Major pattern change on the way for eastern Canada

The pattern of alternating warm and cold weather that has been around most of this fall, will come to an end this week. An arctic front will bring in much colder air, that is expected to remain in Ontario and Quebec through December. (AccuWeather.com)

11:45 UPDATE: Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for western New York counties for Lake Effect snow by Wednesday.

Environment Canada has issued a wind warning for the Richelieu Valley for late tonight and early Tuesday. Expect south winds gusting up to 90km/h.

The mild weather is about to come to an end, and won't likely return until May. No, but seriously, Arctic air is set to invade the Great Lakes over the next 48 hours, sliding into eastern Canada by the weekend. The catalyst will be a major winter storm developing over Colorado, and moving northward toward Lake Superior. Montreal, southern Ontario and Quebec will be on the warm side of the system, with a surge of mild air through Wednesday. Closer to the center of the storm, heavy rain is forecast from Michigan into central Ontario. West of the storm track, blizzard conditions are expected from the Dakotas into extreme southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Forecasters are calling for 30 to 40cm of wind driven snow in some regions, along with dropping temperatures. Travel is not advised tonight and Tuesday across portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota and northwest Ontario.

In Montreal, sunshine on Monday will fade away as clouds increase. Tuesday will be cloudy and very mild, with high temperatures soaring to 9C (48F). Winds will increase tonight, becoming quite strong in the afternoon, gusting up to 60km/h. A cold front, the leading edge of the arctic air, will sweep across the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with gusty winds, rain and dropping temperatures. The balance of the week will be much colder, with the chance of flurries through Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to become increasingly colder as we head into the weekend. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 0C (32F) by Friday. At this time, it looks like the balance of the month will remain below freezing in southern Quebec, with frequent chances for accumulating snow. Next week, daytime high temperatures will be no better than -3C (27F). The details will become clearer as time moves along, but expect much colder weather starting late this week.

Enjoy the mild weather, winter set to return

Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray, shown above, along with his teammates, the Calgary Stampeders and fans, battled steady snow Sunday night during the 105th Grey Cup in Ottawa. (TSN)

Despite the quick 5cm of snow that fell on the 105th Grey Cup Sunday in Ottawa, and across southern Quebec, it has been a mild week once again. In keeping with the last blog entry, the temperature roller coaster ride continues. There was no better example of this than the snow and biting cold Sunday and early Monday, followed by windy and warm weather Tuesday. On Tuesday, Toronto reached 17.1C (63F), Ottawa 11C (52F), remarkably after an early morning low of -13.7C (8F), and Montreal 6C (43F), after a low of -11.7C (10F). A series of weak weather systems will keep the temperature bouncing around through the first week of December. Expect the weather to remain fairly mundane in Montreal, with more clouds than sun and temperatures well above normal.

Cold weather is forecast to return to eastern Canada by December 10th. (AccuWeather)

Cold Weather Returns
There are strong indications that we will see a major pattern change by December 10th or so. Expect much colder air to return, and last through Christmas, along with frequent opportunities for measurable snow. The jet stream is expected to become more amplified, allowing storms to move slower, gain strength and gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. The exact details are hard to pinpoint at this time, but temperatures will return to normal levels and eventually below normal in Montreal. This would put daytime highs well below freezing. There is a good chance of a snowstorm around the 11th of December and again near Christmas. The cold weather is expected to stay with us right through the end of December.

Weather whiplash in southern Quebec

The first snow of the season in Vaudreuil last weekend, did not last long, as warm air returned by mid-week. (ValleyWX)

After a record breaking warm October in Ontario and Quebec, November is proving to be anything but certain. If you are not sure which jacket to grab in the morning, you are not alone. The change in temperature from day to day is enough to give you whiplash. With a predominate west to east "zonal" flow in place across Canada, weather systems have been moving rather quickly, producing highly variable weather. On Sunday, November 19, Montreal recorded the first measurable snowfall of the season, with anywhere from 2-5cm falling. Monday was windy and bitter cold, with snow flurries and temperatures at -6C (21F), windchill values were as cold as -18C (0F) However, just 24 hours later the temperature was 8C (48F), with bright sunshine. This pretty much describes the month we have had in Montreal, from mid-winter cold, to near record-breaking warmth and back again, at times in just a few hours.

