BIG Snowstorm on tap for Sunday

Deepening low pressure is expected to develop in the US southwest and head for Toronto by late Sunday. Very cold air will remain in place in Ottawa and Montreal and set the stage for steady snow and some freezing rain Sunday into Monday morning. While it is very early in the forecast we can expect at least 10cm of snow and maybe as much as 20cm.

Today an Arctic front will sweep the region ushering in cold air with strong gusty winds and around 5cm of snow. Wind warnings are in place for NY State as well as the shores of Lake Erie and Ontario.

Last night isolated squalls produced only flurries in Kemptville but dumped a band of over 5cm of fluffy snow from Merrickville south. The photo above is plowing in Merrickville this morning.

I will update the storm situation at around 4pm today and again often this weekend so visit us again soon and as always the links along the left side of the page are current.

Weekend Update

I was hoping the weekend forecast would be a simple one. It looked like the storm that was poised to sweep the area was going to be a cold weather event with snow and nothing else. As more computer models are run, warm air is being introduced to the storm. This always complicates the forecast by developing a snow/rain line usually very close to Kemptville and the Seaway.

So...here goes. First today. Windy, in a word. A cold front is moving through the area with gusty winds from 50-70km/h and some snow today. I don't expect more than a cm or 2 at best. Another front will sweep the area late Friday with more flurries and gusty winds. Saturday is fair, the ideal go out and shop day. Sunday will see snow developing and mixing with freezing rain. That is far as I will go today. More updates soon. Plan on poor weather Sunday.

Be kind to each other today!

Fast changing weather pattern

Expect many changes over the next few days in Kemptville and the Ontario/Quebec region. A series of fast moving storms and fronts will provide a range of precipitation from snow to rain and everything in between. Most of today will be dry. Snow will begin late tonight and mix with rain by morning. A few centimetres is expected. Tomorrow we can expect the showers to turn back to flurries late in the day as a cold front moves through the area again. Keep in mind regardless of the precipitation type, roads will be slick. The ground is now in the process of freezing and ices up quickly.

Beyond that a major storm may affect us late in the weekend, Sunday into Monday. I will post updates on this as we move closer to the event.

Yesterday's front dropped about 3cm on Kemptville. Southwest of us in the Toronto area and north along the 400, squalls created white out conditions resulting in two fatal accidents. Winds gusted from 70-100km/h along the front in that area. Remember that at this time of year and indeed all winter, the weather changes quickly around the lakes. Be ready for these rapid changes in road conditions.

Special weather statement issued for regions of southern Saskatchewan by Environment Canada at 8:51 AM CST Tuesday 27 November 2007.

Special weather statement issued for: City of Regina - Fort Qu'Appelle - Indian Head - Lumsden - Pilot Butte - Moosomin - Grenfell - Kipling - Wawota - Carlyle - Oxbow - Carnduff - Bienfait - Stoughton - Estevan - Weyburn - Radville - Milestone - Outlook - Watrous - Hanley - Imperial - Dinsmore - Moose Jaw - Pense - Central Butte - Craik - Assiniboia - Gravelbourg - Coronach - Swift Current - Herbert - Cabri - Kyle - Lucky Lake - Leader - Gull Lake - Shaunavon - Maple Creek - Val Marie - Cypress Hills.

An intense low pressure system will move across southern Saskatchewan today bringing 5 to 10 cm of snow with it. Gusty southeast winds ahead of this system will produce extensive blowing snow causing poor visibilities in open areas. Winds will become strong northwesterly over southwestern portions of the province later this afternoon producing more extensive blowing snow and reduced visibilities.The combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds will produce wind chills near minus 30. Conditions are expected to improve this evening.

Icy road sign near Lacolle, Quebec this weekend as

Thursday's freezing rain begins to melt.

More snow tonight
More winter weather is on our doorstep courtesy of a storm system over the Ohio Valley. Steady rain will change to wet snow after midnight tonight and accumulate 5-10cm across eastern Ontario and Upstate NY. The highest amounts will be over higher terrain. Roads will be icy late tonight. Temperatures will cool on gusty winds tomorrow dropping below freezing with more snow expected.

On the Prairies an arctic outbreak is underway with temperatures in the -20's across Saskatchewan and Alberta with flurries and blowing snow. Travel is poor along the Trans Canada Highway through both provinces.

Storm Totals

Here is list of the storm totals from yesterday's first snow. All in all it was a respectable storm for the first of the season. About 1 inch of precipitation fell in varying forms from heavy rain along the Great Lakes to heavy snow in the Ottawa valley and everything else in between. Winds were gusty in the afternoon and it turned much colder. This weekend will warm up with flurries, before more interesting weather in the middle part of next week. Stay tuned!

Franktown, ON 25cm
Lachute, QC 20cm
Cornwall 20cm
Pembroke 20cm
Morrisburg 18cm
Montreal 17cm
Kemptville 15cm (two day total close to 25cm)
Ottawa 11cm

Above: Kemptville at 7:30 this morning. Snow and sleet continue across the area

and will for the entire day. About 10cm has fallen since yesterday at 8pm.

Over 10cm in Kemptville
Still snowing...

Snow and ice pellets continue across eastern Ontario, west Quebec and upstate New York this morning. About 10cm has fallen in Kemptville with at least another 10cm today. Radar this morning backs this up with more bands of precipitation to our south and west moving into our area. Winds will not be a big factor in Kemptville, but will be along the 401 and in Montreal where they will gust to 50km/h.

The plows have been rolling all night in Kemptville, but roads remain slippery due to the falling precipitation. It will be cold today with temperatures staying below freezing. Care is advised on the roads.

Storm totals will be in the 15-25cm range when all is said and done. All in all an impressive storm for the first one of the season. I will post photos later this morning.

