Record warmth possible in Montreal on Tuesday

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, here comes hurricane Michael. The storm is forecast to become a strong hurricane as it approaches the Florida coast on Wednesday. While some rain is expected from Michael late this week in southern Quebec, the bulk of the system should remain well to our south. (NHC)

We have a very active weather week ahead for southern Quebec as an epic battle of the seasons gets underway. Low pressure over the central portion of the country, remains the dividing line between unseasonable cold in the west and building warmth in the east. Temperatures are well below freezing in Alberta and Saskatchewan on Thanksgiving morning, with snow falling in many locations.

Meanwhile a strong warm front is expected to lift across southern Ontario and Quebec later today and tonight, with warm and humid air surging into the region. On Tuesday, depending how much sunshine we get, the temperature may reach record levels in Montreal. The record for October 9 is 25C (77F) set in 1958. The forecast high on Tuesday is 26C (79F).  As the warm front moves north today, it will encounter a gusty northeast wind and stubborn cold air at the surface here in southern Quebec. This may slow the warming trend a little, and also deliver some showers and perhaps scattered thunderstorm into Tuesday. The warm air will be with us for at least 48 hours before a strong cold front arrives on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Michael
Complicating the forecast a touch will be the remains of soon-to-be hurricane Michael. Tropical storm Micheal is located about 115km south of the western tip of Cuba early Monday morning, with 110km/h (70 mph) winds. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane today, and approach the Florida panhandle on Wednesday. Micheal is expected to strengthen into as strong hurricane and could produce major impacts along the Florida gulf coast. Once inland, forecasters expect the storm to move into the water-logged Carolina's before approaching southern New England late in the week. Michael will likely send a surge of moisture into the cold front the is expected in southern Quebec on Thursday. We could be looking at very heavy rain and thunderstorms in Montreal. By Friday. much colder air will return to Montreal along with clearing skies and the risk of frost into the weekend.

So keep the shorts, winter coats and umbrellas handy, and prepare yourself for wild, changeable weather this week in the St. Lawrence Valley.