -10C (14F) in Montreal. Several systems will also produce light snow next week. The timing and amounts will need to be fined tuned, but a good 10 to 15cm of snow could be on the ground by next Friday. Winter has arrived!

Wednesday, December 06, 2017

The Halifax Explosion 100th Annivesary


Thursday, December 6, 1917, 9:04:35 AST
Halifax was booming in 1917, an extremely busy port city of 50,000. Ship traffic was heavy, especially due to the outbreak of World War I. Then, just past 9:04am on December 6, 1917, disaster struck. Read more about it HERE

Monday, December 04, 2017

Major pattern change on the way for eastern Canada

The pattern of alternating warm and cold weather that has been around most of this fall, will come to an end this week. An arctic front will bring in much colder air, that is expected to remain in Ontario and Quebec through December. (AccuWeather.com)
11:45 UPDATE: Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for western New York counties for Lake Effect snow by Wednesday.

Environment Canada has issued a wind warning for the Richelieu Valley for late tonight and early Tuesday. Expect south winds gusting up to 90km/h.

The mild weather is about to come to an end, and won't likely return until May. No, but seriously, Arctic air is set to invade the Great Lakes over the next 48 hours, sliding into eastern Canada by the weekend. The catalyst will be a major winter storm developing over Colorado, and moving northward toward Lake Superior. Montreal, southern Ontario and Quebec will be on the warm side of the system, with a surge of mild air through Wednesday. Closer to the center of the storm, heavy rain is forecast from Michigan into central Ontario. West of the storm track, blizzard conditions are expected from the Dakotas into extreme southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Forecasters are calling for 30 to 40cm of wind driven snow in some regions, along with dropping temperatures. Travel is not advised tonight and Tuesday across portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota and northwest Ontario.

In Montreal, sunshine on Monday will fade away as clouds increase. Tuesday will be cloudy and very mild, with high temperatures soaring to 9C (48F). Winds will increase tonight, becoming quite strong in the afternoon, gusting up to 60km/h. A cold front, the leading edge of the arctic air, will sweep across the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with gusty winds, rain and dropping temperatures. The balance of the week will be much colder, with the chance of flurries through Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to become increasingly colder as we head into the weekend. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 0C (32F) by Friday. At this time, it looks like the balance of the month will remain below freezing in southern Quebec, with frequent chances for accumulating snow. Next week, daytime high temperatures will be no better than -3C (27F). The details will become clearer as time moves along, but expect much colder weather starting late this week.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Enjoy the mild weather, winter set to return

Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray, shown above, along with his teammates, the Calgary Stampeders and fans, battled steady snow Sunday night during the 105th Grey Cup in Ottawa. (TSN)
Despite the quick 5cm of snow that fell on the 105th Grey Cup Sunday in Ottawa, and across southern Quebec, it has been a mild week once again. In keeping with the last blog entry, the temperature roller coaster ride continues. There was no better example of this than the snow and biting cold Sunday and early Monday, followed by windy and warm weather Tuesday. On Tuesday, Toronto reached 17.1C (63F), Ottawa 11C (52F), remarkably after an early morning low of -13.7C (8F), and Montreal 6C (43F), after a low of -11.7C (10F). A series of weak weather systems will keep the temperature bouncing around through the first week of December. Expect the weather to remain fairly mundane in Montreal, with more clouds than sun and temperatures well above normal.

Cold weather is forecast to return to eastern Canada by December 10th. (AccuWeather)
Cold Weather Returns
There are strong indications that we will see a major pattern change by December 10th or so. Expect much colder air to return, and last through Christmas, along with frequent opportunities for measurable snow. The jet stream is expected to become more amplified, allowing storms to move slower, gain strength and gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. The exact details are hard to pinpoint at this time, but temperatures will return to normal levels and eventually below normal in Montreal. This would put daytime highs well below freezing. There is a good chance of a snowstorm around the 11th of December and again near Christmas. The cold weather is expected to stay with us right through the end of December.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Weather whiplash in southern Quebec

The first snow of the season in Vaudreuil last weekend, did not last long, as warm air returned by mid-week. (ValleyWX)
After a record breaking warm October in Ontario and Quebec, November is proving to be anything but certain. If you are not sure which jacket to grab in the morning, you are not alone. The change in temperature from day to day is enough to give you whiplash. With a predominate west to east "zonal" flow in place across Canada, weather systems have been moving rather quickly, producing highly variable weather. On Sunday, November 19, Montreal recorded the first measurable snowfall of the season, with anywhere from 2-5cm falling. Monday was windy and bitter cold, with snow flurries and temperatures at -6C (21F), windchill values were as cold as -18C (0F) However, just 24 hours later the temperature was 8C (48F), with bright sunshine. This pretty much describes the month we have had in Montreal, from mid-winter cold, to near record-breaking warmth and back again, at times in just a few hours.

