More snow followed by arctic air for Montreal

The mounds of snow are growing across the suburbs of Montreal. Crews have been hard at work carting away the snow from three separate storms over the last week. More is on the way Thursday, with 5 to 10cm expected over southern Quebec. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Another shot of snow is on the way for southern Quebec, adding to the 45 to 55cm that has fallen since last Thursday. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will rapidly move across central New England on Thursday and out into the Atlantic. The storm will be quickly followed by a surge of arctic air late in the day.

Snow will spread into Montreal before the morning commute Thursday, and taper off to flurries in the afternoon. Environment Canada is aiming low for Montreal, calling for 2-4cm total accumulation. I feel it will be more in the order of 5 to 10cm in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, with up to 15cm along the US border. The snow may be enhanced briefly during the morning hours as an arctic cold front cuts across the region. Winds will increase out of the northwest and temperatures will plummet in the afternoon and evening hours. The high Thursday will be reached early in the morning in Montreal, at -1C (30F). The temperatures will fall into the -20s by Friday morning across our region. Most of central Quebec is under extreme cold warnings, for windchill readings near -40C. Montreal can expect windchill values well into the -20s.

Friday will be blustery and cold, with daytime highs struggling to reach -12C (10F). The weekend will be milder once again, but unsettled with plenty of clouds and flurries around. As we head into next week, another winter storm may impact Montreal by Tuesday with measurable snow.

Schools closed - hundreds of accidents from largest winter storm of the season

A major multi-vehicle accident forced the closure of Highway 73 south of Levis, Quebec. (Photo by Jean-Philippe Veilleux via Facebook)

Students were given a rare snow day in Montreal and across most of southern Quebec on Friday, as the biggest snowstorm of the season hit the region. Strong low pressure raced from northern Virginia across interior southern New England and into New Brunswick by days end. The system spread heavy snow across the St. Lawrence Valley, with a storm total of 35cm in Montreal. Elsewhere in the province up to 50cm of snow fell. In Ontario, 25-35cm fell from Ottawa south into the Seaway. A record low barometric pressure for February of 970.2mb, was recorded in the center of the storm over Connecticut. Montreal's lowest pressure was an impressive 979.8mb at 2pm on Friday. The storm could have been even worse, but moved rather quickly across our region.

Conditions were less than ideal within the city limits as well, with rapidly accumulating snow making driving and parking difficult. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Strong winds occurred with the snow, gusting to 61km/h in Montreal and as high as 95km/h in the Quebec City area. The winds produced widespread blowing snow, enough to create white-out conditions, closing several highways in and around Quebec City. Visibility was under 1km for most of the day in Montreal. Provincial Police reported over 1200 separate accidents across the province as a result of the storm, including two multi-vehicle collisions. One occurred on Highway 20 at the Ontario border, forcing the closure of the road and long delays. The other was near Levis involving as many as 35 vehicles. Another major accident occurred on Highway 40 in Vaudreuil during the afternoon commute.

Keeping the streets clear during the storm in Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue. 
(Photo - Ville de Sainte Anne de Bellevue)

Air travel was hit hard by the storm, with hundreds of delays and cancellations reported at Trudeau Airport. The airport in Burlington, Vermont closed Friday for the first time in 20 years. Inter-city buses as well as those within metro Montreal faced long delays.

The storm was far reaching, spreading heavy snow from Texas to Newfoundland. On the warm side of the system, severe weather, tornadoes and flooding stretched from Louisiana to Pennsylvania.

Major snowstorm today for Montreal and southern Quebec

Heavy snow across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec will make travel very difficult today. Since early Thursday, 14cm has fallen at Trudeau Airport, with another 20-30cm possible today. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter Storm Warning in effect for metro Montreal.

Light snow is falling early Friday morning across the region. The snow has been mixed at times with freezing drizzle overnight, but that will end soon, if it has not already. Radar is showing very heavy snow to our south and west, with rates of 1-2cm per hour expected for Montreal this morning into early afternoon. As of 5am Friday, Montreal had already received 14cm of fresh snow.

Rapidly strengthening low pressure will move from Virginia across southern New England today and into Atlantic Canada tonight. A swath of heavy snow is expected to develop over the St. Lawrence Valley early Friday morning, and persist into the late afternoon. Near blizzard conditions are possible across southern Quebec as increasing northeast winds up to 60km/h develop today. The combination of heavy snow and blowing snow will make travel difficult today across all our regions. For that reason, most major school boards in metro Montreal and across southern Quebec, have cancelled classes for the day. Some flight cancellations have been reported at Trudeau Airport, so check you flight status before heading out to the airport.

