Weather pattern trying to change in Montreal

While the weather has been fairly snow free here in Montreal, other parts of the country have not been so lucky. The storm above impacted southern Ontario in late November, missing southern Quebec. Another system Sunday, will give more snow to the same region, blanketing the 401 corridor from Cornwall to Kingston and missing Montreal. (Photo OPP)

It has certainly been a very mild fall in Montreal and across most of eastern Canada in 2022, with temperatures running well above the long-term normal. The same cannot be said for the western portion of the country, where snowstorms and intrusions of arctic air have been common. This is a typical La Nina setup that we have become all too familiar with over the last three winters here in Montreal. If you are not a fan of cold and snow, then you would love this scenario.

To date Montreal has received a paltry 0.2cm of snow in December. The normal for the month is 48.9cm. In November, 14.6cm fell at Trudeau Airport in Dorval, on the strength of one storm. The normal for November is 19cm. It was a wet month, just way too warm for snow, with 104mm of rain falling. No period of prolonged cold has been able to become established across our region.

Instead of snow and cold, Montreal has had a series of weather systems this fall that have produced windy, wet and mild weather. The wind has brought down trees and disrupted power over the last two weekends.

As we look ahead to the rest of December, we see a pattern change desperately trying to evolve. Temperatures remained well below freezing on Saturday, after another December stretch of above freezing temperatures. So far this month,  only two days have featured below freezing highs. Saturday was the coldest day of the month, with a high of -4C (25F) and gusty northeast winds , with a biting windchill in the minus teens.

On Sunday, yet another low pressure system will miss Montreal, giving us perhaps a few flurries, with 5 to10cm of snow falling just southwest of the city from the Ontario border towards Kingston and south into upstate New York. Keep this in mind if you are traveling south or west.

The pattern change I mentioned will develop this week, with cold air trying to move into our region and remain in place through the week. A very complicated weather pattern is setting up for the end of the work week and into next weekend. Several areas of low pressure are expected to develop over the western portion of the US, moving towards the Great Lakes and eastern seaboard. This could lead to an significant snowfall Saturday, but there are too many variables yet to work out. It could be another miss. One thig seems a little more certain, and that is temperatures will feel more like December like throughout the holiday period. At least that is what it looks like today. Stay tuned!

Another round of wind and rain for Montreal

A quick shot of snow fell early Thursday morning behind a strong cold front. The snow quickly iced roads leading to several accidents southwest of Montreal. Gusty west and southwest winds of 50-90km/h kept Hydro-Quebec crews busy. Another wind event is expected late Saturday. Wind warnings have been issued for Montreal. (Valley Weather Photo)

Wind warning posted for southern Quebec and southern Ontario

Lather, rinse, repeat. In what has become an all-too familiar pattern, we are in for more wet weather and strong winds Saturday, followed by another brief shot of cold air and flurries. This will be the third such system, with a fourth on tap for Tuesday before the pattern alters somewhat. Snow has been hard to find in southern Quebec this fall.

The storms have been punishing the Prairies over the course of the last month, with periodic snowstorms followed by brutal arctic air. Case in point this morning, as I write this, Winnipeg is -22C (-8F) while Montreal is at 5C. Over the last two morning, dozens of record lows have been set from Alberta to Manitoba.

Each storm system for the last two weeks has been travelling well north and west of Montreal, placing us solidly in the warm sector. That has been followed by potent cold fronts, with gusty winds and quickly dropping temperatures.

The current storm will do the same, lifting across the Great Lakes and into central Quebec. The cold front arrives late Saturday, preceded by a period of rain. Strong southwest winds will channel down Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley, reaching speeds of 60-90km/h by Saturday afternoon and evening. Widespread wind warnings are in effect from Windsor, Ontario to Montreal.

The wind will ease overnight but remain gusty in the 30-50km/h range into Sunday. Temperatures will be very mild Saturday, 8C (48F) in Montreal, falling to -6C (21F) overnight and remaining below freezing at -2C (30F) Sunday. A few flurries are possible overnight. We will repeat the same weather cycle on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, before colder air and perhaps a more significant snow event arrive next weekend.

The cold front last Wednesday, produced wind gusts up to 90km/h across southern Quebec. The wind caused some minor tree and structural damage as well power outages to more than 50,000 Hydro-Quebec customers. In addition to the wind, snow squalls early Thursday morning, put down a quick centimetre or two of snow in several locations including here on Ile Perrot. The snow quickly iced up roads leading to a rash of accidents, especially off-island to the west of Montreal.

Wet and windy fall storm on the way for southern Quebec

A strong fall cold front will produce a wide variety of weather across southern Quebec and Ontario Wednesday into Thursday. Mild temperatures and strong southerly winds on Wednesday in Montreal, will be replaced by cold. blustery west winds and flurries by Thursday. Winds may gust as high as 90km/h. Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with 20 to 50mm across southern Quebec.

A special weather statement is in effect for the Montreal region for 10-20mm of rainfall and gusty south winds up to 80km/h during the day and evening hours Wednesday. Weather warnings have also been posted for the St. Lawrence Valley northeast of Montreal for heavy rain and some mixed precipitation. Meanwhile across northern New York and New England, wind advisories have been hoisted for Wednesday. Additional weather warnings may bee needed as the system evolves over the next 24 hours.

The culprit is a deepening area of low pressure across the upper Midwest, that is forecast to move across central Ontario towards James Bay on Wednesday, and then eastward across northern Quebec on Thursday. The storm will drag a strong cold front across the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec during the midday hours Wednesday.

Tuesday was a cloudy, chilly day in Montreal despite high pressure trying to nose into the region. Clouds will thicken and lower early Wednesday, as winds increase from the south gusting 50-70km/h. Rain should arrive by late morning, becoming heavy at times throughout the afternoon, before tapering off to flurries late in the evening as the cold air arrives. The temperature in Montreal will rise quickly Wednesday morning, up to 9C (49F), before dropping in the evening, back below the freezing point to -2C (29F) by Thursday morning. The high will struggle back to the freezing point Thursday. Thursday will blustery and chilly in the St. Lawrence Valley, with perhaps a few snow showers around. There may even be some isolated heavier snow squalls at times.

This storm is rather dynamic, producing a wide variety of weather across eastern North America. Heavy snow is falling across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Freezing rain and mixed precipitation is expected across central Ontario into portions of central Quebec. Strong winds are forecast for much of the eastern Seaboard and Northeast. Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes are occurring across the southern US from Louisiana and Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama. Some locations in Ontario and western New York will see another round of lake effect snow as colder air pours into the area behind the departing storm.

