Strengthening hurricane Dorian takes aim at south Florida

A visible satellite image of a strengthening hurricane Dorian, located east of the Bahamas on Friday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Hurricane Dorian now a major category 3 storm.

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to become a powerful category 4 storm over the Labour Day weekend while crossing the northwest Bahamas on the way to south Florida. Dorian was located 1000 km east of West Palm Beach, Florida at 2pm Friday, with 185km/h (115 mph) winds. The hurricane was moving northwest at 17km/h. Dorian will be in an ideal environment for strengthening over the next 48 hours, with forecasters expecting a major hurricane at landfall. Water temperatures are very warm in this part of the Atlantic Ocean and wind shear aloft, which can tear apart storms, is expected to diminish.

So far the damage from Dorian has been minor, with mostly flooding and power outages reported in the Virgin Islands. That may change for Florida and the Bahamas as the storm begins to rapidly intensify. (bvitraveller.com)

The big question is where is Dorian going? The forecast has become more complicated over the past 12 hours, with models expecting the storm to slow to a crawl as it approaches the Florida coast. A slow storm at landfall is bad news. This will prolong the heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf. A long duration onshore flow will lead to significant coastal flooding. Dorian is expected to slowly move into Florida by Labour Day, before turning northward and moving into Georgia and the Carolinas. Dorian will impact the southeast US from late this weekend well into next week. A state of emergency has been declared in Florida and Georgia, with preparations well underway.

I will continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, providing updates via my Valley Weather Blog as well as at The Suburban Weather Page.  For the most complete and accurate tracking information, you can visit the National Hurricane Center website.

On a personal note, September 2019 marks 40 consecutive years that I have been tracking Atlantic Hurricanes, starting with Hurricane David in 1979.

Tropical Atlantic heating up

A NOAA GEOCOLOR image of Tropical Storm Dorian in the US Virgin Islands early Wednesday morning. The storm will likely reach hurricane status today before approaching Puerto Rico later today. The system may impact Florida or the US southeast by the weekend.

As a kid growing up, Labour Day meant a few things to me. There was the end of summer and back to school, a moment I despised, I am after all a huge fan of summer, always have been, the Jerry Lewis Labour Day Telethon, which ran for decades, and of course tracking hurricanes. It seems the Labour Day long weekend and hurricanes go hand in hand. I have been tracking the storms since 1979, and rarely a year goes by without a named storm to end the summer. We are in the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, so it is no surprise that we are dealing with two storms as we end August.

Tropical storm Dorian, the more dangerous of the two systems, is located 140km southeast of St Croix in the US Virgin Islands early Wednesday morning. The storm is moving northwest at 20km/h, heading towards Puerto Rico. Winds are gusting to 60mph (95km/h), with some strengthening forecast today. Dorian is expected to become a hurricane as the system moves near Puerto Rico. By the upcoming weekend, the storm will be approaching the northwest Bahamas and the central Florida coast, likely as a hurricane. All interests form the Carolinas into Florida and the Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

Meanwhile further north, Tropical depression Erin has developed about 430 km east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Erin is a weak system located within a more harsh environment. Erin has 55km/h winds and is forecast to strengthen while moving northeast today. The storm will approach the Nova Scotia coast by late Thursday as a post-tropical system, with gusty winds and heavy rain. Weather warnings will likely be required for a portion of Atlantic Canada by later today.