Has spring arrived in Montreal?

Lac St. Louis remains locked in ice February 28, 2018. However, with above-normal temperatures during the last two weeks and more mild air expected for the next two weeks, the ice should begin to thin and break up soon. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Meteorological winter will come to an end today, February 28. In Montreal, it was an interesting winter, to say the least, but is it over? February started off cold and snowy, with expectations of that weather lasting the entire month and well into March. Mother Nature, however, had a different plan, with a large warm ridge of high pressure dominating eastern North America. A persistent western trough managed to keep the cold air locked in place across the Prairies, Alberta and B.C. For Montreal, the average high for February was -0.2C, well above the normal of -3.2C. The temperature was above the freezing mark on 15 of the 28 days. In the last two weeks, daytime highs have been anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees above normal on most days. The two factors keeping our highs lower than they may have reached were the 207cm of snow that fell on Montreal from December through early February and the frozen St. Lawrence River.

Is the warm weather here to stay?  The short answer: yes. Looking into our "crystal ball", no frigid air is expected for at least the next two weeks. At that point, being well into March, the angle of the sun is increasing, making it rather difficult for arctic air to become established.

Just how warm has it been overall this February? Well in Greenland, February high temperatures have been running well above normal. At Cape Morris Jessup, in the high Arctic region of northern Greenland, the temperature has been above freezing for 61 hours this winter. The Arctic winter runs October to March, with much of the region in complete darkness. The 61 hours establishes a new record, smashing the old record of 16 hours set in 2011. The warm weather included 24 consecutive hours above freezing on February 20th and a high of 6C (43F) on February 24. This shows us just how little cold air is available across eastern North America. These numbers should be a real concern to all of us. They are startling. While above-freezing winter temperatures do occur, on average, once a decade at this location, this is the second time in the last three years, and never for such an extended period. Arctic sea ice is melting faster than anyone expected.

With all of this information taken into account, and peeking at the models over the next few weeks, spring may have indeed arrived in Montreal. However, that does not rule out a quick-hitting storm or two. As we are all well aware, historically, the largest snowstorms in Montreal have occurred in March and even into the early part of April.

Messy weather weekend ahead for southern Quebec

Freezing rain warnings are in effect for Montreal, The St Lawrence and Ottawa Valleys through Friday night.

A freezing rain warning in effect for Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario through midnight Friday.

A period of very mild and wet weather is expected this weekend across southern Quebec. The warm air will remain in place next week, with temperatures expected to be well above normal. Montreal will remain on the warm side of two winter storms moving from Colorado towards the western Great Lakes over the weekend. The first system will spread clouds and light freezing rain into southern Quebec this afternoon. Freezing rain warnings are in effect for Montreal, but the precipitation should be fairly light. We can expect 2 to 5mm of freezing rain, changing to showers this evening as the temperature warms to 3C (38F) overnight.

Saturday will feature clearing skies and mild temperatures, with no precipitation expected. On Sunday, the stronger of the two storms will follow a similar path across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. With a forecast track well north and west of Montreal, warm air will dominate in our region once again. Snow mixed with freezing rain will begin Sunday afternoon, rapidly changing to rain late in the day. The temperature will become very mild on Sunday, reaching 6C (43F) by the evening hours. Skies will clear out on Monday, expect the mild weather to persist, with a high of 4C (39F).

Record warmth surges into eastern Canada

Freezing rain in Quebec City produced downed trees and widespread power outages. (Radio Canada)

Unseasonably warm temperatures for February surged into southern and eastern Ontario and Quebec over the last 24 hours. As per usual, the cold held on firm here in Montreal, taking at least 20 hours to scour out of the St. Lawrence Valley.  As locations to the south and west of Montreal warmed into the teens on Tuesday, Montreal remained just above the freezing point. At Trudeau Airport, the temperature stayed stuck between 0C and 1C (32-33F) for over 15 hours, and another 8 hours at 2C (36F). Finally on Wednesday morning, the temperature surged up to and over 10C (50F) in sections of the city.  The warm weather has generated dozens of record highs in Ontario and Quebec, including the national hotspot of 18.6C (66F) at Vineland, Ontario. In Quebec, Frelighsburg was 18.1C (65F), smashing the previous record high of 10.4C (51F) set in 1996. St Anicet, Quebec reached 10.7C (52F), with 10.2C (51F) at McGill in downtown Montreal, both records for the date.

