Major freezing rain event for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

The heaviest freezing rain will occur Saturday night in a narrow band across central Ontario and extreme southern Quebec. Within this zone up to 25mm (1 inch) of ice is possible. (AccuWeather.com) 

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.
Ice Storm Warning for the St. Lawrence Valley, northern New York and Vermont

Travel not recommended tonight in southern Quebec and Ontario. Plan for power outages.

A frontal boundary lies just north of Montreal early Saturday morning, the dividing line between very warm air to our south and arctic air to the north. Strong low pressure will ride along the front over the next 12 to 24 hours, spreading heavy rain and eventually freezing rain across the region.

Radar early Saturday morning is showing heavier rainfall moving into southwestern Quebec. Rainfall will continue all day, with as much as 25mm in Montreal. The rain will lead to isolated flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Temperatures today will be very mild, reaching up to 10C (50F).

The frontal boundary will begin to shift south early this evening across southern Quebec, ushering in much colder air at the surface, while the warm air remains aloft. This will set the stage for several hours of heavy freezing rain. Exactly where the boundary sets up, will establish who receives the most ice accretion. At this time is appears the heaviest frozen precipitation will occur across the southern portions of metro Montreal south to the US border, and along the St. Lawrence Valley towards Brockville and Kingston. Some locations within this band will receive up to 30mm of freezing rain. This is more than enough to take down tree branches and power lines.

Regions further north of this zone, including Laval, will cool off very quickly and switch over to ice pellets (sleet) or snow. The temperature will fall quickly down to -7C (19F) overnight in Montreal, and remain fairly steady Sunday. Winds will pick up as well overnight and Sunday, gusting as high as 70km/h in southern Quebec. The wind could take down ice covered branches and power lines on Sunday.

The weather will improve late Sunday and Monday, with just a few flurries forecast along with seasonable highs of -6C. Much colder air arrives late next week, remaining for the balance of January.

Dangerous freezing rain event for Montreal and Ottawa

A narrow band of heavy freezing rain will set up along a frontal boundary Saturday into Sunday. Montreal has the potential to receive a significant amount of frozen precipitation. (AccuWeather.com)

Special Weather Statement: Montreal and Ottawa.
Winter Storm Watch: St. Lawrence Valley

A period of heavy freezing rain is forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley including Montreal late Saturday into Sunday.

A very dangerous weather situation is setting up for the upcoming weekend across a portion of Ontario and southern Quebec. A warm front is lifting north of Montreal Friday morning, with temperatures expected to rise rapidly today up to 5C (41F). A few flurries or spotty showers are expected today. Heavy rain changing to freezing rain is likely Saturday.

Ice Storm
On Saturday the aforementioned front will begin to settle south once again, with arctic air located just to the north and a surge of record breaking tropical air to the south or Montreal. Along the front, low pressure will lift north, accompanied by abundant moisture. Heavy rain will develop across the region, with as much as 25mm (1 inch) expected. Saturday evening, cold air is expected to bleed back into the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley as well as extreme northern Vermont and New York, with rain changing to freezing rain. Ice accumulations may be significant, with more than 25mm possible by Sunday morning. This amount of ice accretion will result in tree and power line damage. Expect power outages. Strong winds are also expected on Sunday, up to 70km/h in Montreal, which will only add to the damage potential. The precipitation will taper off Sunday afternoon.

The temperatures will be wild this weekend, possibly reaching a record high 10C (50F) in Montreal on Saturday. The previous record was 9.4C (49F) set in 1975. However the mercury will fall just a quickly Saturday night once the cold front slips south of Montreal, down to -7C (19F). The temperature range will be very dramatic across a very small region Saturday evening. Travel will become extremely difficult

Now is the time to plan for power outages. Charge your devices, prepare your home and make sure you have a full tank of gas. There is still some uncertainty in the path of the storm and where the freezing rain will set up. Hopefully Montreal ends up with more liquid precipitation or sleet, but at the moment, it is looking like freezing rain.

I will update the forecast and any warnings throughout the event.

Significant winter storm possible for Montreal this weekend

Significant amounts of rain, freezing rain and snow are possible this weekend in Ontario and Quebec.

Expect a temperature roller coaster ride over the next few days, with a significant winter storm likely by the weekend for parts of southern Ontario and Quebec.

A cold front has crossed southern Quebec early Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a frosty 24 hours. Gusty winds up to 50km/h will accompany dropping temperatures into Thursday morning, with lows round -15C (5F) expected in Montreal. Thursday will see increasing clouds as a very complex winter storm begins to take shape across the central portion of the US.