Heavy Snow Warning issued for
Kemptville and Eastern Ontario

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?onrm90

The bulk of the precipitation will begin this evening and become heavy overnight into Thursday morning in our area and spread east into Quebec. Snow and gusty winds causing blowing snow are expected along with dropping temperatures.

FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON

7:35 AM in Kemptville on County Road 24

About 5cm of snow fell overnight in Kemptville

First Snow of season

Plows are out in and around Kemptville as about 5cm of wet snow fell overnight out in advance of the main storm system. The forecast has changed little from last night. It appears the low will slide south of the region by early Thursday. Light precipitation today will increase in coverage and intensity tonight. It is expected to snow through most of Thursday. Accumulations are expected to be 4-8cm along the St. Lawrence River, 5-10cm in Ottawa and Montreal and 15-30cm in the hills north of Montreal across the Laurentians. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for those areas. Travel is already slippery this morning, and expect it to remain so into Friday morning.

First SNOW alert

The first widespread snow event of the season is expected over eastern Ontario and western Quebec Wednesday night into Thursday. Indications now are that rain and freezing rain during the afternoon late tomorrow night will change over to snow into Thursday morning on gusty northwest winds. Temperatures will fall Thursday and it will be windy with snow. It looks like 5-15cm (2-6 inches) can be expected throughout our area. This forecast will need tweaking as the rain snow line will be very close to the 401 corridor. Travel will be difficult late Wednesday through Friday morning. I will update this blog early tomorrow morning with any watches or warnings for the region. Keep in mind it is Thanksgiving in the US and a very busy travel time.

A special weather statement has been issued at: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=on

Sorry but I have to put my faith behind the green for

Sunday's 96th Grey Cup. I was part of the

Green Nation for three years...they deserve it!

Storm on tap for Ontario
It looks like the first major snow event of the season is upon us. It is a difficult forecast with indications of a snow rain mix to start. The first storm will move through the area tomorrow with light rain. It will be chilly with highs no more than 4 or 5C. A cold front will sweep through the area late Wednesday with a second storm forming along that front. As the second batch of precipitation moves into the area on Thursday, it should be cold enough to support snow. The amounts are tricky to determine and will depend on the exact time of the changeover. Count on several centimetres of wet snow Thursday in the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Valleys. Travel will be poor. The wind will be very gusty as well.

I will post another update between 5-6pm tonight.

Snowstorm for Eastern Townships,
Adirondacks and Green Mountains
Prepare for Winter driving....

A fast moving low pressure area and cold front are bringing rain to Eastern Ontario this morning. As the storm reaches the east coast it will intensify tonight. Cold air wrapping around the back edge of the Storm will change rain to snow in all areas tonight. While only flurries are expected in our area, heavy wet snow is expected across higher elevations of New York and Quebec. Up to 30cm of snow may fall by Friday night. In Ontario Lake Effect Snow will occur off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay with over 15cm expected there. If you are travelling in both provinces or New England/New York today expect wet, breezy and changeable weather with dropping temperatures in all area.

Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern Green Mountains and Adirondacks with Snow Advisories across Northern New York. Heavy Snow Warnings are in effect for the Beauce and Townships regions of southern Quebec.

High winds sweep Saskatchewan

Low pressure moving across central Saskatchewan has produced an impressive windstorm in the Prairies. The wind in Swift Current, SK has been blowing between 60-100km/h since mid day yesterday and continues! A peak gust of 104km/h was recorded in the last hour there. 100km/h winds were also reported at Moose Jaw and Lucky Lake. Winds will continue to howl from Alberta to Manitoba tonight as the storm slides east. Wind Warnings have been posted. They should diminish from west to east tomorrow.

SNOW hits east coast
I missed the forecast for our area...oops!

I must admit I am often surprised by how accurate I can be at times. It is actually scary. But boy did I miss the forecast for this past weekend and this week. I was expecting cool, breezy and even snowy weather in Ontario and Quebec. The coastal storm that struck the Maritimes and Gaspe just missed us. It meant sunny and very pleasant weather for Montreal and Ottawa. The snow, over 20cm in places, fell well east of our area. It included 21cm at Metro Halifax Airport. There were winds of 75-100km/h for the second weekend in a row. Power outages and dangerous roads were the rule. It looks like this weeks cold and white weather for Ontario will be delayed. But make no mistake it is on the way. I think next week we will see some action. Stay tuned.....

On the west coast, BC is being hammered today by a fierce storm with heavy rain on the coast, snow in the interior and 70-100km/h winds. Power is out to thousands of homes at this hour.

Lake Effect snow underway
Bands of Lake Effect snow with thunder and lightning are affecting Georgian Bay, and southern Ontario along with Western New York south of Buffalo. Lake Effect Snow Warnings have been issued for the counties of NY with a Special Weather Statement for Ontario. This afternoon winds are gusting to 80km/h along the north shores of Lake Erie and Ontario at Port Colborne and Point Pelee. Warnings are in effect for those areas.

A cold rain with mixed wet snow and gusty winds will develop tonight along Lake Ontario and in the St. Lawrence Valley and may work its way into North Grenville. It is the time of year that if it is wet treat it like ice...be safe.

Pounding surf from Noel on Ocracoke Island, North Carolina.

Noel worst Storm this season!
In an ironic twist in what was supposed to be a terrible hurricane season along the east coast, Hurricane Noel, possibly the last of 2007 - became the worst. What makes it ironic was that the storm was seemingly a weak and disorganized system from its onset. And yet the storm managed to kill 168 across the Caribbean, more than his predecessors and then blossom into a powerful extratropical storm that hammered the eastern seaboard from Florida to Newfoundland. Over the weekend the storm sent high seas and 100mph winds along the New England and Maritime coasts. At the height of the storm over 250,000 people were without power in those areas. The coasts were hit hard by storm surge flooding and damage was evident up and down the Nova Scotia coast. In addition to the wind, over 100mm of rain fell in areas and even snow fell on the western flank of the system, as much as 20cm in Northern Maine and western New Brunswick.

