Dreary and wet Halloween expected in Montreal

Several vehicles spun off Highway 401 near Mallorytown, Ontario on Saturday afternoon. The weekend storm produced widespread wet snow and rain across southern Ontario and Quebec. (Ontario Provincial Police Photo)

Sunshine has been at a premium these days across southern Quebec. Over the weekend, low pressure moving up the east coast, produced the first widespread snowfall of the season for many portions of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. In Montreal, 3 to as much as 5cm of very wet snow fell on the metro area, with most of it melting on contact. North of the city and towards Quebec City, some of the white stuff remained on the ground. West of Montreal, snowfall was thicker with 5 to 10cm falling in eastern Ontario. Roads were very poor in sections of the province as well as along Highway 401 and 416 in Ontario. Numerous accidents were reported as unprepared driver failed to adjust their speed in the snowy conditions.

The storm also produced strong winds, gusting over 50km/h in Montreal, and as high as 100km/h along the St. Lawrence River near Quebec City. The weather was responsible for numerous power outages in the province. Along the US east coast, heavy rain and pounding surf produced flooding in many locations including New England, Long Island and New Jersey.

Wet Halloween in Montreal
The weather remains damp and chilly on Tuesday, with temperatures struggling to clear 5C (41F) in Montreal. The normal high should be 9C (49F) for late October. The balance of the week will be dreary and cool with plenty of rain at times. The best day of the week will be Tuesday, where a few breaks in the cloud cover may occur. By Halloween, another frontal system will cross the region with steady rain from late afternoon into the evening hours. Expect a cool, wet Halloween night, with temperatures around 4C (39F). I am trying to squeeze out a window of opportunity for trick or treating in Montreal, but sadly at this time, it looks wet. On Thursday, more clouds and showers are expected, with slightly milder high temperatures, perhaps 10C (50F). Another area of low pressure is forecast to bring steady rain on Friday, with as much as 25mm falling across the region. We may finally see some clearing by the second half of the weekend. Briefly looking ahead into early November, the stormy pattern is expected to continue, but with slightly milder temperatures.

Nor'Easter to bring rain and snow to southern Quebec

A developing coastal storm will bring a mix of rain and snow, along with strong winds to southern Quebec this weekend. Most of the precipitation should fall as rain in Montreal, but a messy mix may fall north and west of the city. (AccuWaether.com)

A developing nor'easter is forecast to move from coastal North Carolina towards southern New England on Saturday. The storm is forecast to strengthen while pushing moisture northward into southern Quebec by Saturday morning.  Temperature profiles suggest a mix of snow and rain here in the St. Lawrence Valley, with any accumulations confined to the higher elevations. A cold northeast wind is expected, gusting up to 50km/h, keeping the cold air in place in Montreal. At this time, the best chance for accumulating snow would lkely be overnight Saturday. The precipitation should last most of the weekend, with the potential for more than 25mm of rain and perhaps several centimetres of snow for some. The storm should lift northeast across New England on Sunday, with slowly improving conditions by late in the day.

Low pressure surprised many parts of northern New England, the Gaspe and New Brunswick, with the first major snowfall of the season on Wednesday. Over 30cm of snow fell on Mount Washington, New Hampshire, with 15 to 25cm falling in the Gaspe peninsula. (Maine Forest Rangers photo)

On Thursday, Montreal experienced a cold, breezy day, with the temperature only reaching 2C (36F). Partly cloudy skies along with diminishing winds, should allow the temperature to drop well below freezing in southern Quebec by Friday morning. A thick frost or freeze is likely. Friday will be the best day in the foreseeable future, with sunshine and high temperature near 6C (43F).

Active weather pattern expected for southern Quebec

The remains of hurricane Willa located in the Pacific Ocean, may eventually re-develop into a potent coastal storm along the eastern seaboard by the upcoming weekend. The potential exists for some locations to receive heavy amounts of rain or snow, along with very strong winds. (AccuWeather.com)

Many locations in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario reported the first snowflakes of the season on Sunday along with very cold temperatures. An unseasonably chilly air mass, combined with gusty winds, made it feel downright wintry at times to end the weekend. On Monday morning, I recorded the coldest temperature so far this fall, with -2C (28F) at my home on L'Ile Perrot. Some sunshine and light winds allowed the temperature to reach 6C (43) by the afternoon, but this is still well below the normal high of 11C (52F) for todays date. Clouds have since moved in, with showers expected tonight.

It is likely time to start thinking about getting those winter tires on. CAA Quebec recommends winter tires not only for snow, but also at temperatures colder than 7C (45F).

