Colder weather with a snowflake or two by weeks end

A warmer and windy Monday is on tap for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley as a warm front slowly lifts from southern Ontario into southern Quebec today. We start the day on the cold side at 2C (36F) here on L'Ile Perrot. There was even some spotty frost overnight. As the front comes north freezing drizzle is being reported in the Adirondacks of New York, certainly a sign of things to come.

The warm front comes into Montreal mid morning, with clouds rapidly increase along with showers. Gusty southwest winds are also likely later today. Tonight a cold front will bring more showers along with much colder air. After a high of 15C (60F) today, perhaps our last warm day for some time, lows will drop to 10C (50F) tonight. On Tuesday temperatures will remain steady or even fall a degree or two. The balance of the week looks unsettled with showers and perhaps snow flurries, windy and much colder with lows near freezing and high around 7C (45F).

Partial clearing for a partial lunar eclipse

It has been slowly cooling down this week with temperatures finally acting like October. Add to that about 17mm of rain in the last day or so and it actually feels like fall. It appears at least for the short term that we have turned the corner with much cooler weather now expected into next week. As a matter of fact looking ahead into early November it looks like much below normal temperatures with perhaps some snowflakes by Halloween, but that is way out there. To start with this morning, we have rain ending followed by partial clearing here in Montreal and across the St. Lawrence Valley. That should allow us to view the partial lunar eclipse of the full Hunter moon this evening. The eclipse will peak around 7:50 ET and last several hours. It will only be partial but still worth a peek. Temperatures today will remain where they are currently around 11 or 12C, dropping to 9C tonight.

What to expect tonight as the full Hunter moon, earth and sun get tangled in each others path, at least partially.

Looking ahead into the weekend more showers should develop by Saturday afternoon as low pressure arrives from the Great Lakes. The showers and cooler weather will start Sunday and last well into next week. Highs this weekend will be in the 12 to 15C range with lows of 7 to 9C, By early next week high temperatures will struggle to reach 8 or 9C.

Colder weather on the horizon for Montreal

A ghostly reminder that despite the warm sunshine this weekend, it is October and the days are getting shorter and cooler. Halloween is just around the corner followed by you know what! (ValleyWX)

Most of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec have been enjoying a near perfect fall weather with abundant sunshine and many days of above normal temperatures. This past holiday weekend felt more like late August than October. Highs were in the low 20's with very warm nights in the teens. A front crossed the region on Monday with some light showers, just a few millimetres of rain on L'Ile Perrot and with no apparent change in temperatures. This morning it is still mild at 12C with lots of fog around. A dense fog advisory is in effect for most of northern New York and Vermont with visibility under 1 mile (1.6km). If you are heading off island to the south of Montreal be aware of this fog, which should burn off by 10am or so. Otherwise look for one more sunny warm day before changes begin. A major pattern change is anticipated between now and months end with much cooler and wet weather on the way. The showers will arrive on Wednesday and be with us for the remainder of the week. The cooler air will arrive be the weekend.

Forecast models are hinting at a very cold end to October and start to November for most of the country. Snow is even possible across the Prairies with a hint of some snowflakes by the 10th of November here in the east. Time will tell, until then enjoy the weather and get your winter plans firmed up. My snow tires go on as always next week.

Perfect Thanksgiving Weekend for Montreal

More incredible fall weather is forecast for Montreal and southern Quebec heading into the upcoming holiday weekend. It is chilly to start this morning, 5C (41F) here on L'Ile Perrot, but the sunshine will warm temperatures to well above normal highs of 20C. That sunshine will be with us right into the weekend as strong high pressure remains anchored over Quebec. Along with the sun will be well above normal highs of 19 to 21C.

Coastal flooding affected portions of Virginia and North Carolina on Wednesday, including the above picture from Norfolk. (The Virginia-Pilot)

A nasty coastal storm is affecting portions of the Carolina's north towards southern New England. Strong winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain is forecast from New York to Norfolk. Yesterday nearly a foot of rain fell on Hatteras Island, North Carolina. Along with the freshwater flooding, high surf  and ocean overwash occurred along Highway 12 and flooded parts of the Island. Winds gusting to 50mph caused sporadic power outages from Maryland to North Carolina. That system will not affect southern Quebec with the exception of a gusty northeast wind later Friday.