A major snowstorm will impact the St. Lawrence Valley today as well as southern Quebec, New England, and Atlantic Canada. (AccuWeather.com)

The snow will taper off to flurries after midnight tonight, with total storm accumulations of 30 to 50cm expected. The high temperature of -5C has been reached already, with temperatures steady or falling today to an overnight low of -15C, with windchill readings in the -20s.

Extended winter storm for southern Quebec

Deepening low pressure is forecast to move across New England late Thursday and Friday, with 15 to 25cm of snow possible across southern Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)

Special Weather Statement in effect for Montreal.
Winter Storm Watch posted for Sherbrooke and the Townships.
Winter Storm Warning in effect for northern New York and Vermont.

Much colder air settled across the St. Lawrence Valley on Thursday after several days of above normal temperatures. The high on Thursday was -2C here on L'Ile Perrot, reached at midnight. The mercury has been falling all day to our current temperature of -9.6C. Temperatures should level off  by midnight as clouds thicken up in advance of our next winter storm.

Overnight an elongated warm front will lift northward towards southern Ontario and Quebec. Precipitation should begin overspreading the region by daybreak from the US border into Montreal. Snow will be steady during the morning hours with 5 to 10cm expected by late afternoon in Montreal. The snow will likely impact both the morning and evening commute in the region. Spotty freezing rain may mix in along the US border, but it should be light.

Strengthening low pressure will move from the southern US into New England on Friday with additional snowfall expected. Montreal will get a brief break in precipitation Thursday evening, before more snow, heavy at times arrives overnight into Friday morning. The second batch of snow will be intense at times, with an additional 10-15cm possible for Montreal. Storm totals may exceed 30cm over the Eastern Townships, and 40cm over northern New York and Vermont. Lesser amounts of 10-20cm are expected across eastern Ontario.

As the low pressure deepens and moves northeast into Atlantic Canada, wind speeds will increase across southern Quebec, up to 50km/h at times. Gusty winds will persist into Friday, with areas of blowing snow possible. Temperatures throughout this storm will remain below freezing in Montreal. The special weather statement currently in effect for Montreal may be upgraded to a weather warning by Thursday morning.

A quiet end to a warm January in Montreal

The Niagara region during the epic Blizzard of 1977. This week marks the 43rd anniversary of that storm, back when winter had bite. In stark contrast, Montreal is about to finish one of the warmest Januaries on record.

High pressure is cresting over southern Quebec on Thursday, with clear and seasonable weather expected for Montreal. January 2020 is just about done, and it was a warm one to say the least. The average temperature through January 29, was -5.5C (22.1F), well above the normal of -9.7C (14.5F). We have recorded 13 days above the freezing point, remarkable for Montreal in January, and nearly double the long-term average. Officially at Trudeau Airport, there were no overnight lows below -20C (-4F). The long-term average from 1981-2010 is 7.6 days.

Our weekend storm is no more. The low in question will travel well offshore, sparing southern Quebec. A decent storm is likely in Atlantic Canada and Newfoundland. A western system may bring a dusting of snow to Ontario and Quebec on Sunday. (AccuWeather.com)

As far as precipitation is concerned, snowfall was relatively normal, with 50 to 60cm falling across metro Montreal, the normal is 49.5cm. The snow was scattered in nature, with no real large snowstorms. Rainfall was well above the normal of 27.3mm, with 50.0mm falling. The record-breaking rainstorm of January 11 was responsible for 44mm of that total. The mild weather has stretched across most of eastern Canada and the US. The Great Lakes are nearly ice-free, with only 6.6% of the surface frozen. Lake Erie and Ontario are virtually ice-free, with less than 2% coverage. The St. Lawrence River has very little ice as well, and what there is, is thin and dangerous.

Looking ahead to February, more of the same can be expected to start the month at least. Temperatures will be above normal, with just a slight chance for some flurries Saturday and late Sunday. No major storms are on the horizon at this time. The coastal low we were anticipating may affect Montreal earlier in the week, will remain offshore, impacting Atlantic Canada.

As the sun begins to strengthen in February and the days get longer, winter begins the epic battle to hold off spring. There is still plenty of winter to go, with February and March historically producing our biggest storms in Montreal. There are indications that the February will eventually turn colder, but that was the same scenario we were looking at for January, and it never materialized. Let's see what the groundhog has to say this Sunday, he may have better luck than me!

Complicated weekend storm for Montreal and Ottawa

Another weekend, another messy winter storm for southern Quebec. A special weather statement is in effect for Montreal, for a mix of rain, wet snow and freezing rain through Sunday.

This has not been an easy winter to predict for both professional and amateur meteorologists alike. For instance, I was convinced that once January turned colder, that frigid air was with us well into February. Now here we sit Friday afternoon with the temperature at 1C (34F), the third consecutive day above freezing. It seems that cold air this winter has been fleeting at best, the bulk of the arctic air trapped across northern Canada, with just an intrusion or two into the western provinces.