Potential winter storms

It may be time to consider putting on those winter tires, as the first measurable snow of the season may be in our immediate future. An unsettled and stormy weather pattern is expected to unfold across the eastern portion of North America over the next week. Cold air will remain in place across the region, along with a very active storm track. The first system is expected to move from the Great Lakes into Maine by Wednesday morning, accompanied by rain and snow. The snow may be heavy at times, especially over northern Maine, the Gaspe Peninsula and portions of New Brunswick. The snow may extend into the Eastern Townships of Quebec as well as northern Vermont.

The potential exists for an even stronger storm to impact the eastern seaboard, southern Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. The storm is expected to develop from the remains of Willa, a powerful category 5 hurricane currently forecast to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico. The storm is forecast to move inland across Mexico and along the Gulf Coast this week. Some models have the system re-developing into a major Nor'Easter while moving up the east coast by Sunday. There are a ton of details to iron out, but it is worth noting that for some of us, we may see the first snow of the season. As always with Nor'easters, the proximity to the coast will in the end determine how much snow or rain Montreal receives, if any. 

Until then, expect showers and below normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by fair but cold weather to end the work week. Temperatures will remain below normal in Montreal, with forecast daytime highs between 5 and 9C (41 to 49F) and overnight lows of -4 to 0C (25 to 32F). A killing frost is likely in Montreal on both Thursday and Friday morning.

The end of the growing season expected across Southern Quebec tonight

The sun breaks through the clouds in Montreal on Wednesday morning. The weather pattern has shifted in Canada, with much colder air now moving into the eastern portion of the country. After a very warm fall to date in Montreal, conditions will be turning more seasonable to end October, and even a little wintry at times. (ValleyWeather Photo)

A frost advisory is in effect for Southern Quebec tonight, including metro Montreal. A cold front crossed the region on Wednesday, to be followed by the coldest air mass of the season. Overnight lows across southern Quebec and eastern Ontario will drop into the 0C to -5C (23 to 32F) range. A hard freeze is expected in many locations, which should end the growing season for most of us. Gusty west winds up to 50km/h will make it feel even colder tonight and early Thursday. A few showers or flurries are possible into the late afternoon and evening hours. South of the border across the Adirondacks of New York and the Green Mountains of Vermont, an inch or two of snow is possible tonight. Some lake effect snow is also forecast for the snowbelt off Lake Huron tonight.

It took some time for fall to arrive in southern Quebec, but it certainly looks and feels like it now. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Thursday will be blustery and cold, with daytime high temperatures remaining below 5C (41F) in Montreal, and near the freezing point across the upper elevations of the Eastern Townships and Laurentians. Late in the day Thursday, clouds will thicken up in Montreal as a warm front approaches the region. A fews showers are possible into Friday morning, along with much milder temperatures. The high Friday will be 12C (54F). We will repeat the cycle this weekend as another cold front moves into Quebec. The last two weeks of October are looking unsettled and cold, with several opportunities for our first snowflakes of the season here in Montreal.

Historic hurricane Michael slams Florida panhandle

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida on Wednesday afternoon. The powerful hurricane caused widespread catastrophic damage along the coast where landfall occurred. A peak wind gust of 130 mph was observed at Tyndall Air Force Base before the anemometer broke. At least two deaths have been blamed on the storm. Photo via Twitter @WVTM13

Hurricane Michael, the strongest October hurricane on record, rapidly moved inland near Mexico Beach, Florida at 1pm on Wednesday afternoon. The powerful storm was just a notch under a category 5 hurricane at landfall, with winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 919 mb. Michael becomes the strongest October hurricane on record to hit the US since Hazel in 1954. Only one other storm was this strong at landfall in Florida, hurricane Andrew in 1992.

The results of the storm were devastating, with the only saving grace being how fast Michael raced through Florida. Michael is located 30 miles west of Augusta, Georgia Thursday morning, with 50mph winds. The hurricane leaves behind a heavily damaged Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach on the Florida Gulf Coast. Thousands of buildings were damaged or destroyed, with trees and power lines down everywhere. A storm surge of nearly 15 feet flooded most of Mexico Beach. Boats are strewn across coastal highways or submerged at there moorings. Power is out to over 700,000 customers in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina this morning.

Now tropical storm Michael is forecast to move across the Carolina's today and off the Virginia coast Friday. Strong winds, coastal flooding and 5 to 10 inches (125-250 mm) of rain are possible along the track of the storm. Michael is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm as it moves across the coastal waters of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. At this time, most of the weather associated with the storm should remain offshore of the Maritimes.