Strong winds disrupt power in Montreal

High winds toppled power lines and trees in southern Quebec on Monday.
 (CBC News)

Strong winds helped push temperatures soar to 24C (76F) in Montreal on Monday with even some low 80's creeping into the border areas with Vermont and New York. The front also brought some potent showers and thunderstorms along with strong and gusty winds. Winds were in the 70-90km/h range most of the day and have since lowered to 20-40km/h this morning. The wind took out some trees and power lines, especially south of Montreal. Hydro Quebec is reporting about 7000 customer still without power across the province this morning down from around 32,000 on Monday evening. Power outages were also reported across northern New England and eastern Ontario. As the front passed through Montreal at 3pm, around 15mm of rain fell on the city. Unfortunately it occurred during the evening commute making it a slow and difficult one. Other regions of southern Quebec had as much as 25-30mm of rain along the frontal passage. Temperatures dropped rapidly behind the front from 24C (76F) down to 16C (60F) in a matter of minutes. This morning L'Ile Perrot is a chilly 6C (43F) with Ottawa down to 3C (38F).

A spectacular double rainbow appeared behind the cold front late Monday afternoon, visible across most of the island of Montreal. (ValleyWX Photo)

The good news is that our tremendous stretch of fall weather will continue with nothing but sunshine and warming temperatures right into the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday weekend. For the record Montreal has had rain on only four of the last 21 days, remarkable at anytime of the year but especially during typically wet fall.

Finally some moisture for Montreal - incredible South Dakota snow

Streets in Rapid City, South Dakota clogged with snow. (CNN)

Rain finally moved into Montreal this afternoon, 14 days after the last measurable precipitation. Around 7mm fell on L'Ile Perrot, it has since ended with the showers moving off to the northeast as a warm front crossed the region. Temperatures will rise to 23C by midday Monday, well above the normal October 7 high of 14C. The afternoon will feature a strong cold front trailing from the same system the brought South Dakota its massive snowstorm Friday. This front will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in southern Quebec, along with winds gusting to 70km/h in the afternoon. Rainfall along the front could be significant with up to 40mm possible in some locations. Temperatures will cool to 7C Monday night behind the front. Tuesday will be windy and cooler with highs near 15C.

Several tornadoes including this one in Nebraska, occurred on the warm side of the storm.

SOUTH DAKOTA BLIZZARD
Friday's snowstorm across the plains of South Dakota and Wyoming was legendary with several snow rerecords being smashed. The Black Hills received as much as 50 inches of heavy wet snow accompanied by 70 mph winds. The storm was big by any standards but especially for October. Drifts piled up the sides of many buildings while trees and power lines were down across the region. Highways were jammed with stranded motorists, several had to be rescued by snowmobile. The snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning in Rapid City and Lead. Meanwhile on the warm side of the system, strong thunderstorms and tornadoes raced across Nebraska with an F-4 tornado reported in Wayne. Damage was extensive across the region. Flooding is now a concern in South Dakota as the record snowfall begins to melt.

Tropical Storm Karen heads for Florida - Blizzard in Dakotas

Tropical storm Karen (lower center of image) and a blizzard (upper left) on the map at the same time. You have to love October. 

Two very distinct weather features are on this mornings map, a blizzard over the Dakotas and a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico all at the same time. Both will have an impact on our weather by Monday, finally bringing an end to this stretch of incredible sunshine and warmth. We managed another sunny day on Thursday with temperatures in the low 20's. Today clouds and a few sprinkles along a very weak cold front this morning, but otherwise partly cloudy, mild and dry through Saturday.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Karen has prompted warnings for the central Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida this morning with the center about 300 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum winds are at 60mph and some strengthening is possible before landfall late Saturday, likely in the Florida panhandle. Karen will produce a 3-5 foot storm surge along with 4 to 8 inches or rain. This system will then move inland towards the Carolina's and become absorbed by a larger storm that is affecting the northern plains and Rockies this morning. A record breaking snowstorm is forecast for the Black Hills of South Dakota with one to two feet of snow and 40-70mph winds possible over the next 24 hours. It is already down to 32F and snowing at the Black Hills Airport near Sturgis this morning.