That brings us to this weekend, where pretty much the same pattern is in place. The current weather is being produced by a potent cold front slipping across the St. Lawrence Valley. A steady rain in Montreal, will slowly taper to a few flurries tonight. Gusty west winds will increase up to 50km/h this evening. Temperatures in southern Quebec today are in the 5 to 10C (40 to 50F) range. Behind the front, cold air will surge into the region, with lows down to -4C (26F) by Sunday morning. Sunday will be windy and cold, with flurries and temperatures remaining steady. Yet another clipper system will arrive late Sunday into Monday, with some light snow and chilly temperatures. However, the cold will not last long. By Tuesday, more mild air will surge into the region, with temperatures well above normal expected for most of the upcoming week. As long as this flat, zonal pattern remains in place, the arctic air will remain trapped across the far north, with any storm systems being rather weak and moisture starved. I expect a change by the second week of December.

Freezing rain warning for southern Quebec

Freezing rain warnings are in place for southern Quebec this afternoon and tonight.

Strengthening low pressure will rapidly move from the central plains into the Great Lakes tonight, and down the St. Lawrence Valley on Sunday. Waves of precipitation are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours from southern Ontario into Quebec. Along the path of the storm, mixed precipitation is forecast. North and west of the system, snow will be the dominate precipitation, with as much as 25cm expected in the Laurentians and upper Ottawa Valley. South of the track towards the US border and in the Townships, look for mostly rain.

Freezing Rain Warning
Environment Canada has a wide range of warnings in effect for this afternoon and especially overnight. In Montreal, a freezing rain warning has been posted. A mix of snow and rain this afternoon, will transition to rain tonight as the temperature rises from -2C (28F) up to 4C (39F) by morning. Expect between 2-4mm of ice in Montreal. North of the city and in Ottawa, the freezing rain will last longer, with as much as 15mm possible. In Ottawa, the rain will change back to snow overnight, with as much as 10cm before it ends on Sunday. As the storm moves east of Montreal on Sunday, a strong cold front will sweep the region. Cold air will surge back into Ontario and southern Quebec, with any mixed precipitation changing back to all snow and ending in the afternoon. A couple of centimeters of snow are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday. Temperatures will fall back below freezing by noon on Sunday. Strong winds will also develop on Sunday, gusting up to 60km/h across the entire area. Travel will be highly variable and quite dangerous at times this weekend. Expect icy patches in the city. North and west of Montreal, conditions will quickly deteriorate, with lowering visibility and snow covered roads. The weather will improve on Monday.

Strong weekend storm to bring rain and snow to Quebec

Cold air will follow the weekend storm into eastern Canada and the US. Expect temperatures to be well below normal, along with lake effect snow and snowshowers. (AccuWeather.com)

A strong fall storm is forecast to develop over the Midwest US on Friday, moving across the Great Lakes and eventually down the St. Lawrence Valley this weekend. The strengthening storm is expected to bring a messy mix of rain and snow to eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. Precipitation is expected to start Saturday in Montreal, in the form of wet snow, likely mixing with and changing to rain in the city. A heavy wet snow mixed at times with freezing rain is forecast at this time north of Montreal into the lower Laurentians, as well as in the Ottawa Valley.

As much as 20cm of snow is possible north of Montreal. At this time, the forecast track of the storm is not set in stone. A change of a few kilometres will mean the difference between snow or rain for several locations. Temperatures will be cold on Friday in Montreal, warming slightly Saturday to above freezing, before cooling off Sunday. Strong winds and dropping temperatures are expected in the wake of the storm on Sunday. Winds are expected to be above 50km/h Sunday. The temperature will remain below normal next week along with the chance for some light snow or flurries.

Record cold weekend - can the snow be far behind

The first cold air of the season blasted into southern Quebec last weekend. Some locations in Quebec and Ontario recorded their first measurable snow as well. Montreal only had a trace, but more is on the way, soon.  

Temperatures across southern Quebec are slowly moderating to start the work week, after record cold Friday and Saturday. Friday was an absolute shock to the system, as a record low temperature of -8.9C (16F) in Montreal, combined with howling winds over 50km/h, to produce mid-January like windchill values. After the warm fall we have had, it was a wake up call. More cold occurred Saturday, with a record low of -9.7C (14.5F), the old record low was -8.3C (17F) set in 1973. Those temperatures were at Trudeau Airport on the island, it was much colder in the suburbs. On Saturday, the mercury remained below freezing all day with a high of -1.3C. Thankfully the wind slowly diminished for Remembrance Day services. Some snow accompanied the cold air, with a trace to 1cm in Montreal. There were some icy spots on Friday, but roads were mostly clear in the city. The cold and threat of snow had motorists scrambling to get their winter tires on. The deadline in Quebec is December 15, but that is laughable at best. Trust me when I tell you, we will have significant snow before then, guaranteed.