Happy Halloween

It looks like Halloween is going to be dry and mild in our area. We are forecasting temperatures around 10C with any wet weather holding off till well after midnight. Be safe and have fun!!!!

Tropical storm Noel is a 40mph storm over northern Cuba today. It is forecast to go through the Bahamas and approach the southeast coast of Florida briefly with heavy rain and seas before racing off to the northeast. Indications are that Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be affected by a very strong Extratropical storm by the weekend.

WE WIN!!

Enough said! Thank you Red Sox......

Winds ease in California

The fierce Santa Ana winds that have been blowing at hurricane force for the last several days, eased slightly today allowing firefighters to gain a little ground. Wild fires have been burning hundreds of thousands of acres across both San Diego and LA Counties of southern California. Both areas have been declared Federal Disaster areas. Over 9000 firefighters have been fighting a loosing battle, with hundreds of homes and businesses destroyed. Two people have died and over 75 injured. Temperatures in the 90's, no rain for months and the Santa Ana winds created the "perfect storm" for the fires.

Smoke from the fires can be seen below drifting off the California coast

Thunderstorms on the way
Record Highs in Ontario

The mercury has soared to 24C in Kemptville at 11AM this morning and we may approach 27C before the thunderstorms move in. Already storms are developing along the 401 corridor and they will move into our area. The potent low pressure area has a history of severe weather with over 100 tornadoes in the US in the last 48 hours and numerous reports of wind damage.

Watch the sky this afternoon in eastern Ontario and western Quebec and use the links at the left for WARNINGS or WATCHES or tune into local radio.

Tornado over southern Missouri yeaterday afternoon

Severe Thunderstorms over
Midwest & Gulf Coast
Storms to affect Ontario

A strong Colorado Low is slowly spinning into the Great Lakes at this hour with Heavy rain and fog causing travel delays in Ontario. Heavy rain is expected across Superior, and the Nickel Belt east into the Ottawa Valley. The trailing cold front has been producing a line of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from Chicago to the Gulf Coast. Yesterday over 250 incidents of severe weather were reported along with two fatalities. Already today heavy thunderstorms produced tornadoes along the Florida Gulf Coast. Hardest hit so far was Pensacola, Fla. where a direct hit by a tornado was observed on a shopping mall and daycare facility. No word on injuries at this time from Sherrifs in Escambia County.

As the cold front slides east it will remain very mild ahead of the front in Ontario and Quebec. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will develop by daybreak Friday and spread east. Some storms may become locally severe in our area with wind and hail being the main threat. Watch for warnings and watches.

Go Sox Go

Weather in Cleveland tonight a chance of thunderstorms at 40% at game time.

Frosty start in Kemptville

It was a frosty start to the day in Kemptville and across eastern Ontario. Clear skies allowed the mercury to dip to -1C in Kemptville. I took my traditional first frost photo above. While there has been scattered frost already this season, this was the first time I had to scrape the car. Last year the photo was taken Oct 6. We had a much warmer first week or two this October.

The other photo is the pumpkin patch behind my house. I was waiting for the Great Pumpkin to show, no such luck! Cloud cover and shower activity will keep the threat of frost away for the next several nights.

I'm back!

Greetings readers, sorry for the long absence. I was away in North Carolina for two weeks visiting the beautiful Outer Banks. We had very warm and humid weather for the duration of our trip, more like July. On our way home we even encountered summer like thunderstorms around Albany, NY.

All that went away quickly this weekend in Ontario, as a very fall type air mass took over. It was grey and cool with some showers and even some freezing drizzle in the Ottawa Valley. Frost occured on both Saturday and Sunday mornings. The weather this week will be uneventful. We are expecting fair weather tomorrow with seasonable temperatures followed by a milder but wet period Wednesday through Saturday.

I will post some new weather photos and vacation photos shortly.

Cape Hatteras Light, North Carolina

Awesome late Summer early Fall weather

I love September I really do! This stretch of weather we have now - leading up to the first day of fall, which arrives Sunday, September 23 at 5:55 in the morning will be spectacular. We are expecting temperatures to be in the mid to upper 20's with sunshine right into next week across Ontario, Quebec and New York. Enjoy it!

We are watching with interest a low pressure area off the Florida coast that is producing rough surf and heavy rain from the Carolina's southward. The storm is expected to cross Florida and move into the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow night. Afterwards - most models expect the system to become Tropical Storm Jerry and threaten the Texas and Louisiana coasts by the weekend. Sound familiar?It should, this is eerily similar to Hurricane Humberto last week.

I will be offline for a couple of weeks.....while I will not be writing this blog, the links at the left will remain active for your weather information. Check back often for current weather and watch for any warnings which appear in RED in the forecast boxes.

Thanks for reading, I appreciate your support - slow down and be safe!!!!

Humberto's flooding in Texas

Fall vs Summer

Lots to talk about in the weather...First and foremost I am back among the cyber living. My 7 week ordeal without the Internet at home is over. A big thanks to Cogeco for hooking me up.....I would recommend them highly compared with that other B company that kept me waiting for 6 weeks!

Now the weather......Hurricane Humberto surprised everyone when he rapidly intensified over a 12 hour period from nothing to a Category 1 hurricane. The storm caused severe flooding and wind damage along the upper Texas coast and into Louisiana. It was a very serious situation and showed us just how lethal these storms can be and how quickly they can develop.