Milder temperatures and rain expected into the weekend

While Montreal received a rather tame 14.6cm of snow over the last week, parts of the Great Lakes were buried under metres of snow. Over 150cm (58 inches) of snow fell near Watertown, New York off Lake Ontario, while an incredible 207cm (81.5 inches) fell at Hamburg, south of Buffalo. The home of the Buffalo Bills, Orchard Park, received over 200cm, as much snow as Montreal receives in an entire winter. The photo above is a Lewis County plow struggling down a country road in the Town of Harrisville, northeast of Watertown. (New York State Association of Town Superintendents & Highways)

Our extended period of below normal temperatures and early winter weather is about to come to an end in Montreal. High temperatures have been rather chilly over the last week to ten days, well below the normal highs of 3C (38F) expected in late November.  If you did not like the early taste of winter, milder air and a period of rain is in our future. 

The weather has been a rather unsettled this week across southwestern Quebec, with a little bit of everything thrown in for good measure. Skies have been cloudy for the most part, with some sunny breaks at times, along with periods of very light snow or flurries. The snow has not amounted to much, with the bulk of the deeper moisture remaining closer to the Great Lakes in Ontario and across parts of New York State.

Only 14.6 cm of snow has fallen at Trudeau Airport over the past week, while over 200cm fell on portions of western New York, especially across the metro Buffalo south towns. Hamburg, New York recorded 81.5 inches of snow, an incredible 207cm over a three day period. From this one lake-effect storm, Hamburg and Orchard Park received as much snow as Montreal expects in an average winter. The long-term average for Montreal is 209cm (82.5 inches). Recent years have seen even less, with only 150 to 175cm falling during each of the last three winters. 

The historic lake-effect snowstorm spilled onto the Canadian side of the border last Saturday, impacting the 401 corridor from Kingston to Cornwall. Locations close to the Thousand Islands region received nearly 25cm. Highway 401 was a mess in several locations, with multiple accidents reported. Along the Lake Huron shoreline as well as off Lake Erie, between 30 and 60cm fell.

All that snow is just a memory now as a warmer weather pattern is expected over the next week. High pressure will provide us with clearing skies Wednesday, followed by a sunny, mild Thursday. Expect high temperatures above the freezing point to 4C (39F). On Friday, a frontal boundary will deliver clouds and light rain, possibly changing to snow showers late in the evening. Temperatures will be mild, up to 6C (43F). After a fair day Saturday, a more potent weather system will arrive for Sunday into Monday. The storm, originating from Texas, will pass to the west of Montreal, allowing for milder air and rain. As the storm lifts to out north and east, colder air will arrive allowing the precipitation to taper off to flurries. I will have more details on this storm as we draw closer to the weekend.

Historic Lake Effect snowstorm to deliver some snow to southern Quebec

Heavy lake effect snow off Lake Erie has piled up over 50cm overnight in the suburbs south of downtown Buffalo. Light snow from the Lake Ontario snow band will reach extreme southwestern Quebec today and Saturday. (Photo via Twitter @AnthonyFarnell) Anthony Farnell is the Chief Meteorologist for Global News.

Light snow falling across extreme southwestern Quebec Friday morning is from the lake effect snow band off Lake Ontario impacting western New York and portions of southern Ontario. This band of snow is forecast to be exceptionally intense today into the weekend, as it delivers as much as 100cm (40 inches) of snow to the regions around Watertown, New York. A second band off Lake Erie will deliver just as much snow to Buffalo and the suburbs south of the city.

As far as southern Quebec is concerned, the snow will be very intermittent and scattered in nature over the next 24-36 hours, primarily falling from Ile Perrot southwest into eastern Ontario and south to the New York State border. Expect 2cm to as much as 8cm in the most persistent bands, especially on Saturday. In Ontario, near-whiteout conditions are possible along Highway 401 west of Brockville towards Kingston as the band lifts north across the St. Lawrence Valley. In some locations 20 to 30cm of fresh snow is possible. Gusty winds will create areas of blowing snow. 

In Lake effect snow, conditions can change quickly from sunny skies to heavy snow and strong winds within a few kilometres.

Off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, a second band is forecast to move well inland across central Ontario, possibly reaching the Ottawa region late Saturday.

Off Lake Erie, a heavy band of snow has been pounding the region south of Buffalo since late Thursday. Overnight, very heavy snow fell across western New York, with 19cm in Buffalo, 45cm in Orchard Park and 50cm in Hamburg. The snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning at times as well as strong winds up to 70km/h. A state of emergency is in effect for portions of western New York through the weekend. On Friday, schools are closed, along with restrictions on transportation. The NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns scheduled for 1pm Sunday, has been moved to Detroit.

Lake effect snow is also expected in the Niagara region of Ontario as well as the north shore of Lake Erie from Long Point to Fort Erie. 

The lake effect snow is being caused by gusty west and southwest winds blowing unseasonably cold air across the wide-open warmer lakes. Conditions should begin to improve by Sunday as the bands shift south and begins to dissipate.

Consider postponing any travel along Highway 401 into Ontario as well as Interstate 81 and 90 in New York today through Sunday.

All of a sudden the weather feels like mid-winter in Montreal, with the coldest morning lows of the season and a fresh blanket of snow on the ground Friday morning. Gusty west winds, chilly temperatures near -1C (30F) and flurries are expected into the weekend. (ValleyWeather Photo)

First snow of the season falling across the Montreal region

The morning commute has been challenging in the greater Montreal region, as the first snow of the season falls. Expect 5-10cm of west snow today, accompanied by gusty northeast winds. More snow is forecast south and east of the city, up to 25cm locally. (Valley Weather Photo)

Snow has been falling steadily over southern Quebec for the last few hours, with 3cm on the ground here on Ile Perrot as of 9am. Low pressure is lifting across Lake Ontario while weakening, with a second storm system developing along the east coast. That storm will move northeast along the New England coast today into Thursday. The result will be around 10cm of wet snow for Montreal, more east of the city in the Townships and Quebec City region. 

Roads have quickly become snow covered Wednesday morning in Montreal, along with reduced visibility. There have been a rash of accidents across the region, including a six vehicle pile-up on Highway 50 near Grenville, closing that stretch of road in both directions. We are marginally cold for snow, sitting at 0.2C here on Ile Perrot. Temperatures will remain near the freezing point over the next 24 hours or so. Gusty northeast winds between 20-40km/h are making it feel rather raw outdoors today. Total accumulations will be in the 5-10cm range across eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec, with 10-20cm south and east of the city.

The heaviest snow moved into the Montreal metro region just in time for the morning commute. The snow is expected to continue through the afternoon hours. (Valley Weather Photo)

The snow should taper off this evening, but expect flurries to persist into Thursday, as we have a very cold, damp flow of air off the Great Lakes. That flow will produce epic lake effect snow in western New York and parts of Ontario. If you have travel plans along Highway 401 or Interstate 81, keep this in mind and plan ahead.