This large upper level low will spin into the Great Lakes by Sunday, tapping into the Gulf moisture from Karen and bringing an end to our dry weather. Rainfall amounts could be modest Sunday and Monday here in Montreal and across Eastern Ontario into northern New England. There could even be some thunderstorms. Temperatures will however remain mild into next week for Montreal
.

Big snowstorm for western Plains - warm in the east

A potent low pressure area will develop today across the northern Rockies and swing into the central plains tonight. This system has already produced 3-7cm of wet snow over portions of southwest Alberta into northwest Montana. The storm will ramp up later today and tonight with rain changing to heavy wet snow across the Black Hills of South Dakota west into Wyoming as well as portions of North Dakota. Forecasters expect 12-24 inches (30-60cm) of wet snow by the end of Friday with strong northerly winds producing blowing and drifting snow. Power lines and trees will be subject to the heavy weight of the snow as well as the wind.

The storm will lift into the western Great Lakes by the weekend with a chance of some snow over northwest Ontario. Meanwhile here in southern Quebec and Ontario, today is day 11 of sunshine and above normal temperatures. We hit 25C (77F) in Montreal on Wednesday, and should do 22C today. Some showers are likely by late Friday into Saturday. Wet weather can also be expected to start next week, but it will remain warm for October.

We should have the development of tropical storm Karen at some point today. The National Hurricane Center is giving an area of disturbed weather and thunderstorms near the Yucatan an 80 per cent chance of development. Karen will then threaten the Yucatan as she moves into the southern Gulf. All interest along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system today and into the weekend.

Active Northern Lights - spectacular fall weather

This incredible photo of the Northern Lights was taken by an observer on top of Mount Washington last evening. It was posted to their Facebook page, you can purchase your own copy and support the Observatory HERE.

What more can you say about this weather, simply spectacular for this time of year. Today is the 10th consecutive sunny day with no precipitation in Montreal, a feat difficult at anytime of the year, let alone late September into October. It appears today will be the warmest day of them all, with strong southwest winds up to 50km/h ahead of a weak cold front. Temperatures will match or exceed the high of 24C recorded on Tuesday. That is a full 8 degrees above normal. Today we are already at 16C, usually the normal high for today's date. There is an end in sight, but not a drastic one. A frontal system will bring showers and slightly cooler weather into the weekend.

Big changes are expected in the west where a deep dip in the jet stream will allow cold air to plummet into the Rockies and western Great Plains. Winter Storm Watches may be hoisted for the Black Hills of South Dakota into Wyoming by late Thursday. Strong winds and snow are forecast on the west side of a developing storm, while severe weather is likely across Missouri and Illinois. This system will bring rain and cooler weather into Ontario and Quebec by next week.

NORTHERN LIGHTS
Last night the Aurora Boriealis or northern lights were quite active across a wide region from the Prairies across the far north and into Quebec and northern New England. Sadly I slept through them after two 12 hour workdays, I think we also had a little cloud cover overnight. I have posted a spectacular picture taken from the top of Mount Washington in central New Hampshire last night. I invite you to click on the link on the right side of my blog and explore the observatory atop the mountain. I have been a member for three years now, every penny worth it when you see the research and spectacular photos and observations taken form this unique weatherscape. I have visited once, and plan a return trip next year, perhaps for a longer stay to volunteer, one never knows.

More sunny & warm fall weather

As September slips into October, the weather remains absolutely perfect for Montreal and southern Quebec. A stubborn ridge of high pressure has provided us so far with 8 consecutive days of sunny, warm weather with highs over the weekend in the mid 20's. We have not had any precipitation since last Sunday and we will not see any before next Saturday. This morning a dissipating cold front is producing some showers across central and southern Ontario. This front will continue to weaken as it moves into Quebec with just clouds expected late today and this evening. Otherwise look for good weather through Friday with high temperatures in the middle 20's and lows either side of 10C. These are well above the normal high/low of 16/6C for Montreal.