Tropical storm Ingrid is way out in the Atlantic with no signs of strengthening, however when we say watch these things we mean watch them.

As we talk about a very summer-like scenario think about the Prairies. It was very cold in southern Saskatchewan this morning with record lows set in Regina at-7.9C (-5.0 1949), Weyburn at -6.6C (-6.0 1993), Moose Jaw -5.5C (-2.4 1999) and Assiniboia -4.2C ( -4.0 1993). Coronach in the southern part of the province was -9.7 the coldest in the province. It was the earliest freeze since 1993. There was also snow flying in the air, enough to measure in Manitoba and northwest Ontario.

Meanwhile the leading edge of that Arctic airmass is moving into southern Ontario and Quebec tonight. Ahead of the system very warm temperatures near 27C are occurring. It will turn windy and colder tonight with showers and thunderstorms. The weekend will be chilly with scattered frost before a warm up next week.

Gabrielle whips sand across NC 12 on the Outer Banks Sunday. AP Photo

Humberto forms in Gulf Of Mexico

TD #9 forms in Atlantic

Tropical storm warnings are flying tonight along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts as tropical storm Humberto has formed about 70 miles southeast of Galveston Island. The storm is expected to come onshore tonight with gusty winds to 50mph and heavy flooding rains over 10 inches in places. The area has had a soggy summer and unlike North Carolina, does not need anymore rain.

Meanwhile Tropical Depression#9 is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm Ingrid later tonight about 1130 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. This storm will be closely watched over the next day or two.

Please take time to remember today.

Gabrielle on the Carolina coast

Looking a bit disorganized, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has moved inland over extreme eastern North Carolina near Cape Lookout with pounding surf and heavy rains. The weather seems to be confined to the eastern part of the state and along the Outer Banks. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Wilmington northward to Cape Charles, Va. The area is expected to feel the effects of the storm till tomorrow morning. The storm is expected to dump up to 4 inches of rain on the parched state. Most of the heavy thunderstorms are confined to the southeast quadrant of the system. Recently wind gusts to 49 mph were reported in Ocracoke and 45 mph at Cape Hatteras.
I know the area very well and will be down there in a few weeks, maybe chasing storms. Gabrielle should be swept out to sea tomorrow as a cold front moves south and east.

Riders of the Storm

Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye of Felix

You need to check out this awesome video of a flight by the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft into the eye of Hurricane Felix as a Category 5 before it made landfall in Mexico. http://www.airshowbuzz.com/videos/view.php?v=9f061057

Another worthy note from Hurricane Felix, the flight just prior to the one above was in a NOAA P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter airplane N42RF (AKA "The Princess"). It had a wild ride in Hurricane Felix on September 2 as it intensified into a Category 5 storm. The airplane hit what the Hurricane Hunters fear most, a powerful updraft followed a few seconds later by an equally powerful downdraft. The resulting extreme turbulence and wind shear likely made the aircraft impossible to control. This very likely pushed the aircraft to its limits. The aircraft commander wisely aborted the mission and returned safely to their base in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands.The airplane was out of commission for the next day, however, the aircraft later passed a detailed six-hour inspection to look for damage, and has been cleared to fly again.

• A Smog Advisory has been issued for Leeds/Grenville in eastern Ontario. Southwest winds are bringing hot, humid and polluted latent air into our area. It was over 30C today with humidex readings well into the 30's. Tomorrow will be evn warmer before a cool down on Friday.

Storm on east coast slow to develop
Surprise nocturnal thunderstorms in North Grenville

The low pressure area southwest of Bermuda this morning has been very slow to develop. Interests along the east coast should continue to be aware of this threat. It is still expected to approach the coast of the Carolina's by Sunday night. In what form is yet to be determined, but expect windy rainy weather from the Outer Banks northward towards Long Island by the end of the weekend.

In local weather- a line of thunderstorms formed unexpectedly overnight. Thunder & lightning and around 5-10mm of rain occurred in Kemptville. We are expecting warm and humid weather today and Friday with highs around 30C (86F).

Possible tropical threat for eastern seaboard

A Hurricane Hunter Recon flight is currently underway along the east coast of Florida about 350 miles out at sea. A an area of low pressure is expected to become TD7 and possibly Tropical Storm Gabrielle within the next 24 hours. The storm is then likely to retrograde back towards the coast as high pressure to the northeast blocks its movement. We could be seeing a tropical system moving along the coast from the Outer Banks northeastward towards New England by the weekend. There is still much uncertainty among computer models with many different scenarios as to the track of this potential storm. I will keep a close eye on the system and update the blog tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Felix at Landfall this morning in Central America.

Bits and Bites and a little complaining


Ah where to begin. First and foremost my battle with Bell continues. I have been waiting over a month for delivery of a modem promised to me in one to two business days from Bell Sympatico Internet Service. That was August 6. So far nothing so I am switching to Cogeco, I will let you know how that goes. So my entries have been limited, I apologize.

We have just witnessed a second Category 5 storm of the 2007 season to hit Central America. This is very far south for these storms, they are record breakers. Hurricane Felix followed Dean's path for awhile, but then moved a little more south into Honduras, Nicaragua and Belize. Winds gusted over 165mph as the storm roared inland with a 15-20 foot wall of water. The rain will be a big problem in the mountainous areas - with up to 20 inches of rain possible. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 hit this area with over 10,000 deaths reported mostly from flooding and mudslides. No deaths at this point.

Frost - you heard right frost is expected in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains tonight with lows around 32-37F expected. It will rebound into the 80 plus temperature range by Wednesday. You have to love fall in the north country. It should remain above freezing with no frost in North Grenville and the Seaway tonight.

