Major flooding stabilizes in Quebec/Vermont - but more rainy humid weather expected

Water surges along the Montmorency River near the town of Saint-Brigette-de-Laval northeast of Quebec City. Flooding has forced numerous families from their homes in parts of southern Quebec after torrential rain fell Monday and Tuesday. (Photo via Facebook)

The historic flooding across Vermont and parts of southeastern Quebec is stabilizing on Wednesday as rivers fall near or below flood stage. The severe flooding was the result of a months worth of rain in leas than 48 hours across the region. Montreal remained on the western edge of the heaviest precipitation, and still managed 25mm to locally 50mm of rainfall. Across the Townships, Quebec City, the Charlevoix region and into Vermont and New York, between 100 and 200mm of rain was reported.

In Quebec, dozens of families have been evacuated along the Saint-Francois River in Sherbrooke, with several homes flooded. A local state of emergency is in effect in Sainte-Brigitte-de-Laval after the Montmorency River surged through parts of the community, washing out roads and flooding homes.

The Lamoille and Gihon Rivers combined to produce catastrophic flooding in Johnson, Vermont. Between 100-200mm of rain fell in 48 hours across the state producing severe flooding. All 14 counties in the state have received a federal disaster declaration. The water is receding slowly on Wednesday but sadly more rain is in the forecast. (Reddit Photo via Twitter)

South of the border, the entire state of Vermont has been declared a federal disaster area. Several agencies including FEMA are on the ground Wednesday assessing the damage caused by major flooding. Communities along the spine of the Green Mountains were the hardest hit, with the Town of Ludlow basically cut off from the rest of the state. Damage is severe, with dozens of roads in the state damaged or impassable. Every dwelling in downtown Montpelier, the state capital, sustained water damage after the Winooski River left its banks. Images are heartbreaking, showing the worst flooding since tropical storm Irene in 2011.

The good news is that outside of a few isolated showers on Wednesday, we actually have a relatively dry day ongoing. Temperatures and humidity levels will be more comfortable for the clean-up effort to begin. Unfortunately it will not last.

The same stubborn upper level low over Hudson Bay will continue to control the weather into next week, with fronts pinwheeling into the region. A warm front Thursday will generate more showers and thunderstorms, followed by the arrival of a cold front late in the day. Showers and thunderstorms will persist into Friday across the entire region. The temperature and humidity will also be on the rise making the outdoors rather uncomfortable into the weekend. More showers and storms are likely both Saturday and Sunday.

As far as new rainfall amounts are concerned, between 15-25mm is very possible in the most persistent thunderstorms by late Friday. Some areas in hard-hit central and southern Vermont may have as much as 50mm (2 inches) by Friday night. Keep in mind the ground is beyond saturated across most of the region (excluding Montreal) and any rain will cause sharp rises in waterways as well as potential flash flooding. Also with all the flood water flowing eventually into Lake Champlain, the lake is expected to rise by as much as 30-45cm (1 to 1.5 feet). This will also help to increase levels and flows in the Richelieu Valley.