Thursday, August 27, 2020

Hurricane Laura devastates Lake Charles, Louisiana

Ferocious winds have produced widespread damage in Lake Charles, Louisiana overnight. Laura made landfall as a powerful category 4 hurricane near Cameron. (CNN)

One of the strongest hurricanes to impact Louisiana in the modern era, smashed into Cameron parish at 1 am central time Thursday morning. The category 4 storm with 240 km/h (150 mph) winds caused widespread devastation in the community of Lake Charles. Wind gust over 200km/h were reported, with sustained winds of up to 160km/h for several hours. The result is the complete failure of many structures, as well as office buildings with every window punched out.

I watched the coverage of Laura overnight from Lake Charles, provided by storm chaser Reed Timmer and his team. Laura was a fierce, fast-moving hurricane, with relentless powerful winds tearing apart structures. Power lines and trees are spread across just about every roadway in Lake Charles. Across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, over 700,000 homes and businesses are without power Thursday, in sweltering heat and humidity.

National Weather Service radar from Lake Charles showing the eye of Laura crossing the coast at 1AM Thursday morning. Later as the storm approached Lake Charles, the radar was destroyed. (NWS)

So far three US fatalities have been reported as a result of Laura, from trees falling on homes. I have found very little information on Cameron, where Laura made landfall. It is estimated that the storm surge near Cameron was around 10 feet, less than expected, but still a significant amount of water. Search and rescue crews and First Responders are still assessing the damage along the coast. Elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas, surge flooding did occur, but was less severe than expected.

As of noon, Laura had been downgraded to a tropical storm, loosing steam as all storms do when the move inland. Laura is racing off to the north at 24km/h, expected to produce strong winds, torrential rain and isolated tornadoes into portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Laura is then expected to move across the middle Atlantic region by the weekend. 

ATLANTIC CANADA IMPACTS POSSIBLE

Once Laura moves offshore, the storm main gain some strength and threaten Nova Scotia and Newfoundland by early next week, with gale force winds and heavy rainfall. The progress of what is left of Laura will need to be watched closely by Atlantic Canada residents.

A Cameron Parish Sheriff Deputy braves the outer bands of Laura on Wednesday afternoon. (CNN/AP)


Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Dangerous hurricane Laura rapidly strengthening

Satellite image of extremely dangerous hurricane Laura located over the central Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday morning. Laura is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane today before moving inland over extreme southwest Louisiana tonight. (NOAA)

Hurricane Laura is expected to deepen rapidly today into a monster category 4 hurricane as the storm approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Early Wednesday morning, the center of Laura was located 540 km southeast of Galveston, Texas, moving northwest at 24km/h. Peak winds overnight have increased to 175km/h (110mph). Further intensification is likely today as Laura moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  

Widespread hurricane and storm warnings are now in effect from the upper Texas coast eastward towards Mississippi.

Laura is forecast to make landfall late this evening or overnight, with catastrophic storm surge expected to the right of where the center comes onshore. A surge of 12-15 feet is forecast along the southwest Louisiana coast, including low-lying Cameron Parish. Preparations and evacuations are being rushed to completion this morning. Tropical storm force winds and water will begin arriving at the coast early this afternoon.

Hurricane hunter aircraft have reported that Laura has become a larger storm overnight, with hurricane and tropical storm winds extending outward far from the center of the storm. Strong winds, torrential rain and flash flooding will impact a large portion of Texas and Louisiana including metro Houston tonight and Thursday. Those conditions will spread into northern Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas on Friday.

I will post further updates on hurricane Laura later today.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Twin storms threaten the US Gulf Coast

A NOAA satellite image showing the location of two tropical storms expected to impact the US Gulf Coast during the upcoming week. (NHC)

It has already been a record-breaking tropical season in the Atlantic Basin, and we are just entering the peak portion of the year. From mid-August through late September is usually when the tropics really begin to heat up. Tonight we have two tropical storms, Laura and Marco in the Caribbean Sea. On average, the M named storm does not come along until late October.