Accompanying the warmth was heavy rainfall. I measured 22.2mm of rain on L'Ile Perrot from late Monday through Wednesday morning. Minor flooding was reported in Ontario, but little in Quebec so far. South of the border in upstate New York and Vermont, temperatures reached nearly 21C (70F). Rapid snowmelt combined with ice jams, produced flooding on several northern New England rivers.

Northeast of Montreal, the problem was freezing rain, with the mercury hovering just below the freezing point. Over 15mm of ice accumulation resulted in downed tree branches and power lines. Hydro Quebec reported over 122,000 subscribers in the dark, this included 107,000 in Quebec City alone.

A cold front moving across Ontario Wednesday afternoon, will bring more seasonable air back into the region. Montreal can expect a low of -7C (19F) tonight, with highs on Thursday remaining below freezing at -3C (27F). Mild air and showers will move back into southern Quebec this weekend.

Flood risk on the rise this week in southern Quebec

Heavy rain, record warmth and melting snow will increase the risk of flooding this week in southern Ontario and Quebec. (AccuWeather.com)

Near record breaking warmth is forecast this week across southern Ontario and Quebec. A large ridge of high pressure located off the southeast US coast, will pump unseasonably warm and humid air northward. A frontal boundary will become established along the northern periphery of the high pressure. Along this boundary, several waves of low pressure are expected to bring significant rainfall through late Wednesday. Conditions in Montreal will start off dry and mild on Monday, with daytime highs approaching 5C (41F). Clouds will thicken late in the day, along with rain developing by evening. Intermittent rain is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley through Wednesday evening, with 20 to 40mm (0.5-1.5 inches) possible. The combination of above freezing temperature, rapid snowmelt and potential ice jams, will increase the risk of flooding across the entire region. Widespread flood watches are in effect south of the border across New York and New England, with a special weather statement covering the flood risk here in southern Quebec.

As far as daytime high temperatures go, Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the week, potentially challenging the record highs. We have a decent shot at the record set Tuesday in Montreal, which was 10C (50F) set in 1994. Wednesday and Thursday may be a little more difficult, with the current records dating back to a very warm February in 1981, at 13.9C (56F) and 15C (59F) respectively. The current forecast calls for highs of 8 to 12C (45F to 54F) both days. The overnight lows Monday through Wednesday should remain above freezing as well, near 5C (41F).

A cold front arrives late Wednesday, accompanied by flurries and cooler temperatures.

Mild weather returns to Quebec and Ontario

The warmer weather will help melt away some of the ice and snow that has accumulated over the last two weeks. (ValleyWeather)

A pattern change is well underway this week that will see mild weather to end the month of February across eastern North America. Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal values through next week. The only exception should be this Saturday, behind a cold front, when the high will be -7C (19F). Otherwise, look for temperatures at or above freezing. Thursday, a warm front will produce periods of drizzle in Montreal, with a mild high of 6C (43F). Rain is forecast to develop late Thursday along the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will remain above freezing into Friday morning. On Friday, the rain will eventually change to snow before ending. Little accumulation is expected at this time. The temperature will drop all day to overnight lows of -18C (0F) by Saturday morning. The weather this weekend will remain fair and dry.

The cold weather will be very brief in Montreal, with temperatures warming overnight Saturday into Sunday. Sunday through Tuesday, we can expect highs between 0C and 3C (32-38F). Depending on which commuter model output you prefer, the weather for the remainder of next week will either be very warm and wet, or mild with mixed precipitation. The details still need to be fine-tuned, but one thing is certain, the weather will be warmer than the long-term average for late February.

Another round of snow expected in Montreal

A major accident south of Montreal Wednesday, claimed the life of a 70 year old motorist. Excessive speed in very poor road conditions caused this wreck and many more. (CBC Photo)

After the little storm that could crossed the region on Wednesday, February 7, Montreal has now accumulated over 185cm of snow this season. Huge mountains of the white nuisance are everywhere, as municipalities struggle to find new locations to dump it. More is on the way this weekend.

The driver of this transport was very lucky Wednesday evening, surviving a plunge off the Route 342 overpass at Highway 30 in Vaudreuil/ Dorion. (neomedia.com Photo)

Taking a look back at this weeks storm, 15cm fell at Trudeau Airport, with 20cm from L'Ile Perrot across the South Shore towards the US border. In the Eastern Townships, Cowansville measured 35cm. The track of the system actually introduced heavier snow into southern Quebec than previously expected, at least by Environment Canada. The overall amounts in southern Quebec were poorly forecast, and warnings issued very late. The storm generated terrible road conditions. There were numerous major accidents, snarling traffic in the city and especially to the south. Highway 20 was closed in both directions near Mont-Saint-Hilaire after a fatal 50-vehicle pileup. Provincial Police were forced to close both Highway 30 on the South Shore near St Constant, and Highway 10 towards Sherbrooke for lengthy periods. My 45-minute commute home Wednesday evening took 2.5 hours to complete. Highway 40 towards Vaudreuil was blocked for over one hour by multiple collisions, forcing traffic onto alternate routes, clogging them.