BC STORM
Over the weekend a strong Pacific storm moved onto Vancouver Island affecting the entire south coast and portions of neighboring Washington State with 100km/h winds and 50-100mm (2-4 inches) of rainfall. Trees were knocked down, power was out to thousands of BC Hydro clients and flooding was reported.

Strong winds and flooding occurred this weekend along BC's south coast. 
(CBC News)

Perfect September Weekend for Montreal

The entire region continues to benefit from high pressure stuck over Quebec. Light winds and clear skies have allowed for cool nights but warm days. A few periods of cloud cover have occurred in Montreal, as is typical in the fall, but no precipitation has been recorded. One of those periods is occurring this morning as a low deck of stratus cloud cover crosses the region. This will move out soon with nothing but sunshine through the weekend. Temperatures will be well above normal during the day from 20 to 23C (70-75F) and cool, near normal nights at around 5C (41F). Some fog may also develop after midnight as the air becomes quite moist in the longer overnight hours. A few clouds may occur Sunday night along a weakening cold front, but otherwise look for more sunshine and well above normal temperatures through next week. A coastal storm will remain to our east with no weather from it here in the St. Lawrence Valley.

While it remains dry here in Montreal, there is some weather out there. A Pacific storm dumped heavy snow across the Rockies and coastal mountains this week. The photo above, from The Weather Channel, is deep snow at Crater Lake Lodge in Oregon. More snow is forecast this weekend. Soggy, stormy weather will occur from B.C. into Saskatchewan.

With very tranquil weather in Montreal to close out September we have to look elsewhere for storminess. A large and strong Pacific storm will slam into south coastal British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Early estimates for rainfall are in the 60-120mm range with 60-80km/h winds. There will also be more snowfall at the highest elevations.

Enjoy this autumn gift

There are only three months until Christmas Day! Now that I have your attention, think about it, today will be sunny and nearly 21C (70F). Now think about the incredible transition the weather will go through over the next three months and along with it our bodies, pets, homes, cars etc and you get the picture. All that to say enjoy the next several days a we really get a gift from God and mother nature. With low pressure stuck off the Atlantic Canada coast, high pressure is very slowly drifting across Ontario and Quebec this week. The nights will be cool with lots of dew and even frost away from the metro areas and bodies of water. But the days will be spectacular, just a few clouds and warm temperatures, well above normal into the 20's right through the weekend. The weather will provide exceptional viewing of the fall colors that are starting to burst across the region, especially the higher elevations south of Montreal.

From The Weather Channel, the white peaks of the Big Sky Country in Montana. Snow fell already during the past week as the seasons begin the change. Enjoy the sunshine and warmth of this week in Montreal.

There are signs of the change of seasons, many trees are sporting color now, and we are stating to see lots of flocks of Canadian geese heading south over L'Ile Perrot, a stopping spot on there trek south to the Carolina's and points beyond. Another sign that we have a change in the seasons underway is coming from the Rockies northwest into Alaska where some snow has already fallen.

Cody the Stormchaser
One of my friends & colleagues from my days at the Kemptville Advance has a great blog called The Accidental Farmwife. This week she writes about two subjects near and dear to my heart, dogs and weather. I know it all too well just how reliable dogs are at predicting thunderstorms, her Cody and my Bella, little furry barometers. Have a read HERE

Fall arrives with a spectacular forecast for Montreal

Leaves have been falling off the oak trees since the middle of August. But as if they knew, the maples with their vivid reds, were waiting for the first day of fall to explode with color here on the West Island of Montreal. (ValleyWX)

Fall is officially here despite my best efforts to keep summer around a little longer. It is a very cool morning across the area with Ottawa down to 2C (36F) and L'Ile Perrot at 5C (41F). Look for nothing but sunshine today and for the balance of the week as high pressure slowly settles into Quebec. Temperatures will start out below normal with a forecast high of only 13C (55F) for Montreal today. Temperatures will drop to near 3C (39F) tonight but warm up to 18C (65F) Tuesday. By the end of the week we should see highs near 21C (70F). The next threat for any rain will not arrive before next Sunday at the earliest. That is is, a very simple forecast. I was reading the forecast discussion out of the National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont and they pretty much echoed the same, nothing to see here folks, sunshine all week.

