Record warmth forecast for southern Quebec

A misty, mild November morning across southern Quebec, with record warm overnight lows translating into a very warm daytime high of 22C (72F).

Record-breaking November warmth is underway across southern Quebec, with the temperature already at 19C (66F) in Montreal early Wednesday morning, on the way into the middle 20s. The morning low was only 12C (54F), surpassing the previous maximum morning low of 11C (52F) set back in 1977. The normal morning low for November 4th should be 0C (32F), with an average daytime high of only 8C (48F).

All of eastern Canada will feature well-above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Montreal is forecasting a high Wednesday of 22C (72F), the previous record high to beat is 20.6C (69F), set in 2022. We will likely establish another record tonight, with a very warm overnight low of 14C (56F) expected. The previous warmest low for the date was 10C (50F) set in 1975. Above normal temperatures are forecast through the next few days as our super El Nino fall weather persists.

High pressure will result in sunshine for Wednesday after some morning clouds and fog burn away. Very warm south and southwest winds will help temperatures soar quickly to record levels. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night, with showers forecast Thursday as low pressure skirts along the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will remain mild, with Thursday's high forecast at 18C (65F). Friday will feature clearing skies, before another low pressure moves along the east coast bringing Montreal clouds and showers for the weekend.

Temperatures will trend downward, but only back to normal levels by Sunday. The colder air that was expected for the middle of November seems to be delayed by a week or so, with forecasters now looking towards the end of the month for some arctic air to possibly be displaced and flow southward into the Great Lakes and east coast regions. Time will tell as we continue to navigate this unprecedented super El Nino fall and winter.

Dry weather persists in Montreal with mild temperatures...for now

Another beautiful October morning on Lac St-Louis last weekend, as the sun burns off the fog after a frosty start to the day. The photo submitted by one of our readers on the West Island, Alex Giuliano.

This October in Montreal has been simply spectacular, with seasonable to mild temperatures along with plenty of sunshine. Trudeau Airport has measured 75.6mm of rain for October, with most of that falling on only 2 days. The overnight period has been chilly as is to be expected in October, with frequent frost.

As we close out the month and celebrate Halloween, we can expect a windy warm Thursday. Temperatures on gusty southwest winds are warming quickly from morning lows near the freezing point. High temperatures in southern Quebec will be close to 20C (68F) Thursday afternoon, well above the normal high of  9C (48F).

Clouds will be on the increase as a weak cold front moves into our region late Thursday. Gusty southwest winds are forecast in the 20-40km/h range. A few sprinkles or showers are possible late Thursday into Friday, along with dropping temperatures. Friday will be a typical fall day, clouds, gusty winds and temperatures near 9C (48F).

Halloween and the end of Daylight Saving Time looks ideal, with sunshine all day an seasonable highs near 10C (50F). Trick or Treat time will be fair, with temperatures around 3C or 4C. Dress warm and be safe!

Sunrise over Ile Perrot on Thursday, October 29. Despite the frosty start, we can expect highs to reach well into the teens in Montreal on gusty southwest winds. (Stephen Balena)

Arctic Air?

As we look ahead to the start of November, our dry stretch will persist. The first week looks mild, with above normal temperatures in the middle teens. There are some indications of a significant pattern change mid-month as warm air rides into the Arctic region, dislodging or collapsing a piece of the polar vortex and sending it south into out latitudes. There are many unknowns here as to what influence the current super El Nino will have on that airmass. However, as we have seen already across western Canada, snow is not afraid to fall, despite the current El Nino conditions.

Time will tell, but at this point expect temperatures to fall closer to normal values by the middle part of the month. This pattern bears watching, as it may introduce a more active storm track, along with our first wintry precipitation of the season for Montreal. 

Spectacular fall weather for Montreal and southern Québec

Another spectacular sunrise over Ile Perrot on Thursday morning, in what has been a near-perfect stretch of fall weather across southern Quebec. (Valley Weather)

Montreal and southern Quebec continue to enjoy a long stretch of near-perfect fall weather. It does not get much better than this for October in Montreal. No precipitation has fallen since last Thursday, and with the exception of some clouds along a weak cold front Thursday, we have had nothing but sunshine.

Daytime temperatures have been seasonable, reaching into the low teens, while overnight lows have been cool, dropping very close to the freezing point for many locations. Here on Ile Perrot, we have had frost each of the last few mornings, with the growing season essentially coming to an end now.

The fall colours are also accelerating here in the city, with the current dry and cool weather. Most locations are at or past prime, with the leaves beginning to tumble to the ground quickly.

Looking ahead into the upcoming weekend and early next week, we have another strong ridge of high pressure that will arrive Friday, with nothing but sunshine forecast through next Tuesday. Temperatures will be cool, with daytime highs either side of 10C (50F) and morning lows at or slightly below freezing.

Get those snow tires on! Despite our nice weather of late, you know winter is on the way. This was the seen last Thursday north and east of Quebec City as the first snow fell in many parts of the province. (Surete du Quebec)

Behind Thursday afternoons cold front, some gusty north winds will prevail into Friday, adding to the chill in the air. Now is the time to prepare for winter. Mild or not, we will still have snow and ice to deal with as some parts of Quebec have already experienced.

