Storm on east coast slow to develop
Surprise nocturnal thunderstorms in North Grenville

The low pressure area southwest of Bermuda this morning has been very slow to develop. Interests along the east coast should continue to be aware of this threat. It is still expected to approach the coast of the Carolina's by Sunday night. In what form is yet to be determined, but expect windy rainy weather from the Outer Banks northward towards Long Island by the end of the weekend.

In local weather- a line of thunderstorms formed unexpectedly overnight. Thunder & lightning and around 5-10mm of rain occurred in Kemptville. We are expecting warm and humid weather today and Friday with highs around 30C (86F).

Possible tropical threat for eastern seaboard

A Hurricane Hunter Recon flight is currently underway along the east coast of Florida about 350 miles out at sea. A an area of low pressure is expected to become TD7 and possibly Tropical Storm Gabrielle within the next 24 hours. The storm is then likely to retrograde back towards the coast as high pressure to the northeast blocks its movement. We could be seeing a tropical system moving along the coast from the Outer Banks northeastward towards New England by the weekend. There is still much uncertainty among computer models with many different scenarios as to the track of this potential storm. I will keep a close eye on the system and update the blog tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Felix at Landfall this morning in Central America.

Bits and Bites and a little complaining


Ah where to begin. First and foremost my battle with Bell continues. I have been waiting over a month for delivery of a modem promised to me in one to two business days from Bell Sympatico Internet Service. That was August 6. So far nothing so I am switching to Cogeco, I will let you know how that goes. So my entries have been limited, I apologize.

We have just witnessed a second Category 5 storm of the 2007 season to hit Central America. This is very far south for these storms, they are record breakers. Hurricane Felix followed Dean's path for awhile, but then moved a little more south into Honduras, Nicaragua and Belize. Winds gusted over 165mph as the storm roared inland with a 15-20 foot wall of water. The rain will be a big problem in the mountainous areas - with up to 20 inches of rain possible. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 hit this area with over 10,000 deaths reported mostly from flooding and mudslides. No deaths at this point.

Frost - you heard right frost is expected in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains tonight with lows around 32-37F expected. It will rebound into the 80 plus temperature range by Wednesday. You have to love fall in the north country. It should remain above freezing with no frost in North Grenville and the Seaway tonight.

What a Labour Day Weekend in The Seaway.

This is St. Lawrence Park in Brockville, Ontario this past Sunday.

Lines of Severe Thunderstorms hit area


Severe Thunderstorms are moving through Eastern Ontario tonight. Warnings and Watches have been posted for all areas. It was a very muggy day in the province with temperatures in the low thirties and very humid. A cold front is slicing into the muggy air with the result being several waves of storms. I was in west end Ottawa tonight experiencing one of the storms. It was fairly tame with the exception of the lightning, which was amazing. Several cells on radar in the upper Ottawa Valley are approaching severe limits - so more weather is on the way tonight.

Dean crossing the coast as a Cat 5 yesterday

Dean weakens to Tropical Storm

The remains of Hurricane Dean will ring itself out over the mountains of central Mexico tonight which as much as 20 inches of rain. The rain will produce life threatening mudslides and flooding in the area. The Storm moved onshore for the final time today near Veracruz, Mexico. Meanwhile the Yucatan is recovering and slowly cleaning up from yesterday's brush with the Category 5 storm. Remarkably no deaths were reported so far in Mexico. Jamaica's south coast is cleaning up also with total destruction is some cases. 13 deaths occurred there and also in the Lesser Antilles.

The storm behaved well and was exceptionally forecast by the National Hurricane Center. That, and a quick response by authorities along the track of Dean, prevented a far greater catastrophe. It also helped that the storm skirted islands and made landfall in an area of the Yucatan with little population. Sadly it still managed to destroy many home in and just north of Chetumel, Mexico.

Dean getting stronger

Hurricane Dean is just shy of Category 5 status at this hour. The storm is located about 330 miles east of Belize City in the western Caribbean Sea heading slightly due north of west. The storm is expected to make landfall overnight tonight on the Yucatan south of Cozumel. The storm is then expected to cross the peninsula and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico before approaching Tampico on the Gulf Coast of Mexico Wednesday- possibly as a Category three hurricane. What all this means is that massive evacuations were expected along both coastlines as Dean approaches. Thousands of tourists were boarding planes away from the Yucatan yesterday and today.

It appears that the damage was extensive along the south coast of Jamaica but not as bad as feared. Ten deaths have been blamed on the storm so far. Residents in extreme south Texas near Brownsville were being asked to leave the low lying coastal areas prior to landfall in Mexico as a precaution.

Dean spares Jamaica

Serious damage - but it could have been worse

Hurricane Dean wobbled south of Jamaica yesterday producing heavy rain, mudslides and 115mph winds. It could have been far worse. The Cat 4 storm is moving west of the Island nation this morning and is about 415 miles from the Belize coast. The next target will be that country and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The area will be hammered by the storm which we expect will be a Category 5 by then, producing 155mph winds and gusts to 185. The damage could be catastrophic in places. The area has just finished rebuilding from Wilma in 2005.

I apologize for the problems providing updates on this blog. My home computer is out and I am working on it. In the meantime the Hurricane City link on the left has all the latest information and links 0n the storm.