For this reason, the storm systems have been extremely challenging to forecast, especially the precipitation type. This weekends winter storm is no different. Right up to this mornings computer model runs, the various forecast scenarios have been all over the place, this with less than 24 hours to go before the storms arrival. So here goes my best effort at breaking down the weekend weather.

Precipitation should change to snow late Saturday, with 10cm expected in metro Montreal by Sunday morning. (AccuWeather.com)

A complex area of low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes and just south of Montreal on Sunday, while a second low develops off the southern New England coast. Clouds will increase early Saturday morning, followed by some scattered light rain or freezing rain into the early evening hours. Temperatures will be marginal at best for frozen precipitation in Montreal, with the mercury close to 2C (36F). Overnight Saturday into Sunday, slightly colder air should be pulled into the region, with precipitation becoming predominately snow for Montreal and points north and west including Ottawa. Precipitation may remain liquid south of Montreal. On Sunday, look for a mix or wet snow and perhaps some rain. If the precipitation remains as snow, most areas will receive between 10 and 20cm. Any region that mixes in with rain or freezing rain, will see less accumulation.

The temperatures will remain either side of 0C (32F), from late Saturday into Sunday. By no means is this forecast set in stone. I expect we will see fluctuations in the type and quantity of precipitation forecast. A change in the temperature of a degree or two either way, or any alteration in the storms track, will result in very different weather here in the St. Lawrence Valley. Skies will clear out on Monday, with temperatures remaining above normal.

Historic Newfoundland blizzard was meteorologically epic

A typical scene in St. John's, Newfoundland after a fierce coastal storm dumped 76.2cm of snow in 24 hours on the city. (CBC)

By now most of you are aware of the monster storm that hammered eastern Newfoundland on Friday and Saturday. The powerful ocean storm drew off the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, while Arctic air fuelled the system from the northwest. The storm had humble beginnings, bringing 5 to 10cm of snow to parts of Ontario and Quebec last Wednesday, before moving off the Maine coast on Thursday. It then blossomed into a major Atlantic winter storm, a white hurricane if you will, deepening to a remarkable 954mb low. That barometric pressure is comparable to a category 3 hurricane.

Above: Transportation and Works Newfoundland plows having a difficult time on Pitts Memorial Drive, Saturday, January 18. The four lane highway was covered in snowdrifts reaching over 15 feet high (Transportation and Works Newfoundland Photo)

Many of you have likely viewed the photos on news and social media of the mountains of snow in St John's, up to the rooftops in many cases. The amount of snow was incredible, 76.2cm in 24 hours in St. John's. That smashed the cities record of 68.4cm set on April 5, 1999. Even more fell in other parts of the Avalon Peninsula, including 93cm at Mount Pearl. That was just one part of this ferocious storm, the other was the relentless wind. We may never know just how strong it was in St. John's, because the anemometer failed at the airport. Before it did however, winds gusted up to 134km/h (83mph). Forecasters estimate the wind may have exceeded 150km/h in St. John's. The wind was remarkable across the Avalon, reaching 171km/h (106mph) at Green Island and Fortune Bay. In St John's, wind gusts exceeded 100km/h for 15 consecutive hours.

A spectacular NOAA satellite image of the storm exploding off the Newfoundland coast on Friday, January 17, 2020.

The storm also produced wave heights along the Atlantic coast of over 15 feet. The combination of wind and snow produced blizzard conditions for almost 21 hours. Visibility at best was few metres and near zero most of the time. A state of emergency was declared across the Avalon, and remains in effect for many locations including St. John's on Monday. Roads, the airport, businesses and schools remain closed. The Telegram Newspaper in St. John's has halted printing and distribution until the state of emergency is lifted.

Firefighters battle near-zero visibility in St. John's on Friday, January 17, 2020

Close to 300 Canadian Armed Forces personal are on the ground Monday, helping weary first responders and public works employees deal with the aftermath of the storm. In some cases, 15 foot (4.5 metre) drifts are blocking roadways, delaying in the efforts to restore power. Thousands of customers were in the dark as a result of the storm.

More snow fell late Sunday, before the temperature nudged above the freezing mark. Windy and colder weather is forecast this week, but thankfully a break in the parade of storms the region has had this winter. To date, St. John's has recorded an amazing 248cm of snow this winter. By comparison, Montreal has received 110cm.

