Unsettled, humid weather to persist into next week for Montreal

A towering thunderstorm developing in the tropical airmass across the West Island of Montreal during Thursday afternoon. (ValleyWeather Photo)

A heat warning remains in effect for metro Montreal through Saturday. The combination of warm temperatures and high humidity will make it rather uncomfortable for outdoor activities.

A weak cold front is in the process of moving across southern Quebec early Friday afternoon. The front is expected to produce some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the bulk of the activity occurring south and east of the city. The front will wash out over the next 24 hours, leaving us in the same warm and humid airmass well into next week.

Several rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms are forecast right through Tuesday. Most of the time the weather will be dry, but when the storms do occur, they have the potential to produce torrential rain locally, with the risk for flooding.

A flood watch is in effect for northeast New York and Vermont Friday, where flooding has already occurred this week. Conditions have been fairly dry in the Montreal region, with only a few millimetres falling at my home on Ile Perrot this week. Other parts of southern Quebec, New York and New England have reported much higher amounts, mainly in areas that have received persistent thunderstorm activity.

Thursday was suffocating, with a high of 32.5C (90F) in Montreal, with humidex readings close to 40C. Montreal was actually one of the "cooler" locations, with many spots reaching into the middle 30s. The temperature remained warm overnight in the low to middle 20s. The heat prompted a record consumption of power across Quebec. During the afternoon hours, at the peak of daytime heating, a high tension line from Laval to the West Island of Montreal failed, plunging over 200,000 Hydro-Quebec customers into the dark and without air conditioning on one of the warmest days of the year. Traffic lights were out and some intersections became chaotic during the afternoon commute. Most of the power was restored by 5pm. 

Temperatures this weekend will be slightly cooler, in the upper 20s as a result of abundant cloud cover, but the muggy weather will persist.

Warm and humid weather week ahead for southern Quebec

Stationary thunderstorms over northwestern Clinton County, New York, along the Quebec border, produced flash flooding on Saturday night into Sunday. Up to 200mm of rain is estimated to have fallen in just a few hours. Above, the Great Chazy River flooded the Blue Haven Campground in Ellenburg Depot, NY, forcing evacuations. (Photo courtesy Tammy Arbour)

The coming week will be very warm and humid in Montreal.

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible on Monday and Tuesday, with southern Quebec remaining entrenched in a warm, humid and unstable airmass. Temperatures will be warm to even hot all week, with highs ranging from the upper 20s into the low 30s across the region. Factoring in the humidity, and conditions will feel oppressive at times in the middle to upper 30s. Little relief is expected during the overnight hours, with lows around 20C (68F). 

A flooded home along US Route 11 near Ellenburg, New York on Sunday, July 2.  Ellenburg is 100 kilometres southwest of Montreal. (WCAX)

Over the weekend, strong thunderstorms developed along a warm front Saturday morning, with thousands of lightning strike observed as the storms moved across the Island of Montreal and Laval. A lightning strike in Laval-sur-le-Lac ignited a fire damaging a two storey residence. Heavy rainfall and hail up to 3cm was also reported. The rain was much needed here on Île Perrot, where 34mm fell Saturday (I recorded only 49mm for the entire month of June). At Trudeau Airport, 30.8mm was reported, with 55mm in both Riguad and St. Anicet.

Further south, nearly stationary "back building" thunderstorms dumped between 100-200mm (4-8 inches) of rain across northeastern New York State, specifically Clinton and Franklin Counties. There are radar estimates of even more locally. The torrential rain, falling in just a few hours Saturday night, produced severe flash flooding along the Great Chazy River. A friend was staying at the Blue Haven Campground in Ellenburg, New York, where evacuations were ordered in the wee of hours of Sunday morning. Numerous swift water rescues were carried out. Several homes and businesses are flooded as well, with numerous roads closed and washouts reported. More storms are forecast for the same area Monday.

Extensive flooding from thunderstorms at Blue Haven Campground in Ellenburg Depot, New York. (Tammy Arbour)

Back in Quebec, flash flooding was reported in the Saguenay region after 130mm of rain fell Saturday. In Rivière-Éternité, a state of emergency has been declared after flash flooding in that community forced more than 200 residents to be evacuated. The SQ and firefighters are searching for at  least two individuals missing after their cars were swept away in the flood waters.

Strong thunderstorms for southern Quebec through midnight

Severe thunderstorms are possible in Montreal through midnight. (ValleyWeather Photo)

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for metro Montreal - Tornado Watch for Eastern Ontario

A line of very strong thunderstorms is moving across eastern Ontario and western Quebec Saturday afternoon. The storms are bubbling up in the very warm and humid airmass along a cold front. Widespread severe thunderstorm watches are in effect, as well as a tornado watch across eastern Ontario.

Very dangerous frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail and even an isolated tornado is possible within the strongest cells.

More recently a tornado warning was issued for the Papineau region, for a storm showing rotation near Lac-Simon in western Quebec.

The storms will vary in intensity and persist for most of the evening hours before weakening after midnight.

A line of storms early Saturday morning produced thousands of lightning strikes across southwestern Quebec, with an almost constant rumble of thunder for over an hour.