Up to 10cm of snow Wednesday for metro Montreal

The first snow of the season is forecast across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario tonight and Wednesday. Expect snow covered, icy roads for the morning commute on Wednesday. My suggestion is you work from home if you do not have your snow tires on. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Special Weather Statement for southern Quebec.

Winter Weather Advisory for upstate New York and Vermont

Snowfall Warning for the Eastern Townships and Beauce

If you do not have your snow tires on, my advice is that you work from home on Wednesday.

Today will be the calm before the storm, with sunshine and highs around 1C (34F). Clouds will begin to thicken up and lower this evening in response to two low pressure systems, one over the Great Lakes and a stronger developing storm along the east coast. The east coast storm will become the main system, moving northeast into coastal New England on Wednesday.

Marginally cold air will be pulled into the St. Lawrence Valley, cold enough for the first snowfall of the season. Snow should begin in Montreal before the Wednesday morning commute, with temperature right around freezing. Unfortunately it looks like the commute could be a mess, as steady snow is forecast with a few centimetres down by 8am. The snow will continue most of the day, with 5-10cm forecast across the Ottawa Valley, up to 10cm in Montreal, and 15 to 25cm for the Townships, and elevated locations along the US border.

The snow will taper off to flurries late in the day. Temperatures will be at or slightly above freezing on Wednesday in Montreal, dropping down to -1C overnight into Thursday morning. Thursday will be blustery and cold, with steady temperatures and scattered flurries.

Once this storm moves east into Atlantic Canada, a strong westerly flow of cool air will become established across the Great Lakes, producing heavy lake effect snow on Friday and into the weekend. Some locations in Ontario and western New York may be measuring snow in feet. For us, we will remain cloudy and chilly, with scattered flurries into Saturday.

Winter is here folks, the unprecedented warm weather at the start of the month is just a distant memory now. Hopefully many used that time to prepare for the snowy, colder weather.

First snow of the season on the horizon for southern Quebec

Some parts of central and southern Ontario measured the first snow of the season over the weekend as the lake effect snow machine fired up. Montreal should see the first measurable snow this week, along with below normal temperatures. This is in sharp contrast to the record warmth we experienced to start the month of November.

Special Weather Statement in effect for metro Montreal and southern Quebec.

The remnants of tropical storm Nicole dumped very heavy rain across southern Quebec to start the weekend. Between 40 and 80mm fell in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley, with 66.8mm falling at Trudeau Airport. More importantly the storm ushered in cold air on the backside of the system, with a major pattern change now taking place.

Temperatures will be running below normal for at least the next week and perhaps longer, a stark contrast to the very warm November we have had so far. Highs will be at or just above the freezing point with lows well below, as cold as -5C (23F). Additionally, snow is expected this week. The airport actually measured a trace on Sunday as some wet snow mixed in with the showers. It was the first flakes of the season. More significant snow is expected this week across Ontario and Quebec.

Low pressure over Texas is expected to move towards the Ohio Valley and across Lake Erie by late Tuesday. Meanwhile a secondary low is forecast to develop along the Delaware coast, becoming the primary system. This storm will deepen and pass across coastal New England pulling in colder air across southern Quebec.

Snow is expected to begin late Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. Temperatures will be close to the freezing point in Montreal or slightly above, so the snow will be wet. It is early to pinpoint exact amounts, but it looks like a good 5cm for the city, with up to 10cm across the Townships, possibly more at higher elevations. Expect slippery, possibly snow covered roads for the first time this season during the Wednesday morning commute across metro Montreal. The snow will stay around as cold weather is expected into next weekend, along with flurries.

Tropical Storm Nicole to impact southern Quebec

Spectacular fall weather persists in Montreal, with a few more days of above-normal temperatures forecast. Unfortunately clouds will thicken by late Friday, with the approach of tropical storm Nicole from the southern US. Behind Nicole, much colder air will begin to move into our region. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Montreal has experienced record warmth this fall, so why not a tropical storm as well. The remains of Tropical Storm Nicole will be moving across central New England by late Friday afternoon, delivering a swath of heavy rain and gusty winds into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

On Wednesday afternoon, Nicole was located 280 kilometres east of West Palm Beach, Florida, moving west at 19km/h. Hurricane warnings are in effect along the coast, with tropical storm warnings in effect for most of the state. Nicole had winds of 110km/h (70 mph), just shy of hurricane strength. The storm is moving across the Bahamas today and should make landfall along the east-central Florida coast tonight. Nicole is expected to intensify and become a minimal hurricane prior landfall later tonight. 

The system is rather large with tropical force winds extending outward over 700 kilometres from the center of the storm.

A NOAA satellite image of tropical storm Nicole located over the Bahamas Wednesday afternoon. Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane prior to landfall in the wee hours Thursday morning near Port Saint Lucie, Florida. (NOAA)

Once inland, Nicole is expected to gradually weaken while turning northwest and eventually north and northeast as the center moves across Florida and into Georgia and the Carolinas late Thursday. By Friday, the storm will be transitioning into a strong post-tropical storm while moving across central New England towards Atlantic Canada.

At this time the we expect Nicole to transport abundant tropical moisture northward into southern Quebec, with 25 to 75mm (1 to 3 inches) of rain possible. The heaviest rain would be late Friday evening into the overnight hours. Gusty northeast winds are also possible across southern and eastern Quebec, in the 50 to 70km/h range late Friday. 

The exact locations of the heaviest rain and strongest winds will need some fine-tuning. There are still many details to work out, with the storm still off the Florida coast. This forecast will be updated and warnings may be needed for several parts of our region.

Until then, expect sunny, mild weather with highs well-above normal once again both Thursday and Friday. Much colder air will return to southern Quebec by Sunday and into early next week.

Unprecedented warmth establishes dozens of high temperature records across eastern Canada

It will certainly be a return to reality for anyone staying up overnight into the wee hours Tuesday morning to view the full lunar eclipse. Conditions in Montreal will be clear, but windy and cold, with temperatures around 3C (38F), a far cry from the record warmth this weekend.(NASA)

An incredible surge of warm air straight form the Gulf of Mexico, established dozens of new record high temperatures across eastern Canada over the weekend. From Ontario to Atlantic Canada, high temperatures were up to 20 degrees above normal. In southern Quebec, record highs and lows were observed at several locations. The same was true across Ontario, with Toronto recording it's warmest November day ever at 25.2C (77.4F), surpassing the 1950 record of 25C.