Saturday was beautiful, but cold. The chilly St Lawrence Seaway looking south into New York State at  Johnstown, Ontario. (ValleyWX)

First Measurable Snow

With the arrival of the first arctic air of the season, and the ground now partially frozen, the first measurable snow can't be too far behind. A clipper-type low will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday, with a light rain and snow mix. Any accumulations will be confined to the higher elevations and points north of Montreal. Behind this weak system, cooler air will filter back into the region for Friday. By next weekend, a much stronger storm will approach from the southwest, once again look for a mix changing to a cold rain in Montreal. This storm has the potential to produce measurable snow in some locations, along with gusty winds. By Sunday, cooler air returns, with any precipitation changing back to flurries. At this time, next week looks colder than normal, with the chance for more snow by mid-week.

First arctic blast of the season for southern Quebec

A strong arctic cold front will precede the coldest air of the season in southern Quebec. Some light snow and a rapid freeze is expected late Thursday night in Montreal. (AccuWeather.com)

The first shot of polar air this fall season is forecast to invade southern Quebec late Thursday and Friday. Expect gusty winds, some snow and ice and a hard freeze by Friday morning. Arctic air has taken up residence in western Canada, with temperatures in the minus teens. A portion of the same airmass will arrive behind a potent cold front late Thursday. The front should cross southern Quebec shortly after midnight early Friday morning. Temperatures will rise to around 8C (48F) on Thursday, along with an increase in clouds. 

Frigid Friday

The arctic boundary that will cross the Great Lakes and southern Quebec late Thursday, will be accompanied by gusty winds and periods of rain changing to our first snow of the season. In Montreal a dusting to 1cm may fall, along with plummeting temperatures. Some higher elevations of Quebec and New England can expect as much as 5cm. Locations near the Great Lakes and across northwest Quebec may receive even heavier amounts. By Friday morning, the temperature in the city will be at a bone-chilling -11C (12F). This will come as quite the shock to the system after the extremely warm fall we have experienced. Friday will be windy and frigid, with high temperatures no better than -5C (23F). Gusty winds in excess of 50km/h will produce windchill readings near -18C (0F). Temperatures will moderate closer to normal levels as we head into the weekend. Saturday looks sunny at this time, with perhaps a few flurries or showers on Sunday. The average high/low for this time of year in Montreal should be plus 7C (45F) and -1C (30F) respectively.

Canada’s new weather supercomputers will improve forecasts and warnings

I had the absolute privilege of meeting the current President of the World Meteorological Organization and Assistant Deputy Minister for the Meteorological Service of Canada, David Grimes, in Dorval on Thursday. (Photo: Robert Frank)

Canada has moved to the forefront of weather computer modeling with the delivery of two High Performance Computers (HPC) from Shared Services Canada (SSC) and IBM. These high-performance computers were officially dedicated at a service at the Canadian Meteorological Centre in Dorval on Thursday, November 2. Minister of Public Service and Procurement, Carla Qualtrough was on hand for the unveiling. But, as a weather nerd, it was Assistant Deputy Minister for the Meteorological Service of Canada and current President of the World Meteorological Organization, David Grimes, who caught my attention. It was an absolute honour to talk to him about the new computers and weather in general. A video presentation of last weekend’s intense storm, as displayed by the new supercomputer modeling output, was beyond impressive. According to Grimes, these computers will make Canada, “one of the best modeling centers in the world”. “Our early-warning system has been greatly enhanced,” he added. The new HPC solution is the fastest recorded computer platform within the Government of Canada, and among the fastest in the world. 

The super computers will allow for complex weather programs and models, involving over 10 billion data points, to be processed much quicker. The end result for Canadians will be more accurate and timely forecasts and warnings. What was exciting for me to discover was that my Davis Vantage Vu weather station, in my backyard on L’Ile Perrot, is likely one of those data points. Information is pumped into these computers from all around the country and the world. Weather knows no boundaries. If you are processing weather data and uploading it to the web, it will likely be used in one calculation or another.

Computer weather modeling has become crucial in recent years.  It allows forecasters to input current weather data, along with additional information, variables and parameters, to basically map out how weather systems will move in both the short and long-term. According to Grimes, a typical model run can take around seven hours, but that will gradually be reduced over the next decade, down to almost real time within ten years.