• The remains of Tropical Storm Erin meantime rung itself out over Oklahoma yesterday morning with 9 inches of rain in just a few hoursin and around King Fisher County. The result was severe flash flooding. At least 7 deaths were blamed on the storm. Numerous water rescues were carried out all day, reminiscent of Katrina in 2005. The storm is producing rain across Missouri, Kentucky and Illinois today.

Next update will be around 5pm today....

Dean a Cat 2 storm

pounding Lesser Antilles

Hurricane Dean is pounding Martinique and neighboring islands this morning with fierce winds and rain. Winds have been reported up to 87mph overnight. The storm is producing 5-10 inches of rain and waves and storm surge of up to 10 feet in places. It is expected to move away from the islands later today. Next in the storms path will be Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The storm is riding the southern edge of the Bermuda high that has been baking the US southeast. That is good news for that area but very bad news for south Texas. Projections have the storm heading for coastal Texas by the middle part of next week as a major hurricane.

Dean becomes Hurricane
Severe Thunderstorms in Ontario


Several lines of severe thunderstorms are passing across the St. Lawrence Valley and Eastern Ontario this afternoon. The air is very unstable and a weak cold front is slicing through it. Temperatures rose rapidly behind a warm front this morning up to around 29C.The storms should taper off by the supper hour.Warnings and Watches are in effect for all of eastern Ontario and Upstate New York.

Hurricane Dean continues to strengthen as it heads rapidly westward through the Atlantic and Caribbean. The storm is expected to brush the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands tomorrow before taking aim at the Yucatan, Cozumel and Cancun. The storm is forecast to become a major Category 4 Hurricane by Sunday. All interests in the Gulf and Coastal Mexico should pay close attention to this potentially dangerous storm.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Erin moved inland over south Texas northeast of Corpus Christie this morning with heavy rain, flooding and isolated tornadoes. Full details can be found at this link: http://www.kristv.com/Global/story.asp?S=6942390

Tropical Storm Erin approaching the Texas Gulf Coast

Dean continues west

Erin forms in Gulf of Mexico

The tropics continue active today as Tropical Storms Dean and Erin have developed. Dean is expected to continue west while intensifying and could become the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2007 season. The storm is expected to approach the Dominican Republic and Haiti by weeks end, potentially as a major hurricane.

In the meantime Tropical Storm Erin formed only hours ago in the Gulf of Mexico about 250 miles east of Brownsville. Tropical Storm Warnings have been raised for the lower Texas Coast south of Freeport into northern Mexico. The biggest threat from Erin will be torrential tropical rains in excess of 5 inches and up to 8 inches in places. The official update can be found at this link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/151536.shtml

The expected path of Tropical Storm Dean

Hurricane Flossie moving south of the big island of Hawaii today

The Tropics heat up

Hurricane Flossie is skirting the big island of Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean today. Towering waves of up to 25 feet are expected to cause some flooding along the south coast of the island. Also heavy rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides. Winds are expected in the 40-60mph range over extreme southern areas.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic midway between the African coast and the US Virgin Islands, we find Tropical Storm Dean. Forecasters are expecting Dean to continue moving towards the west northwest along the southern edge of the Bermuda high. By Friday the storm should be approaching the far eastern Caribbean Islands as a hurricane. All interest in the US southeast should monitor this storm as it looks to be the first of the season to threaten the area. Keep in mind we are over a week away from this happening if at all.

A car sits under a washed out section of road near Placentia Bay.

Tropical Strom Chantal floods Newfoundland
High heat and humidity in Ontario/ Quebec

Southeast Newfoundland received between 100-150mm of rain in as little as six hours yesterday morning causing serious flooding in the southeast part of the province. Many roads were washed out and homes flooded. Several motorists narrowly escaped death when there cars were washed into culverts. Sections of the Trans Canada Highway were washed out near Placentia Bay. Roads in St. John's were flooded as well. Tropical Storm Chantal, the third of the season, brushed the southeast part of the province late Tuesday night. The storm formed over the the open Atlantic east of North Carolina and raced northeast.

• High heat and humidity warnings continue in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto today. Heat emergencies have been declared and cooling shelters opened. Record highs can be expected today with the mercury soaring into the mid 30's over many areas. Humidex values will push over 40C. Drink plenty of water and limit outdoor activities, unless it is a beer by the water!

Tropical Depression Three
off East Coast

• Blazing Heat continues - spreads east

• A friend turns 200,000

• Just a few quick notes this wonderful July morning. The month is almost over. What started as a rainy and unseasonably cool month will end very hot for most of the country. This will be Ontario's hottest week of the year to date. High temperatures will be over 30C right into the weekend. Temps in the west have been close to 40C in Saskatchewan once again. A humidex reading of 53C was recorded in that province on the weekend, the warmest ever!

• This weekend the NASCAR Busch cars are in Montreal. I will be there, needless to say. The weather sunny and warm, awesome, thank you weather gods!

• The third tropical depression of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season has formed about 310 miles southeast of Massachusetts. As you can see on the map above the storm is expected to become Tropical Storm Chantal. it is forecast to skirt the Avalon off Newfoundland with gusty winds and heavy rain. The tropics are heating up, with forecasters watching several other waves developing. I imagine our quiet season to date is about to come to an end. Please stay away from the Outer Banks!

• An important friend of mine turned 200,000, kilometres that is, at exit 619 on the 401 on Thursday. My Saturn SL1, while not the 69 Charger I have always dreamed of, has taken me everywhere. It has not only taken me to and from the ones I love but has also proved a valuable friend in storm chasing, and it has the hail dents to prove it. Thank you Little Limo! My beautiful daughter below with the car in the background (red) in line for the Glenora fery, on our latest adventure to Sandbanks!