For the second time in less than a month, portions of Highway 12 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were washed away. Sub-tropical storm Josephine will now bring hurricane force winds to the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada. (OBX Voice)

Sub-Tropical Storm Josephine

The aforementioned area of high pressure is helping to steer sub-tropical storm Josephine east into the open waters of the Atlantic. Josephine formed on Wednesday from what was a strong nor'easter located east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The barrier islands have been hammered all week by heavy surf and strong winds. The result has been significant damage to coastal highway 12 as well as some property damage. This is the second storm is less than one month to wash out portions of the highway that connects the fragile barrier islands along the North Carolina coast.

The forecast track of sub-tropical storm Josephine, expected to move south and east of Atlantic Canada through Sunday. (Canadian Hurricane Centre) 

Early Thursday morning Josephine was located 765 kilometres south, southwest of Halifax, with 100km/h winds. The storm was forecast to move northeast at 20km/h, while transitioning into a powerful extratropical low. Josephine will remain south and east of Atlantic Canada, however some clouds, gusty winds and heavy surf are likely for coastal Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, along with a few heavier rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  

Fall storm followed by the coldest air of the season

Dark, menacing clouds advance on the rising sun this past week on Ile Perrot. It certainly has felt like October all week in Montréal, with chilly temperatures, plenty of rain, drizzle and gusty winds. In terms of fall foliage, many locations in and around Montreal are nearing peak colour this weekend. (Valley Weather)

Strengthening low pressure is forecast to move across Lake Huron and down the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday, bringing with it some steady rainfall and gusty winds. A warm front will lift north towards the United States border on Friday morning, with a period of heavy rain likely ahead of it. Winds will veer to the northeast gusting at times up to 50km/h in Montreal during the morning hours. As the storm system shifts east of the city, winds will back to the southwest and eventually west, gusting up to 60km/h.

In terms of rainfall, we can expect another 15 to 25mm, to go along with our 20 to 40mm that fell on Tuesday. Temperatures will be quite chilly with this fall storm, with Montreal never really get into the warm sector. Expect highs on Friday near 9C (49F), dropping steadily behind the cold front to the freezing point by Saturday morning.

Some regions across central and northwest Quebec can even expect some snow on the backside of the low pressure, with as much as 10cm forecast for Chibougamau and the Saguenay region. Some flurries may even spread across the upper elevations of the Eastern Townships and Green Mountains into Saturday morning.

Saturday will be a breezy, cold day, with partial clearing and temperatures holding in the single digits. Saturday night may be the coldest of the fall so far, with lows expected below freezing for most locations, along with widespread frost, 0C to -2C for Montreal.

High pressure will build into the region on Sunday, with warming temperatures expected through Thursday, along with an extended period of dry weather. Highs will range from the lower teens Sunday to the middle and even upper teens by Thursday.

Stormy weather week for southern Quebec

The first frost of the season occurred on Saturday morning here on Ile Perrot. It was very light, with temperatures dropping to 1C (33F). A much colder airmass arrives by next weekend, with widespread frost, freezing temperatures and even some snow possible. (Valley Weather)

Heavy Rainfall Warning for Montreal for Tuesday.

October can be an interesting weather month, like April, with the seasons in full battle mode. Over the weekend, we had a major hurricane in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico, as well as one impacting the Gulf Coast. The first snow of the season fell across portions of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the remains of hurricane Rachel brought pounding surf and significant flash flood from California into Nevada.

In Montreal, Saturday was as nice a fall day as you can have, with widespread sunshine, light winds and seasonable highs in the teens. The good weather for Montreal has come to an end as clouds and showers are moving in along a weak cold front late Monday. 

That front will stall to our south over northern New England, and may even slowly move north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure will move along the front, tapping into moisture from the remains of Pacific hurricane Rachel. Steady rain and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, with as much as 40-60mm from Montreal south to the United States border and eastward into the Townships.

The showers may persist into Wednesday morning. The mild temperatures Monday, will be replaced by much cooler highs in the single digits Tuesday on gusty northeast winds up to 50km/h.

Some clearing is possible on Thursday before another, even stronger fall storm approaches southern Quebec by Friday. This storm will produce heavy rain and strong winds, followed by very cold temperatures Saturday and even some snowfall across parts of southern Quebec and New England. Expect a widespread frost and freezing temperatures, even in urban areas by Sunday morning.

Hurricane Isaias made landfall around 8pm Friday night near Destin, Florida. Very strong wind gusts, in excess of 100mph (160km/h), resulted in widespread damage and power outages along the Florida Gulf Coast. Many homes lost there roofs, like the one above in Pensacola Beach. (Weather Nation)

Hurricane Isaias

Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, Florida on Friday evening, resulting is significant wind damage and flooding. The hardest hit areas were across the western Florida panhandle from Pensacola west towards the Alabama border. Winds gusted over 100mph, producing significant structural damage and knocking power out to nearly one million residents across parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. 

Four deaths were blamed on the once Category 3 storm, the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 2026. Isaias weakened rapidly after landfall, but still had enough punch to spread heavy rain, thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes north into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic region. 

October thunderstorms rattle around southern Quebec - Isaias first hurricane of 2026

The third thunderstorm in less-than 12 hours moved across the region early Thursday morning. The storms produced lots of lightning but no severe weather was reported. They were fast moving, resulting in just 5-10mm of rain on average across the Montreal area. (Valley Weather)

Several rounds of thunderstorms crossed the Montreal region over the last 24 hours. That included some rare nocturnal October storms just after midnight, that put on quite a sound and light show. The storms were fast moving, and outside of some vivid lightning and gusty winds, only 5-10mm of rain fell. Lightning strikes did manage to shut down the weather weary REM commuter trains to the south shore for several hours Thursday morning.

