Weekend Weather

Not the best weekend ahead for outdoor activities, but not the worst either. We start this Friday with scattered frost north and south of Montreal with temperatures down to -1C in the mountains north of the city as well as in Lennoxville in the Townships. Frost has occurred in places but the warnings have been allowed to expire. I managed a low of 3C (39F) here on L'Ile Perrot, but with no frost. With the clouds and showers forecast for the weekend, frost will not be an issue. Speaking of rain, we have low pressure south of the area with precipitation moving slowly into southern Vermont at this time. This will reach Montreal by late in the day with just a slight chance of a few showers. On Saturday a large upper level low will sink into the Great Lakes and then move ever so slowly across Ontario and southern Quebec during the weekend. The forecast is simple, clouds with drizzle and periods of steadier rain most of the weekend. We may see a few sunny breaks Saturday but they will be isolated in nature. High temperatures will be near 15C with lows near 10C both Saturday and Sunday.

Frost warning - southern Quebec

After the passage of Wednesday's cold front, Montreal has dropped to a chilly 6C this morning. We are in for a partly cloudy day today with highs no better than 15C. Skies will clear tonight as high pressure crests over the area. Under clear skies with calm winds temperatures will drop to at or just below the freezing point across most of southern Quebec with a widespread frost expected. For this reason all of southern Quebec is under a frost warning. The exception will be near Montreal where temperatures in the metro region will remain just above freezing at 3 of 4C with just patchy frost expected.

Above I have posted a NOAA satellite shot of a very impressive storm hitting Alaska with strong winds and flooding rains. The trailing front is bringing heavy rains to the B.C. interior with warnings in effect. The intense storm is just a prelude to the what we can expect as October approaches and the battle of the seasons begins. The center almost looks like a hurricane, but has the classic comma shape of a strong mid-latitude storm.

Harvest Moon

The full harvest moon illuminates a John Deere combine on a farm on the prairies. AP Photo

Clouds and a few showers are dotting the area this morning as a very mild and moist southwest flow of air is over the region. A cold front to our west will enhance the showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder by late in the day today through about midnight. Skies should then clear out slowly for a partly cloudy, but much cooler day on Thursday. High temperatures should be mild today as we are already at 14C. Look for highs in the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern Ontario to be in the 20C (68F) range once again. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the cold front down to 6C (43F) overnight tonight and remain chilly Thursday up to 15C (59F). Under clear skies Thursday night, lots of frost should occur away from the rivers and lakes with lows near the freezing point with the exception of metro Montreal around 3 or 4C.

HARVEST MOON
This weekend we have the spectacular large, full and most times orange Harvest Moon. The full moon will be in the sky around 11:18pm Saturday night in Montreal. The Harvest Moon is the full moon closest to the Autumnal Equinox which occurred last weekend. When I was living in Saskatchewan it was a busy time of year with harvest in full swing. Combines would often hum late into the night under the bright, almost daylight at times produced by the full moon. It was a rather beautiful, peaceful scene to see a combine harvesting a field of wheat with the large orange moon lighting the landscape. This year excellent weather in the southern Prairies has allowed the harvest to be well ahead of schedule. According to Saskatchewan Agriculture, almost 74 per cent of the crop has already been harvested. Nevertheless farmers are busy harvesting, hauling bales, seeding winter cereals and controlling weeds and will welcome the extra light at a time when daylight is dwindling. This is true for farmers right across the country who are beyond busy in September and October securing their crops as well as preparing their farms and animals for the long winter ahead.

Showers - milder

After a chilly preview to fall on Monday with some frost and lows in the 4C range, Montreal is about 10 degrees warmer this morning. There is not a whole lot of weather going on coast to coast as we transition into a more Autumn like pattern. Radar is showing a few widely scattered showers over the St. Lawrence Valley in Ontario, but it remains dry in Montreal at this time. We may see a sprinkle today, but it will be dry most of the time. Temperatures on gusty south winds will warm to near 21C (70F). It will remain mild overnight before a cold front approaches the region on Wednesday. Showers and perhaps a steadier rain will develop along the front late Wednesday followed by clearing and cooler weather by Thursday. After a low of 14C tonight it will warm to near 20C again Wednesday before dropping back into the single digits by Thursday morning. A very early look into the weekend shows unsettled weather with clouds and showers both days.

Here comes fall 2012

A fall sky greeted me this morning in North Hampton Beach. Fall arrives Saturday morning at 10:49. It is 49F here on the coast.

