White Christmas for Montreal in serious jeopardy

After the mild weather of last weekend in Montreal, there is not much snow left on the ground for the holiday season.

If snow for the Christmas season is your thing, you may be out of luck. A sharp warming trend is underway across southern Quebec, which will be be briefly interrupted through the middle of the work week, before returning in time for the weekend. A cold front is in the process of crossing the St. Lawrence Valley late Monday, accompanied by scattered snow showers. A dusting of snow to perhaps a centimetre or two locally is possible. Temperatures will drop quickly tonight into the minus teens in Montreal, before recovering up to -7C (19F) on Tuesday. High pressure will crest over the region late Tuesday, with another very cold night on tap. On Wednesday, the warming trend will begin, with temperatures heading towards the freezing point and well above by Friday.

Strengthening low pressure is forecast to approach the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday, with rainy and windy weather expected across the region. The rain could be heavy at times, with up to 25mm possible. Needless to say, the rain, along with high temperatures above 5C (41F), will remove any evidence of snow that we currently have in the city. Once the system moves to our east on Saturday, cooler air will filter into southern Quebec, changing any leftover rain to flurries. Only a dusting in anticipated at this time leading up to and including Christmas Day. Colder temperatures will return for the holiday period, but no major storms are on the horizon at this time.

If you thought the number of green Christmases was on the rise in recent years you would be correct. According to Environment Canada data, Montreal had an 85% chance of a white Christmas between 1965 and 1984. During that period, the average amount of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, was 17cm. Since then, the chance of snow on the ground Christmas day has dropped to 70% in Montreal, with an average of only 8cm on the ground. From 1955 to 1985, Montreal recorded six green Christmas Days. From 1986 through 2017, nine green Christmases occurred. Environment Canada defines a white Christmas, as 2cm of more of snow on the ground as of 7am December 25.

As a child of the 70's, I was accustomed to plenty of snowy, cold weather during the holidays. It was a great time to be a kid growing up in Montreal.