Just enough instability in the atmosphere will be present again Friday afternoon for perhaps another isolated, non-severe storm. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible. Otherwise high pressure will build into the region for Saturday and most of Sunday, resulting in fair skies. 

Temperatures will start the forecast cycle chilly, only reaching 13C (55F) Friday after morning lows near 5C (41). We can expect warmer highs both Saturday and Sunday as southerly winds develop between a Bermuda high off the Atlantic coast, and the remnants of hurricane Isaias moving north from the Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio Valley. The warm south winds will push highs close to 20C (68F) in Montreal.

By Sunday night and into Thanksgiving Day, clouds and perhaps a few showers will begin moving north across New England and into southern Quebec from what is left of Isaias.

NOAA image of Hurricane Isaias in the southern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday.

Hurricane Isaias

It has been a record-breaking quite hurricane season in the Atlantic basin to date, with only nine named storms and the latest we have had to wait for a hurricane to form. That record was set way back on October 7, 1905. It took until 7pm Wednesday evening for the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic. Meanwhile the Pacific has recorded 19 storms, 9 of which have become hurricanes, 6 major storms, category 3 higher. The El Nino fueled Pacific hurricane season has resulted in over $682 million dollars in damage and 18 deaths.

Back to Isaias, as of Thursday evening the center of the strengthening storm was located in the Gulf of Mexico, 525 km south of the Mississippi River. The storm was moving northeast at 19km/h, with 160km/h winds, a category 2 hurricane. Isaias has prompted hurricane warnings along the Gulf coast from Florida to Mississippi. The storm should make landfall late Friday or in the pre-dawn hours Saturday, with a storm surge of 5-7 feet above sea level along the immediate coast.

Heavy rain, in excess of 150mm, will spread inland across the southeastern United States, north into the Ohio Valley.

That four-letter word is back across parts of Quebec - SNOW!

The calm after the storm on Friday, October 2. Morning rain and gusty winds gave way to a spectacular sky by day's end. (ValleyWeather)

A strong cold front has cut across the province early Monday morning, ushering in the coldest airmass of the season so far, on gusty northwest winds. High temperatures have been reached already, around 13C (55F), with the mercury expected to fall into the single digits, as low as 5C (41F) by Tuesday morning for Montreal. Along with the chilly air will be northwest winds in the 30-50km/h range. Parts of the province north of Montreal, including the higher elevations of the northern Laurentians may see the first snowflakes of the year, as well as the mountain peaks towards the Vermont border.

Don't panic just yet in Montreal, but now is the time to plan. I have my winter tire appointment booked already at Gordons in NDG, no point in avoiding the inevitable.  There is often a sharp contrast from September into October across Quebec and Ontario. September for the most part is just another summer month now. Weather conditions change rather abruptly in October, with the average high dropping from 16C (61F) at the start of the month, down to 9C (49F) by Halloween. Average lows drop to near the freezing point by months end.

More construction in Montreal as this ghoulish crew assembles a Halloween display on Ile Perrot. October weather is in sharp contrast to September, with frost, northwest winds and usually our first snowflake or two occurring. Time will tell what a Super El Nino October has in store for Montreal. (ValleyWeather)

This past September was not unusually warm, but we still managed an average temperature of 16.6C, which was 0.6 degrees above normal at Trudeau Airport in Montreal. September was very dry across the province of Quebec, with many regions running significant moisture deficits. Montreal measured only 50.6mm of rain, most of that falling on September 8-9. The long-term average is 89.2mm.

Montreal can expect a variable week, blustery and chilly to start, a brief warm up midweek, followed my clouds and cooler temperatures by Friday. Typical October weather for southern Quebec, with a vibrant mix of sun and clouds against the backdrop of vivid foliage that is starting to spread quickly. 

Clouds and showers are possible midweek, but no major weather systems are expected. The gusty northwest winds will likely prevent frost from forming in Montreal on Monday and Tuesday, but regions northwest of the city may see frost Tuesday morning.

Montreal remains on northwest edge of powerful Nor'Easter

A powerful Nor'Easter resembling a hurricane meanders off the east coast of the United States over the weekend. The storm produced widespread coastal flooding and damage from New England to North Carolina. (NOAA)

A powerful coastal storm has pushed clouds and showers into Montreal early Monday morning. The storm has been meandering off the eastern coast of the United States, hammering the region with high surf, strong winds and heavy rain. The coastal impacts have been significant, with widespread damage and flooding reported. Power is out to over 30,000 homes and businesses across the middle Atlantic and New England. Several regions including coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Hatteras Island, North Carolina have declared local states of emergency.

Ocean over wash across Highway 12 on Hatteras Island in North Carolina. Pounding surf over several days eroded the dune line an washed over the coastal highway. (NCDOT)

Successive high tides over the weekend, combined with pounding surf and winds over tropical storm strength, inundated coastal homes and roads. Highway 12 on the Outer Banks of North Carolina was washed out resulting in thousands of tourists being stranded. Emergency ferry service has been established, but the process is slow.