At Trudeau Airport in Dorval, the high on Friday was 20.6C (69F), surpassing the previous high of 18.3C (65F) set in 1956. Saturday, featured July like warmth, with a high of 24.3C (76F) and a low of 12.4C (54F), both records for the date. The previous record for November 5 was set all the way back in 1938 (21.1C). Saturday's high was also the warmest November day ever recorded in Montreal, surpassing the November 6, 1948 high of 21.7C (71F). The overnight low into Sunday morning was also a record for the warmest November night at 14.9C (59F). On Sunday many locations established record highs again despite the clouds and showers. Trudeau Airport reached 21.4C (71F), just missing the 1948 record of 21.7C. However other locations in the city, including at my home on Ile Perrot, did reach the record temperature. I recorded a high of 22C (72F), very early in the morning on Sunday, making it feel like an August morning walking the dog.

The above-normal temperatures are persisting Monday morning, as we are already at 14C (56F). The end is in sight however. Cooler air will arrive this evening on gusty northwest winds up to 50km/h. Temperatures will drop down to 2C (36F) tonight, still above normal for early November, but a little more seasonable for sure.

On Tuesday, we can expect a much colder day, with gusty winds and a high of only 8C (48F). The normal high/low for early November in Montreal is 7C/-1C. After a brief warm up late this week, much colder air and even a few flurries will arrive by the weekend. This is just a small part of a wicked cold snap that has been occurring across western Canada. While we have been enjoying summer weather, the west has been in the deep freeze, with lows in the minus teens and highs well below freezing. Widespread snowfall has also occurred across Alberta and Saskatchewan, moving east into Manitoba.

Lunar Eclipse

One final note, the clear skies tonight will allow for a spectacular view of the lunar eclipse. The eclipse of the full Beaver moon will begin at 3:02AM in Montreal Tuesday morning, reach totality at 5:59AM and end by 7:49AM.

Another round of record-breaking warmth for Montreal

Montreal has been enjoying very warm temperatures so far this fall along with little in the way of precipitation. This trend will persist into the upcoming weekend, with several high temperature records set to fall.

Strong high pressure moving across southern Quebec Thursday afternoon, is allowing for rapidly warming temperatures from this mornings chilly lows. The temperature dropped to 0C (32F) in Montreal under clear skies and calm winds early this morning, but has since warmed to 17C (63F) as of 2pm.

We are in for another stretch of record-breaking warmth as southerly winds increase on Friday and into the weekend. The high on Friday is forecast at 21C (70F), likely surpassing the previous benchmark for the date of 18.3C (65F) set in 1956. On Saturday, we are expecting even warmer conditions on gusty southwest winds, with a high near 24C (76F). This would smash the record for Saturday of 19C (66F) set in 1988. Clouds will increase Saturday evening, with a chance for showers on Sunday. The mild weather will persist however, with highs in the middle to upper teens forecast through Monday.

The warm and dry conditions are just a continuation of the weather southwestern Quebec experienced in October. The average high in Montreal last month was 10.4C, well above the normal of 8.5C. We had only 44% of the normal precipitation, with 40mm of rain falling at Trudeau Airport. The long-term normal is 91mm. We had no snow again last month, a trend dating back to the last October snowfall in 2018.

Temperatures were above normal across the entire province of Quebec during October, a trend that is expected to continue well into November. (Environment Canada)

While we continue enjoy temperatures more similar to late August, western Canada will be shivering in sub-freezing weather. Below normal temperatures have swept across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and are moving east into Manitoba. Accompanying the cold has been another round of snow. More snow and cold weather is expected during the upcoming week as a deep trough carves itself out across western North America.

A modified version of that cold air will arrive in Montreal by mid-week with highs dropping down into the single digits by Wednesday and lows below freezing. Enjoy this weekend and take advantage of the weather to finish any outdoor chores that may remain before the snow flies. 

While the weather will turn colder, I am not seeing any major storms on the horizon at this time for Montreal.

Near-perfect weather expected in Montreal for Halloween

Happy Halloween! Trick or Treaters will enjoy a fair, mild evening, with temperatures near 10C (50F), a far cry from the mess of the last 4 years. Enjoy and stay safe.

The headline says it all, after 4 years of rain, wind and Covid, we have a nearly perfect forecast for southern Quebec for trick or treating. High pressure has been in control of our weather all weekend, with sunshine and above normal temperatures. A very weak weather system passing to our south will produce a mix of sun and clouds today, with just a slight risk of some drizzle or a stray shower, but any moisture will hold off until late this evening.

During the trick or treating hours, skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures should be either side of 10C (50F). The week ahead will feature a continued pattern of well above normal temperatures across eastern Canada. A strong ridge of high pressure over eastern North America will keep temperatures very warm through next weekend. More records may fall as the mercury heads towards 21C (70F) by the end of the week in Montreal. That is over double the average expected highs for early November. Overnight lows will be mild as well, above freezing, between 5C and 7C (40 to 45F).

While we can expect warm weather here in southern Quebec, a deep trough in the west will allow arctic air to plunge into the Rockies and Prairies, with cold and more snow expected by the end of this week. The cold weather will push south all the way to California.

Here in Montreal, the weather will remain mild through at least November 10th before we see a pattern change allowing for more seasonable air to arrive. There is no snow in our future at this time.

Record-breaking warmth for southern Quebec

Despite the very warm temperatures in Montreal, the leaves continue to tumble from the trees in rapid fashion. This is to be expected in late October, and will only increase with the strong winds forecast for the St. Lawrence Valley over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase from the southwest today in advance of  cold front, gusting to 40km/h. They will back to the northwest on Thursday, gusting up to 60km/h. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Our spectacular second summer weather continues Wednesday across southern Quebec, with temperatures set to break another record for the date. The high is expected to reach 24C (76F) in Montreal, which will be enough to surpass the previous record of 21.5C (71F) established in 2012. This will continue the streak of sunny, warm days that have been in place since Saturday. The weather will be humid today as well, with a humidex reading approaching 29C (85F) this afternoon.

On Tuesday, the high at Trudeau Airport was an amazing 24.6C (77F), easily surpassing the record of 23.9C set in 1963. The St. Lawrence Valley has been sandwiched between weather systems all week, with a coastal low producing rain and fog southeast of our region, and a strong fall storm over the western Great Lakes. We have been treated to an extended period of sunny, warm days, and mild overnight temperatures. The low in Montreal Tuesday night was warmer than our average daytime highs for late October. The low Wednesday morning only dropped to 14.2C (56F) on Ile Perrot, well above the average low of 0C (32F).

While cooler weather is on the way for Thursday and the upcoming weekend, warmer temperatures are expected to return early next week. A cold front will sweep across southern Quebec this evening, accompanied by showers and gusty southwest winds. A second cold front will usher in chilly temperatures and 60km/h northwest winds on Thursday. Today's record warmth will be replaced by overnight lows near 6C (43F) in Montreal. The high on Thursday is forecast to be only 10C (50F).