Close to 90mm of rain fell in Kemptville

Blazing Heat in Saskatchewan

Heavy Rain in Ontario

The rain of last week created havoc and flooding across parts of Eastern Ontario. Radar estimates and observations showed that as much as 150mm of rain fell in less than 24 hours, smashing records in places. Kemptville had over 90mm. Flooding was reported in area businesses. In the Renfrew area many fields were underwater with bales of hay floating away. Part of the embankment under the tracks on the Wakefield Steam Train line north of Ottawa were washed away.

In Saskatchewan it is the lack of rain and the blazing heat. A record and dangerous heatwave is underway in that province as well as Manitoba, the Dakotas and Montana. Temperatures soared to 38C in Val Marie, Saskatchewan yesterday and again today. Some place will reach 40C tomorrow. Only slight relief is on tap the middle part of the week with a stray shower or two, then back into the mid thirties to end the week.

Merrickville-Wolford - Kemptville
1:39 PM EDT Friday 20 July 2007
Rainfall warning for Merrickville-Wolford - Kemptville continued. Heavy downpours expected to continue this afternoon. An upper disturbance affecting eastern Ontario this afternoon will continue to produce heavy rain. Several localities have already reported amounts of 50 to 100 millimetres. Over 75mm in Kemptville. Additional local rain amounts up to 50 millimetres are possible. Visibility may be occasionally reduced in heavy downpours. Rain will taper to scattered showers in the next couple of hours for the City of Ottawa but linger until early this evening along the Seaway Valley.

Flooding on Prescott Street in Kemptville

Flooding Rains continue in Ontario

70mm since last night

Torrential rains continue to fall in Eastern Ontario at noon. The heavy rains are beginning to cause flooding in basements and businesses in the Kemptville area. Over 7cm (70mm or 3 inches!) of rain has fallen, most of that since 4am. The rain is filling ditches, and rivers are beginning to rise.

Pumps have been brought in the help the businesses on Prescott Street in Kemptville.

The system responsible is spinning in place over the 416 corridor and is continuing to dump heavy rain. Warnings remain in effect.

Totals to 10am:

LOCATION

TORONTO (DOWNTOWN) 62mm

TORONTO (DOWNSVIEW) 40

TORONTO (BURNHAMTHORPE) 48

APPLETON (SW OF OTTAWA) 63

BALACLAVA (NEAR RENFREW) 93

BARRIE 44

COBOURG 47

COLDWATER 100

COLLINGWOOD 49

DRUMMOND CENTRE 40 (N OF PERTH)

KEMPTVILLE 58 to 10am 12 more mm since

MUSKOKA 61

ORILLIA 106

OTTAWA 43 (AS OF 10 AM)

PETERBOROUGH 23

PETAWAWA 102

TRENTON 20

Over 60mm of rain has fallen in Kemptville in the past 24 hours

Heavy Rain and Flooding
If you built an arc, kudos to you. It has been raining heavily since about 4am in Kemptville. We have had 60mm in the past 24 hours most of that, about 40mm falling since 4am. The water is ponding on roadways and poor drainage areas and causing slick travel.


Heavy Rain Warnings are in effect for all of southeastern Ontario. The culprit is a slow moving upper low spinning over our area. There have even been embedded thunderstorms adding to the totals. The rain is falling in upstate New York as well where Flood Advisories have been posted for St. Lawrence County. The rain should taper off by noon, leaving an excellent weekend behind it.

More sun than rain east
Blazing heat west

The sun is shinning a little more these days in Ontario and Quebec, despite this however it remains cooler than normal. The normal high in Montreal and Ottawa should be 27C. So far this summer more than 75 per cent of the days have had some form of rainfall, be it showers or thunderstorms. There have been numerous reports of hail and severe weather as well, and just generally unsettled. Last night (Sunday, July 15) thunderstorms raced across the St. Lawrence Valley and into the Valleyfield area around 9pm, with spectacular lightning, hail and heavy rain.

This pattern will continue again this week in Ontario, at least till Friday. Temperatures will be in the mid-twenties, with the threat of showers each day.

The west is a much different story. A large ridge of high pressure building in from the desert southwest will push very hot air into parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Temperatures are expected to soar into the 30's and approach 40C by the weekend over Saskatchewan and Montana. Keep cool! Along the boundary of warm air, thunderstorms produced golf ball and baseball size hail in Alberta today.

The east will warm up into next week I believe. That is little comfort for those who have tried to camp, or swim on the five weekends so far this summer. Each one has sported below normal temperatures and rain. So far, next weekend looks good...keep your fingers and toes crossed!

Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County
12:34 PM EDT Wednesday 11 July 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County downgraded from tornado warning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is eastward across the above regions. Some of these storms contain damaging winds and large hail. Some of these storms could also produce tornadoes.

Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County
12:22 PM EDT Wednesday 11 July 2007

Tornado warning for Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County
A possible tornado is located between Renfrew and White Lake. This dangerous storm is moving eastward toward the Arnprior area.Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details.Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details.

It will be a dangerous couple of hours in Eastern Ontario. Stay alert, the front should pass by 3pm east of our area.

Tornado Warnings in Ontario

Supercell thunderstorms are developing in the very warm humid air across Ontario, Quebec and New York.

