Rain & snow mix

There is not a whole lot going on in the weather department this morning, it is mild at 0C here on L'Ile Perrot with some fog around. We had a little light rain and snow yesterday, about 2mm worth, hardly worth noting. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find much weather to write about here in Quebec and Ontario, a sentiment noted by other weather bloggers in the region. This winter is setting new records on being mundane, with only 7cm of snow this month and very little in the way of storms all winter long. So today we find ourselves waiting for another weakening area low pressure that will move from Illinois towards southern Quebec. In a normal year this would mean a storm, this year it means, well light rain and snow. The rain will arrive late today and taper to a few flurries on Friday. The only notable thing is that the winds may gust to 50km/h on Friday. Amounts will be light with perhaps 2-5mm of rain followed by a centimetre or two of snow. There may be a few slick spots on area highways both this morning and again overnight tonight. Temperatures will remain mild, above freezing for the next 24 to 36 hours between 2 and 4C. The weekend will feature clearing skies and near normal temperatures. With very little snow pack for outdoor activities and melting outdoor skating rinks, plan a shopping event this weekend or I guess a walk.

A little snow

A weak front moving northeast across the valley this morning is producing a little light and very wet snow. Montreal has seen a dusting to 1cm overnight and it should continue for the next several hours with perhaps another centimetre or so. It is just enough snow to make for a sloppy commute in the city. Otherwise look for cloudy skies and very mild temperatures up to about 3C today and Thursday. On Thursday a slightly stronger low pressure area will lift northeast from the lower Great Lakes and pass west of Montreal. This system has limited moisture but should be able to provide a rain and snow mix for most of the area. Precipitation amounts will be less than 10mm which should amount to less than 5cm of snow. The precipitation will begin in Ontario by midday and spread into the Ottawa Valley by evening. It will reach Montreal late in the day and taper off to a few flurries by Friday morning. While no major travel disruptions are expected, it will be enough snow and rain to make roads slick. Winds will increase as well out of the southwest. Skies will then clear for the weekend, and it will remain rather mild for February.

Warming trend

Happy Valentine's Day

We are seeing a wide range in temperatures this morning across the region. Montreal had clear skies and calm winds overnight, that combined with our snow pack (which many areas don't have) allowed temperatures to cool rapidly after sunset. I am showing minus 17C (2F) here on L'Ile Perrot with -14C (7F) at the airport, well below the predicted low of -5C. Meanwhile just to our south Plattsburgh, NY is at -3C (27F), while to our west Ottawa is -7C (20F). Everybody should warm to at or just above freezing today under mostly cloudy skies. The cloud is being caused by very weak low pressure over the Ohio Valley. We may see some snowflakes this afternoon, but nothing to get too excited about. There is another chance for some rain or snow by late Thursday, but again not a big storm.

Just how little snow has Montreal had this February? We are stuck at 7cm for the month, 5.2 of that falling on the first. Normally Montreal has about 45cm of snow in February with this month and March being our snowiest with the biggest storms. I am just not seeing anything at this time that would indicate a major change in the season long patterns. We may have a little snow by the middle of next week, but for the short term mild air is in place and if we get any precipitation with Thursday's system it will likely be in the form of rain showers.

Quiet February rolls along

It looks like much more of the same in southern Quebec this week as high pressure will dominate the weather until mid-week. We start with a rather weak warm front lifting north of the St. Lawrence Valley this morning, accompanied by a few flurries, perhaps 1cm in elevated locations, if we are lucky. Temperatures were rather cold this weekend, but will rise to well above normal again this week as the arctic air shifts back to the north where it has been trapped most of the winter. Temperatures will be in the -2 to -4C range to start the week but warm to above freezing by Wednesday. Low pressure will head into the Ohio Valley by Thursday and take aim at southern Ontario and Quebec. At this time it looks like rain and maybe freezing rain to start perhaps ending in a period of snow. It is still early for that system, so we will wait and see as the week moves along.

Moncton on Sunday morning (CTV.ca).

The big storm this weekend was a rapidly deepening Atlantic storm that split the Maratimes in two with rain along and east of the track and heavy snow to the west. Snow fell fast and furious in Moncton and Charlottetown on Saturday night with between 25 and 40cm of snow. In Charlottetown, 32cm fell in just 6 hours. The storm also produced strong winds that cut power to wide areas of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI. In Newfoundland it was mostly a heavy rain event with some flooding reported as over 70mm of rain fell. Winds gusted to hurricane force with 107km/h observed at St John's, 124km/h at Burgeo and 148km/h at Wreckhouse. That gust at Wreckhouse damaged the anemometer, so that was the peak gust with the storm, but it might have been higher. Meanwhile in Labrador full blizzard conditions prevailed with heavy snow, gale force winds and windchill values as cold as -48C. It is frigid in Atlantic Canada this morning under clear skies and deep snow pack temperatures are in the minus 20's.