Smoke set to return to Montreal for 24 hours

Dense smoke over the St. Lawrence River in Dorion last Sunday, June 25. The smoke is set to return Thursday for at least 24 hours across southern Quebec. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Smog and air quality warnings are in effect across our entire region. Smoke from the Quebec wildfires will return across the Ottawa Valley this morning and into southern Quebec by late in the day. This is in response to an upper level low and cold front moving off to the southeast, and a wind shift to the west and southwest.

The smoke will prevail into Friday, before winds shift back to the south, and the heat, humidity and thunderstorms return for the Canada Day holiday weekend.

Dense smoke from fires burning in central and western Quebec have been settling across eastern North America and observed as far away as Portugal and France. (SOPFEU)

Beneficial rain is falling in Montreal on Thursday morning. While showers and thunderstorms have been occurring all week long, most areas have been spared heavy rainfall. For example, at my home on Ile Perrot, the first rain of the week is finally falling this morning. I have only measured 46.2mm for the month of June, while parts of Vaudreuil had 60mm in just one hour on Monday. Trudeau Airport for the same time frame has reported 67.8mm. These differences are typical of a warm and humid airmass, where thunderstorms can be hit and miss.

Radar estimates show that as much as 100mm of rain fell in thunderstorms in Vaudreuil-Dorion on Monday, producing flash flooding. However, just across the bridge on Ile Perrot, no rain fell until Thursday morning, and even then only a few millimetres was measured. (Ventusky.com)

The smoke was affecting portions of the Great lakes and Midwest on Wednesday, with very dangerous air quality across the region. Toronto has some of the most polluted air on the planet Wednesday, reporting 15 consecutive hours of smoke. Early Thursday, their air quality has improved, while both Ottawa and Montreal are declining. Current readings show and AQI of 73 in Montreal and an unhealthy 156 in Ottawa.

Widespread smoke and haze is set to return to southern Quebec Thursday afternoon. Another upper level low returns over the weekend with more heat, humidity and thunderstorms. (AccuWeather.com)

The smoke will return for approximately 24 hours before retreating back to the northwest by Saturday.

According to SOPFEU, 110 fires are currently burning in the province, 26 of which are out of control. We are in the worst fire season on record here in Quebec, with close to 1.5 million hectares scorched already. (1 hectare equals 2.5 acres). Resources from New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Yukon, Parks Canada, The Canadian Armed Forces, USA, France, and South Korea have been helping Quebec firefighters battle the fires. The current wet weather across portions of the province is lending a much needed helping hand.

Strong thunderstorms produce flash flooding in Vaudreuil while sparing Montreal

A wall of darks clouds greets an arriving airplane at Trudeau Airport on Monday afternoon. The thunderstorms remained west of the city, producing flash flooding in Vaudreuil-Dorion off the western tip of the island of Montreal.

An intense northward moving line of thunderstorms impacted the Vuadreuil-Dorion region on Monday afternoon, with as much as 60mm of rain falling in under one hour. There are unofficial reports on social media of more than 100mm falling. The torrential rain fell quickly, overwhelming the sewer system and flooding numerous businesses and homes. Among them were Costco and Maxi on Saint-Charles. Parking lots were quickly inundated with water stranding several motorists. The Centre Multisport was also closed for the evening due to flooding. The flooding was isolated in nature, with no rain occurring at my home on Ile Perrot, only 12 kilometres to the southwest.

The storms missed the Montreal region, splitting the city to the east and west in narrow lines. Strong storms also affected portions of the Ottawa Valley, with a potential tornado observed near Thurso, Quebec.

Another area of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is moving northward along the New York, Vermont border at 10PM and should arrive in the Montreal region later this evening and early overnight.

Any storms will taper off after midnight, with a muggy low of 20C (68F) expected in Montreal. On Tuesday, our weather will continue to be affected by the slow moving upper low pressure as it moves eastward towards New England. Look for very humid conditions, with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing once again during the afternoon hours. There is the risk for more heavy rain and flash flooding. As we witnessed today, not all regions will be affected by the storms.

Dense smoke settles over Montreal - relief on the way

An unnatural sky in Vaudreuil-Dorion and Ile Perrot as dense smoke covers the region, generated from wildfires in central and northern Quebec. The smoke will lift northwest early Monday morning. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Smog Warning in effect for southern Quebec - Air Quality Advisory in Ontario

Special Weather Statement for strong thunderstorms Monday for Montreal

Sunday has been a very unhealthy day to be outdoors, with widespread smoke form the Quebec wildfires settling over southern Quebec. The Montreal region has had some of the worst air quality on the planet today, with an Air Quality Index (AQI) of 198 as of 7pm. Eastern parts of the city re well over 200. The AQI has been as poor as 297 today. Readings between 150-200 are unhealthy, over 201, very unhealthy. The fine particulate matter can make it difficult to breathe at times, especially for those with respiratory issues. 

Montreal has observed 13 hours and counting of smoke at Trudeau Airport, with the visibility ranging between 2-4 kilometres. Ottawa has reported 16 hours of smoke, with their visibility lowered to between 1-3 kilometres. The smoke has also drifted into portions of northern New York and New England.

The smoke is being generated by 80 wildfires burning in the province on Sunday, many out of control. The fires have scorched nearly 1.3 million hectares of land, over 3 million acres. This is the worst fire season on record for the province. SOPFEU maintains an open air fire ban across the province, with the exceptions of those regions south of the St. Lawrence River. The air quality will begin to improve in Montreal early Monday morning as the wind shifts out of the south due to an approaching upper level low.