After the brief break on Friday, the weather will become unsettled again in Ontario and Quebec. Snow is expected from late Friday evening through Sunday night. The precipitation will not come from one major system, but rather weak impulses of energy riding along a frontal boundary draped just south of Montreal. The snow will be light most of the time, but we are still expecting 10 to 15cm by Sunday evening. There may even be some freezing drizzle sprinkled in for good measure. The temperatures will be rather mild this weekend, around -4C (25F) both Saturday and Sunday, with a low of -8C (18F) both nights.

Montreal on northern edge of quick moving winter storm

We are running out of places to pile the snow. A quick moving winter storm will give Montreal another 10 to 15cm of snow on Wednesday.

Southern Quebec and Ontario will be on the northern edge of a winter storm, quickly moving form the lower Mississippi Valley to southern New England on Wednesday. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight in Montreal, with chilly overnight lows of  -13C (9F). Clouds will increase early Wednesday morning, followed by snow, moving from southwest to northeast through the midday. The snow could become heavy at times from Montreal south into New York and Vermont. Precipitation should taper of to a few flurries by midnight. The temperature will be cold throughout the snowfall, with a daytime high near -8C (18F) in Montreal. Total storm accumulations will be in the order of 10cm from Montreal north and west towards the Ottawa Valley. Along and south of the St. Lawrence River, 10 to 15cm is likely from Cornwall towards the south shore of Montreal. Across the Eastern Townships and south into New England and New York, 15-30cm is forecast. Winter storm warnings are in place from Sherbrooke south into the US. In the St Lawrence Valley of New York, a winter weather advisory is in effect. No warnings are in effect at this time for Montreal.

Regardless of the weather warnings, steady snow, along with gusty northeast winds between 20 and 40 km/h, will make travel poor during the afternoon commute in Montreal. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3cm per hour are possible, especially south and east of Montreal. Expect icy, snow covered roads and reduced visibility.

Active weather week ahead - more snow for Montreal

The last remains of yesterday's cloud cover and snow slip south of Montreal early this morning, leaving behind bright sunshine. The temperature fell quickly after skies cleared, along with strong northwest winds and blowing snow. (Valley Weather Photo)

More snow is forecast this week, as an active and unsettled weather pattern remains in place. On Sunday, rather weak low pressure managed to produce 10 to 20cm of fresh snow across portions of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. In Montreal, 13.2cm of snow fell, bringing the seasonal total to 167cm. This amount already represents 80 percent of the normal snowfall for the entire season (209.5cm). The city of Montreal will start removing the snow from borough streets tonight, the sixth cleanup this season. The municipality had budgeted for five. We still have the thick of the snowfall season to go, as most of Montreal's historically big snowstorms have occurred in February and especially March.

We will start adding to this total as early as Wednesday. A developing storm system will move along the edge of our current arctic airmass, passing across Pennsylvania and extreme southern New England. A broad area of snow will occur north and west of the storm track from southern New England into Southern Quebec by Wednesday afternoon. Montreal will likely remain on the northern edge of this storm, with 10 to 15cm likely for the city. As you head south and east, amounts will increase to between 15 and 25cm from the Eastern Townships into northern Vermont and New York. A winter storm watch has been posted for a wide swath of New England and the Northeast US. Weather warnings may be required for a portion of southern Quebec as well.

The temperature will be cold with the storm, likely remaining in the -10C (14F) range on Wednesday across southern Quebec.  Expect the steadiest snow in Montreal between noon and midnight. Skies should slowly clear by Thursday morning. By the weekend, another area of low pressure will bring more snow to Ontario and Quebec. This system bears watching at this time.

The Blizzard of ‘78 - still the benchmark storm after 40 years

A National Guard troop inspects a storm ravaged car in coastal Massachusetts in February 1978. (AP)

Every city has a meteorological benchmark that helps establish where current and future winter storms sit in history. For Montreal, it has always been the Blizzard of ‘71 for snowstorms. While other storms have come close, none have equaled March 3 to 5, 1971.