Montreal will see increasing temperatures on Thursday as a warm front lifts across the St. Lawrence Valley. The low will be reached early in the evening, with the mercury climbing through Friday morning, all the way up to 7C (45F). Arctic high pressure will retreat just to our north, setting up a very tight temperature gradient across southern Quebec and Ontario. This will set the stage for a wide variety of precipitation this weekend.

A cold front will lie very close to Montreal early Saturday morning, with strong low pressure expected to ride along the front late in the day. This system will have abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture accompanying it, with as much as 75mm (3 inches) of precipitation possible in some locations across southern Ontario and Quebec. The forecast difficulty lies in the exact temperature when the influx of moisture arrives.

At this time rain is forecast on Saturday in Montreal, changing to freezing rain or snow late in the day. Temperatures will drop rapidly once the front settles south of the city. Gusty winds are also forecast with this storm. Some locations in the Montreal region may receive significant amounts of freezing rain or snow.

As the exact placement of the front becomes more clear, weather watches and warnings will likely be issued. If you have any travel plans this weekend, pay close attention to the latest forecasts.

A snowy and icy end to the decade for Montreal

It took until New Year's Eve for the ground to turn white in Montreal. Over 15cm of snow fell across southern Quebec on Tuesday, accompanied by ice pellets, freezing rain and 50km/h winds. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Montreal received over 15cm of snow late Monday into early Tuesday as a winter storm moved across the Great Lakes and into Quebec. The same storm delivered over 22 hours of freezing rain to Ottawa and portions of eastern Ontario. Montreal also received about 7mm of freezing rain, with more towards Vaudreuil and Valleyfield. The freezing rain resulted in numerous accidents and scattered power outages. Numerous flights were cancelled at Trudeau Airport. Joliette was the provincial winner with this storm, measuring 28cm of  fresh snow.

Winds gusted over 100km/h as the low pressure moved across southern Ontario. While Montreal remained on the cold side of the system, warm air surged into southern Ontario. Toronto reached a record breaking high of 10.2C (50F) on Monday, surpassing the previous high of  7.2C (45F) established in 1965.

Light snow continues to fall across southern Quebec this New Year's Eve, along with very mild temperatures. Another 2 to 5cm is possible overnight. Mild air will persist throughout this week and into the upcoming weekend. Another round of mixed precipitation is likely by Friday across southern Quebec. Cold air will finally return by the end of the weekend and into next week, with more opportunities for accumulating snow.

Have a safe and happy new year, see you in the new decade and thanks for reading!

Freezing rain covering southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

Road conditions are poor today across southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario, especially along Highways 20 and 401, shown above. 
(Photo via Twitter@carolin3aklor)

Freezing rain and snowfall warnings in effect for southern Quebec.

Travel is extremely dangerous Monday on highways outside of Montreal due to a combination of freezing rain, snow and strong winds. This is especially true south and west of the city.

A complex weather system consisting of an elongated warm front as well as low pressure over Michigan and a secondary low developing off the New England coast, will send waves of precipitation over southern Quebec and eastern Ontario over the next 36 hours.

The winter storm forecast for southern Quebec is turning out to be more ice than snow at this time. Temperatures are well below freezing as rain continues to fall Monday morning. This is not a surprise to me as I thought the snow amounts were overdone for our region. That being said, the the freezing rain should change to snow this afternoon and continue into Tuesday. Snowfall accumulations for Montreal, should be in the 10-15cm range, along with 5 to 10mm of ice.

Freezing rain mixed with ice pellets have been falling here on Ile Perrot since 7a.m. this morning. Further southwest, ice amounts are impressive with close to 10mm in Cornwall. The freezing rain has resulted in power outages across eastern Ontario, with 18,000 Hydro One customers in the dark as of 10a.m. Hydro Quebec is reporting 3500 without power, but the storm is only a few hours old in Quebec.

Precipitation is forecast to persist into New Years Eve. The weather should improve by New Years Day.

Strong winter storm to impact Ontario and Quebec

An icy landscape Saturday morning after 6mm of freezing rain fell on Friday across metro Montreal. The ice resulted in numerous accidents and an upswing in broken bones at local emergency rooms. Urgences Sante reported  dozens of calls for ice related injuries across the Montreal region. (Valley Weather)

A complex winter storm will move across the Great Lakes and into Ontario over the next 48 hours. This system will bring a wide mix of precipitation from heavy snow to ice pellets, freezing rain and eventually rain for some locations. The hardest hit regions will be from central Ontario into southwestern Quebec.