Keep and eye to the sky and check out the weather links on the left hand side.

Here is my weather column from the Iroquois Chieftain for this week...

More wicked severe summer weather developed again across Ontario this week. Two more tornadoes touched down just south of Walkerville. The tornadoes were part of a very impressive supercell thunderstorm that moved off Lake Huron towards Lake Erie. It lasted over 7 hours and produced hail and fierce straight line winds. Damage was limited to some farms with no injuries reported. In our area several thunderstorms popped up in the warm and humid air mass on Monday. The storms developed rapidly and moved south along a line from Winchester to Cardinal and east to Morrisburg. To show you just how fast these storms can surprise you on an otherwise fair day, within 30 minutes the storms had developed and moved south of the river into central New York. By the time warnings were issued the storms had passed out of our area. When the air is extremely unstable with high humidity and heat, thunderstorms are always possible. Learn how to spot them before they affect you and seek shelter, especially if you are on the open water, or the golf course.
The storms are part of the leading edge of very hot, searing heat that has been affecting the US and west. It was close to 40C in southwest Saskatchewan and southern Alberta late last week. Meanwhile triple digit Fahrenheit heat and record wildfires continue to affect the US West. Hundreds of thousands of acres are burning from South Dakota to California. One wildfire in Utah, is a killer, and is consuming at times, an astonishing 10,000 acres an hour.
We will continue to be on the edge of this heat with numerous weather systems bringing us bouts of hot followed by very cool weather and in between thunderstorms. This is typical Summer weather in our latitudes especially when we are on the fringe of the warm high pressure that is heating up the US.
For updates and important links to weather right here in the Seaway, visit my website at http://valleyweather.blogspot.com/

Above: A car is consumed by a landslide in Ottawa.

Below: Torn branches from severe weather near Walkerton

High risk of severe weather today

Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been posted for a wide area of upstate New York, Vermont, Southern Quebec and have been extended into Eastern Ontario. This morning a series of storms swept across the area with hail, high winds and heavy rain. These storms came on the heals of yesterday's storms that produced heavy rain and tornadoes in southwest Ontario. The heavy rain in the Ottawa area, over 20mm, contributed to a landslide that swept a car down a 25 metre embankment. No one was injured but 21 people were evacuated from nearby homes.

Environment Canada has confirmed that 2 tornadoes touched down in the farm country west of Walkerton, Ontario yesterday. Thousands are without power. The air remains sultry in the province with very high humidity and temperatures approaching 30C in many areas. The heat is spreading north from the US where a two week triple digit heatwave countinues, and is spreading to the east.

The risk is high for severe weather in our area today, stay alert.

Humidex readings will approach 40C.

Record Heat

It was a steamy day across Ontario yesterday with numerous record highs recorded including the 34C in Ottawa and 35C in Kemptville. It remains hot today with heat and humidity advisories posted for all our areas. Air Quality Advisories are also posted in New York State. At noon today it is 32C in Ottawa with the highest humidex in country at 44C!

The end to the heat is upon us as a cold front cuts into our area. Our focus now shifts to severe weather with the potential for heavy thunderstorms across the entire southern half of Ontario and into the Seaway and Quebec this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be abundant rainfall in the humid air mass, over 50mm is possible. High winds and dangerous lightning are also a risk

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on10

Humidex Values near 40C Tuesday

High heat and humidity warnings are in effect for most of Ontario and southwest Quebec for Tuesday and Wednesday. A very muggy air mass from the US will invade the area. Temperatures will soar into the mid 30's with Humidex values approaching 40-45C. Drink plenty of fluids and limit outdoor activities. The very young and old are at particular risk as well as those living in large urban areas.

Thunderstorms will cool us off late Wednesday.

An amazing photo from CTV.ca of the Elie tornado

Saskatchewan and Manitoba
hammered by severe weather

Environment Canada has confirmed that the tornado that touched down in the Trans Canada Highway community of Elie, Manitoba west of Winnipeg was an F-4 tornado on the Fujita Scale of 0-5. The very rare storm was intense, capable of producing winds in excess of 250km/h. Damage was severe in the town with many homes destroyed. It was a miracle that no injuries occurred. The storm was part of a series of twisters over 5, and thunderstorms that produced severe damage across both Saskatchewan and Manitoba Friday and Saturday. Golf ball size hail flattened crops while strong winds and lightning knocked down trees and left many communities in the dark.

In Ontario last weeks thunderstorms caused a house to burn down on Wednesday, just west of Kemptville on Donahue Road. Both Kemptville and Merrickville Fire Departments responded to the call. I will post pictures tomorrow.

The system that is producing the sever weather in the west will cause heat and humidity to be on the increase in Ontario and Quebec this week before another cool down by the weekend. Before that expect temperatures in the low 30's this week with thunderstorm activity on the rise.

Damage in Elie, Manitoba

Happy Summer

Summer arrives at 14:06 EDT today and it is the longest day of the year. The sun rose over eastern Ontario at 5:15 this morning and will set at 8:53 tonight. That will give us 15:38 minutes of daylight. Sadly the days begin to shorten from here.

According to www.almanac.com the timing of the summer solstice depends on when the Sun reaches its farthest point north of the equator. This usually occurs annually sometime between June 20 and 22, announcing the beginning of summer. The word solstice is from the Latin solstitium, from sol (sun) and stitium (to stop), reflecting the fact that the Sun appears to stop at this time.