Snowy weekend for Montreal

The Thursday morning commute in Montreal was a slow one, with 5cm of snow falling in the city. Closer to 10cm occurred south of Montreal. Numerous accidents were reported by provincial police, especially off-island to the south and west. (Valley Weather Photo)

After a rather mild December and early January, winter weather has started to spread across the country in earnest. Early Friday morning, temperatures are around -20C (-4F) across southern Quebec, along with a gusty northwest wind. Windchill values are as cold as -30C. The cold air poured into the region behind low pressure, that produced 5 to 10cm of fluffy snow across southern Quebec on Thursday.

High pressure will dominate the day in Montreal, with abundant sunshine, but cold temperatures, the high will be -14C (7F). Friday night will be mostly clear and cold once again, with overnight lows of -20C. On Saturday, clouds will increase rapidly as strengthening low pressure travels down the St. Lawrence Valley. Expect snow to spread across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec during the afternoon and evening hours. The snow could be heavy at times overnight into Sunday morning. At this time, amounts will remain below warning levels for Montreal, but could approach them in Ottawa. A general 10 to 15cm is possible across southern Quebec, with as much as 25cm in eastern Ontario. Winds will be rather gusty throughout the storm, up to 50km/h. Expect areas of blowing and drifting snow. Travel will be impacted across the region. The snow should taper to flurries on Sunday. Temperatures will remain cold throughout the period and into next week.

The cold is just a small sample of what western Canada has been experiencing over the last week. Overnight lows have been in the -30s and -40s across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with windchill values as cold as the -50s. The cold has even seeped in coastal regions of British Columbia, where Vancouver has received more snow in January, 34.5cm, than Montreal 23.6cm.

It appears the colder weather is with us for a little while now, certainly to close out January and even into the early portions of February. This is in stark contrast to the above normal temperatures that have dominated Montreal weather since the start of December.

58,000 without power in Quebec from wind and ice

While we were prepared for the worst, I was pleased to see mostly sleet (ice pellets) had fallen on Ile Perrot overnight, with very little ice accretion. Freezing rain is falling this morning, mixed with snow and ice pellets. Precipitation should taper of this afternoon. (ValleyWeather)

Over 58,000 Quebec homes and businesses are without power this morning after a night of freezing rain and strong winds. Most of the outages are in the Monteregie south of Montreal. The island of Montreal is in decent shape so far. We caught a huge break on Saturday, as mild air held on a few hours longer producing more liquid rather than frozen precipitation. Since the changeover around 10pm Saturday evening, most of the freezing rain has been mixed with ice pellets,which does not stick to trees or power lines. The wind has been gusting to 60km/h at times from the northeast.

Hydro Quebec has more than 100 teams on the road Sunday morning to restore power as quickly as possible. Power outages have also been reported in central and eastern Ontario. The precipitation is expected to continue through the middle portion of the day in Montreal, with another 10 to 15mm of freezing rain possible, especially south of the city. Some sleet and light snow will mix in as well. Conditions should start to improve later this afternoon. Winds will diminish as well by this evening. The temperature will remain nearly steady near -5C (23F) today in Montreal, dropping to -11 (12F) by Monday morning. 

The massive winter storm creating the heavy rain and ice in Quebec, stretched from Texas to Atlantic Canada. The system not only produced flooding rains in Ontario and Quebec, but heavy snow to the north and west of the track and deadly tornadoes to the south. Along the US east coast on Saturday, a surge of warm air generated by the same storm, resulted in over 60 record highs, some dating back to the 1890's.

The heavy rain Saturday produced plenty of localized flooding across the region. Montreal received a record breaking 44.2mm at Trudeau Airport, crushing the previous daily record of 18.6mm set in 2008. All that rainfall is now ice, with a current temperature of -6C (21F) in Montreal, down from Saturday's high of 7C (45F). If you head today be extremely careful as all surfaces are covered in snow and ice.

Major freezing rain event for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

The heaviest freezing rain will occur Saturday night in a narrow band across central Ontario and extreme southern Quebec. Within this zone up to 25mm (1 inch) of ice is possible. (AccuWeather.com) 

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.
Ice Storm Warning for the St. Lawrence Valley, northern New York and Vermont

Travel not recommended tonight in southern Quebec and Ontario. Plan for power outages.

A frontal boundary lies just north of Montreal early Saturday morning, the dividing line between very warm air to our south and arctic air to the north. Strong low pressure will ride along the front over the next 12 to 24 hours, spreading heavy rain and eventually freezing rain across the region.

Radar early Saturday morning is showing heavier rainfall moving into southwestern Quebec. Rainfall will continue all day, with as much as 25mm in Montreal. The rain will lead to isolated flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Temperatures today will be very mild, reaching up to 10C (50F).