An approaching warm front from the southwest will run into slightly colder air trapped at the surface, as was the case on Friday. Freezing rain is forecast to develop this afternoon and this evening along the 401 corridor from Kingston to the Quebec border and north into the Ottawa Valley. Some locations may receive up to 20mm in ice accretion. This amount could easily result in widespread tree damage and power outages.

An ice storm is likely across eastern Ontario into extreme southwest Quebec and the Adirondacks of New York.. Up to 20mm of ice is possible, which would result in power outages. (AccuWeather.com)

In Montreal, the forecast is a little more difficult at this time. Southwestern Quebec will be right on the line between freezing rain and heavy snow. At this time, 15 to 25cm of snow is possible late tonight into Monday, along with strong winds out of the northeast, up to 50km/h. A slight shift in the warm front would bring heavy freezing rain or ice pellets (sleet) into Montreal.

Montreal will remain on the dividing line between heavy snow and freezing rain. This is subject to change over the next 12 to 24 hours. If precipitation remains as all snow, over 20cm is possible for the city. Avoid any travel Monday if at all possible. (AccuWeather.com)

At this time, freezing rain warnings are in effect in central and eastern Ontario. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are posted for northern New York and Vermont. Montreal remains under a special weather statement, but warnings will likely be issued for some regions of Quebec by later this afternoon.

All travel in southwest Quebec and southern Ontario should be avoided overnight and Monday if at all possible. The precipitation will changeover to light snow across all regions on New Years Eve. Temperatures will remain mild into the first week of the new year, with the arctic air trapped over northern Canada. Daytime highs will continue well above normal, from -1C to 2C through the end of the upcoming week. Overnight lows will range from -5C to 0C during the period. Colder air will arrive by the second week of the month.

Freezing rain followed by another storm late Sunday

A stronger winter storm will approach the Great lakes on Sunday, with widespread rain, freezing rain and snow expected. Stronger winds are also likely in Montreal with this next storm. (AccuWeather.com)

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for Montreal.
Freezing rain will begin within the next hour across southwestern Quebec.

A warm front is currently lifting across eastern Ontario this evening, along with a push a milder air and some light precipitation. A mix of snow and freezing rain is expected in Montreal this evening into the overnight hours before changing to showers Friday morning. A freezing rain warning is in effect for southern Quebec and parts of eastern Ontario, including metro Montreal and Ottawa. Amounts of 2 to 5mm of freezing precipitation are possible. Roads will become very slippery and dangerous this evening, especially at the onset of the precipitation. Travel conditions will improve Friday morning.

Northeast winds are trapping colder air here in the St. Lawrence Valley, with the temperature currently at the high for the day of -4.4C. Temperatures will rise overnight, going above freezing by daybreak, reaching a high of 4C (39F) Friday. A cold front will move across the region late Friday, expect slightly cooler air for Saturday and Sunday, with daytime highs near 0C (32F).

Winter Storm late Sunday
A stronger storm system will arrive in the central Great Lakes by Sunday evening, once again travelling west of Montreal. Another warm surge of air is expected, with mixed precipitation possibly changing to rain. This forecast is a little more complicated than the current one, with a second low forecast to develop in southern New England. The second system may keep colder air trapped in both the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley well into Monday. The result may be heavier snow or perhaps an extended period of freezing rain. If you have any travel plans late Sunday and Monday, pay close attention to the latest forecasts and any watches and warnings that may be issued.

Another green Christmas for Montreal

The winter of 1970-1971 was historic in Montreal, with over 50cm of snow on the ground by Christmas Day 1970.

Whether you like it or not, there will be little to no snow on the ground for Christmas morning in Montreal. With the temperature hovering around 7C (45F) Monday afternoon, most of the snow is now gone, with the exception of a few dirty patches here and there. We did not have much to begin with, as only 13.4 cm has fallen this month at Trudeau Airport, the normal should be close to 50cm. We had more snow on the ground across most of Canada in November than we do now. Many major cities across southern Canada will have no snow this holiday season.

As I write this, I am looking out my office window at basically a brown landscape. This seems to becoming more normal with each passing year, far from the winters of my youth in the 1970s.

Taking a brief look back at the stats over the last decade indicates a sad reality for those who prefer a white Christmas. The average amount of snow on the ground on December 25th since 2010 has been a paltry 6.0cm in Montreal. On four occasions, 2014, 2015, 2018 and again this year, we have had no snow. According to Environment Canada, a white Christmas is defined as 2cm or more on the ground as of 7am, December 25th.