Tropical Storm Marco

Let's start with the western most storm Marco. Tropical storm Marco late this afternoon was about 50 miles (80 km) west of the western tip of Cuba, with 65 mph (104 km/h) winds. Marco has surprised everyone today by remaining over open water and splitting the Yucatan and Cuban coasts. Originally forecasters believed Marco would cross the Yucatan, and take a run at the Texas coast. It now appears the storm will head much further east, towards the mouth of the Mississippi River. Marco is expected to encounter upper level wind shear over the next 24 hours and may weaken somewhat. Marco may still reorganize and strengthen in time to arrive at the Louisiana coast as a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday. A hurricane watch has already been posted from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. A state of emergency has been declared across the region, and residents are being urged to prepare now.

Tropical Storm Laura

Tropical storm Laura is a compact system, located over Puerto Rico late Saturday. Laura has 50 mph (80 km/h) winds, and is producing very heavy rainfall, flooding and mudslides over portions of Puerto Rico and neighbouring Hispaniola. Laura is forecast to eventually head northwest across Cuba and the Florida Keys and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Monday. As early as Wednesday, Laura will be threatening the same coastline that was hit by Marco on Monday. Forecasters expect Laura to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall on Wednesday.

This is a very rare event to have two tropical systems making landfall along the same coast, within miles of each other, in under 48 hours. This will certainly be an interesting if not historic weather week.

Monday, August 17, 2020

Slightly cooler weather week ahead for southern Quebec

A rare fire tornado erupts along the edge of the Loyalton Fire in Lassen County, California on Saturday. (Photo by Katelynn Hewlett via social media)

As I am writing this blog update, light to moderate rain is falling outside my office window in Saint Laurent. Since about 9:30am, nearly 20mm has fallen already in the west end of the city. The rain is associated with an extremely slow moving cold front that is draped across eastern Ontario. The front and a secondary trough will take the better part of the next 24 hours to clear the region. Until then we can expect a very muggy airmass, with temperatures in the middle 20s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail as well, with the bulk of the precipitation occurring Monday morning and again Tuesday afternoon.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will push into the region. The weather will not be cold, but will feel very refreshing after the prolonged heat this summer. The pleasant weather will prevail to end the week, unfortunately another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible by the upcoming weekend. 

The sun peeks through the clouds on another humid August afternoon in Montreal. The summer of 2020 will likely be one of the warmest on record for the city, with a record-setting 24 days over 30C (86F) already and another 9 days over 29C (85F). (ValleyWeather Photo)

August has featured just one day of 30C weather to date in Montreal, bringing the total to a record-breaking 24 days since late May. If you add the 9 days where the temperature fell just short of that mark, between 29C and 29.9C, nearly one third of the summer has had high temperatures over 85F in Montreal.

It is now western Canada's turn to experience high heat. A strong ridge of high pressure over Utah, is pumping hot air from Arizona and California, northward into BC and Alberta. Strong south winds are acting like a blast furnace, with daily highs soaring into the upper 30s and 40s on Sunday. Over 20 record highs were broken in BC and Alberta on Sunday. The hot spot was Lytton, B.C. where the temperature reached a scorching 41.2C (106F). The hot weather is expected to persist most of the upcoming week from BC to Saskatchewan. 

The weather was much the same south of the border from the Pacific Northwest south towards the Mexican border. In southern California and Arizona, highs in some locations have reached the upper 40s (110-115F). The hot, dry weather is fuelling massive forest fires across western North America. In B.C., 24 active fires are burning, an increase of 10 in just the last 24 hours. One of the largest fires in recent history is burning in Colorado, west of Denver. In Lassen County, California, nearly 10,000 acres have burned in the Hog Fire. The raging infernos produced a rare fire tornado in the Loyalton fire complex close to the Nevada border on Saturday. 

The heatwave is expected to persist for the entire upcoming week across the west, with only some slight relief occurring along the Canadian border.

Monday, August 10, 2020

Another heat warning in effect for Montreal and southern Quebec

Another stretch of hot and humid weather is on tap for metro Montreal this week, in what is quickly becoming one of the warmest summers ever recorded in the city.