The HPC is five times faster than the old Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) computers, processing data at an astonishing 2.444 trillion calculations per second. The HPC is primarily for ECCC weather predictions, but additional organizations will also benefit from this resource. Health Canada for air quality alerts, Fisheries and Oceans Canada to support ocean modeling and Public Safety Canada to support environmental emergency prevention – just to name a few. Today’s new supercomputers are 70 million times faster than Environment Canada’s first supercomputer purchased in 1974.

The new ECCC supercomputers were dedicated to; Kenneth Hare above, and Harriet Brooks below.
(ECCC Photo)

The new supercomputers were named for two late distinguished Canadian scientists: Harriet Brooks, Canada’s first female nuclear physicist, who worked with Marie Curie and contributed to research on radon gas, and Kenneth Hare, Canadian environmental science advocate, who warned about carbon-driven climate change long before many others were paying attention.

Widespread damage across Quebec in the wake of storm

A deep coastal storm produced damaging winds across southern Quebec on Monday, including the Eastern Townships shown above. (Photo: Sandra Thomson) 

The storm is over but the scars remain. Montreal was rather fortunate, as the worst of the powerful coastal storm seemed to split the city. Deep low pressure moved just west of Montreal, producing near record low barometric pressure (976mb) and winds up to 80km/h. We were lucky ones. Other regions had winds in excess of 100km/h, combined with torrential rains and flooding.

In the wake of the storm, nearly 1.5 million customers were without power in New England, Quebec and Ontario. As of 11am Tuesday, 40,000 Hydro Quebec customers were still without power across the province. The utility has over 700 personnel on the job. The storm also took down thousands of trees, many onto homes and cars. Peak wind gusts over the last 36 hours included, 214km/h (133mph) on Mount Washington, New Hampshire, 101km/h (63mph) at Burlington, Vermont, 109km/h (68mph) at Port Menier, Quebec, 87km/h (54mph) at Saint Hubert and 80km/h (49mph) at Trudeau Airport in Montreal. Warm air circulated along the east side of the low pressure, with 28 record highs reported in Quebec on Monday. Thunderstorms even rattled across Quebec City producing additional heavy rain and wind damage.

Hydro Quebec has 700 workers on the job, after strong winds knocked power out to over 200,000 Quebec homes. Above a crew works in Knowlton, Quebec. (Knowlton.com)

West of the storm track, extremely heavy rain fell. Flooding occurred in Ottawa/Gatineau, where 112mm of rain fell in less than 48 hours. Today a flood watch remains in effect across the Rideau Valley. Major flooding was also reported in New Hampshire, where numerous rivers overflowed their banks, sweeping away roads and in some cases entire homes.

Cold air has settled into southern Quebec for Halloween. Gusty west winds will continue today, diminishing towards sunset. Temperatures will be near 4C (39F) for trick or treating. Indications are that the cool weather and perhaps even flurries or light snow will occur during the first week of November. Now might be the time to get those snow tires on.

Damaging winds for Montreal

NOAA water vapor image of powerful low pressure moving north up the Hudson Valley, (dry slot in the middle of the image) towards Montreal this morning.

A high wind warning remains in effect for the entire region this morning. Winds have been gusting in excess of 100km/h across the Eastern Townships into Vermont overnight. In Montreal, gusts have been up to 60km/h, but they will increase towards 90km/h this morning. Deep low pressure will move north from the Hudson Valley towards Massena, New York today and into western Quebec tonight. Extremely low barometric pressure readings have been occurring across our area, with 977mb here at my home on L'Ile Perrot and 972mb at Ottawa. This represents the lowest pressure of the year for L'Ile Perrot. Also, the pressure has fallen 20mb since midnight, indicating just how strong this storm is. Southeast winds and a dry slot cut off precipitation here in Montreal overnight, with 25 to 30mm recorded. On the cold side of the storm in Ottawa, heavy rain fell all night, with in excess of 50mm falling. The weather is also very warm in Montreal this morning. With a temperature of 19C (66F) at 6am, Montreal is the warmest location in the country.

Storm damage in New England overnight. (NBCCT)

The wind has caused widespread damage and power outages across New England and Quebec. In Quebec, Hydro is reporting 157,000 customers without power as of 7am. That number will only grow as the strongest winds move into metro Montreal.

As the storm moves north of Montreal today, winds will shift to the southwest and west and eventually diminish a little by evening. Temperatures will also drop rapidly today back into the single digits. Showers, some heavy are expected through early afternoon.