The most snow on the ground in Montreal on Christmas Day was 51cm during the historic winter of 1970-1971 when a total of 380cm fell for the season. In December 1970, as much as 64cm of snow was on the ground. Speaking of the 70's, we had a white Christmas each year from 1970 through 1978. In 1979, the streak came to an end, with 21.3mm of rain falling on the 25th.

As far as 2019 is concerned, mild weather Monday will be replaced by much cooler air for Tuesday through Thursday. Skies will be partly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from -9C to -12C for lows and -2C to -5C for daytime highs. Travel conditions will be ideal through Thursday. The next change for precipitation arrives overnight into Friday morning along a warm front. A mix of rain, freezing rain and snow is possible, but amounts should be fairly light.

Strong low pressure to impact southern Ontario & Quebec

Strengthening low pressure will move from the middle Atlantic region into southern Quebec by tonight. Very mild air will result in rain for much of southern Quebec. Much colder air returns late tonight and Sunday, with perhaps a few centimetres of snow. (AccuWeather.com)

Widespread rainfall and freezing rain warnings are in effect early Saturday morning as deepening low pressure lifts north from Maryland towards the Champlain Valley later today. The storm is carrying abundant moisture with it, with up to 25mm of rain forecast across the region. Temperatures are hovering near the freezing point this morning, with 0.9C here on Ile Perrot, with 5mm of rain falling so far. They will warm today as gusty southeast winds develop, up to 5C (41F).

The storm will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Vermont/Quebec border late tonight and moves into eastern Quebec Sunday. As it does so, much colder air will begin to wrap around the backside of the system and into Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Rain should begin to change to snow late this afternoon in Ontario and tonight in Montreal. Snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 3cm in Montreal, to as much as 10cm in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley of Ontario and New York. Roads will become slick as temperatures head below freezing and down to -7C by Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the colder temperatures, winds will increase out of the west and northwest, up to 70km/h into Sunday.

Further north and west across portions of central Quebec, heavy snow and freezing rain are forecast with as much as 30cm expected. Travel conditions are extremely poor today in those regions.

Precipitation will taper off to flurries early Sunday, along with blustery and colder conditions. The colder air is with us now through Christmas Day, with a few chances for light snow, but no major storms on the horizon for Montreal at this time.

Warm and wet storm on the horizon for Montreal

Last weekends storm just missed Montreal, but was one for the record books in central New York state, with 57cm falling in Albany, New York. 

Montreal is on the northern edge of a clipper system passing across southern Ontario into upstate New York early Friday. If thats sounds familiar it is because the storm is following the same track of last weekends epic snowstorm. This system is much weaker, spreading 5 to 10cm of snow along its path, with just a few snow showers across southwestern Quebec. Areas along a line from Vaudreuil through to the Ontario border and points south may pic up a quick 2cm of snow on Friday.

The storm that missed Montreal last weekend dumped up to 2 feet of snow across central New York and southern New England. It also created treacherous road conditions in southern Ontario, with three fatal accidents reported. Albany, New York measured its eighth largest snowstorm on record, with 22.6 inches of snow (57.4cm), falling over a 48 hour period. It was that cities largest snowstorm since the March 1993 superstorm. Seven New York counties were placed under a state of emergency, with schools closed for two days and thousands of flight cancelations. Hundreds of accidents were reported across the southern tier of New York into the Mohawk and Hudson Valley

For a comparison, Montreal had 40cm during the March 1993 superstorm, but not one flake fell this time. Snow fell up to and along the US/Canada border as well as in Ontario, the Gaspe and Atlantic Canada.

Warm Winter Storm
The next system on the horizon will a warm one despite the cold weekend ahead for Montreal. On Monday, much warmer air will surge into the St. Lawrence Valley, as a strengthening storm moves across the Great Lakes. Rain is forecast in Montreal, with perhaps some spotty freezing rain at the onset. Precipitation amounts will vary across the region, with a general 10-20mm of rain likely. Temperatures will be very warm early next week, 5 to 7C (40-45F) Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front arrives late Tuesday night, with much colder and windy weather expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet down to -11C (12F) on Wednesday. Any leftover rain will change to light snow before ending. Briefly looking beyond next week, another big storm is likely by the middle of the month. Depending on which model you prefer, this could be our white Christmas. Time will tell.

Temperatures across the southern portion of Quebec were frigid this November.