What a Labour Day Weekend in The Seaway.

This is St. Lawrence Park in Brockville, Ontario this past Sunday.

Lines of Severe Thunderstorms hit area


Severe Thunderstorms are moving through Eastern Ontario tonight. Warnings and Watches have been posted for all areas. It was a very muggy day in the province with temperatures in the low thirties and very humid. A cold front is slicing into the muggy air with the result being several waves of storms. I was in west end Ottawa tonight experiencing one of the storms. It was fairly tame with the exception of the lightning, which was amazing. Several cells on radar in the upper Ottawa Valley are approaching severe limits - so more weather is on the way tonight.

Dean crossing the coast as a Cat 5 yesterday

Dean weakens to Tropical Storm

The remains of Hurricane Dean will ring itself out over the mountains of central Mexico tonight which as much as 20 inches of rain. The rain will produce life threatening mudslides and flooding in the area. The Storm moved onshore for the final time today near Veracruz, Mexico. Meanwhile the Yucatan is recovering and slowly cleaning up from yesterday's brush with the Category 5 storm. Remarkably no deaths were reported so far in Mexico. Jamaica's south coast is cleaning up also with total destruction is some cases. 13 deaths occurred there and also in the Lesser Antilles.

The storm behaved well and was exceptionally forecast by the National Hurricane Center. That, and a quick response by authorities along the track of Dean, prevented a far greater catastrophe. It also helped that the storm skirted islands and made landfall in an area of the Yucatan with little population. Sadly it still managed to destroy many home in and just north of Chetumel, Mexico.

Dean getting stronger

Hurricane Dean is just shy of Category 5 status at this hour. The storm is located about 330 miles east of Belize City in the western Caribbean Sea heading slightly due north of west. The storm is expected to make landfall overnight tonight on the Yucatan south of Cozumel. The storm is then expected to cross the peninsula and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico before approaching Tampico on the Gulf Coast of Mexico Wednesday- possibly as a Category three hurricane. What all this means is that massive evacuations were expected along both coastlines as Dean approaches. Thousands of tourists were boarding planes away from the Yucatan yesterday and today.

It appears that the damage was extensive along the south coast of Jamaica but not as bad as feared. Ten deaths have been blamed on the storm so far. Residents in extreme south Texas near Brownsville were being asked to leave the low lying coastal areas prior to landfall in Mexico as a precaution.

Dean spares Jamaica

Serious damage - but it could have been worse

Hurricane Dean wobbled south of Jamaica yesterday producing heavy rain, mudslides and 115mph winds. It could have been far worse. The Cat 4 storm is moving west of the Island nation this morning and is about 415 miles from the Belize coast. The next target will be that country and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The area will be hammered by the storm which we expect will be a Category 5 by then, producing 155mph winds and gusts to 185. The damage could be catastrophic in places. The area has just finished rebuilding from Wilma in 2005.

I apologize for the problems providing updates on this blog. My home computer is out and I am working on it. In the meantime the Hurricane City link on the left has all the latest information and links 0n the storm.

• The remains of Tropical Storm Erin meantime rung itself out over Oklahoma yesterday morning with 9 inches of rain in just a few hoursin and around King Fisher County. The result was severe flash flooding. At least 7 deaths were blamed on the storm. Numerous water rescues were carried out all day, reminiscent of Katrina in 2005. The storm is producing rain across Missouri, Kentucky and Illinois today.

Next update will be around 5pm today....

Dean a Cat 2 storm

pounding Lesser Antilles

Hurricane Dean is pounding Martinique and neighboring islands this morning with fierce winds and rain. Winds have been reported up to 87mph overnight. The storm is producing 5-10 inches of rain and waves and storm surge of up to 10 feet in places. It is expected to move away from the islands later today. Next in the storms path will be Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The storm is riding the southern edge of the Bermuda high that has been baking the US southeast. That is good news for that area but very bad news for south Texas. Projections have the storm heading for coastal Texas by the middle part of next week as a major hurricane.

Dean becomes Hurricane
Severe Thunderstorms in Ontario


Several lines of severe thunderstorms are passing across the St. Lawrence Valley and Eastern Ontario this afternoon. The air is very unstable and a weak cold front is slicing through it. Temperatures rose rapidly behind a warm front this morning up to around 29C.The storms should taper off by the supper hour.Warnings and Watches are in effect for all of eastern Ontario and Upstate New York.

Hurricane Dean continues to strengthen as it heads rapidly westward through the Atlantic and Caribbean. The storm is expected to brush the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands tomorrow before taking aim at the Yucatan, Cozumel and Cancun. The storm is forecast to become a major Category 4 Hurricane by Sunday. All interests in the Gulf and Coastal Mexico should pay close attention to this potentially dangerous storm.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Erin moved inland over south Texas northeast of Corpus Christie this morning with heavy rain, flooding and isolated tornadoes. Full details can be found at this link: http://www.kristv.com/Global/story.asp?S=6942390

Tropical Storm Erin approaching the Texas Gulf Coast

Dean continues west

Erin forms in Gulf of Mexico

The tropics continue active today as Tropical Storms Dean and Erin have developed. Dean is expected to continue west while intensifying and could become the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2007 season. The storm is expected to approach the Dominican Republic and Haiti by weeks end, potentially as a major hurricane.