Here in the St. Lawrence Valley, we are seeing waves of light precipitation Monday morning, pinwheeling around strong low pressure located along the New Jersey coast. Monday will be a showery, chilly day in Montreal, with continued northeast winds, gusting up to 50km/h and a high of 16C (60F). Those winds pushed over 60km/h in parts of the region on Sunday, as we remained fully in the broad circulation of the east coast storm.

High pressure will settle into southern Quebec on Tuesday, accompanied by clearing skies. Temperatures will remain above normal in Montreal for most of the upcoming week.

A Nor'Easter before the first Atlantic Hurricane

A spectacular September sky as departing clouds play with the rising sun over Ile Perrot. The lowering angle of the fall sun allows for some beautiful sunrises and sunsets. (Valley Weather Photo)

Monday is the last official day of summer for 2026. I am still in shock the season is coming to an end, and stubbornly wearing shorts while waking my new pup on 6C mornings. I got to be me. While I absolutely enjoy all four seasons, summer is by far my number one. With that being said, fall arrives, like it or not, at 8:04 pm on Tuesday.

With that we are seeing much cooler nights in Montreal as daylight diminishes, along with an increase in morning dew, which will eventually become frost as we cool even more. The good news is that the weather looks spectacular in Montreal, with strong high pressure slowly drifting over southern Quebec for the entire week ahead.

As far as sensible weather is concerned, expect nothing but sunny, seasonable days and clear, crisp and cool nights. There is even a risk of frost across large portions of the upper Ottawa Valley as well as regions well north of Montreal. Frost advisories have been issued for those locations. Daytime highs will range from 16C (60F) up to 20C (68F) by Friday. Morning lows will be on the chilly side, ranging from 2C (36F) off the island of Montreal, increasing to 5C to 7C (40-45F) across metropolitan regions. 

Weekend Nor'Easter

As high pressure continues to suppress any significant weather well to our south this week, strong low pressure is forecast to develop along the Atlantic coast and move north towards southern New England by Friday night. This will be the first Nor'Easter of the young fall season, oddly occurring before the first hurricane in the Atlantic basin. It is a record-setting year, as our strengthening El Nino continues to put a cap on tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. We are still awaiting our first hurricane.

This year will be the latest on record for a hurricane to form, the previous benchmark was Hurricane Gustav on September 11, 2002. So far this year we have had only 6 tropical storms, including the current system, Fay, located 655km southwest of the Azores and weakening.

As far as Montreal is concerned, it appears the weather from next weekends potential storm should remain well south and east of the St. Lawrence Valley. Perhaps a few clouds, sprinkles and a chilly northeast wind on Saturday, but maybe nothing at all. Closer to the system, heavier rain, up to 50mm, strong winds and even some coastal impacts would be possible, but that will depend on the final strength and eventual track of the storm. Stay tuned, it's that time of year again.

Above normal temperatures expected for September

The rain stopped long enough last weekend for thousands of spectators to attend the annual car show in Hawkesbury, Ontario. The weather was perfect with light winds, low humidity, 25C and just a wisp of clouds. The perfect weather resulted in nearly 450 classic cars on display. It was a blessing after a summer where so many outdoor events have been rained out. (Valley Weather Photo)

The weather has been rather mild to start the month of September across southwestern Quebec, with indications that it will remain that way. We are at the start of what is expected to be an historic El Nino event, the warming of the waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Typically this means a very moderate if not warm fall and winter season for Montreal and a large portion of Canada. Looking ahead, we can certainly see signals of milder-than-normal weather well into October for the Montreal region.

Warm high temperatures so far this month have reached the middle 20s. with lows remaining in the middle to upper teens. Warm southwest winds on Thursday have been gusting in excess of 60km/h. The wind managed to keep temperatures up overnight, with a low of 19C (66F) at Trudeau Airport. The normal high and low for early September is 20C (68F) and 10C (50F) respectively. We have not seen that, and shorts and t-shirts remain the clothing of choice.

We have managed some decent rainfall to start the month, with officially 49mm at Trudeau Airport, thanks in part to heavy showers on Wednesday evening that produce close to 30mm in just a few hours. I have recorded 44mm here on Ile Perrot.

High pressure will maintain sunny and mild weather well into the weekend, with the next chance of showers coming late Sunday.

Torrential rain on Labour Day weekend washed away roads, flooded homes and destroyed cars across Cape Breton Island in Nova Scotia. The storm resulted in one fatality and prompted a state of emergency across the region. Over 200mm of rain fell in juts a few hours. (Province of Nova Scotia)

It has been a very expensive summer for Canadians coast to coast, as storms and fires have resulted in billions of dollars in insured losses. The most recent storms in Toronto and Cape Breton, Nova Scotia have only added to the totals. In the Windsor storm, two tornadoes moving southeast for Michigan resulted in significant widespread damage to trees, cars, homes and businesses. The September 2 storm resulted in at least 1000 calls to public works for tree removal, 600 of those deemed urgent. Many fell onto homes and cars. The Toronto storm on September 1st, severely damaged Rogers Stadium, resulting in the cancelation of the AC/DC concert that was scheduled for September 16.

Last weekend, a torrential rainstorm dumped over 200mm (8 inches) on Sydney and parts of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia. Torrents of water washed away roads, damaged homes and resulted in one fatality. The damage from this storm alone will run into the hundreds of millions. With an El Nino fueled fall and winter season forecast, we can expect more of the same, with unusual weather patterns creating the potential for dangerous, damaging storms. 