The temperature failed to reach the forecast high in Montreal on Sunday, as smoke filtered out the suns warmth over southern Quebec. (Valley Weather Photo)

On Saturday, isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms produced enough rain to create some flooding around 5pm in Montreal. Some parts of the city, including Trudeau Airport, reported up to 25mm (1 inch) of rain in under one hour. It was isolated in nature, with no rain falling here on Ile Perrot.

We have a very wet, warm and humid week ahead, with plenty of showers and slow moving thunderstorms. Between 30 and 50mm of rain is possible locally in the thunderstorm activity on Monday alone, with more rain expected throughout the upcoming week. The storms will develop during the afternoon for Montreal. The high on Monday is expected to be around 25C (77F), with a muggy low near 20C (68F).

Environment Canada image showing the extent of the smoke over southern Quebec and Ontario.

Warm and humid holiday weekend ahead for Montreal

Warm and humid weather along with frequent showers and thunderstorms are expected for the long holiday weekend in Montreal.

Welcome to summer 2023, arriving right on time at 10:57 AM on Wednesday. 

While we have had some hot days this spring in Montreal, the humidity has been in check for the most part. That will change beginning Friday, as a warm and moist airmass surges northward straight from the Gulf of Mexico into Ontario and southern Quebec.

Along with the humidity will come a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms from late Friday, lasting well into the middle part of next week. While everyday won't be a washout, it will definitely be very humid, with frequent periods of heavier precipitation expected.

As far as temperatures are concerned, Thursday and Friday will be quite warm, with highs close to 30C (86F). Over the holiday weekend, clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures slightly cooler, in the middle 20s, but the aforementioned elevated humidity will increase humidex/real feel readings into the low 30s. The overnight periods will remain very muggy and warm, with lows either side of 20C (68F) in Montreal. Some locations may remain above 21C (70F).

While the threat for severe weather remains relatively low at this time, there will be some stronger storms that produce periods of heavy rainfall, with some potential for flash flooding. The thunderstorm development will need to be monitored, weather warnings may be needed. The greatest risk in Montreal will be each afternoon, Saturday through next Wednesday.

Mother nature has been exceptionally crazy the last few weeks, with everything from forest fires to June snowstorms. Just this week, both record highs and lows were recorded across Newfoundland in the same 24 hour period. Searing heat has set all time record highs across Texas, and that heat surged northward into southern Manitoba on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 30s at some locations. Severe thunderstorms dumped heavy hail across Colorado, while thunderstorms caused significant flooding and damage in southern Manitoba. Environment Canada along with the Northern Tornadoes Project will be investigating damage at Ninette, Killarney, Sidney and Austin, Manitoba to determine if tornadoes occurred. In Fisherton, Manitoba, northwest of Winnipeg, 143.6mm of rain fell during the thunderstorms.

The tropics are becoming active. Above, a NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Bret east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday morning. 

Tropical storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic Basin. Early Thursday morning, Bret was located 205 kilometres east of Barbados, moving west at 22km/h. The storm has winds of 110km/h and was expected to reach hurricane strength on Thursday. Storm warnings have been raised for the Leeward Islands.

Finally as we head into the holiday weekend, keep in mind that there are still 80 fires burning in Quebec. Most of the region north of the St. Lawrence River has a burn ban in effect. Addiotnally the use of fireworks is being restricted for most of the province.

Be weather aware and stay safe.

Unsettled weather for Grand Prix weekend in Montreal

Qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix was held in the rain in 2022 at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, and it is looking that way again for this weekends event. Showers are forecast all day Saturday, but dry weather is expected for race day Sunday, with just a chance of a sprinkle. (Stellantis - Alpha Romeo Photo)

Thousands of race fans will be descending on Montreal this weekend for the Canadian Grand Prix F-1 race. Unfortunately the weather does not look great. An upper level low has been influencing the weather most of this week, with numerous showers and thunderstorms across southern Quebec.

The storms were particularly active Thursday afternoon along a trough, producing lots of thunder and lightning, heavy rain and even some small hail. Some much needed rain did fall, with 4mm at Trudeau Airport, and 9mm here on Ile Perrot. There were reports of sporadic power outages and a few tree branches down.

The counterclockwise flow around the system will deliver a few hours of hazy, smoggy weather to Montreal on Friday as more smoke from the Quebec wildfires drifts over the region. A smog warning is in effect for Montreal.

There are numerous activities scheduled, both at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve and in downtown Montreal on Friday, but those attending, will have to dodge more showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. Again some of the storms may be on the strong side. The good news is that most of the day will remain dry.

Saturday however will be wet. Another upper level low, the third in a series, will slowly drift from the Great Lakes into central New England while deepening. The result will be showery, breezy and cool weather for Saturday across southern Quebec. As much as 15mm of rain is expected. The damp weather will last all day.

The silver lining is that the system will continue to push east and allow for the showers to taper of Saturday evening. Sunday now looks much better than it did 24 hours ago, with mostly dry conditions, with perhaps a sprinkle of two. Temperatures will be on the cool side all weekend, around 20C (68F) for daytime highs, and in the lower to middle teens for lows.

