Wet and windy fall storm on the way for southern Quebec

A strong fall cold front will produce a wide variety of weather across southern Quebec and Ontario Wednesday into Thursday. Mild temperatures and strong southerly winds on Wednesday in Montreal, will be replaced by cold. blustery west winds and flurries by Thursday. Winds may gust as high as 90km/h. Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with 20 to 50mm across southern Quebec.

A special weather statement is in effect for the Montreal region for 10-20mm of rainfall and gusty south winds up to 80km/h during the day and evening hours Wednesday. Weather warnings have also been posted for the St. Lawrence Valley northeast of Montreal for heavy rain and some mixed precipitation. Meanwhile across northern New York and New England, wind advisories have been hoisted for Wednesday. Additional weather warnings may bee needed as the system evolves over the next 24 hours.

The culprit is a deepening area of low pressure across the upper Midwest, that is forecast to move across central Ontario towards James Bay on Wednesday, and then eastward across northern Quebec on Thursday. The storm will drag a strong cold front across the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec during the midday hours Wednesday.

Tuesday was a cloudy, chilly day in Montreal despite high pressure trying to nose into the region. Clouds will thicken and lower early Wednesday, as winds increase from the south gusting 50-70km/h. Rain should arrive by late morning, becoming heavy at times throughout the afternoon, before tapering off to flurries late in the evening as the cold air arrives. The temperature in Montreal will rise quickly Wednesday morning, up to 9C (49F), before dropping in the evening, back below the freezing point to -2C (29F) by Thursday morning. The high will struggle back to the freezing point Thursday. Thursday will blustery and chilly in the St. Lawrence Valley, with perhaps a few snow showers around. There may even be some isolated heavier snow squalls at times.

This storm is rather dynamic, producing a wide variety of weather across eastern North America. Heavy snow is falling across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Freezing rain and mixed precipitation is expected across central Ontario into portions of central Quebec. Strong winds are forecast for much of the eastern Seaboard and Northeast. Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes are occurring across the southern US from Louisiana and Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama. Some locations in Ontario and western New York will see another round of lake effect snow as colder air pours into the area behind the departing storm.

Milder temperatures and rain expected into the weekend

While Montreal received a rather tame 14.6cm of snow over the last week, parts of the Great Lakes were buried under metres of snow. Over 150cm (58 inches) of snow fell near Watertown, New York off Lake Ontario, while an incredible 207cm (81.5 inches) fell at Hamburg, south of Buffalo. The home of the Buffalo Bills, Orchard Park, received over 200cm, as much snow as Montreal receives in an entire winter. The photo above is a Lewis County plow struggling down a country road in the Town of Harrisville, northeast of Watertown. (New York State Association of Town Superintendents & Highways)

Our extended period of below normal temperatures and early winter weather is about to come to an end in Montreal. High temperatures have been rather chilly over the last week to ten days, well below the normal highs of 3C (38F) expected in late November.  If you did not like the early taste of winter, milder air and a period of rain is in our future. 

The weather has been a rather unsettled this week across southwestern Quebec, with a little bit of everything thrown in for good measure. Skies have been cloudy for the most part, with some sunny breaks at times, along with periods of very light snow or flurries. The snow has not amounted to much, with the bulk of the deeper moisture remaining closer to the Great Lakes in Ontario and across parts of New York State.

Only 14.6 cm of snow has fallen at Trudeau Airport over the past week, while over 200cm fell on portions of western New York, especially across the metro Buffalo south towns. Hamburg, New York recorded 81.5 inches of snow, an incredible 207cm over a three day period. From this one lake-effect storm, Hamburg and Orchard Park received as much snow as Montreal expects in an average winter. The long-term average for Montreal is 209cm (82.5 inches). Recent years have seen even less, with only 150 to 175cm falling during each of the last three winters. 