Backdoor cold front for Montreal
In Montreal, Wednesday turned out to be a very odd weather day. The morning started off very warm and muggy, with a near-record high of 22C (72F). However a backdoor cold front, named for the "wrong" direction it moves in, from east to west, crossed the city by 9am. The front rapidly dropped the temperature in Montreal from 22 (72F) to 12C (54F) in less than one hour. The temperature remained there for the balance of the day, along with showers, gusty cold northeast winds and low clouds. Meanwhile just to our immediate south and west, temperatures soared into the upper 20s. This included a record high of 27.5C (82F) in Ottawa, smashing the old record of 23.9C (74F) set in 1955.

The summer-like weather will become history today, as a potent cold front moves across southern Quebec. Showers are forecast today, along with gusty northwest winds of 30 to 50km/h. The high temperature should reach 18C (65F) before cooling off late today. On Friday, expect clearing skies, windy conditions and a high near 11C (52F).  The weekend should be partly cloudy, but feeling like fall, with high temperatures near 12C (54F) and overnight lows near the freezing point in many locations.

Powerful hurricane Michael heads for Florida - record heat in Montreal

NOAA image of hurricane Michael early Wednesday morning. The powerful category 4 hurricane is located 140 miles south of Panama City, Florida.

Warm and humid air has dominated the last 24 hours across southern Ontario and Quebec, including a record high for Montreal. The 50 year old record fell Tuesday afternoon, as the temperature reached 26.8C (80F), crushing the 1958 record of 25C (77F). High humidity made is feel like the low 30s as tropical air surged northward. Conditions remained very mild and muggy overnight, with the low temperature our current reading of 20C (68F). A cold front will slowly sag south this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today, along with slowly falling temperatures. Much cold air will arrive Thursday as as stronger cold front crosses the St. Lawrence Valley.

Hurricane Michael
Powerful hurricane Michael is heading for the Florida panhandle this morning. The category 4 hurricane, with winds of 140mph (220km/h), is expected to make landfall near Panama City Beach, Florida by midday Wednesday. Millions of residents have been ordered to evacuate the coast in advance of the storm. Even in a state with a rich hurricane history such as Florida, this storm is historic. No category 4 hurricane has ever hit the Florida panhandle. Michael is located 140 miles south of Panama City early Wednesday morning, moving north at 13mph (20km/h). Widespread warnings are in effect across the Florida Gulf Coast and northward into Georgia and the Carolina's. Heavy rain, strong winds and a catastrophic storm surge in excess of 13 feet are expected along the coast where the center makes landfall. Flooding rains of up to 8 inches are forecast along the path of Michael. Scattered tornadoes are also expected as the storm moves inland. Widespread damage and power outages are anticipated in the Florida panhandle and adjacent Georgia.

Michael is expected to race northeast across the southeast US through Thursday and eventually into the Atlantic Ocean near Virginia Beach. At this time the storm is forecast to brush southern New England this weekend but remain offshore of Atlantic Canada.

Record warmth possible in Montreal on Tuesday

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, here comes hurricane Michael. The storm is forecast to become a strong hurricane as it approaches the Florida coast on Wednesday. While some rain is expected from Michael late this week in southern Quebec, the bulk of the system should remain well to our south. (NHC)

We have a very active weather week ahead for southern Quebec as an epic battle of the seasons gets underway. Low pressure over the central portion of the country, remains the dividing line between unseasonable cold in the west and building warmth in the east. Temperatures are well below freezing in Alberta and Saskatchewan on Thanksgiving morning, with snow falling in many locations.

Meanwhile a strong warm front is expected to lift across southern Ontario and Quebec later today and tonight, with warm and humid air surging into the region. On Tuesday, depending how much sunshine we get, the temperature may reach record levels in Montreal. The record for October 9 is 25C (77F) set in 1958. The forecast high on Tuesday is 26C (79F).  As the warm front moves north today, it will encounter a gusty northeast wind and stubborn cold air at the surface here in southern Quebec. This may slow the warming trend a little, and also deliver some showers and perhaps scattered thunderstorm into Tuesday. The warm air will be with us for at least 48 hours before a strong cold front arrives on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Michael
Complicating the forecast a touch will be the remains of soon-to-be hurricane Michael. Tropical storm Micheal is located about 115km south of the western tip of Cuba early Monday morning, with 110km/h (70 mph) winds. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane today, and approach the Florida panhandle on Wednesday. Micheal is expected to strengthen into as strong hurricane and could produce major impacts along the Florida gulf coast. Once inland, forecasters expect the storm to move into the water-logged Carolina's before approaching southern New England late in the week. Michael will likely send a surge of moisture into the cold front the is expected in southern Quebec on Thursday. We could be looking at very heavy rain and thunderstorms in Montreal. By Friday. much colder air will return to Montreal along with clearing skies and the risk of frost into the weekend.