At this time the weekend looks great with dry conditions and mild temperatures. Halloween looks mild, but with the chance of some showers.

There is no sign of any really cold temperatures or snowfall for southwestern Quebec at this time. The extended forecast through the first two weeks of November is for above-normal temperatures to persist.

Spectacular October weather across southern Quebec

The weather was absolutely spectacular this weekend across southern Quebec. High temperatures surged into the low 20s with bright sunshine. Meanwhile winter arrived across western Canada. (ValleyWeather)

Our fall heatwave continues on Monday across southern Quebec and Ontario after a perfect weather weekend. The temperature rose into the low 20s across many regions of Quebec, with 10 daily record highs set on Sunday alone. While no records were broken here in Montreal, the high temperatures were still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late October. The high Saturday reached 21.8C (70F) at Trudeau Airport, with 23C (73F) on Ile Perrot. Sunday was just a touch cooler at 20.8C (69F) as clouds began to stream in from the south.

Both days were perfect for any outdoor activity, and many took advantage of the ideal weather to rake leaves and winterize homes and cars. The winter weather will arrive eventually, but not this week that is for certain.

Low pressure moving along the eastern Seaboard Monday will push clouds and showers into portions of southeastern Quebec, with just a slight chance for a sprinkle or two in Montreal. Otherwise expect hazy sunshine, with another warm high near 20C (68F). Tuesday will be fair and warm as well, reaching 23C (73F), with Wednesday's high in Montreal forecast to reach a record-breaking 24C (76F). The current record for Wednesday stands at 21.5C (72F) set in 2012. Overnight lows will be mild as well, around 8C (43F). Expect some fog to form in the valley locations each morning. The normal high/low for late October is 10C (50F) and 1C (33F) respectively.

Above, traffic crawls along Highway 1 near Qu'Appelle, Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon. Heavy wet snow blasted the southern part of that province on Sunday, resulting in numerous accidents, closed highways and widespread power outages. Many residents remain in the dark and cold early Monday morning, as SaskPower dispatches crews to hard hit locations south of the Trans Canada Highway towards the US border. The utility is not reporting on the number of customers without power, but many regions are listed on the outage page from Regina to Moose jaw and points south. (CBC News)

Western Snowstorm

While southern Quebec and Ontario were unseasonable warm this weekend a strong fall storm was skirting across northern Montana and North Dakota. The broad circulation of the storm pulled down very cold air on the backside of the system changing rain to heavy wet snow across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Between 15 and 23cm of snow fell in Calgary Saturday before the snow moved east. On Sunday heavy snow and strong winds created impossible travel conditions along the Trans Canada Highway in Saskatchewan. Numerous accidents and road closures were reported, along with scattered power outages. Visibility was often below 1 kilometre in snow and blowing snow between Swift Current and Regina, and points south. The RCMP and Moose Jaw Police were forced to close highways in and out of that city for the afternoon and evening hours after 10-20cm of snow fell, whipped by 50-70km/h winds.

In southern Manitoba, heavy rain and thunderstorms are occurring early Monday on the warm side of the storm. Temperatures are forecast to drop later today as the storm lifts into northwest Ontario. Strong winds continue across both provinces, gusting up to 90km/h at times.

First snow of the season over the Great Lakes but none for Montreal

Heavy wet snow off the Great Lakes, blanketed parts of upper Michigan this week. The same weather system pushed frost and freezing temperatures all the way south to the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures were chilly in Montreal, but nothing out of the ordinary, as the coldest air remained west of our region. (Photo Tony Greene via ABC News)

The first snowflakes of the season were in the air over northern portions of Ontario and especially around the Great Lakes on Tuesday, including Chicago, a stark reminder that winter weather is not far off. Heavy wet snow fell across portions of northern Michigan, with over 40cm at Ironwood. The snow created very poor travel conditions and weighed down tree branches onto power lines, knocking out power to thousands. Early snow also occurred in Illinois and northern Indiana.

The snow was part of a large upper level low spinning over the central portion of the lakes, while slowly moving southeast. A cold pool of air aloft was driven down to the surface, with frost and freeze conditions as far south as the Gulf Coast. The unseasonably cold air will be brief in nature as a warming trend is expected into the upcoming weekend. Accompanying the cold air was very gusty northerly winds, up to 90km/h at times off Lake Superior and Huron. The worst of the weather has remined west of Quebec, mainly in Ontario and the Midwest.

For the short-term however, cool, blustery weather will persist. Montreal remains on the edge of the coldest air, with temperatures expected around 10C (50F) for highs. Lows have been chilly, very close to the freezing point, with scattered frost observed. Clouds are on the increase early Wednesday morning as the cold, moist airmass moves over southern Quebec. Expect isolated showers through Thursday, along with a chilly northwest wind.

Some flurries are still possible, mainly over the Adirondacks of New York and perhaps the highest elevations of the Eastern Townships. The broad circulation of the same low has been drawing in deep moisture off the Atlantic Ocean into portions of eastern Quebec. Heavy rain has been reported, with 50 to 75mm (2-3 inches) reported in parts of the Saguenay and Charlevoix regions over the last 24 hours.

Once this system clears southern Quebec on Friday, high pressure will build in for the upcoming weekend, with sunshine and well above normal temperatures expected. Look for highs to rise into the upper teens in Montreal, with lows around 8C. The normal high/low for mid-October in Montreal, is 11C/2C.

Wet and windy storm to impact southern Quebec

The fall foliage is beginning to peak in the St. Lawrence Valley. The weather this week has been nearly perfect for getting out and enjoying the spectacular colours. That is about to change as windy and wet weather arrives on Thursday. Very cold air will move into our region by next Tuesday, with a few snowflakes possible in many regions. (Valley Weather Photo)

Heavy Rainfall Warning in effect for Montreal

The first significant fall storm of the season is advancing across central Ontario early Thursday, expected to pass well north of Montreal. The cyclone will sweep a strong cold front across the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening. In advance of the front, strong and gusty south winds will develop in Montreal Thursday, gusting up to 60km/h at times. The front will also be accompanied by a wide area of heavy rainfall, expected to start this afternoon in Montreal, and persist into the overnight hours. 

Rainfall amounts of 25 to 50mm are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley, with upwards of 70mm north and east of the city. Some minor flooding may occur, especially where gutters and catch basins are clogged with fallen leaves. Heavy rainfall warning are in effect for most of southern and western Quebec.

As the fall weather patterns become established across Canada, mid-latitude storms become much stronger. This is a result of the large temperature and pressure differences that exist with the changing seasons. An example Thursday morning, we have snow falling across southern Manitoba, with temperatures near 0C, while in southern Quebec, temperatures are already in the upper teens, expected to reach near 21C (70F) along the US border.