The historic lake-effect snowstorm spilled onto the Canadian side of the border last Saturday, impacting the 401 corridor from Kingston to Cornwall. Locations close to the Thousand Islands region received nearly 25cm. Highway 401 was a mess in several locations, with multiple accidents reported. Along the Lake Huron shoreline as well as off Lake Erie, between 30 and 60cm fell.

All that snow is just a memory now as a warmer weather pattern is expected over the next week. High pressure will provide us with clearing skies Wednesday, followed by a sunny, mild Thursday. Expect high temperatures above the freezing point to 4C (39F). On Friday, a frontal boundary will deliver clouds and light rain, possibly changing to snow showers late in the evening. Temperatures will be mild, up to 6C (43F). After a fair day Saturday, a more potent weather system will arrive for Sunday into Monday. The storm, originating from Texas, will pass to the west of Montreal, allowing for milder air and rain. As the storm lifts to out north and east, colder air will arrive allowing the precipitation to taper off to flurries. I will have more details on this storm as we draw closer to the weekend.

Historic Lake Effect snowstorm to deliver some snow to southern Quebec

Heavy lake effect snow off Lake Erie has piled up over 50cm overnight in the suburbs south of downtown Buffalo. Light snow from the Lake Ontario snow band will reach extreme southwestern Quebec today and Saturday. (Photo via Twitter @AnthonyFarnell) Anthony Farnell is the Chief Meteorologist for Global News.

Light snow falling across extreme southwestern Quebec Friday morning is from the lake effect snow band off Lake Ontario impacting western New York and portions of southern Ontario. This band of snow is forecast to be exceptionally intense today into the weekend, as it delivers as much as 100cm (40 inches) of snow to the regions around Watertown, New York. A second band off Lake Erie will deliver just as much snow to Buffalo and the suburbs south of the city.

As far as southern Quebec is concerned, the snow will be very intermittent and scattered in nature over the next 24-36 hours, primarily falling from Ile Perrot southwest into eastern Ontario and south to the New York State border. Expect 2cm to as much as 8cm in the most persistent bands, especially on Saturday. In Ontario, near-whiteout conditions are possible along Highway 401 west of Brockville towards Kingston as the band lifts north across the St. Lawrence Valley. In some locations 20 to 30cm of fresh snow is possible. Gusty winds will create areas of blowing snow. 

In Lake effect snow, conditions can change quickly from sunny skies to heavy snow and strong winds within a few kilometres.

Off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, a second band is forecast to move well inland across central Ontario, possibly reaching the Ottawa region late Saturday.

Off Lake Erie, a heavy band of snow has been pounding the region south of Buffalo since late Thursday. Overnight, very heavy snow fell across western New York, with 19cm in Buffalo, 45cm in Orchard Park and 50cm in Hamburg. The snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning at times as well as strong winds up to 70km/h. A state of emergency is in effect for portions of western New York through the weekend. On Friday, schools are closed, along with restrictions on transportation. The NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns scheduled for 1pm Sunday, has been moved to Detroit.

Lake effect snow is also expected in the Niagara region of Ontario as well as the north shore of Lake Erie from Long Point to Fort Erie. 

The lake effect snow is being caused by gusty west and southwest winds blowing unseasonably cold air across the wide-open warmer lakes. Conditions should begin to improve by Sunday as the bands shift south and begins to dissipate.

Consider postponing any travel along Highway 401 into Ontario as well as Interstate 81 and 90 in New York today through Sunday.

All of a sudden the weather feels like mid-winter in Montreal, with the coldest morning lows of the season and a fresh blanket of snow on the ground Friday morning. Gusty west winds, chilly temperatures near -1C (30F) and flurries are expected into the weekend. (ValleyWeather Photo)

First snow of the season falling across the Montreal region

The morning commute has been challenging in the greater Montreal region, as the first snow of the season falls. Expect 5-10cm of west snow today, accompanied by gusty northeast winds. More snow is forecast south and east of the city, up to 25cm locally. (Valley Weather Photo)

Snow has been falling steadily over southern Quebec for the last few hours, with 3cm on the ground here on Ile Perrot as of 9am. Low pressure is lifting across Lake Ontario while weakening, with a second storm system developing along the east coast. That storm will move northeast along the New England coast today into Thursday. The result will be around 10cm of wet snow for Montreal, more east of the city in the Townships and Quebec City region. 