Rainy weekend for Montreal

Like this entire week, it will be a near perfect Friday as summer 2013 draws to a close. Sunshine and warm southwest breeze will allow temperatures to rise to 27C (80F) in Montreal. We welcome Autumn at 4:44 pm on Sunday afternoon. The forecast this weekend is not looking so good as an area of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms slowly move across the St. Lawrence Valley from midday Saturday through Sunday. As much as 25mm (1 inch) of rain may fall over the weekend. Skies will clear out late Sunday setting the stage for another spectacular work week next week. Temperatures are forecast to rise back above normal with nothing but sunshine from Monday to Friday.

Of note, yesterday we were thinking that a tropical system might get going in the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps threaten Florida or the east coast. This is becoming less likely, at least at this time. The tropics look quiet for the weekend, a blessing at this time of the year.

First snow across Rockies & warm in southern Quebec

Summer 2013 is just about over with the Fall Equinox to occur this Sunday. The summer will end cold out west and with a warming trend here in the east. Montreal can expect sunshine today and Friday with warm high temperatures of 24C and 27C respectively. High pressure that has dominated all week will slowly slide off to the east allowing a cold front to cross the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday. So sadly it looks like showers for both days this weekend. Temperatures will cool back down into the high teens for both days.

There is lots of weather to speak off across North America from tropical activity in the south to snow in the west and across portions of Alaska. September snow is not unusual, but being that it has been such a warm summer, it is a little surprising. A couple of centimeters fell at Sunshine Village near Banff yesterday as seen on the their webcam image above. It should melt today as temperatures warm up slightly in Alberta.

Mexico continues to be hammered by two tropical systems causing severe flooding with over 60 deaths reported. Hurricane Manual has re-developed just off the Pacific coast and continues to pound the region with heavy rain. Forecasters are now watching the warm Gulf of Mexico waters near the Yucatan for development of the next storm, Jerry. Several computers models develop this storm and take Jerry towards Florida so this system will have to be watched over the next 48 hours.

Cool start to day - but beautiful week ahead

Strong high pressure is now in control of the weather in southern Quebec and much of Ontario and New England. It is a cold start to the day with clear skies and temperatures ranging from below freezing in the Adirondacks and Townships to around 4C (39F) here in Montreal. There was no frost this morning, at least here on L'Ile Perrot. I imagine with lows at 0C or colder in many locations, other areas were not so lucky. It will be sunny today and right through the end of the week with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs of 17C (63F) today but warming into the mid 20's by Friday. Lows will be much milder this evening around 8C (47F).

Another early frost expected for southern Quebec

Our rather unusual September will continue with near record lows forecast for many parts of southern Quebec and New England tonight. This occurring just days after record warmth and strong summer thunderstorms. L'Ile Perrot was chilly this morning after a cold front brought us around 10mm of rain overnight. The temperatures around the area this morning range from 5 to 9C. It was cold and wet walking the dog. Clearing skies have already moved into the Ottawa Valley, and they should arrive in Montreal by mid morning. Look for temperatures to rebound to near 15C before diving down to near the freezing point tonight with patchy frost in the city and suburbs. Away from the water most areas north and southeast of the city and across northern New England will see frost. Frost warnings have been posted for those regions and I suspect the growing season may come to an end in several communities. Remember it is still summer!

HURRICANE INGRID
Ingrid is located near the Mexican Gulf Coast this morning with 75mph winds. Wind and a storm surge are likely along the immediate coast from extreme south Texas into Mexico but the main threat will be rain. Ingrid will weaken after landfall this morning but move slowly into the mountainous terrain of central Mexico. The slow moving nature of the storm combined with the mountains will produce copious amounts of rain. Major flooding and mudslides are expected for this area with the potential for damage and loss of life quite high. Up to 25 inches of rain may fall this week in that region.

