Hurricane Isaias heads for south Florida

The path of Hurricane Isaias, will take the system from the Bahamas into south Florida this weekend, and eventually up the eastern seaboard towards New England. (NHC)

Hurricane Isaias, the 9th tropical system of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, is moving across the central Bahamas early Saturday morning. The storm is located 125 km south, southeast of Nassau, moving northwest at 19km/h. Winds in the hurricane are gusting over 140km/h.

Isaias is expected to maintain hurricane strength as the system approaches the south Florida coast late Saturday or early Sunday. At this time, the center is expected to remain slightly offshore, with the most intense weather perhaps remaining over the Atlantic. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida coast from Boca Raton to Volusia County. Winds of at least tropical storm force 39mph (62km/h) are expected across much of eastern Florida later today. Even if the center remains offshore, heavy rainfall, in excess of 150mm is possible along the east coast of Florida through Sunday. A storm surge of up to 4 feet is also possible along the path of Isaias.

All interests along the entire east coast as far north as New England are advised to monitor Isaias. The storm will likely impact the Carolina's by Tuesday. Evacuations have been ordered for Ocracoke Island along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which was devastated by Hurricane Dorion last September. 

By Wednesday, a weakening Isaias should be providing some decent rainfall to southern and central New England and eventually Atlantic Canada. At this time, only a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are expected for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley from Isaias.

Strengthening hurricane Dorian takes aim at south Florida

A visible satellite image of a strengthening hurricane Dorian, located east of the Bahamas on Friday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane Dorian now a major category 3 storm.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to become a powerful category 4 storm over the Labour Day weekend while crossing the northwest Bahamas on the way to south Florida. Dorian was located 1000 km east of West Palm Beach, Florida at 2pm Friday, with 185km/h (115 mph) winds. The hurricane was moving northwest at 17km/h. Dorian will be in an ideal environment for strengthening over the next 48 hours, with forecasters expecting a major hurricane at landfall. Water temperatures are very warm in this part of the Atlantic Ocean and wind shear aloft, which can tear apart storms, is expected to diminish.

So far the damage from Dorian has been minor, with mostly flooding and power outages reported in the Virgin Islands. That may change for Florida and the Bahamas as the storm begins to rapidly intensify. (bvitraveller.com)

The big question is where is Dorian going? The forecast has become more complicated over the past 12 hours, with models expecting the storm to slow to a crawl as it approaches the Florida coast. A slow storm at landfall is bad news. This will prolong the heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf. A long duration onshore flow will lead to significant coastal flooding. Dorian is expected to slowly move into Florida by Labour Day, before turning northward and moving into Georgia and the Carolinas. Dorian will impact the southeast US from late this weekend well into next week. A state of emergency has been declared in Florida and Georgia, with preparations well underway.

I will continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, providing updates via my Valley Weather Blog as well as at The Suburban Weather Page.  For the most complete and accurate tracking information, you can visit the National Hurricane Center website.

On a personal note, September 2019 marks 40 consecutive years that I have been tracking Atlantic Hurricanes, starting with Hurricane David in 1979.

Irma forces mass evacuations along the Florida coast

A sign of the times as millions of Florida residents are fleeing inland in advance of Hurricane Irma. (USA Today Photo)

Over one million residents are heading inland along the Florida and Georgia coastlines in advance of deadly hurricane Irma. As of 8am Friday morning, Irma was located 450 miles (720km) southeast of Miami, moving west northwest at 16mph (26km/h). Irma has weakened slightly to a category 4 storm, with winds of 150mph (240km/h). Irma however remains a large and powerful hurricane capable of major damage. Residents of south Florida, including Monroe, Dade and Broward counties, have been fleeing northward, jamming interstates and creating a run on gas and water. Fuel tankers were escorted by Florida State Troopers on Thursday, in an effort to alleviate the shortage. Over 50 percent of the gas stations in Metro Dade reported major shortages, or no gas at all.