The heat will return late next week, as we have a pattern change expected to develop. The region will begin to tap into some very warm and humid air that is entrenched over the Gulf states this weekend. We can expect warm and humid weather with scattered thunderstorms starting by mid week and persisting into next weekend. The depth of the heat and humidity and the frequency of thunderstorm activity still needs to be fine tuned.

A break from the smoke across our region...for now

Thick smoke from hundreds of Quebec wildfires envelopes the George Washington Bridge in New York City on Wednesday. The smoke prompted numerous cancelations, flight delays and warnings up and down the east coast from officials asking residents to remain indoors. The air quality readings this week were some of the worst on the planet and in recorded history for many locations from Ontario to Washington. Conditions are improving on Friday for now, but the fire season remains very active across Canada. (AP Photo)

The air quality has improved for many residents of southern Quebec and Ontario on Friday as the smoke has dissipated considerably over the last 24 to 36 hours. Low pressure in the upper atmosphere that has been drifting slowly across New England, is forecast to move east of the region Saturday, finally releasing its grip on our weather. The dreary, smokey and at times wet weather here in Montreal this week, will be replaced by sunshine and warmer temperatures Saturday and Sunday.

However, winds will back to the northwest on Sunday, and more smoke at very high altitudes may drift back into the region. At this time we are not expecting a repeat of this past week, but it will need to be monitored closely.

The smoke was so dense at times, especially across southern Ontario and New York, that air travel was impacted, and numerous outdoor events were cancelled. This included two Major League Baseball games in New York City and Philadelphia.

The smoke is being generated by hundreds of fires burning in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The smoke is being driven counter clockwise around the upper level low and deep into the US. Over 125 fires are currently burning in Quebec, with close to 649,000 hectares burned so far. Nearly 40,000 square kilomteres have burned across Canada this year and it is only June. That makes 2023 the fourth worst season on record to date, likely to become number one within the next week or so.

Relief is arriving from France, Costa Rica, Portugal and the United States. US President Biden has promised 600 firefighters and several aircraft to assist with the Canadian response.

Another low pressure system arriving late Sunday and Monday promises more beneficial rainfall for Ontario and Quebec, but also more lightning. Southerly winds accompanying this low pressure will result in a warmer, more humid airmass than the current system. Along with the showers will be frequent thunderstorms in the humid air. Lightning from last Thursdays thunderstorms in Quebec is believed to be the leading cause of many of the major fires currently burning in the province.

The rain this week has been helpful, but more is needed. Since June 1st, 7.2mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport. The normal for the entire month of June is 87mm.

Some relief from wildfire smoke in Montreal

Haze and smoke lie across the western horizon in Montreal on Monday afternoon. Poor air quality has resulted in widespread weather warnings from Quebec and Ontario southward along the US Eastern Seaboard. Some relief is on the horizon for metro Montreal, but eastern Ontario, including Cornwall and Ottawa, will continue to bear the brunt of some of the worst air quality in the world.

Smog warning in effect for metro Montreal

The air is still thick  with smoke across many parts of western Quebec and southern Ontario, stretching as far south as the Carolinas on Wednesday morning, but some relief is in sight. A stubborn upper level low pressure system retrograding over New England, has brought some light rain and cooler temperatures to many parts of the province. While amounts have been very light, less than 2mm here in Montreal, any rainfall is welcome. The cooler temperatures are helping as well.

The circulation around the low has driven the worst of the smoke into eastern Ontario and western New York state. That region has measured some of the worst air quality in the world over the last 24 hours, with widespread visibilities under a couple of kilometres along with high numbers of fine particulate matter. Levels have been very high in eastern Ontario especially, with very unhealthy to hazardous levels reported.

The smoke and haze caused many outdoor activities to be cancelled in the Montreal region and across western Quebec into Ontario on Tuesday.

The smoke is being generated by nearly 150 active wildfires burning across the province that have consumed nearly 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres). For may, this is the worst fire season already in Canada, and it certainly has produced some of the poorest air quality at many locations since record keeping began.

While conditions will briefly improve here in Montreal, many other locations will still be dealing with the smoke and extremely dry weather.

Widespread air quality advisories remain in effect on Wednesday. The low pressure in question helping to propel the smokey air southward, will only drift eastward very slowly, persisting into Friday. By the weekend, high pressure will attempt to clear skies out, and we may see a break from the smoke.

We need rain. The showers expected this week are forecast to produce 5-10 mm of rain in the Montreal region, but much more is needed to break the dry almost drought-like conditions across the southern and western portions of the province.

Poor air quality as hundreds of fires burn across Quebec

An unnatural view of the sun on Tuesday morning over Montreal. Smoke from over 150 wildfires burning in Quebec, is resulting in poor air quality as far west as Toronto and as far south as New York City. (Valley Weather Photo)

Smog Warning posted for southern Quebec, with Air Quality Advisories in effect for eastern Ontario, New England and New York.

The record warm and dry weather of the last week or so has taken a toll on the Quebec forest fire season. The province is now reporting over 153 fires, many burning out of control. The amount of hectares covered has exploded to 223,877, well-above the ten year average for the date. There have been 434 fires since the start of the year in Quebec. Nearly 10,000 residents have been forced from their homes, especially in the hard-hit Abitibi, Cote-Nord and Saquenay regions.