Labour Day, the unofficial end to summer in Montreal

A tranquil weather moment from the heavens as the clouds part at sunrise this week in Montreal. It has been a challenging summer as far as the weather is concerned from coast to coast, with searing heat for some, drought, fires and floods for others. The increasing strength of the current El Nino is sure to make this fall and winter forecast just as challenging to say the least. (Valley Weather)

Labour Day weekend is upon us, typically the unofficial end to summer. This was more of a reality in my youth, as the weather typically turned cooler much quicker and school rarely started until after the last long weekend of the summer. Things has changed considerably these days as most schools are already back in session, and summer warmth tends to drift well into September and in some cases even early October. 

The weather this weekend looks ideal for outdoor activities. Scattered showers are possible Saturday as a stubborn upper level low remains to our northeast, but the day should not be a washout. Sunday and Monday will feature nothing but sunshine, with daytime highs rising into the middle 20s and overnight lows in the low teens. 

You can definitely feel summer slipping way as the longer nights tend to produce a heavier dew in the mornings, as well as fog in places. Overnight low temperatures can easily find their way into the low teens. The trees are also beginning to respond to the shorted amounts of daylight, which typically begins the leaf changing process, despite how warm it is.

It was Toronto's turn this week to join Montreal and Ottawa in the summer of the flood. A powerful thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon resulted in close to 140mm of rain falling in less than one hour, flooding residents, highways and underpasses across parts of the city. (Toronto Tourism) 

Toronto's 100 Year Storm

It has been the summer of fire and flood across Canada. You can now add the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to the growing list of communities impacted by significant flash flooding events. Powerful thunderstorms on moved southeast off Lake Huron Wednesday afternoon, racing across the Toronto and Niagara regions and into western New York.

The storms produced widespread wind, hail and flooding, resulting in significant damage  as well as power outages to more than 150,000 homes and businesses. Wind gusts were observed up to 91km/h at Brantford and 83km/h at Pearson Airport. Major damage was reported at Rogers Stadium. Hail as large as 2.5 to 6.5cm punched out windows in homes and cars in North York. Several motorists had to be rescued after 139mm of rain fell in Caledon, with 133mm at Vaughan. A tornado was reported near Bamberg, northwest of Kitchener.

Severe thunderstorms on Thursday resulted in significant damage across this east Windsor, Ontario neighbourhood. (Photo: @onlocation.tv)

On Thursday another round of strong thunderstorms moved across southeast Michigan into the Essex/Windsor area. The powerful storms and possible tornado tore the roof off at least one home spreading debris across the east Windsor neighbourhood. Large, mature trees were uprooted, many landing on homes and cars or blocking streets. Once again large hail and torrential rain fell as well. The Northern Tornadoes Project out of Western University in London will be investigating the storm dame Friday. They suspect based on radar and reports from neighbouring Detroit, that two tornadoes may have impacted the area between Windsor and Amherstburg.

Welcome to meteorological fall

A developing thunderstorm over the St. Lawrence River off Ile Perrot on Thursday, August 27. Summer 2026 will be remembered across Canada for wildfires, flash floods and tornadoes. In Montreal, our weather seemed constantly unsettled, as if Mother Nature was irritated. (Valley Weather Photo)

Back to school, sunsets before 7pm, my snow clearing contract arrives as well as my tire change reminder for October. It must be September in Montreal!

September 1st marks the start of meteorological fall, statistically summer is behind us. The nights grow longer quickly, we see more dew and fog, and already, there is a hint of colour in the trees that will only increase over the coming days. 

The summer months in Montreal flew by at lightning speed as they often do. It was an odd summer to say the least, warm and humid, but nothing earth shattering as far as extreme heat is concerned. Officially the airport managed only seven 30C days, and only one heatwave during the first week of July. It was a wet summer, with the rain falling in bunches, including the June 20 storm that dumped 50 to 200mm on the parts of the city, mainly the West Island and South Shore. 

The flash flooding from the July across parts of the West Island of Montreal will probably end up being the weather story of the year. 

In terms of temperatures, the summer will end warmer than normal, but not record shattering. The average temperature at Trudeau Airport was 20.5C for June (normal 19.0C), 22.9C for July (normal 21.7C), and 21.1C for August (normal 21.1C).

As mentioned it was a wet summer, with precipitation falling on 10 of the 13 summer weekends since June 1st.

What can expect in September and beyond? An El Nino (the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) is well underway, and expected to become a super El Nino. We have already witnessed the results of this across North America, with an active fire season, along with surpassed heat here in the east. The Atlantic hurricane season has also much quiter than normal to date.

The fall is expected to be warmer-than-normal in Montreal, along with less precipitation. Winter will be challenging. Historically El Nino winters produce warmer temperatures along with less snow, but moisture latent southern systems tend to still produce heavy precipitation to the St. Lawrence Valley. This often results in freezing rain or mixed precipitation for Montreal. The great Ice Storm of 1998 occurred during an El Nino winter. Time will tell

More rain and clouds may cover lunar eclipse in Montreal

A severe warned thunderstorm slides across the West Island on Monday afternoon. (Valley Weather Photo)

It has been a wet August across southern Quebec. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have occurred on 14 of the 25 days to date, with more forecast both Thursday and Friday. As a result, 122.7mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport, again with more in some surrounding communities. Clouds have also resulted in cooler temperatures, with no 30 degree days recorded at Trudeau Airport, and only 4 days above 29C (85F).

