Powerful hurricane Dorian threatens Bahamas and Florida

A stunning infrared image of hurricane Dorian early Saturday morning. Dorian was located 755 km east of the Florida coast at 5am. (Tropical Tidbits)

Early Saturday morning, powerful category 4 hurricane Dorian was located 755 km east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The storm was in a very favorable environment to maintain the current strength or perhaps even grow slightly. Winds were measured at 220km/h (140 mph) with higher gusts. Dorian was moving west northwest at 20km/h.

Developments over the last 24 hours have included a hurricane warning for the northwest Bahamas, as well as mandatory evacuations of the barrier islands of Brevard County, Florida. Some coastal communities in Florida have also issued voluntary evacuations for those who wish to leave early. There has been a run on water and gas in south Florida, and those items are in short supply. Portions of the Florida coast may see a hurricane watch issued some time Saturday.

As far as the future of Dorian goes, the path is not so clear. The storm is forecast to slow to a crawl as it approaches the Bahamas, thus prolonging the devastating impacts for that region. Dorian may take the entire weekend to clear the Bahamas before approaching the Florida coast late Labour Day Monday or Tuesday. A strong ridge of high pressure that has been forcing Dorian west, may begin to erode allowing the storm to turn towards the north. Some computer models now have the hurricane remaining off the Florida coast and moving north into South Carolina before impacting the Outer Banks of North Carolina. NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Dorian several times Saturday, relaying vital information to help with the forecast track.

Dorian remains a very dangerous storm, posing several widespread threats from The Bahamas to Florida and north towards Virginia.

Strengthening hurricane Dorian takes aim at south Florida

A visible satellite image of a strengthening hurricane Dorian, located east of the Bahamas on Friday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane Dorian now a major category 3 storm.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to become a powerful category 4 storm over the Labour Day weekend while crossing the northwest Bahamas on the way to south Florida. Dorian was located 1000 km east of West Palm Beach, Florida at 2pm Friday, with 185km/h (115 mph) winds. The hurricane was moving northwest at 17km/h. Dorian will be in an ideal environment for strengthening over the next 48 hours, with forecasters expecting a major hurricane at landfall. Water temperatures are very warm in this part of the Atlantic Ocean and wind shear aloft, which can tear apart storms, is expected to diminish.

So far the damage from Dorian has been minor, with mostly flooding and power outages reported in the Virgin Islands. That may change for Florida and the Bahamas as the storm begins to rapidly intensify. (bvitraveller.com)

The big question is where is Dorian going? The forecast has become more complicated over the past 12 hours, with models expecting the storm to slow to a crawl as it approaches the Florida coast. A slow storm at landfall is bad news. This will prolong the heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf. A long duration onshore flow will lead to significant coastal flooding. Dorian is expected to slowly move into Florida by Labour Day, before turning northward and moving into Georgia and the Carolinas. Dorian will impact the southeast US from late this weekend well into next week. A state of emergency has been declared in Florida and Georgia, with preparations well underway.

I will continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, providing updates via my Valley Weather Blog as well as at The Suburban Weather Page.  For the most complete and accurate tracking information, you can visit the National Hurricane Center website.

On a personal note, September 2019 marks 40 consecutive years that I have been tracking Atlantic Hurricanes, starting with Hurricane David in 1979.

Tropical Atlantic heating up

A NOAA GEOCOLOR image of Tropical Storm Dorian in the US Virgin Islands early Wednesday morning. The storm will likely reach hurricane status today before approaching Puerto Rico later today. The system may impact Florida or the US southeast by the weekend.

As a kid growing up, Labour Day meant a few things to me. There was the end of summer and back to school, a moment I despised, I am after all a huge fan of summer, always have been, the Jerry Lewis Labour Day Telethon, which ran for decades, and of course tracking hurricanes. It seems the Labour Day long weekend and hurricanes go hand in hand. I have been tracking the storms since 1979, and rarely a year goes by without a named storm to end the summer. We are in the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, so it is no surprise that we are dealing with two storms as we end August.

Tropical storm Dorian, the more dangerous of the two systems, is located 140km southeast of St Croix in the US Virgin Islands early Wednesday morning. The storm is moving northwest at 20km/h, heading towards Puerto Rico. Winds are gusting to 60mph (95km/h), with some strengthening forecast today. Dorian is expected to become a hurricane as the system moves near Puerto Rico. By the upcoming weekend, the storm will be approaching the northwest Bahamas and the central Florida coast, likely as a hurricane. All interests form the Carolinas into Florida and the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

Meanwhile further north, Tropical depression Erin has developed about 430 km east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Erin is a weak system located within a more harsh environment. Erin has 55km/h winds and is forecast to strengthen while moving northeast today. The storm will approach the Nova Scotia coast by late Thursday as a post-tropical system, with gusty winds and heavy rain. Weather warnings will likely be required for a portion of Atlantic Canada by later today.