The deepening storm system in question will move across northern Quebec tonight, while high pressure builds into the region for Friday and Saturday. Unsettled and much colder weather will return next week, with the chance for more showers along with dropping temperatures. Some parts of eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and New England will see a few snowflakes by next Wednesday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, Thursday will be very mild before the rain begins, pushing close to the 20C (68F) mark here in Montreal. Temperatures will be a little cooler for Friday and Saturday, around 16C (60F). Early next week, high temperatures will drop below normal, into the single digits, with lows near the freezing point.

Warm Thursday followed by chilly Thanksgiving weekend

The first frost of the season occurred on Monday, October 3 here on Ile Perrot, well ahead of the average date I've observed over the last ten years. (ValleyWeather Photo)

The first frost occurred this week on Ile Perrot, well ahead of the average date of the last few years, which fell either side of October 21st, and was actually October 29th last fall. Temperatures dropped to between 1C and 3C on several mornings this week in the Montreal region. The growing season does continue however, as freezing temperatures were confined to off-island locations. The temperature was much warmer on Thursday morning, as winds have turned out of the southwest setting us up for a spectacular day.

Thursday will be a good a day as you can expect in October in southern Quebec, with likely the warmest high temperatures until next spring. Expect sunshine through increasing clouds, with a high near 23C (73F). A strong cold front arrives early Friday, accompanied by showers, northwest winds and dropping temperatures. Highs will be reached early Friday, before dropping into the single digits and eventually a low of 1C (33F) by Saturday morning. The weekend will be chilly, with highs around 12C (54F), sunshine Saturday and some showers Sunday. Skies will clear for Thanksgiving Day, with a pleasant high of 13C (55F). 

The fall foliage is reaching near peak levels in the mountains north and south of Montreal, with the colours starting to increase here in the St. Lawrence Valley.

The weather next week looks rather mild, with temperatures swinging back above the normal high of 14C and low of 5C. High pressure will build into southern Quebec once again, with sunshine forecast through Wednesday.

The death toll in Florida from hurricane Ian has exceeded 125. The remains of Ian have been located off the mid-Atlantic coast all week, resulting in more coastal flooding and damage. (Orange County Fire & Rescue Photo)

Atlantic Hurricane Season

Communities continue to rebuild after the devastating impacts of hurricanes Fiona and Ian. In Canada, Prime Minster Trudeau has promised $300 million in relief to help struggling residents rebuild across eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

In Florida, the death toll has surpassed 125 from hurricane Ian, with damage expected to soar to over 1 billion dollars. Five additional fatalities occurred in North Carolina. Fort Myers and the surrounding area experienced catastrophic damage from Ian on Wednesday, September 28. The category four storm made landfall along the Gulf Coast near Fort Myers. Infrastructure and homes have been leveled, and power remains out to over 250,000 residents in the sunshine state. In many areas, a complete rebuild will be necessary. Lee and Charlotte counties have been especially hard-hit, with many of the fatalities occurring on Sanibel Island and at Fort Myers Beach.

The remains of Ian have been spinning off the middle Atlantic coast all week, producing additional flooding and damage from New Jersey to North Carolina.

Over 2.5 million in the dark after Ian sweeps across Florida

The Naples Fire Department was inundated with storm surge from Hurricane Ian on Wednesday. (Photo: Naples Fire Department via Twitter)

Extremely powerful and dangerous Ian has been downgraded to a tropical storm Thursday morning, with 100km/h winds and a ton or rainfall. Ian made landfall at 3:05pm Wednesday, near Cayo Costa, Florida, with 225km/h winds and a record setting storm surge that exceeded 12 feet (3.5 metres) in places. The surge wiped out large sections of the coastline to the south of the point of landfall, including Fort Myers Beach, Naples and Sanibel Island.

While mandatory evacuations were in place, many chose not to leave, becoming trapped in homes that were coming apart in the rapidly rising storm surge as the Gulf waters were driven inland by the powerful hurricane. Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno expects fatalities, and "they may run into the hundreds," according to him.

The storm has caused catastrophic destruction along the coast. As the system moved inland, fresh water flooding became the problem, with up to 300mm of rainfall, falling in just a six hour period from Sarasota northeast to Orlando and east into Daytona Beach.

Aside from structural damage and scores of trees down, thousands of power poles and lines were torn apart leaving over 2.5 million people in the dark across the state. 

The center of tropical storm Ian was located 15km west of Cape Canaveral, Florida early Thursday, with 100km/h winds, moving northeast at 13km/h. As the storm moves back over the Atlantic Ocean today, some intensification is expected before a second landfall along the South Carolina coast on Friday. More surge fooding is expected along the southeastern US coast, along with flash flooding well inland into North Carolina and Virginia. Widespread weather warnings are in effect.

Strong high pressure in place over Quebec, will keep Ian well south of our region, forcing the storm off the middle Atlantic coast near Delaware by the end of the weekend. The system may impact eastern Newfoundland early next week.

Catastrophic hurricane Ian making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast

A NOAA satellite image of powerful hurricane Ian, located 90km west of Naples, Florida on Wednesday morning. Ian has strengthened rapidly overnight, to almost category 5 level, now with 155mph (250km/h) winds. The storm is expected to have devastating effects along the southwest Florida coast today.

Hurricane Ian has grown into a massive Category 4 hurricane early Wednesday morning, just 90km west of Naples, Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. Over the last two hours the storm has strengthened rapidly and is on the verge of a category 5 storm. Current winds are at an incredible 155mph (250km/h) as the storm moves north-northeast at 17km/h. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect along the west coast of Florida, and extending up the Atlantic Coast from Miami to South Carolina.

Landfall should occur sometime this morning, between Cape Coral and Sarasota on Florida's Gulf Coast. South Florida has been experiencing terrible weather over the last 24 hours as feeder bands swept across south Florida from the Atlantic to the Gulf. A total of nine tornadoes were reported on Tuesday alone, more are expected today as Ian interacts with the land.

In Key West, winds gusted to 97mph on Tuesday, along with storm surge flooding. Power outages across the state have grown steadily Wednesday morning to over 140,000 customers, with Ian still offshore. The storm will take a diagonal path across the state emerging into the western Atlantic on Thursday, before a second landfall in Georgia.

Across the southwest Florida coast today, catastrophic conditions are expected near landfall, with severe wind damage power outages, flooding and an intense storm surge. The surge is forecast to inundate the coast with 12 to 18 feet of sea water between Englewood and Bonita Beach, including Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda.