The frontal boundary will begin to shift south early this evening across southern Quebec, ushering in much colder air at the surface, while the warm air remains aloft. This will set the stage for several hours of heavy freezing rain. Exactly where the boundary sets up, will establish who receives the most ice accretion. At this time is appears the heaviest frozen precipitation will occur across the southern portions of metro Montreal south to the US border, and along the St. Lawrence Valley towards Brockville and Kingston. Some locations within this band will receive up to 30mm of freezing rain. This is more than enough to take down tree branches and power lines.

Regions further north of this zone, including Laval, will cool off very quickly and switch over to ice pellets (sleet) or snow. The temperature will fall quickly down to -7C (19F) overnight in Montreal, and remain fairly steady Sunday. Winds will pick up as well overnight and Sunday, gusting as high as 70km/h in southern Quebec. The wind could take down ice covered branches and power lines on Sunday.

The weather will improve late Sunday and Monday, with just a few flurries forecast along with seasonable highs of -6C. Much colder air arrives late next week, remaining for the balance of January.

Dangerous freezing rain event for Montreal and Ottawa

A narrow band of heavy freezing rain will set up along a frontal boundary Saturday into Sunday. Montreal has the potential to receive a significant amount of frozen precipitation. (AccuWeather.com)

Special Weather Statement: Montreal and Ottawa.
Winter Storm Watch: St. Lawrence Valley

A period of heavy freezing rain is forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley including Montreal late Saturday into Sunday.

A very dangerous weather situation is setting up for the upcoming weekend across a portion of Ontario and southern Quebec. A warm front is lifting north of Montreal Friday morning, with temperatures expected to rise rapidly today up to 5C (41F). A few flurries or spotty showers are expected today. Heavy rain changing to freezing rain is likely Saturday.

Ice Storm
On Saturday the aforementioned front will begin to settle south once again, with arctic air located just to the north and a surge of record breaking tropical air to the south or Montreal. Along the front, low pressure will lift north, accompanied by abundant moisture. Heavy rain will develop across the region, with as much as 25mm (1 inch) expected. Saturday evening, cold air is expected to bleed back into the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley as well as extreme northern Vermont and New York, with rain changing to freezing rain. Ice accumulations may be significant, with more than 25mm possible by Sunday morning. This amount of ice accretion will result in tree and power line damage. Expect power outages. Strong winds are also expected on Sunday, up to 70km/h in Montreal, which will only add to the damage potential. The precipitation will taper off Sunday afternoon.

The temperatures will be wild this weekend, possibly reaching a record high 10C (50F) in Montreal on Saturday. The previous record was 9.4C (49F) set in 1975. However the mercury will fall just a quickly Saturday night once the cold front slips south of Montreal, down to -7C (19F). The temperature range will be very dramatic across a very small region Saturday evening. Travel will become extremely difficult

Now is the time to plan for power outages. Charge your devices, prepare your home and make sure you have a full tank of gas. There is still some uncertainty in the path of the storm and where the freezing rain will set up. Hopefully Montreal ends up with more liquid precipitation or sleet, but at the moment, it is looking like freezing rain.

I will update the forecast and any warnings throughout the event.

Significant winter storm possible for Montreal this weekend

Significant amounts of rain, freezing rain and snow are possible this weekend in Ontario and Quebec.

Expect a temperature roller coaster ride over the next few days, with a significant winter storm likely by the weekend for parts of southern Ontario and Quebec.

A cold front has crossed southern Quebec early Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a frosty 24 hours. Gusty winds up to 50km/h will accompany dropping temperatures into Thursday morning, with lows round -15C (5F) expected in Montreal. Thursday will see increasing clouds as a very complex winter storm begins to take shape across the central portion of the US.

Montreal will see increasing temperatures on Thursday as a warm front lifts across the St. Lawrence Valley. The low will be reached early in the evening, with the mercury climbing through Friday morning, all the way up to 7C (45F). Arctic high pressure will retreat just to our north, setting up a very tight temperature gradient across southern Quebec and Ontario. This will set the stage for a wide variety of precipitation this weekend.

A cold front will lie very close to Montreal early Saturday morning, with strong low pressure expected to ride along the front late in the day. This system will have abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture accompanying it, with as much as 75mm (3 inches) of precipitation possible in some locations across southern Ontario and Quebec. The forecast difficulty lies in the exact temperature when the influx of moisture arrives.

At this time rain is forecast on Saturday in Montreal, changing to freezing rain or snow late in the day. Temperatures will drop rapidly once the front settles south of the city. Gusty winds are also forecast with this storm. Some locations in the Montreal region may receive significant amounts of freezing rain or snow.

As the exact placement of the front becomes more clear, weather watches and warnings will likely be issued. If you have any travel plans this weekend, pay close attention to the latest forecasts.