While strong low pressure did bring rain to eastern parts of the province, the western portion remains bone dry. The low pressure produced gusty north and northeast winds that have driven dense smoke into Ontario, southern Quebec and as far south as New York City. Very poor air quality is producing spectacular sky conditions but also contributing to increase in repository and health issues.

SOPFEU map of the more than 150 fires currently burning across Quebec. Each red icon represents a fire burning out of control. (SOPFEU)

What we need now is rain. To date, Montreal has had only 0.2mm recorded at Trudeau Airport for June. Last month we measured only half the normal rainfall. A soaking rain would help firefighters gain some ground in the province. Nearly 480 firefighters are on the ground, helped by at least 200 Canadian Armed Forces. Resources are being requested from other parts of Canada, the US and as far away as France and Costa Rica.

Thousands have been evacuated in the province as one of the worst fire seasons on record continues. (Radio Canada)

The weather system we had last Thursday, produced very little rainfall, with plenty of lightning and gusty winds, the perfect ingredients to start and spread wildfires quickly. Currently a province wide burn ban remains in effect.

The balance of the week is forecast to be cooler, with scattered showers at times and perhaps a ruble of thunder. While we are not expected a huge quantities of precipitation, any amount at this time would help.

With hundreds of wildfires burning across Canada, authorities fear this may be the worst fire season on record for the country.

More record heat for Montreal - but cooler weather on the way

A provincial water bomber battles a blaze burning out of control near Chapais, Quebec. Resources have been spread thin across the province, as more than 100 fires are burning at this time. The good news is cooler weather is on the way, with some rain expected as well. (SOPFEU)

Thursday was smoking hot in Montreal, about as hot as we get at any time during the year, The high at Trudeau Airport was 34.3C (94F) smashing the previous record of 29.3C (85F) set in 2011. The heat was even more impressive downtown at the McGill/McTavish location, where a 131 year old temperature record fell, with a high of 34.8C (95F), surpassing the 1892 record of  30.7C (87F). No matter how you look at it, or where you were in southern Quebec, it was hot!

The humidity remained low for the day, with very little moisture available as a frontal boundary slipped south across the Laurentians into Montreal by 5pm. That set the stage for a series of dry, windy Prairie-like thunderstorms around the supper hour. The storms generated lightning and strong wind gusts in the 70km/h range, but sparse rainfall. There was more dust being blown around in most locations than anything else. The front did produce a sudden drop in temperatures as the thunderstorms collapsed bringing cooler air from the upper atmosphere. Here on Ile Perrot, the temperature dropped from 35C (95F) to 27C (81F) in less than 10 minutes.

The humidity levels have risen overnight in Montreal, and we have a better chance of stronger storms Friday afternoon, along with some heavy rainfall, as a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast. The storms may be briefly severe, with heavy rain and lightning the main threat. Before the storms, we have another record high expected today of 31C (88F). The record to beat was 30C set in 1970.

We need the rain desperately as the fire situation has grown exponentially over the last week. Over 100 active fires are burning across the Province of Quebec at the moment, eight considered out of control. According to SOPFEU, the hectares burned as exploded up to 15,152 in the last week. A burn ban remains in effect across the province, as well as into Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Be very vigilant with any source of fire or heat outdoors, it does not take much to ignite the dry vegetation at this time. One fire is threatening the central Quebec community of Chapais where some evacuations have been ordered.

The heat and smoke from the fires triggered a massive power outage in Quebec Thursday afternoon, with over 250,000 Hydro-Quebec customers in the dark and heat, including 88,000 in the Montreal region.

There is some good news as cooler weather in the way for the weekend. The high Saturday will be a more seasonable 22C (72F), along with gusty northeast winds up to 50km/h. We also have more rain and much cooler weather forecast for next week, which will certainly bring some much needed relief to the fire situation across eastern Canada.

Record high for Montreal - extreme fire danger across southern Quebec

Sunday was a spectacular day in the Montreal region, with nothing but sunshine and a record high of 31.2C at Trudeau Airport. Unfortunaelty the weather is dangerously dry and breezy, perfect for outdoor fires to spread quickly is they occur. An outdoor fire ban is in effect. 

Hot, dry and breezy weather expected this week for southern Quebec.

Sunday was the warmest day of the year to date, and a record for May 28 dating back to 1978. The high was a scorching 31.2C (88F), surpassing the 1978 record of 31C. A weak backdoor cold front moved across the St. Lawrence Valley late last night, with very little fanfare. A few clouds accompanied the front, along with a wind shift to the northeast and slightly cooler air. Monday will be another sunny and warm day, albeit a touch cooler, with a high of 25C (77F). This will be the "coolest" weather for the upcoming week. We will likely observe our first 32C (90F) high of the season this week here in Montreal.

The balance of the work week will feature strong high pressure moving slowly across eastern North America. The result will be increasing warmth, along with very dry and breezy conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s across a large portion of southern Quebec. No rain is expected before late Friday and even then, significant amounts are not expected. It has been a very dry month in Montreal, with only 43.6mm of rain recorded at Trudeau Airport.