Ian's path was expected to be anywhere from the panhandle to Fort Myers, with Tampa looking like the bullseye. That has changed today, with a much stronger storm expected to move inland south of Tampa Bay. Dangerous weather conditions will be felt across the state today as Ian moves inland from the Gulf to near Orlando and eventually Jacksonville on the Atlantic Coast.

Heavy rain, flooding and tornadoes will spread into southern Georgia on Thursday.

The cleanup continues from Fiona across Atlantic Canada while Ian heads for Florida

Hurricane Fiona produced a record-breaking storm surge of 2.75 metres (9 feet) at Port aux Basques, Newfoundland resulting in widespread damage. It was here that Fiona claimed one of two Canadian fatalities, after a woman was swept out to sea. (Wreckhouse Press)

Nova Scotia Power along with crews from Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick and Maine, continue the daunting task of restoring power across Atlantic Canada. As of Tuesday afternoon, over 129,000 customers remain in the dark in Nova Scotia alone. Crews have been working 24/7 since Saturday. The Canadian Military is on the ground as well assisting with the cleanup efforts after Fiona swept across the region on Saturday. The storm claimed one life in Port aux Basques, Newfoundland, after a woman was swept out to sea. Her body has since been recovered by the Canadian Coast Guard. A second death was reported in Prince Edward Island. Damage was widespread from fierce winds, heavy rain and a record-breaking storm surge.

Fiona produced the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on Canadian soil, 932.7mb at Hart Island. The storm made landfall in Nova Scotia at 4am Saturday, September 24, near Whitehead, 28km southwest of Canso, Nova Scotia.

Nova Scotia Power utility crews work through a maze of wires, trees and poles in the aftermath of Hurricane Fiona. Over half the province was left in the dark after the storm. (Nova Scotia Power Photo)

Some of the strongest winds and heaviest rain were recorded on the eastern side of where Fiona made landfall. The surge at Port aux Basques reached 2.75 metres (9 feet), the highest ever recorded along that coastline. Homes and infrastructure were crushed by the rising water and intense wave action accompanying the surge. Winds gusted over 200km/h on Sable Island, 179km/h at Arisaig, NS, 177km/h at Wreckhouse, Newfoundland and 126km/h in Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Quebec. Major damage from wind and surge was also reported in Prince Edward Island, where gusts up to 150km/h were observed. Maritime Electric on PEI is still reporting over 61,000 customers without power.

The region has a long recovery ahead, if you can help, the Canadian Government has announced that they will double any donations to the Red Cross made over the next 30 days. You can make your donation at www.redcross.ca

NOAA image of extremely dangerous hurricane Ian over western Cuba on Tuesday morning. (WMO)  

Hurricane Ian

Hurricane Ian is currently moving off the north coast of Cuba after punishing the area with 125mph (225km/h) winds and a 14 foot storm surge overnight. Ian is now taking aim at the west coast of Florida where hurricane warnings have been hoisted. Mandatory evacuations are underway across numerous coastal counties along the west-central Florida coast including parts of the Tampa Bay area.

The weather is already worsening in the Florida Keys and across the southern portion of the state.

At 2pm Tuesday afternoon, the strengthening category 3 storm was located 430km south of Sarasota, Florida. Ian is forecast to deepen further into a dangerous category four storm with winds approaching 140mph and a surge of over 10 feet before landfall. The hurricane should approach the Florida coast near Tampa Bay by late in the day Wednesday, before slowly crossing the state. Heavy rain, up to 24 inches (600mm), is expected to produce widespread flooding. Tampa has not has a direct hit from a hurricane in over 100 years. I will publish more on hurricane Ian later today in separate posts.

Hurricane Fiona slams into Atlantic Canada

Thousands of trees are down in Atlantic Canada after Fiona moved across the region early Saturday morning. Power is out to hundreds of thousands of residents. (Charlottetown Police)

 According to Canadian Hurricane Centre Meteorologist Bob Robichaud, Fiona was going to be an "historic extreme event." Fiona is living up to expectations early Saturday morning as the powerful post-tropical cyclone moves across Cape Breton Island and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. 

A spectacular image of Hurricane Fiona moving across Cape Breton Island and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence early Saturday morning. The storm produced the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on Canadian soil, at 931.6mb. (NOAA)

Fiona made landfall at 4AM AST near Hart Island, between Canso and Guysborough in northern Nova Scotia. A new Canadian record for the lowest barometric pressure in our country, was established shortly after landfall at a weather station on Hart Island, at  931.6mb. Winds have been relentless, gusting between 100 and 150km/h in many locations since late Friday evening, with a peak gust of 202km/h (125mph) reported on Sable Island overnight.

A Halifax neighborhood ransacked by Fiona overnight. (CBC)

There has been widespread damage reported, with hundreds of trees down, many on homes and vehicles. Wires are everywhere according to Charlottetown, PEI police, who are responding to emergency calls only, on one of the "worst nights they have ever seen". Travel is extremely dangerous if not impossible across Nova Scotia.

The only silver lining so far that I can see, is that the storm is moving very quickly, which in the end, may cut down on rainfall and flooding in many locations. Forecasters were expecting 75mm to as much as 250mm of rain with Fiona. That being said, 65mm fell in Halifax already through midnight. We will need to wait until later today for more rainfall data.

In terms of power outages, Nova Scotia Power is reporting 405,000 customers in the dark, Prince Edward Island 82,000, New Brunswick Power 46,000 and Hydro-Quebec 6000. That number is changing by the minute. With winds still howling over 100km/ in Halifax for the last 6 hours, the task to repair the power grid will be daunting until the weather eases. Nova Scotia Power had staged crews in advance of Fiona, with help already in place from New Brunswick, Quebec and Maine.

Early Saturday morning, the center of Fiona was located 255 kilometres northeast of Halifax, moving north at 43km/h. The storm maintained 150km/h winds. The center will move across Nova Scotia early Saturday morning and eventually into eastern Quebec and Labrador later today.

Dangerous hurricane Fiona expected to make a direct hit on Nova Scotia

Powerful category 4 hurricane Fiona southwest of Bermuda early Thursday morning. (NOAA)

Hurricane Fiona continues her northward march in the open waters of the Atlantic on Thursday morning, located 780km southwest of Bermuda and 2010km south southwest of Halifax. A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda, with the system expected to brush the island later today. Fiona has already produced significant damage and power outages in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos. The entire power grid collapsed in Puerto Rico, with over 300mm of rain producing catastrophic flash flooding, and claiming at least 5 lives. 

Hurricane Fiona dumped 300mm of rain on Puerto Rico generating catastrophic flash flooding and claiming at least five lives so far. The US territory was left in the dark as the power grid collapsed. (AccuWeather/AP)

Our attention will then quickly turn to Atlantic Canada, where significant impacts are expected from Fiona, including but not limited to flash flooding, widespread power outages and structural damage from strong winds. Warnings for portions Atlantic Canada will likely be issued on Thursday. Wind and seas will be increasing rapidly Friday across Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec ahead of a potential landfall early Saturday morning in Nova Scotia.