Roads have quickly become snow covered Wednesday morning in Montreal, along with reduced visibility. There have been a rash of accidents across the region, including a six vehicle pile-up on Highway 50 near Grenville, closing that stretch of road in both directions. We are marginally cold for snow, sitting at 0.2C here on Ile Perrot. Temperatures will remain near the freezing point over the next 24 hours or so. Gusty northeast winds between 20-40km/h are making it feel rather raw outdoors today. Total accumulations will be in the 5-10cm range across eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec, with 10-20cm south and east of the city.

The heaviest snow moved into the Montreal metro region just in time for the morning commute. The snow is expected to continue through the afternoon hours. (Valley Weather Photo)

The snow should taper off this evening, but expect flurries to persist into Thursday, as we have a very cold, damp flow of air off the Great Lakes. That flow will produce epic lake effect snow in western New York and parts of Ontario. If you have travel plans along Highway 401 or Interstate 81, keep this in mind and plan ahead.

Up to 10cm of snow Wednesday for metro Montreal

The first snow of the season is forecast across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario tonight and Wednesday. Expect snow covered, icy roads for the morning commute on Wednesday. My suggestion is you work from home if you do not have your snow tires on. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Special Weather Statement for southern Quebec.

Winter Weather Advisory for upstate New York and Vermont

Snowfall Warning for the Eastern Townships and Beauce

If you do not have your snow tires on, my advice is that you work from home on Wednesday.

Today will be the calm before the storm, with sunshine and highs around 1C (34F). Clouds will begin to thicken up and lower this evening in response to two low pressure systems, one over the Great Lakes and a stronger developing storm along the east coast. The east coast storm will become the main system, moving northeast into coastal New England on Wednesday.

Marginally cold air will be pulled into the St. Lawrence Valley, cold enough for the first snowfall of the season. Snow should begin in Montreal before the Wednesday morning commute, with temperature right around freezing. Unfortunately it looks like the commute could be a mess, as steady snow is forecast with a few centimetres down by 8am. The snow will continue most of the day, with 5-10cm forecast across the Ottawa Valley, up to 10cm in Montreal, and 15 to 25cm for the Townships, and elevated locations along the US border.

The snow will taper off to flurries late in the day. Temperatures will be at or slightly above freezing on Wednesday in Montreal, dropping down to -1C overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday will be blustery and cold, with steady temperatures and scattered flurries.

Once this storm moves east into Atlantic Canada, a strong westerly flow of cool air will become established across the Great Lakes, producing heavy lake effect snow on Friday and into the weekend. Some locations in Ontario and western New York may be measuring snow in feet. For us, we will remain cloudy and chilly, with scattered flurries into Saturday.

Winter is here folks, the unprecedented warm weather at the start of the month is just a distant memory now. Hopefully many used that time to prepare for the snowy, colder weather.

First snow of the season on the horizon for southern Quebec

Some parts of central and southern Ontario measured the first snow of the season over the weekend as the lake effect snow machine fired up. Montreal should see the first measurable snow this week, along with below normal temperatures. This is in sharp contrast to the record warmth we experienced to start the month of November.

Special Weather Statement in effect for metro Montreal and southern Quebec.

The remnants of tropical storm Nicole dumped very heavy rain across southern Quebec to start the weekend. Between 40 and 80mm fell in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley, with 66.8mm falling at Trudeau Airport. More importantly the storm ushered in cold air on the backside of the system, with a major pattern change now taking place.