Blustery cold weekend

Cold air poured into southern Quebec overnight in response to an arctic front slipping south of the region and into northern New York. The temperature rose to a mild plus 2C (36F) on Friday before slowly falling to around -1C at midnight. The front passed through the region and the temperature tumbled to -7C (19F) in one hour at Trudeau Airport, accompanied by some brief snow and gusty winds producing a windchill of -18C (0F). It has continued to get colder into this morning with current readings of -13C (9F) at the airport and -11C here on L'Ile Perrot. In southern Ontario, Toronto has declared a cold emergency where the temperature is currently -15C.

The sat image above the left from 11am shows a massive winter storm about to affect Atlantic Canada with heavy snow and rain. It will give strong winds and a few clouds to Montreal, but no snow.

Strong low pressure over Atlantic Canada combined with arctic high pressure over Ontario will produce a tightening pressure gradient over Ontario and Quebec. The result will be increasing northeast winds into Sunday here in Montreal. Temperatures will fall to -19C tonight, combined with strong winds increasing to 30 to 50km/h producing dangerous wind chill values of at least -30C (-20 to -25F). A windchill advisory may be needed for a portion of the area for Sunday. Conditions will be mainly dry for the most part with just the occasional flurrie here in Quebec. The heaviest snow with the Atlantic storm will fall over New Brunswick. Meanwhile Windsor, Ontario has about 12cm of snow overnight, and some lake effect snow will continue today of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Temperatures will moderate on Monday. No big storms on the horizon for Montreal at this time.

Weekend arctic air

We are looking at a mild Friday across eastern Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley as well as much of southern Quebec with current temperatures just below freezing here in Montreal. Temperatures under bright sunshine and a gusty southwest wind will rise to about 3C. A strong arctic front will cross the region beginning late this afternoon in Ontario and this evening in Montreal. Along the front a brief period of snow along with gusty winds are possible with perhaps as much as 5cm locally. The biggest amount of snow will be near the Great Lakes. Once the front passes south of the region very cold northwest winds to 40km/h will drive temperatures down to the minus teens where they will remain until Monday. It won't be frigid, but cold, especially after the recent mild weather.

So where are all the storms? Well Europe is being hammered with snowstorms and fierce cold with snow being measured in feet and not inches. Also Alaska has had one traditional winter with frigid temperatures and hundreds of inches of snow for the season. For now the storm track remains well to our north with very little in the way of activity in the lower 48 and most of Canada. The exception will be portions of Atlantic Canada. This morning some snow is falling in Newfoundland as a coastal storm pulls out to seas. A second storm will develop near Cape Cod and move towards Nova Sctoia. Heavy snow is possible on Saturday across New Brunswick and PEI with as much as 30cm possible. In Nova Scotia it will be a snow rain mix with lesser amounts. Winds will gust over 70km/h at times producing blowing snow in New Brunswick.

Cold weekend on the way

It will be a very mild and pleasant end to the work week today and Friday as high pressure noses into the region from the Ohio Valley. Southwest winds will push the temperature just above the freezing point in Montreal along with abundant sunshine. It will cool only to -5C tonight. Late on Friday a strong cold front will approach southern Ontario and Quebec likely sliding across the St. Lawrence Valley by the early evening hours. The front will be accompanied by gusty winds and some brief heavy snow flurries or squalls. A quick 2-5cm of snow will likely accompany the front followed by a flash freeze up making roads very icy by evening. Along with the snow and wind will be plunging temperatures as the cold air surges into the region. Temperatures will fall into the minus teens by Saturday with a gusty northwest wind. A second front will cross the area late Saturday with a reinforcing shot of Arctic air. Sunday will be sunny, windy and very cold with high temperatures staying in the minus teens and wind chills below -20C. It will warm next week with perhaps some snow by Tuesday.

Above: I thought I would post one more image from the great Northeast Blizzard of 1978. It is a street that many from Montreal and Quebec are familiar with, Ocean Blvd in Hampton Beach during the aftermath of the storm. This link has some great stories HERE.