The forecast track of hurricane Fiona as the powerful storm moves north towards Atlantic Canada. (Canadian Hurricane Centre) 

Fiona is a category 4 hurricane currently, with 215km/h (130 mph) winds. The storm is moving north, northeast at 20km/h, but is expected to slow down as she turns to the north on Friday. Forecasters believe Fiona will approach Nova Scotia at a rare angle, making a direct impact near Cape Breton before moving into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. As far a strength goes, while Fiona will be weakening and undergoing transition to an extra tropical low,  she will remain a powerful storm with category two wind speeds expected in excess of 150km/h in gusts. The wind field will also be expanding, impacting a wide region from western Newfoundland to the Gaspe region of Quebec.

Rainfall will be significant with up to 250mm possible in the hardest hit regions. Storm surge flooding will also occur, especially to the east of landfall. Later the flooding will come from the backside of Fiona, impacting the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and eastern Quebec.

This is a preliminary report on the Fiona's Canadian impacts. I will post updates through the storm.

Another round of heavy rain for southern Quebec

Windswept rain greeted many on the commute home last Tuesday, September 13. The heavy rain produced flash flooding in many sections of Montreal, but especially in the east end suburbs. More heavy rain is expected this week, with up to 50mm possible by Tuesday. (ValleyWeather Photo)

A potent frontal boundary will become the focus for steady rainfall, showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 36 hours across southern Quebec. Rainfall amounts will approach 50mm (2 inches) in many locations, including Montreal by Tuesday morning. Isolated amounts may approach 75mm south of the St. Lawrence Valley towards the international border. The heavy rain will create ponding of water on roadways and some flash flooding. Leaves are beginning to fall so roads may be slick in spots.

Showers will persist through Thursday as low pressure develops in the Ottawa Valley and moves east. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals, with highs near 18C (65F) and lows around 12C (54F). Much colder air will arrive by late Thursday as a strong cold front moves across the region. By Friday, daytime highs will be in the low teens with overnight lows in the lower single digits. Some regions away from metro Montreal may even be looking at the first frost of the season by Saturday morning.

The torrential rain rapidly filled many roadways last Tuesday, with over 100mm (4 inches) falling in many sections of the city, including Rosemount shown above. (CBC Photo via Twitter)

The precipitation comes on the heels of Tuesdays major rainstorm in the Montreal region and points east. Rounds of training showers and thunderstorms over a 1 to 3 hour period on September 13, produced flash flooding from downtown Montreal, especially the eastern suburbs, and onto the South Shore.  I measured only 20 to 25mm here on Ile Perrot, while Trudeau Airport had 27mm. But it was downtown Montreal and points east that took the brunt of the storm. According to Environment Canada, downtown Montreal averaged 80 to 110mm of rain, including 40mm in a one hour period. RDP and Repentigny reported 70 to 100mm, while Longueil had 125mm and Joliette 100 to 120mm, including 90mm in under two hours. The result was major flash flooding that flooded basements, underpasses, closed highways and inundated several metro stations. Thankfully no injuries were reported.

NOAA Satellite image of strengthening hurricane Fiona just south of Puerto Rico midday Sunday, September 18.

Hurricane Fiona

As I write this post, Fiona has just reached hurricane status 80km south of Ponce, Puerto Rico. The storm has 130km/h winds and is moving west-northwest at 13km/h. Warnings are in effect across the Virgin Island, Puerto Rico and neighboring Dominican Republic. Heavy rain, up to 300mm, is expected to produce major flooding and mudslides. Winds have already been reported up to 120km/h across the US territory. The power grid is notoriously bad, and outages have already reached a half million on the island. Fiona is expected to curve northwestward and eventually northeast along the outer edge of the Bermuda high while strengthening into a major hurricane. The storm may generate some weather in Atlantic Canada by late next week, but details will need to be fine-tuned.

**Just a final note, I apologize for the lack of posts lately, I have been a little "under the weather", pardon the pun. Thanks for reading and stay safe everyone...SB

Superb late summer weather expected for Montreal

A flash of lightning turns night into day on Ile Perrot late last Tuesday evening. As with most thunderstorms this summer in Montreal, its bark was worse than its bite. Many storms have been weakening before hitting the city or slipping by to our north and south. Last week several strong storms impacted the Ottawa Valley with hail and even a tornado. The storms looked menacing, but dissipated west of the city. (ValleyWeather Photo)

If you love summer weather, than you'll love this forecast! After a cool start to September, summer temperatures are set to make a return to southern Quebec. High pressure will build into the region and move slowly east through the upcoming weekend. The result will be sunshine with warming temperatures. The highs will be in the upper 20s in Montreal through Sunday, with lows in the middle teens. The next chance for any precipitation will not arrive before next Monday.

Montreal continues to be rather dry this month as compared to neighbouring portions of southern Quebec and Ontario as well as New York and New England. So far in September, only 3mm of rain has fallen at Trudeau Airport. Most regions outside the metro Montreal area have received considerably more rain. It has been a very odd summer all around, with many thunderstorms splitting the city to the south and north and missing Montreal or weakening considerably before hitting the city. 

Large portions of North America have been experiencing warm temperatures, including searing heat across the southwestern US stretching northward into the southern Prairies. On Tuesday, Sacramento, California reached an all-time record high of 46.7C (116F), breaking the previous record of 114F set in July 1925. Temperatures soared into the middle 30s (90s) as far north as southern Saskatchewan.

A NOAA Satellite image of Hurricane Earl on Wednesday, located 705km south of Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Earl may impact the waters east of Newfoundland by late in the weekend with heavy surf. (NWS/NOAA)

Tropics become active

It has been a very quite Atlantic tropical season to date, but that may be changing. On Wednesday, a tropical storm warning was posted for Bermuda, as hurricane Earl swirled in the open waters of the Atlantic, 705 km south of the island nation. Winds in Earl have increased to 85km/h and further strengthening is expected into Thursday. Earl is expected to become a major hurricane as the storm passes southeast of Bermuda. Earl is generating huge swells along the east coast, with coastal flood advisories in place for sections of the middle Atlantic states. Earl may impact the coastal waters of Atlantic Canada late this upcoming weekend.

Along the west coast, a rare northward moving hurricane is impacting portions of Baja California as far north as the US border. Hurricane Kay, with 165km/h winds, was located Wednesday afternoon 340km/h south of Baja, Mexico. Kay is expected to gradually turn northwest out to sea, but not before pushing some much needed rain into southern California and Arizona.