Wednesday will be sunny and dry, with warm high temperatures in then upper 20s. Low pressure will travel well north of Montreal, dragging a frontal boundary across the region on Thursday. Clouds along with isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, some may be on the strong side.

The moon will turn reddish-orange as the earth passes between it and the sun late Thursday night into the wee hours Friday morning. The partial lunar eclipse will be visible in Montreal, if the weather clears. (NASA)

The clouds Thursday night will likely interfere with the partial lunar eclipse here in Montreal. The full Sturgeon moon will be 96.2 percent covered by the Earth's shadow, as it passes between the sun and moon. The eclipse will begin in Montreal at 9:23 pm Thursday night reaching a peak in the early morning hours Friday at 12:12 am. The eclipse will end at 3:01 am.

Over the weekend low pressure passing to the south of Montreal produced rounds of showers and strong thunderstorms. Around 4pm Sunday afternoon, one of the strongest storms this summer moved across Ile Perrot. The storm produced torrential rain, over 25mm, in less than an hour, thousands of lighting strikes and wind gusts over 70km/h. Some flooding did occur once again on the West island, along with widespread power outages from Dorval to Pointe-Claire.

New severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings for Canada

Lightning strikes from a severe warned thunderstorm in eastern Ontario. (Valley Weather Photo)

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) along with the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) has finally introduced the new polygon warning system across Canada as of this past Monday. The long awaited update follows a similar system that has been used across the United States for over 20 years.

In the past when a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning was issued, it would cover an entire geographically designated watch region, usually related to a County, Regional Municipality or city, as in the case of the Island of Montreal. Very often when a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Montreal, only a small portion of the city would be impacted, leaving the rest of the population with fair skies. This created significant trust issue with the system.

As someone who has followed the weather for 50 years, this would often leave residents confused, and quickly loosing confidence in the weather office. The real threat here would be that the next time, the warnings could be ignored at terrible cost. As our climate changes across Canada, this type of approach to warnings was badly needed.

A sample of the new polygon thunderstorm warning. Forecasters will be able to precisely target those communities, regions or parts of cities that will be directly impacted by the advancing thunderstorm or tornado. Those warnings will then be pushed out by Alert Ready and the WeatherCan app for only those residents who are in the path of thee storm. (ECCC)

With the new polygon system, forecasters will target areas impacted directly by the approaching storms. The polygons will change quickly as the storms and the threats move along. Thunderstorms and tornadoes are often small in scale and impact very precise regions or neighbourhoods. The hope is that this will regain the public trust in the warning system with fewer "false alarms" being sent out over our cell phones through Alert Ready and on the WeatherCan App. This will also allow forecasters to update and advance the warnings more quickly to those who are in immediate danger from the moving thunderstorm or tornado.

The polygon system will only be used for thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Other weather warnings, and watches will continue to use the current traditional county and municipal alert boundaries.

The Polygon Warning System works!

So on the afternoon of Wednesday, August 12, when severe thunderstorms were impacting primarily extreme eastern Ontario into far western Quebec, Ile Perrot and Vaudreuil-Dorion, those areas were the only regions that received the thunderstorm warnings. The system worked! The storm dumped 25mm (1 inch) of rain at my weather station on Ile Perrot in under 1 hour, while only 1.4mm fell at Trudeau Airport in Dorval during the same period.

Partial solar eclipse visible in Montreal on Wednesday

Skies will be partly cloudy in Montreal on Wednesday for the partial solar eclipse set to start at 12:50PM. The eclipse will only cover 18 percent of the sun in Montreal. (NASA)

If the sun looks a little different through the midday hours in Montreal on Wednesday, that is because it will undergoing a partial solar eclipse. A solar eclipse occurs when the moon moves directly between the earth and the sun. In this case Montreal will be on the western edge of the celestial event, unlike the spectacular total eclipse that occurred over southern Quebec on April 8, 2024.

Nonetheless, they are always exciting moments for weather and space geeks alike. The eclipse in Montreal will begin at 12:50PM, reaching a peak at 1:45PM and ending at 2:38PM. Only 18 percent of the sun will be covered in Montreal, so unless you have a good pair of eclipse glasses, the show will likely go unnoticed by most.

The weather should be ok around that time, however we do have the pesky risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, as we have had each day this week. Temperatures will be a warm, muggy 27C (81F).

The partial eclipse will be visible through most of eastern Canada and New England. The best location to  view the eclipse in Canada will be across eastern Newfoundland, with St. John's expecting 53 percent coverage.

For totality take to the NASA website, or grab a quick (expensive) plane ticket to Russia, Greenland, Iceland, Portugal or Spain. Those regions will have quite a show later Wednesday as they approach sunset. Madrid is expecting 99 percent coverage, or near totality for the first time since 1999. For Iceland, it will be the first total solar eclipse since 1954.

As with any event involving the sun, you will need special glasses to observe. Unfortunately, I can't find mine from 2024. Damage to your eyes can occur in seconds when you stare directly into the sun. Your best bet, pull up a chair to your computer and stream away safely. Enjoy!