A snowy and icy end to the decade for Montreal

It took until New Year's Eve for the ground to turn white in Montreal. Over 15cm of snow fell across southern Quebec on Tuesday, accompanied by ice pellets, freezing rain and 50km/h winds. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Montreal received over 15cm of snow late Monday into early Tuesday as a winter storm moved across the Great Lakes and into Quebec. The same storm delivered over 22 hours of freezing rain to Ottawa and portions of eastern Ontario. Montreal also received about 7mm of freezing rain, with more towards Vaudreuil and Valleyfield. The freezing rain resulted in numerous accidents and scattered power outages. Numerous flights were cancelled at Trudeau Airport. Joliette was the provincial winner with this storm, measuring 28cm of  fresh snow.

Winds gusted over 100km/h as the low pressure moved across southern Ontario. While Montreal remained on the cold side of the system, warm air surged into southern Ontario. Toronto reached a record breaking high of 10.2C (50F) on Monday, surpassing the previous high of  7.2C (45F) established in 1965.

Light snow continues to fall across southern Quebec this New Year's Eve, along with very mild temperatures. Another 2 to 5cm is possible overnight. Mild air will persist throughout this week and into the upcoming weekend. Another round of mixed precipitation is likely by Friday across southern Quebec. Cold air will finally return by the end of the weekend and into next week, with more opportunities for accumulating snow.

Have a safe and happy new year, see you in the new decade and thanks for reading!

Freezing rain covering southern Quebec and eastern Ontario

Road conditions are poor today across southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario, especially along Highways 20 and 401, shown above. 
(Photo via Twitter@carolin3aklor)

Freezing rain and snowfall warnings in effect for southern Quebec.

Travel is extremely dangerous Monday on highways outside of Montreal due to a combination of freezing rain, snow and strong winds. This is especially true south and west of the city.

A complex weather system consisting of an elongated warm front as well as low pressure over Michigan and a secondary low developing off the New England coast, will send waves of precipitation over southern Quebec and eastern Ontario over the next 36 hours.

The winter storm forecast for southern Quebec is turning out to be more ice than snow at this time. Temperatures are well below freezing as rain continues to fall Monday morning. This is not a surprise to me as I thought the snow amounts were overdone for our region. That being said, the the freezing rain should change to snow this afternoon and continue into Tuesday. Snowfall accumulations for Montreal, should be in the 10-15cm range, along with 5 to 10mm of ice.

Freezing rain mixed with ice pellets have been falling here on Ile Perrot since 7a.m. this morning. Further southwest, ice amounts are impressive with close to 10mm in Cornwall. The freezing rain has resulted in power outages across eastern Ontario, with 18,000 Hydro One customers in the dark as of 10a.m. Hydro Quebec is reporting 3500 without power, but the storm is only a few hours old in Quebec.

Precipitation is forecast to persist into New Years Eve. The weather should improve by New Years Day.

Strong winter storm to impact Ontario and Quebec

An icy landscape Saturday morning after 6mm of freezing rain fell on Friday across metro Montreal. The ice resulted in numerous accidents and an upswing in broken bones at local emergency rooms. Urgences Sante reported  dozens of calls for ice related injuries across the Montreal region. (Valley Weather)

A complex winter storm will move across the Great Lakes and into Ontario over the next 48 hours. This system will bring a wide mix of precipitation from heavy snow to ice pellets, freezing rain and eventually rain for some locations. The hardest hit regions will be from central Ontario into southwestern Quebec.

An approaching warm front from the southwest will run into slightly colder air trapped at the surface, as was the case on Friday. Freezing rain is forecast to develop this afternoon and this evening along the 401 corridor from Kingston to the Quebec border and north into the Ottawa Valley. Some locations may receive up to 20mm in ice accretion. This amount could easily result in widespread tree damage and power outages.

An ice storm is likely across eastern Ontario into extreme southwest Quebec and the Adirondacks of New York.. Up to 20mm of ice is possible, which would result in power outages. (AccuWeather.com)

In Montreal, the forecast is a little more difficult at this time. Southwestern Quebec will be right on the line between freezing rain and heavy snow. At this time, 15 to 25cm of snow is possible late tonight into Monday, along with strong winds out of the northeast, up to 50km/h. A slight shift in the warm front would bring heavy freezing rain or ice pellets (sleet) into Montreal.

Montreal will remain on the dividing line between heavy snow and freezing rain. This is subject to change over the next 12 to 24 hours. If precipitation remains as all snow, over 20cm is possible for the city. Avoid any travel Monday if at all possible. (AccuWeather.com)

At this time, freezing rain warnings are in effect in central and eastern Ontario. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are posted for northern New York and Vermont. Montreal remains under a special weather statement, but warnings will likely be issued for some regions of Quebec by later this afternoon.