So keep the shorts, winter coats and umbrellas handy, and prepare yourself for wild, changeable weather this week in the St. Lawrence Valley.

First frost in Montreal followed by a return to warmer weather

A record breaking 38cm of snow fell on Calgary this week, with as much as 60cm near Kananaskis. It was the largest October snowfall in 124 years of record keeping for the city. (CTV News)

The temperature in Montreal is set to fall rapidly late this afternoon and evening as a cold front has cleared southern Quebec. The mercury soared to 24.4C (76F) in Montreal Thursday afternoon, the warmest in the country, but expect it to fall just as quickly after sunset tonight. The wind will soon back to the northwest and gust to 50km/h this evening, ushering in the colder air.

Environment Canada has issued frost advisories across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, with many areas expecting there first sub-zero temperatures of the season. The majority of the frost is expected away from metro regions and bodies of water. Friday will be sunny, crisp and cool, with a daytime high near 12C (54F). On the weekend, we can expect a repeat of the recent cycle of weather events, with sunny skies and warmer temperatures Saturday, followed by rainy, mild weather Sunday and Thanksgiving Monday. High temperatures will be 14C (56F) Saturday, but into the high teens and low 20s Sunday and next week.

More snow west, warmth east
The central part of the country is expected to become the battle line between winter conditions in the west, and warmer, summery weather in the east. Calgary measured 32.8cm of snow on October 2, the snowiest October day dating back to 1884. The previous record of 29.7cm was set on October 4, 1914, The unprecedented storm closed highways, delayed flights at airports and caused hundreds of accidents. Calgary has received help clearing the snow from Red Dear and Edmonton. Lighter snow stretched east into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Northwest Ontario was the dividing line, with heavy rain and strong winds occurring there. The early onset of winter is expected to continue next week, with more cold weather and snow expected from Alberta to Manitoba. Another powerful storm is forecast to develop early next week in the southern Rockies, potentially spreading blizzard conditions into the northern plains and southern Prairies.

East of the storm track across southern Ontario and Quebec, more windy and warm weather is expected. Beyond next week, cooler weather may return to eastern Canada for the balance of October. While it will not be as cold as in western Canada, the temperature should return closer to normal values by late next week, or even slightly below. The normal high/low for Montreal this week should be 15C (59F) and 5C (41F) respectively.

Has fall finally arrived in eastern Canada?

A panda enjoys the record breaking October snowstorm at the Calgary Zoo Tuesday afternoon. (Photo Calgary Zoo).

On cue, October has started off cool and rainy across southern Quebec. Close to 10mm of rain has fallen in Montreal since late Monday. The temperature has remained rather chilly, with low clouds and east winds, reaching only 11C (52F) Tuesday afternoon. Drizzle and clouds are expected to persist into early Wednesday, before sunshine returns. A brief warming trend is expected Thursday, with the high temperature near 23C (73F). Another potent cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late in the day, with cool and dry weather expected to return by Friday.

October in Montreal is expected to start off slightly warmer than normal, before colder air arrives during the second half of the month. The St. Lawrence Valley will act as the dividing line between the seasons, with several strong low pressure systems providing our region with rainy, windy weather. (AccuWeather)

The cool weather comes as quite a shock to the system after the unseasonable warm and humid September we experienced. September continued the trend established this summer, with two pronounced heat waves in Montreal, resulting in an average high of 17.6C, 2 degrees above normal. Trudeau Airport officially recorded two more days at or above 30C (86F), bringing the yearly total to 19. I can say with some certainty that this is where it will remain for the year.

Record Alberta Snow
Very cold weather over western Canada has resulted in several rounds of frost, freezing temperatures and even heavy snow. Some of that cold is eventually expected to make it into eastern Canada for the second half of October. Until then, southern Quebec and Ontario will remain on the boundary between very warm and humid weather along the southeast US coast, and the aforementioned western cold.

The cold weather in Alberta produced record snowfall on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures struggled to make it to the freezing point, along with 25 to 40cm of heavy wet snow. Calgary International Airport reported 20cm of fresh snow as of 11am this morning, with 40cm at Kananaskis. Snowfall warnings remain in effect, with travel not recommended west of Calgary into the foothills.