Is winter over for Montreal?

The very mild weather over the past week has resulted in massive potholes opening up across many parts of the city and suburbs. The freeze/thaw cycle has been brutal. The weather over the next week or so will remain mild, with big temperatures swings from the overnight hours into the daytime, unfortunately the perfect recipe for even more potholes.

A Special Weather Statement has been posted for southern Quebec for a mix of freezing rain and snow Thursday night into Friday morning. Amounts will be determined based on the final track of the storm.

Is winter over for Montreal? The short answer is no. The days are certainly getting longer and the recent mild weather and melting snow has been a welcome relief after the frigid weather to start February, however we still have plenty of winter left. That statement will not be evident over the next 36 hours as very mild air streams northward into the St. Lawrence Valley, but a return to more seasonable temperatures and snowfall is anticipated by late next week. 

As I write this post, Montreal has already reached 5.5C (42F), close to the record high for the date set 141 years ago in 1882 at 7.2C (45F). A few showers are moving into the Montreal area along a warm front, but that will be followed by some breaks in the clouds Wednesday afternoon, and perhaps just enough sunshine to push us over the long-standing record. The normal high should be around -4C (25F).

In terms of practical weather, a compact area of low pressure will move well north of Montreal over the next 24 hours, bringing some clouds and light rain to the region. Gusty winds are also forecast, up to 60km/h at times. Above freezing temperatures will prevail through late Thursday evening, before the next system arrives.  This storm will be much stronger than the current, passing very close to Montreal overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Rain will develop late Thursday, changing to freezing rain and snow as colder air is drawn in from the northwest. Daytime highs will be mild today and Thursday, up to 7C, before a strong cold front arrives late Thursday. Temperatures will drop quickly through Friday morning, down to -5C (23F) in Montreal, rising very little on Friday. After very cold morning lows Saturday, warmer, quiet weather returns for the balance of the weekend, persisting into early next week.

Dangerous ice conditions

One more note on the mild weather of late, ice conditions remain highly variable at best and downright dangerous at worst. January was a very mild month, with nearly half the days in Montreal at or above 0C. February has been just as warm. The warm temperatures have resulted in a rise in area waterways helping to make the ice very unstable. Over the weekend, three individuals ice fishing on Lake Champlain in northern Vermont, died after falling through thin ice. My best advice would be to stay away from any body of water in the Montreal region and points south.