For Boston and southern coastal New England, that benchmark storm is February 5 to 7, 1978. The ‘70s had some historically wicked winter storms, including one that swept across Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and southwest Ontario in January 1978. That storm established new records for lowest barometric pressure for a landlocked storm. However, just one week later, Mother Nature unleashed an even bigger storm on the US. The blizzard of ‘78 started innocently enough in Boston on the morning of February 6, 1978, as low pressure slowly developed east of Virginia in the Atlantic Ocean. The system would have been just another Nor¹Easter had it not been slowed by strong arctic high pressure over eastern Canada. The high pressure resulted in the storm becoming nearly stationary for over 36 hours east of Cape Cod.

Thousands of cars were abandoned for days. This is US Route 128 in Needham, Massachusetts.

The snow started very lightly early Monday morning, luring most residents of Boston into a false sense of relief. As a result, schools and businesses remained open despite the predictions for heavier snow. By the time businesses and schools were let out in the early afternoon, the storm was a full-fledged blizzard. Thousands of motorists were sent out into the teeth of the storm, quickly becoming trapped on snow-clogged area highways. Many were rescued by cross country skiers and snowmobiles, others remained in their cars for days. It took the authorities, including National Guard troops, nearly a week to clear the roads of abandoned cars. The snow and wind had a tremendous economic impact, closing down the region for over a week. The death toll from the storm was 100, fourteen of which occurred from motorists trapped in their cars. As the system inched its way along the coast, wave after wave of heavy snow fell across southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Boston and its suburbs were the hardest hit, along with coastal New Hampshire. A record 27 inches (69cm) of snow fell on Boston, with 27.6 inches in Providence.

Total dedication! (Boston Herald Photo)

The most devastating impact of the storm was from the powerful hurricane force winds that accompanied the blizzard. The wind not only created zero visibility, but also pounded the coast with a relentless storm surge. Successive high tides created widespread destruction along the New England coast. Over 11,000 homes were damaged or destroyed during the storm. A peak wind gust of 100mph (160km/h) was observed on Plum Island, Massachusetts. Coastal flooding also occurred in New Hampshire and Maine. The final tally surpassed $500 million in damages from the Blizzard of '78.

On a side-note, the power of the storm was felt as far as Montreal. On February 6, 1978, Montreal measured winds of 76km/h, accompanied by 7cm of snow.

Once in a blue moon...

Time-lapse image of a total lunar eclipse and "blood" moon 
(Photo Fred Espenak - NASA.com)

Once-in-a-blue-moon is a non-astronomical term referring to the presence of two full moons within a single month. Oddly enough, this phenomena is not that rare, occurring on average every 2.5 years. As a matter of fact, we will see two blue moons this year, Wednesday morning and again in March.

The thing that makes this particular blue moon special is the celestial trifecta accompanying it early Wednesday morning. The full Wolf moon will be in Perigee, the moons closest approach to the earth. This makes it appear as a super moon, up to 14 percent larger, and 30 percent brighter by some estimates. There will also be a full lunar eclipse occurring, as the moon enters the shadow of the earth, essentially cutting off the sunlight that reflects off the moon. This will create a rusty orange appearance, or blood moon. In a nutshell: a super moon blood moon and lunar eclipse all at once.  This is truly a are event, happening the last time on March 31, 1866.

Here in Montreal, there is a very small window of opportunity for viewing this event. We will only experience a partial eclipse, as the moon will set before totality occurs. You will have to be awake in the pre-dawn hours, watching the western horizon for this spectacular show. The eclipse will start at 6:48AM EST, with moonset in Montreal occurring at 7:17am. Thankfully the weather will be clear, crisp and cold, perfect for viewing. Enjoy, and as always, be safe!

Mild weekend for Montreal

Mild weather will prevail this weekend across Ontario and Quebec. This will give homeowners in Montreal a chance to clear away some of the ice from Tuesday's storm. Enjoy the break, a return to colder weather, with frequent snow, is expected for the beginning of February. (AccuWeather)

A much needed warming trend is underway across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario to end the work week. After the 20mm of freezing rain that fell on Tuesday, Montreal and the suburbs have been covered in a nasty layer of ice. Walking has been beyond difficult, at least in my neighbourhood. To say the least, the walks have been short, the dog is not impressed.

Friday morning was very cold in southern Quebec, -20C (-4F) on L'Ile Perrot, and only slightly warmer in Montreal at -19C. The temperature has since warmed up to -7C (19F) this evening, and will continue to rise up to a high of 5C (41F) on Saturday. Time to scrape away the ice on the driveway and free up the downspouts. A clipper type low pressure system will pass well north of Montreal late Saturday, spreading a few clouds and perhaps a shower or snowflake into our area. Sunday will be slightly cooler, with high of 2C (36F), along with partly cloudy skies. The short-lived thaw will come to an end Monday, as cooler air arrives behind a cold front.