Fall arrives at 10:49AM Eastern Time on Saturday, and right along with it will be the stormy and chilly weather. Today will be cloudy in Montreal and most of southern Quebec along with a few showers. More showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday as another strong cold front moves across the Great Lakes and into Quebec. Behind that front the coldest air of the month/season so far will build in with highs remaining below 15C Sunday and well into next week. There will likely be more frost in many areas as lows head towards the freezing point, bringing what was a warm and dry growing season mercifully to an end.

The good news is the extended forecast from the National Weather Service for New England and the border areas of southern Quebec and the Great Lakes basin is for a warmer than average fall with near normal rainfall. So here is hoping the cold weather is still months away! That being said this is my last day on the Atlantic Coast (then back to reality) and it is cloudy at a cold 9C this morning. But I still have my shorts on and off to the beach I go, all mind over temperature!

Storm Update

Above & Below: A sign warns travelers in Salisbury Beach, Massachusetts of the pending stormy weather today. (ValleyWX Pic)

 As strong low pressure continues to lift into Quebec tonight, a potent cold front is causing damage up and down the east coast. A variety of warnings are in effect for high winds, flooding and strong thunderstorms. Montreal received over 27mm of rain, along with winds over 60km/h. Here on the Seacoast of New Hampshire, winds have gusted over 30mph, and we have a high wind warning posted. Strong winds will reach over 50mph with heavy rain tonight. Another threat will come from high surf up against the seawall right across the street from my condo. Some ocean overwash is possible during high tide around midnight. Should be an interesting night. Power outages are also a big problem in New York and Vermont with thousands in the dark tonight.

Strong winds & heavy rain

Red sky in morning, sailor take warning...

A brilliant red sky has greeted us here on North Hampton Beach, but don't let the start to the day fool you along the east coast and into Quebec. An unusually strong and early fall storm is lifting across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. Along with it is heavy rain, in excess of 50mm, strong winds up to 90km/h, especially in the Richelieu Valley, as well as thunderstorms. The rain will move into Montreal shortly along with increasing gusty winds. It will be mild today up to 21C, before a cooling off behind the front overnight. Wednesday will be breezy and very fall like with a high of 13C.

This mornings beautiful sunrise in North Hampton Beach is a warning of things to come. (ValleyWX Pic)

Hampton Beach
Severe weather will impact a large area from New York to the deep south today. As the storm lifts into Quebec it will drag a potent cold front across the east. That front will be the focus for heavy thunderstorms with a quick 2-3 inches of rain from New Hampshire south this evening. Here along the coast we have a gale warning in effect for winds over 50mph with inland high wind advisories. I will post photos later tonight.

A series of warnings are in effect for heavy rain and high winds along the entire east coast and into southern Quebec. A special weather statement has been posted for eastern Ontario. It will be a wet and windy 24 hours, be safe. Now I am heading down I-95 to Boston.

Frosty start - now heavy rain

Enjoy today, it will be sunny and quite warm with highs pushing towards 26C in southern Quebec.We had a mild overnight in Montreal compared to some other regions. Scattered frost was reported across portions of Quebec into New England with lows ac cold as -1C in northern New Hampshire. Montreal only dropped to 13C, much warmer than the 4C (39F) on Sunday morning. As mentioned sunshine and warmth today, followed by a strong cold front and low pressure on Tuesday. Rain and southwest winds will increase across Ontario and Quebec and into New England on Tuesday with as much as 50mm of rain (2 inches) possible. Winds will gust up and over 50km/h. The rain will last most of Tuesday into the evening before things settle down mid-week and it turns a little colder again.

Compliments of distant Hurricane Nadine, the rolling surf in Hampton Beach on Sunday. (ValleyWX Pic)

ROAD SHOW
I have taken the blog on the road again. Actually I am writing this overlooking the beautiful Atlantic Ocean in North Hampton Beach, New Hampshire. The visibility is ideal this morning, so I can actually see the Isle of Shoals 5 miles offshore in the Atlantic along the Maine border. The rolling surf at low tide has attracted the usual collection of surfers, braving the 8C morning and 15C water. Honestly if I had a wet suit I would join them and not be writing this, a future investment for sure. The weather has been ideal down here, chilly but nice for September. The same cold front that will bring rain to Montreal will produce strong winds up to 30mph and heavy showers with some thunder here on Tuesday night. No worries, I love all weather, regardless of vacation time or not. Yesterday I spent the day walking the beach and in Newburyport, Mass. The waves were high, over 4 feet as distant Hurricane Nadine produced swells. Today will be calmer and warmer, off to Plum Island I go.