One final note, November 2019 was the coldest on record at Trudeau Airport, dating back to 1941. The mean monthly temperatures was -1.4C, well below the normal of 2.5C. We also threw in 32cm of snow, compared to the normal of 19cm.

Major winter storm to miss Montreal

Montreal will remain on the northern edge of a winter storm that has spread snow from California to Maine. (AccuWeather)

Cold weather will prevail through Sunday across southern Quebec, as the region remains on the northern edge of a strong winter storm. The storm in question has been producing heavy snow, strong winds and severe weather from California into the Great Lakes and across the deep south, during the busy Thanksgiving travel week in the US.

Sunday will be no different as low pressure moves towards Lake Ontario, while a second stronger storm develops off the New Jersey coast and slowly moves into Atlantic Canada. The combination of the two storm systems, will spread heavy snow and freezing rain from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Ontario and across the northeast.

Montreal can expect increasing clouds this afternoon along with gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h. Temperatures will be cold with, with a high of -5C (23F). Only a few flurries are expected from the storm, with the best chance for that along the Ontario and New York borders.

If you have any travel plans along Highway 401 towards Toronto, Ottawa or south along Interstate 87 into New York, Boston or New England, expect poor conditions with snow and gusty winds. Snow accumulations of 5 to 20cm are forecast in Ontario today, with 10-30cm across New York and New England this afternoon and Monday.

On Monday, skies should clear in Montreal, along with near normal temperatures, with a high of -4C (25F) and a low of -10C (14F). The next system arrives by Wednesday, with a chance for some light snow in Montreal.

There is more snow on the ground in many parts of southern California on December 1st, than there is in southern Quebec. (Caltrans Photo)

Montreal recorded 31.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport for the month of November. Despite this, only patches remain on the ground. In reality, there is more snow on the ground in several location in southern California, New Mexico and Arizona than in Montreal.

Active weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Another round of light snow is likely on Sunday in Montreal.

The mild weather of Friday has been replaced by a chilly Saturday morning in Montreal. Ile Perrot dropped to -8C (18F) overnight, after a daytime high of 7C (45F) on Friday. This was the warmest day in the last two weeks. The warmth along with gusty southwest winds and 2 to 5mm of rain, helped to melt much of the snow from last weeks storm. Warmer weather will return for the upcoming week before we dip below freezing for an extended period starting late this week.

In the short-term, high pressure will control the weather Saturday across southern Quebec, with a gusty southwest wind up to 40km/h and a daytime high of 2C (36F). The nice weather won't last long as our on and off again Sunday snowfall is back on. Computer models have been having a difficult time locking down the track of low pressure devolving over the lower Mississippi Valley. This system is now forecast to move across interior southern New England on Sunday. The path leaves Montreal on the extreme northwest edge of the precipitation shield. Expect clouds to increase overnight, with light snow or flurries possible on Sunday. Accumulations will be very light in Montreal, perhaps 2cm. Up to 10cm is possible over the Eastern Townships and Beauce, with 15 to 20cm over portions of northern New England. The snow will be wet, with highs near 0C (32F) forecast across the region.

Behind the low pressure, skies will clear out on Monday, with near normal temperatures expected. Another larger storm system is expected by mid-week in southern Quebec and Ontario, along with a mix of rain and snow possible. Behind that storm, very strong winds are likely by Thursday, along with dropping temperatures. 

More wintry precipitation for southern Quebec

Light freezing rain and snow will spread across extreme southern Quebec and New England late Monday and Tuesday. (AccuWeather.com)

After a sunny but very cold weekend, clouds are on the increase to start the week. Montreal had yet another record low this month, on Sunday morning at -13.2C (8.2F), crushing the previous low of -10.1C (14F) set in 1980. Monday should remain dry and cold, with daytime highs reaching -2C (29F) by late in the day. Clouds will begin to thicken this afternoon in response to a coastal storm moving north along the eastern seaboard and a trough moving east from the Great Lakes.

The combination of these two systems will bring a mix of light precipitation into Montreal very late this evening or after midnight. Montreal will remain on the extreme western edge of any major precipitation form the coastal system, but the trough from the Great Lakes will enhance moisture across the city tonight.

Not snow but sand blowing across the roads and ocean water forced the closure of portions of Highway 12 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina over the weekend. A strong coastal storm produced more significant damage and flooding to the same area that was heavily damaged by hurricane Dorian in September. (NCDOT Photo)

A mix of freezing rain and snow is likely in Montreal by midnight, changing to all snow overnight into Tuesday morning, and ending by afternoon. Accumulations will be fairly light in Montreal, but enough to make roads icy and perhaps force some delays at Trudeau Airport. Look for accumulations of 2 to 6cm for Montreal, with up to 10cm possible across the Townships and into the northern New England.