Heavy rain warning for Montreal & Eastern Ontario

Strong damaging wins are forecast for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. (AccuWeather.com)

11:00 AM Sunday Storm Update:
Low pressure, a combination of a developing coastal storm along with input from Tropical Storm Philippe, is forecast to move northward along the east coast today. By Monday, the strong fall storm will be very close to Montreal. Rain has developed today well in advance of the system and will increase in coverage an intensity tonight. A heavy rain warning has been issued by Environment Canada for Montreal and most of southern Quebec. The warnings extend into Ontario and New York. Forecast rain amounts for the next 24 hours are quite impressive, with 50 to 100mm (2 to 4 inches) expected from Montreal west towards Kingston and south into upstate New York. In addition to the heavy rain, strong winds are forecast late today and Monday. The winds will increase out of the southeast up to 100km/h (60mph) late today from central New England towards the Eastern Townships. On Monday the area of strongest winds will be the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern Ontario, where gust will approach 90km/h (55mph), including here in Montreal. Some flooding is possible from the heavy rain, but I think the real concern with this storm for Montreal will be the strong winds on Monday. Expect tree damage and power outages here in southern Quebec.

Please note, when following weather on this site or any site for that matter, always verify the time the warnings were issued. Keep in mind, that for safety reasons, only Environment Canada or the National Weather Service stateside, have the authority to issue official weather warnings. Stay weather savvy my friends, and most importantly be safe.

Potent pre-Halloween storm for southern Quebec & Ontario

AccuWeather.com

High impact weather event expected for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario Sunday and Monday.

Computer models continue to indicate that strong low pressure will impact our region starting late tonight through late Monday. In the meantime, we have the calm before the storm in Montreal, with a perfect late October day. The 2pm temperature at Trudeau Airport is 18C (65F), with abundant sunshine. Behind a potent cold front, Toronto sits at 7C (45F).

The aforementioned front will become the focus for very heavy rain on Sunday. As the front advances eastward, low pressure will develop along the east coast and ride northward along it towards Lake Champlain. This storm is expected to strengthen rapidly, producing a widespread, high impact weather event. Heavy rain will fall along and west of the storm track. At this time, the heaviest rain, up to 100mm (4 inches), is expected from Watertown and Kingston northeast towards Ottawa. Here in Montreal 40-60mm is likely. Another component of the storm will be strong winds. The winds will develop late Sunday from the southeast up to 60km/h, backing to the northwest Monday and increasing up to 100km/h. Winds of this strength can bring down trees and produce power outages.

With all the leaves on the ground and those likely to be stripped form the trees, urban flooding is a real concern. Expect travel delays across the entire region late Sunday and Monday. In New England and eastern Quebec, coastal flooding will also be a concern. The storm should move out of the region by early Tuesday. The weather will turn much colder behind the storm, with showers and perhaps a few flurries on Halloween day.

As of 3pm, a flood watch is in effect for the US side of the St. Lawrence Valley, along with a high wind watch. At this time, special weather statements are highlighting the storm on the Canadian side of the border. I expect official warnings will be issued at some point later today. I will update these as they happen.

Strong fall storm to impact southern Quebec

A strengthening coastal storm is forecast to bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern Quebec on Sunday and Monday. (AccuWeather.com)

Cooler weather has settled into southern Quebec to end the work week. As we head into the last weekend of October, big changes are on the horizon. Saturday will be partly cloudy and relatively mild, with daytime highs near 15C (59F). Late Saturday and early Sunday, low pressure will move east from the Great Lakes into Quebec, with showers. This is the same system that spread snow across the upper midwest, southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Montreal however will remain on the mild side of this system, with all liquid precipitation. On Sunday, a rapidly strengthening coastal storm will move northward from Florida to the Carolinas, and eventually into New England by early Monday. This storm has the potential to produce very heavy rain across the region, along with strong winds.

The heavy rain is expected to fall during a 12 to 18 hour period Sunday into early Monday, with between 50 and 100mm (2-4 inches) possible. In addition to the rain, gusty winds of up to 80km/h are possible as well. Some localized flooding is likely, along with the potential for power outages. A special weather statement has been issued by Environment Canada. This may be upgraded to a weather warning as the weekend progresses and the forecast becomes more certain.

The Halloween forecast looks cloudy and cold but thankfully dry.

Behind the storm, much colder air will be drawn south, with a chance for some flurries in the higher elevations by Halloween. The good news for trick or treaters is that the weather should improve by Tuesday. Conditions will be cloud but dry, it will however be much cooler, with daytime highs near 6C (43F).