All travel in southwest Quebec and southern Ontario should be avoided overnight and Monday if at all possible. The precipitation will changeover to light snow across all regions on New Years Eve. Temperatures will remain mild into the first week of the new year, with the arctic air trapped over northern Canada. Daytime highs will continue well above normal, from -1C to 2C through the end of the upcoming week. Overnight lows will range from -5C to 0C during the period. Colder air will arrive by the second week of the month.

Freezing rain followed by another storm late Sunday

A stronger winter storm will approach the Great lakes on Sunday, with widespread rain, freezing rain and snow expected. Stronger winds are also likely in Montreal with this next storm. (AccuWeather.com)

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for Montreal.
Freezing rain will begin within the next hour across southwestern Quebec.

A warm front is currently lifting across eastern Ontario this evening, along with a push a milder air and some light precipitation. A mix of snow and freezing rain is expected in Montreal this evening into the overnight hours before changing to showers Friday morning. A freezing rain warning is in effect for southern Quebec and parts of eastern Ontario, including metro Montreal and Ottawa. Amounts of 2 to 5mm of freezing precipitation are possible. Roads will become very slippery and dangerous this evening, especially at the onset of the precipitation. Travel conditions will improve Friday morning.

Northeast winds are trapping colder air here in the St. Lawrence Valley, with the temperature currently at the high for the day of -4.4C. Temperatures will rise overnight, going above freezing by daybreak, reaching a high of 4C (39F) Friday. A cold front will move across the region late Friday, expect slightly cooler air for Saturday and Sunday, with daytime highs near 0C (32F).

Winter Storm late Sunday
A stronger storm system will arrive in the central Great Lakes by Sunday evening, once again travelling west of Montreal. Another warm surge of air is expected, with mixed precipitation possibly changing to rain. This forecast is a little more complicated than the current one, with a second low forecast to develop in southern New England. The second system may keep colder air trapped in both the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley well into Monday. The result may be heavier snow or perhaps an extended period of freezing rain. If you have any travel plans late Sunday and Monday, pay close attention to the latest forecasts and any watches and warnings that may be issued.

Another green Christmas for Montreal

The winter of 1970-1971 was historic in Montreal, with over 50cm of snow on the ground by Christmas Day 1970.

Whether you like it or not, there will be little to no snow on the ground for Christmas morning in Montreal. With the temperature hovering around 7C (45F) Monday afternoon, most of the snow is now gone, with the exception of a few dirty patches here and there. We did not have much to begin with, as only 13.4 cm has fallen this month at Trudeau Airport, the normal should be close to 50cm. We had more snow on the ground across most of Canada in November than we do now. Many major cities across southern Canada will have no snow this holiday season.

As I write this, I am looking out my office window at basically a brown landscape. This seems to becoming more normal with each passing year, far from the winters of my youth in the 1970s.

Taking a brief look back at the stats over the last decade indicates a sad reality for those who prefer a white Christmas. The average amount of snow on the ground on December 25th since 2010 has been a paltry 6.0cm in Montreal. On four occasions, 2014, 2015, 2018 and again this year, we have had no snow. According to Environment Canada, a white Christmas is defined as 2cm or more on the ground as of 7am, December 25th.

The most snow on the ground in Montreal on Christmas Day was 51cm during the historic winter of 1970-1971 when a total of 380cm fell for the season. In December 1970, as much as 64cm of snow was on the ground. Speaking of the 70's, we had a white Christmas each year from 1970 through 1978. In 1979, the streak came to an end, with 21.3mm of rain falling on the 25th.

As far as 2019 is concerned, mild weather Monday will be replaced by much cooler air for Tuesday through Thursday. Skies will be partly cloudy, with temperatures ranging from -9C to -12C for lows and -2C to -5C for daytime highs. Travel conditions will be ideal through Thursday. The next change for precipitation arrives overnight into Friday morning along a warm front. A mix of rain, freezing rain and snow is possible, but amounts should be fairly light.

Strong low pressure to impact southern Ontario & Quebec

Strengthening low pressure will move from the middle Atlantic region into southern Quebec by tonight. Very mild air will result in rain for much of southern Quebec. Much colder air returns late tonight and Sunday, with perhaps a few centimetres of snow. (AccuWeather.com)

Widespread rainfall and freezing rain warnings are in effect early Saturday morning as deepening low pressure lifts north from Maryland towards the Champlain Valley later today. The storm is carrying abundant moisture with it, with up to 25mm of rain forecast across the region. Temperatures are hovering near the freezing point this morning, with 0.9C here on Ile Perrot, with 5mm of rain falling so far. They will warm today as gusty southeast winds develop, up to 5C (41F).