The fire risk is quite high across most of Quebec and into Atlantic Canada. The risk in the Montreal region is extreme, and an outdoor burn ban is in effect according to SOPFEU. The agency is advising against any type of outdoor fires, including campfires. You are also reminded to be extremely vigilant with the disposal of lit cigarettes. To date the agency has battled 176 fires in the province that have burned more than 300 hectares (740 acres). There are currently 11 active fires burning in Quebec.

Thousands of residents evacuate the suburbs northwest of Halifax on Sunday afternoon, while firefighters race to control the fast-moving flames. (CBC)

The dry, windy weather is also affecting eastern Ontario and Atlantic Canada. On Sunday, a fast moving wildfire forced the evacuation of over 18,000 residents in several suburbs northwest of Halifax. The fire destroyed numerous homes and dwellings, and continues to burn out of control on Monday morning. A state of emergency is currently in effect across the Halifax Regional Municipality.

Humidity levels will begin to rise midweek, which will help to lower the extreme fire risk here in the Montreal region.

Summer weather surges into southern Quebec

The first summer weather of the year is upon us, with an extended period of sunny, warm weather forecast for all of southern Quebec. Temperatures will soar into the low 30s by next week.

 After an April ice storm, spring flooding and a frosty May in Montreal, summer weather will finally surge into southern Quebec for the last few days of the month. May has featured a veritable roller coaster of temperatures from the middle 20s to the low single digits. We have had more than our fair share of frost for spring,  especially for off-island communities. But after Friday mornings single digit lows, 5C (41F) here on Ile Perrot, summer temperatures are on the way.

Strong high pressure at all levels of the atmosphere will slowly drift across Ontario and Quebec we1l into next week. This sets the stage for a prolonged period of dry and increasingly warmer weather. Sunshine is forecast from Friday through next Thursday, with just the chance of a few clouds late in the weekend along a weak front. Dry weather is expected during this time-frame as well, with no precipitation expected until at least next Friday. 

In terms of temperatures, the high Friday will be near 21C (70F), warming through the 20s and reaching as warm as 32C (90F) by next Wednesday and Thursday. For now, relative humidity levels will remain low, the overnight periods will be comfortable, with minimum temperatures in the low to middle teens.

The relatively dry weather for the second half of this month has allowed the spring flood threat to virtually be eliminated in Montreal, as waters have receded rapidly. To date, 43.6mm of rain has been recorded at Trudeau Airport, and with no rain expected through the end of the month, we remain well-below the normal May value of 81.2mm. That saved the city from any major flooding.

The dry and increasingly warmer weather means you should be extremely careful with any outdoor burning and camp fires. This is already turning into quite an active fires season across the country.

Any wet weather for the next few days will be held well south of Quebec and New England, across the middle Atlantic states, where a potent ocean storm is expected to bring high surf, gusty winds and heavy rain from Maryland south into the Carolinas throughout the busy Memorial Day weekend.

Brief cold snap delivers May frost and flurries to Montreal

Frost and freeze advisories are widespread across southern Quebec, Ontario and into New York and New England tonight as an unseasonably cold air mass is expected to drop temperatures below freezing. The record low for Montreal is -0.6C set in 1944.

Frost Advisory posted for southern Quebec

A strong cold front late Tuesday afternoon, has ushered in an unseasonably cold airmass into southern Quebec on Wednesday, with temperatures well-below normal values. Scattered frost was reported early Wednesday morning, especially north of Montreal. A more widespread frost is expected for Thursday morning, with expected lows between 0C (32F) and -3C (27F) forecast. Widespread frost and freeze advisories are in effect covering a large portion of southern Ontario, Quebec, New York and New England. Several hours of below freezing temperatures are possible away from the city. The growing season has started for many, so if you have flowers or plants outdoors, you may want to take precautions to protect them from the cold.

It is hard to see them, but those dark clouds were producing May flurries here on Ile Perrot during the noon hour on Wednesday. Much warmer weather is on the way. (Valley Weather Photo)

A few flurries were even observed at several locations today, including here on Ile Perrot during the noon hour. Clouds began to thin this afternoon allowing the mercury to reach 9C (49F) for the daytime high in Montreal. We just missed the record for the lowest maximum temperature for May 17, which was 8.7C set in 2007. The record low for tonight is -0.6C (31F) set in 1944, we definitely have a shot at that with our current forecast.

As far as snowfall goes, with just a few flurries today and nothing more, we fell short of the daily record of 1.8cm that was set in 1959.

Much warmer air is on the way, along with sunshine Thursday into early Saturday. High temperatures will rebound quickly, up to 16C (61F) Thursday and a summery high of 25C (77F) on Friday. Overnight lows will respond as well, 7C (45F) Friday morning and a warm 16C (61F) into Saturday morning.

Prolonged period of dry weather lowers water levels in the Montreal region

The Ottawa River at Ile Perrot is beginning to recede after moderate flooding in the region. (Valley Weather Photo)

Like a gift from Mother Nature, strong high pressure has dominated the Montreal region for nearly a week now, keeping any wet weather at bay. The only exception was a few sprinkles early Friday morning along a frontal boundary that resulted in only a trace of rainfall. The total this month at Trudeau Airport stands at 26.2mm, all of it falling in the first two days of the month.

As a result, water levels have lowered considerably along the Ottawa and St. Lawrence Rivers. Flooding has eased in most municipalities, allowing for roads to be reopened. Volunteers and sandbags remain ready in case the situation worsens, but right now, the forecast is on our side. The upcoming weekend into Monday will be fair and warm. A couple of millimeters of rain is possible late Tuesday along another frontal boundary, with perhaps a more significant system by next Friday. Neither is posing any concern at this time.