That brings us to this weekend, where pretty much the same pattern is in place. The current weather is being produced by a potent cold front slipping across the St. Lawrence Valley. A steady rain in Montreal, will slowly taper to a few flurries tonight. Gusty west winds will increase up to 50km/h this evening. Temperatures in southern Quebec today are in the 5 to 10C (40 to 50F) range. Behind the front, cold air will surge into the region, with lows down to -4C (26F) by Sunday morning. Sunday will be windy and cold, with flurries and temperatures remaining steady. Yet another clipper system will arrive late Sunday into Monday, with some light snow and chilly temperatures. However, the cold will not last long. By Tuesday, more mild air will surge into the region, with temperatures well above normal expected for most of the upcoming week. As long as this flat, zonal pattern remains in place, the arctic air will remain trapped across the far north, with any storm systems being rather weak and moisture starved. I expect a change by the second week of December.

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Freezing rain warning for southern Quebec

Freezing rain warnings are in place for southern Quebec this afternoon and tonight.
Strengthening low pressure will rapidly move from the central plains into the Great Lakes tonight, and down the St. Lawrence Valley on Sunday. Waves of precipitation are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours from southern Ontario into Quebec. Along the path of the storm, mixed precipitation is forecast. North and west of the system, snow will be the dominate precipitation, with as much as 25cm expected in the Laurentians and upper Ottawa Valley. South of the track towards the US border and in the Townships, look for mostly rain.

Freezing Rain Warning
Environment Canada has a wide range of warnings in effect for this afternoon and especially overnight. In Montreal, a freezing rain warning has been posted. A mix of snow and rain this afternoon, will transition to rain tonight as the temperature rises from -2C (28F) up to 4C (39F) by morning. Expect between 2-4mm of ice in Montreal. North of the city and in Ottawa, the freezing rain will last longer, with as much as 15mm possible. In Ottawa, the rain will change back to snow overnight, with as much as 10cm before it ends on Sunday. As the storm moves east of Montreal on Sunday, a strong cold front will sweep the region. Cold air will surge back into Ontario and southern Quebec, with any mixed precipitation changing back to all snow and ending in the afternoon. A couple of centimeters of snow are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday. Temperatures will fall back below freezing by noon on Sunday. Strong winds will also develop on Sunday, gusting up to 60km/h across the entire area. Travel will be highly variable and quite dangerous at times this weekend. Expect icy patches in the city. North and west of Montreal, conditions will quickly deteriorate, with lowering visibility and snow covered roads. The weather will improve on Monday.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Strong weekend storm to bring rain and snow to Quebec

Cold air will follow the weekend storm into eastern Canada and the US. Expect temperatures to be well below normal, along with lake effect snow and snowshowers. (AccuWeather.com)
A strong fall storm is forecast to develop over the Midwest US on Friday, moving across the Great Lakes and eventually down the St. Lawrence Valley this weekend. The strengthening storm is expected to bring a messy mix of rain and snow to eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Precipitation is expected to start Saturday in Montreal, in the form of wet snow, likely mixing with and changing to rain in the city. A heavy wet snow mixed at times with freezing rain is forecast at this time north of Montreal into the lower Laurentians, as well as in the Ottawa Valley.

As much as 20cm of snow is possible north of Montreal. At this time, the forecast track of the storm is not set in stone. A change of a few kilometres will mean the difference between snow or rain for several locations. Temperatures will be cold on Friday in Montreal, warming slightly Saturday to above freezing, before cooling off Sunday. Strong winds and dropping temperatures are expected in the wake of the storm on Sunday. Winds are expected to be above 50km/h Sunday. The temperature will remain below normal next week along with the chance for some light snow or flurries.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Record cold weekend - can the snow be far behind

The first cold air of the season blasted into southern Quebec last weekend. Some locations in Quebec and Ontario recorded their first measurable snow as well. Montreal only had a trace, but more is on the way, soon.  
Temperatures across southern Quebec are slowly moderating to start the work week, after record cold Friday and Saturday. Friday was an absolute shock to the system, as a record low temperature of -8.9C (16F) in Montreal, combined with howling winds over 50km/h, to produce mid-January like windchill values. After the warm fall we have had, it was a wake up call. More cold occurred Saturday, with a record low of -9.7C (14.5F), the old record low was -8.3C (17F) set in 1973. Those temperatures were at Trudeau Airport on the island, it was much colder in the suburbs. On Saturday, the mercury remained below freezing all day with a high of -1.3C. Thankfully the wind slowly diminished for Remembrance Day services. Some snow accompanied the cold air, with a trace to 1cm in Montreal. There were some icy spots on Friday, but roads were mostly clear in the city. The cold and threat of snow had motorists scrambling to get their winter tires on. The deadline in Quebec is December 15, but that is laughable at best. Trust me when I tell you, we will have significant snow before then, guaranteed.