Heat warning posted for southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, including metro Montreal and Ottawa.

I have lost count, but we have had at least a half dozen or so heat warnings that have been issued for Montreal this summer. We have another in effect currently, as temperatures are expected to rise into the low 30s Monday and Tuesday, along with elevated humidity levels. The humidex is forecast to approach 40C through the start of the week.

Once the fog and low clouds burn off Monday morning, we are looking at warm and humid weather through early Wednesday, with the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms on the increase. Less humid weather should return by Wednesday afternoon, bit temperatures will remain warm.

This warm snap comes on the heels of the hottest July on record for Montreal. The average for the month was a sultry 24.3C (75.7F), the normal should be 21.2C(70.1F). The city had 14 daily highs in excess of 30C (86F) with a maximum reading of 36.1C (97F). The overnight periods were extremely warm, with 13 daily lows remaining above 20C (68F) and 28 of the 31days over 16C (60F). It was a similar story across eastern North America, with many cities either reporting their warmest July or in the top 5 at the very least. Burlington, Vermont had it warmest month ever on record at 24.9C (76.9F), with their data dating back to 1892. 

An incredible photo of the massive EF-2 tornado that struck near Scarth, Manitoba on Friday evening. The powerful storm travelled at least 9km across the area south of Virden. Local RCMP have sadly confirmed two fatalities as a result of the tornado.
(PHOTO: Manitoba Storm Chasers)

Massive deadly Manitoba tornado

A rare EF-2 tornado, with winds of up to 190km/h occurred Friday evening near the small town of Scarth south of Virden in southwest Manitoba. Sadly 2 teens were killed after the violent storm tossed their truck off the highway.  There was an additional injury reported by the RCMP. The storm also produced damage to several farms as well as power lines and trees. According to The Northern Tornadoes Project, the tornado had a preliminary track length of 9.35 km long and 740 metres wide.

The complex of thunderstorms produced several tornadoes Friday evening across southeast Saskatchewan, Manitoba and North Dakota. There was also large hail reported in the region. Canada has had a sharp increase in tornadic activity this summer across Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec, likely due to the hot and humid weather that has prevailed. The country averages 62 tornadoes for the entire year, and we are quickly closing in on that number with at least 52 to date.

Wednesday, August 05, 2020

Over 45,000 lose power in Quebec from Isaias

Widespread damage and power outages occurred as a result of tropical storm Isaias along the entire east coast from North Carolina to southern Quebec. A US postal worker was lucky to escape with his life after a massive tree crushed his delivery vehicle on Tuesday in northern New Jersey. (CBS)
Tropical storm Isaias is gone, dissipating well northeast of Quebec City on Wednesday. All that is left behind here in Montreal, are some ragged dark clouds, isolated showers and gusty winds. The storm was disruptive on Tuesday to say the very least. After making landfall near Oak Island, North Carolina Monday night, Isaias raced northeast at lightning speed arriving in southern Quebec just before midnight on Tuesday, having traveled over 1500km in about 24 hours.

Along the way, Isaias dumped torrential rain, spawned dozens of tornadoes and killed at least 6 people in the US. Power outages were numerous across the eastern seaboard, rivalling those from superstorm Sandy back in 2012. Nearly 4 million residents were in the dark at the height of the storm on Tuesday. That number is slowly coming down today. There was major damage to homes and infrastructure in coastal North Carolina at the point of landfall, as well as scattered significant damage from tornadoes in several states including Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware and Virginia. On Mount Washington in northern New Hampshire, a wind gust to 236 km/h (147mph) was reported as the storm passed late Tuesday.

