Tropical Storm Nicole to impact southern Quebec

Spectacular fall weather persists in Montreal, with a few more days of above-normal temperatures forecast. Unfortunately clouds will thicken by late Friday, with the approach of tropical storm Nicole from the southern US. Behind Nicole, much colder air will begin to move into our region. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Montreal has experienced record warmth this fall, so why not a tropical storm as well. The remains of Tropical Storm Nicole will be moving across central New England by late Friday afternoon, delivering a swath of heavy rain and gusty winds into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

On Wednesday afternoon, Nicole was located 280 kilometres east of West Palm Beach, Florida, moving west at 19km/h. Hurricane warnings are in effect along the coast, with tropical storm warnings in effect for most of the state. Nicole had winds of 110km/h (70 mph), just shy of hurricane strength. The storm is moving across the Bahamas today and should make landfall along the east-central Florida coast tonight. Nicole is expected to intensify and become a minimal hurricane prior landfall later tonight. 

The system is rather large with tropical force winds extending outward over 700 kilometres from the center of the storm.

A NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Nicole located over the Bahamas Wednesday afternoon. Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall in the wee hours Thursday morning near Port Saint Lucie, Florida. (NOAA)

Once inland, Nicole is expected to gradually weaken while turning northwest and eventually north and northeast as the center moves across Florida and into Georgia and the Carolinas late Thursday. By Friday, the storm will be transitioning into a strong post-tropical storm while moving across central New England towards Atlantic Canada.

At this time the we expect Nicole to transport abundant tropical moisture northward into southern Quebec, with 25 to 75mm (1 to 3 inches) of rain possible. The heaviest rain would be late Friday evening into the overnight hours. Gusty northeast winds are also possible across southern and eastern Quebec, in the 50 to 70km/h range late Friday. 

The exact locations of the heaviest rain and strongest winds will need some fine-tuning. There are still many details to work out, with the storm still off the Florida coast. This forecast will be updated and warnings may be needed for several parts of our region.

Until then, expect sunny, mild weather with highs well-above normal once again both Thursday and Friday. Much colder air will return to southern Quebec by Sunday and into early next week.