Saturday was beautiful, but cold. The chilly St Lawrence Seaway looking south into New York State at  Johnstown, Ontario. (ValleyWX)
First Measurable Snow
With the arrival of the first arctic air of the season, and the ground now partially frozen, the first measurable snow can't be too far behind. A clipper-type low will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday, with a light rain and snow mix. Any accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations and points north of Montreal. Behind this weak system, cooler air will filter back into the region for Friday. By next weekend, a much stronger storm will approach from the southwest, once again look for a mix changing to a cold rain in Montreal. This storm has the potential to produce measurable snow in some locations, along with gusty winds. By Sunday, cooler air returns, with any precipitation changing back to flurries. At this time, next week looks colder than normal, with the chance for more snow by mid-week.

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

First arctic blast of the season for southern Quebec

A strong arctic cold front will precede the coldest air of the season in southern Quebec. Some light snow and a rapid freeze is expected late Thursday night in Montreal. (AccuWeather.com)
The first shot of polar air this fall season is forecast to invade southern Quebec late Thursday and Friday. Expect gusty winds, some snow and ice and a hard freeze by Friday morning. Arctic air has taken up residence in western Canada, with temperatures in the minus teens. A portion of the same airmass will arrive behind a potent cold front late Thursday. The front should cross southern Quebec shortly after midnight early Friday morning. Temperatures will rise to around 8C (48F) on Thursday, along with an increase in clouds. 

Frigid Friday
The arctic boundary that will cross the Great Lakes and southern Quebec late Thursday, will be accompanied by gusty winds and periods of rain changing to our first snow of the season. In Montreal a dusting to 1cm may fall, along with plummeting temperatures. Some higher elevations of Quebec and New England can expect as much as 5cm. Locations near the Great Lakes and across northwest Quebec may receive even heavier amounts. By Friday morning, the temperature in the city will be at a bone-chilling -11C (12F). This will come as quite the shock to the system after the extremely warm fall we have experienced. Friday will be windy and frigid, with high temperatures no better than -5C (23F). Gusty winds in excess of 50km/h will produce windchill readings near -18C (0F). Temperatures will moderate closer to normal levels as we head into the weekend. Saturday looks sunny at this time, with perhaps a few flurries or showers on Sunday. The average high/low for this time of year in Montreal should be plus 7C (45F) and -1C (30F) respectively.

Friday, November 03, 2017

Canada’s new weather supercomputers will improve forecasts and warnings

I had the absolute privilege of meeting the current President of the World Meteorological Organization and Assistant Deputy Minister for the Meteorological Service of Canada, David Grimes, in Dorval on Thursday. (Photo: Robert Frank)
Canada has moved to the forefront of weather computer modeling with the delivery of two High Performance Computers (HPC) from Shared Services Canada (SSC) and IBM. These high-performance computers were officially dedicated at a service at the Canadian Meteorological Centre in Dorval on Thursday, November 2. Minister of Public Service and Procurement, Carla Qualtrough was on hand for the unveiling. But, as a weather nerd, it was Assistant Deputy Minister for the Meteorological Service of Canada and current President of the World Meteorological Organization, David Grimes, who caught my attention. It was an absolute honour to talk to him about the new computers and weather in general. A video presentation of last weekend’s intense storm, as displayed by the new supercomputer modeling output, was beyond impressive. According to Grimes, these computers will make Canada, “one of the best modeling centers in the world”. “Our early-warning system has been greatly enhanced,” he added. The new HPC solution is the fastest recorded computer platform within the Government of Canada, and among the fastest in the world. 

The super computers will allow for complex weather programs and models, involving over 10 billion data points, to be processed much quicker. The end result for Canadians will be more accurate and timely forecasts and warnings. What was exciting for me to discover was that my Davis Vantage Vu weather station, in my backyard on L’Ile Perrot, is likely one of those data points. Information is pumped into these computers from all around the country and the world. Weather knows no boundaries. If you are processing weather data and uploading it to the web, it will likely be used in one calculation or another.

Computer weather modeling has become crucial in recent years.  It allows forecasters to input current weather data, along with additional information, variables and parameters, to basically map out how weather systems will move in both the short and long-term. According to Grimes, a typical model run can take around seven hours, but that will gradually be reduced over the next decade, down to almost real time within ten years.

The HPC is five times faster than the old Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) computers, processing data at an astonishing 2.444 trillion calculations per second. The HPC is primarily for ECCC weather predictions, but additional organizations will also benefit from this resource. Health Canada for air quality alerts, Fisheries and Oceans Canada to support ocean modeling and Public Safety Canada to support environmental emergency prevention – just to name a few. Today’s new supercomputers are 70 million times faster than Environment Canada’s first supercomputer purchased in 1974.


The new ECCC supercomputers were dedicated to; Kenneth Hare above, and Harriet Brooks below.
(ECCC Photo)
The new supercomputers were named for two late distinguished Canadian scientists: Harriet Brooks, Canada’s first female nuclear physicist, who worked with Marie Curie and contributed to research on radon gas, and Kenneth Hare, Canadian environmental science advocate, who warned about carbon-driven climate change long before many others were paying attention.