Thunderstorms late today - cool dry weekend

It is another beautiful morning here on L'Ile Perrot with sunshine and warm temperatures for mid-September. We managed another warm 80F plus day on Thursday to add to what has been just one spectacular summer. The high in Montreal was 29C (85F). We need rain however and we should receive a little later today. A cold front is to our west this morning over central Ontario and it should arrive by late evening. Before that we can expect another sunny, warm day with highs near 28C (83F). Winds will be on the increase out of the southwest as the front approaches and should gust to 50km/h in the St. Lawrence Valley. The front will arrive with a burst of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm from this evening into the wee hours of the morning. A few lingering showers may be around to start the weekend, but otherwise look for dry weather but much cooler with highs of 15 to 18C (60-65F) this weekend. The sunshine will last into Monday with warming temperatures into the 20's.

The last week of summer & a Leslie wrap-up

Just some of the images in the aftermath of Leslie in Newfoundland.

Here it is folks the last full weekend and week of summer. I am still walking my dog every morning in shorts. It has been a challenge on a couple of mornings, but for the most part I continue the streak that started some time in late April. The mornings have been a little chilly with temperatures around 11C to start the day. The dew has been heavy and the extra few hours of darkness have been giving the lawns a break from the hot and dry summer. I am seeing a little life as things start growing again. It is a sad irony that we are probably less than 1 month away from a heavy frost that will end the growing season in many areas. It does remain dry in southern Quebec with less than 50mm of rain for the month. It has been a dry year in Montreal with no one month reporting 100mm (4 inches) of rain. Even last weekend when many areas had heavy rainfall in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, Montreal managed a paltry 10mm.

The forecast looks great for today and most of Friday with warm sunshine and high temperatures well above normal at 28C. A cold front will usher in showers and thunderstorms late Friday and set the stage for a more fall like weekend with clouds on Saturday and sunshine Sunday. Highs will be around 20C both days.

A Newfoundland Power lineman inspects damage from Leslie. Power was out to nearly 100,000 homes. (Keith Gosse, The Telegram)

Tropical storm Leslie is all but gone, well on her way across the Atlantic, now as a post tropical storm. The system brought heavy wind damage to portions of southeast Newfoundland with flooding and heavy rain to central portions of that province as well as Nova Scotia. The strongest winds were reported at Cape Pine with gusts of 137km/h, close to hurricane force. The winds tore town trees, power lines, ripped siding from home and overturned trucks. The arrival of Leslie at low tide meant that coastal damage from the pounding surf was minimal. During the height of the storm power was out to over 100,000 homes, but a hard working Newfoundland Power team has since restored nearly all of that with only isolated pockets still affected. All power should be back online by the end of the week.

Leslie makes landfall on the Burin Peninsula

Tropical Storm Leslie making landfall in Newfoundland this morning. (NOAA)

8:42AM St. John's Newfoundland: SSE86 G 132km/h.

Tropical Storm Leslie has moved over 1000km in less than 24 hours after meandering in the Atlantic for over two weeks. The storm that once was moving slower than the average person walks is now racing northeast at 65km/h, with landfall now occurring in Newfoundland. Sheets of rain have been pelting St John's with the Airport reporting a wind gust in the last hour to 114km/h. Winds have been as high as 120km/h on the Avalon Peninsula. Rainfall rates have been in the order of 25mm (1 inch) per hour. Major flooding is being reported with some roads washed out, especially in the southeast corner of the Province. Newfoundland power is reporting over 12,000 without electricity. Ferry service has been cancelled and schools are closed for the day. The storm will race off to the northeast today with rain and wind slowly diminishing in intensity. The good news with Leslie is that she is making landfall at low astronomical tide so coastal damages will be less. Inland flooding will continue to be a problem as runoff sweeps into rivers and streams and rushes back to the Atlantic. This proved to be a major problem during Hurricane Igor.