Townships under a freezing rain warning
Before the snow flies, the Eastern Townships can expect 5 to 10mm of freezing rain from late this evening into the overnight hours. Keep this in mind if your travels take you down Highway 10 towards Sherbrooke. Roads will be very icy in those regions. Precipitation amount with this storm system will taper off rapidly as you head north and west of metro Montreal, with very little if any snow expected for the Laurentians and Ottawa Valley.

The balance of the week will feature below normal temperatures, with another chance for snow or rain by late Thursday and Friday.

From record snow to record cold across Southern Quebec

The City of Montreal is conducting the earliest snow removal operation ever this week after a record breaking 21cm of snow fell on the region. Another shot of light snow is forecast Friday, followed by arctic air for the weekend. (ValleyWeather Photo)

A strong cold front will produce snow squalls across Southern Quebec and eastern Ontario Friday afternoon between 4 and 7pm.

A weak warm front is giving southern Quebec some very light snow late Thursday afternoon. Very little in the way of accumulation can be expected. The good news is that we can expect some warmer temperatures through Friday morning as we head out of the deep freeze for a few hours.

It has been a cold, snowy week, with a record setting 21cm of snow Monday and Tuesday, followed by two days of extremely cold weather for early November. On Tuesday we broke both records for coldest nighttime and daytime temperatures, the low was -10.9C (12F) (-9.4, 1971) with a high of only -4.6C (23.7F). We did the same Wednesday, with a low of -13.5C (8F) (-10.5C, 1986) and a brutally cold high of -7.1C (19F). Windchill reading were in the minus 20s, some of the coldest ever recorded so early in the season in Montreal.

The storm brought the monthly snow total so far to 29.6cm, well above the normal of 20cm, which is for the entire month.

More cold air is on the way. After the brief influx of mild air, a potent arctic boundary will slide across southern Quebec Friday afternoon. The front will be accompanied by scattered snow flurries and squalls. Visibilities may be reduced in sudden bursts of heavy snow during the afternoon hours. The front will bring even colder air to the region than that of earlier in the week. The high on Friday will be 2C (36F) reached during the midday hours. Temperatures will drop rapidly behind the front, down to -15C (5F) by Saturday morning in Montreal.

The weekend will be blustery and cold, but sunny with highs around -5C (23F). We may add two more record lows to the books, Saturday's record is -15C set in 1967 and Sunday's is -10.1C set in 1980. Milder air returns early next week, but temperatures will still remain below the normal high of 5C (41F) for mid November. There will be a chance of rain or snow showers by Tuesday.

Snowfall warning for Montreal

A potent fall storm will spread heavy snow across southern Ontario into southern Quebec to start the week. Anywhere from 15 to 30cm is forecast along the St. Lawrence Valley and points south. A little less, 10-15cm is expected in Ottawa. Record cold will surge into the region behind the storm. (AccuWeather.com)

Snowfall Warning in effect for Montreal

Widespread winter storm warnings are now in effect for a swath of eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and parts of the Northeast US and New England. An arctic boundary has slipped south of Montreal early Monday morning, with much colder air pouring into the region. Temperatures have fallen from a Sunday high of 6C (43F), down to -5C (23F) at 5am Monday. The cold air will remain with us for the balance of the week, with record low temperatures likely by Wednesday morning.

Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will lift northeast along the aforementioned arctic front through Tuesday. Moisture will overspread the region late Monday, with snow developing by the afternoon hours. The snow will become heavy overnight into the Tuesday morning commute in Montreal. This is a potent snowstorm for anytime of the season, but especially in early November as the first storm of the season. At this time forecasters are anticipating 15 to 25cm along the St. Lawrence Valley including Montreal, with up to 30cm across the Eastern Townships, northern New York and New England. The snow will spread into eastern Quebec Tuesday, accompanied by 50km/h winds, producing blowing snow.

If you have any travel plans from late today into Tuesday, consider postponing them or allow yourself plenty of extra time. Do yourself and everyone else a favour on the roads, if you have no winter tires on yet, use public transit. Be safe.

First snowstorm of the season possible for Montreal

Strong winds and wet snow are bringing a quick end to the fall foliage season across southern Quebec.