The weather will be partly cloudy today with a good chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon after 2pm. A cold front may trigger some severe weather as well this afternoon in eastern Ontario and Upstate New York with some small hail and gusty winds. The weekend looks sunny and seasonable on Saturday and unsettled with more thunderstorms and humid Sunday. Highs will be in the 22-26C range (72-78F) for the next 4 days.

The Thousand Islands Bridge at Hill Island in yesterday's warm front showers.

Severe Weather possible today in Ontario

Keep a weather eye on the sky today in Ottawa, Montreal and along the Seaway. There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorm activity as a strong cold front moves into very muggy air. This morning the temperature in Kemptville rose from 12C (54F) at 6am to 22C (72F) at 8am. You could smell the warm air flooding in on southeast winds. It will reach 31C today before the cold front moves in. The front has a history of severe weather across the Great Lakes and Midwest US. Environment Canada has already posted a Watch for our area at the following link:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on41

And from the National Weather Service Office in Vermont

The best threat will be between 3-7pm in our area. Strong winds, heavy rain and even hail are possible.

My 200th Weather post...

A series of thunderstorms swept north from upstate New York on Saturday, June 2. They created widespread damage. Above are some of the pictures taken from Iroquois, Ontario. Below is a mature thunderstorm over the St. Lawrence River Valley.

Photos Joe Morin

Tropical Strom Barry produced heavy rain up the entire East Coast. TheNASCAR race in Dover was rained out this weekend....

Severe storms this afternoon...

The unstable air mass, a stationary front and the remains of Tropical Storm Barry that have been affecting our weather for the last week will all be swept east today by a potent cold front. The air is very unstable and an afternoon of severe thunderstorms is on tap for eastern Ontario and west Quebec.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/warnings_e.html

The site above has all the latest warnings. I will have an update on the weekend activity as well later today. Be safe.

Stationary front sparks storms

A stationary front lying along the Ottawa River has been the focus for some big thunderstorms over the last two days. To the south of the front conditions are in the 20's with muggy air. The front is generating these storms which then slide southeast across the river and into Ontario. The result has been heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Some of the storms were affected by the southwest winds blowing south of the front and developed rotation north of Kingston this afternoon. A Tornado Warning was issued but none were reported as of this time.

The front will continue to provide energy and with daytime heating we can expect more storms tomorrow over eastern Ontario and west Quebec.

At this time a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of Eastern Ontario including Lanark County and Smiths Falls. More storms are moving south of the front and about to leave the Gatineau Hills and move into Ontario. Stay alert and click on this link for updated warnings...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/son_e.html

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
for:Brockville - Leeds and Grenville Friday, May 25 2:50pm
CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

Snow from the train last Monday near Rimouski, Quebec

Record Heat in Ontario

Well a week that started for me in snow on the Gaspe Peninsula is ending with record heat. Many areas of eastern Ontario surpassed record highs yesterday with temperatures from 31C to 33C. This beat records established in 1991. It was hazy and humid as well. Smog Advisories remain in effect across our area and into New York. The air quality will improve tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. We can expect some thunderstorm activity along the front.

Saturday will be pleasant with seasonable temperatures. Sunday will be showery with some thunderstorms.

While we were enjoying the hot weather yesterday, portions of Alberta had snow. Calgary awoke to about 5cm of wet heavy snow as did parts of Saskatchewan. Frost was reported across the area last night and this morning.

Cool and damp May long weekend
on tap in the east

As the first long weekend of the year approaches, sadly so will cool air and rain for the east coast. It will be only slightly milder - with partly sunny skies in Ontario, while the southern Prairies will have the best weather.

This week's strong cold front and low pressure area that swept across Ontario with heavy rain, over 30mm in Kemptville, and severe weather in southern Ontario, including an F-0 Tornado, is well south of our area now. Cold air has poured in behind the storm with temperautres as cold as 5C in Kemptville. Snow even fell in Quebec and parts of New Brunswick. The front will stall off the east coast and spawn a coastal storm that will head north into Maine. The storm will assure cool and damp weather for the east through Monday, sad to say!

Severe Thunderstorms
in Eastern Ontario

The first outbreak of severe weather is occurring in Ontario and Quebec. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of southeastern Ontario including Lanark, Leeds Grenville and SD&G. Within the watch area severe storms have crossed the St. Lawrence River into the Seaway. The storms should begin to dissipate after sunset.

Keep and eye to the sky this afternoon. Hail and high winds are the main threat with these storms.

A mixed bag of weather

First named storm of season in Atlantic

Greetings weather fans...well it has been awhile since my last entry. I have been busy - with of all things, work! Imagine, that getting in the way of weather. Lots has been happening lately. We have taken on more of a spring and summer like pattern and have thankfully left the snow behind. It is 27C in Kemptville today, our first 80F day of the season.

In the US terrible thunderstorms produced tornadoes over the weekend. There are numerous sites with spectacular images - http://www.tornadochaser.com/ and others.

Also severe flooding is occurring across the Midwest including Missouri and Kansas. The flooding in many cases is the worst since the summer of 1993.

If that was not enough brush fires are burning across the parched state of Florida and it remains dry across the northeast and Great Lakes.