Flooding in Senneville and Pierrefonds resulted in the closure of several roads last week. They have since been reopened as water levels on Lake of Two Mountains have dropped. (Village of Senneville)

As of Saturday morning, Lake of Two Mountains at Pointe-Calumet was at 23.66 metres, down from over 24 metres, lowering from major flood stage to minor flood stage. The same is true at both Terrasse-Vaudreuil (23.57 metres) and Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue (23.60 metres). The St. Lawrence River at Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile-Perrot is also down, sitting at 22.31 metres. All levels are forecast to remain stable or slightly lower over the next 48 hours.

Sunshine, with temperatures close to 20C (68F) are expected all weekend. The nights will be chilly, dropping down to 6C (43F). Friday was one of the warmest days of the year to date, reaching 25.8C (79F) in Montreal.

A NOAA satellite image of high altitude smoke from Alberta wildfires drifting over Ontario, Quebec, New York and New England last Monday. (NOAA)

Flood to Fire

During this past week, we had several days of haze and high altitude smoke, generated by wildfires in Alberta. Northwest winds of 20-40km/h are expected Saturday, which should keep the skies blue and the air clear.

The risk for forest fires is back up in southern Quebec, as a result of the aforementioned dry weather. According to SOPFEU, southwestern Quebec remains under a very high to extreme fire risk, and any outdoor burning should be avoided. Check with your local municipality for any restrictions for burning. Industrial burning permits were suspended in the Montreal region and most of southern Quebec as of May 8, until further notice.

Flooding persists in Montreal - better weather on the horizon

Volunteers are out in full force in the Borough of Pierrefonds-Roxboro. Dry weather is finally expected on Friday, after several days of rain in the Montreal region. Water levels remain high and the flood risk will persist into next week.
(Courtesy Photo Benoit Langevin)

Flood watch for the Montreal region. Montreal remains in Intervention Mode - Level 1

We have one more day of showery, cold and windy weather for southern Quebec, as a stubborn upper level low moves east of the region. It will be replaced by a strong ridge of high pressure, with sunny, warm and more importantly, dry weather into next week.

The rain has been relentless in parts of Quebec, along with moderate to major flooding across many regions. The hardest hit by far this week has been the Charlevoix region, where spring runoff combined with nearly 100mm of rain, has resulted in serious damage and sadly the loss of two volunteer firefighters. There bodies were found on Wednesday after being swept away Monday by fast-moving flood waters.

In Montreal, nearly 50mm of rain has fallen since Sunday. West of the city, 54mm fell at Saint Anicet and 63mm in Ottawa.

Pumps are in place in several municipalities in the western half of metro Montreal.
(L'Île-Bizard Sainte-Geneviève)

In the Montreal region, water levels continue to rise, especially along the western facing shorelines of Lake of two Mountains. The lake itself, part of the Ottawa River Valley, is in major flood stage Thursday morning at 24.36 metres at the gauge in Pointe Calumet. Major flood stage is 24.30 metres. If you are keeping score, it is the third "100 year flood" in the last 6 years. Water levels are also high in Pierrefonds, Senneville, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Ile Perrot and Vaudreuil-Dorion.

In Sainte Anne, the gauge is measuring 24.30 metres Thursday morning, still well below the major flood stage of 24.50 metres. In Terrasse Vaudreuil, the level of the lake is at 24.27 metres. Flooding is occurring to several properties immediately adjacent to the lake.

In Vaudruil-Dorion, precautionary measures have been taken along Boulevard Saint Charles, where flood waters have crept up onto the road in several sections. Shoreline parks have been flooded as well.

In Pierrefonds, sandbagging has been organized to help protect several properties, and volunteers are out in full force Thursday morning. For assistance or to volunteer, you can contact Pierrefonds/Roxboro Councillor, Benoit Langevin at benoit.langevin@montreal.ca 

In Senneville, the municipality has closed Chemin de l'Anse a l'Orme due to flooding. They are monitoring high water levels adjacent to Senneville Road.

In all cases water levels are rising, but the good news is today will be the last day with showers for the region. High pressure will build into southern Quebec starting Friday and remain in place well into next week. The end result will be flood waters stabilizing and beginning to slowly recede. But the next 10 days will be critical for the Island of Montreal and points west, as the water from the Ottawa River drains through the city and east.

Temperatures have been cold for early may, but will rise to near 20C (68F) starting Saturday.

Another round of heavy rain for southern Quebec

A heavy rainfall warning is in effect for southern Quebec including the metro Montreal region. Rainfall amounts may exceed 75mm over the next week, adding to concerns for spring flooding, especially across the Ottawa River Valley from eastern Ontario into the West Island.

Heavy rainfall warning in effect for Montreal for 30-50mm through Monday morning.

More heavy rain is on the way to southern Quebec and Ontario this weekend, as a large upper level low takes up residence over the Great Lakes. This system will be strong, and slow moving, allowing showery, cool and dreary weather to persist in Montreal for most of the upcoming week.

