Tropical Storm Elsa to remain south of Montreal

Heavy rain from tropical storm Elsa deluged Key West, Florida on Tuesday. Close to 100mm of rain fell across south Florida, with some flooding reported but otherwise only minor damage. (The Key West Citizen)

Early Wednesday, tropical storm Elsa, the little storm that could, was located 55km west of Cedar Key, Florida in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. After dumping heavy rain on Cuba and claiming at least three lives across the Caribbean region, Elsa moved into south Florida late Tuesday. For a few hours, the storm regained hurricane strength, with 120km/h winds before weakening slightly early Wednesday.

As of 8am Wednesday morning, Elsa was moving north at 22km/h, with 105km/h winds. The system continues to produce very heavy rain, coastal flooding and gusty winds from the central Florida coast into southern Georgia. Elsa should make landfall in the Big Bend region later this morning, before moving northeast into the Carolinas and Virginia. Rainfall will be the big story with Elsa, with 75 to 150mm of rain possible along the path.

By late Thursday the storm will likely move back over the open water of the western Atlantic before a second landfall on Cape Cod and a third into Nova Scotia. Montreal will likely remain on the northern edge of the system, with some gusty northeast winds 20-40km/h funnelling down the St. Lawrence Valley. Steady rain is forecast for southern Quebec on Thursday, but this will come from a frontal boundary moving across the Great Lakes and New England. No phasing between the boundary and Elsa is expected at this time. Some southern Quebec locations may see over 25mm of rain on Thursday. Temperatures as a result of the clouds, precipitation and northeast winds will remain very cool for July, only 16C (61F).

Conditions will improve in Montreal for the upcoming weekend, with clearing skies Saturday and high temperatures into the upper 20s.

The path of tropical storm Elsa will take her from the Gulf Coast of Florida into the middle Atlantic region, New England and eventually Atlantic Canada by the weekend. (NHC)