Strong winds pulled down trees in the Quebec City region on Tuesday, taking down power lines in the process. At the height of the storm, over 45,000 Hydro-Quebec subscribers were in the dark. (Radio Canada)
In southern Quebec, heavy rain fell most of the day, with 100mm (4 inches) falling in Trois Rivieres, 120mm in the Charlevoix region and 30 to 50mmm here in metro Montreal. There was some minor flooding observed, but thankfully nothing too serious. The strongest winds in Quebec were confined to a narrow swath across the Townships into Quebec City, where Winds gusted up to 90 km/h. Power was out to over 45,000 homes and businesses, mostly around Quebec City and points south to the US border. At 11:15 Wednesday morning, that number was down to 21,000.

In the wake of Isaias, much calmer weather will return to southern Quebec to end the work week, with sunshine and warm temperatures expected into the upcoming weekend.

Monday, August 03, 2020

Tropical Storm Isaias to move from the Carolinas to Quebec

A NOAA Satellite image of tropical storm Isaias nearing the South Carolina coast late Monday. The storm may reach hurricane strength of 75 mph just prior to landfall.

Tropical Storm Isaias was located 100km south, southeast of Charleston, South Carolina at 5pm Monday afternoon. The storm is forecast to make landfall late this evening very close to the North Carolina/South Carolina border, possibly as a Category 1 hurricane. Isaias is a strong tropical storm this evening, with 70mph (112km/h) winds and showing better organization that it has in some time. Heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding will impact a large swath of the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday.

The system will race northeast on Tuesday along the middle Atlantic coast and into New England. Isaias will then continue across New Hampshire and Vermont and likely into southeastern Quebec by early Wednesday morning.

Widespread weather warnings are in place along the entire projected path of the storm, for strong damaging winds, heavy tropical rain and storm surge. In southern Quebec, heavy rainfall warnings have been issued by Environment Canada for the Eastern Townships and Beauce, for up to 60mm of rain. The rain will likely fall in just a few hours on Tuesday evening, so flash flooding is possible. In Vermont and eastern New York, flash flood watches have been issued, with between 50-100mm (2-4 inches) of rain expected. A tropical storm watch is in effect for all of interior New Hampshire, with warnings along the coast. Winds may reach 80 to 100km/h in southern New Hampshire and Vermont.

The 5pm forecast track for Isaias, has the tropical storm moving from the Carolinas to southern Quebec over the next 36 hours.
Impacts in Montreal
Montreal will be on the western edge of the storm, with showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday, along with gusty winds of 20-40km/h. In other parts of Quebec, winds will gust up to 60km/h. In terms of rainfall, Montreal can expect another 25mm (1 inch) of rain from Isaias through early Wednesday. We can add that to the 39mm that fell in thunderstorms on Sunday. Any change in the forecast track would have an impact on the rain totals for Montreal.

Isaias managed to spare Florida, with the worst of the weather remaining offshore.

Isaias will continue to weaken slowly, while moving northeast into Labrador on Thursday.

Saturday, August 01, 2020

Hurricane Isaias heads for south Florida

The path of Hurricane Isaias, will take the system from the Bahamas into south Florida this weekend, and eventually up the eastern seaboard towards New England. (NHC)

Hurricane Isaias, the 9th tropical system of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, is moving across the central Bahamas early Saturday morning. The storm is located 125 km south, southeast of Nassau, moving northwest at 19km/h. Winds in the hurricane are gusting over 140km/h.

Isaias is expected to maintain hurricane strength as the system approaches the south Florida coast late Saturday or early Sunday. At this time, the center is expected to remain slightly offshore, with the most intense weather perhaps remaining over the Atlantic. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida coast from Boca Raton to Volusia County. Winds of at least tropical storm force 39mph (62km/h) are expected across much of eastern Florida later today. Even if the center remains offshore, heavy rainfall, in excess of 150mm is possible along the east coast of Florida through Sunday. A storm surge of up to 4 feet is also possible along the path of Isaias.

All interests along the entire east coast as far north as New England are advised to monitor Isaias. The storm will likely impact the Carolina's by Tuesday. Evacuations have been ordered for Ocracoke Island along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which was devastated by Hurricane Dorion last September. 

By Wednesday, a weakening Isaias should be providing some decent rainfall to southern and central New England and eventually Atlantic Canada. At this time, only a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are expected for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley from Isaias.