February has started off rather mild across southern Quebec, with only two days of below normal temperatures so far, and 5 days with temperature at or above the freezing point. This is a far cry from the frigid month of January, that featured 17 days colder than -20C (-4F) in Montreal, and a monthly average of only -13.5C (7.7F), 4 degrees below the long-term average. Snowfall was meager however as our rather tame winter moves along. Only 41cm fell at Trudeau Airport, the seasonal total sits at 94.8cm.
A series of weak systems will dominate the wether through Friday, with periods of showers or flurries and very mild temperatures. The high on both Thursday and Friday will approach 4C (40F). No significant accumulations are expected, but with nighttime temperatures at or slightly below freezing, there may be a few slick spots on area roads.
A strong cold front is forecast to cross the St. Lawrence Valley by midday Saturday, ushering in an arctic airmass to end the weekend. A period of gusty winds and perhaps some snow flurries is expected along the front. However the big news will be the drop in temperatures. The mercury in Montreal will be above freezing early Saturday morning, but plummet down to -22C (-8F) by Sunday morning. Both Sunday and Monday should be fair in Montreal, but frigid, with daytime highs around -15C (5F) and overnight lows in the low minus 20s. A slight breeze will only add to the cold.
Temperatures will moderate by the middle of next week, as another storm system moves across the Great Lakes and west of Montreal. It appears southern Quebec will be on the warm side of the storm, with a mix of snow and rain expected at this time.
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