The Canadian summer of fire and flood

Just another torrential rain event this past Monday in Montreal. This summer is quickly becoming known for fires and floods from coast to coast. Since June 1st, Trudeau Airport has recorded 284mm of rain, nearly a foot of rainfall. Parts of the region are well over that, with some locations in southern Ontario and Quebec picking up several hundred millimetres during single thunderstorm events. (Valley Weather Photo)

Mother Nature seems angry this year. If it is not burning, it is underwater, that has been the theme for many locations across this great country of ours in 2026. Those who have not suffered from either, have endured smoky skies or searing heat. As I write this post, a Bermuda high is streaming hot and humid air northward into parts of Quebec and particularly across Atlantic Canada. Montreal is currently 30C (86F), with humidex values in the high 30s.

Meanwhile parts of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, typically cooled by the north Atlantic waters, are the warmest locations in Canada, with heat warnings in place and high temperatures in the middle 30s. Humidex values are over 40C for many. Numerous record highs have been established.

Millions of hectares of land have been scorched this year across Canada forcing many communities to evacuate, with damages and the cost to fight the fires soaring. (TWN)

FIRE: According to Natural Resources Canada, over 3.8 million hectares have burned across Canada so far this year, with a total of 4529 fires to date. Many of those fires have torched homes and businesses and filled skies with dense smoke, resulting in poor air quality at times both here and south of the border. A large portion of those fires were started by humans, with most of the remainder by lightning strikes. No part of the country has been spared, but interior British Columbia as well as northwestern Ontario and adjacent Manitoba have been the hardest hit regions.

Intense wildfires burning across the Pacific Northwest portion of the United States have only added to the poor air quality in both countries.

Lake Street in the Montreal West Island suburb of Dollard-des-Ormeaux during severe flash flooding in June. (The Suburban Photo)

FLOOD: When it has not been fire creating havoc, it has been significant flash flooding. Strong high pressure located over the central United States has dominated the weather this summer. Meanwhile disturbances in the atmosphere have been riding over the top of the ridge, producing rounds of moisture rich thunderstorms over parts of Canada. These slow moving storms have dumped torrential rain on many locations.

The list is long, starting with Montreal back on June 20, when parts of the West Island and South Shore recorded as much as 200mm of rain in just a few hours. It has been followed by major flash flooding in Ottawa, Edmonton, Niagara Falls and St. Catherine's, as well as parts of the Laurentians just this past week, where 70 to 120mm of rain fell. In Edmonton, they are experiencing their wettest summer on record, with over 350mm since June 1st and counting. St. Catharines, Ontario has had two "100 year floods" over a four day period. The floods have caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damages to homes and infrastructure.

As we begin August, the weather remains prime for additional wildfires and flooding, with rain falling where we don't need it and none where we do. In Montreal, we can expect a hot and humid start to August, but an expected pattern change during the second week of the month, may introduce a wetter, cooler period of weather for southern Quebec.

Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms for southern Quebec

The first round of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon produced nearly 25mm of rain in Montreal. More showers and storms are possible over the next 24 hours, with as much as 100mm falling locally. (Valley Weather)

Severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec.

Heavy rainfall warning for the Ottawa Valley.

A muggy, warm airmass will be the focus for rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, overnight into Monday. As much as 100mm of rain is possible in the most persistent storms.

My vacation time has come to an end after a spectacular week along the Acadian Coast in New Brunswick. What a hidden gem, beautiful, warm salt water beaches, excellent seafood and smiling faces. We will be back. I was blessed with ideal weather, not a drop of rain the entire time until we started home.

July was wet in southern Quebec, with 98.9mm, nearly 4 inches of rain falling at Trudeau Airport. Summer 2026 is quickly turning into the fire versus flood year. We have experienced significant wildfires across Ontario, and they are now sweeping across parts of British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. Smoke is spreading east across the Prairies and into northwest Ontario.

Last week, major flash flooding occurred across portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, into Ontario and New York. I measured nearly 45mm of rain at my home on Tuesday, July 28, but thankfully, no flooding was reported in our region this time.

Tuesday, July 28 along the Acadian Coast overlooking the warm, salt waters of the Northumberland Strait. If you have not toured the Acadian Coast of New Brunswick, you are in for a treat. What a hidden gem, it was great to spend our vacation in Atlantic Canada, supporting Canadian businesses. (Valley Weather)

As I write, yet another significant, moisture-latent low pressure system is moving from Indiana into southern Ontario and down the St. Lawrence Valley. Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the Montreal region Sunday afternoon, with close to 25mm of rain falling with the first round. More heavy rain is possible this evening and overnight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday. Total rainfall amounts of 50 to 100mm (2-4 inches) of rain is possible across eastern Ontario and portions of western Quebec. Gusty winds are also possible with the storms, but the main threat will be flooding, especially where storms train or move over the same region.

Conditions should improve on Tuesday, but the weather will remain warm and muggy.

Tornado count up across Canada in 2026

Trees are snapped in half after a tornado near Harrington, Quebec and Tuesday, July 21. The Northern Tornadoes Project continues to investigate the damage and storm track. (Photo Xtreme Chase Quebec)

Investigators with the The Northern Tornadoes Project out of Western University have confirmed that Tuesday's storm near the Laurentian community of Harrington was a tornado. The EF1 storm stripped trees, damaged cars and homes and snapped power poles in half. The storm track was estimated at 10km long and at times up to 1km wide. The tornado was capable of winds up to 175km/h. Many roads in the community were blocked with debris. Thankfully there were no injuries.