Congestion on US 1 in the Florida Keys ahead of Irma. (Miami Herald Photo)

Irma is forecast to approach the southeast coast of Florida late Saturday or early Sunday, possibly making a direct hit on Miami and its 6 million residents. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet is possible in the low-lying Florida Keys. The storm surge is a dome of water generated by the storm, preceding it into the coastline. Storm surge flooding is the deadliest component of most hurricanes, reaching in some cases over 20 feet. Waves on top of the surge can demolish homes and destroy infrastructure. The hurricane is expected to move from south to north across the entire state of Florida over the weekend, before moving into Georgia and the Carolina's. Irma's wind field is massive, with tropical storm force winds extending more than 185 miles (295km) from the center of the storm. Damaging winds are expected to impact the entire state of Florida. Federal and State resources have been mobilized in advance of the hurricane, staging in various sections of the state and neighboring Alabama. Meanwhile, relief efforts are in full force across the Caribbean, where several islands were leveled by Irma. The death toll is at 20 as of Friday afternoon.

Hurricane Matthew crawls into the Carolinas

Happy Thanksgiving! Smoke Meat Pete on L'Ile Perrot decorated for the season during Friday's spectacular weather. (ValleyWeather Photo)

Hurricane Matthew has been the focus of my columns this past week, and as a result I have been a little negligent on the home front. I have a preoccupation with hurricanes that goes back decades. Despite the rain this morning in southern Quebec, our weather continues to be warm and dry. Rainfall since late August is running at less than 50 percent of the normal. Temperatures have continued to be well above normal, including 25C (77F) on Friday. A cold front today is producing showers that will continue into Saturday afternoon. Noticeably cooler air arrives for Sunday and Thanksgiving Day, with temperatures closer to the normal high/low of 14C and 4C.

Twitter@JimCantore

Damage was extensive from Hurricane Matthew in the Daytona Beach area as well as northeast Florida. (TWC/AP Photo)

Hurricane Matthew
Hurricane Matthew's death toll continues to rise sharply with each passing hour. The storm is responsible for over 900 fatalities as of Saturday morning, including 4 in the US. Hard hit Haiti is reeling from torrential rains and mudslides, after a direct hit from Matthew. Florida has reported significant damage, especially along the northeast coast. The eye of the storm remained offshore this morning, but a tremendous surge of water has produced record flooding in some coastal locations. This morning a weakening Matthew, with 85 mph winds, is located 20 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. The storm surge continues to be the big story, with 5 to 7 feet of water flowing into the South Carolina coast. Surge flooding and torrential rains will move into North Carolina as the day progresses. Over 1 million southeast US residents are without power this morning. Numerous coastal roads including the A1A in Daytona Beach, have been heavily damaged. South Florida escaped the worst of the storm.

One last check of the beach, before the storm surge inundated the coast at Jacksonville, Florida (AP Photo)

Hermine expected to batter US east coast for days

Hurricane Hermine caused major damage along the Florida Gulf Coast Friday morning before moving north into the Carolinas. (TWC/Getty Images)

Tropical Storm Hermine is going to be kept at bay to our south this weekend, by strong high pressure centered over Quebec. That high pressure will provide sunny, tranquil weather for southern Quebec and northern New England. Further south along the southern New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts, it will be a very different story.

This morning, Hermine is located 60 miles west northwest of Hatteras, North Carolina. The Outer Banks took a beating overnight, with heavy rain, in excess of 125mm (5 inches), as well as 60 mph winds and pounding surf. A tornado was reported on Hatteras Island, damaging a campground with minor injuries reported. From Florida to Virginia, hundreds of thousands are without power. So far one fatality has been reported from Hermine. Tropical storm Hermine is expected to move off the coast back into the open waters of the Atlantic later today. The storm will undergo some rather technical transformations over the next 24 hours, however she will remain a very dangerous storm. With the lessons learned from Hurricane Sandy, the National Hurricane Center will continue to provide updates on the storm, regardless of whether she is tropical, post-tropical or extra-tropical.

The projected track of Hermine has her stalling off the Jersey Shore this weekend. (NHC)

Call her what you want, the coast from Delaware to Long Island will be hammered for days during successive high tide cycles. The fear is for Sandy-like damage to coastal infrastructure in many locations. This holds especially true for the Jersey Shore. The storm will meander off the coast through at least Tuesday and perhaps longer before being swept out to sea.

 I will provide frequent updates on Hermine throughout the holiday weekend via twitter @valleyweather2 and this blog. Stay safe.