Cooler fall weather forecast to return to Montreal

Much cooler, wet weather is on tap for Montreal as the week progresses. (AccuWeather)

The weather in Montreal this October has been nothing short of spectacular. To date, including Monday, Montreal has recorded 9 days where the temperature has been 21C (70F) or higher. Normally, we have none. The average high temperature between October 1 and 22 was 18.9C (66F), the long-term average for this period should be 13C (55F). The overnight lows have been mild as well, with an average low of 8.6C (48F). The normal low should be 4C (39F). Our peak temperature so far this month was 25.8C (79F). On Monday, the warm weather continued, with a high of 22C (72F) at Trudeau Airport, shy of the daily record of 25C (77F) set in 1979, and well above the normal of 11C (52F). St Anicet, southwest of Montreal, was the warmest location in Canada on Monday, reaching a record-breaking 25C (77F).

There are major changes in the near future. The high pressure responsible for the perfect weekend weather will move off the east coast tonight. In its wake, a low pressure area and cold front will slide across the Great Lakes into southern Quebec on Tuesday. A period of showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. The rain may be heavy at times, with 25mm (1 inch) expected in Montreal, but as much as 50mm (2 inches) southeast of the city towards Sherbrooke and the US border. Gusty southerly winds up to 60km/h are forecast to accompany the rain on Tuesday. The temperature will be mild once again, reaching 21C (70F) before the frontal passage. Once the front clears the area, cooler air will settle into southern Quebec. The weather will not be frigid, just closer to what is should be for late October. The forecast high on Thursday is expected to be 13C (55F). Temperatures will moderate slightly into the weekend, with the chance of showers, before even colder air arrives to start next week.

Halloween & Beyond
At this time, the Halloween forecast looks cloudy and cooler, but dry in Montreal, with a daytime high of 9C (48F). Expect trick or treating temperatures of around 5C (41F). Looking ahead to the first week of November, single digit daytime high temperatures are expected at this time, along with perhaps a few showers or even some snowflakes. Frost is likely on numerous nights to start November, as temperatures drop below normal for the first time in weeks.

Record breaking Prairie windstorm - more warm weather for Montreal

The first frost of the season occurred on L'Ile Perrot early Tuesday morning. Our weather will turn unseasonably warm once again as we head into the upcoming weekend. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Another period of warm and dry weather is expected across much of southern Ontario and Quebec this week. Temperatures will go above normal in Montreal on Wednesday and remain that way right through the upcoming weekend. The average high/low for mid-October in Montreal is 3C/12C. Temperatures will be well above this, with daytime highs approaching 21C (70F) by Saturday. Overnight lows during this period will be between 7C and 13C (45 to 55F). Coming after our first official frost, which occurred on Tuesday morning, this could be considered our Indian Summer. Big changes are on the horizon for Montreal, as a potent cold front and upper level low pressure area will begin impacting our weather early next week. Showers, strong winds and much colder temperatures are expected by the end of next week, into Halloween.

Above and below: Wind speeds of up to 131km/h in Moose Jaw, 119km/h in Regina and 113km/h in Saskatoon, generated widespread damage on the prairies. (CBC Photo)

Prairie Windstorm
A fast moving low pressure and cold front swept across Alberta and Saskatchewan on Tuesday creating hurricane force wind gusts. Winds in excess of 100km/h knocked down trees and power lines, fanned grass and brush fires and took down hundreds of trees. In Alberta, the highest wind reported was at Acadia Valley at 126km/h. Meanwhile a gust to 131km/h occurred at 10pm in Moose Jaw. This was the strongest wind ever recorded in that city, the previous record was 119km/h set on October 16, 1991. The wind caused widespread damage to several homes and businesses. SaskPower reported multiple outages across the province, impacting thousands of customers.

In southwest Saskatchewan, a rapidly moving grass fire forced the evacuation of Leader, Burstall and the RM of Deerfork. Residents were allowed to return home Tuesday evening. The windy weather was being blamed for the derailment of 28 rail cars, blown off the tracks near Huxley, Alberta. The wind also blew dust and debris across the Trans-Canada Highway, making travel extremely dangerous from Calgary to Regina. In addition to the wind, 13 new record high temperatures were established in Saskatchewan on Tuesday. The strong winds have now moved east into Manitoba.