Cooler less humid weekend for Montreal

Lightning illuminates US 1A in North Hampton Beach.

It has been a really wild weather week with record heat sparking big thunderstorms over Quebec, Ontario and New England. The storms dumped 50-100mm from Montreal south with flooding, power outages and trees down. Now colder air is settling in with just a few showers around. Wednesday's near record high of 31C in Montreal is long gone as we will struggle to hit 16C today.

Meanwhile major flooding occurred in Boulder, Colorado yesterday with as much as 10 inches of rain sweeping away cars, homes and everything in its path. Three fatalities were reported in what some are describing as a 500 year flood very similar in nature to what happened in Alberta this year.

Finally the tropics remain active with a weak but very wet tropical depression Gabrielle about to interact with a cold front and deluge Atlantic Canada. Heavy rain warnings are posted for up to 100mm of rain along with 70 km/h winds in Cape Breton and later western Newfoundland. In the Gulf of Mexico TD 10 has formed and is forecast to become a tropical storm and affect Mexico and south Texas this weekend with torrential rain and flooding.

This is my last day blogging with the crashing surf in the background. I could live here, just missing my dog and I would move in! It has been an active week here with July heat followed by strong storms. I leave you with two of the best lightning shots I have ever taken above and below. I took them in the early hours of Thursday morning looking across US 1A into the Atlantic Ocean.


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Record heat & humidity

Take time to remember today on this 12th anniversary of 9/11. Thank you to all who continue to protect our freedom here in North America. Above is the Portsmouth, NH Coast Guard Station. (ValleyWX)

A stubborn warm front remains just to the south of Montreal this morning separating record September heat from the misty, cool weather in the valley. Cornwall and Kemptville in Ontario were already in the mid 20's this morning while Montreal remained in the middle teens. All areas will see warm and humid highs pushing 30C (86F) today. Records were smashed across Ontario on Tuesday as highs pushed 32 to 34C. Further south where I am in New Hampshire, highs are forecast as warm as 95F today. The record for Montreal today is 31.1 set in 1947. We have a shot at it if we see the low clouds and mist lift.Thunderstorms over the last 24 hours left about 10mm of rain here on L'Ile Perrot. Strong storms are likely over the next 24 hours as a strong cold front slices through this thick, unseasonably humid air. Heavy rain may be the main threat with as much as 50mm expected. Strong winds and hail are possible as well. The biggest threat in Montreal will be late today into early Thursday morning.

The tropics have become active in what has been a very tranquil season to date. Hurricane Humberto developed early this morning saving the Atlantic basin from the "latest developing hurricane in any season record", by three hours! This system is way out in the Atlantic and no threat to land. Meanwhile of greater concern is tropical storm Gabrielle, located 85km west of Bermuda. The island nation has had wind gusts over 40 mph and very rough seas. Gabrielle is expected to weaken slightly as it moves off to the north and northeast. The storm will affect the coastal waters off Atlantic Canada and possibly Newfoundland by the weekend.

Summer heat & big thunderstorms

A warm front along the US border has become the focus for heavy showers and thunderstorms this morning. They will taper mid day and then fire up again this afternoon. There is a risk of severe weather with heavy rain, hail and even the risk of isolated tornadoes over upstate NY and Vermont. Southern Ontario is already warm and humid with temperatures near 24C in Windsor on the way to 34C with humidex readings over 40C. Clouds will keep Montreal around 29C.

Where I am along the coast it will be warm and humid near 80F today and over 90F, perhaps record setting Wednesday. The entire region will see more strong storms Thursday as a cold front cuts across the area. More cold air will pour into the region on the weekend with temperatures plummeting from record setting to well below normal and frost.

TROPICAL UPDATE
Two tropical systems are in the Atlantic basin this morning, Gabrielle and Humberto. Tropical storm Gabrielle will brush Bermuda before it heads towards Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile tropical storm Humberto is way out in the Atlantic Ocean south of the Cape Verde Islands. If Humberto reaches hurricane status today, it will avoid a record breaking year for the latest hurricane to develop in any season. The previous year was 2002 when Gustav formed at 8am on September 11.
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