Major flooding is occurring in southeast Newfoundland on the Burin and Avalon Peninsula. (CBC.ca)

Leslie heads for Newfoundland - Tornado in Drummondville

Tornado damage in Drummondville northeast of Montreal on Saturday. (CBC)

It was a busy weather weekend across eastern Canada with a strong frontal system and low pressure area sweeping across the area. The front produced strong winds close to 80km/h in southern Quebec along with damaging thunderstorms along its entire length from the Carolina's to Atlantic Canada. Some of the more notable damage occurred in the Drummondville region where Environment Canada has confirmed and F-0 tornado with damage to several homes and torn down trees and power lines. It was the 5th tornado in Quebec for 2012. The same front raced through Montreal around 4pm Saturday with 75km/h wind gusts. The wind and rain managed to cut power to over 90,000 Hydro Quebec customers across the province with most power being restored by Sunday morning. The front also produced several tornadoes in the US with one in the New York City metro area. The rare F-0 storm produced 100 to 120km/h winds and caused damage in the Queens and Brooklyn Burroughs of New York. The storm was also a rain producer with over 50mm reported in a wide swath of Ontario. In Montreal however the front was moving very quickly and only produced 10mm of rain as the city remains very dry.

A tornado taken from Coney Island sweeps across the NYC metro area. (NY Times)

Tropical Storm Leslie

Projected path of tropical storm Leslie.

Hurricane Watches are in effect for coastal areas of Newfoundland for the arrival of tropical storm Leslie on Tuesday morning. The storm which has been meandering in the Atlantic for two weeks, will finally accelerate off to the northeast today and rapidly approach Newfoundland. Aside form the coastal warnings, heavy rain and high wind warnings are in effect for the entire province along with rainfall warnings for Nova Scotia and P.E.I. The biggest threat will occur on Tuesday as winds increase to over 100km/h as does the the surf along the coast. Rainfall amounts will exceed 100mm (4 inches), with flooding likely. The area has been very wet over the last few days with as much as 75mm of rain. Leslie this morning has 60mph winds and is located 1395 kilometers from Cape Race, Newfoundland. The storm is moving to the northeast at 26km/h with an increase in forward speed expected. Some strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours with Leslie likely near hurricane status as she approaches Newfoundland.

Strong thunderstorms today in Montreal

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Deepening low pressure is moving into southwest Ontario this morning. This system is trailing a potent cold front behind it that has been the focus for severe thunderstorms. This morning we have already had some thunder in Montreal, but the main event will occur later this afternoon along the cold front. For that reason Environment Canada has taken the unusual step of issuing a severe thunderstorm watch several hours before the effective threat. The watch is in effect for most of southern Quebec from 2pm until 8pm. The main area of low pressure will lift into the Ottawa Valley with heavy rain, up to 50mm. This morning thunderstorms are spreading across Ontario and into the National Capital Region. The threat for severe weather also applies to New England. The strong storms will move into Vermont later today and this evening. In advance of the system this morning, strong southerly winds will develop and gust over 50km/h in Montreal and up to 70km/h in the Richelieu Valley. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 20's today before a sharp drop this evening and Sunday into the teens. It will feel like fall on Sunday with a cold northwest wind, showers and high of only 19C

Weekend Update

There is plenty to talk about on this Friday morning, and with just a couple of summer weekends left in 2012, I wish I had better news. Today will be the best of the next three with sunshine and continued warm temperatures near 27C (81F). We had another warm and humid day Thursday before isolated strong thunderstorms popped up in the afternoon. Many regions were affected but for the most part the Montreal area was spared with no rain her on L'Ile Perrot.

After the sunshine of today clouds will be on the increase as low pressure develops in the Ohio Valley and move towards Buffalo and eventually Ottawa. This system will bring with it a period of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms. The rain and thunderstorms will begin on Saturday with 20 to 40mm possible along the track and north of the system, less to the south. In addition to the rain strong winds will develop out of the southwest ahead of a potent cold front. The winds could exceed 50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h especially in Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. Along the cold front strong thunderstorms are possible into the evening hours Saturday night. I will update this potential for severe weather later today and again on Saturday. Also check the twitter feeds on the upper left side of this page. Sunday will be cloudy and cool with gusty northwest winds and highs below normal, near 18C.

The projected path of  Leslie by the National Hurricane Center takes her close to the Avalon Peninsula by next Wednesday.

Hurricane Leslie
Just one more note this morning, Environment Canada continues to monitor the very slow and erratic moving hurricane Leslie. The storm has 75mph winds this morning and is located about 415 miles southeast of Bermuda, roughly where it was 24 hours ago. There is lots of uncertainty with this storm but she could be affecting a portion of Atlantic Canada by the middle of next week. I will be watching Leslie very closely through the weekend and posting updates via the blog, Facebook and twitter.