From record warmth to frost

Wind damage to homes in Mount-Laurier, north of Montreal. (Photo from Jason Campbell via CBC)

This weather this October could very well give you whiplash. A frost advisory is out for Montreal, just 24 hours after record warmth in southern Quebec. The first widespread frost of the season is likely Monday night in Montreal, with overnight lows between 0C and -2C (29 to 32F). On Sunday, strong low pressure over the Great Lakes, combined with a potent cold front to produce very strong winds and record warmth. Saint-Anne-de-Bellevue reached 24.6C (76F), eclipsing the old record of 23.3C (73F) set in 2014. Saint Clothilde near the US border was 25.7C (78F), also breaking the 2014 record of 23.8C. The warm spot in the entire country was Saint Anicet at 25.9C (79F). This morning, most locations are between 3C and 5C (37 to 41F), quite a shock to the system.

A powerful cold front is responsible for the fresh arctic air. That front generated a squall line that produced damaging winds from central and southern Ontario into southern Quebec. The hardest hit region in Quebec was the lower Laurentians, where winds knocked out power to over 10,000 homes and produced structural damage. In Mont-Laurier, 4 homes were damaged, two severely. No injuries were reported. Numerous trees were down across roads as well. In Ontario, winds gusted to 96km/h in Ottawa, 102km/h in Toronto, and 104km/h in London. Widespread damage was reported to trees and power lines. In the Montreal region, the front was less intense, with a peak wind gust to 69km/h at Sherbrooke, 67km/h at St Hubert and 61km/h at Trudeau Airport. Scattered power outages were reported in metro Montreal, with the largest in Pincourt where nearly 1000 customers were in the dark.

Hurricane Ophelia has taken a very rare path into Ireland. (NHC)

Hurricane Ophelia
Once Category 3 Hurricane Ophelia, is moving across Ireland on Monday. Winds of 176km/h (109 mph) were already observed on the small island of Fastnet Rock off the Irish coast. Towering seas and torrential rains are accompanying the rare hurricane. Ophelia has set a record as the most eastern Category 3 storm on record, another sign of our changing climate. Hurricanes rarely move into this part of the Atlantic due to the colder water temperatures. Across Ireland, schools and businesses are closed, hundreds of flights cancelled in Dublin, and power is out to over 120,000 customers. The military has been placed on standby. Storm warnings are in effect across Ireland and Scotland as well as the northern United Kingdom.

Another warm fall weekend for Montreal - changes on the way

Montreal can expect another warm weekend before much cooler air returns on Monday. (AccuWeather)

The temperature was a little closer to normal this past week in Montreal. The weather actually felt like October. This morning, I recorded 3.3C (37F) on L'Ile Perrot for the morning low. Some locations away from the city even had a light frost the last few mornings, but not here in Montreal. The average date for our first frost is October 7. However, in recent years, this has been more like October 15. It looks like a pattern change is in store over the next week or so, but not before another warm weekend in southern Quebec.

Enjoy the warm temperatures and beautiful fall foliage in Montreal this weekend. Changes are coming!

Low pressure is expected to move from Colorado, across the Great Lakes and north of Montreal on Saturday. Along the path of the storm, heavy rain is expected. Here in southern Quebec, a warm front will produce scattered showers tonight and early Saturday, before gusty southerly winds arrive and warmer temperatures. The high on Saturday will be near 20C (68F), with 22C (73F) expected Sunday. The record high for Sunday of 26.1C set in 1954, is in reach, but with expected cloud cover, it is unlikely we will get there. A cold front arrives on Sunday with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Much cooler air arrives for next week, with the likelihood of our first widespread frost by Tuesday morning. Morning lows will be at or just below 0C (32F) by next Tuesday.

There is plenty of cold air gathering across far northern Canada. The temperature was -22C (-8F) this morning in Mould Bay, Nunavut. It is just a matter time before pockets of this begin to impact eastern Canada. Parts of the Prairies were well below freezing this morning as well, with Regina at -10C (14F). Temperature trends in Montreal have been well above normal since the start of September. However, look for a dramatic pattern change prior to Halloween in southern Quebec. At this time, it is looking like an early start to winter during November. Now is the time to start getting ready, while the weather is good.

Strong winds cut power to 37,000 Quebec homes

Hurricane Nate rapidly moved across the central Gulf Coast late Saturday and early Sunday, cutting power, flooding coastal regions and sinking boats. Nate will produce heavy rain in southern Ontario and Quebec Thanksgiving Monday. (The Weather Channel Photo)

A gusty cold front moved across southern Quebec on Sunday morning, producing winds of up to 82km/h at Trudeau Airport in Montreal. The wind pushed tree branches onto power lines, disrupting power to over 35,000 Quebec homes and businesses. Most were located off island to the north, but as many as 3000 were without power in Montreal. Here on L'Ile Perrot, power was restored by the noon hour. The weather remained windy for the balance of the day, gusting in excess of 50km/h. The front did little to lower the warm temperatures we have been experiencing. Our record warm fall continued on Sunday, with 16 new daily record highs established in the province. Montreal reached 25C (77F), just shy of the 25.6C record from 1970.