Next week looks relatively quiet at this time, with just some light precipitation, along with near-normal temperatures. We will be closely watching the potential for a storm system to affect the region by the end of the week. The first few days of February are looking mild at this time, but beyond that, indications are for a cold, snowy pattern for most of the month. Time will tell, in the meantime, enjoy the mild weather.

Freezing rain closes schools - cancels flights

Freezing rain and snow have left most parking lots and sidewalks in very poor shape this morning. This contractor was making the walk from the car to work much easier in St. Laurent. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Apparently we have the solution to Montreal's traffic woes, close all the schools. Despite 8mm of freezing rain overnight, the traffic flow is relatively smooth this morning. The same cannot be said at Trudeau Airport, where dozens of flights have been delayed or cancelled. The storm started during the Monday evening commute in Montreal, dropping a quick 10cm of snow on the city, before changing to freezing rain around 10pm.  The freezing rain has coated everything in a layer of ice, making walking and getting to and from your car, the biggest challenges of the day. For that reason, all the major school boards in southern Quebec, have cancelled classes for the day. As of 8am, the hydro grid seems to be holding, with only 6700 customers without power.

The temperature remains below 0C (32F) in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley this morning, but has since warmed above freezing from the South Shore to the US border. Another band of precipitation will be arriving shortly in the city, with 5-10mm expected by noon. There is even the risk of a few rumbles of thunder with this next area of rain. The trailing cold front will arrive later today, dropping temperatures once again to well below freezing, -7C (19F). Any showers or freezing rain will taper off to flurries overnight, with gusty northwest winds up to 60km/h. Colder weather is expected through Friday, before another warm system arrives with more rain expected this weekend.

Significant freezing rain expected for southern Quebec

Environment Canada has posted widespread freezing rain warnings across southern and eastern Ontario, as well as southern Quebec. Significant icing is possible is several location. (AccuWeather.com)

Freezing Rain Warning posted for metro Montreal, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario.

Low pressure will move from Colorado northeast towards the lower Great Lakes on Monday. A warm front will approach the St Lawrence Valley by Monday evening. Along and to the north of this front, a wide area of freezing rain is expected, lasting well into the overnight hours. In Montreal, light snow will begin early Monday afternoon, and transition to freezing rain after the supper hour. Expect 2 to 4cm of snow, with up to 10mm of freezing rain possible in Montreal. North of the St. Lawrence River, heavy snow is likely. The precipitation should change to rain on Tuesday, as temperatures rise above freezing from Montreal south. Northeast of Montreal towards Quebec City, heavy snow is forecast, followed by an extended period of freezing rain. Travel will be slow and dangerous late Monday in eastern Ontario, and across southern Quebec into Tuesday.

The system will move east of the region by late Tuesday, with all precipitation changing back to light snow before ending. Winds are forecast to increase as well on Monday, out of the northeast 30-60km/h. The wind will veer to the south early Tuesday, before backing to the west late in the day. The temperature in Montreal will slowly rise on Monday, all the way above freezing by Tuesday morning. The high on Tuesday will be very mild, 5C (41F). Behind the storm, temperatures will drop back down to -8C (18F) by Wednesday morning.

The calm before the next storm

An image of a Montreal police officer attempting to ticket a snow covered Toyota Supra, has gone viral. The "car" is actually completely made of snow, the creation of 33-year-old machinist and artist Simon Laprise. Laprise made the car in front of his home in Montreal North after last weekends snowstorm. The police were quite amused by the whole event, leaving behind a thank you note under the only true car part, a wiper on the front of the snow sculpture. The note simply read, "Vous avez fait notre soiree!!! HAHAHA..."

After Montreal's record-breaking 36cm snowstorm last weekend, the weather has been rather docile this week. Despite that tranquilly, snow packed side roads and lots of icy spots and potholes on major highways have resulted in terrible traffic this week. Montreal had a frigid start to the work week, but the last day or so has been considerably milder. The mild weather will persist into the early part of next week. Along with the milder weather, clouds and flurries have prevailed across southern Quebec. We can expect this same sort of mundane weather into the weekend, with periods of very light snow and mild temperatures, near 0C (32F),  or perhaps slightly above by Saturday. The warm weather will have authorities watching area rivers and streams. Last Friday's mild weather and rainfall, produced ice jams and flooding in many parts of southern Quebec and New England. Read more HERE.