If it was a tornado, it would be the 4th in Quebec to date in 2026. Quebec has been lucky. Across Canada, tornadoes are on the increase, with 83 so far this year, compared to the long-term average of 65. Leading the way is Saskatchewan with 34, or 233 percent of normal, followed by Alberta at 27. Ontario with 8 and Quebec's 3 trail far behind. The United States is still has the dubious honour of leading the away when it comes to tornadoes, with 1017 to date in 2026.

Significant damage was reported around Harrington after Tuesday afternoons storms went through. (CBC)

Very hot and at times humid weather pushing north around the heat dome over the midwestern United States along with frequent cold fronts sliding southeast from northern Canada, have been responsible for the active season. There is no end in sight to this pattern. If anything, it may intensify, with hot air expected to surge into the southern Prairies this week as the heat dome expands north once again.

Montreal has managed to avoid wind damage with most of the storms, however there has been significant flash flooding at times, as well as tens of thousands of lighting strikes this summer, that has helped fuel and active fire season in Ontario and Quebec. Whether or not you believe in climate change, our planet seems rather stressed these days.

Thankfully, the weather seems calm for Montreal this weekend. We can expect a near-perfect summer weekend, with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the upper 20s (81 to 85F). Overnight lows will be comfortable, ranging from 17C to 19C (63 to 66F). The warm air will persist into next week, becoming more humid at times, with an increase in showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.

If you are enjoying summer vacation, be safe and have fun.

Seasonable weather week ahead - wildfire smoke remains west of Montreal

The annual Notre-Dame-de-L'Ile Perrot car show took place this past Sunday at Pointe-du-Moulin. The show was well-attended, with spectacular near-perfect summer weather prevailing. This was in stark contrast to the washout on Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms all day in Montreal. Rainfall amounts however were lighter than forecast, with only 5-10mm in the Montreal region.(Valley Weather)

The fire situation across western Quebec and northern Ontario remains critical, with hundreds of fires burning. In Quebec, there are 180 active fires according to SOPFEU. Firefighters are already assisting in Quebec from New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Alberta and British Columbia. An additional 18 firefighters will arrive from the Untied States, with 43 from France.

With the wind this week predominately from the north and west, smoke should drift across the central Great Lakes and into the upper Midwest. Smoke from Alaskan wildfires is drifting across northern Canada adding to the poor air quality across the west. Montreal will remain on the eastern edge of the smoke fro now.

The weather will turn cooler with some rain across the fire region as low pressure moves well north of our region across Ontario and Quebec. Here in the southern part of the province, we can expect a seasonable week, with highs in the middle 20s and lows in the teens.

Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible in Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The threat for severe weather is low this week. Otherwise expect sunshine through Saturday.

The hot and humid weather will remain in place across the central portion of the United States this week giving southwestern Quebec and southern Ontario a break. 

Along the Gulf coast, a weak tropical storm is expected this week. Early Monday morning, tropical depression 2 was located 180 kilometres south of Panama City, Florida, with 55km/h winds. The storm is forecast to become tropical storm Bertha this week, while slowly moving northwest towards the Louisiana coast. The main threat with this storm will be heavy rain and flooding from the Florida panhandle to Texas.

Wet Saturday for Montreal - smoke moves south

Widespread air quality advisories stretch across central and southern Ontario and most of the northern and eastern United States. Dense smoke from wildfires burning across northwest Ontario and northern Minnesota have resulted in some of the poorest air quality in the world over the last few days. Little relief is in site as winds oscillate the smokey air back and forth across the international border. (NYSDOT)

The big story this week is the widespread forest and wildfires burning across parched regions of northwest Ontario into western and central Quebec. Over 180 fires are burning in Ontario, with an additional 19 active fires in Quebec. The total in Quebec for the season is now at 326, of which 72 were caused by lightning and unfortunately 241 by human activity. The Ontario fires are beginning to threaten communities, with evacuations being considered for residents of at least 15 municipalities. Some rain is forecast for the weekend, but also the risk of lightning which may spark additional fires.

The skyline of Toronto on Wednesday, covered in thick smoke from wildfires burning in northern Ontario. The city is fourth on the list of poorest air quality among major cities worldwide on Friday morning.

The Ontario fires have sent plumes of thick smoke southeast across the Great Lakes and into major cities like Toronto, Detroit and Chicago. Air quality has been greatly diminished across Ontario as well as the northern and eastern United States. Residents were being urged to remain indoors Friday, as trips to the emergency room for respiratory issues have spiked, especially in Ontario, Michigan and New York.

Here in Montreal, we have been spared the smoke as most has drifted south and west of the city. We may see some smoke return on Sunday as winds veer to the west and northwest behind a strong cold front.

Our weather will be sunny and seasonable on Friday, a near-perfect summer day, with a high temperatures near 25C (77F). Clouds will increase after midnight as a strong area of low pressure moves down the St. Lawrence Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast most of Saturday, with 20-25mm of rain possible. A cold front late in the day Saturday may produce some vigorous thunderstorms, but the severe weather threat for Montreal is low at this time. Daytime highs will be near 25C (77F), with overnight lows behind the rain dropping to a comfortable 15C (59F)

High pressure should build back in Sunday resulting in a very pleasant, sunny day. The high will be near 24C (76F). Wildfire smoke may return to southern Quebec on both Sunday and Monday.