This morning, the first tropical type storm of the season, Subtropical Storm Andrea formed off the southeast coast (see above). The season does not start till June 1, this is not good news, similar to the wild Katrina season of 2005. Waters in the area are around 25C so it should not increase in intensity. It is drifting west at about 3mph with 45mph winds. Some rain and thunderstorms are pushing into the Carolina's with gusty winds from Hatteras to Jacksonville.

Spring has Sprung!

Hard to believe - but just a couple of days after the big April snow, we are snow free again. Just a few piles of "snirt" lying around in parking lots. Today's sunny, warm weather, with temperatures over 21C (70F) should put an end to that. So fire up the BBQ's and get the rake out it is going to be a spectacular weekend across our area.

By the way it took almost a week for the effects of that storm to leave us. Some time last evening the winds drifted out of the south putting an end to those cold, damp northeast winds that had been howling in our area since last Sunday. Enjoy the weather...please be safe.

Brockville this morning

Classic comma shape of Nor'Easter

Nor'Easter still pounding area

The powerful Storm centred near Long Island continues to pound our area with 50-80km/h winds and rain. Power is out to over 200,000 homes in Ontario and Quebec. So far 20cm of snow fell in the Ottawa to Brockville area with another 20-30mm of rain. Trees are down as are power lines. Flooding is also a problem as the snow begins to rapidly melt.


The most snow reported to date was Tupper Lake NY with 26 inches! In Ontario, Green Valley north of Cornwall had 25cm but Ottawa was not far behind. It was Kemptville's biggest storm of the winter, in April, go figure.



The rain and wind should taper off in Ontario and Quebec by tomorrow morning.

Flooding in New Jersey

This morning in Kemptville.....

15cm & counting...

Record Nor'Easter Slams area

The much anticipated nor'easter has delivered a hard hit to our area overnight. Heavy Snow began around midnight and has accumulated around 10cm in Kemptville and it continues to snow heavily. Visibility overnight was less than a km at times. The system this morning is near Long Island, NY. A dry slot and slightly milder air has moved into Montreal. At this time the precip is lighter there, but winds are fierce. A gust to 71km/h out of the northeast was reported in the last hour.

The weather is making for difficult travel with hundreds of flights cancelled in the east. Call ahead. Road travel is very difficult in a narrow band from Brockville to the Quebec border and north to Ottawa, with snow covered roads and low visibility. Power outages have been reported in NY State.

Yesterday the storm produced coastal flooding and a record 200mm (8 inches) of rain in Central Park. That was the second highest 24 hour total ever for NYC.

As expected, Environment Canada issued warnings at 0245 AM this morning, when everyone was sleeping, a full 24 hours after their US counterparts, for Heavy Snow in Eastern Ontario. I know it was a difficult forecast, but please! The MTO has been slow to respond with plowing this morning, but with no warnings in place, I imagine they were slow to react to the "rainy forecast" All in all this Nor'Easter behaved just as US forecasters said it would last Thursday. Needless to say travel safe today.

Record Snowstorm
possible for our area

Portions of our area will receive a tremendous amount of Wet SNOW tonight and Monday. Where? Well that is the tough call. It is going depend heavily on where you live and what your local wind and temperatures are when the precipitation falls. This is Accu-Weather's take on the storm, well worth reading....

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&blog=anderson

Looking at all the sources today I think 10-20cm of wet snow will fall in most areas, Montreal especially north of the city, and Ottawa, Cornwall, Kingston, with some areas seeing over 30cm particularly the higher elevations. Wind will be a big factor 60-80km/h in places.

The precipitation will begin today as rain and change over to snow by midnight tonight. The system responsible is off the Carolina Coast today and will move to Southern New England Monday.

Travel will be greatly affected along the entire east coast. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for New York and New England and Heavy Rain Warnings for The Townships with Heavy Snow Warnings for the Laurentians north of Montreal. As usual no warnings are out for Ontario. I imagine those will be issued, typically, after the event begins. No sarcasm there!

Storm produces Tornadoes
across south.....
Snow expected in Kemptville

The big storm predicted to impact Ontario and Quebec spawned severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in North Texas last night killing one person. The storm is forecast to produce more severe weather across the US southeast before moving off the Carolina Coast Sunday. As it moves slowly north along the coast it will intensify rapidly. The storms wide circulation will produce coastal flooding and heavy precipitation.

Inland over interior sections of New England, Ontario and Quebec heavy wet snow will fall.
Here is what I think will happen in Kemptville. The rain snow line will be close for the duration of the storm but I feel it will go to all snow on Sunday night in Montreal and eastern Ontario. Amounts will vary due to topography and local temperatures but I feel 10-20cm of heavy wet snow is not out of the question by Monday morning. The snow will be whipped around by 30-60km/h winds form the northeast. It will be cold and miserable so stay home Sunday if you can and travel to work with great care Monday morning.

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for all of upstate New York and Vermont. These may be extended northward into our areas later today.

Next update around 8pm tonight... The links at the left provide instant updates all day.

AP Photo of the day....Typical Spring 2007 scene in the

Eastern US and Canada.

Nor'Easter Sunday & Monday

could be record breaker

The Nor'Easter forecast to move up the Atlantic Coast late Sunday could be one for the record books. All indications are it will be a big snow maker for interior sections of the Northeast and Quebec and Ontario. Stay tuned. Below is a sat picture of the storm over the southwest US. Prepare for stormy weather Sunday and Monday.

Snow tonight!!