Our first taste of winter weather this season is upon us across southern Quebec, as a strong cold front produced 2 to 10cm of wet snow on Thursday. Most of the snow melted on contact acorss the Island of Montreal, but many off-island suburbs, including Ile Perrot, measured a coating to 2cm of slushy wet snow.

Early Friday morning, a few snow showers moved across Ile Perrot and the Vaudreuil/Dorion region, putting down a quick centimetre of snow. The sudden snow made for a very icy commute, at least until reaching the West Island, where no snow had fallen. Consider this the appetizer to a more potent storm early next week.

Montreal may be looking at our first snowstorm of the season, depending on the exact track of low pressure moving across southern New England early next week. (AccuWeather.com)

First snowstorm of the season?
Friday will be breezy and very cold for early November, with the temperature reaching only -1C (30F), the normal high should be 8C (48F). There is a chance for a few flurries today, as well as gusty northwest winds up to 40km/h, making it feel even colder. On Saturday, high pressure will move in giving Montreal a decent, milder day, with a high near 2C (36F). Sunday will be warmer as a frontal boundary approaches form the west. Expect a few showers around as daytime highs reach 6C (43F). The warmth will be short-lived.

A strong polar front crossing the region late Sunday, will usher in the coldest airmass of the season so far, with temperatures dropping to -10C (14F) by Monday morning. That front will stall across southern New England, setting the stage for Tuesday's potential snowstorm. Low pressure will develop over the Ohio Valley, and move along the front towards southern New England. The storm is forecast to deepen rapidly. Snow will spread into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late Monday night and persist through Tuesday. Depending on the exact track of the storm and how far south the front settles, we may be looking at a significant snowfall in Montreal. It remains too early for specific amounts, but it should be enough to plow. My current thinking is 10 to 15cm, but this is subject to change.

I will post further updates over the upcoming weekend.

Strong fall storm forecast to dampen Halloween spirits

In keeping with the trend this October, Southern Quebec will have a wet Halloween. Montreal has measured nearly 200mm of rain this month, more than double the normal of 90mm.

A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop over the Ohio Valley on Thursday and deepen rapidly as it  lifts northward across the Great Lakes and into central Ontario. The storm is expected to produce a wide variety of stormy weather from heavy snow north and west of the track, to severe thunderstorms and powerful winds south and east of the low.

Heavy rain is forecast to develop on Thursday across the St. Lawrence Valley, making for a gloomy wet Halloween. Up to 50mm may fall in Montreal, with even more possible south and west of the city.

Showers are expected to develop in Montreal on Thursday afternoon, becoming a steady rain by the evening hours. Heavy rain is forecast overnight into Friday morning, with as much as 50mm (2 inches) expected in Montreal. October has been very wet for the city, with close to 200mm (8 inches) of rain to date. The average rainfall for Montreal is closer to 90mm. The heavy rain will produce rapid rises on rivers and streams in the region. Some minor flooding is possible. As well, tons of leaves will hit the ground, clogging sewers. In addition to the heavy rain, a swath of wet snow is forecast across central Ontario into central Quebec, with as much as 15cm possible in places like Val d'or .

The system will be a very deep fall storm, with strong winds anticipated on Friday. As the storm lifts into central Quebec, southwest winds will approach 100km/h (60 mph) in the St. Lawrence Valley including metro Montreal. Winds this strong are capable of tree damage and power outages. Wind gusts may approach hurricane strength of 120km/h (75mph) across portions of the eastern Great Lakes and northern New York. Numerous watches and advisories have already been issued, and I expect weather warnings will be needed for Montreal and southern Quebec later today as the storm develops.

Temperatures will be very mild on the east side of the low pressure area, reaching into the middle teens in Montreal Wednesday and on Halloween. As the storm moves off to our north temperatures will drop rapidly on Friday, down to 5C (41F). A few flurries are even possible on Friday and Saturday across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.

Remains of tropical storm Olga to soak southern Quebec

The remains of poorly organized tropical storm Olga will move northeast along a frontal boundary, producing a rainy, windy Sunday for southern Ontario and Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)

Tropical storm Olga quickly developed on Friday over the northern Gulf of Mexico and almost immediately became absorbed by a frontal boundary. The system remained rather weak and disorganized, with gusty winds of 90km/h (50mph) and heavy rainfall being the main threats. Isolated coastal flooding was also reported over east Texas and southern Louisiana. As of late Friday evening, what was left of the storm was located over central Louisiana.