The next major storm system is expected to develop over the weekend in the southwest US, approaching the central Great Lakes by Monday. This storm is several days away, but a track like this usually results in a snow to rain event for southern Quebec. With the low pressure center passing west of Montreal, warmer air would be drawn into the St. Lawrence Valley. We can expect snow to develop Monday, mixing with freezing rain and eventually changing to rain early Tuesday. The mess will change back to snow late Tuesday night. Amounts may be significant, but I am not anticipating as much precipitation as this past storm. It is nearly impossible this far out to determine exactly how much precipitation will fall, what type and where. Stay tuned!

From record warmth to the biggest snowstorm of the season for Montreal

Every now and then Mother Nature puts on a show to remind us who is in charge. The car above lies buried under the overnight snow on L'Ile Perrot. It has been a wild 24 hours, from record heat to the biggest snowstorm of the season here in southern Quebec. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for southern Quebec.

The biggest snowstorm of the year is ongoing in southern Quebec this morning, just 24 hours after record warmth. Police are advising against travel on all area highways as heavy snow continues to fall in Montreal. As of 9am, 30cm is on the ground here on L'Ile Perrot, and the snow is still falling. Zero visibility is being observed in many locations. There have been hundreds of accidents reported across eastern Ontario and western Quebec. The biggest wreck occurred near Prescott, Ontario last evening, when several trucks collided spilling chemicals, and shutting down both directions of Highway 401 overnight. The road remains closed this morning, and the OPP is advising you stay home.

The snow started around 8pm Friday evening in Montreal, after what was a remarkably warm day. The temperature reached plus 9.8C (50F) in Montreal, smashing the old record of 5.3C set in 1986. In addition to the warmth, heavy rain created isolated flooding in many locations. Montreal had its wettest January 12 on record as well, with 17mm falling. A powerful arctic front dropped the temperature below freezing within a couple of hours last evening. The current temperature is -13C (9F). The snow is being caused by low pressure riding along the aforementioned front. The heaviest snow is falling along an axis lined up with the St Lawrence Valley and points immediately south of it to the US border. By the time the snow ends early this afternoon, 30 to 40cm will have fallen. Frigid temperatures will arrive behind the snow, with an overnight low of -24C (-11F) by Sunday morning.

Rapid freeze and snowstorm to follow record high in Montreal

A powerful cold front will drop the temperature in Montreal from record values today to brutal cold by Sunday morning. Along with the cold will come heavy snow tonight and Saturday. (AccuWeather.com)

Winter Storm Warning in effect for Montreal.

A major change in the weather will occur today as a powerful arctic front crosses the St. Lawrence Valley during the evening hours. Before then, we have a very warm and moist air mass over southern Quebec Friday morning. In fact several locations have already registered record high temperatures for the date. Saint Anicet reached 14C (56F) in the wee hours this morning, a remarkably warm temperature for January 12, and the warmest in the country. Montreal's Trudeau Airport is at 6.3C (44F), also a record for the date, surpassing the 5.3C set in 1986.

In addition to the mild weather, we have an area of heavy rain about to move into southern Quebec. A decent amount is forecast today, 15-20mm, creating the potential for some flooding. The rain is in advance of a sharp arctic boundary that will chase the warm air back to the south. The front will arrive in Montreal close to the evening commute, changing the rain to freezing rain and sleet. The temperature swing will be rapid and brutal, dropping from 7C (45F) in Montreal, down to -5C (23F) in just a few hours. A flash freeze is expected, with roads rapidly icing late in the day. The freezing rain should change to snow after 8pm in Montreal. Low pressure is forecast to move along the cold front tonight and Saturday, increasing the coverage of snow in Montreal. The snow will be heavy at times, especially Saturday morning. Accumulations of 15-25cm (6-10 inches) are expected. Gusty northwest winds behind the front tonight and Saturday will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. The temperature will continue to fall on Saturday, down to a low of -22C (-8F) by Sunday morning. That represents nearly a 30 degree drop in temperatures from this morning.

Widespread weather warnings are in effect today from Ontario across Quebec, into Atlantic Canada and south into New England and New York. If you can, postpone any unnecessary travel from Friday evening thought Saturday afternoon.

Major winter storm to impact region after brief thaw

Freezing rain warning in effect for Montreal and Ottawa today and tonight.