In the meantime Tropical Storm Erin formed only hours ago in the Gulf of Mexico about 250 miles east of Brownsville. Tropical Storm Warnings have been raised for the lower Texas Coast south of Freeport into northern Mexico. The biggest threat from Erin will be torrential tropical rains in excess of 5 inches and up to 8 inches in places. The official update can be found at this link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/151536.shtml

The expected path of Tropical Storm Dean

Hurricane Flossie moving south of the big island of Hawaii today

The Tropics heat up

Hurricane Flossie is skirting the big island of Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean today. Towering waves of up to 25 feet are expected to cause some flooding along the south coast of the island. Also heavy rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides. Winds are expected in the 40-60mph range over extreme southern areas.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic midway between the African coast and the US Virgin Islands, we find Tropical Storm Dean. Forecasters are expecting Dean to continue moving towards the west northwest along the southern edge of the Bermuda high. By Friday the storm should be approaching the far eastern Caribbean Islands as a hurricane. All interest in the US southeast should monitor this storm as it looks to be the first of the season to threaten the area. Keep in mind we are over a week away from this happening if at all.

A car sits under a washed out section of road near Placentia Bay.

Tropical Strom Chantal floods Newfoundland
High heat and humidity in Ontario/ Quebec

Southeast Newfoundland received between 100-150mm of rain in as little as six hours yesterday morning causing serious flooding in the southeast part of the province. Many roads were washed out and homes flooded. Several motorists narrowly escaped death when there cars were washed into culverts. Sections of the Trans Canada Highway were washed out near Placentia Bay. Roads in St. John's were flooded as well. Tropical Storm Chantal, the third of the season, brushed the southeast part of the province late Tuesday night. The storm formed over the the open Atlantic east of North Carolina and raced northeast.

• High heat and humidity warnings continue in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto today. Heat emergencies have been declared and cooling shelters opened. Record highs can be expected today with the mercury soaring into the mid 30's over many areas. Humidex values will push over 40C. Drink plenty of water and limit outdoor activities, unless it is a beer by the water!

Tropical Depression Three
off East Coast

• Blazing Heat continues - spreads east

• A friend turns 200,000

• Just a few quick notes this wonderful July morning. The month is almost over. What started as a rainy and unseasonably cool month will end very hot for most of the country. This will be Ontario's hottest week of the year to date. High temperatures will be over 30C right into the weekend. Temps in the west have been close to 40C in Saskatchewan once again. A humidex reading of 53C was recorded in that province on the weekend, the warmest ever!

• This weekend the NASCAR Busch cars are in Montreal. I will be there, needless to say. The weather sunny and warm, awesome, thank you weather gods!

• The third tropical depression of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season has formed about 310 miles southeast of Massachusetts. As you can see on the map above the storm is expected to become Tropical Storm Chantal. it is forecast to skirt the Avalon off Newfoundland with gusty winds and heavy rain. The tropics are heating up, with forecasters watching several other waves developing. I imagine our quiet season to date is about to come to an end. Please stay away from the Outer Banks!

• An important friend of mine turned 200,000, kilometres that is, at exit 619 on the 401 on Thursday. My Saturn SL1, while not the 69 Charger I have always dreamed of, has taken me everywhere. It has not only taken me to and from the ones I love but has also proved a valuable friend in storm chasing, and it has the hail dents to prove it. Thank you Little Limo! My beautiful daughter below with the car in the background (red) in line for the Glenora fery, on our latest adventure to Sandbanks!

Close to 90mm of rain fell in Kemptville

Blazing Heat in Saskatchewan

Heavy Rain in Ontario

The rain of last week created havoc and flooding across parts of Eastern Ontario. Radar estimates and observations showed that as much as 150mm of rain fell in less than 24 hours, smashing records in places. Kemptville had over 90mm. Flooding was reported in area businesses. In the Renfrew area many fields were underwater with bales of hay floating away. Part of the embankment under the tracks on the Wakefield Steam Train line north of Ottawa were washed away.

In Saskatchewan it is the lack of rain and the blazing heat. A record and dangerous heatwave is underway in that province as well as Manitoba, the Dakotas and Montana. Temperatures soared to 38C in Val Marie, Saskatchewan yesterday and again today. Some place will reach 40C tomorrow. Only slight relief is on tap the middle part of the week with a stray shower or two, then back into the mid thirties to end the week.

Merrickville-Wolford - Kemptville
1:39 PM EDT Friday 20 July 2007
Rainfall warning for Merrickville-Wolford - Kemptville continued. Heavy downpours expected to continue this afternoon. An upper disturbance affecting eastern Ontario this afternoon will continue to produce heavy rain. Several localities have already reported amounts of 50 to 100 millimetres. Over 75mm in Kemptville. Additional local rain amounts up to 50 millimetres are possible. Visibility may be occasionally reduced in heavy downpours. Rain will taper to scattered showers in the next couple of hours for the City of Ottawa but linger until early this evening along the Seaway Valley.

Flooding on Prescott Street in Kemptville

Flooding Rains continue in Ontario

70mm since last night

Torrential rains continue to fall in Eastern Ontario at noon. The heavy rains are beginning to cause flooding in basements and businesses in the Kemptville area. Over 7cm (70mm or 3 inches!) of rain has fallen, most of that since 4am. The rain is filling ditches, and rivers are beginning to rise.

Pumps have been brought in the help the businesses on Prescott Street in Kemptville.

The system responsible is spinning in place over the 416 corridor and is continuing to dump heavy rain. Warnings remain in effect.

Totals to 10am:

LOCATION

TORONTO (DOWNTOWN) 62mm

TORONTO (DOWNSVIEW) 40

TORONTO (BURNHAMTHORPE) 48

APPLETON (SW OF OTTAWA) 63

BALACLAVA (NEAR RENFREW) 93

BARRIE 44

COBOURG 47

COLDWATER 100

COLLINGWOOD 49

DRUMMOND CENTRE 40 (N OF PERTH)

KEMPTVILLE 58 to 10am 12 more mm since

MUSKOKA 61

ORILLIA 106

OTTAWA 43 (AS OF 10 AM)

PETERBOROUGH 23

PETAWAWA 102

TRENTON 20

Over 60mm of rain has fallen in Kemptville in the past 24 hours

Heavy Rain and Flooding
If you built an arc, kudos to you. It has been raining heavily since about 4am in Kemptville. We have had 60mm in the past 24 hours most of that, about 40mm falling since 4am. The water is ponding on roadways and poor drainage areas and causing slick travel.


