Dry weather persists in Montreal with mild temperatures...for now

Another beautiful October morning on Lac St-Louis last weekend, as the sun burns off the fog after a frosty start to the day. The photo submitted by one of our readers on the West Island, Alex Giuliano.

This October in Montreal has been simply spectacular, with seasonable to mild temperatures along with plenty of sunshine. Trudeau Airport has measured 75.6mm of rain for October, with most of that falling on only 2 days. The overnight period has been chilly as is to be expected in October, with frequent frost.

As we close out the month and celebrate Halloween, we can expect a windy warm Thursday. Temperatures on gusty southwest winds are warming quickly from morning lows near the freezing point. High temperatures in southern Quebec will be close to 20C (68F) Thursday afternoon, well above the normal high of  9C (48F).

Clouds will be on the increase as a weak cold front moves into our region late Thursday. Gusty southwest winds are forecast in the 20-40km/h range. A few sprinkles or showers are possible late Thursday into Friday, along with dropping temperatures. Friday will be a typical fall day, clouds, gusty winds and temperatures near 9C (48F).

Halloween and the end of Daylight Saving Time looks ideal, with sunshine all day an seasonable highs near 10C (50F). Trick or Treat time will be fair, with temperatures around 3C or 4C. Dress warm and be safe!

Sunrise over Ile Perrot on Thursday, October 29. Despite the frosty start, we can expect highs to reach well into the teens in Montreal on gusty southwest winds. (Stephen Balena)

Arctic Air?

As we look ahead to the start of November, our dry stretch will persist. The first week looks mild, with above normal temperatures in the middle teens. There are some indications of a significant pattern change mid-month as warm air rides into the Arctic region, dislodging or collapsing a piece of the polar vortex and sending it south into out latitudes. There are many unknowns here as to what influence the current super El Nino will have on that airmass. However, as we have seen already across western Canada, snow is not afraid to fall, despite the current El Nino conditions.

Time will tell, but at this point expect temperatures to fall closer to normal values by the middle part of the month. This pattern bears watching, as it may introduce a more active storm track, along with our first wintry precipitation of the season for Montreal.