More snow is expected to overspread Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec tonight and Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch is still in effect for the valley area of upstate New York and Vermont. Warnings are in effect for the mountain areas. In Ontario and Quebec the snow should fall north of the 401/20. We can expect it to begin overnight and taper to flurries or showers by noon Thursday. Upwards of 8-13cm of snow may fall. It will be wet and heavy. The snow amounts will vary greatly by area depending on topography and the time of day the snow falls. This is very typical of a spring snowstorm, and it makes it hard to predict amounts. An example is last weeks storm in Montreal, no snow on the West Island and over 15cm on the south shore just 20 minutes to the southeast.

Adjust your speed tomorrow and be prepared for poor weather.

AP Picture of Snow in Cleveland...not baseball. Below: Valley Weather photo - the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway is underway, a ship sails east towards St. Lambert Locks, Quebec.

Another spring snowstorm...

Greetings everyone! It has been a couple of days since my last post, busy with Easter and all. Speaking of Easter it was a cold one with temperatures 8-10 degrees below normal and endless snow shower activity. The snow has measured up to 15cm across portions of Ontario and Quebec and more in New England.

This brings me to today. More snow is coming. A complex storm over the Rockies is spreading snow into Saskatchewan and Alberta. As the storm moves east it will spread steady precipitation into Ontario Wednesday and Quebec Thursday. At present it looks like snow for our area. It could be a significant snow event. It is too early to tell. We will update this storm early Wednesday. Keep it in mind if you have travel plans tomorrow through Friday in the east. A special weather statement is out for Ontario, and Winter Storm Watches have already been posted for the storm battered area of New Hampshire. The 1-2 feet of wet snow in that area last Thursday knocked out power to thousands of homes, the worst since the 98 ice storm.

Winter Storm Watches have just been posted as well for Upstate New York and Northern Vermont.

Next update at 7am Wednesday morning....

Late Season storm affects area

A late season winter storm is moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon with heavy snow and rain and the occasional rumble of thunder. The heavy rain in Kemptville, over 20mm expected, will switch over to a period of snow before ending tonight. Winds will become gusty to 50 km/h and stronger this afternoon. West of our area 15-25cm of snow is forecast north of Lakes Superior and Huron. South and east of our area Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for the Green and White Mountains and also in Southern Quebec and north of Montreal in the Laurentian Mountains where 20cm is expected.

It will be a windy and cold Easter Weekend with flurries and squalls. Travel will be poor in many areas tonight and Thursday and again on the weekend. Check the latest forecast before traveling this weekend.

Storm across southern Saskatchewan

A spring storm is expected to dump 10-15cm of snow across the extreme southwest portions of Saskatchewan tonight into Thursday. Hardest hit will be the Cypress Hills.

While Gravelbourg will be on the edge of the precipitation shield it will be affected by strong winds. Winds are expected to increase to the 50-70km/h range across the southland with gusts to 90km/h. Blizzard conditions may develop across the area closest to the Alberta border.

Winds and precipitation should subside from west to east early Thursday morning. Keep in mind that even where the rain falls, it may end as a period of wet snow Wednesday night, creating slick roads. Travel west into Alberta is not recommended tonight and tomorrow.

Cluster of storms along the 416 corridor into upstate New York...

First Thunderstorms of season

A big cluster of thunderstorms along a warm front is pushing into the North Grenville area this morning. A quick 10-15mm of rain with frequent lightning and thunder will occur east from the 416 towards Montreal till about noon. Lightning has already killed one person in Ontario this season. Remember to take cover when storms approach.

Heavy snow along the 416 at 6pm Saturday... PHOTO J. O'Halloran

Surprise Snow pounds 416 Corridor

A wild snowsquall produced low visibilities in heavy snow from Ogdensburg to Kemptville yesterday afternoon around the supper hour. Rain was forecast, but the squall moved in rapidly surprising most motorists, including me. I rarely get caught off guard. A forecast high of 7C with rain assured me of a safe trip to Watertown, NY. The day started with a brilliant sunrise, but rain began at noon, and then winds switched to the east and the air cooled just enough for one of the heaviest shots of snow in this area all winter. From 5-10cm coated everything and it fell in under two hours. Numerous cars hit the ditches.

A more springlike high of 8C with showers and thunderstorms is expected tomorrow and Tuesday will be even warmer, near 20C in Ontario.

Above: Kemptville this morning...Most of the snow melted by 4pm.

The Canadian Coast Guard ship the Martha L. Black, a light icebreaker based in Quebec City today traveling towards Montreal after going through the locks in Iroquois, Ontario on the St. Lawrence River. First commercial ship traffic to begin this Wednesday.

Photo J. Morin

Happy Spring!!!!!!!

Vernal Equinox, 8:07 P.M. EDT
The word equinox is derived from the Latin words meaning "equal night." The vernal, or spring, equinox is the point at which the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator from south to north, signaling the beginning of nature's renewal in the Northern Hemisphere...Old Farmers Almanac

St Patrick's Day Storm...

Snow is tapering off across the area with another 1-5cm expected in the area. Snow began in Kemptville around 9pm last night with the official measurement at 9cm. I have measured close to 15cm on my property so I am not sure why the big difference. In any event 15-25cm fell in most areas with winds of between 30-70km/h. Above and below are photos from this morning of the "9cm" of fresh snow, you be the judge.