We have a few breaks in the clouds early Saturday morning, along with mild temperatures in the middle teens in Montreal. Clouds will rapidly fill in as a warm front moves northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon. Steady rain will develop by noon and continue into the evening hours before tapering off to showers. Temperatures will drop once the rain begins into the single digits and be slow to rise on Sunday, back up to 13C (55F).

Gusty winds will develop Sunday morning in the 30 to 50km/h range in Montreal, before more rain arrives Sunday afternoon. As the low slowly pinwheels across southern Quebec to start the work week, showers and cool weather will prevail into at least Thursday. In total, the Montreal region and more importantly the Ottawa River Valley could see up to 75mm (3 inches) of rainfall between today and Thursday. This is not good news for the Ottawa River that is already in flood stage. Municipalities close to the river, including here on Ile Perrot, have been preparing all week for the potential for flooding. 

Barriers, sandbags and pumps are at the ready to deal with any rising water. Montreal remains in Intervention Mode - Level 1.

The area gauges have been stable most of the week despite the 25mm of rain that fell since last Sunday. The next two weeks will be critical in determining the extent of spring flooding for our region.

On Saturday morning, the gauge at Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue was steady at 23.68 metres, while the Terrasse-Vaudreuil gauge was rising slightly at 23.67 metres. Both are in minor flood stage at this time. Pointe Calumet on Lake of Two Mountains was down slightly to 23.75 metres.

Stay vigilant if you live near any body of water.

Heavy rain warning - risk of flooding for Montreal region

Minor flooding is already occurring along the shores of Lake of Two Mountains, including at Parc Esther Blondin in Vaudreuil-Dorion shown above. (Ledy Quintero)

 Rainfall warning in effect for Montreal. Flood watch is at Level 1 Intervention.

Steady rain is falling across southern Quebec early Sunday morning, not what we need at this time. I have measured 5mm here on Ile Perrot since 1AM. The flood risk remains elevated in the Montreal region and along the Ottawa River.

A rainfall warning has been issued for the metro Montreal region, with 25 to 40mm possible through Monday. The rain will only add to the elevated river levels across western Quebec, and especially along the Ottawa River.

The Montreal region, including Senneville on the western tip of the island (shown above), is now at the Intervention 1 level for flooding. Water levels are on the rise, and rain is forecast for much of the upcoming week. (Valley Weather Photo)

Flooding has already been observed in Riguad, spreading down river towards Lake of Two Mountains. Several municipalities including Vaudreuil-Dorion, Pierrefonds, Ile Bizard and Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue have started sandbagging and installing pumps. Montreal remains at  Intervention Level 1 and has freed-up resources to deal with any potential impacts.

The upcoming week will be critical, with rain forecast both here and upstream across Eastern Ontario. At this time, officials do not believe the flooding will be as bad as 2017 or 2019, when parts of southwestern Quebec were devastated, and transportation routes greatly affected including the closure of the Galipeault Bridge.

As of Sunday morning, water levels were up, but stable across the region. Riguad was in moderate flood stage at 23.95 metres. Terrasse-Vaudreuil remained in minor flood stage at 23.76 metres, as did Pointe-Calumet at 23.85 metres. All gauges were up from early last week.

The forecast calls for water levels to remain elevated, with minor flooding for the week ahead. That may change if the heavy rainfall develops. The weather for the week looks unsettled and cool, with frequent showers.

The Montreal region has been put on alert for spring flooding

Water from Vaudreuil Bay inundating the shoreline in Terrasse Vaudreuil during severe flooding back in 2019. The area is under alert once again along with many other sections of Montreal for spring flooding. (Valley Weather File Photo)

Water levels are on the rise around the Island of Montreal, after a week of record-breaking warm weather and rapid snow melt. Just two weeks ago, ice covered many of the rivers and lakes in eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec, now the ice is gone. The region has been put on alert for the potential for spring flooding over the next couple of weeks.

The gauge at the Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue locks Tuesday morning sits at 2.194 metres, within minor flood stage, but well below the record level of 3.33 metres set on May 7, 2017, Still, there are signs water is rising in the community and across neighbouring Ile Perrot and Terrasse-Vaudreuil, both hit hard by flooding in 2017 and again in 2019.

The same is true along Riviere-des-Prairies and Lake of Two Mountains, where several municipalities are already preparing for minor impacts this week. Water is slowly creeping onto the Ile Bizzard and Pierrefonds shorelines. The weather this week will be critical with more rain in the forecast. On Monday 12.8mm of rain fell, for a monthly total of 57.4mm. A few sprinkles are expected today, followed by a the potential for a significant storm this weekend. That storm could giver up to 25mm of rain to southwestern Quebec and eastern Ontario. The weather and the river levels will need to be monitored closely.

Further upstream along the Ottawa River, which was responsible for most of the record flooding in southern Quebec in 2017 and 2019, water levels have stabilized somewhat after rising rapidly last weekend. Rapid snowmelt also occurred last week, with temperatures soaring to 30C in parts of the Ottawa Valley. Ottawa has received 54.9 mm of precipitation so far this month. The gauge at Carillon is currently normal, at 23.77 metres, but slowly on the rise.

Vigilance and preparation are the key words for those living in the typical flood prone areas along the western edge of the Island of Montreal, Ile Perrot, Vaudreuil-Dorion and along the shorelines of both north shore rivers, Rivieres des Milles Iles and des Prairies.