Temperatures will be running below normal for at least the next week and perhaps longer, a stark contrast to the very warm November we have had so far. Highs will be at or just above the freezing point with lows well below, as cold as -5C (23F). Additionally, snow is expected this week. The airport actually measured a trace on Sunday as some wet snow mixed in with the showers. It was the first flakes of the season. More significant snow is expected this week across Ontario and Quebec.

Low pressure over Texas is expected to move towards the Ohio Valley and across Lake Erie by late Tuesday. Meanwhile a secondary low is forecast to develop along the Delaware coast, becoming the primary system. This storm will deepen and pass across coastal New England pulling in colder air across southern Quebec.

Snow is expected to begin late Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. Temperatures will be close to the freezing point in Montreal or slightly above, so the snow will be wet. It is early to pinpoint exact amounts, but it looks like a good 5cm for the city, with up to 10cm across the Townships, possibly more at higher elevations. Expect slippery, possibly snow covered roads for the first time this season during the Wednesday morning commute across metro Montreal. The snow will stay around as cold weather is expected into next weekend, along with flurries.

Tropical Storm Nicole to impact southern Quebec

Spectacular fall weather persists in Montreal, with a few more days of above-normal temperatures forecast. Unfortunately clouds will thicken by late Friday, with the approach of tropical storm Nicole from the southern US. Behind Nicole, much colder air will begin to move into our region. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Montreal has experienced record warmth this fall, so why not a tropical storm as well. The remains of Tropical Storm Nicole will be moving across central New England by late Friday afternoon, delivering a swath of heavy rain and gusty winds into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

On Wednesday afternoon, Nicole was located 280 kilometres east of West Palm Beach, Florida, moving west at 19km/h. Hurricane warnings are in effect along the coast, with tropical storm warnings in effect for most of the state. Nicole had winds of 110km/h (70 mph), just shy of hurricane strength. The storm is moving across the Bahamas today and should make landfall along the east-central Florida coast tonight. Nicole is expected to intensify and become a minimal hurricane prior landfall later tonight. 

The system is rather large with tropical force winds extending outward over 700 kilometres from the center of the storm.

A NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Nicole located over the Bahamas Wednesday afternoon. Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall in the wee hours Thursday morning near Port Saint Lucie, Florida. (NOAA)

Once inland, Nicole is expected to gradually weaken while turning northwest and eventually north and northeast as the center moves across Florida and into Georgia and the Carolinas late Thursday. By Friday, the storm will be transitioning into a strong post-tropical storm while moving across central New England towards Atlantic Canada.

At this time the we expect Nicole to transport abundant tropical moisture northward into southern Quebec, with 25 to 75mm (1 to 3 inches) of rain possible. The heaviest rain would be late Friday evening into the overnight hours. Gusty northeast winds are also possible across southern and eastern Quebec, in the 50 to 70km/h range late Friday. 

The exact locations of the heaviest rain and strongest winds will need some fine-tuning. There are still many details to work out, with the storm still off the Florida coast. This forecast will be updated and warnings may be needed for several parts of our region.

Until then, expect sunny, mild weather with highs well-above normal once again both Thursday and Friday. Much colder air will return to southern Quebec by Sunday and into early next week.

Unprecedented warmth establishes dozens of high temperature records across eastern Canada

It will certainly be a return to reality for anyone staying up overnight into the wee hours Tuesday morning to view the full lunar eclipse. Conditions in Montreal will be clear, but windy and cold, with temperatures around 3C (38F), a far cry from the record warmth this weekend.(NASA)

An incredible surge of warm air straight form the Gulf of Mexico, established dozens of new record high temperatures across eastern Canada over the weekend. From Ontario to Atlantic Canada, high temperatures were up to 20 degrees above normal. In southern Quebec, record highs and lows were observed at several locations. The same was true across Ontario, with Toronto recording it's warmest November day ever at 25.2C (77.4F), surpassing the 1950 record of 25C.