Strong thunderstorms possible today in Ontario & Quebec

A weak cold front will move across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec this afternoon triggering some scattered showers and thunderstorms. While there is only a 40% chance of storms, any that do fire up will have the potential to produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Monitor the weather today for any watches or warnings that may be issued by Environment Canada. The weather remains warm and humid this morning after a high yesterday of 28C and humidex values well into the 30's, we only dropped into the high teens overnight. Temperatures will remain above normal today and Friday before a slight cooling trend into the weekend. After the showers today skies will clear overnight and set the stage for a sunny Friday. The weekend at this time looks wet as we begin the transition into a more fall like weather pattern.

A very impressive and powerful Hurricane Michael in the open waters of the Atlantic this morning with 115mph winds. This storm is no threat to land at this time.

TROPICAL UPDATE
The tropics are very active this week, starting with the remains of Isaac that brought very heavy rain to Atlantic Canada on Wednesday. Amounts were impressive with 50 to as much as 115mm of rain. We have two hurricanes in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricane Leslie has 75mph winds and is strengthening and forecast to move near Bermuda before possibly affecting Newfoundland by early next week. The storm is moving very slowly northward this morning at 1 mph, located about 440 miles from Bermuda. Leslie is producing pounding surf and riptides along the east coast of the US from the Carolinas northward into New England. Further to the east is powerful hurricane Michael located about 1020 miles southwest of the Azores. This storm is also crawling along in the open waters with no threat to land at this time. Michael is a strong category 3 storm with 115mph winds. Finally in an area that does not need more rain and wind, we have a low pressure area in the northern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana. This system has a 50% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours. Forecasters expect it to drift southeast into the Gulf of Mexico.

Flooding rains in southern Ontario

Flooding in the greater Toronto area from torrential rain on Tuesday. (CTV News)

Low pressure is moving eastward along the Quebec/Vermont border this morning after bringing a swath of very heavy rain to the region late Tuesday and overnight. Rainfall amounts were impressive with 44mm at Toronto, 100mm (4 inches) at Markham, 91mm at Kingston, 35mm at Kemptville, 54.4mm at St Anicet, Quebec and just over 20mm here on L'Ile Perrot. The heaviest rain in Quebec fell along the US border with between 50 and 75mm (2-3 inches) of rain from Valleyfield east into the Sherbrooke area. Rain continues this morning in extreme southeast Quebec, but it is tapering off. In its wake it will be another humid and muggy day with the threat for isolated showers and temperatures up to 26C.

For many reporting stations yesterday's rain was more than what had fallen in the entire month of August. Montreal only had 48.2mm of rain officially for August, so the 20mm on Tuesday was more than welcome.

Heavy rain moves over region

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

Low pressure over upstate New York is tapping into the moisture from former Hurricane Isaac and is pelting the area tonight. The heaviest rain was expected to remain over New England but has moved into Ontario and Quebec. It was a very humid day with heavy rain in southern Ontario. That rain has now spread into Quebec with 10mm here on L'Ile Perrot to 9pm. Amounts were impressive today in Ontario with between 25 and 75mm (1 to 3 inches).

Heavy rain warnings are in effect for the area south of the St. Lawrence River to the US border. Total amounts by morning could easily exceed 50mm (2 inches) especially in places like Vaudreuil, Valleyfield and Huntingdon as well as the Eastern Townships. Some thunderstorms are also possible overnight. If that amount falls, it will be more than what had been observed during the entire month of August.

Unsettled week ahead

Labor Day Weekend has come and gone and now meteorologically speaking, we are into the Fall season. However you could not tell that by this weekends weather and this morning's temperatures as Montreal is already at 21C (70F). We enjoyed sunshine for most of the holiday weekend with highs well above normal over 27C (80F).

Tropical moisture from the remains of Isaac as well as a frontal system will start to impact southern Quebec today with showers developing at anytime. The showers will increase in coverage late today as low pressure slides across southern Vermont. The heaviest rain will be confined to New England where 1 to 2" (25-50mm) are expected. Those amounts will taper of sharply in Ontario and Quebec with no more than 13mm (0.5") expected at this time. The balance of the week will remain rather muggy with scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Temperatures will remain in the mid 20's for daytime highs and upper teens for overnight lows. The normal high/low for Montreal for this date is 22/11C (72/52F).

Heavy rain floods neighborhoods just north of  downtown Washington DC on Sunday night. More flooding is  possible today as tropical moisture from Isaac hangs around. (Washington Post)

As mentioned the tropical moisture from what is left of Isaac is moving across the eastern US today. Heavy rain is forecast across Washington DC northeast into New York City with isolated flash flooding possible.