Meanwhile high pressure was building into southern Quebec, with a cool, frosty start to the weekend in Montreal. Saturday will remain dry, with sunshine and cool weather forecast. Highs will reach 12C (54F). Clouds will be on the increase early Saturday evening, with temperatures dropping rapidly after sunset and then leveling off around 5C (41F). The remains of Olga will advance northeast on Sunday across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. Expect rain to develop before sunrise over southwestern Quebec, becoming moderate at times, with 20 to 25mm likely. This will add to our already extremely soggy October in Montreal, with 160mm down so far. Normal rainfall is only 89mm for the entire month. Sunday will be cool, with highs struggling to reach 10C (50F). Condtions will be breezy as well, with winds gusting to 50km/h.

Skies will clear on Monday, with very mild highs of 16C (60F). The good weather will be short-lived, as a deepening storm system and cold front will bring rain and even some snow to locations in Ontario and Quebec by the middle portion of next week. The Halloween weather in Montreal looks gloomy and wet for now. Much colder weather will follow this storm system as we head into early November.

Southern Quebec remains between major storms

Heavy snow is making for very difficult travel this morning across southern Manitoba and eastern North Dakota. (NDSP Photo)

The best weather across the country is right here in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. High pressure is dominating the skies, with bright sunshine and above normal temperatures. These conditions will prevail over the weekend, with just a slight chance of a few showers late Saturday night as a cold front crosses the region. Sunshine returns Sunday and Monday, with temperatures just a touch cooler. The high will be near 17C (63F) Friday and Saturday, 13C (55F) Sunday and Monday.

Major Storms
While we have nearly perfect fall weather here in Montreal, major storms are impacting the east coast and across the Prairies and northern plains. A large early winter storm is hammering the Rockies and plains with heavy snow and winds in excess of 80km/h. Up to 3 feet of snow is forecast in sections of North Dakota by Saturday night. Denver, which had highs over 27C (80F) just two days earlier, was well below freezing with heavy snow on Thursday. The snow and wind will spread into southern Manitoba and northwest Ontario today, where winter storm warnings are in effect. Travel will become nearly impossible today across the Dakotas and southern Manitoba, with heavy wet snow and winds up to 100km/h. Power outages and tree damage are likely. The snow will taper off Saturday as the storm weakens and moves into Ontario.

The Atlantic Ocean spills onto North Carolina State Route 12 near Rodanthe, North Carolina on Thursday. A strong Nor'easter located well offshore continues to produce coastal flooding. (OBX Today)

Along the eastern seaboard, a strong Nor'Easter has been blasting coastal regions from North Carolina to New England with heavy rain, strong winds and flooding. Sections of Highway 12 were washed out late Thursday along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The storm will drift northeast over the weekend impacting coastal Nova Scotia with heavy rain, strong winds and high seas.

Strong October thunderstorms produce flooding in Montreal

Strong thunderstorms produced widespread flash flooding during the evening commute in Montreal. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Frost Advisory in effect for southern Quebec.

A slow moving warm front became the focus for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday across southern Quebec and especially here in the Montreal region. Torrential rain fell on the city between 2 and 6pm producing widespread flash flooding across several regions of the city. Wicked lightning and thunder accompanied the storms, more common for Montreal in July than October.

A record breaking 48.4mm of rain fell at Trudeau Airport on Tuesday, surpassing the previous daily high of 34.3mm set in 1945. The rain overwhelmed sewers flooding basements and closing several roads including Highway 20 at Boulevard Angrignon. The flooding and heavy rain made for a long evening commute for many. The storms were part of the same weather system that produced record high temperatures across southern Ontario. Over a dozen record highs were observed on Tuesday, including 31.8C (89F) in Toronto, surpassing the previous record of 29.5C (85F) set in 2002. It was also the warmest high ever recorded in that city in October. While southern Ontario was basking in summer warmth, flurries and temperatures near 0C (32C) were occurring across northwestern portions of the province.

Montreal remained in the cool, moist air to the north of the front for most of the day, finally warming to 17C (63F) by the early evening.

The new section of Highway 20 near Boulevard Angrignon, was turned into a lake during the severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Transport Quebec was forced to close the road in both directions , snarling traffic for hours. (CTV)

First frost
Behind this weather system, much colder air will pour into southern Quebec, with a good chance for the first frost of the season early Wednesday morning. Frost advisories are in effect for the entire region, including metro Montreal, with overnight lows forecast between 0C and 2C (32 to 36F) in the city and as cold as -3C (27F) north of Montreal. Frost is also expected in eastern Ontario away from the St. Lawrence River.