Heavy Rain Warnings are in effect for all of southeastern Ontario. The culprit is a slow moving upper low spinning over our area. There have even been embedded thunderstorms adding to the totals. The rain is falling in upstate New York as well where Flood Advisories have been posted for St. Lawrence County. The rain should taper off by noon, leaving an excellent weekend behind it.

More sun than rain east
Blazing heat west

The sun is shinning a little more these days in Ontario and Quebec, despite this however it remains cooler than normal. The normal high in Montreal and Ottawa should be 27C. So far this summer more than 75 per cent of the days have had some form of rainfall, be it showers or thunderstorms. There have been numerous reports of hail and severe weather as well, and just generally unsettled. Last night (Sunday, July 15) thunderstorms raced across the St. Lawrence Valley and into the Valleyfield area around 9pm, with spectacular lightning, hail and heavy rain.

This pattern will continue again this week in Ontario, at least till Friday. Temperatures will be in the mid-twenties, with the threat of showers each day.

The west is a much different story. A large ridge of high pressure building in from the desert southwest will push very hot air into parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Temperatures are expected to soar into the 30's and approach 40C by the weekend over Saskatchewan and Montana. Keep cool! Along the boundary of warm air, thunderstorms produced golf ball and baseball size hail in Alberta today.

The east will warm up into next week I believe. That is little comfort for those who have tried to camp, or swim on the five weekends so far this summer. Each one has sported below normal temperatures and rain. So far, next weekend looks good...keep your fingers and toes crossed!

Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County
12:34 PM EDT Wednesday 11 July 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County downgraded from tornado warning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is eastward across the above regions. Some of these storms contain damaging winds and large hail. Some of these storms could also produce tornadoes.

Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County
12:22 PM EDT Wednesday 11 July 2007

Tornado warning for Smiths Falls - Perth - Eastern Lanark County
A possible tornado is located between Renfrew and White Lake. This dangerous storm is moving eastward toward the Arnprior area.Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details.Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details.

It will be a dangerous couple of hours in Eastern Ontario. Stay alert, the front should pass by 3pm east of our area.

Tornado Warnings in Ontario

Supercell thunderstorms are developing in the very warm humid air across Ontario, Quebec and New York.

Keep and eye to the sky and check out the weather links on the left hand side.

Here is my weather column from the Iroquois Chieftain for this week...

More wicked severe summer weather developed again across Ontario this week. Two more tornadoes touched down just south of Walkerville. The tornadoes were part of a very impressive supercell thunderstorm that moved off Lake Huron towards Lake Erie. It lasted over 7 hours and produced hail and fierce straight line winds. Damage was limited to some farms with no injuries reported. In our area several thunderstorms popped up in the warm and humid air mass on Monday. The storms developed rapidly and moved south along a line from Winchester to Cardinal and east to Morrisburg. To show you just how fast these storms can surprise you on an otherwise fair day, within 30 minutes the storms had developed and moved south of the river into central New York. By the time warnings were issued the storms had passed out of our area. When the air is extremely unstable with high humidity and heat, thunderstorms are always possible. Learn how to spot them before they affect you and seek shelter, especially if you are on the open water, or the golf course.
The storms are part of the leading edge of very hot, searing heat that has been affecting the US and west. It was close to 40C in southwest Saskatchewan and southern Alberta late last week. Meanwhile triple digit Fahrenheit heat and record wildfires continue to affect the US West. Hundreds of thousands of acres are burning from South Dakota to California. One wildfire in Utah, is a killer, and is consuming at times, an astonishing 10,000 acres an hour.
We will continue to be on the edge of this heat with numerous weather systems bringing us bouts of hot followed by very cool weather and in between thunderstorms. This is typical Summer weather in our latitudes especially when we are on the fringe of the warm high pressure that is heating up the US.
For updates and important links to weather right here in the Seaway, visit my website at http://valleyweather.blogspot.com/

Above: A car is consumed by a landslide in Ottawa.

Below: Torn branches from severe weather near Walkerton

High risk of severe weather today

Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been posted for a wide area of upstate New York, Vermont, Southern Quebec and have been extended into Eastern Ontario. This morning a series of storms swept across the area with hail, high winds and heavy rain. These storms came on the heals of yesterday's storms that produced heavy rain and tornadoes in southwest Ontario. The heavy rain in the Ottawa area, over 20mm, contributed to a landslide that swept a car down a 25 metre embankment. No one was injured but 21 people were evacuated from nearby homes.

Environment Canada has confirmed that 2 tornadoes touched down in the farm country west of Walkerton, Ontario yesterday. Thousands are without power. The air remains sultry in the province with very high humidity and temperatures approaching 30C in many areas. The heat is spreading north from the US where a two week triple digit heatwave countinues, and is spreading to the east.

The risk is high for severe weather in our area today, stay alert.

Humidex readings will approach 40C.

Record Heat

It was a steamy day across Ontario yesterday with numerous record highs recorded including the 34C in Ottawa and 35C in Kemptville. It remains hot today with heat and humidity advisories posted for all our areas. Air Quality Advisories are also posted in New York State. At noon today it is 32C in Ottawa with the highest humidex in country at 44C!