Music, peace, love and the weather - Woodstock 1969

Max Yasgur's dairy farm near Bethel, New York became a sea of deep mud after thunderstorms rolled across The Woodstock Music and Art Fair on Sunday, August 17, 1969. (AccuWeather.com) 

Today marks the 50th anniversary of The Woodstock Music and Art Fair in upstate New York.

Starting Friday, August 15, 1969, the residents of the small Catskill village of Bethel in Sullivan County, New York had no idea what hit them. A storm of some 400,000 young adults descended on the village, White Lake and Max Yasgur's dairy farm for what would be, arguably, the largest concert in history.

The Woodstock Music Festival, held August 15 to 18, 1969, was a gathering of a generation focused on peace, love, music and united in their disapproval of government and the Vietnam War. Performers included Jefferson Airplane, Joan Baez, Santana, The Who, Crosby Stills and Nash, Jimi Hendrix and Janis Joplin to name just a few. Some of the performances remain legendary. I can't get White Rabbit out of my head after seeing footage recently. But it was the huge crowds, traffic jams and the weather that dominated the weekend headlines. Expecting around 100,000 to attend, organizers were plagued with problems from the start, including a late venue change, a shortage of food and major sanitation issues. Roads to the site were congested beyond words, with most attending forced to walk to White Lake. Yasgar's farm was just too large to enforce ticket sales, so the venue became wide open to anyone who wished to attend. And attend they did.

Organizers were challenged by major problems from the start, but somehow managed to carry off the event with little violence, this despite a lack of food, bathrooms and an excess of drugs. The Town of Bethel was expecting less than 50,000 to attend. In the end, crowd estimates were between 400,000 and 500,000 for the four days.

The Weather
The weather started off perfect, sunny and warm on August 15, but rain quickly became a major issue. We have all seen the famous pictures of attendees frolicking in deep mud. The concert was only scheduled to run Friday through Sunday, but carried over into Monday due to lengthy delays caused by thunderstorms.

The weather in the region is very similar to that of southern Quebec. Bethel is located about 540 kilometres south of Montreal. August is typically a warm and humid month, with frequent showers and thunderstorms. August 1969 was no exception. The weekend was relatively mild with daytime highs near Yasgur's farm ranging from 26C to 28C (79F to 83F). Overnight lows started quite cool, 12C (54F) on August 15th, but warmed to 18C (64F) by Monday morning. The temperatures were not the story. Day 1 was dry, but low clouds, drizzle and showers were reported on Saturday. In between the showers were peaks of sunshine, along with very warm and muggy conditions.

For comparison, Montreal's high temperatures that weekend were 31C, 32C, 28C and 25C respectively from August 15 to 18. We also had a major thunderstorm on August 18, that dumped 46.7mm of rain on the city.

Rain equals mud
On Sunday, just shortly after Joe Cocker finished his performance, a large thunderstorm swept across White Lake and Bethel, dumping over 25mm (1 inch) of rain near the venue. There was wild lightning and strong winds. Organizers were forced to cover precious electronic equipment and move people off the stage and the huge metal lighting towers that surrounded it. Yasgur's fields were transformed into a sea of mud and subsequently destroyed by the huge crowds. As with the precipitation on Saturday, the storms delayed the performances until at least 6:30pm. The damp, muddy conditions thinned the crowds a touch, as the music continued throughout the night. Monday dawned partly cloudy, as Jimi Hendrix belted out the Star-Spangled Banner before Woodstock drew to a close.

It would have been a miracle for the entire weekend to be rain-free. It is very rare here in southern Quebec and across the border in upstate New York State to have consecutive dry days in August.

Hurricane Camille quickly shifted media attention away from Woodstock and Upstate New York and down to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The storm levelled the region on the evening of August 17-18, 1969. Camille, and later Katrina in 2005, remain the benchmark storms for the US. (extremeplanet.me)

Hurricane Camille
Another historic event quickly drew attention away from Woodstock late in the weekend. Hurricane Camille plowed into the Mississippi Gulf Coast in the early morning hours of August 18. The compact but powerful category 5 hurricane moved inland near Waveland, Mississippi with 175mph winds and a storm surge of 24 feet. Camille was the benchmark storm that all other were compared to in the Atlantic basin until Katrina in 2005. Camille remains the second-strongest storm on record to impact the United States, and was responsible for 259 deaths and $1.43 billion in damages. Large portions of the Mississippi coast were destroyed beyond recognition. The storm then swept north into Virginia, generating catastrophic flash flooding and claiming more lives.