Frozen in time. A much needed thaw will begin in Montreal on Thursday, but end just as quickly on Friday. A potent storm system arrives for Saturday, with heavy snow expected. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Temperatures are on the rise today as clouds increase across southern Quebec. A warm front will approach the St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon and overnight along with an increase in moisture. Light freezing rain is forecast to start in eastern Ontario late this afternoon, and move into Montreal by the middle of the evening. The precipitation will be light, perhaps 1-4mm, but any freezing rain can be problematic on the roads. As the temperature continues to rise overnight, up and above the freezing point, any frozen precipitation will taper to a few showers. On Thursday, gusty southerly winds will allow for the temperature to climb to near record levels, between 5C (41F) and 10C (50F) in southern Quebec. The record for Montreal is 9.4C set in 1975.

The commute this week in Montreal has been slow and painful at times. The extremely cold weather has been slow to moderate, making roads snow covered and slick. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Major Winter Storm
By Friday, a strong arctic boundary will move across Ontario into southern Quebec by the supper hour, bringing a quick end to our thaw. Expect steady rain to develop in Montreal ahead of the front, along with very mild temperatures to start to the day. As the front moves south of Montreal, the mercury will drop quickly, from a high of 6C (43F), down to -7C (19F) by Saturday morning. Any precipitation will change to freezing rain and eventually snow from west to east. How much of each type of precipitation has yet to be determined, but it will be significant. The front will stall across central New England on Saturday, with deepening low pressure moving along it. Freezing rain and snow will continue all day Saturday, with blowing snow and dropping temperatures. My current thinking is 10 to 20mm of rain will fall on Friday, followed by 15 to 25cm of snow overnight into Saturday. This is subject to change as the track of the low pressure becomes more clear. Due to the nature of this event, amounts could vary significantly by region, depending on your local temperature and how fast the changeover occurs. The mess will freeze solid over the weekend, as temperatures drop back to below normal values. Skies will slowly clear Sunday, with a daytime high of only -12C (10F).

Thaw equals relief from the bitter cold for Montreal

Warmer air is trying to push into Montreal this week. Before then, we can expect a messy mix of snow and perhaps freezing rain. The mild air will be pushed out of the region by Saturday. (ValleyWX Photo)

What a difference a few hours can make in weather forecasting and observations. If you would have asked me just a few days ago if I thought we were going to have a thaw this month, I would have likely said no. Yet here we are, just a couple of days away from a forecast high of 8C (47F) in Montreal. The first phase of this thaw will persist for about 48 hours in Montreal. I expect it will be a difficult transition to above freezing temperatures, as the ground is so cold, along with a very firmly packed snow base.

Before we look at the future, let's just take a quick peak at the recent weekend cold snap. If you thought the weather was brutal Friday and Saturday in Montreal, it was. Strong low pressure moving across Atlantic Canada, relentlessly pushed gusty north winds and biting cold into southern Quebec. At Trudeau Airport, the wind gusted over 50km/h (31 mph) for nearly 42 consecutive hours from January 4th to the 6th. At the same time, plummeting temperatures produced wind chills colder than -30C (-22F) for 53 consecutive hours. The peak wind gust measured was 70km/h, with the coldest windchill -40C. The wind, combined with 10cm of fresh falling and blowing snow, produced visibility under a few kilometres for several days. Near blizzard conditions were observed at times on the flat farmland south of Montreal towards the US border, from early Friday into Saturday morning.

January Thaw
Our much anticipated January thaw will come in two parts, the first this week, and another mild stretch around the 20th. A surge of warm air is arriving today on southwest winds. The initial warm air advection is producing a moderate snowfall of 10 to 15cm in the St. Lawrence Valley. The temperatures will continue to warm this week, rising above the freezing point by Thursday. The milder weather will come with more precipitation, in the form of freezing rain and rain late Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday night, colder air will return, along with a transition from rain to snow in Montreal. Saturday could be quite stormy, as another system approaches from the US southwest. By the weekend, temperatures will fall back to more normal values which are -6C/-15C. If you have travel plans late Friday and Saturday, you will want to play close attention to updated forecasts later this week.