The end to the heat is upon us as a cold front cuts into our area. Our focus now shifts to severe weather with the potential for heavy thunderstorms across the entire southern half of Ontario and into the Seaway and Quebec this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be abundant rainfall in the humid air mass, over 50mm is possible. High winds and dangerous lightning are also a risk

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on10

Humidex Values near 40C Tuesday

High heat and humidity warnings are in effect for most of Ontario and southwest Quebec for Tuesday and Wednesday. A very muggy air mass from the US will invade the area. Temperatures will soar into the mid 30's with Humidex values approaching 40-45C. Drink plenty of fluids and limit outdoor activities. The very young and old are at particular risk as well as those living in large urban areas.

Thunderstorms will cool us off late Wednesday.

An amazing photo from CTV.ca of the Elie tornado

Saskatchewan and Manitoba
hammered by severe weather

Environment Canada has confirmed that the tornado that touched down in the Trans Canada Highway community of Elie, Manitoba west of Winnipeg was an F-4 tornado on the Fujita Scale of 0-5. The very rare storm was intense, capable of producing winds in excess of 250km/h. Damage was severe in the town with many homes destroyed. It was a miracle that no injuries occurred. The storm was part of a series of twisters over 5, and thunderstorms that produced severe damage across both Saskatchewan and Manitoba Friday and Saturday. Golf ball size hail flattened crops while strong winds and lightning knocked down trees and left many communities in the dark.

In Ontario last weeks thunderstorms caused a house to burn down on Wednesday, just west of Kemptville on Donahue Road. Both Kemptville and Merrickville Fire Departments responded to the call. I will post pictures tomorrow.

The system that is producing the sever weather in the west will cause heat and humidity to be on the increase in Ontario and Quebec this week before another cool down by the weekend. Before that expect temperatures in the low 30's this week with thunderstorm activity on the rise.

Damage in Elie, Manitoba

Happy Summer

Summer arrives at 14:06 EDT today and it is the longest day of the year. The sun rose over eastern Ontario at 5:15 this morning and will set at 8:53 tonight. That will give us 15:38 minutes of daylight. Sadly the days begin to shorten from here.

According to www.almanac.com the timing of the summer solstice depends on when the Sun reaches its farthest point north of the equator. This usually occurs annually sometime between June 20 and 22, announcing the beginning of summer. The word solstice is from the Latin solstitium, from sol (sun) and stitium (to stop), reflecting the fact that the Sun appears to stop at this time.

The weather will be partly cloudy today with a good chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon after 2pm. A cold front may trigger some severe weather as well this afternoon in eastern Ontario and Upstate New York with some small hail and gusty winds. The weekend looks sunny and seasonable on Saturday and unsettled with more thunderstorms and humid Sunday. Highs will be in the 22-26C range (72-78F) for the next 4 days.

The Thousand Islands Bridge at Hill Island in yesterday's warm front showers.

Severe Weather possible today in Ontario

Keep a weather eye on the sky today in Ottawa, Montreal and along the Seaway. There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorm activity as a strong cold front moves into very muggy air. This morning the temperature in Kemptville rose from 12C (54F) at 6am to 22C (72F) at 8am. You could smell the warm air flooding in on southeast winds. It will reach 31C today before the cold front moves in. The front has a history of severe weather across the Great Lakes and Midwest US. Environment Canada has already posted a Watch for our area at the following link:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on41

And from the National Weather Service Office in Vermont

The best threat will be between 3-7pm in our area. Strong winds, heavy rain and even hail are possible.

My 200th Weather post...

A series of thunderstorms swept north from upstate New York on Saturday, June 2. They created widespread damage. Above are some of the pictures taken from Iroquois, Ontario. Below is a mature thunderstorm over the St. Lawrence River Valley.

Photos Joe Morin

Tropical Strom Barry produced heavy rain up the entire East Coast. TheNASCAR race in Dover was rained out this weekend....

Severe storms this afternoon...

The unstable air mass, a stationary front and the remains of Tropical Storm Barry that have been affecting our weather for the last week will all be swept east today by a potent cold front. The air is very unstable and an afternoon of severe thunderstorms is on tap for eastern Ontario and west Quebec.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/warnings_e.html

The site above has all the latest warnings. I will have an update on the weekend activity as well later today. Be safe.

Stationary front sparks storms

A stationary front lying along the Ottawa River has been the focus for some big thunderstorms over the last two days. To the south of the front conditions are in the 20's with muggy air. The front is generating these storms which then slide southeast across the river and into Ontario. The result has been heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Some of the storms were affected by the southwest winds blowing south of the front and developed rotation north of Kingston this afternoon. A Tornado Warning was issued but none were reported as of this time.

The front will continue to provide energy and with daytime heating we can expect more storms tomorrow over eastern Ontario and west Quebec.

At this time a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for portions of Eastern Ontario including Lanark County and Smiths Falls. More storms are moving south of the front and about to leave the Gatineau Hills and move into Ontario. Stay alert and click on this link for updated warnings...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/son_e.html

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
for:Brockville - Leeds and Grenville Friday, May 25 2:50pm
CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM. THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

Snow from the train last Monday near Rimouski, Quebec

Record Heat in Ontario

Well a week that started for me in snow on the Gaspe Peninsula is ending with record heat. Many areas of eastern Ontario surpassed record highs yesterday with temperatures from 31C to 33C. This beat records established in 1991. It was hazy and humid as well. Smog Advisories remain in effect across our area and into New York. The air quality will improve tonight as a cold front sweeps across the area. We can expect some thunderstorm activity along the front.

Saturday will be pleasant with seasonable temperatures. Sunday will be showery with some thunderstorms.

While we were enjoying the hot weather yesterday, portions of Alberta had snow. Calgary awoke to about 5cm of wet heavy snow as did parts of Saskatchewan. Frost was reported across the area last night and this morning.