Late Winter storm to slam area

A major storm system developing over the Mid-Atlantic Sates will move towards Boston overnight tonight. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of eastern Ontario excluding Ottawa, southern Quebec including Montreal, upstate New York and all of Vermont. Snow and blowing snow will overspread the area by 8pm and accumulate 15-25cm in most areas with 10-15cm in the Ottawa area. The snow will taper off Saturday afternoon. Already travel is being harshly affected in the northeast and expect more delay and cancellations in air travel. This comes on the heals of numerous flight cancellations from fog on Wednesday, ah March!

The snow will hamper Montreal's St Patrick's Day parade on Sunday, but the parade has seen major snow in the past. The storm is affecting the area very close to the anniversary of the March super storm in 1993.

If you can postpone travel Saturday please do so in southern Quebec and the 401 corridor.

The last of the Ice Fishing on the St. Lawrence River near Long Sault.

Photo: ValleyWeather

Warm temperatures and Flooding

Rapid & record warmth is melting the snow pack in a hurry. Area rivers are on the rise. A Flood Watch has been posted for upstate New York and New England. Adding to the flood potential is a slow moving cold front sagging south that is producing showers and the first thunderstorms of the season over Ontario and New York. 15-20mm of rain with isolated heavier amounts is possible over the next 24 hours. The temperature this morning in Kemptville was a warm 9C we are currently 12C, well above normal. Most of our snow disappeared overnight.

Speaking of snow, much colder air and low pressure developing over the US may provide us with a period of heavy wet snow Friday and Saturday. Forecasters use several computer models to help them prepare the forecast for any given area. All the models are proposing different scenarios at the moment, so there is not much confidence with the forecast. Stay tuned - updates to follow.

Spring has Sprung!

Spring is definitely making its presence known across most of southern Canada. Strong southwest winds in Saskatchewan pushed the mercury to the 20C mark in Maple creek, Gravelbourg and Assiniboia. Most of the snow is gone, and a dry southwest wind of 80-100km/h raced through the area. Peak gust was 102km/h in Maple creek.

The wind and record heat, 98F in Riverside California yesterday, fueled wildfires across southern California with fears of a long dry fire season in the west.

Meanwhile Ontario and Quebec are warming up. The mercury should be close to 10C today in many areas with near 20C in Windsor.

But.....

A strong cold front will bring us back to reality by Friday, with dare I say snow in the air...more on that later.

BIG Warm-up on the way

After the record setting cold of the last two nights a significant warm up is underway. It was -28C Wednesday morning, -26C yesterday and this morning in Kemptville. The transition will be marked by a little Freezing Rain in the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valley's overnight. I have put the Special Weather Statement below. After the freezing rain, it will be mild right through next week with off and on showers. We could reach as high as 10C by mid-week.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ONTARIO REGION. 4:34 AM EST FRIDAY9 MARCH 2007.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR...
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK CITY OF OTTAWA GATINEAU PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL CORNWALL - MORRISBURG HALIBURTON RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY ALGONQUIN.

A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER THESE REGIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT IS EXPECTED THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS HOWEVER THE RISK OF SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS COMPLETE. ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN WARNING FOR THE APPROPRIATE AREAS IF AND WHEN IT BECOMES NECESSARY. LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY ALSO BE FOUND BY CONSULTING THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECAST. http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/city/pages/on-74_metric_e.html

Numerous accidents across region...

There were scores of accidents yesterday as high winds and squalls created white outs across Ontario. The picture above was taken by the Editor of The Iroquois Chieftain, Joe Morin along Highway 2 between Morrisburg and Iroquois. It had to be closed after several cars hit the ditch.

There were serious accidents north of Toronto as well where 75 cars were involved in a pile up on highway 400. Numerous injuries, some serious occurred.

The wind ushered in the coldest air of the season. It was -26C in Kemptville this morning with wind chills approaching -40C

Temperatures to plummet...

An Arctic front is on our doorstep this morning. The front just to the west of Ottawa at 7am will dive south and east across the forecast district today with temperatures dropping to -25 by Tuesday morning, and winds increasing. About 5cm of snow will accompany the front in heavy bursts along with 70km/h winds. The winds will persist into the evening producing cold windchill values and blowing snow. If travelling today be prepared for changeable weather. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the mountains across New York and Vermont. Lake Effect Snow Advisories are posted for the lee of the lakes. Windchill Advisories are also posted for southwest Ontario including the GTA.

The high school in Enterprise, Alabama was destroyed yesterday...

Powerful Storm moves east

What a storm system, it was not bad right here in Kemptville, only about 10cm of ice and snow fell, but it had far reaching effects elsewhere. The storm produced a terrible amount of severe weather across the US south including Alabama. In Enterprise (Above) the twisters struck a school killing 8 students. The toll across the south from storms has exceeded 20. It has been an awful start to the severe weather season in Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi among other states.

In our area 10-20cm of sleet and ice and snow coated roads producing hundreds of accidents, several fatal. The 401 was closed in Kingston and again near Prescott because of serious accidents. The snow has moved east for the most part and is now over Montreal where it will end shortly. Winds were reported in the 30-50km/h range with the storm, however peak gusts of 85km/h were reported in North Bay and Toronto Island. Over 45mm or rain fell in Windsor/Detroit and thunder was reported as well.

Ice was falling off of the CN Tower this afternoon creating a very dangerous situation.

Only snow squalls and flurries will remain for the weekend. Icy patches still exist across Ontario so travel with care.

Highway 44 in North Grenville was icy today....