The storm will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Vermont/Quebec border late tonight and moves into eastern Quebec Sunday. As it does so, much colder air will begin to wrap around the backside of the system and into Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Rain should begin to change to snow late this afternoon in Ontario and tonight in Montreal. Snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 3cm in Montreal, to as much as 10cm in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley of Ontario and New York. Roads will become slick as temperatures head below freezing and down to -7C by Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the colder temperatures, winds will increase out of the west and northwest, up to 70km/h into Sunday.

Further north and west across portions of central Quebec, heavy snow and freezing rain are forecast with as much as 30cm expected. Travel conditions are extremely poor today in those regions.

Precipitation will taper off to flurries early Sunday, along with blustery and colder conditions. The colder air is with us now through Christmas Day, with a few chances for light snow, but no major storms on the horizon for Montreal at this time.

Warm and wet storm on the horizon for Montreal

Last weekends storm just missed Montreal, but was one for the record books in central New York state, with 57cm falling in Albany, New York. 

Montreal is on the northern edge of a clipper system passing across southern Ontario into upstate New York early Friday. If thats sounds familiar it is because the storm is following the same track of last weekends epic snowstorm. This system is much weaker, spreading 5 to 10cm of snow along its path, with just a few snow showers across southwestern Quebec. Areas along a line from Vaudreuil through to the Ontario border and points south may pic up a quick 2cm of snow on Friday.

The storm that missed Montreal last weekend dumped up to 2 feet of snow across central New York and southern New England. It also created treacherous road conditions in southern Ontario, with three fatal accidents reported. Albany, New York measured its eighth largest snowstorm on record, with 22.6 inches of snow (57.4cm), falling over a 48 hour period. It was that cities largest snowstorm since the March 1993 superstorm. Seven New York counties were placed under a state of emergency, with schools closed for two days and thousands of flight cancelations. Hundreds of accidents were reported across the southern tier of New York into the Mohawk and Hudson Valley

For a comparison, Montreal had 40cm during the March 1993 superstorm, but not one flake fell this time. Snow fell up to and along the US/Canada border as well as in Ontario, the Gaspe and Atlantic Canada.

Warm Winter Storm
The next system on the horizon will a warm one despite the cold weekend ahead for Montreal. On Monday, much warmer air will surge into the St. Lawrence Valley, as a strengthening storm moves across the Great Lakes. Rain is forecast in Montreal, with perhaps some spotty freezing rain at the onset. Precipitation amounts will vary across the region, with a general 10-20mm of rain likely. Temperatures will be very warm early next week, 5 to 7C (40-45F) Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front arrives late Tuesday night, with much colder and windy weather expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet down to -11C (12F) on Wednesday. Any leftover rain will change to light snow before ending. Briefly looking beyond next week, another big storm is likely by the middle of the month. Depending on which model you prefer, this could be our white Christmas. Time will tell.

Temperatures across the southern portion of Quebec were frigid this November.

One final note, November 2019 was the coldest on record at Trudeau Airport, dating back to 1941. The mean monthly temperatures was -1.4C, well below the normal of 2.5C. We also threw in 32cm of snow, compared to the normal of 19cm.

Major winter storm to miss Montreal

Montreal will remain on the northern edge of a winter storm that has spread snow from California to Maine. (AccuWeather)

Cold weather will prevail through Sunday across southern Quebec, as the region remains on the northern edge of a strong winter storm. The storm in question has been producing heavy snow, strong winds and severe weather from California into the Great Lakes and across the deep south, during the busy Thanksgiving travel week in the US.

Sunday will be no different as low pressure moves towards Lake Ontario, while a second stronger storm develops off the New Jersey coast and slowly moves into Atlantic Canada. The combination of the two storm systems, will spread heavy snow and freezing rain from the upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, Ontario and across the northeast.

Montreal can expect increasing clouds this afternoon along with gusty northeast winds up to 40km/h. Temperatures will be cold with, with a high of -5C (23F). Only a few flurries are expected from the storm, with the best chance for that along the Ontario and New York borders.

If you have any travel plans along Highway 401 towards Toronto, Ottawa or south along Interstate 87 into New York, Boston or New England, expect poor conditions with snow and gusty winds. Snow accumulations of 5 to 20cm are forecast in Ontario today, with 10-30cm across New York and New England this afternoon and Monday.

On Monday, skies should clear in Montreal, along with near normal temperatures, with a high of -4C (25F) and a low of -10C (14F). The next system arrives by Wednesday, with a chance for some light snow in Montreal.

There is more snow on the ground in many parts of southern California on December 1st, than there is in southern Quebec. (Caltrans Photo)

Montreal recorded 31.6cm of snow at Trudeau Airport for the month of November. Despite this, only patches remain on the ground. In reality, there is more snow on the ground in several location in southern California, New Mexico and Arizona than in Montreal.