Hurricane Nate
Hurricane Nate made landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi early Sunday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. A storm surge of up to 10 feet impacted the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast, with flooding reported in many locations. The water receded rapidly, with the clean-up starting immediately. Wind gusts of up to 90mph, cut power to nearly 100,000 Gulf Coast residents. The surge left behind piles of debris and sand, but for the most part, damage appeared to be light. Flooding was reported at several coastal Casinos in Biloxi. Numerous boats were washed ashore or pushed into docks and pilings. Several tornadoes were also reported, especially across Alabama.

Nate has been a fast moving storm, travelling from Central America on Thursday to the Ohio Valley Monday morning. The storm has weakened to a post-tropical system early Monday, located near Akron, Ohio. Heavy rain is falling north and west of the center, with 25-50mm (1-2 inches) expected along the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley on Thanksgiving Monday. The rain will persist most of the day in Montreal, along with gusty northeast winds. Nate will move into Atlantic Canada tonight.

Hurricane Nate heads for central Gulf Coast

Satellite image of hurricane Nate, located 345 miles south of the Gulf Coast early Saturday, October 7. (NOAA)

Hurricane Nate is rapidly moving towards the central Gulf Coast on Saturday morning, as a category 1 storm. Warnings and watches are in effect from western Florida to central Louisiana, including metro New Orleans. As of 4am Saturday morning, Nate has 80mph (130km/h) winds and is moving north at 22mph (35km/h). The center of the storm is 345 miles (550km) south, southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Some strengthening is forecast by the National Hurricane Center before Nate crosses the coast late tonight. The coastlines of Mississippi and Alabama are prone to storm surge flooding. A surge of up to 9 feet is forecast in those regions. Heavy rainfall is forecast along the path of Nate from the Gulf Coast into New England. A state of emergency has been declared in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana in advance of the storm. Precautions to protect life and property are being rushed to completion Saturday morning.

Once inland, Nate will weaken rapidly to a depression and move towards southern New England. Much needed rainfall from Nate is forecast across southern Quebec on Thanksgiving Monday, with perhaps as much as 25mm (1 inch) here in Montreal.

Hurricane Nate is already being blamed for 21 deaths across Central America from flooding and mudslides.

Warm in Montreal while snow blankets southern Alberta

Heavy snow and blowing snow closed down a portion of the Trans Canada Highway east of Calgary on Tuesday, October 4. (Global News Photo)

The southern Quebec weather remains nearly perfect for early October. Sunshine along with above normal temperatures has prevailed since Sunday. Strong high pressure has delivered us the perfect days, along with chilly nights and widely scattered frost. A cold front is forecast to approach the region on Wednesday, with gusty southwest winds up to 50km/h and near record high temperatures of 26C (79F) forecast for Montreal. We will come close to the record for October 4 of 26.7C set in 2005. The cold front will lead to increasing clouds, along with showers and thunderstorms. Skies should clear on Thursday, with temperatures just slightly cooler. The weekend at this time will be partly cloudy, with showers. Temperatures will warm again to well above normal, and possibly record breaking by Sunday and Monday. Looking ahead deeper into October, above normal temperatures and dry weather is expected through the middle of the month. Beyond that, cooler weather is expected, but nothing earth shattering.

Alberta Snowstorm
While we were enjoying our beautiful weather here in eastern Canada, winter settled into southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Strong low pressure developed over Montana on Monday, producing heavy rain and snow across the region, along with winds in excess of 100km/h. The storm pulled down cold air on the west side of the system, producing heavy snow in the Rockies and across the plains south and east of Calgary. A portion of the Trans Canada Highway east of Calgary towards Medicine Hat was closed due to blowing snow and mounting accidents. Shelters were opened to help stranded motorists.

An impressive wind gust of 117km/h was recorded at Patricia, Alberta, 87km/h at Strathmore and 80km/h at Calgary. Snow totals included 10-15cm in and around Calgary, 20 to 25cm at Coronation and 35cm in the Cypress Hills bordering Alberta and Saskatchewan. On the warmer side of the low pressure, heavy rain fell along with thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts included, 59.6mm at Lucky Lake, 34mm at Swift Current and 19mm in Regina. Heavy snow also fell in portions of northern Montana. Conditions will warm up a little this week, so most of the snow should melt.