Wicked Nor'Easter to ease grip - milder air on the way

Frigid cold and blowing snow made travel difficult in southern Quebec on Friday. (ValleyWeather)

The powerful winter storm that made headlines from Florida to Labrador, will slowly begin to ease its grip on southern Quebec today. For over 24 hours, Montreal has experienced winds in excess of 60km/h, combined with bitter cold and light snow. Visibility at times has been close to zero, especially southwest of the city. On Friday, the Surete du Quebec were advising against travel outside the metro area. Roads were snow packed, icy and visibility was poor. Numerous highways were closed after cars and truck hit the ditch. The wind and cold produced dangerous windchill readings in the middle minus 30s. The frigid weather will persist today, with a high of -20C (-4F) and windchill values between -30 and -40C. The good news is that we will see a moderation in temperatures starting Sunday and persisting this week. We may even see high temperatures nudge above the freezing point by Thursday or Friday. Unfortunately the warmer weather will come at a price, with 5-10cm of snow forecast to start the week, and a messy mix to end it. That mixed precipitation may include a prolonged period of freezing rain. However, the devil is in the details, it will depend on the storm track next weekend. This will have to be watched closely. In any event, temperatures are expected to be closer to normal for the second half of January.

Just one of the many power poles and infrastructure under assault in Nova Scotia form the Blizzard of 2018. (Nova Scotia Power Photo)

The Blizzard of 2018
As bad as conditions were in southern Quebec, we were on the far western edge of this powerful storm. The coastlines were hammered with record setting tides and surf. Widespread flooding and major damage was reported along the New England coast on Thursday. Boston Harbor measured a new record high tide, surpassing those of the famous Blizzard of 1978. Flooding and coastal damage was also observed in Nova Scotia. In Nova Scotia, winds were fierce, with a peak gust of 170km/h (105mph) at Grand Etang on Cape Breton Island. The wind, rain and snow cut power to over 140,000 customers according to Nova Scotia Power. In Quebec, heavy snow and blowing snow stretched from the Eastern Townships towards the Gaspe and Lower North Shore. Winds reached over 100km/h in many sections of the lower St Lawrence Valley, closing highways and business. The storm had a tremendous impact on air travel, with over 4000 flights cancelled on Thursday alone across eastern North America. Several airports are still working through the backlog of passengers this weekend. In the deep south, some airports remained closed Friday, covered in a blanket of snow and shivering in record cold.

Major flooding from record setting high tides was reported along the New England coast. (Photo: Duxbury, Massachusetts Fire Department)

Powerful coastal storm to brush Montreal - arctic cold returns

Heavy equipment clearing the latest snowfall in Saint Laurent on Wednesday morning. With the recent deep freeze, the mounds of snow are growing rapidly. (ValleyWX)

Happy New Year! The cold air has briefly retreated in southern Quebec, allowing the extreme cold warning to expire, finally. Temperatures "warmed" to -14C (7F) on Tuesday, with 5cm of fresh snow. The snow caused the usual chaos on Montreal highways, with numerous accidents reported.

Montreal will remain on the western edge of a powerful east coast storm. (AccuWeather)

Strong Coastal Storm
Our attention now turns to a rapidly developing low pressure area off the Florida coast. The storm is forecast to deepen into a major Nor'Easter within the next 24 hours, while skirting the Atlantic seaboard. Snow and freezing rain is expected from northern Florida into Atlantic Canada. This morning, snow is falling as far south as Tallahassee, Florida. The ice and snow has caused wide ranging delays to air and ground travel along the entire east coast. Heavy snow is forecast along the Carolina coast into Virginia Beach today. As the storm strengthens on Thursday, heavy snow will overspread coastal New England and Atlantic Canada. In addition to the snow, winds will increase along the path of the storm, gusting in excess of 100km/h at times. Coastal areas from Cape Cod into Nova Scotia can also expect some flooding and beach erosion. Widespread power outages are possible in New England and the Maritimes.

The hardest hit regions can expect up to 40cm (14 inches) of snow. Here in southern Quebec, we will remain on the extreme western edge of the system, with light snow and strong northeast winds developing from east to west Thursday afternoon. If the track of the system remains constant with the forecast models, we can expect 5 to 10cm of snow late Thursday into Friday morning. Across the Eastern Townships and into the Gaspe and far eastern Quebec, 15 to 30cm of snow is likely. Travel will be extremely difficult for anyone going south or east of Montreal on Thursday and Friday.

Fresh Arctic Blast
Behind the storm, a fresh blast of arctic air will surge into the region, along with strong north winds. Temperatures will drop to -18C (0F) during the day Friday, with overnight lows expected by Saturday morning between -25C and -30C (-13C to -22C). Daytime highs on Saturday will be frigid, near -22C (-7F) in Montreal. Combined with the strong winds expected, the windchill will be as cold as -40C. Warnings will be likely. By Sunday, we can expect a warming trend, with a high all the way up to -10C (14F). More snow is on the way for Monday and Tuesday.