At Trudeau Airport in Dorval, the high on Friday was 20.6C (69F), surpassing the previous high of 18.3C (65F) set in 1956. Saturday, featured July like warmth, with a high of 24.3C (76F) and a low of 12.4C (54F), both records for the date. The previous record for November 5 was set all the way back in 1938 (21.1C). Saturday's high was also the warmest November day ever recorded in Montreal, surpassing the November 6, 1948 high of 21.7C (71F). The overnight low into Sunday morning was also a record for the warmest November night at 14.9C (59F). On Sunday many locations established record highs again despite the clouds and showers. Trudeau Airport reached 21.4C (71F), just missing the 1948 record of 21.7C. However other locations in the city, including at my home on Ile Perrot, did reach the record temperature. I recorded a high of 22C (72F), very early in the morning on Sunday, making it feel like an August morning walking the dog.

The above-normal temperatures are persisting Monday morning, as we are already at 14C (56F). The end is in sight however. Cooler air will arrive this evening on gusty northwest winds up to 50km/h. Temperatures will drop down to 2C (36F) tonight, still above normal for early November, but a little more seasonable for sure.

On Tuesday, we can expect a much colder day, with gusty winds and a high of only 8C (48F). The normal high/low for early November in Montreal is 7C/-1C. After a brief warm up late this week, much colder air and even a few flurries will arrive by the weekend. This is just a small part of a wicked cold snap that has been occurring across western Canada. While we have been enjoying summer weather, the west has been in the deep freeze, with lows in the minus teens and highs well below freezing. Widespread snowfall has also occurred across Alberta and Saskatchewan, moving east into Manitoba.

Lunar Eclipse

One final note, the clear skies tonight will allow for a spectacular view of the lunar eclipse. The eclipse of the full Beaver moon will begin at 3:02AM in Montreal Tuesday morning, reach totality at 5:59AM and end by 7:49AM.

Another round of record-breaking warmth for Montreal

Montreal has been enjoying very warm temperatures so far this fall along with little in the way of precipitation. This trend will persist into the upcoming weekend, with several high temperature records set to fall.

Strong high pressure moving across southern Quebec Thursday afternoon, is allowing for rapidly warming temperatures from this mornings chilly lows. The temperature dropped to 0C (32F) in Montreal under clear skies and calm winds early this morning, but has since warmed to 17C (63F) as of 2pm.

We are in for another stretch of record-breaking warmth as southerly winds increase on Friday and into the weekend. The high on Friday is forecast at 21C (70F), likely surpassing the previous benchmark for the date of 18.3C (65F) set in 1956. On Saturday, we are expecting even warmer conditions on gusty southwest winds, with a high near 24C (76F). This would smash the record for Saturday of 19C (66F) set in 1988. Clouds will increase Saturday evening, with a chance for showers on Sunday. The mild weather will persist however, with highs in the middle to upper teens forecast through Monday.

The warm and dry conditions are just a continuation of the weather southwestern Quebec experienced in October. The average high in Montreal last month was 10.4C, well above the normal of 8.5C. We had only 44% of the normal precipitation, with 40mm of rain falling at Trudeau Airport. The long-term normal is 91mm. We had no snow again last month, a trend dating back to the last October snowfall in 2018.

Temperatures were above normal across the entire province of Quebec during October, a trend that is expected to continue well into November. (Environment Canada)

While we continue enjoy temperatures more similar to late August, western Canada will be shivering in sub-freezing weather. Below normal temperatures have swept across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and are moving east into Manitoba. Accompanying the cold has been another round of snow. More snow and cold weather is expected during the upcoming week as a deep trough carves itself out across western North America.

A modified version of that cold air will arrive in Montreal by mid-week with highs dropping down into the single digits by Wednesday and lows below freezing. Enjoy this weekend and take advantage of the weather to finish any outdoor chores that may remain before the snow flies. 

While the weather will turn colder, I am not seeing any major storms on the horizon at this time for Montreal.